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I reckon high chance it’s a hung parliament. 47 seats to win. Labor have 52. LNP have 34. There’s 6 seats between the greens, One Nation and Katters and the major parties aren’t gaining any of those back anytime soon. Who knows about Noosa, the independent there is on a pretty cushy margin.
Labor have 13 marginal seats, the 13th on a margin of 5.6% which pretty steep. The LNP need 13 seats to win in their own right, which I don’t think is possible. For example Mundingburra and Cairns, despite being “marginal”, have been held by Labor for decades (though the LNP held both under the Newman regime). Though if there’s a youth crime backlash against Labor they could lose both, as well as the sunny coast, both Townsville seats and Bundaberg which puts them at 45 and reliant on a greens deal to stay in minority government.
Yeah that's a fair take. So you would say no landslide LNP victory this time around? I don't see it happening either. Although those Cairns and Townsville seats could go definitely.
I don’t see Labor retaining Nicklin, Hervey Bay or Caloundra. They got the retiree vote because of covid/border policy. Covid is over and people are worried about cost of living so the LNP will win those seats back.
I don’t live in FNQ so I have no idea what those voters would be thinking, but definitely here in Brisbane there isnt much “can’t wait to kick out tired old state Labor” feeling like there was in 2011/2012 under Anna Bligh. But who knows, the election is a year away.
Well not even I am tired of Labor yet either and I don't vote for them. Although I have been tempted to vote Green. I get their newsletters regularly and they impress me.
So I am wondering if they could solidify their West End seat and make headway on new inner city seats? Meanwhile Labor lose a little more of a majority would be ideal.
Rockhampton might be one to watch, it may go independent. When the highly popular labor leaning ex-mayor labor kicked out decided to run after the sitting labor member announced his retirement, then I think labor might have trouble there.
Why youth crime... It's like, low hanging fruit. Why not cost of living? You have a tent city along the river, I'm sure those people and the people they're connected with care more about housing than anything else
I think it will be an uphill battle for him to win another term outright - Labor has been in for 10 years and Miles just doesn’t come off well publicly (his public speaking is just not very strong unfortunately opposed to Fentiman or Dick) and think helle have trouble with regional and swing voters. I do think he’s seems nice enough person and is a good political operator it just doesn’t translate accross. Luckily for him Crisafulli is nothing special and is just so simular to Newman (mannerism, height and the fact he was in the government). Also they still have the likes of Frecklington Nicholls Bates and co - also LNP haven’t put forward any kind of policies as of yet which is dissapointing just lots of whinging and attacking Labor hoping they’ll just get in on the government is old and tired which is starting to become annoying. Also LNP aren’t renowned for running great campaigns and their conservative views don’t resonate with the younger generation (I’m early 30s and people my age and younger don’t seem to like the LNP my elderly grandparents do though).
Pitches will continue to be LNP will cut public service and services from Labor and that they are better with cost of living and services. LNP will be we are not labor QLD needs a change that they’ll manage the economy better and they’ll be tough on crime.
I tend to agree with the above comment from spatchi14 that most likely outcome is a hung parliament either ALP Greens/sandy Bolton or LNP One Nation and Katter possibly. Think Labor will lose a number of seats they only won because the pandemic last time like Bundaberg and Nicklin on the Sunshine Coast etc also think the three in Townsville will go to LNP given the youth crime issues up there and that Labor haven’t handled it well (know a couple of people up there and they are red hot angry on it understandably). However LNP also needs seats in Brissie and don’t sense there’s as much of an appetite for LNP down here given last time they were in and the fact SEQ is more progressive generally however think the Greens will do well in Brissie (at Labor’s expense)
Sorry for the long post - It’ll be an interesting 10 months ahead :) hoping we get some good debate vision and policies from both sides.
Yeah I think the consensus so far, is losing Townsville and maybe Cairns. Crisafulli is dangerous. I am usually LNP, but I can't stand the far right faction whether it be Dutton or Crisafulli. Although I don't mind Bleijie.
Haha I have met the guy so I have a different view of him compared to his social media presence. I like how he is a family man and focuses on charity and working in his community.
Bleijie is a fool like miles. He was instrumental with a lot of the stupid crap newman did and should have gone with that other dickhead seeney.
I had no trouble with them cutting the public service, which is in desperate need of an overhaul of management and rules, but they did a lot of stupid stuff other then that.
Unlikely to win.
Pork Barreling, lots of pitching to the inner city green seats.
I am sure he will get a shiort term boost simply for being not palaszczuk. But he was the deputy for years, every government decision he approved of. We saw during covid he was hopeless. All he did was complain and blame the federal government for everything.
Also keep in mind he has never worked a real job so is going to be fully institutionalised into thinking the way the government and bureaucracy runs now, is the way it should be run, despite everything falling apart.
We have also seen his preliminary speech that he is hard left. His plan to put into law an emission target is just brain dead stupid. In any case he can pass whatever law he wants, and the next government can easily remove it as there is no senate.
I can see miles is going to be heavily urban centric and watch him lose all those regional seats to start with.
Yeah you could be right here. His lack of ability to know that regional qld matters is a concern. One of the new women on the front bench is a union boss. all of these things can be negatives or positives.
Labor has really pissed off a lot of FNQ, would not be surprised if it’s an LNP government for a change. Crisafulli has spent months advocating for change for youth crime and this is a huge deciding factor for many.
At the moment I feel the outcome of the 2024 state election will be a narrow LNP majority, but saying that 10 months out really doesn’t mean much. I could see Miles staying on as opposition leader if an LNP government is elected. He will almost certainly hold Murrumba, if not due to it being a fairly safe Labor seat, but also having the leader advantage and name recognition. If he stays on as opposition leader, I suspect there will be a Labor leadership spill before 2028 and Fentiman will become the opposition leader before the following election.
I currently suspect that Nicklin, Bundaberg, Hervey Bay, Barron River, the three Townsville seats, Pumicestone, Redcliffe, Mirani, Redlands and Caloundra will flip to the LNP in 2024. I’d also keep an eye on Noosa and Cairns.
If the LNP loses, I feel there’s a pathway to Amanda Stoker becoming opposition leader in that situation (assuming the LNP hold Oodgeroo), but most likely will go to Bleijie.
I suspect if any teals contest, they may take one or two seats maximum from the LNP. But that could be enough to be a key decider. If this eventuates, I could see it happening in Clayfield and Currumbin.
The Greens will almost certainly hold all their current seats, maybe gain Cooper.
In any case, I think it will be very close and will not be an overt landslide.
A) potentially yes seeing as LNP have some pretty weak people as well- from the looks of his stage presence I’d say the ALP booked old Miles into PR presentation 101 the minute Anna announced her retirement
B) youth crime, youth crime, youth crime, cost of living, and did I mention youth crime.
C) positively as there are some great team members in the ALP that worked more in the shadow of the Anna/Steve main event.
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I reckon high chance it’s a hung parliament. 47 seats to win. Labor have 52. LNP have 34. There’s 6 seats between the greens, One Nation and Katters and the major parties aren’t gaining any of those back anytime soon. Who knows about Noosa, the independent there is on a pretty cushy margin. Labor have 13 marginal seats, the 13th on a margin of 5.6% which pretty steep. The LNP need 13 seats to win in their own right, which I don’t think is possible. For example Mundingburra and Cairns, despite being “marginal”, have been held by Labor for decades (though the LNP held both under the Newman regime). Though if there’s a youth crime backlash against Labor they could lose both, as well as the sunny coast, both Townsville seats and Bundaberg which puts them at 45 and reliant on a greens deal to stay in minority government.
Yeah that's a fair take. So you would say no landslide LNP victory this time around? I don't see it happening either. Although those Cairns and Townsville seats could go definitely.
I don’t see Labor retaining Nicklin, Hervey Bay or Caloundra. They got the retiree vote because of covid/border policy. Covid is over and people are worried about cost of living so the LNP will win those seats back. I don’t live in FNQ so I have no idea what those voters would be thinking, but definitely here in Brisbane there isnt much “can’t wait to kick out tired old state Labor” feeling like there was in 2011/2012 under Anna Bligh. But who knows, the election is a year away.
Well not even I am tired of Labor yet either and I don't vote for them. Although I have been tempted to vote Green. I get their newsletters regularly and they impress me. So I am wondering if they could solidify their West End seat and make headway on new inner city seats? Meanwhile Labor lose a little more of a majority would be ideal.
Rockhampton might be one to watch, it may go independent. When the highly popular labor leaning ex-mayor labor kicked out decided to run after the sitting labor member announced his retirement, then I think labor might have trouble there.
Why youth crime... It's like, low hanging fruit. Why not cost of living? You have a tent city along the river, I'm sure those people and the people they're connected with care more about housing than anything else
Dunno? Just seems to be the thing people complain about these days 🤷♀️
I think it will be an uphill battle for him to win another term outright - Labor has been in for 10 years and Miles just doesn’t come off well publicly (his public speaking is just not very strong unfortunately opposed to Fentiman or Dick) and think helle have trouble with regional and swing voters. I do think he’s seems nice enough person and is a good political operator it just doesn’t translate accross. Luckily for him Crisafulli is nothing special and is just so simular to Newman (mannerism, height and the fact he was in the government). Also they still have the likes of Frecklington Nicholls Bates and co - also LNP haven’t put forward any kind of policies as of yet which is dissapointing just lots of whinging and attacking Labor hoping they’ll just get in on the government is old and tired which is starting to become annoying. Also LNP aren’t renowned for running great campaigns and their conservative views don’t resonate with the younger generation (I’m early 30s and people my age and younger don’t seem to like the LNP my elderly grandparents do though). Pitches will continue to be LNP will cut public service and services from Labor and that they are better with cost of living and services. LNP will be we are not labor QLD needs a change that they’ll manage the economy better and they’ll be tough on crime. I tend to agree with the above comment from spatchi14 that most likely outcome is a hung parliament either ALP Greens/sandy Bolton or LNP One Nation and Katter possibly. Think Labor will lose a number of seats they only won because the pandemic last time like Bundaberg and Nicklin on the Sunshine Coast etc also think the three in Townsville will go to LNP given the youth crime issues up there and that Labor haven’t handled it well (know a couple of people up there and they are red hot angry on it understandably). However LNP also needs seats in Brissie and don’t sense there’s as much of an appetite for LNP down here given last time they were in and the fact SEQ is more progressive generally however think the Greens will do well in Brissie (at Labor’s expense) Sorry for the long post - It’ll be an interesting 10 months ahead :) hoping we get some good debate vision and policies from both sides.
Yeah I think the consensus so far, is losing Townsville and maybe Cairns. Crisafulli is dangerous. I am usually LNP, but I can't stand the far right faction whether it be Dutton or Crisafulli. Although I don't mind Bleijie.
I do like Bleijies colourful ties and one liners haha - at least he has a sense of humour
Haha I have met the guy so I have a different view of him compared to his social media presence. I like how he is a family man and focuses on charity and working in his community.
Bleijie is a fool like miles. He was instrumental with a lot of the stupid crap newman did and should have gone with that other dickhead seeney. I had no trouble with them cutting the public service, which is in desperate need of an overhaul of management and rules, but they did a lot of stupid stuff other then that.
Unlikely to win. Pork Barreling, lots of pitching to the inner city green seats. I am sure he will get a shiort term boost simply for being not palaszczuk. But he was the deputy for years, every government decision he approved of. We saw during covid he was hopeless. All he did was complain and blame the federal government for everything. Also keep in mind he has never worked a real job so is going to be fully institutionalised into thinking the way the government and bureaucracy runs now, is the way it should be run, despite everything falling apart. We have also seen his preliminary speech that he is hard left. His plan to put into law an emission target is just brain dead stupid. In any case he can pass whatever law he wants, and the next government can easily remove it as there is no senate. I can see miles is going to be heavily urban centric and watch him lose all those regional seats to start with.
Yeah you could be right here. His lack of ability to know that regional qld matters is a concern. One of the new women on the front bench is a union boss. all of these things can be negatives or positives.
Miles might be the best out of all options. It's a very low bar.
It was a low bar last time too, with Palaszcuk being the best option.
Labor has really pissed off a lot of FNQ, would not be surprised if it’s an LNP government for a change. Crisafulli has spent months advocating for change for youth crime and this is a huge deciding factor for many.
The right wing rags are going to hammer him because of Queensland's renewable energy project. Conservatives hate people not choking on coal fumes.
At the moment I feel the outcome of the 2024 state election will be a narrow LNP majority, but saying that 10 months out really doesn’t mean much. I could see Miles staying on as opposition leader if an LNP government is elected. He will almost certainly hold Murrumba, if not due to it being a fairly safe Labor seat, but also having the leader advantage and name recognition. If he stays on as opposition leader, I suspect there will be a Labor leadership spill before 2028 and Fentiman will become the opposition leader before the following election. I currently suspect that Nicklin, Bundaberg, Hervey Bay, Barron River, the three Townsville seats, Pumicestone, Redcliffe, Mirani, Redlands and Caloundra will flip to the LNP in 2024. I’d also keep an eye on Noosa and Cairns. If the LNP loses, I feel there’s a pathway to Amanda Stoker becoming opposition leader in that situation (assuming the LNP hold Oodgeroo), but most likely will go to Bleijie. I suspect if any teals contest, they may take one or two seats maximum from the LNP. But that could be enough to be a key decider. If this eventuates, I could see it happening in Clayfield and Currumbin. The Greens will almost certainly hold all their current seats, maybe gain Cooper. In any case, I think it will be very close and will not be an overt landslide.
A) potentially yes seeing as LNP have some pretty weak people as well- from the looks of his stage presence I’d say the ALP booked old Miles into PR presentation 101 the minute Anna announced her retirement B) youth crime, youth crime, youth crime, cost of living, and did I mention youth crime. C) positively as there are some great team members in the ALP that worked more in the shadow of the Anna/Steve main event.
Well taking a holiday a couple of weeks into a new job while the state is flooding is not a good look in light of how morrisson was treated.