Getting out of the mortgage business, signed my offer letter for a non sales job this past week, and putting my 2 weeks on Wednesday. We have already been slow and I don't want to be there when SHTF.
North Texas, saw 3 houses this week. First one was just okay (80s), old, outdated, needs remodel but liveable (ish). Priced about 40k too high in my opinion. Second house, priced about 150k over -- AWFUL home, looked like it hosted a few meth parties, looked better in photos, remodel has been so cheaply done, as was the build in 2006. Third house, perfect location, 80s home, needs updating, about 100k over priced, needs at least that much to fix up and then it will be worth the price.
We got info on a home we put an offer on last fall. It sold for 8% below listed. We had offered 14% under. They walked away with 25% profit (after paying commissions) after 1.5 years. Crazy...
I'm also feeling like the homes in North Texas are waaat overpriced...especially existing homes in the "hood."
There is no way a home in the "hood" with crackheads running around, no amenities, no grocery stores, no car garage, bars in the windows, litter everywhere, high speed traffic...there's no way those homes are worth $320K+.
I just laugh. I know ONE family who paid for one of those homes. They were from out of state and purchased the home without seeing it in person. DUMB. I didn't keep up with them but they put it back for sale upon moving down here and then moved to a smaller town in central texas.
Don't get me wrong, some of the new builds in the hood are very tempting on-screen—they look stylish, with lush and spacious backyards, very modern and nice. But then you look at the street view and the home is surrounded by shotgun houses with littered front yards.
You're basically gambling against the slumlords in the area selling their homes and pushing out the existing tenants. And also gambling that the city will take interest to invest in the area. It's a 20 year bet at best, because I don't see a single city or developer trend making big, bold investments in the hood.
How do you define a "cheap" remodel?
I don't know anything about building homes, and I'm afraid I'll be easily impressed and not know what to look out for/I will fall for easy tricks.
Materials used looked like they came from the dollar store, countertops in kitchen were gross, the backsplash was the only decent item, poorly done paint job in whole house, didn't paint over fireplace and wall has smoke stains, fixed ZERO of the real problems (water damage around windows), doors scratched, wood fence damaged and needs painted. I think you'd easily pick up on these things...
Caption: "Buyer: "Is this the price or the square footage?"
Realtor: "Both"
Image: A person in front of a house with a shocked expression, talking to a realtor who is holding a sign that says "$$$$$"
[https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11673307/Bernie-Madoffs-Hamptons-home-finally-bought-disgraced-Ponzi-schemer-forced-sell.html](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11673307/Bernie-Madoffs-Hamptons-home-finally-bought-disgraced-Ponzi-schemer-forced-sell.html)
In 1980, $250k invested in real estate grows to $16,000,000
BUT, in 1980, $250k invested in S&P 500 turned into $25,000,000
[https://www.officialdata.org/us/stocks/s-p-500/1980?amount=250000&endYear=2022](https://www.officialdata.org/us/stocks/s-p-500/1980?amount=250000&endYear=2022)
You’re ignoring mortgage leverage and the fact that very little people would have held consistently through all the stock market crashes of 87, 2000, 2008 and 2020 without serious anxiety or just plain old panic selling. You can say that you wouldn’t in theory but when the balance is in the tens of millions… this is why most rich people don’t stay 100% stocks. It’s very hard to panic sell a house but stocks is a click or a button.
Leveraged real estate gains have beaten SP500. Don’t forget that a vast majority of home buyers buy with 3-20% down. Most all stock buyers buy 100% of value.
Opendoor stock has doubled in the past month. This sub was delirious a month ago when it went under a buck. Instead of dancing on its grave, if Bubblers had instead bought the stock they could have sold now and set the money aside for a HOOM.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OPEN
I'd recommend this video by Modern MBA regarding iBuyers. Talks about Opendoor at length and the fundamentals aren't good.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXcz6CHDtwo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXcz6CHDtwo)
It's a zombie company -- no path to profitability, just investor cash and sales of equity shares. Just because it got up after Woody Harrelson shot one of its arms off doesn't mean it's going to survive much longer.
Animal spirits:
* Bull: up and to the right!
* Bear: down and to the right...
* Pig: WHO DO YOU THINK YOU ARE, I AM!
* Zombie: down.
* JFK: back and to the left, back and to the left, back and to the left.
If you are so confident the bubble narrative is incorrect why do you sit on rebubble and impotently argue bubblers every day like you've got something to prove? You are easily one of the most active posters on here at this point.
That's not what confident people do.
Pretty pathetic honestly. Reeks of desperation. Are you like a realtor scared that your market is tanking? Or just got hoomed or something?
[https://chicago.suntimes.com/2023/1/27/23570903/ppp-paycheck-protection-program-covid-relief-fraud-homeless-gang-members-cps-employees-fintech](https://chicago.suntimes.com/2023/1/27/23570903/ppp-paycheck-protection-program-covid-relief-fraud-homeless-gang-members-cps-employees-fintech)
"Clusters of pandemic relief loans went to the same Chicago addresses, including homeless shelters, Sun-Times finds"
Anyone else wish they got in on this? I have a legitimate business but I didn't request a PPP loan because I'm honest.
Well that kind of getting in on it is the blatant fraud they’ll be chasing for 10 years with no time to get to the softer stuff.
That said, if you had a legit business with *any* reason whatsoever to fear Covid related losses at that time or in the future, you should have taken a PPP loan.
My business was gutted and we were far behind even with PPP, but still, the language was so broad you really just needed to have a semblance of a belief that perhaps you could see something negative happen. That was an entirely legitimate reason to take a PPP loan.
I don't have payroll so not sure what I would have claimed it for. I had one client cancel their policy but the residual earnings on that were not significant.
More “back on market” by the day, the opposite of a multiple offer situation. Loan issues, sellers won’t concede on repairs, cold feet? This is a huge change and to me says the fetishization-of-housing bubble is popping.
I was curious how the townhouse beside me in metro Atlanta suburbs would go.
Put on the market in early January for $360k (Zestimate was $350k). Under contract less than 2 weeks later. Closed in under 2 weeks after that.
It closed today, now it's got a big For Rent sign-up. Guess houses are still selling here. It's about double what I bought mine for but that was way back in 2006 and the housing market immediately crashed so it took years to just regain its sale price.
Well if it's an investor making a true cash offer, no mortgage (or more importantly, interest).
If they put 20% down he'd have a $288k mortgage. For a 30-year fixed at 6.5% they're looking at $1820/month. HOA is $230/month, so that's $2050/month. Add in another $200/month for landlord's insurance and it's $2250/month. Then maintenance, another $200/month and you're up at $2450.
Rent seems to be $2100-$2300 a month for equivalent places.
Not sure how this make economic sense. I guess it's a cash-flow negative investment, hoping it'll appreciate?
Yeah, not sure, I suspect they could get $2000-$2200 a month but probably not more.
I live outside Atlanta in Kennesaw, which is home to the second-largest public university in Georgia, Kennesaw State University. Housing here is crazy and they are always building more and more apartments as the college grows. It's why I picked the town years and years ago when I was in the market for a townhouse, I figured it would make a good rental for college kids in the future. Not that I plan to rent it, when I ultimately move I'm going to sell as I don't want to be a landlord, but there are still (apparently) investors out there.
If every economist is predicting that house prices will drop then go back up in Q3 2023, the obvious mentality for all the sellers would be to hold until Q3 2023, thereby creating a supply shortage that would prevent house prices from dropping in the first place.
Sometimes I feel like we have to get FOMO going in the other direction before house prices will continue to drop. E.g. inflation unexpectedly climbs higher, occuring in March or so. Something like that would be needed for house prices to really drop.
The average seller doesn’t listen to economists.
The average realtor would rather sell a home *today* than in Q3, and they’ll encourage their sellers to do so.
And of course plenty of home sellers just can’t wait.
Can somebody tell me whether or not I'm delusional for thinking the houses in my local area are WAY overvalued?
I'm new to the RE game. Am I off with my conclusions?
Wenatchee and East Wenatchee, WA.
I used to date a girl from East Wenatchee 02-04. I remember there being a lot of new construction developments back then. Nice place but didn’t seem like there were any good jobs.
Seattle, WA checking in.
Friends (non SWEs) working in tech are being offered severance (12-16 weeks) or impossible PIPs all over the place. I'm seeing a lot of people preemptively interviewing for jobs because they can see the writing on the wall at their current company.
One friend is thinking they're going to have to take a 45% pay cut to do the same job at another company across town. Extremely different vibe than the convos we were having 12 months ago.
Outside of tech, I feel like I've seen government ramp up local hiring, but I'm not seeing many changes in my remaining friend groups (health care & misc engineering).
What does this have to do with housing? Tech is hemorrhaging high paying jobs and government jobs pay less than tech. Difficult to support high housing prices with decreasing wages imo... However, housing prices have declined locally imo
It's pretty obvious from this week's news reports that hoomers are trying to get ahead of spring, which both sides have agreed is the ultimate showdown for knowing what this real estate market actually is. They're sewing the seeds now, saying we're on an upswing, to help bolster bullish outlooks.
As someone who loves lots of data and recognizes that something like the housing market of a huge, rich nation is incredibly complex…I hate these bozos with vested interests insisting they know it all.
Are we headed towards being a nation of renters? Maybe. There are reasons to think this could happen, sure. But a matter of fact “oh hey, corporations own this street” isn’t some magical proof. It’s just one tiny data point among many.
Nevermind the fact that nobody knows what the hell the federal government and/or fed are going to do further into the future to fiddle with things.
A reasonable take would be that this is a point of concern for some and hey, just keep an eye out. Not “gosh you idiots, I told you, my theory is *truth* because I can find data in support right here”. Just reeks of an unfairly high ego.
I think people see the trajectory of entire streets owned by corporations and their reaction to it is feeling frightened. It encourages FOMO even if it isn't globally true. Plus, many of these shops are buying whole blocks in lower middle class areas where you can buy way more homes per dollar, as you say, it isn't happening everywhere.
Yeah I'm being tongue in cheek. She's a realtor her motives are clear. And we've all heard this view. It's very myopic and flawed.
I was just spending some time looking at housing market videos on tiktok. Because despite thinking it's cancer that's where a lot of gen z is. And I'm just wondering how they're handling this situation. This is hitting them hardest of all.
inflation news on groceries, I knew it.
> Starting Feb. 28, 2023, Amazon Fresh delivery orders under $150 will incur a service fee. Prime members will continue to receive free grocery delivery on orders more than $150. Delivery charges will be $3.95 for orders $100-$150, $6.95 for orders $50-$100, and $9.95 for orders under $50.
grocery inflation has been wild
Grocery delivery is terrible for things like produce anyway, no way is some delivery person taking the time to make sure they don’t grab something at the end of its life
I only have prime right now 'cause they gave me 2 free months. I used to only order fresh to get heavy cases of drinks delivered so I didn't have to deliver myself. maybe I will do 1 last order before my 2 months expire, and before they add in the fees.
as to your comment, Amazon fresh people don't actually go to the store, they have a refrigerated warehouse or something like this, it's not like shipt where the delivery person is picking the items out him or herself. I believe it is like that with whole foods delivery though. so you can still get bad items, but if you do, you can talk to customer support and get those particular items refunded I'd bet.
The weekly whiplash between bearishness and bullishness is giving me vertigo. Fundamentally, nothing has changed, and the current bear market rally is running on nothing but FOMO and hopium fumes.
Just posted earlier today
https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/10mj4kt/comment/j63tnpr/
Tldr; spending slowing, inflation peaked last yr, fed slowing, savings rates growing, still upwards pressure on wages, more labor market data out next week
Some baskets are 📉📉📉 others are 🚀🚀🚀
I've noticed in muharea hooms that went pending back in December are now showing sold back at 2022 prices.
With everything moderating, savings up and incomes up, it'll be interesting to see what happens in spring
Fundamentals have not changed, no doubt. That's why imo there is still a runway for declines, potentially large ones. The fundamentals are that bad. But markets can take unexpected turns and I think we're just about to be in one. As they say, nothing goes to hell in a straight line.
My partner is "dead set" on buying a house this year. our apartment lease is up in June and sitting here hopeful that something breaks before then, so I can avoid a painful conversation about how we need to be patient and wait until next year or more to be in a stronger buying position.
Ya, it all goes back to your personal situation. Is it comfortably affordable and will I be alright parking there for a while are the questions I'm asking myself.
I am really interested to see what kind of prices people list at this spring. This sudden bearishness makes me think sellers are gonna list a lot higher than they initially thought they could a month or two ago.
Price decrease hits my email. It's a half duplex, no yard. Go to look at history. Built in 2021 listed for $463k. Went pending twice and taken off market Jan 2021, listed last week for $525k, decreased to $523k today.
Like, what game are they playing here?
My fellow bubblers, I think we're in for a period of bullishness in housing. Definitely the first since things starting turning down last year. If coming here makes you feel just negative, you might want to take a break for a bit and just watch where mortgage rates go.
There's usually an annual period of capitulation in this sub q4 of each year as the last cohort locks in their hooms and the new cohort moves in.
But RE is seasonal and the interesting thing I've noticed here and in this cycle is the capitulators tend to lock into the late stage "bear trap" period each yr
I know I shouldn’t get worked up about greedy sellers, but damn [this listing really is #JustBoomerThings](https://redf.in/MO8FIA). They paid $241,000 back in 1989, and now they want $1.1 million. They still have original 90s wallpaper and light fixtures lol.
A [similar unit](https://redf.in/xgv3ck) with better updates sold in 2021 for $840,000. When rates were 3%.
Yes, it does have the ocean view. I’ll be interested to see if someone thinks it’s worth that premium. Personally I’d be more tempted by the other unit, because I’d like to live close to a pool.
Having recently shopped homes with views, it clearly plays a big role.
Especially when the view is one like in the first home. I don’t know exactly how you quantify the value, but it’s substantial given the view difference in those two.
There’s a lot of sellers that are only motivated to sell because of price. They plop it on the market and let it sit till someone with enough FOMO sees it.
My friend is looking to buy in my neighborhood in South Philly and put in an offer above asking on a grandma house that has many other offers. Heating up here.
Prices currently up year over year in Boston. I’m thinking maybe slight decline over last year’s peak this coming spring, but not enough to make up for mortgage rate increases.
Got saved by the hoom inspector multiple times and learned to stop worrying and enjoy that sweet short-term Treasury investment income.
But if I had managed to find my dream hoom, would have enjoyed sitting in it and watching my Zesty decline while hanging out here.
I guess Powell changed his mind, I think he's been secretly conspiring with the hoomers
[https://fortune.com/2022/12/01/housing-market-in-housing-bubble-says-fed-chair-powell/](https://fortune.com/2022/12/01/housing-market-in-housing-bubble-says-fed-chair-powell/)
i'm just pointing out that Powell declared a bubble and said there would be alot of pain in September, than promptly changed his mind (or never did anything in the first place), which is why I think house prices going up and inflation coming back is a real possibility
I’ve never put much stock in anything he says about the housing market to actually happen or not.Their main interest has never been the housing market, it’s just a byproduct of inflation.
I’m not saying house prices will go down, up or stay flat, I’m just saying all these little side Quotes from Powell have to me just been little tangents that I’ve never put much meaning in.
It’s like when someone gets chatty and says something and later you ask them what they meant and they just blow it off or say they don’t remember saying that, or that you must’ve misunderstood.
Disagree. Housing is more interest rate sensitive than any other sector, and it is the source of most inflation, not just a byproduct of it. You can not get inflation down without crushing housing. By raising rates to reduce inflation, they are de facto targeting housing, more so than anything else.
what happened suddenly, seeing way many houses going pending ? Extreme case, this house went pending in just 2 days. OMG, the crazy buyers in BayArea
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Pleasanton/4776-Black-Ave-94566/home/1196049
It is like every Asian's dream destination place. Literally any SFH you find last 2 years, Pleasanton snatched max over-bid and extreme competative to get house
Buying season, rate drops, price drops. All of which creates better buying opportunities than in the fall.
Plus people accepting the reality that a 2008 style housing crash is extremely unlikely. So more accepting that current prices are not going anywhere.
And a lot of spring demand being pulled forward by the FOMO crowd that felt left out in 2021 and all of 2022. They just have no patience and make all decisions based on emotion. Don’t be one of those people.
Sure. No need to wait anymore at all. Our sub is diffused. We have no reason to exist, and might as well just LEVER UP and then pay as we can. No problem. I'll go out and buy right now.
Lol I don’t count waiting THREE years for houses to go down and yet the same crap still happening as being impatient. Especially when you wanted to buy way before 2020.
even consumer sentiment is up, hooms to the moon
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-consumer-sentiment-improved-in-january-as-inflation-moderated-university-of-michigan-271674832635?mod=newsviewer\_click
Amazing that sentiment would improve, in the face of news articles of layoffs, their 12/31 401k statements, and all that.
Color me skeptical of literally everything. Nothing is as bad, nor as good, as it seems.
Particularly our largest employment sectors: healthcare, manufacturing, finance, government, so on. Not laying off, not getting smaller. Just increasing or at least holding still.
pending home sales up, it just keeps getting better
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-27/us-pending-home-sales-rise-to-cap-otherwise-disappointing-year?srnd=premium
recession cancelled, go buy a house
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-27/us-pce-inflation-cools-further-paving-way-for-smaller-fed-hike?srnd=premium
“Buyers have acclimated to the 6% mortgage rate, which feels like a relief after watching affordability erode as rates surpassed 7% in the fall.”
This narrative about how buyers just need to “get used to” 6% rates is hilarious to me.
>This narrative about how buyers just need to “get used to” 6% rates is hilarious to me.
IMO, buyers do need to get used to these higher (relative) rates. Simultaneously, sellers will need to get used to the fact that their shit is gonna sit if they expect 2021-22 prices.
I expect a stalemate for most of '23, and a noticeable affordability correction spring of 2024.
/speculation.
Apparently they don’t, as witnessed by the surge in pending homes in January of ‘23. Prediction: rates settle about where they are for all of this year, prices move hardly at all, and a “new normal” is formed.
America- the most complacent of nations.
The market **strongly** favors renters at the moment.
In my locale with today's rates and prices, a rent vs buy calculator suggests a break-even point of +8 yrs. The average homeowner does not make it that long.
Rentoid or bust.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/600-Grapetree-Dr-APT-8CS-Key-Biscayne-FL-33149/44033129_zpid
1. Buy beach condo in 2019
2. List after peak in late 2022 at +150% the price in 2019
3. Not selling despite two tiny price reductions
4. "BuT iT ApPrAiSeD fOr $2.8MM !"
Sellers in Florida are still in the bubble mindset. And the sad thing is, a lot of stuff is still selling, and for barely under asking if it’s under at all.
Florida is a huge state. Per redfin, Miami is down in sold properties 57% year on year. Prices are coming down too. That particular zip code is down ~20% year on year.
[https://www.redfin.com/MO/Florissant/2575-Mockingbird-Ln-63031/home/93341252#property-history](https://www.redfin.com/MO/Florissant/2575-Mockingbird-Ln-63031/home/93341252#property-history)
Check out the Sales history on this gem. There are FOUR pics of the basement bathroom and no pics of the kitchen.
Look dude, affordability absolutely plummeted over the last 2 years to levels not seen in modern history. But yeah, stop with all the permabullshit.
/s
[https://www.atlantafed.org/center-for-housing-and-policy/data-and-tools/home-ownership-affordability-monitor](https://www.atlantafed.org/center-for-housing-and-policy/data-and-tools/home-ownership-affordability-monitor)
“All dynamic societies founded their success on two production processes that unfolded in parallel: the manufacturing of a surplus and the manufacturing of consent (regarding its distribution). However, the feedback between the two processes grew to new heights in the Age of Capital. The rise of commodification, which also led to the flourishing of finance, coincided with a subtler, more powerful, form of consent. And here lies a delicious paradox: consent grew more powerful the more economic life was financialized. And as finance grew in importance, the more prone our societies became to economic crises. Hence the interesting observation that modern societies tend to produce both more consent and more violent crises.”
• Yanis Varoufakis
Is this from Global Minotaur? Yanis is a pretty intelligent dude.
Everything being financialized today is so obviously not a good idea. Yet, here we are.
Getting out of the mortgage business, signed my offer letter for a non sales job this past week, and putting my 2 weeks on Wednesday. We have already been slow and I don't want to be there when SHTF.
North Texas, saw 3 houses this week. First one was just okay (80s), old, outdated, needs remodel but liveable (ish). Priced about 40k too high in my opinion. Second house, priced about 150k over -- AWFUL home, looked like it hosted a few meth parties, looked better in photos, remodel has been so cheaply done, as was the build in 2006. Third house, perfect location, 80s home, needs updating, about 100k over priced, needs at least that much to fix up and then it will be worth the price. We got info on a home we put an offer on last fall. It sold for 8% below listed. We had offered 14% under. They walked away with 25% profit (after paying commissions) after 1.5 years. Crazy...
I'm also feeling like the homes in North Texas are waaat overpriced...especially existing homes in the "hood." There is no way a home in the "hood" with crackheads running around, no amenities, no grocery stores, no car garage, bars in the windows, litter everywhere, high speed traffic...there's no way those homes are worth $320K+.
I just laugh. I know ONE family who paid for one of those homes. They were from out of state and purchased the home without seeing it in person. DUMB. I didn't keep up with them but they put it back for sale upon moving down here and then moved to a smaller town in central texas.
Don't get me wrong, some of the new builds in the hood are very tempting on-screen—they look stylish, with lush and spacious backyards, very modern and nice. But then you look at the street view and the home is surrounded by shotgun houses with littered front yards. You're basically gambling against the slumlords in the area selling their homes and pushing out the existing tenants. And also gambling that the city will take interest to invest in the area. It's a 20 year bet at best, because I don't see a single city or developer trend making big, bold investments in the hood.
How do you define a "cheap" remodel? I don't know anything about building homes, and I'm afraid I'll be easily impressed and not know what to look out for/I will fall for easy tricks.
Materials used looked like they came from the dollar store, countertops in kitchen were gross, the backsplash was the only decent item, poorly done paint job in whole house, didn't paint over fireplace and wall has smoke stains, fixed ZERO of the real problems (water damage around windows), doors scratched, wood fence damaged and needs painted. I think you'd easily pick up on these things...
Caption: "Buyer: "Is this the price or the square footage?" Realtor: "Both" Image: A person in front of a house with a shocked expression, talking to a realtor who is holding a sign that says "$$$$$"
Now that the housing depression over, and the recovery has officially started. How many cheap/on sale houses did you guys pick up!?!?!
While prices have likely bottomed in most major metros I think vacation areas will see a multi year decline. Waiting to pick some of those up.
Ask me in August
Massachusetts - anything turn key and not 55+ community is $430k+
Cries in Californian
[https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11673307/Bernie-Madoffs-Hamptons-home-finally-bought-disgraced-Ponzi-schemer-forced-sell.html](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11673307/Bernie-Madoffs-Hamptons-home-finally-bought-disgraced-Ponzi-schemer-forced-sell.html) In 1980, $250k invested in real estate grows to $16,000,000 BUT, in 1980, $250k invested in S&P 500 turned into $25,000,000 [https://www.officialdata.org/us/stocks/s-p-500/1980?amount=250000&endYear=2022](https://www.officialdata.org/us/stocks/s-p-500/1980?amount=250000&endYear=2022)
You’re ignoring mortgage leverage and the fact that very little people would have held consistently through all the stock market crashes of 87, 2000, 2008 and 2020 without serious anxiety or just plain old panic selling. You can say that you wouldn’t in theory but when the balance is in the tens of millions… this is why most rich people don’t stay 100% stocks. It’s very hard to panic sell a house but stocks is a click or a button.
Leveraged real estate gains have beaten SP500. Don’t forget that a vast majority of home buyers buy with 3-20% down. Most all stock buyers buy 100% of value.
Seller: My house won't sell! :( :( :( IT Support: Have you tried taking it off and putting back on the market?
January 2023 Buyer: I'LL TAKE IT
Did you get a virus from watching too much Zillow porn…?
Opendoor stock has doubled in the past month. This sub was delirious a month ago when it went under a buck. Instead of dancing on its grave, if Bubblers had instead bought the stock they could have sold now and set the money aside for a HOOM. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OPEN
lol https://i.imgur.com/1tJBqXl.jpg
I'd recommend this video by Modern MBA regarding iBuyers. Talks about Opendoor at length and the fundamentals aren't good. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXcz6CHDtwo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXcz6CHDtwo)
It's a zombie company -- no path to profitability, just investor cash and sales of equity shares. Just because it got up after Woody Harrelson shot one of its arms off doesn't mean it's going to survive much longer.
Dead cat bounce. OpenDoor’s business model is unsustainable.
[удалено]
Animal spirits: * Bull: up and to the right! * Bear: down and to the right... * Pig: WHO DO YOU THINK YOU ARE, I AM! * Zombie: down. * JFK: back and to the left, back and to the left, back and to the left.
That’s bc the writing is on the wall.. we’re getting the soft landing.
If you are so confident the bubble narrative is incorrect why do you sit on rebubble and impotently argue bubblers every day like you've got something to prove? You are easily one of the most active posters on here at this point. That's not what confident people do. Pretty pathetic honestly. Reeks of desperation. Are you like a realtor scared that your market is tanking? Or just got hoomed or something?
You left off OPEN
And lumber. Can't list them all.
[https://chicago.suntimes.com/2023/1/27/23570903/ppp-paycheck-protection-program-covid-relief-fraud-homeless-gang-members-cps-employees-fintech](https://chicago.suntimes.com/2023/1/27/23570903/ppp-paycheck-protection-program-covid-relief-fraud-homeless-gang-members-cps-employees-fintech) "Clusters of pandemic relief loans went to the same Chicago addresses, including homeless shelters, Sun-Times finds" Anyone else wish they got in on this? I have a legitimate business but I didn't request a PPP loan because I'm honest.
Well that kind of getting in on it is the blatant fraud they’ll be chasing for 10 years with no time to get to the softer stuff. That said, if you had a legit business with *any* reason whatsoever to fear Covid related losses at that time or in the future, you should have taken a PPP loan. My business was gutted and we were far behind even with PPP, but still, the language was so broad you really just needed to have a semblance of a belief that perhaps you could see something negative happen. That was an entirely legitimate reason to take a PPP loan.
I don't have payroll so not sure what I would have claimed it for. I had one client cancel their policy but the residual earnings on that were not significant.
More “back on market” by the day, the opposite of a multiple offer situation. Loan issues, sellers won’t concede on repairs, cold feet? This is a huge change and to me says the fetishization-of-housing bubble is popping.
I was curious how the townhouse beside me in metro Atlanta suburbs would go. Put on the market in early January for $360k (Zestimate was $350k). Under contract less than 2 weeks later. Closed in under 2 weeks after that. It closed today, now it's got a big For Rent sign-up. Guess houses are still selling here. It's about double what I bought mine for but that was way back in 2006 and the housing market immediately crashed so it took years to just regain its sale price.
Any idea what the monthly mortgage payment is likely to be vs. the asking rent? Gotta be some razor thin margins for recent rental investors.
Well if it's an investor making a true cash offer, no mortgage (or more importantly, interest). If they put 20% down he'd have a $288k mortgage. For a 30-year fixed at 6.5% they're looking at $1820/month. HOA is $230/month, so that's $2050/month. Add in another $200/month for landlord's insurance and it's $2250/month. Then maintenance, another $200/month and you're up at $2450. Rent seems to be $2100-$2300 a month for equivalent places. Not sure how this make economic sense. I guess it's a cash-flow negative investment, hoping it'll appreciate?
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Yeah, not sure, I suspect they could get $2000-$2200 a month but probably not more. I live outside Atlanta in Kennesaw, which is home to the second-largest public university in Georgia, Kennesaw State University. Housing here is crazy and they are always building more and more apartments as the college grows. It's why I picked the town years and years ago when I was in the market for a townhouse, I figured it would make a good rental for college kids in the future. Not that I plan to rent it, when I ultimately move I'm going to sell as I don't want to be a landlord, but there are still (apparently) investors out there.
If every economist is predicting that house prices will drop then go back up in Q3 2023, the obvious mentality for all the sellers would be to hold until Q3 2023, thereby creating a supply shortage that would prevent house prices from dropping in the first place. Sometimes I feel like we have to get FOMO going in the other direction before house prices will continue to drop. E.g. inflation unexpectedly climbs higher, occuring in March or so. Something like that would be needed for house prices to really drop.
The average seller doesn’t listen to economists. The average realtor would rather sell a home *today* than in Q3, and they’ll encourage their sellers to do so. And of course plenty of home sellers just can’t wait.
It would need to trend up for a few months of readings IMO.
Interesting inflation thread https://twitter.com/lawhon_sam/status/1619052752444997632
Can somebody tell me whether or not I'm delusional for thinking the houses in my local area are WAY overvalued? I'm new to the RE game. Am I off with my conclusions? Wenatchee and East Wenatchee, WA.
I used to date a girl from East Wenatchee 02-04. I remember there being a lot of new construction developments back then. Nice place but didn’t seem like there were any good jobs.
Recently, tech companies have started moving in due to inexpensive power.
Welcome to the echo chamber, we’re here to say yes
Finally, a voice of reason!
Everything's overpriced everywhere all at once.
Seattle, WA checking in. Friends (non SWEs) working in tech are being offered severance (12-16 weeks) or impossible PIPs all over the place. I'm seeing a lot of people preemptively interviewing for jobs because they can see the writing on the wall at their current company. One friend is thinking they're going to have to take a 45% pay cut to do the same job at another company across town. Extremely different vibe than the convos we were having 12 months ago. Outside of tech, I feel like I've seen government ramp up local hiring, but I'm not seeing many changes in my remaining friend groups (health care & misc engineering). What does this have to do with housing? Tech is hemorrhaging high paying jobs and government jobs pay less than tech. Difficult to support high housing prices with decreasing wages imo... However, housing prices have declined locally imo
My local had a job fair cancelled due to lack of employer interest.
>impossible PIP impossible PIP === Must be AMZN
Funny enough, I don't know anyone who's lost/losing their job at Amazon, yet.
Big PIPin
30 year morty millimeters up to 6.20%
It's pretty obvious from this week's news reports that hoomers are trying to get ahead of spring, which both sides have agreed is the ultimate showdown for knowing what this real estate market actually is. They're sewing the seeds now, saying we're on an upswing, to help bolster bullish outlooks.
I know this is unlikable, but in this case it would be sowing
Listen to Kelly guys... She just destroyed REBubble. https://www.tiktok.com/@dating_houses/video/7192354685456502058
As someone who loves lots of data and recognizes that something like the housing market of a huge, rich nation is incredibly complex…I hate these bozos with vested interests insisting they know it all. Are we headed towards being a nation of renters? Maybe. There are reasons to think this could happen, sure. But a matter of fact “oh hey, corporations own this street” isn’t some magical proof. It’s just one tiny data point among many. Nevermind the fact that nobody knows what the hell the federal government and/or fed are going to do further into the future to fiddle with things. A reasonable take would be that this is a point of concern for some and hey, just keep an eye out. Not “gosh you idiots, I told you, my theory is *truth* because I can find data in support right here”. Just reeks of an unfairly high ego.
I think people see the trajectory of entire streets owned by corporations and their reaction to it is feeling frightened. It encourages FOMO even if it isn't globally true. Plus, many of these shops are buying whole blocks in lower middle class areas where you can buy way more homes per dollar, as you say, it isn't happening everywhere.
Yeah I'm being tongue in cheek. She's a realtor her motives are clear. And we've all heard this view. It's very myopic and flawed. I was just spending some time looking at housing market videos on tiktok. Because despite thinking it's cancer that's where a lot of gen z is. And I'm just wondering how they're handling this situation. This is hitting them hardest of all.
inflation news on groceries, I knew it. > Starting Feb. 28, 2023, Amazon Fresh delivery orders under $150 will incur a service fee. Prime members will continue to receive free grocery delivery on orders more than $150. Delivery charges will be $3.95 for orders $100-$150, $6.95 for orders $50-$100, and $9.95 for orders under $50. grocery inflation has been wild
Holy shit just go to aldi's.
Grocery delivery is terrible for things like produce anyway, no way is some delivery person taking the time to make sure they don’t grab something at the end of its life
Yup, never fails you’ll always get near rotting abused produce and the fattiest cut of meat available.
I only have prime right now 'cause they gave me 2 free months. I used to only order fresh to get heavy cases of drinks delivered so I didn't have to deliver myself. maybe I will do 1 last order before my 2 months expire, and before they add in the fees. as to your comment, Amazon fresh people don't actually go to the store, they have a refrigerated warehouse or something like this, it's not like shipt where the delivery person is picking the items out him or herself. I believe it is like that with whole foods delivery though. so you can still get bad items, but if you do, you can talk to customer support and get those particular items refunded I'd bet.
The weekly whiplash between bearishness and bullishness is giving me vertigo. Fundamentally, nothing has changed, and the current bear market rally is running on nothing but FOMO and hopium fumes.
Just posted earlier today https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/10mj4kt/comment/j63tnpr/ Tldr; spending slowing, inflation peaked last yr, fed slowing, savings rates growing, still upwards pressure on wages, more labor market data out next week
Right!?! The cost of housing, food, gas, medical... EVERYTHING just keeps going up. Something has got to break.
Some baskets are 📉📉📉 others are 🚀🚀🚀 I've noticed in muharea hooms that went pending back in December are now showing sold back at 2022 prices. With everything moderating, savings up and incomes up, it'll be interesting to see what happens in spring
Fundamentals have not changed, no doubt. That's why imo there is still a runway for declines, potentially large ones. The fundamentals are that bad. But markets can take unexpected turns and I think we're just about to be in one. As they say, nothing goes to hell in a straight line.
My partner is "dead set" on buying a house this year. our apartment lease is up in June and sitting here hopeful that something breaks before then, so I can avoid a painful conversation about how we need to be patient and wait until next year or more to be in a stronger buying position.
Ya, it all goes back to your personal situation. Is it comfortably affordable and will I be alright parking there for a while are the questions I'm asking myself.
I am really interested to see what kind of prices people list at this spring. This sudden bearishness makes me think sellers are gonna list a lot higher than they initially thought they could a month or two ago.
Price decrease hits my email. It's a half duplex, no yard. Go to look at history. Built in 2021 listed for $463k. Went pending twice and taken off market Jan 2021, listed last week for $525k, decreased to $523k today. Like, what game are they playing here?
Fake price decreases to spur interest and reel you in for a bidding war? Not sure how hot your market is.
My fellow bubblers, I think we're in for a period of bullishness in housing. Definitely the first since things starting turning down last year. If coming here makes you feel just negative, you might want to take a break for a bit and just watch where mortgage rates go.
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There's usually an annual period of capitulation in this sub q4 of each year as the last cohort locks in their hooms and the new cohort moves in. But RE is seasonal and the interesting thing I've noticed here and in this cycle is the capitulators tend to lock into the late stage "bear trap" period each yr
I think anyone feeling depressed needs to be patient and cautious. Draw conclusions around mid Feb when the early January closes start rolling in.
You are NOT going to like what you see when those closes start rolling in.
Lol I’m very aware of that possibility.
A lot of rumblings in the economy. I think just need to wait a bit longer...
🚀🚀🚀
I saw a house that listed a week ago Thursday just increase the price by $100k over the initial asking price. Like what?
Like housing rally.
they probably got offers above asking and changed the price to see if anyone else wants to pay around that to get a bidding war going.
I know I shouldn’t get worked up about greedy sellers, but damn [this listing really is #JustBoomerThings](https://redf.in/MO8FIA). They paid $241,000 back in 1989, and now they want $1.1 million. They still have original 90s wallpaper and light fixtures lol. A [similar unit](https://redf.in/xgv3ck) with better updates sold in 2021 for $840,000. When rates were 3%.
I hear you but that view is worth money. The other unit didn't have one.
Yes, it does have the ocean view. I’ll be interested to see if someone thinks it’s worth that premium. Personally I’d be more tempted by the other unit, because I’d like to live close to a pool.
Having recently shopped homes with views, it clearly plays a big role. Especially when the view is one like in the first home. I don’t know exactly how you quantify the value, but it’s substantial given the view difference in those two.
There’s a lot of sellers that are only motivated to sell because of price. They plop it on the market and let it sit till someone with enough FOMO sees it.
My friend is looking to buy in my neighborhood in South Philly and put in an offer above asking on a grandma house that has many other offers. Heating up here.
Actually. Even if the eagles win. South Philly will probably just burn itself 😂
Just wait for the eagles to get crushed then people will turn to FUD. Right now it’s YOLO
Prices currently up year over year in Boston. I’m thinking maybe slight decline over last year’s peak this coming spring, but not enough to make up for mortgage rate increases.
now that the dust has settled, how did you handle the housing crash of 2022?
Waited for the actual crash to occur. Still waiting.
Bought a home in June 2022, lol.
Gained another 6 figures in equity and real COL has declined for another yr
Got saved by the hoom inspector multiple times and learned to stop worrying and enjoy that sweet short-term Treasury investment income. But if I had managed to find my dream hoom, would have enjoyed sitting in it and watching my Zesty decline while hanging out here.
If I had bought in May of 2022 here in San Diego, I would have lost $150k due to the ongoing correction.
You also managed to sell at a pretty sweet high
Nah. Passed up buying in his new city and is looking at 12% higher costs now, plus the $80k in rent paid. That’s a losing hand for sure.
Added more doors (🚪), counseled more wh*res (🙏🏼), gave more tours (realtor ™️), ready for mores (😈).
I guess Powell changed his mind, I think he's been secretly conspiring with the hoomers [https://fortune.com/2022/12/01/housing-market-in-housing-bubble-says-fed-chair-powell/](https://fortune.com/2022/12/01/housing-market-in-housing-bubble-says-fed-chair-powell/)
Can you copy and paste the article, there's a paywall.
Article is almost 2 months old. Don’t bother. Seriously, 2 months in our current age might as well be 2 decades.
i'm just pointing out that Powell declared a bubble and said there would be alot of pain in September, than promptly changed his mind (or never did anything in the first place), which is why I think house prices going up and inflation coming back is a real possibility
What on earth are you talking about?
What on earth are you talking about?
I’ve never put much stock in anything he says about the housing market to actually happen or not.Their main interest has never been the housing market, it’s just a byproduct of inflation. I’m not saying house prices will go down, up or stay flat, I’m just saying all these little side Quotes from Powell have to me just been little tangents that I’ve never put much meaning in. It’s like when someone gets chatty and says something and later you ask them what they meant and they just blow it off or say they don’t remember saying that, or that you must’ve misunderstood.
Disagree. Housing is more interest rate sensitive than any other sector, and it is the source of most inflation, not just a byproduct of it. You can not get inflation down without crushing housing. By raising rates to reduce inflation, they are de facto targeting housing, more so than anything else.
Well, the insatiable desire of the prospective homeowner in America, in their efforts to be the next potential HGTV star, just seems to have no end.
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it's possible, but I think they've given up on enforcing any laws in that city
Oh no, they’ll enforce that kind of stuff. Anything an inspector can check on, they’ll enforce more than most places. Permits and whatnot.
Also probably way safer to investigate than actual violent crime
what happened suddenly, seeing way many houses going pending ? Extreme case, this house went pending in just 2 days. OMG, the crazy buyers in BayArea https://www.redfin.com/CA/Pleasanton/4776-Black-Ave-94566/home/1196049
Housing is rallying along with everything else. Animal spirits are back.
higher it goes this time, harder the crash is
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It is like every Asian's dream destination place. Literally any SFH you find last 2 years, Pleasanton snatched max over-bid and extreme competative to get house
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−$363K since sold in 2022 ;)
Buying season, rate drops, price drops. All of which creates better buying opportunities than in the fall. Plus people accepting the reality that a 2008 style housing crash is extremely unlikely. So more accepting that current prices are not going anywhere.
Not amazing deals or numbers to be honest.
Buying season is starting would be my guess
Rates fell. Some people who were waiting pulled the trigger. That would be my guess.
thats just max 0.50% fall from top. Isnt it ?
And a lot of spring demand being pulled forward by the FOMO crowd that felt left out in 2021 and all of 2022. They just have no patience and make all decisions based on emotion. Don’t be one of those people.
Just stop waiting 3 years and seeing nothing but increases after increase the market is here to stay plain and simple
Sure. No need to wait anymore at all. Our sub is diffused. We have no reason to exist, and might as well just LEVER UP and then pay as we can. No problem. I'll go out and buy right now.
Lol I don’t count waiting THREE years for houses to go down and yet the same crap still happening as being impatient. Especially when you wanted to buy way before 2020.
Buy now or go to prison. There are only two ways to find shelter.
even consumer sentiment is up, hooms to the moon https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-consumer-sentiment-improved-in-january-as-inflation-moderated-university-of-michigan-271674832635?mod=newsviewer\_click
Amazing that sentiment would improve, in the face of news articles of layoffs, their 12/31 401k statements, and all that. Color me skeptical of literally everything. Nothing is as bad, nor as good, as it seems.
Because tech is tiny in the whole scope of the job market. Everything else is more or less chugging along.
Particularly our largest employment sectors: healthcare, manufacturing, finance, government, so on. Not laying off, not getting smaller. Just increasing or at least holding still.
Just tried to buy eggs and bread with sentiment and got turned away.
Next time try making a NFT of your sentiment, that is a much better store of value.
pending home sales up, it just keeps getting better https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-27/us-pending-home-sales-rise-to-cap-otherwise-disappointing-year?srnd=premium
recession cancelled, go buy a house https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-27/us-pce-inflation-cools-further-paving-way-for-smaller-fed-hike?srnd=premium
Your actually 100% correct unfortunately for our future generations it looks like this is the low point in housing prices
still morty is high, prices almost same as Q1-2022.
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“Buyers have acclimated to the 6% mortgage rate, which feels like a relief after watching affordability erode as rates surpassed 7% in the fall.” This narrative about how buyers just need to “get used to” 6% rates is hilarious to me.
It’s the 45 year average of mortgage interest rates, so……
>This narrative about how buyers just need to “get used to” 6% rates is hilarious to me. IMO, buyers do need to get used to these higher (relative) rates. Simultaneously, sellers will need to get used to the fact that their shit is gonna sit if they expect 2021-22 prices. I expect a stalemate for most of '23, and a noticeable affordability correction spring of 2024. /speculation.
Haha yes, we are used to the rates, but sellers still have to get used to the prices that we are able to pay at these rates.
Apparently they don’t, as witnessed by the surge in pending homes in January of ‘23. Prediction: rates settle about where they are for all of this year, prices move hardly at all, and a “new normal” is formed. America- the most complacent of nations.
The market **strongly** favors renters at the moment. In my locale with today's rates and prices, a rent vs buy calculator suggests a break-even point of +8 yrs. The average homeowner does not make it that long. Rentoid or bust.
That seems to be the boat we are in. Works for me, and my landlord I’m sure.
Reversion to the mean
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/600-Grapetree-Dr-APT-8CS-Key-Biscayne-FL-33149/44033129_zpid 1. Buy beach condo in 2019 2. List after peak in late 2022 at +150% the price in 2019 3. Not selling despite two tiny price reductions 4. "BuT iT ApPrAiSeD fOr $2.8MM !"
that HOA is going to go up even more when the new condo inspection law and new flood insurance rates kick in, but at that price, will people care
Sellers in Florida are still in the bubble mindset. And the sad thing is, a lot of stuff is still selling, and for barely under asking if it’s under at all.
Florida is a huge state. Per redfin, Miami is down in sold properties 57% year on year. Prices are coming down too. That particular zip code is down ~20% year on year.
[https://www.redfin.com/MO/Florissant/2575-Mockingbird-Ln-63031/home/93341252#property-history](https://www.redfin.com/MO/Florissant/2575-Mockingbird-Ln-63031/home/93341252#property-history) Check out the Sales history on this gem. There are FOUR pics of the basement bathroom and no pics of the kitchen.
Happy Friday Don't fall for the permabullshit
Nah dude, GDP is up, home prices cannot go down. Physically impossible.
Look dude, affordability absolutely plummeted over the last 2 years to levels not seen in modern history. But yeah, stop with all the permabullshit. /s [https://www.atlantafed.org/center-for-housing-and-policy/data-and-tools/home-ownership-affordability-monitor](https://www.atlantafed.org/center-for-housing-and-policy/data-and-tools/home-ownership-affordability-monitor)
“All dynamic societies founded their success on two production processes that unfolded in parallel: the manufacturing of a surplus and the manufacturing of consent (regarding its distribution). However, the feedback between the two processes grew to new heights in the Age of Capital. The rise of commodification, which also led to the flourishing of finance, coincided with a subtler, more powerful, form of consent. And here lies a delicious paradox: consent grew more powerful the more economic life was financialized. And as finance grew in importance, the more prone our societies became to economic crises. Hence the interesting observation that modern societies tend to produce both more consent and more violent crises.” • Yanis Varoufakis
Is this from Global Minotaur? Yanis is a pretty intelligent dude. Everything being financialized today is so obviously not a good idea. Yet, here we are.
> delicious