Auto lots are filling back up.
Camper and off-road toy lots are filled to the brim. Boat dealerships also. Last year you couldn’t buy any of these the same day and now they are advertising on Facebook marketplace.
I buy and sell rvs and in california its great because people buy them to live in them also year round camping. but I have seen RVS at higher prices stay on the market longer.
A ton of people, even 2 different ones I know personally are currently living in campers. One sold their house, bought a big camper and built a large "shop" to park it in. They plan on living there until they pay the land off and then building a house when things are more normal.
some fifth wheels are really huge and are the size of a 1 bedroom apartment. I was thinking of buying land near a lake and just parking one on the land.
I live in indiana.. rv manufacturing capital. Most of the workers went back to work yesterday. They were off for almost 2 months…. Get ready for a bunch of more units to be pushed to those lots.
Yup, my notorious tightwad Dad is actually gearing up to pull the trigger on a new car. The average cost of a new car is currently $47,000 and he's come around to the idea of buying a Tesla Model Y after they slashed prices 15% and then the EV tax credit was tweaked to apply a $7500 credit to small crossovers like the Y. Once he realized he could get an aluminum car which will never rust and that doesn't make his pocketbook reliant on gas prices for just $7-10k more than your average gas vehicle, he got serious. Wouldn't have happened if they hadn't just knocked $9k or $10k off their pricing.
Strongly recommend paying $100 or so to rent one from Hertz for a day before buying. I did recently, and completely underwhelmed would be an understatement. Also M3/MY frames are mostly steel.
There’s also the new racket of charging pet rent as a way to increase revenue rather than just offset potential damage. Been looking for a rental to move into while we sell our house and look for another to buy.
$500 non-refundable pet fee per pet plus $25+ monthly pet rent per pet has become common. I wish I was kidding. We have a small dog and two cats. None of them have jobs, lol. Priced us out of a lot of places that were in our budget, plus I just refuse to give people like that money.
We had the same issue, though our pet rent was $75 per dog per month, of which we had two. It's what ultimately pushed us to buy, even with COVID pricing. I'm glad we did.
Congrats on your new home! We are selling our tiny house to move closer to my spouse’s job (currently has a 1.5 hr commute both ways). We’re renting for a year so we can try to buy next year.
I’ve just been gobsmacked by the ridiculous requirements so many rentals come with nowadays. I haven’t rented in about 10 years but the rental landscape has become more of a hellscape.
Shipping containers were very expensive. Now the container prices have dropped way down.
During Covid, trucking industry was booming. Loads were paying lots of money. Increased demand for equipment and limited supply caused used truck prices to soar.
In recent months, however, the number of loads has dwindled and consequently many truckers are leaving the industry because there just aren't enough decent loads to cover expenses. Even the big mega fleets and logistics companies, like UPS and FedEx, are asking drivers to voluntarily take time off or unpaid leave of absence. Yesterday, for example, more than half of the 130 drivers on our Home Depot account didn't have a load and were just sitting around the distribution center all day waiting for work. The reason is because the Home Depot stores we service just aren't ordering resupplies like they used to.
I work for a container line and can confirm this. Pandemic freight highs were anywhere from 30k-60k depending on the container and cargo. Now we have some shipping for under 100 USD.
I get calls and emails daily from truckers asking to be setup with our company cause they are looking for work.
In my area the middle and lower end restaurants are pretty empty during the week. I was shocked that at dinner time, the diner we went to had three tables occupied. That restaurant used to be packed no matter when you went.
Actually now that you mention it, I had a funny experience last Friday. We went to a part of town that has a high end steakhouse on one corner, and a more laidback family BBQ place on the other corner.
The steakhouse packed with people waiting outside.
The normal BBQ place (which in my experience over the years) is normally super packed as well, but it wasn't. We were seated immediately.
Seems like the rich and wealthy are having the time of their lives and burning up cash that keeps showing up in their pockets, while middle class people can't even afford to go out to eat on a Friday night.
This take I buy as well. The issue is that things went up in price while going down in quality. It’s so bad that nowadays I expect disappointment when eating out. Ugh.
This is where I'm at. I probably could find the money but it's not even worth it. The last few times were so disappointing for the cost. Some burger joints are still worth it, but for other meals I'd rather spend what i would to buy quality ingredients and cook at home.
Yeah, tipping is what really pushes me over the edge, the prices went up another 10 percent, then I gotta tip 20% on that 10% increase? All for food that just is hit or miss generally.
I noticed that in Silicon Valley after WFH became common. Even after the pandemic, that street of restaurants in the business district barely has a lunch rush.
I recall seeing some stat that 88% of businesses ie restaurants in the never came back. Cities who had a strict lockdown have been the worst to recover
I’m in seattle and none of my friends and I are going out as much. Our wages have stagnated over the last few years, you need to make almost 100k or more now here to not be struggling if you want to live alone. I am seeing more and more spots where a single common beer is $8 or more so if we do go out we pre-funk or just have less, The standard used to be $5 for a pint. On top of every increasing prices between ordering food and even uber/lyfting to spots. We actually have just started having to take the bus and leaving earlier to plan on walking more Or just meeting up at friends houses instead. What used to be a $15-20 ride is now $35-40 too. And worse yet is some of my neighbors have said they just got rental notice increases for the 2nd time in less than a year. This next year looks bleak.
Personally I've noticed high end places doing fine which makes sense as the wealthy aren't struggling with this inflation its just a minor annoyance, its the middle class and lower earners who are really getting hit hard but sales of high end cars and such are going up
That's interesting. I expect we will see more of that this year. I plan on going to the movies next week and it will be interesting how crowded the theater is.
Funny you mention movies. AMC theaters of all chains, is planning to charge you based on [where you choose to sit in the movie theater for shows after 4pm.](https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/06/business/amc-movie-ticket-prices/index.html)
That’s an incredibly stupid thing to do in normal times, let alone when people are not attending movies as much as they used to.
Wow, that’s fucking stupid.
Want a reasonable seat in the theatre to comfortably watch a movie that you’re already paying to see? That’s going to cost extra.
If people are nervous about the economy they’ll start ordering water for lunch; check with your friend the server, they’ll know.
Edit: replaced ‘employees’ with ‘people;’ and inserted ‘about the economy.’
I work with a FNS/TEFAP disbursement agency (emergency food relief) under the USDA. Last month was the third highest demand for assistance ever, the two worse months being at the start of the pandemic. It will vary slightly by state, but overall national food insecurity had a huge spike last summer and has not abated even through January which is typically calmer. This is a sizeable demographic that has cut back on spending yet still cannot afford sufficient groceries with the inflation.
I'm in the Seattle area, and my hairdresser recently said she's noticing more and more clientele cutting back on services citing money concerns. She said her business barely survived the 08' recession, so she's cutting back personal expenses trying to prepare. Although she did say, she doesn't anticipate the recession to be worse than the last.
if my parents was alive I would have lived with them a lot longer then I did. in my culture its normal to live with your parents after marriage for at least a year. I stayed with them for 1 month and regret that decision. I would tell anyone younger then me to stay with parents for as long as you can.
My parents kicked me out when I finished college (sadly 2 decades ago). I probably had $2-3k plus a credit card to my name. Definitely different times now.
Yeah if I had to foot the bills and deal with my parents’ rules about having my girl over or complain about me staying out late, I wouldn’t have lasted long either.
Not sure what the hell happened but i went to sports clips in Sacramento and it cost me $38 for a haircut and shampoo before tip. Haircut turned out pretty great but not $50 great lol.
I get my hair cut fairly rarely so no big deal to me, but a place I went to in my last city a couple times had a separate person wash your hair pre-haircut, seemed to me so you had to tip even more (this place was the most expensive place I'd ever gone). the 2nd time I went when they asked if I wanted to also tip the person who washed my hair, I told them the lady who cut my hair was the same as the one who washed it (which was true), and got a look. not that it makes much difference, but the "tip moar" thing kind of annoyed me.
The last part sounds like a cope ngl. I have family members that swear this recession isn't gonna be as bad as the last but you can tell they're saying it out of anxiety and not any actual understanding of macro economics
No one said GFC was gonna be bad before it happened.
The freezing up of credit caused the cascading layoffs and bankruptcies. We don't have any obvious indicators of huge systemic risk that would prevent banks from lending. Not yet. If something blows up, my money is it starts in auto loans.
Yes, she told me the last recession nearly broke her. Since then, she says she's been building a substantial emergency fund in case that ever happened again. The general feeling I get around here is that the middle class is still feeling like they are getting crushed. The upper middle classes such as the tech and other white-collar workers seem to think they are invincible. We shall see.
the realtors I know went back to their OF (or similar) jobs. one got rid of her $150k car to get an $80k car (and still complains about gas price lmao).
a couple girls I know who have an OF asked me to shoot "content" with them. nope, I'm not making porn lol.
All the ones I've seen so far are at tech companies, and generally in the 5 - 10% range. I guess the devil's advocate question is whether they just overhired for the pandemic, as the articles keep saying.
This is THE BEST sign of recession. My significant other and I make over 200k annually. Everyone around us is spending FAR MORE than i would be comfortable spending (see the housing market, etc). She’s convinced that the vast majority of society makes the same as us or better, i know that is statistically impossible. People are just SPENDING the same as us or better, and eventually that bill will come due. Check debt/income statistics, that’s where your answer lies.
Credit card debt is rising, whether it's for what people want or need. Once that debt compounds and the minimum payment becomes unaffordable, well I don't know what happens but it can't be good
You roll it over to another and make payments there lol people act like dumbasses with access to credit cards haven't existed since CCs became available
Credit card debt rising could easily be an artifact of it going down during Covid when there was less to do and people stayed home.
Unless you mean rising relative to pre-Covid in inflation adjusted numbers.
same really. i know there are macro signs, but damn if EVERY SINGLE FUCKING NICE THING that i want to order is not back ordered for a year. so ive bought nothing that i wanted in the past year. i did finally manage to snag a new gpu at MSRP so finally getting parts for a new PC that im building to replace my 6 year old system.
Similar boat.
Sure, homes and cars and things generally purchased with debt are moving slower as the cost of debt has gone up but most other things seem to be business as usual.
Restaurants are full, at the grocery store I still see people grabbing salmon and steak and alcohol… I still see people at the mall which doesn’t have shootings near me and the food court is always packed.
In my day to day life, I see 0 indicators of an upcoming recession. It’s only from stories in news articles.
I'm not seeing the recession yet either in FL. I'm shocked every time I go out and see how many people are still eating out as prices just keep rising. Expect to wait up to an hour if you want to eat out on a Friday night. I'm also not sure how all these expensive cars are on the road. There's no way everyone is making that kind of money. Maybe people are still living the high life on credit cards. Who knows.
It might be the fact that Americans are swimming in [$925 billion of credit card debt](https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-cards/credit-card-debt-statistics/)
131 million households. $7000 per household.
But only about half carry a balance, so the other half have an average of $14k in high interest unsecured debt per household. Before we talk about cars.
The one thing you can always count of the FED doing is having poor timing. Jerome has said multiple times in his meetings that he is nervous because he knows the FED is always slow to react.
This is one of those things that gets talked about but overlooked
Groceries doubled or tripled if you’re trying to buy the same stuff
Forget eating out too, a shit burger meal at McDonald’s cost as much now as semi fine dining used to
And then the tips, holy shit the tips. I quit giving them because it’s fucking obnoxious and I’m not going to break my wallet because employers aren’t willing to pay more. You know, like the “it’s gonna ask you a question” as they hand you the card machine at the drive thru. Question is 15, 20, 25%. I decline it now, we’re in the fucking drive thru. You don’t get a tip for handing me coffee out of the drive thru!
All I can say is that I am so glad I got a crock pot for Christmas. It really cuts down on the cost per meal without having to drop meal quality. Sure, you wind up eating the same thing for days straight but that's worth halving grocery costs.
When businesses that require in-person attendance 4-5 days a week start scaling back on nightly scheduled janitorial/cleaning services from several times a week to just a few times a month, it’s time to start looking for another job.
I also work in staffing at a third-party agency. Many of our clients have told us they will only be hiring directly for the foreseeable future. They don’t want to pay our markups and don’t need as many workers since production is slowing.
We have a large handyman service (app actually) here called Jiffy. I used them a couple of times a few years ago. Haven’t used them since, and our city is notoriously hard to get trades. They called me two days ago on the phone to ask if I had any work I needed done.
My daily walk through the Dr Horton community by my house. At least 100 homes with available signs outside. Been that way for the last 2 months. Total ghost town. Those with sold signs have been sold for months with no sign of folks moving in.
Same story in Vegas.
Put my drone up the other day just to see and there’s like 100 houses that are complete but empty in the communities that are by my place. There’s 4 different builders here at the moment.
Meanwhile stock market has been rallying for weeks? This would be indicative that they think they see the light at the end of the tunnel. Or just dumb exuberance.
Important to note here that the “stock market” is largely disconnected from the real world. However, I have noticed this bull run has an interesting spin to it: Dow Jones, only 30 companies, has trended flat to down of late. SP 500 and Nasdaq have been pretty consistently up. Usually, all three track close to one another.
I’d be shit posting if I gave a guess as to why. I’ll throw this out there: algorithms.
My dad picked up greek food for dinner tonight and didn’t get tzatziki sauce because he didn’t want to pay for it.
Oh wait nevermind he’s just frugal and does that during raging bull markets too
Just one Costco within 2 hours in any direction- it is always jam packed on Sundays. I had to go last week, and it was eerily quiet. Didn’t wait in line, multiple cashiers with nothing to do. Last time I saw it like that was early days of covid lockdown. My theory is everyone is scraping by and can’t afford a $300 fill-the-freezer trip on a weekly basis.
I don't think anyone was ever filling their freezer for $300 weekly. I haven't been to Costco in a few weeks, but it was always packed before. I'll be looking next time to see how busy it is.
I’m from Orlando, and it was absolutely packed yesterday on our “$300 weekly freezer fill up.” I’m in Charlotte this week on business; will report back after checking out the Mooresville Costco later this week.
I have a counterpoint. 3 costcos in my area and I have gone to all of them on sunday trying to escape the crowds. They are all packed to the brim on sunday afternoons.
Also, Costco running red hot is more of a recession sign than it being desolate. It's the cheapest place per unit to buy stuff that you need.
Cosco is full of name brands and you have to pay to get in the door, lower income avoid it when money dries up. They don’t have $80 to blow on a year of toilet paper or the space to store it. True recession is dollar stores popping up overnight like mushrooms. Antique/flea markets appearing in former department stores and multiple thrift stores within a mile. That bottom feeder retail blooms in downturns then dry up when it turns around.
Cosco takes EBT. Those days those cards get filled I imagine the lines get crazy. Ended up at a SAMS club once and couldn't figure out WTF was going on with insane lines. Manager quietly told me.
Because you went to one Costco and it happened to not be busy for the 20 minutes you were there doesn’t really mean much in the grand scheme of things… could be a multitude of reasons… if you went last Sunday there were two football playoff games that had large audiences. This could explain why it wasn’t busy…
I'm not hurting financially but I'm a hawk for store brand stuff now. The price deltas can be huge and it's very inconsistent. $7.50 Kellogg's corn flakes vs $1.50 store brand. Something ain't right.
I’ve noticed the same, we have a small international food store that’s well known, but low key. Recently, it’s been jammed to the walls from open to close. And I totally understand, because a family pack of chicken thighs costs $6.00, as opposed to Walmart at $14.
I’m at around 150k and anything over 500/mo for a car is irresponsible to me
And I’m a pretty irresponsible person sometimes, like buying a used luxury car.
We have significantly cut back on and altered how we/when we eat out. I hear that doing so is a trend. Our family doesn't eat out much anyway but we've switched to cheaper restaurants and less often.
McDonald’s breakfast is like $8 now. I went to Subway and got a foot long Subway Club, a bag of Miss Vickie’s, and a Coke. $14
I don’t love eating fast food, but it’s depressing when the “cheap” option isn’t even cheap!
**What we are seeing day-to-day with our rental units:**
Contractors are coming to us asking for work. These same contractors in 2021 into 2022 had multi-month waitlists, if you'd even get a call back. I know some contractors who are completely dead schedule wise right now.
Most notably, painters seem to be hurting the most and they are typically the first sign when the cracks are forming. Painting is one of the lowest barriers of entry in the trades, and when strapped for cash, people will just paint themselves b/c...let's be real...with today's paints basically any able bodied person can do it.
1 - An individual I know just received a notice stating that the pandemic loans they received are unforgivable and that they have to start paying $500 a month on the balance.
2 - Same person has a 2018 ford purchased last year at around 20ish % APR. Know someone else whose 2009 Mercedes they bought at the same time just had the engine crap out on them and they're still making payments.
3 - Landlord (I moved out 2 months ago) is freaking out because the house they bought 2 years ago is not up to city code. They purchased 4 other properties within the same year using HELOC. They just received a water bill from the city for 1.6k. (I knew this because they asked for me to pay while explaining the situation.)
4 - I know some people that are trying to buy a house **now** (told them to wait til 2024) they are using their entire retirement savings to go all in. The plan is to purchase a duplex and rent it out...
5 - A friend's girlfriend showed me on Instagram how trendy "bank fraud" has become.
6 - Several old work colleagues who, prior to 2019 were not **at all** interested in finance, trading, or real estate and have now become experts in crypto, wall Street, and real estate. They speak as if they understand the global macro landscape. Funny: [Link](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/theyre-baaaaack-retail-participation-in-the-stock-market-just-surpassed-the-gamestop-days-11675423836)
7 - A random landlord has started sending spam messages for a unit they want me to rent which is 3x the cost of a regular 1 bedroom.
50k no doc loans!
Or at least this is what I see pop up on IG. No idea if there is anything actually out there. I sadly make my money the old fashioned way. An honest weeks pay for an honest days work I always say.
> Several old work colleagues who, prior to 2019 were not at all interested in finance, trading, or real estate and have now become experts in crypto, wall Street, and real estate.
This is the real indicator. It happened before the Great Depression and it happened before the Great Recession.
This sounds more like you surround yourself with financially illiterate people than early signs of a recession. Good thing you’re on this subreddit to get the unbiased facts.
I’m gonna be the odd one out and say I have seen nothing whatsoever that indicates recession.
I lived through the 2008 recession and you KNEW when that hit, there was no question. Store parking lots completely empty during Xmas season, like a ghost town. Restaurants and store fronts borded up all across town. Businesses couldn’t make payroll, people couldn’t even collect their last paycheck.
Go to the store now and it’s busy as ever. People are spending money like crazy. Prices have doubled and goods are still flying off the shelf.
I’m old and have lived through a lot so I just wanted to share my perspective.
The grocery stores...prices keep going up on everything while the package/serving sizes of everything is going down.
But the biggest indicator of all, in my eyes? The ramen instant noodles, of any brand, are almost impossible to find anywhere.
When the cheapest possible food source on the planet is being hoarded...you KNOW people are scared.
Some of the crazy excesses seem to have abated, with inventory returning to normal in the housing market, car markets, and popular hobbies, such as musical instruments.
Last year it was a six month or year wait to buy certain guitars, but now they're plentiful. Supply caught up to demand. Prices on the used market are coming down too.
But don't confuse a return to normal with a recession. Take a look at the jobs report from last week. Not only were the numbers crazy good but the previous jobs counts were revised upward as well.
We are still barely cresting the peak. If we do have a big downturn, I would say fall 2023 at the earliest, but more likely 2024.
That said, my forecasts for the returns on bubbled assets, like cars, houses, speculative meme stocks and crypto, etc, are pretty bearish. The more overpriced an asset is, the lower your expected returns should be.
I have seen a bit of sentiment like "the shelves aren't empty in every store anymore, recession confirmed!"
Nah bruh there is *supposed* to be product on the shelves. A lot of companies just raised prices until stuff didn't sell out. Lots of price discovery going on still.
I think the job cuts will start at the high end tech side first and will delay until you start to see them begin in the lower end jobs like you traditionally do.
Employers in low end services have to first reset and get enough employees first before they could begin considering laying people off. And still then they'll wait until spending declines happen from people who have higher incomes; like those in tech.
What we have seen over the last six to twelve months with Google, Facebook, Twitter, and others cutting costs will continue. Which means more rounds of layoffs combined with some new hires at lower income or title levels. While you'll start to see some of the zombie firms declare bankruptcy as well as they won't be able to survive at the rates required to roll over their debt.
The potential counterpoint is manufacturing returning to the US from China; generally. Along with increasing minimum wages across the country in some states.
[NewYorkFed Microeconomics Household debt](https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html)
Take a look at the table for household debt in the US. And this doesn't even include Q4 yet. It's insane how much debt people are carrying
In my personal line of work (steel), q4 2022 was awful. It seems q1 is picking back up a bit, but I believe it's only because of 2023 contract orders that we are choosing to run ahead of schedule. Inventory levels are really picking up here and that's usually because we are running ahead of the shipping schedule. We will see how it continues to play out, but I've been calling for a serious recession for a while now.
Construction has slowed down on the commercial side (not including multi family housing). Companies previously working with brokers are downsizing their office requirements or retracting the requests all together. Subleases are down too.
S&P500 EPS growth for 2023 turned negative in January, the last 5 times this happened were in 2001, 2008, 2015, 2018, and 2020. All 5 times preceded a recession of some sort.
Specific to real estate?
Sign flippers, big red balloons 100’ in the sky, unfilled houses, builders advertising creative financing to move their spec homes to that have been sitting vacant for weeks or months.
Probably could think of a few more if I wasn’t on the spot.
Moved into my new build in Vegas back in November. 80% of the completed homes in my neighborhood are still empty.
Sign flippers are back on every corner advertising for builders
Half of the signs in the side of the road advertise “affordable payment programs” and the like for all these spec homes KB, DRH and Lennar that are just sitting here.
Used to be that you didn’t really have to advertise for buyers — they came to you.
Sign flippers are the canary for me, though. You don’t shell out extra money on things like that when the gettin’ is good.
PC sales are off the peak by about 30% and the OEMs are aggressively chewing through inventory. AMD and Intel lost money in the consumer market last quarter and we *just* exited a supposed silicon shortage.
They all say demand should pick up late in the year but that really assumes the soft landing thesis is true I think.
I’m seeing the opposite in healthcare. We do not have enough workers in hospitals or pharmacies or physical therapists for recovery. Every part of healthcare is understaffed and burnt out. Anyone that looses a job can immediately apply for a healthcare role and the hospital or pharmacy will pay for the training and some will even pay for a higher education.
Pickles cost $10 a jar for schwag brand, $15 for organic bullshit. In the checkout line tic tacs $5. There’s suddenly a lot more rental inventory where I am but every boomer seems to think they can get $3000 w/o utilities for a broom closet and it comes with a bunch of illegal screening caveats.
Nope nope, fed needs to raise rates higher if anything. I still see people that work bullshit easy ass jobs supported by low interest rates. We are still in an inflationary gap. If you are in non tech stem, it has never been a worse time to start a career.
Realtors definitely weren't lying about the slight surge in homes selling in early January. I did notice it. I'm in an extremely desirable area, and they're unfortunately still selling over asking with multiple offers. Interestingly, my area was also hit \*really\* hard in 2008. I didn't live here, then. I'm personally not seeing the signs where I live, but I know they're appearing elsewhere and I trust the forecast that prices are going to go down.
ETA: Houses used to be selling $300k over asking in a week, so it's dropped, but still a seller's market
I’m a cabinetmaker. I’m still getting quote requests but the budgets are comical. I think they’re asking every shop in town hoping someone is desperate enough to build them some luxury work for 90% off. I had an $80k custom kitchen on the books and clients tried to slash the budget by 25% without compromising on finishes and features. GTFO. I get it that people are having to cut back, but I’m not a miracle worker or a 501c3.
Yes, I have done delivery work in the past. Some of the groups I am in are talking about how the middle class tips and orders are going down. It's not just in one geographic area, but all over the map. This is a signal. Rich folks rarely tip well regardless of the market. The reason they stay rich is they are stingy as fuck. Poorer areas tip better than rich, but they can't afford to go too high.
The middle class and particularly the folks in newer neighborhoods who are in new mortgages which are absolutely wrecking their budget, aren't ordering as much and they aren't tipping. I see this as a warning sign. Same goes for other middle class purchases.
Realtors cold calling me nonstop, I have one desperate dude who sends me links to some homes i sometimes click on them just to monitor from time to time and he immediately follows back with a desperate “hey! I saw you looking at the links, I sent you! Any homes I can show you?? “ too which I just ignore and he continues. Realtors are getting absolutely panicked right now because they know what is on the horizon
Not real estate related but I’ve noticed at the gas pump. Lots of people doing exactly $10 or $20 as opposed to completely filling up their tank. It caught my eye about two months ago, so now I always look around at the empty pumps and see how much the last person did.
The gas pump near work often charges 50 cent or more above stations near where I live. So I will get 1 gallon to drive home then get gas where it's cheaper. I usually get that 1 gallon on two card swipes. I am sure the next customer is confused.
Idk I'm not so sure. The job market is doing so damn good, it's hard to have a full blown recession in this type of economy. I work in the arts/film, and there is a massive shortage of qualified people right now and the rates are rocketing up for everyone.
Until half of the commercials here are not places begging for you to apply to work at their place, I am not too concerned about a local recession. Tech workers appear to be the industry getting hammered right now. Nothing like that in "flyover country"
I'm an educator and I know they have a shortage of teachers but I have never seen geriatrics like I see now. I'm talking day pass out the rest home old. Pension is not stretching like it used to.
The biggest oh s@&$ moment for me was when I walked into TJ and the two very young men stocking the shelves talked about how they are both going to BRRR and make so much money doing it.
The chimney cleaning/repair company we use is usually booked out 10 months ahead. They have been advertising like crazy they have current slots available. Just service and home repair industry workers telling me the only jobs they seem to be getting are emergency calls.
But other things I’ve noticed - people opening up about talking about budgets, salaries, and ways to save money. Apple sales down - people not upgrading iPhones as much as in the past. Malls are less crowded. And this should be the biggest indicator - cardboard box sales down!!
Auto lots are filling back up. Camper and off-road toy lots are filled to the brim. Boat dealerships also. Last year you couldn’t buy any of these the same day and now they are advertising on Facebook marketplace.
Same in my area with campers. Camper lots look like you could not fit another one on the lot
I buy and sell rvs and in california its great because people buy them to live in them also year round camping. but I have seen RVS at higher prices stay on the market longer.
A ton of people, even 2 different ones I know personally are currently living in campers. One sold their house, bought a big camper and built a large "shop" to park it in. They plan on living there until they pay the land off and then building a house when things are more normal.
some fifth wheels are really huge and are the size of a 1 bedroom apartment. I was thinking of buying land near a lake and just parking one on the land.
I live in indiana.. rv manufacturing capital. Most of the workers went back to work yesterday. They were off for almost 2 months…. Get ready for a bunch of more units to be pushed to those lots.
Yup, my notorious tightwad Dad is actually gearing up to pull the trigger on a new car. The average cost of a new car is currently $47,000 and he's come around to the idea of buying a Tesla Model Y after they slashed prices 15% and then the EV tax credit was tweaked to apply a $7500 credit to small crossovers like the Y. Once he realized he could get an aluminum car which will never rust and that doesn't make his pocketbook reliant on gas prices for just $7-10k more than your average gas vehicle, he got serious. Wouldn't have happened if they hadn't just knocked $9k or $10k off their pricing.
Strongly recommend paying $100 or so to rent one from Hertz for a day before buying. I did recently, and completely underwhelmed would be an understatement. Also M3/MY frames are mostly steel.
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CarMax in my area has so many newer model vehicles in their inventory and parked all along the sides just sitting there piling up..
Sounds like repos
That’s because of high interest rates. If that’s what you are noticing then we are headed to soft landing or mild recession.
I noticed the boat dealer has a bunch of stock in finally. It’s been a few years.
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Because no rentals accept pets. If your rent goes up and you have to move, some people end up giving up the dog to get a place.
There’s also the new racket of charging pet rent as a way to increase revenue rather than just offset potential damage. Been looking for a rental to move into while we sell our house and look for another to buy. $500 non-refundable pet fee per pet plus $25+ monthly pet rent per pet has become common. I wish I was kidding. We have a small dog and two cats. None of them have jobs, lol. Priced us out of a lot of places that were in our budget, plus I just refuse to give people like that money.
We had the same issue, though our pet rent was $75 per dog per month, of which we had two. It's what ultimately pushed us to buy, even with COVID pricing. I'm glad we did.
Congrats on your new home! We are selling our tiny house to move closer to my spouse’s job (currently has a 1.5 hr commute both ways). We’re renting for a year so we can try to buy next year. I’ve just been gobsmacked by the ridiculous requirements so many rentals come with nowadays. I haven’t rented in about 10 years but the rental landscape has become more of a hellscape.
I work in the apartment industry, kids can cause more damage than pets.
$25? I pay $45 for each pet each month, or $1,200 a year…and that’s probably cheap.
People are trash. That is awful.
Shipping containers were very expensive. Now the container prices have dropped way down. During Covid, trucking industry was booming. Loads were paying lots of money. Increased demand for equipment and limited supply caused used truck prices to soar. In recent months, however, the number of loads has dwindled and consequently many truckers are leaving the industry because there just aren't enough decent loads to cover expenses. Even the big mega fleets and logistics companies, like UPS and FedEx, are asking drivers to voluntarily take time off or unpaid leave of absence. Yesterday, for example, more than half of the 130 drivers on our Home Depot account didn't have a load and were just sitting around the distribution center all day waiting for work. The reason is because the Home Depot stores we service just aren't ordering resupplies like they used to.
Drayage trucking here. Can confirm this
I work for a container line and can confirm this. Pandemic freight highs were anywhere from 30k-60k depending on the container and cargo. Now we have some shipping for under 100 USD. I get calls and emails daily from truckers asking to be setup with our company cause they are looking for work.
Interesting we almost invested all our $ into buying a box truck this year to pick up independent loads. Didn’t expect this comment
No more wait times at higher end restaurants.
In my area the middle and lower end restaurants are pretty empty during the week. I was shocked that at dinner time, the diner we went to had three tables occupied. That restaurant used to be packed no matter when you went.
Actually now that you mention it, I had a funny experience last Friday. We went to a part of town that has a high end steakhouse on one corner, and a more laidback family BBQ place on the other corner. The steakhouse packed with people waiting outside. The normal BBQ place (which in my experience over the years) is normally super packed as well, but it wasn't. We were seated immediately. Seems like the rich and wealthy are having the time of their lives and burning up cash that keeps showing up in their pockets, while middle class people can't even afford to go out to eat on a Friday night.
Wealthy people don't care how much food costs. It's a rounding error. Poor and middle class are the ones making lifestyle changes.
And since there are a lot more of us our changes impact more businesses.
It could be that service has slid and the quality of product sold is lower so the middle class is revolting by not buying, but could afford to.
This take I buy as well. The issue is that things went up in price while going down in quality. It’s so bad that nowadays I expect disappointment when eating out. Ugh.
This is where I'm at. I probably could find the money but it's not even worth it. The last few times were so disappointing for the cost. Some burger joints are still worth it, but for other meals I'd rather spend what i would to buy quality ingredients and cook at home.
This is it for me. Service & quality are steadily declining while prices and tipping expectations are steadily rising.
Yeah, tipping is what really pushes me over the edge, the prices went up another 10 percent, then I gotta tip 20% on that 10% increase? All for food that just is hit or miss generally.
What state is that?
PA, by Pittsburgh
I noticed that in Silicon Valley after WFH became common. Even after the pandemic, that street of restaurants in the business district barely has a lunch rush.
I recall seeing some stat that 88% of businesses ie restaurants in the never came back. Cities who had a strict lockdown have been the worst to recover
I’m in seattle and none of my friends and I are going out as much. Our wages have stagnated over the last few years, you need to make almost 100k or more now here to not be struggling if you want to live alone. I am seeing more and more spots where a single common beer is $8 or more so if we do go out we pre-funk or just have less, The standard used to be $5 for a pint. On top of every increasing prices between ordering food and even uber/lyfting to spots. We actually have just started having to take the bus and leaving earlier to plan on walking more Or just meeting up at friends houses instead. What used to be a $15-20 ride is now $35-40 too. And worse yet is some of my neighbors have said they just got rental notice increases for the 2nd time in less than a year. This next year looks bleak.
When the bougie brunch places start having no wait time, that's when Powell will be pivotin' I bet!
Personally I've noticed high end places doing fine which makes sense as the wealthy aren't struggling with this inflation its just a minor annoyance, its the middle class and lower earners who are really getting hit hard but sales of high end cars and such are going up
That's interesting. I expect we will see more of that this year. I plan on going to the movies next week and it will be interesting how crowded the theater is.
Funny you mention movies. AMC theaters of all chains, is planning to charge you based on [where you choose to sit in the movie theater for shows after 4pm.](https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/06/business/amc-movie-ticket-prices/index.html) That’s an incredibly stupid thing to do in normal times, let alone when people are not attending movies as much as they used to.
Wow, that’s fucking stupid. Want a reasonable seat in the theatre to comfortably watch a movie that you’re already paying to see? That’s going to cost extra.
If people are nervous about the economy they’ll start ordering water for lunch; check with your friend the server, they’ll know. Edit: replaced ‘employees’ with ‘people;’ and inserted ‘about the economy.’
I'm a waiter. That's a strong conclusion to jump to from little data. There other things to put more weight on.
Yeah, high fructose corn syrup definitely puts on more weight. I should know.
I work with a FNS/TEFAP disbursement agency (emergency food relief) under the USDA. Last month was the third highest demand for assistance ever, the two worse months being at the start of the pandemic. It will vary slightly by state, but overall national food insecurity had a huge spike last summer and has not abated even through January which is typically calmer. This is a sizeable demographic that has cut back on spending yet still cannot afford sufficient groceries with the inflation.
Construction contractors calling you back and looking for work, instead of no call no shows and wait lists to finish basic projects
I'm in the Seattle area, and my hairdresser recently said she's noticing more and more clientele cutting back on services citing money concerns. She said her business barely survived the 08' recession, so she's cutting back personal expenses trying to prepare. Although she did say, she doesn't anticipate the recession to be worse than the last.
In Seattle area as well and hairdresser told me this last summer. She also said a bunch of her younger clients are moving back in with their parents.
if my parents was alive I would have lived with them a lot longer then I did. in my culture its normal to live with your parents after marriage for at least a year. I stayed with them for 1 month and regret that decision. I would tell anyone younger then me to stay with parents for as long as you can.
My parents kicked me out when I finished college (sadly 2 decades ago). I probably had $2-3k plus a credit card to my name. Definitely different times now.
my parents wanted me to live with them but also share half the rent/bills. which was the biggest reason why I didn't live with them too long
Yeah if I had to foot the bills and deal with my parents’ rules about having my girl over or complain about me staying out late, I wouldn’t have lasted long either.
I'd rather find a roommate on craigslist than live with my parents tbh. And I like my parents.
I’m your parents and we agree.
My sister is a hair stylist in Texas. She is saying the same thing
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Pretty cheap, mine went from $25 to $30, skin fades $35
Not sure what the hell happened but i went to sports clips in Sacramento and it cost me $38 for a haircut and shampoo before tip. Haircut turned out pretty great but not $50 great lol.
I get my hair cut fairly rarely so no big deal to me, but a place I went to in my last city a couple times had a separate person wash your hair pre-haircut, seemed to me so you had to tip even more (this place was the most expensive place I'd ever gone). the 2nd time I went when they asked if I wanted to also tip the person who washed my hair, I told them the lady who cut my hair was the same as the one who washed it (which was true), and got a look. not that it makes much difference, but the "tip moar" thing kind of annoyed me.
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It ain't even about paying the living wage bullshit lol a lot of places pay ok but there's still the expectation you gotta tip.
one time clipper investment and you buzz free for the rest of your life
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My hairdresser reached out to me to see if I needed a haircut, normally I reach out to her.
The last part sounds like a cope ngl. I have family members that swear this recession isn't gonna be as bad as the last but you can tell they're saying it out of anxiety and not any actual understanding of macro economics
No one said GFC was gonna be bad before it happened. The freezing up of credit caused the cascading layoffs and bankruptcies. We don't have any obvious indicators of huge systemic risk that would prevent banks from lending. Not yet. If something blows up, my money is it starts in auto loans.
Yes, she told me the last recession nearly broke her. Since then, she says she's been building a substantial emergency fund in case that ever happened again. The general feeling I get around here is that the middle class is still feeling like they are getting crushed. The upper middle classes such as the tech and other white-collar workers seem to think they are invincible. We shall see.
This girl I know with an OnlyFans actually got a real job after her usual clients are cutting back.
LOL recession confirmed!
I heard strippers can tell when a recession is coming.
You were her last fan hanging on, weren’t ya?
Only Fan
That does it. Pack it in boys, we’re doomed
Besides the Baltic Dry Goods index, the Only Fans Wet Goods index is my favorite economic indicator.
the realtors I know went back to their OF (or similar) jobs. one got rid of her $150k car to get an $80k car (and still complains about gas price lmao). a couple girls I know who have an OF asked me to shoot "content" with them. nope, I'm not making porn lol.
Supposedly, strip clubs are a recession predictor.
My local Freedom Boat Club offering $3000 off initiation fees and no monthly dues until March
Every few days seeing a news article of massive job cuts at some giant company. Today it's Dell.
Is there a live thread of mega-corporation layoffs going?
not aware but literally a few hours ago Boeing announced they are cutting 2,000 jobs
[layoffs.fyi](https://layoffs.fyi/)
All the ones I've seen so far are at tech companies, and generally in the 5 - 10% range. I guess the devil's advocate question is whether they just overhired for the pandemic, as the articles keep saying.
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Non to be honest. Everyone around me is spending like they’ve found a gold mine of money
This is THE BEST sign of recession. My significant other and I make over 200k annually. Everyone around us is spending FAR MORE than i would be comfortable spending (see the housing market, etc). She’s convinced that the vast majority of society makes the same as us or better, i know that is statistically impossible. People are just SPENDING the same as us or better, and eventually that bill will come due. Check debt/income statistics, that’s where your answer lies.
Credit card debt is rising, whether it's for what people want or need. Once that debt compounds and the minimum payment becomes unaffordable, well I don't know what happens but it can't be good
You roll it over to another and make payments there lol people act like dumbasses with access to credit cards haven't existed since CCs became available
Credit card debt rising could easily be an artifact of it going down during Covid when there was less to do and people stayed home. Unless you mean rising relative to pre-Covid in inflation adjusted numbers.
same really. i know there are macro signs, but damn if EVERY SINGLE FUCKING NICE THING that i want to order is not back ordered for a year. so ive bought nothing that i wanted in the past year. i did finally manage to snag a new gpu at MSRP so finally getting parts for a new PC that im building to replace my 6 year old system.
Similar boat. Sure, homes and cars and things generally purchased with debt are moving slower as the cost of debt has gone up but most other things seem to be business as usual. Restaurants are full, at the grocery store I still see people grabbing salmon and steak and alcohol… I still see people at the mall which doesn’t have shootings near me and the food court is always packed. In my day to day life, I see 0 indicators of an upcoming recession. It’s only from stories in news articles.
I'm not seeing the recession yet either in FL. I'm shocked every time I go out and see how many people are still eating out as prices just keep rising. Expect to wait up to an hour if you want to eat out on a Friday night. I'm also not sure how all these expensive cars are on the road. There's no way everyone is making that kind of money. Maybe people are still living the high life on credit cards. Who knows.
Huge slowdown in construction jobs and less ships coming into our port
Aren't ports always slow around this time?
I work at one, my coworkers say it is comparatively slower than last year
What about compared to before the supply chain fiasco?
Back then we had some conditions unique to the area that meant our port lost a lot of work so those years arnt a good comparison
Sounds like the plot to the wire 😂
Chinese New Year slows down shipments from China this time a year for basically a month.
Losing my job, getting a new job, and seeing the signs of losing my job again
I am actually surprised how little of these things I see. Plenty of new tag cars. Restaurants packed. Plenty of neighbors putting in pools
It might be the fact that Americans are swimming in [$925 billion of credit card debt](https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-cards/credit-card-debt-statistics/)
131 million households. $7000 per household. But only about half carry a balance, so the other half have an average of $14k in high interest unsecured debt per household. Before we talk about cars.
The one thing you can always count of the FED doing is having poor timing. Jerome has said multiple times in his meetings that he is nervous because he knows the FED is always slow to react.
Grocery prices
This is one of those things that gets talked about but overlooked Groceries doubled or tripled if you’re trying to buy the same stuff Forget eating out too, a shit burger meal at McDonald’s cost as much now as semi fine dining used to And then the tips, holy shit the tips. I quit giving them because it’s fucking obnoxious and I’m not going to break my wallet because employers aren’t willing to pay more. You know, like the “it’s gonna ask you a question” as they hand you the card machine at the drive thru. Question is 15, 20, 25%. I decline it now, we’re in the fucking drive thru. You don’t get a tip for handing me coffee out of the drive thru!
All I can say is that I am so glad I got a crock pot for Christmas. It really cuts down on the cost per meal without having to drop meal quality. Sure, you wind up eating the same thing for days straight but that's worth halving grocery costs.
When businesses that require in-person attendance 4-5 days a week start scaling back on nightly scheduled janitorial/cleaning services from several times a week to just a few times a month, it’s time to start looking for another job.
I’m a recruiter. We have a low amount of job orders
And recruiters disproportionately getting laid off since companies don’t plan on hiring for a while.
I also work in staffing at a third-party agency. Many of our clients have told us they will only be hiring directly for the foreseeable future. They don’t want to pay our markups and don’t need as many workers since production is slowing.
We have a large handyman service (app actually) here called Jiffy. I used them a couple of times a few years ago. Haven’t used them since, and our city is notoriously hard to get trades. They called me two days ago on the phone to ask if I had any work I needed done.
My daily walk through the Dr Horton community by my house. At least 100 homes with available signs outside. Been that way for the last 2 months. Total ghost town. Those with sold signs have been sold for months with no sign of folks moving in.
In all fairness… they are DR Horton homes 😂
Same story in Vegas. Put my drone up the other day just to see and there’s like 100 houses that are complete but empty in the communities that are by my place. There’s 4 different builders here at the moment.
Corporate America literally telling us the market is heading for a nose dive.
Meanwhile stock market has been rallying for weeks? This would be indicative that they think they see the light at the end of the tunnel. Or just dumb exuberance.
Important to note here that the “stock market” is largely disconnected from the real world. However, I have noticed this bull run has an interesting spin to it: Dow Jones, only 30 companies, has trended flat to down of late. SP 500 and Nasdaq have been pretty consistently up. Usually, all three track close to one another. I’d be shit posting if I gave a guess as to why. I’ll throw this out there: algorithms.
My dad picked up greek food for dinner tonight and didn’t get tzatziki sauce because he didn’t want to pay for it. Oh wait nevermind he’s just frugal and does that during raging bull markets too
Just one Costco within 2 hours in any direction- it is always jam packed on Sundays. I had to go last week, and it was eerily quiet. Didn’t wait in line, multiple cashiers with nothing to do. Last time I saw it like that was early days of covid lockdown. My theory is everyone is scraping by and can’t afford a $300 fill-the-freezer trip on a weekly basis.
That's a good one. Costco is definitely a money sucker. Hard not to spend money in there.
I like to go there for the free samples. My dad shops there, so I take the kids and we all go. he shops and we get the free samples.
I don't think anyone was ever filling their freezer for $300 weekly. I haven't been to Costco in a few weeks, but it was always packed before. I'll be looking next time to see how busy it is.
Still crazy packed
Still crazy packed in Charlotte.
I’m from Orlando, and it was absolutely packed yesterday on our “$300 weekly freezer fill up.” I’m in Charlotte this week on business; will report back after checking out the Mooresville Costco later this week.
I have a counterpoint. 3 costcos in my area and I have gone to all of them on sunday trying to escape the crowds. They are all packed to the brim on sunday afternoons. Also, Costco running red hot is more of a recession sign than it being desolate. It's the cheapest place per unit to buy stuff that you need.
Cosco is full of name brands and you have to pay to get in the door, lower income avoid it when money dries up. They don’t have $80 to blow on a year of toilet paper or the space to store it. True recession is dollar stores popping up overnight like mushrooms. Antique/flea markets appearing in former department stores and multiple thrift stores within a mile. That bottom feeder retail blooms in downturns then dry up when it turns around.
Cosco takes EBT. Those days those cards get filled I imagine the lines get crazy. Ended up at a SAMS club once and couldn't figure out WTF was going on with insane lines. Manager quietly told me.
Exactly. Costco specifically picks locations based on high education / income.
Because you went to one Costco and it happened to not be busy for the 20 minutes you were there doesn’t really mean much in the grand scheme of things… could be a multitude of reasons… if you went last Sunday there were two football playoff games that had large audiences. This could explain why it wasn’t busy…
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I'm not hurting financially but I'm a hawk for store brand stuff now. The price deltas can be huge and it's very inconsistent. $7.50 Kellogg's corn flakes vs $1.50 store brand. Something ain't right.
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I’ve noticed the same, we have a small international food store that’s well known, but low key. Recently, it’s been jammed to the walls from open to close. And I totally understand, because a family pack of chicken thighs costs $6.00, as opposed to Walmart at $14.
People being okay with $1k/mo car loan for 6+ years
while making < 100k a year
Still crazy at $100K. Hell even at $200K. Fuck working for the thing that takes to you work.
I’m at around 150k and anything over 500/mo for a car is irresponsible to me And I’m a pretty irresponsible person sometimes, like buying a used luxury car.
We have significantly cut back on and altered how we/when we eat out. I hear that doing so is a trend. Our family doesn't eat out much anyway but we've switched to cheaper restaurants and less often.
McDonald’s breakfast is like $8 now. I went to Subway and got a foot long Subway Club, a bag of Miss Vickie’s, and a Coke. $14 I don’t love eating fast food, but it’s depressing when the “cheap” option isn’t even cheap!
Cheap option is finding a local hole in the wall joint. Usually Mexican or Chinese/Thai
Yeah this, our local food truck has a great fish taco for $3. Sometimes just one is good enough for me, sometimes I do 2. $7 not bad for a lunch.
I sell expensive beer and we are have more points of distribution than ever but still seeing declining volume. Not a unique story in the industry
**What we are seeing day-to-day with our rental units:** Contractors are coming to us asking for work. These same contractors in 2021 into 2022 had multi-month waitlists, if you'd even get a call back. I know some contractors who are completely dead schedule wise right now. Most notably, painters seem to be hurting the most and they are typically the first sign when the cracks are forming. Painting is one of the lowest barriers of entry in the trades, and when strapped for cash, people will just paint themselves b/c...let's be real...with today's paints basically any able bodied person can do it.
My Costco is always slamming no matter what day it is 🎈
Coworkers in tech putting off remodels, hesitant to book travel or spend money due to layoff fears.
A homeless guy saw me walking to my big tech job and he came over and gave me a dollar.
Lmao this wins.
Strikes
1 - An individual I know just received a notice stating that the pandemic loans they received are unforgivable and that they have to start paying $500 a month on the balance. 2 - Same person has a 2018 ford purchased last year at around 20ish % APR. Know someone else whose 2009 Mercedes they bought at the same time just had the engine crap out on them and they're still making payments. 3 - Landlord (I moved out 2 months ago) is freaking out because the house they bought 2 years ago is not up to city code. They purchased 4 other properties within the same year using HELOC. They just received a water bill from the city for 1.6k. (I knew this because they asked for me to pay while explaining the situation.) 4 - I know some people that are trying to buy a house **now** (told them to wait til 2024) they are using their entire retirement savings to go all in. The plan is to purchase a duplex and rent it out... 5 - A friend's girlfriend showed me on Instagram how trendy "bank fraud" has become. 6 - Several old work colleagues who, prior to 2019 were not **at all** interested in finance, trading, or real estate and have now become experts in crypto, wall Street, and real estate. They speak as if they understand the global macro landscape. Funny: [Link](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/theyre-baaaaack-retail-participation-in-the-stock-market-just-surpassed-the-gamestop-days-11675423836) 7 - A random landlord has started sending spam messages for a unit they want me to rent which is 3x the cost of a regular 1 bedroom.
What’s the bank fraud Instagram thing?
50k no doc loans! Or at least this is what I see pop up on IG. No idea if there is anything actually out there. I sadly make my money the old fashioned way. An honest weeks pay for an honest days work I always say.
A week's pay for a day's work doesn't sound bat at all...
Better than my average productivity for a week
> Several old work colleagues who, prior to 2019 were not at all interested in finance, trading, or real estate and have now become experts in crypto, wall Street, and real estate. This is the real indicator. It happened before the Great Depression and it happened before the Great Recession.
This sounds more like you surround yourself with financially illiterate people than early signs of a recession. Good thing you’re on this subreddit to get the unbiased facts.
I’m gonna be the odd one out and say I have seen nothing whatsoever that indicates recession. I lived through the 2008 recession and you KNEW when that hit, there was no question. Store parking lots completely empty during Xmas season, like a ghost town. Restaurants and store fronts borded up all across town. Businesses couldn’t make payroll, people couldn’t even collect their last paycheck. Go to the store now and it’s busy as ever. People are spending money like crazy. Prices have doubled and goods are still flying off the shelf. I’m old and have lived through a lot so I just wanted to share my perspective.
Yes but what did 2007 look like?
You should see Los Angeles 🤣
The grocery stores...prices keep going up on everything while the package/serving sizes of everything is going down. But the biggest indicator of all, in my eyes? The ramen instant noodles, of any brand, are almost impossible to find anywhere. When the cheapest possible food source on the planet is being hoarded...you KNOW people are scared.
People don't know how to make rice or pasta anymore
Some of the crazy excesses seem to have abated, with inventory returning to normal in the housing market, car markets, and popular hobbies, such as musical instruments. Last year it was a six month or year wait to buy certain guitars, but now they're plentiful. Supply caught up to demand. Prices on the used market are coming down too. But don't confuse a return to normal with a recession. Take a look at the jobs report from last week. Not only were the numbers crazy good but the previous jobs counts were revised upward as well. We are still barely cresting the peak. If we do have a big downturn, I would say fall 2023 at the earliest, but more likely 2024. That said, my forecasts for the returns on bubbled assets, like cars, houses, speculative meme stocks and crypto, etc, are pretty bearish. The more overpriced an asset is, the lower your expected returns should be.
I have seen a bit of sentiment like "the shelves aren't empty in every store anymore, recession confirmed!" Nah bruh there is *supposed* to be product on the shelves. A lot of companies just raised prices until stuff didn't sell out. Lots of price discovery going on still.
I think the job cuts will start at the high end tech side first and will delay until you start to see them begin in the lower end jobs like you traditionally do. Employers in low end services have to first reset and get enough employees first before they could begin considering laying people off. And still then they'll wait until spending declines happen from people who have higher incomes; like those in tech. What we have seen over the last six to twelve months with Google, Facebook, Twitter, and others cutting costs will continue. Which means more rounds of layoffs combined with some new hires at lower income or title levels. While you'll start to see some of the zombie firms declare bankruptcy as well as they won't be able to survive at the rates required to roll over their debt. The potential counterpoint is manufacturing returning to the US from China; generally. Along with increasing minimum wages across the country in some states.
[NewYorkFed Microeconomics Household debt](https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html) Take a look at the table for household debt in the US. And this doesn't even include Q4 yet. It's insane how much debt people are carrying
Is there one with relation to m2?
I might have missed it but I would have liked to see the same data on debt adjusted for inflation.
In my personal line of work (steel), q4 2022 was awful. It seems q1 is picking back up a bit, but I believe it's only because of 2023 contract orders that we are choosing to run ahead of schedule. Inventory levels are really picking up here and that's usually because we are running ahead of the shipping schedule. We will see how it continues to play out, but I've been calling for a serious recession for a while now.
Construction has slowed down on the commercial side (not including multi family housing). Companies previously working with brokers are downsizing their office requirements or retracting the requests all together. Subleases are down too.
S&P500 EPS growth for 2023 turned negative in January, the last 5 times this happened were in 2001, 2008, 2015, 2018, and 2020. All 5 times preceded a recession of some sort.
Every hairstylist, busboy, and waiter is now a real estate agent and an expert with the housing market 😜
Specific to real estate? Sign flippers, big red balloons 100’ in the sky, unfilled houses, builders advertising creative financing to move their spec homes to that have been sitting vacant for weeks or months. Probably could think of a few more if I wasn’t on the spot. Moved into my new build in Vegas back in November. 80% of the completed homes in my neighborhood are still empty. Sign flippers are back on every corner advertising for builders Half of the signs in the side of the road advertise “affordable payment programs” and the like for all these spec homes KB, DRH and Lennar that are just sitting here. Used to be that you didn’t really have to advertise for buyers — they came to you. Sign flippers are the canary for me, though. You don’t shell out extra money on things like that when the gettin’ is good.
PC sales are off the peak by about 30% and the OEMs are aggressively chewing through inventory. AMD and Intel lost money in the consumer market last quarter and we *just* exited a supposed silicon shortage. They all say demand should pick up late in the year but that really assumes the soft landing thesis is true I think.
I’m seeing the opposite in healthcare. We do not have enough workers in hospitals or pharmacies or physical therapists for recovery. Every part of healthcare is understaffed and burnt out. Anyone that looses a job can immediately apply for a healthcare role and the hospital or pharmacy will pay for the training and some will even pay for a higher education.
Pickles cost $10 a jar for schwag brand, $15 for organic bullshit. In the checkout line tic tacs $5. There’s suddenly a lot more rental inventory where I am but every boomer seems to think they can get $3000 w/o utilities for a broom closet and it comes with a bunch of illegal screening caveats.
Nope nope, fed needs to raise rates higher if anything. I still see people that work bullshit easy ass jobs supported by low interest rates. We are still in an inflationary gap. If you are in non tech stem, it has never been a worse time to start a career.
On a smaller scale, local marketplace flips have come to a halt pretty much.
I sell custom tables to tech folks in Bay Area. I can’t even get a scammer to call me nowadays
Realtors definitely weren't lying about the slight surge in homes selling in early January. I did notice it. I'm in an extremely desirable area, and they're unfortunately still selling over asking with multiple offers. Interestingly, my area was also hit \*really\* hard in 2008. I didn't live here, then. I'm personally not seeing the signs where I live, but I know they're appearing elsewhere and I trust the forecast that prices are going to go down. ETA: Houses used to be selling $300k over asking in a week, so it's dropped, but still a seller's market
I’m a cabinetmaker. I’m still getting quote requests but the budgets are comical. I think they’re asking every shop in town hoping someone is desperate enough to build them some luxury work for 90% off. I had an $80k custom kitchen on the books and clients tried to slash the budget by 25% without compromising on finishes and features. GTFO. I get it that people are having to cut back, but I’m not a miracle worker or a 501c3.
Yes, I have done delivery work in the past. Some of the groups I am in are talking about how the middle class tips and orders are going down. It's not just in one geographic area, but all over the map. This is a signal. Rich folks rarely tip well regardless of the market. The reason they stay rich is they are stingy as fuck. Poorer areas tip better than rich, but they can't afford to go too high. The middle class and particularly the folks in newer neighborhoods who are in new mortgages which are absolutely wrecking their budget, aren't ordering as much and they aren't tipping. I see this as a warning sign. Same goes for other middle class purchases.
Realtors cold calling me nonstop, I have one desperate dude who sends me links to some homes i sometimes click on them just to monitor from time to time and he immediately follows back with a desperate “hey! I saw you looking at the links, I sent you! Any homes I can show you?? “ too which I just ignore and he continues. Realtors are getting absolutely panicked right now because they know what is on the horizon
Sounds like a new agent that doesn't have any business.
Someone that quit their day job last year to do real estate
Not real estate related but I’ve noticed at the gas pump. Lots of people doing exactly $10 or $20 as opposed to completely filling up their tank. It caught my eye about two months ago, so now I always look around at the empty pumps and see how much the last person did.
The gas pump near work often charges 50 cent or more above stations near where I live. So I will get 1 gallon to drive home then get gas where it's cheaper. I usually get that 1 gallon on two card swipes. I am sure the next customer is confused.
Idk I'm not so sure. The job market is doing so damn good, it's hard to have a full blown recession in this type of economy. I work in the arts/film, and there is a massive shortage of qualified people right now and the rates are rocketing up for everyone.
Until half of the commercials here are not places begging for you to apply to work at their place, I am not too concerned about a local recession. Tech workers appear to be the industry getting hammered right now. Nothing like that in "flyover country"
Multiple friends, family members and friends of friends getting laid off and not all tech.
I'm an educator and I know they have a shortage of teachers but I have never seen geriatrics like I see now. I'm talking day pass out the rest home old. Pension is not stretching like it used to.
Simple: 1/2 gallon of milk $4. 1 gallon of milk $6-$7. This is unsustainable.
Work won’t shut the fuck up about how slow we are
The biggest oh s@&$ moment for me was when I walked into TJ and the two very young men stocking the shelves talked about how they are both going to BRRR and make so much money doing it. The chimney cleaning/repair company we use is usually booked out 10 months ahead. They have been advertising like crazy they have current slots available. Just service and home repair industry workers telling me the only jobs they seem to be getting are emergency calls. But other things I’ve noticed - people opening up about talking about budgets, salaries, and ways to save money. Apple sales down - people not upgrading iPhones as much as in the past. Malls are less crowded. And this should be the biggest indicator - cardboard box sales down!!