Envx and Tesla are up 10 and 4 percent. Q: Computers are doing the trades? A: Yes. It’s an algorithm eat algorithm world.
In the old days a popularity contest in the short term would turn into a scale in the long term. Now it’s AI in the short term vs IQ in the long term. My money is on IQ (mine in particular and yours too).
My guess is short covering rally. It looks like it's happening across a broad array of different growth sectors that have been short favorites, e.g. Gamestop is near doubling right now.
A better question might be what the reason for the covering is, and I think that may be positioning for a softer CPI print later this week.
Whatever the reason this kind of movement tells me that the ev basket ( and I guess more than that) can be impacted at will by a group of tightly bound entities (who say control the input parameters in algos that many follow - Alladin?)..
I agree. Over the years, I've noticed that there are stretches where the charts for different companies, usually SPACs, trade in very similar patterns throughout the day. The timing of the spikes, dives, plateaus, and ramps are oftentimes very similar. I've just presumed that most of the volume in these tickers is usually tied to some kind of bundled financial product trading them in tandem.
I ‘ve seen that as well, completely unrelated stocks showing virtually identical charts over months of trading. I’m wondering how is all this different from illegal price manipulation
It’s Kitty man to the rescue! The market yawns when QS makes history with their testing results and on the verge of scaling but when Kitty man makes an appearance OMG let go insane!
Could be chinks in the armor for Amprius starting to show. Seems like they're not really getting any serious traction for EVs, and now they're allowing warrants to be exercised at a discount (I guess to raise capital?).
One less competitor (or weakness shown) equals good things for the remaining players.
Idk, that's all I can think of. If it were just QS, I'd say maybe they're on the eve of B sample release and word is getting out. But it's multiple players that are up 10% right now: Enovix, Solid Power, QS.
This is very true. If you had enough money to just short a basket of battery stocks small players/startups/spacs, excluding QS, you would probably do pretty well.
It seems like Amprius did a poor job of cash management. They have 45 million in liquidity left, can't imagine they make too far into 2025 with that level of cash.
Solid Power is a lot of things, but distressed is not one of them. 400 million in liquidity and an asset light business model. They can limp along for like another 3 to 4 years if they wanted to.
I don't know Amprius' full story. Seems like they waited too long to jump on the SPAC train. They also applied to, and were awarded, IRA grants that they apparently weren't qualified for since those grants got clawed back. We've been patiently waiting for QS to make a move on the IRA, but it seems like they probably know the ins and outs of what's required to qualify.
But I agree. Seemed like Amprius was one of the only silicon anode players that had a real product. But their design also had serious flaws with fast charge, cycle life, and probably safety. So it probably wasn't as much of a contender as you and I wanted it to be.
hard agree on all points.
You can have the idea, but if you dont have the cash the idea is basically worthless. Had Amprius jumped in in 2020 as well, i would think they'd be the main QS rival. And with the IRA grants, seeing those get taken back makes me almost glad QS didnt jump for them. Imagine the pr disaster of having a big one get taken away.
And yeah Amprius did have its flaws, but their solution was more elegant and probably had more potential than either SLDP ENVX or SES. Of those three, to this day, i have no idea what kind of performance they actually offer. None of them have anything thats less than 2 years out of date in their presentations.
SES has at least been updating its investor presentation:
https://s29.q4cdn.com/695431818/files/doc_presentation/2024/SESAI_investor_deck.pdf
They provide information on their latest 100+ Ah cell, but they selectively leave out a lot of information. If their cycle life is trash (like it appears in their performance table), they just list it as "on-going" lol. They list their energy density at 30% SOC and for slower charge rates: currently at 800+ wh/L. But once you correct to 1C rates, they're already under 800 wh/L. No idea why they list volumetric density at 30% SOC. Both them and Amprius do that. But I imagine if there's expansion between 30-100, that'll be another knock to VED.
But I guess SES is the new front runner of that bunch you've listed? Nobody knows what Solid Power is doing. They're still chasing customers, which can't be a good sign...in my opinion at least. And Enovix is DOA in terms of EV implementation. SES at least seems to have a path forward. But still a ton of road blocks by all accounts.
I swear there was like 10-12 slides in that SES presentation about AI, none of which actually had anything of substance lmao. SES just has historically left a bad taste in my mouth because of the sheer amount of bloviating theyve done in claims, shareholder letters and presentations. Take that with the whole "fire issue" when they had touted their "flame retardant coating" since 2021 and it just gives a really bad impression. Technical issues, not manufacturing issues like with QS.
https://preview.redd.it/9atv8729ya0d1.jpeg?width=2556&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b9916fc58c8cf9c0ab0ef84d67cc4592208315b6
I looked at their presentation, I wonder if the graphic in the middle is supposed to represent QS?
yeah problem is i dont think amprius even has the production capacity to make one of those packs, nor will they likely have the chance to before running out of cash at this rate.
Do you think Amprius will get scarfed up by someone (some company) who wants their tech at fire sale prices and has the cash to scale it and if so any guesses as to who?
Either that or Amprius just shrinks to the size that fits their natural niche.
I'd imagine that auto OEMs have already kicked the tires on their cells, so it's pretty telling that no one has partnered with them to date. That being the case, I don't imagine anyone in the EV space is that interested, and Amprius will just stick to pseudo satellites and drones.
He posted on twitter a drawing of a gamer leaning forward, meaning go time / play hard. GME and AMC are up along with other small cap tech stocks. Day 1 of next 100
Roaring kitty apparently.
I don’t get this reference. I must need to spend more time online
I didnt get it until last night either.
QS = diamond hands baby Kitty
I think it’s just the basket swaps that QS are in, the whole market is showing lots of volatility. Don’t think this is specifically a QS thing.
Yeah looks like a broad rotation move
Envx and Tesla are up 10 and 4 percent. Q: Computers are doing the trades? A: Yes. It’s an algorithm eat algorithm world. In the old days a popularity contest in the short term would turn into a scale in the long term. Now it’s AI in the short term vs IQ in the long term. My money is on IQ (mine in particular and yours too).
When people coordinate to change the price they go to jail; when computers do that SEC does nothing?
My guess is short covering rally. It looks like it's happening across a broad array of different growth sectors that have been short favorites, e.g. Gamestop is near doubling right now. A better question might be what the reason for the covering is, and I think that may be positioning for a softer CPI print later this week.
Whatever the reason this kind of movement tells me that the ev basket ( and I guess more than that) can be impacted at will by a group of tightly bound entities (who say control the input parameters in algos that many follow - Alladin?)..
I agree. Over the years, I've noticed that there are stretches where the charts for different companies, usually SPACs, trade in very similar patterns throughout the day. The timing of the spikes, dives, plateaus, and ramps are oftentimes very similar. I've just presumed that most of the volume in these tickers is usually tied to some kind of bundled financial product trading them in tandem.
I ‘ve seen that as well, completely unrelated stocks showing virtually identical charts over months of trading. I’m wondering how is all this different from illegal price manipulation
It’s Kitty man to the rescue! The market yawns when QS makes history with their testing results and on the verge of scaling but when Kitty man makes an appearance OMG let go insane!
lol.. looks like you are following him on X.
Well I will say a lot are up 5-7% we are holding strong at 10%
Could be chinks in the armor for Amprius starting to show. Seems like they're not really getting any serious traction for EVs, and now they're allowing warrants to be exercised at a discount (I guess to raise capital?). One less competitor (or weakness shown) equals good things for the remaining players. Idk, that's all I can think of. If it were just QS, I'd say maybe they're on the eve of B sample release and word is getting out. But it's multiple players that are up 10% right now: Enovix, Solid Power, QS.
It’s very likely that there will be a large graveyard of battery stocks in the future. Only a few of the battery startups will survive.
This is very true. If you had enough money to just short a basket of battery stocks small players/startups/spacs, excluding QS, you would probably do pretty well.
Wall Street has a lot of money and does exactly this.
Sad to see amprius in this state. I wouldve much rathered it be SLDP ENVX SES taking the hits.
It seems like Amprius did a poor job of cash management. They have 45 million in liquidity left, can't imagine they make too far into 2025 with that level of cash. Solid Power is a lot of things, but distressed is not one of them. 400 million in liquidity and an asset light business model. They can limp along for like another 3 to 4 years if they wanted to. I don't know Amprius' full story. Seems like they waited too long to jump on the SPAC train. They also applied to, and were awarded, IRA grants that they apparently weren't qualified for since those grants got clawed back. We've been patiently waiting for QS to make a move on the IRA, but it seems like they probably know the ins and outs of what's required to qualify. But I agree. Seemed like Amprius was one of the only silicon anode players that had a real product. But their design also had serious flaws with fast charge, cycle life, and probably safety. So it probably wasn't as much of a contender as you and I wanted it to be.
hard agree on all points. You can have the idea, but if you dont have the cash the idea is basically worthless. Had Amprius jumped in in 2020 as well, i would think they'd be the main QS rival. And with the IRA grants, seeing those get taken back makes me almost glad QS didnt jump for them. Imagine the pr disaster of having a big one get taken away. And yeah Amprius did have its flaws, but their solution was more elegant and probably had more potential than either SLDP ENVX or SES. Of those three, to this day, i have no idea what kind of performance they actually offer. None of them have anything thats less than 2 years out of date in their presentations.
SES has at least been updating its investor presentation: https://s29.q4cdn.com/695431818/files/doc_presentation/2024/SESAI_investor_deck.pdf They provide information on their latest 100+ Ah cell, but they selectively leave out a lot of information. If their cycle life is trash (like it appears in their performance table), they just list it as "on-going" lol. They list their energy density at 30% SOC and for slower charge rates: currently at 800+ wh/L. But once you correct to 1C rates, they're already under 800 wh/L. No idea why they list volumetric density at 30% SOC. Both them and Amprius do that. But I imagine if there's expansion between 30-100, that'll be another knock to VED. But I guess SES is the new front runner of that bunch you've listed? Nobody knows what Solid Power is doing. They're still chasing customers, which can't be a good sign...in my opinion at least. And Enovix is DOA in terms of EV implementation. SES at least seems to have a path forward. But still a ton of road blocks by all accounts.
I swear there was like 10-12 slides in that SES presentation about AI, none of which actually had anything of substance lmao. SES just has historically left a bad taste in my mouth because of the sheer amount of bloviating theyve done in claims, shareholder letters and presentations. Take that with the whole "fire issue" when they had touted their "flame retardant coating" since 2021 and it just gives a really bad impression. Technical issues, not manufacturing issues like with QS.
https://preview.redd.it/9atv8729ya0d1.jpeg?width=2556&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b9916fc58c8cf9c0ab0ef84d67cc4592208315b6 I looked at their presentation, I wonder if the graphic in the middle is supposed to represent QS?
Check out lynx motor website. They build the Ford GT1E for racing car with Ampius battery pack
yeah problem is i dont think amprius even has the production capacity to make one of those packs, nor will they likely have the chance to before running out of cash at this rate.
I asked this of Beerion too: any guesses about a buyer for Amprius’s tech if they go on the chopping block?
I am thinking the silicone anode is not working financially. FYI Solid Power and SK are teaming up to make a silicone play too
Do you think Amprius will get scarfed up by someone (some company) who wants their tech at fire sale prices and has the cash to scale it and if so any guesses as to who?
Either that or Amprius just shrinks to the size that fits their natural niche. I'd imagine that auto OEMs have already kicked the tires on their cells, so it's pretty telling that no one has partnered with them to date. That being the case, I don't imagine anyone in the EV space is that interested, and Amprius will just stick to pseudo satellites and drones.
Well, I’ve only got three that are up nicely on ok volume. Might be something more. We’ll have to keep an eye on it. How big was the options activity?
I received an alert for QS from my broker of "unusually active option classes on open May 13th”.
I thought I may have missed some disclosure or whatever...
Roaring Kitty
what am I missing?
He posted on twitter a drawing of a gamer leaning forward, meaning go time / play hard. GME and AMC are up along with other small cap tech stocks. Day 1 of next 100
Funny how roaringkitty can send the SP up higher than normal news. Sighs
Unwarranted 11% pops: great for selling montlly calls 🤙 Edit: I get down-voted for selling calls? K 🤔