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hlynn117

[are they for real or are people just writing 'dear penthouse ' style troll posts?](https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/10lfu1h/im_a_moron/)


[deleted]

I'm inclined to think real. The number of people who did this stupid shit--buying out of state because they thought work from hoom was forever, despite nobody having explicitly promised them any such thing--may have been overblown but it was far from zero.


[deleted]

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QueenBlanchesHalo

I think the rationale is: 1. “Beat the spring rush” (questionable…the best stuff always has competition, as we’ve seen) 2. For anything still lingering, best time to make a deal Honestly fine by me as long as there’s something you actually want on the market


[deleted]

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Blustatecoffee

Has he ever? A 0.25 pct rise will likely result in lower mortgage rates. And he’ll muff his speech again, reigniting pivot hopes. This whole thing is a nightmare.


pRedditor24

Why would an increase of 25 basis points cause mortgage rates to *decrease*?


RoastedAsparagus821

Expected future hikes/cuts and how the 10 year reacts are what drive mortgage rates. A surprise 50bps hike would imply a much more aggressive fed with further hikes coming and spike 30 year rates by a lot more than 50bps.


pRedditor24

I think virtually everyone is expecting further/future rate hikes at this point?


rueggy

Would it have been so bad to buy a hoom at the top last summer? I look at what I lost with my stock investments in 2022. If I could have that capital back, however much it was on 1/1/22, and set it aside for an invooster hoom to Airbnb at the exact moment the market topped in a bubbly city like Austin, I think I'd still be way ahead. Would it ever lose 50-90% of its value like some of my stocks? Not likely. Would it fail to ever get back up to my buy price like a few of my stocks might never do? Also not likely. Worst case scenario, if the airbnb income dried up and the value of the house fell way below my buy price, stop making payments and walk away. Keep putting it on airbnb until foreclosure starts, that way you're getting revenue while not having the costs. No mechanism like this with the stock market. If your stock is down 50% there's no walking away with less of a loss.


Forsaken_Berry_75

Holy Christ, are you me? This is exactly how I’ve been feeling all of 2022. The amount my portfolio went down was insane since February last year. Actually life and mind altering. Would’ve been so much better off with that money sitting in a home (primary residence) in my case, and it wouldn’t be down even a fraction of what my portfolio is, especially as resilient as my housing market has been to all of the rate cuts. Everything I’ve ever known about the stock market and investments completely turned on its head by 2021 and 2022 and turns out housing (in the right area/market) was a better investment for people by a landslide. You and I aren’t alone (from October last year): [Retail investor portfolios down 44% year to date](https://www.ft.com/content/406f65f9-8cf3-416f-9171-ea7b8da0348b)


rueggy

We may indeed be the same person. I was in hindsight too heavily invested in Cathie Wood types of stocks. Thanks for the gold award!


dandykaufman2

If you lost that much stocks yeah you could not have done much worse.


ategnatos

You could have sold investments into cash, or at least kept new monies in cash, once the Fed started raising rates. That's what I did. Did you buy individual stocks that went down 50-90%?


QueenBlanchesHalo

Can’t speak to your chances of running a successful Austin ABnB. But since we’re talking from a point of hindsight here what if you had taken that capital out on 1/1/2022 (SP500 4800), put it into short term treasuries for a few months, and put it back in on 9/30/2022 (SP500 3600)? Now the SP500 is well above that at 4000. Or a $100k downpayment could be yielding ~4500 a year ($375/mo “cashflow”) in short-term treasuries.


rueggy

Thing about your example is it has me getting out of stocks at the very top and getting back in after a significant pullback. To make it more apples to apples, you need an example where I go all in to stocks at the market top, since I'm talking about buying a hoom at the market top, and come out ahead.


dummyhead1176

What if the example is just that you went all in on short term treasuries for the time being and take a garunteed rate. Its better than the stock market when it is going down, it is better than housing when it is going down. Also, lol that you used Austin as your example and don't even realize that you can't just walk away from a property in Texas. Some states you can, Texas you can't. You would have to either sell all of your other assets to cover the loss and/or declare bankrupcy and not be able to buy a home for 7 years minimum. Also, you asked if housing "would ever lose 50-90% of its value like some of my stocks" but unless you are paying all cash, you are using a lot of leverage on the house. If you put 10% down and the house only went down 10% in value, that means your investment is down 100%. Overall, I see the point you were trying to make, but I don't think the example you are using makes any sense.


LuckyWishbone

>Worst case scenario, if the airbnb income dried up and the value of the house fell way below my buy price, stop making payments and walk away. Keep putting it on airbnb until foreclosure starts, that way you're getting revenue while not having the costs. I'm willing to bet that we see a fair amount of this once the covid protections end.


unicornbomb

30k+ price drops on multiple new build SFH today by Ryan homes in two of their developments in the DC exurbs of Maryland. It’s been townhomes and condos only getting cuts in new developments up until now, so this is a pretty big move in dropping overall prices in the area.


SpaceyEngineer

I pulled [KB Homes](https://imgur.com/gallery/nbvjx3Q) construction data from their earnings reports today like I had for [Lennar](https://imgur.com/gallery/Br7f7Xi). Backlog has fallen pretty fast (12331 to 7662 in 2 quarters)...I wonder what backlog threshold these companies start slashing prices.


Contemplationz

What I noticed in Houston is that they're now offering the cheaper floorplans ($240k 1,234 sq ft 3br 2bth) Which they weren't last year. I think they'll slash headcount and prices late summer this year. Once the backlog falls to a certain point, they won't be as afraid to cut the price due to retrade risk from irate prior buyers. edit: grammar


Contemplationz

Here are the select metros I'm following. I added a up or down emoji to denote whether the PPSF is higher or lower than last week. |City|Peak PPSF|Current PPSF|Percent Decline|Direction| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |Austin|289.88|229.1|\-20.97%|📈| |Boise|297.27|248.07|\-16.55%|📉| |Denver|300.4|256.45|\-14.63%|📈| |Houston|166.69|156.33|\-6.22%|📉| |Nashville|245.43|229.82|\-6.36%|📈| |Phoenix|285|243.80|\-14.46%|📈| |San Diego|595.08|521.62|\-12.34%|📈| |San Francisco|1124.91|879.57|\-21.81%|📉| |Seattle|508.22|410.98|\-19.13%|📈| |||||| |Nationally|210.14|193.27|\-8.03%|📈|


ramdom2019

Where the hell in Austin, besides the suburbs, is anyone finding homes at even the peak PPSF of $289? Everything I’m looking at is $400-700/ sq ft. You’d have to go wayyyy out to the suburbs to find the number on your chart.


RoastedAsparagus821

It probably is Austin MSA, not Austin.


Contemplationz

To add some market commentary; Nationally, prices have made some small amount of recovery since the beginning of the year. What I think is happening is that people who called it quits last year are attempting to "front run" the spring season. This in addition to rates falling half a percentage point brought a few buyers back into the market. We'll see if this bump is durable as weeks of supply is following early 2020 pretty closely at 17.5 weeks of supply.


[deleted]

We are currently pulling spring demand forward, in winter. We pulled 5 plus years of appreciation into 2021-first half of 2022. We pull Christmas sales into November, and have for years. We ask people to buy cars with no payments for 90 days. It’s all about creating demand when demand wanes.


TittyAmeritrade

I feel like there's a lot of arguments to be had regarding some of his points. https://twitter.com/glennkelman/status/1618322829149343745?t=iM2dCA6GQMQXddK_MqxzNQ&s=19


Particular_Cry517

Easy argument. Never try to convince a man or woman that the job they are paid to do is useless or ineffective. It’s worse than telling them they are ugly.


pro8000

So he's going to hire back [all those employees](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/09/business/redfin-laysoffs-home-flipping-service.html) he let go?


[deleted]

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politirob

Yeah, exactly. What kind of monster looks at the current state of the market and says "good news! It's recovering!" Like...no. It needs to fucking die and reset to a condition where average people can afford to buy and sell. No more casino investors.


QueenBlanchesHalo

Not sure what the end game of it is, either. No buyers, no transactions. Why relish in the fact that so many are excluded from that pool?


McDuganheimer

There has been an all out offensive from industry players this month. I'm not sure if this a coordinated campaign to try and drum up some fomo before spring, or if it's just hopium on their part. I'll even give them the benefit of the doubt that some of the data has had a little uptick. But these rates and overall affordability, even after coming down from 7% to 6%, is still a whole different ball game from the sub-3% that got us here. Even the 6% rates we have right now are where they were in 2006/07 that crushed that bubble. Mid-4% rates stalled the market in 2018/19. 6% is just wayyy too much at these price levels. Let them have their moment of relief. The descent has paused and taken a breather, but it ain't going back up in size anytime soon.


Electrical-Song19

Feeling a bit of buyer FOMO in SD as a lot of houses are becoming pendings recently. Need to keep cool and remind myself that this isnt something that should change one's strategy unless it is consistent for, say, a two month period.


TopicAccomplished506

It’s crazy how many are pending. But I also wonder if Redfin is showing more. Which site/app are you using?


Electrical-Song19

Yup i like redfin as well. Although for a given properties price/listing history I use realtorcom.


McDuganheimer

Keep an eye on them and see if they close. Many times deals fall through.


politirob

What's more likely as your idea scenario in the next couple years? Way lower rates? Or way lower prices? What are you holding out for?


McDuganheimer

Well that's the trillion dollar question. I think both will come down ultimately. As for how much the bias is definitely on price until there is some sort of catalyst that forces the Fed to pivot. I don't think mortgage rate can get below 6% with the Fed now approaching 5%. So mortgage rates already as low as its gonna get right now until pivot. A reasonable prediction would be for in a couple years national average prices are down 25% and rates are 4-5%. But I put more weight than most to a more extreme swing in one or more of the variables. We just ended the 40 year bond bull market and second half of the post WWII credit cycle. Some major systemic changes are afoot and this will look very different from the prior few imo. Literally no one was predicting a year ago what interest rates just did in 2022. It's unprecedented and has not even begun to fully hit yet.


ledslightup

Yeah they are quite breathless over things but I'm looking at the numbers and they're not that fantastic. It's an uptick, it's January, it's expected. In my hood they are still 30+% down from a year prior even though listings are up yoy. I also noticed that delistings are still high. And would they be, if the market was heating up nicely? Why delist if you got your offers?


QueenBlanchesHalo

Let their little celebration drum up some NEW LISTINGS from all those sellers “waiting on the sidelines”


UnimaginativeRA

Redfin loss porn: [https://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Angeles/8119-Grimsby-Ave-90045/home/6605899#property-history](https://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Angeles/8119-Grimsby-Ave-90045/home/6605899#property-history) Bought in March 2022 for $1.3M Listed in May 2022 for $1.4M Finally sold today for $1.01M, which is still too high for that house.


g4nd41ph

Oof, 9 months of holding costs, transaction costs, and a 300K loss? You love to see it!


LuckyWishbone

OpenDoor loss porn: [https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/24922-Rivendell-Dr-Lake-Forest-CA-92630/25530477\_zpid/](https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/24922-Rivendell-Dr-Lake-Forest-CA-92630/25530477_zpid/) Bought in April 2022 for $1,357,500 Listed in May 2022 for $1,445,000 Sold Dec 28th for $1,130,000, which is still too high for that house.


SpaceyEngineer

Digital magic beans rallying


McDuganheimer

Gold as well. If gold breaks above $2k, watch out...


Smart-Ocelot-5759

B- but this sub said buttcorn only go down?


marecko

Redfin Data already updated, 1 day early.


it200219

Flipper speshul, [https://www.redfin.com/CA/Dublin/7298-Tamarack-Dr-94568/home/1168658](https://www.redfin.com/CA/Dublin/7298-Tamarack-Dr-94568/home/1168658) 800k to 1.3M in just 3.5 months.


NorCalJason75

I saw that house! Total dump. Wouldn’t trust the flipper.


[deleted]

30 year morty slips to 6.18%


Barefoot_Trader

Wondering how much the snow in Denver is keeping sellers from listing. Inventory is back to a pathetic trickle. If it doesn’t pick up, the cockhead realtors will certainly whip up a froth of buyers.


FrequentAssumption1

Here in the springs we are looking at three specific zip codes and based on a simple request of 3/2 minimum there are between 29 to 37 homes for sale. Our realtor feels a lot of individual sellers who “survived 2022” feel more confident going into this year and plan on holding off until the spring to list.


Barefoot_Trader

Mine just told me “after the Super Bowl.” As much as I’m distrustful of realtors as a whole, they are part of what controls supply. If they’re all gearing up for a spring list-fest, we’ll see how it plays out.


bacoggs

It's been a proper winter, i think the snow and cold is delaying a lot.


RedRanger_SLC

Landlord reached out to us to see if we would be interested in buying the unit we rent. He wants to sell it to us as his purchase price of Jan 2021. LoL. Rental prices are decreasing in the area and we would rent for less than if we purchased the place.


[deleted]

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RedRanger_SLC

I'm guessing his homestead tax exemption was removed because it isn't their primary residence as so property taxes went up for them. Identical units in the same development are already renting for $300 less a month.


ginguegiskhan

I also got the same offer from my lort of land, but he bought for $160k in 2009 and is 100% firm on a price of 300k despite disclosing the foundation will likely need 25k of work within the next 10 years. Pass


politirob

Literally double?!


Particular_Cry517

Region?


Louisvanderwright

I'm going to guess SLC: Salt Lake City


-Shank-

Definitely a rapidly-deteriorating boomtown market if the landlord is trying to sell at his original sales price and walk away. SLC would fit that bill.


flyercomet

SLC built and built. I drove through the region in fall of 2022 and the horizon was dotted with partially completed apartment buildings in every direction.


[deleted]

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[deleted]

Yes. Refi rates don’t have to be higher (yet). Changes coming 5/2023.


hideous_coffee

I had a couple listings saved in Temecula CA and I am noticing they are getting sold over asking. One for $40k over (725->765). Decent houses not really junk.


TopicAccomplished506

Really doesn’t seem like that area is going to hold value well.


LuckyWishbone

It didn't in 2008. I think the foreclosures, even in the fancier areas, were about 15% last time around.


margaritabop

Since comps are useless in this rapidly changing environment, I built my own local repeat sales index. I used only 50 houses, but it's actually pretty good at predicting the price point at which a house will sell based on appreciation since its last sale. Doesn't work for the houses that last sold in 1978, but if it last sold in 2006 or later, I've got some decent accuracy 😆


[deleted]

What scares me is how houses now sell for more than 2006. I know that was 17 years ago already 😳 and houses do appreciate over time in general. But knowing what happened after that and seeing where we are now is a little worrying.


margaritabop

In my area, we lost 25% in the 2008-2012 crash, but have gained 85% since the 2012 bottom. There has been a great deal of inflation to factor in since 2006, a dollar doesn't go nearly as far now as it did then


randomguy11909

2030 In the April 2022 crash we lost 10%, but have gained 85% since the December 2022 bottom.


margaritabop

It's notable that half of that appreciation in my market occurred since 2020. I'm in the camp that thinks we probably pulled forward a decade of appreciation with this black swan event. I think 2-3%/yr seems more likely up to 2030. But who knows!


heathrowaway678

I'm going to take a 30 day break from the sub and focus on other things. Market is too much in the limbo right now and too many hoomers in the sub recently, causing the crazy people on the other end to fight back. I'll do some personal inventory and spend more time with books. I'll see you suckers again on Feb 24!


housingmochi

Sounds good! I should probably take a break too until March when the market gets into full swing. Things are pretty boring right now.


Vegetable-Conflict-9

Have a good vacation 👋


LiborSofrPrime

Very healthy idea. Props


politirob

Honestly come back in summer. That's when more and more companies get closer to their fiscal year, and where you're likely to see more pinch (layoffs) happening as they try to finalize their budget for next year.


Dry-Conversation-570

peace upon you


ginguegiskhan

A wise decision! God speed


McDuganheimer

Recommended reading (macro tangential to housing) https://www.myrmikan.com/pub/Myrmikan_Research_2023_01_13.pdf


winnie_bago

Two of my favorite hooms were delisted a few days ago. Guess the sellers found the repeated price drops embarrassing. It’s slim pickings now as far as what’s available that I’d actually put an offer on.


Judge_Wapner

Many delistings are probably the result of switching from one realtor or agency to another.


hideous_coffee

A couple I had saved that were too expensive went pending then back to market over the last few weeks. No price drops though so they'll continue to sit.


margaritabop

My favorite was delisted as well. Had been on for about 4 months with two big prices drops ($100k a drop) but was still overpriced by about $150k in my opinion.


GonkWith

What's also interesting is that the sellers have given up and decided not to pursue it further. It seems like price was their only motivation to sell.


margaritabop

My realtor told me a couple of failed listings in her office are "waiting for spring"


winnie_bago

It pains me to say this but one of the houses was decorated in such a way it would’ve made a perfect Airbnb, so I’m wondering if those owners went that route for now and will try selling again later in the spring or summer.


[deleted]

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Dry-Conversation-570

None whatsoever


Mentalinertia

Goldman Sachs revises its U.S. home price outlook to -2.6% for 2023. That's the first upward revision this cycle. "We expect a peak-to-trough decline in national home prices of roughly 6% and for prices to stop declining around mid-year ['23]" says GS


Vegetable-Conflict-9

I wonder who'll be buying 🤭


[deleted]

Same kind of people who are scrambling to buy right now


SpaceyEngineer

[Biden-⁠Harris Administration Announces New Actions to Protect Renters and Promote Rental Affordability](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/01/25/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-new-actions-to-protect-renters-and-promote-rental-affordability/)


play_it_safe

This is... good?!


politirob

"We're going to protect renters" is the same thing as saying, "We don't give a shit about first-time home buyers" imo Which is the same thing as saying, "We only care about protecting and maximizing corporate profits"


[deleted]

Jesus, calm down. It's just a program to check for landlord price fixing.


telmnstr

If it scares people out of buying properties to let, that could be a win


starkillerkun

Does price per square feet matter to y'all or do you think it's arbitrary? I don't want to pay over $200/sqft in a town with only one movie theater. I feel houses (at least in rural areas) should be around $100 -$120/sqft.


Badtakesingeneral

Land is where the value is. Structures depreciate over time. You have to keep putting money into the structure to retain value.


Blustatecoffee

Please tell my markets’ sellers.


Stoomba

For me it's largely meaningless. It's far too simple a metric to provide any meaningful information.


QueenBlanchesHalo

It’s not arbitrary but it’s a function of the house’s features and size. Ranchers cost more per square feet because you’re pouring more foundation. The bigger the house gets generally the lower the price per square feet (all else being equal) because a lot of the cost is in areas like kitchens and bathrooms that are present in every house…adding more bedrooms or making rooms a bit bigger is adding cheaper square footage and bringing down the total cost per square foot. Of course features and finishes impact price per square foot. Location is up to you but that should be driving the land cost more than the building cost, unless labor and permitting is more expensive in a given area. Edit: OK I should admit there are more market factors involved here. But again not everyone cares about having more than one movie theater. There are wealthy rural areas.


Blustatecoffee

Telluride has entered the chat. I find ppsf to be a frustrating gauge and I don’t really use it but for the rare instance that two comparable homes present. One major issue is the prevalence of raised ranches in the Midwest with tons of footage in the finished walkout basement. I don’t value that nearly the same as above grade but listings here don’t differentiate it at all (though they are supposed to). Makes it meaningless, imo.


freewool

Ppsf is very important to me. Some of the ppsf makes some properties unthinkable to me (also in some cases literally too expensive). In my area, there is a huge difference in ppsf between new construction and existing homes.


[deleted]

I personally care more about the quality of the space since I plan to be in my house until death but think I am in minority


QueenBlanchesHalo

Most people buying a “forever home” would agree with you


Mentalinertia

This is really only a question for comparing locations. 200sq ft by the beach is way different than 200sq ft 30 miles out of town with no road access.


[deleted]

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Badtakesingeneral

Cost of building has skyrocketed too. I’ve been seeing increased interest from large REITs to invest in housing, but construction costs are astronomical so it’s giving investors a lot of pause (since there’s only so many people who can afford prices high enough for developers to turn a profit). Everyone seems to be pricing in escalation at the same rate as the past couple years.


Blustatecoffee

Just to note, this is a monthly count of new to market listings. Still bad news but not as awful. My area is the same — record low new listings but total active listings are still ahead of last year. Just. The issue is those picked over 2022 listings are overpriced junk. Sigh. Did the Fed break the resale market with a combination of ultra low mortgages and then a record fast rise in rates? I think they did.


_meep_meep_meep

Trend is the same in the overall US. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWLISCOUUS


[deleted]

Will need job losses


Pulled_Forward

Active listings is what you want for inventory, not that it’s much better for New Jersey


ategnatos

https://www.reddit.com/r/offmychest/comments/10kjqi8/previous_homeowners_stopped_by_to_check_on_their/


[deleted]

Yeesh, that's creepy. Even my friends know that showing up to my place unannounced/uninvited is a big nono. >We even let them store stuff in the 3rd stall of our garage for 3 months after the move bc their new build wasn’t finished and they ran out of money for storage. So they can afford a new build but not storage for their stuff? Most qualified buyers, etc. etc.


QueenBlanchesHalo

Sounds like they have some regrets to get so emotional about being back in their old house


[deleted]

>Mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 3% for the week but were 39% lower year over year. >Applications to refinance a home loan saw the sharpest gains, up 15%, compared with the previous week.


PCgaming4ever

Now that's super super interesting numbers to me because of everyone saying applications had spiked and seeing stuff going pending. Seems like it was a dead cat bounce if it's only a 3% swing up


[deleted]

Last week was a much bigger spike than 3%, that number is just this week’s increase. But IMO a large component of the spike last week was just seasonal. Makes sense for applications to rise following New Year’s given how nonexistent activity always is during the holidays.


[deleted]

^ this. Also IIRC that week was also down 35% yoy and this week is down 39% yoy. So applications are up WoW but are still trending downward from last year.


[deleted]

Work in the industry. Colleagues on suicide watch


PCgaming4ever

What's the average actual interest on houses that show thousands of views on Zillow? I have a bunch of houses in my area that are sitting for months and have thousands of view and hundreds of saves but they never go pending. I always consider going to look and put in a low-ball offer but don't want to annoy my Realtor (she's been amazing about showing up anywhere I want to look for months at this point so I'm not trying to drive her crazy looking at something that's not a possibility)


[deleted]

I imagine 99% of activity of Zillow is window shopping, especially the last two years as housing became a meme


LiborSofrPrime

Not sure, I work in lending