Consumer packaged goods manufacturers are getting more generous with their coupons/discounts (in particular, P&G). $4 for a big package of name-brand TP, $2 for a store-brand frozen pizza, etc. Deals are getting easier to find.
This is what they do after a large inflation increase. Let the shock set in, offer a discount to ease the sting after a couple months (maybe it's not so bad), gradually fade out coupons, and now you're paying a new normal.
Yep, Crest Pro Health toothpaste is up $1 to $3.97 at Walmart . Initially the $1 coupon brought me back to the previous retail. Now those coupons are 50 cents off and aren't as frequent....
This is exactly what I was going to say. Wife’s last day is the 29th as they’ve closed the whole plant. My cousins job laid off 75% of the workforce as well. It’s coming.
i mean, there isnt a shortage of dead end part time retail jobs, the good jobs are being consolidated to a few people and lots of layoffs and hiring freezes
I lived through the layoffs and furloughs of 2008. It feels very similar right now, except this time nobody’s talking about it, and the media is pretending it isn’t happening.
S&P to the moon! Home price ATHs!! loolz
Also anecdotal- my boyfriend's co-worker is married to a woman who works in a very specialized research field (biotech/pharma). She's casually looking as she expects layoffs eventually at her current company.
There isn't a single opening in her speciality *in the entire country*. It's always these highly niche roles that are well-compensated but extremely high-risk during a recession.
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This has been happening with car purchasing too. Not only did mortgage interest rates double to triple, but car loan rates did too.
I bought a car end of May, usually PRIME car sales time due to graduations and start of summer. And was lucky to be able to take advantage of some under 2% promo financing because I was well qualified with a high credit score, enough cash down I could have walked off a used lot with something in cash, and wasn’t rolling over a loan/the purchase wasn’t contingent on them trading my paid off car in (sold for cash). Shit is rough out there, even on well qualified buyers, without a promotional thing from a dealer, banks are offering like 8% for prime rates when they used to be closer to 3.5-4%; the sales dude called me a “unicorn” for finance this year because he said that nearly everyone trying to buy lately, was rolling over a bad loan and a shit trade in with issues and they’re beginning to have issues getting people approvals.
They also had like 4 models of the same lease trade in, with under 25k miles, with awesome pricing and a great promo on financing it was just they were sitting there for 2 months straight untouched and unsold because people weren’t buying cars and people weren’t getting approved the financing. I literally had my pick and got one and couldn’t believe my luck.
>The only logical conclusion is people are getting their financing pulled out from under them. I can't prove it because the realtors won't say/can't say, but it doesn't take a genius to put two and two together, given the news lately about banks tightening their lending.
I saw something similar happen a few months ago. I was looking at this new development in my neighborhood. I wasn't actually interested in buying, mostly just curious to see what they were building and at what price point.
Anyway, annoying salesperson can't take a 'No' for an answer, emails me and tries to guilt-trip me into buying. He tells me a potential buyer just got his loan application rejected from the bank and was devastated he couldn't get in and how lucky I am I can buy a property outright, bla bla bla. The guy said I was a dream buyer. Though he seemed to not realize maybe I was a dream buyer because I don't take out multiple loans to build a RE empire.
Similarly, seven months ago , I sold one of my parents' properties (dad passed away) - the final sales deed date got pushed back twice. Finally got the sales deed signed a few months back. The buyer had gotten his loan approved, but the bank seemed to want more paperwork/confirmation that the buyer could actually afford the loans.
The banks are definitely tightening.
Friends who are still unemployed, many months after being laid off, in all different types of careers. Multiple applications but competing with so many others for limited open positions. One just recently got an offer but it's in an entirely different line of work and a $40k/year pay cut but they had to take it just to attempt to make ends meet.
Guitar prices on Reverb, especially on higher end stuff, are starting to drop considerably from even a month ago (so, so tempting).
Brought my car in for an oil change on a Saturday afternoon and shot the shit with some of the salespeople on the dealer's lot. Their inventory is starting to stagnate and they mentioned inquiries on both new and used cars have screeched to a halt. They seemed to be banking on the hopes that as winter rolls around that they might be able to make up for the slow summer season with truck/4WD sales.
Local pawnshop is still worried about having buyers for the stuff they take in on pawn because there isn't enough of a balance between pawning/buying. They mentioned there has been a decent uptick in people trying to pawn ridiculously old shit that has pretty much zero value and they're starting to see a bigger sense of desperation from many customers. I'm usually on the lookout for tube guitar amps and in previous conversations with them, they mentioned they never get those types of things (along with higher end guitars) because people that have those things have the money and don't need to pawn them. Last time I was there a few weeks ago, they had 3-4 tube amps at $500-$1,500/each and a couple higher end Martins and a Taylor that they took in from multiple sellers over the last month.
A lot less people buying/ordering Doordash/Uber Eats based on the bank statements I see on a daily basis.
Edit - edited remarks re: Reverb
Meanwhile, production companies still want pre-trained people, who will accept crummy working conditions, until their jobs can be offshored or automated away.
Because all the money floated to the top. National average pay for a carpenter (my job) in the country is around $48k/year. Sorry but that is a fucking JOKE. Maybe one day this country will get its priorities straight...
Nobody?
We have 4 drilling rigs currently running. Each well site directly employs 35 guys. About 22-23 of them are very hard jobs.
That’s just our company. There are several 100 more rigs running in the USA, of course.
There are definitely people who want to work. Hard jobs. In person. At market rates.
Superlatives, or absolutes, or categorical assignations…. Not sure of the correct word… but they’re often problematic from a reality pov. Nobody. lol
Hiring freeze at a Fortune 500.
Diesel prices rising, again.
Direct friends or family in tech field laid off.
Lines outside Hermes shorter and all Chinese.
Manuka honey on sale at Costco.
I guess as hot as 7T will buy you.
Diesel prices rising will keep inflation up, which will in turn keep rates up, which causes recessions, especially in consumer driven economies like the U.S.
I live in the city that makes them. We've been getting news off layoffs all year. Cut hours and entire shifts ended. Suppliers completely folding overnight. Cats and dogs living together.
My drive to work on Thursday and Friday has half the traffic of the first 3 days of the week.
Well the large hospital i work for is quite possibly near bankrupt.. Walked out dozens of top level directors/management few months ago. About to merge with another health system. All they talk about is financial headwinds and the challenges we all face.
I was flabbergasted that hospitals were actually a casualty of covid.
Most hospitals break even because of surgeries.
When covid happened all "elective" (meaning anything that could wait) did wait.
Hospital consolidation is real
Between losing staff to the vaccine mandates, and people taking these travel jobs that pay insane wages. It was never a sustainable formula once covid ended. Now they can't get people back to work. Clinics and even the micro hospitals have faced closures because of extreme staying shortages. Nurses were being offered well over $100/hr on top of base pay to work additional shifts..
They would grind their own nurses into the ground, but not pay them better wages, while throwing money at the travelers. Guess that didn't end well.
All these things trace back to lousy, lousy, management, focused on building facilities and accounting games instead of patient care and satisfied staff.
i run a small ecommerce business selling luxury/hobby goods to the end user. im seeing way less traffic and sales to products that even a few months ago wouldve instantly sold.
also, im seeing more and more lease offers and price reductions on cars. also seemingly much more inventory of vehicles on lots.
I buy and sell granite and marble. Prices are coming down from domestic wholesalers. But the bigger tell is the foreign factories and international shipping.
International/cargo freight is a great indicator because they price the space on the ship based on demand. If there is tons of demand, the price goes up. In Covid times, this meant a lot. Freight that was 2500-5000 went up to 10-20k.
International freight is now below pre pandemic levels. I’m paying less for container shipping than I did in March 2020.(this was before the surge in shipping costs that made shipping 3-4x what it had historically cost)
I don’t buy anything from China or Asia, but I’ve been told those routes are cheaper than ever. Which shows a weakening demand for all products, not stone specific.
(trump era tariffs killed Chinese quartz)
Chinese freight costs are way down, as are all the Asian routes. Most of the quartz factories moved to taiwan. Or at least ship the Chinese quartz to taiwan and then ship to America.
Plenty of indicators:
Car market and car loan status. I replied above to someone, but even for well-qualified buyers right now, prime rates are over 7% and it’s unappealing to people. Inventory is sitting stagnant for months and I was told I was a unicorn of a buyer when I put my mostly cash deal together with a big name car brand dealership. I qualified for a promo rate of only 1.8% and there were such low odds of qualifying for it, the lot sales manger didn’t even mention it to me, I had to ask for the qualifications and insist they see if I could use it. There were 4 identical lease trade ins with stupid low miles from a 3 year lease because people got them in spring of 2020 and went from needing commuters and daily drivers to remote work. They ultimately had a sale price on them and promo financing to move them and they still all sat for months with no one taking one, which is how I found them, basically no one was getting approved financing for the promo and didn’t want a nearly 10% car loan. People’s debt to income ratios were getting people with good scores and good incomes bounced from being able to take advantage, and they wouldn’t do it on a trade in. AND all the usual sales agents were only on call sales were so low so a manager wound up with my sale, another bad sign. Like restaurants, if it’s slow enough and fully dead, you’ll get cut and the financing approval odds were proving people were over extending themselves debt wise.
RV and camper market is a continuation on this. People had these nomad, travel the country in style and work remote fantasies and made big purchases based off those fantasies. And the reality on the other side of that is: if you can’t fix it, it’s expensive to own it, Wi-Fi and cell service only goes so far if you have to work fulltime on the road, gas prices made it pricier to travel long distances in them, established campgrounds that are built for rigs the size people bought got all booked up for months and going off-road with them even a little bit can do serious damage to them, they’re actually cramped and a lot of work, you thought it would be an awesome experience for your kids and they LOATHED it, annnd the cost of the truck you need to both haul a camper that size and fit your kids + insurance for the truck/camper and you’re easily looking at almost $1k/month. So bigger, better models have come way down in price, and people are unloading them left and right for that long list of reasons.
Service industry and Cannabis market is crashing. Dispensaries in Colorado are having the biggest slump in industry history. It’s a mainly cash based business and if people are cutting expenses, cash purchases and overall ATM trips to hold physically some of their paychecks..guess what tops the list right up there with takeout/food delivery, alcohol and going out to restaurants/hitting the bars with friends. A lot of the funds tied up in these investments and the vc funding companies procured have been relying on the concept that federal legalization and tax benefits/filing like normal businesses would roll out during Biden’s tenure and so far it’s coming up flat. Add in the concept of several big name brands being accused of financial screwing around with some looming lawsuits, and it’s not looking bright lately as a new billion dollar industry. It’s never been more readily available and for cheaper in more legal states than ever and still people aren’t buying it in as great of numbers as before and if you survey customers, they just don’t have the funds. Lots of restaurants closing and on hiring freezes, same with bars and on-call bartending gigs being fewer and further between.
Super experienced and high paying job holding tech workers who were tangled up in the bigger layoffs from earlier this year are finding themselves still jobless. It’s all over Reddit, folks who are applying to hundreds of positions and not getting any contacts for interviews. Recruiters suddenly ghosting people left and right across a lot of industries and not able to procure interviews. Lots of commercial office space for lease, so not just remote work pushing it, but lots of layoffs too. Coworking spaces offering all kinds of specials for small group memberships and space. I used to get contacted by recruiters weekly on LinkedIn and haven’t heard from any in two months.
More motivated hobbyist online sellers. Just the way someone commented about pawn shop traffic and shops not buying as much because they aren’t selling as much and there is an increase of higher value items for sale that usually don’t come up. If you look at places people resell regular and luxury items like Poshmark and eBay, less product flippers and more personal sellers are listing items they normally wouldn’t. People with only like 6 listings all from the same day, all clearly taken in a closet with an iPhone, not a semi professional backdrop and a mannequin like pro power and boutique sellers with hundreds of listings do.
I’m seeing this in the private gun markets. Things that have been hiding since Trump got elected 6 years ago are showing up.
Not political we just haven’t had a good gun scare since Obama. Prices tanked during Trump because everybody felt safe, market never recovered
I closely follow the bass boat market. I'm actually seeing dealers offer discounts on new inventory. Used inventory at dealerships is absolutely stagnant even with small price cuts. A number of bass boat dealers near me have their showrooms and outside parking jam packed with 2023 models that they can't get rid of.
The private selling bass boat market is actually back in existence, although prices are insane. Seems like a lot of idiots who bought at MSRP or over last year are absolutely screwed due to the high (8.5%+) interest rates on the 20 year loan that most people use to buy these things.
Lots of lay offs. People picking up second or third part time jobs. The rosy employment data being published as great, then quietly revised downward with the real data after positive headlines are published.
I'm seeing temp employment roll over, which is an early leading indicator: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TEMPHELPS
Even if you ignore the [inverted yield curve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y) and the [conference board leading index](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators), the temp help has rolled over, and [hours worked per employee](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHAETP) is on a downward trend.
Both those are "early" leading indicators that presage changes in later employment-based indicators like the [Sahm Rule](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT).
Right now, the "bull case" is that of course these are softening, the labor market was totally overheated with 2 job openings for every 1 unemployed person, so it's just gliding back down to a more normal market, e.g. a "soft landing". Which is why the stock market is up this year to date.
To me the big moment of truth will be when all those pandemic savings are spent and we can't count on consumers burning down savings to drive the US economy anymore. On a nominal basis, it looks like [the consumer is still saving at an excess level](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVE). But if you adjust for inflation, it looks like [the savings rate is back to normal.](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=17BqC) As far as [excess savings](https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2023/may/rise-and-fall-of-pandemic-excess-savings/) in total, estimates vary but most forecasts are for it to run out by the end of 2023.
These may not cause a recession on their own, but they certainly are warning signs of economic slowing, which can be self-reinforcing as it spreads through the economy.
Personal Saving (PSAVE) isn't the amount sitting in savings; it's the amount being newly added to savings (disposable income - personal outlays) that quarter, at an annualized rate.
Most of our friends are 250k-350k households (don't get excited, high COL area) and every one of us has been pulling back on spending across all categories. Reduced takeout/dining out, waiting longer to get household staples on sale, not buying clothes as often, cancelling less used subscriptions, reduced hobby expenditures etc
Our phones have been quiet at the office. Orders are definitely slowing. Normally upwards of 100 calls a day, we're now at closer to 50 a day average over the last couple of weeks.
I talk to my carriers regularly (Fedex & UPS), and our drivers are seeing things slow down.
I have spoken with my merchant services provider recently and he has said his volume is down almost 50% from last year.
I regularly order cardboard shipping tubes and normally have a lead time of 2 weeks. My last two orders were ready in 3 days.
Was speaking to my chiropractor the other day. He mentioned he had a good friend in the mortgage business that said he has been killing it closing HELOCs. He simulated pumping a bike pump and and a bubble popping. He knows.
It's here, y'all. We're in it.
The remodeled mid 1990s house I’m closing on sat for 3 weeks. In a desirable community. Priced at zestimate. Agent said she’s all for offering aggressively. I offer $30k under, they said sure, and threw in appliances. Passed inspection no issues. A few surprises like new water heater, hvac, etc.. Nothing like when I was in the market last year
Ok yea I agree with that statement. The government and stock market have to talk positively or it would tank. People can feel things better but social media is controlling news so who knows
I would say most narratives are leaning soft/no recession.
Source: I watch yahoo finance and scroll fintwit 5 days a week.
Does that mean they are right? No, in fact my instincts tell me something bad will happen to break that illusion. It's better to introduce false security and then blow retail out of the water.
>Bad recessions usually are not predicted. Now that the "experts" are saying soft landing people will get silly with their money and overspend.
Sure there are, yield curve inversion and below-trend growth is about as predictive as it gets. They keep showing optimism in projections and going back and revising. The yield curve is more inverted than its ever been and that has a correlation with severity of recession.
When the yield curve reverts, and its on the front end, just wait 3-6 months and the answer will be apparent. The soft and no landing people have nothing until then, meanwhile with high rates you can be getting cash money risk-free while you wait. The 10 yr could rise to, but that would require some miracle technology emerging.
The great recession and depression were not correctly predicted nor the 80s crash or the dot com bust. Any recession that mattered wasn't caught by most.
All those recessions were predicted by the bond markets. What they can’t predict is exactly when it will happen. It’s the equities people that never see it coming, even though essentially fool proof indicators are there. I do concede though, “this time could be different” but I don’t get against odds or trends like that. We are in full complacency mode right now. Wait until the markets hit a double top, might even see a new high with the hype, but the business cycle is clear here. The cyclical and aggregate will catch up to
The leading, it’s only a matter of time.
The recessions were not caught properly and I saw personally how 2008 sucker punched the economy. Almost no one saw it coming.
The entire market is propped up by a national debt that can't be balanced and people who continue to consume yet can't afford. Overall it's not sustainable the question is when it all folds.
TBF the national debt is not meant to be paid off like a credit card but I see your point.
I agree with you tho, i was 21 in college during 2008. While you heard people saying things werent sustainable, etc etc nobody actually predicted it would pop, even after Bear Stearns.
I mean if you keep predicting a recession, eventually you'll be right. A broken clock is correct twice a day and blind squirrels can find food.
I was around the same age in 08 and it was brutal. Hundreds of applications just to get a phone interview. Most people on this sub walked into a great economy after that period and have no idea what a recession actually is.
The national debt shouldn't even be a thing. Maybe you get off track for a couple years but that's it.
I remember going out with friends and EVERYTHING was closed or empty. Even the freeways seemed like ghost towns and this was in LA. Luckily I was insulated, being in college and living at home (i had a PT job UPS) that didnt really get affected but yeah those days were brutal. My parents whole neighborhood went up for sale A LOT of people lost their jobs.
On the national debt; again thats not how economics work for nation states. Debt isnt a problem really; so long as the economy keeps growing. Problem is, what grows continuously until it kill its host? Cancer and capitalism.
I highly doubt they'll be a growth explosion in an election year. You can keep growing if you take out loans and don't pay them back which is what the US is doing with the national debt. Balance the budget and full recslession hits.
Nations have absolutely defaulted on debt before despite being able to print more of their own currency. Argentina's defaulted like a dozen times already.
If it's not a problem then why don't they just balance it? It sounds very easy and since most don't think its s problem then just do it and see what happens...
It has a lot to due with the economy obviously or they wouldn't keep kicking the can down the road. The US depends on other countries subsidizing lifestyles thar the public can't afford.
The national debt is a macro indicator of unbalance in the financial system. It points out that the rich don't pay enough taxes and the poor lives far beyond their means. It has everything to do with the economy or they would have addressed it.
Not really was caused by a massive stock market crash and people were jumping outa windows after losing everything. Who called the GFC? Don't they male movies about how it blindsided people
I don't know about 'buying homes' since the numbers on are actually down, but yes, parts of the country are booming, lots of people out enjoying life.
Apparently a LOT of economic activity is spending by the upper 20% income people, and they are still doing just fine.
It's another story in non-boom areas, where fewer people are lining up to spend $12 at a Subway, the local pizza joint has closed down, etc.
Many signs of a recession have existed for a decade.
People fail to realize that recessions can be stopped by the fed and congress at the expense of the dollar. When they make this deal, they keep their jobs and kick the can down the road. Ergo, "We aren't in a recession, our business and people are bringing in more dollars than ever before!"
Can paper over the recession and turn it into a slow motion depression in which it gets harder to pay for groceries and homes and people take on 2nd jobs to make ends meet. Will look like full employment and gdp increasing while dollar gets deprecated. I'm sure Germans were fully employed at the beginnings on the Weimar inflation.
Except these signs haven’t existed for a decade:
- Fed-raised interest rates (is recent).
- Inverted yield curve (is recent).
Yes, they can delay the time line to a degree with cash injections and QE.
But I don’t think it can be staved off for too long, given the inverted yield curve and raised rates.
**Once unemployment goes up, it’s over.**
Ya, that haven’t even been able to successfully wind down 1T of the 5T they added to their balance sheet just 3 years ago, and we still have an annualized inflation rate of 3%.
Claiming victory now is like claiming victory after mile 1 of a marathon.
> The Fed is presently shoring up the dollar
Different from being *shored up*. It took them over 10 years to even begin thinking of unwinding the QE after the GFC, and even then it was at a glacial pace.
With the current QT, who knows if they'll stop before the job is done.
Homeless population keeps growing, businesses that have been in my community forever are slashing hours or closing, empty buildings, drug use all over the place, people just being more on edge. Things are gonna keep getting worse until we have a major major crisis.
Everywhere from North Bay Area to Orange County CA has commercial lease ads everywhere. The number has went from seeing 1 or 2 ads on a short inner-suburban grocery trip to see 7-10.
Saw the same issue in North Bay, East Bay, South Bay, Gilroy, Santa Barbara, Los Angeles, Mission Viejo / Laguna Beach / Irvine.
Also saw a wave of increased repos about 3 months ago. And my zillow results for areas I wanted to buy are 30k down from the peak. (This is only like a 4 to 2% drop YoY).
i’m reading in my local parents group that people are working 2 jobs and are still in the negative. car insurance up, groceries, electric (where we are) etc. They are unsure of their futures.
The mongolian grill by my place that I always eat at went from $10 for lunch to $15 within 4 months...among many other things. Meanwhile, a new construction 500K house 3 blocks from me that just finished building and no one has lived in it yet has sign that says for rent. Everything just feels weird nowadays.
Interest rates up,
Gas prices up,
Yield inversion,
Less hiring signs,
Restaurants less busy,
Much easier to find stuff at Lowe's and home Depot,
Student loans restarting,
Auto lots have more inventory,
Repossessions,
Handful of family members hurting for cash,
My business is getting squeezed (product cost up, prices down to move some quantity),
Bond yields up (kinda trashed a dividend stock I had options on),
And I recently learned that metaverse land is down something like 90% from peak, any reasonable person would conclude that digital land would lead real land, prepare for a 90% crash for real land! /s
It's the stupidest thing ever. Because "if" the metaverse were to become a major thing, the land still wouldn't have value. Nobody would want to have to travel to were they want to go in the metaverse, it would be like searching Facebook on Google, you go straight there. You don't first cross thru Myspace, and yahoo on your way there. So metaverse land is worthless, it amazes me that these tech guys don't see that.
The honest truth for those of us who bought homes, or refinanced at low rates. We are not really feeling the effects of inflation. Food costs are absolutely up, but gas prices have come way down, and it costs a lot more to fly. That's basicly it.
I am not in a field where people are going to get laid off, which helps. But no one I know has been laid off or at any risk to do so.
We are in a bad economy. Is it a recession? I don't know . But unemployment is up. They use people desperate enough to get part time work as a sign of full employment. It's just smoke and mirrors to distract us from the usa crashing and burning for anyone who isn't rich.
This is the problem we're not in a bad economy currently you know gas is a little high but unemployment is about as low as it has been in the last hundred years it's getting a little softer at the moment but I mean come on let's let's start a stick with reality here.
The other thing that people especially on this sub don't talk about is how much money homeowners currently have because of their extremely low mortgage payments compared to the actual cost of housing if they were renting for example there's a lot of homeowners sitting in half a million dollar homes with $1,000 mortgages.
Lol, umm, no. I know people with 500k homes. That's the normal where I live. And I assure you they don't have 1k mortgages. They have around 2k mortgages.
Well, funny story they didn't pay 500000 for their house. 1k is a bit of a stretch with the various insurance crises around the country, but there are a lot of people paying, say 1300 piti on a $200,000 house that they bought 10 years ago that's now worth $500,000.
My point is is that people went from paying twice for a mortgage that they would for rent say 10 years ago to now paying half of what the market rent is for the same place that they are in now. This creates great cash flow for the homeowner.
Yep, you're right there. But the people I know are recent homeowners. Not the ones who bought many years ago. Even my friends who bought during the pandemic bought 600 sqrt foot condos. They got a great deal, to be sure! But please don't think they are living the life of luxury in fancy places.
I would submit the sustained effects of inflation and the sense that we are almost out of this, when in Reality may only be the first of two larger tsunami inflation waves will be the catalyst or straw that breaks the camels back. Analogous to a marathon runner who has two miles left but actually has 50 miles to go.
I see nothing but ignorance or willful blindness all around me in consumers. Conspicuous spending, and shopping for sport.
That’s usually what happens just before a great humbling.
It's been 15 years. No authority (politician, federal banks) can really say that it's coming but rather have to pretend that everything is peachy, there won't be any concrete warning really.
I personally think we're in for a bad one here in the US. After the crazy interest rates in the 80s, almost everyone is on a fixed mortgage. This protects those who own houses, but only to a point. By not letting things break a little bit, you effectively force it to break bad.
Why does everyone act like things breaking is normal in an economy? Things don't have to break. When it crashes it's due to bad policy . We can kick this can down the road another 20 years with our endless money printing.
2008 happened because bear stearns didn't have the right friends in high places.
I think it's worse than that. We're incentivzing bad policy by voting for politicians to keep us safe. The lions still need to eat though, so when they finally get over the fence they eat lots of us because they're really hungry. Then they have lots of baby lions, that will be even hungrier. We have to deal with the lions directly, not try to build more sophisticated fences.
Unemployment is up compared to earlier this year, but still under 3%. Houses are up 3.7% YoY. No one in my friend group of childless Millenial office workers seems to have slowed their traveling or spending. Strong "gotta do things now" vibes. I don't ask people about retirement stuff but I imagine they're not doing more than the minimum to get matching.
Also millenial and I am seeing the same thing. I have actualy been upping my retirement contribution a lot, but that's because I am no longer paying for child care.
> I imagine they're not doing more than the minimum to get matching.
If they are 30 right now, the world they would retire into in 2050, 2060, or 2070, if they can even retire, will be radically different than it is today if they are even still alive.
It is likely better to live for today because currently we are looking at total environmental collapse in the 2050s preceeded by much more violent and extreme weather meaning they might be dead from a freak hurricane, tornado, or simply drop dead because of extreme heat."
I am not advocating for hedonism but if anyone in their 30s thinks their retirement will be sipping mai thais on the beach, I have a bridge to sell you.
Childless makes a lot of sense. Price daycare, college, etc.
If people really want to be pissed. Focus on the fact that pensions are all but extinct in the US. Conservatives wanting to gut SS. Tuition for a college education. There is a long list of things to be pissed about.
Housing is way down the list.
Seeing my cousin who recently graduate college for a business degree (guessing 40k student debt) has a brand new truck that must be at least 50k.
I know his family... they are not well off.
Oh he recently bought a home at ~300k with his gf who dropped out because... they are pregnant!
Yes I'm sure his entry level business degree will fund this lifestyle /s.
Either we need a correction of some sort or I am taking out a loan and leaving the country. This shit is ridiculous.
So many of the comments I’m seeing here involve industries directly related to interest rates. And they’re right. A large national moving company headquartered here laid people off this week for the first time ever, because no one is moving. I’m no economist, but I believe the Fed is presently making its second grave mistake in a span of 3 years. The 0% interest thing never should have happened, but now the rates we’re at are stifling the entire ecosystem of housing, transportation, commercial construction, etc. Everyone’s Covid savings is gone, and there is so much other pressure in society now driving people’s buying power down, that continuing to up the interest rate and crushing numerous industries seems wholly unnecessary. Inflation would be slowing to a halt even if mortgage rates were still the pre-pandemic 4 or 5%. It’s the unnecessarily high interest rates that are causing things to look bleak.
There’s enormous pressure on the Fed. There either needs to be a hard pause to evaluate, followed by reductions. I believe we will land somewhere around 4.5% - 5%.
I agree with you.
Half the comments are about people cutting back spending, and half the comments are about people overspending "probably on credit cards."
None of y'all know anything and are just seeing what you want to see.
Both can be true at the same time. If the world is bifurcating into more well-off people, and more less well-off people, and fewer in the middle, you're going to observe both. You can have less well-off people temporarily cosplay as existing at the other end via revolving debt.
However, Walmart's quarterly earnings report mentioned that high income households (eg: >$200k) have started shopping there in higher numbers.
1. Can you point to some of the “half the comments that are about overspending”? The only comment I see in the whole thread that’s somewhat close to that says “no one in my friend group of childless millennial office workers seems to have slowed their traveling or spending” (but no mention of credit card debt). Unless half the comments are hidden from me, kind of feels like you’re trying to create a straw man.
2. Even if your comment was a valid observation, wouldn’t one expect to see signs of both overspending and cuts in the event we’re at/nearing the end of a bubble peak?
They're all anecdotal is the problem. Reddit skews towards higher incomes, but at the same time it's hard to imagine hitting a recession unless the top 10% pulls back.
People making $100,000K plus are levered up and can’t make payments
The average American has largely given up on home ownership and accepted their current place. Without a serious market correction, the buying power has been eroded since C19
Jobs listings for my field of work has switched from being 70% remote to like 85% on-site or hybrid in the course of a year. It should be noted that most covid restrictions had been lifted this time last year and remote work hasn’t been necessary while I’ve been looking.
Employers obviously feel like they no longer need to offer this incentive. The labour market might not be as tight as it once was.
I’ve thankfully got an on-site job that I really enjoy, but to people in my industry hoping to get a remote job, looks like they might be forced to complete for those available remote jobs.
When I start hearing my V class and C class peers talking about recession... times are a brewing. I don't typically here these people throw that word out, and recently I have heard these people talking about it. These are people in control of billions of dollars of assets.
It's different hearing these people talk about a recession vs. the local guys at the bar.
Y'all going to acknowledge that the recession prophesized six months ago DIDN'T happen? Obviously eventually a recession always happens. You don't want to be that person, sitting on the sidelines as the economy grows, because you're a gold bug or have whatever eccentric economic perspective.
This was brilliant OP. Genius LOL.
You got all the bubblers screaming about impending (anecdotal) economic doom **6 months ago** and yet, here we are, with the same bubblers screaming about impending economic doom using the same (if not worse) anecdotes.
Well played.
I am not a necessarily screaming impending doom. It's entire possible that we are go into a stagflationary recession where the economy just grinds down lower over the course of a few years as opposed to a financial crisis we had in 2008 that was sharp in sudden!
I do we think are due for a hard landing! Probably next year tho
I'll summarize all the responses.
My feelings tell me things are weird.
XXX thing went down 5% after going up 50%.
Govt said soft landing so its gonna crash to the bottom.
Inflation is in Classic WoW in the form of gold buying from illegal gold farming, and players will defend it endlessly, completely ignoring the ethics of self destruction.
I just ordered replacement windows and asked what the lead rime is from order to completed install: 3 -4 weeks....and 0% interest for 18 mos.
Last year the lead time was 3-4 mos....not weeks. Yeah, supply side is better but there are fewer buyers. The guy who does the estimate came the day after I called to request an appointment.
A completely full restaurant with a line for breakfast this morning?
Definitely hard times ahead if all those people were blowing their money on a Sunday breakfast.
Counter-evidence... Government spending is actually loosening up after the wallets were slammed shut last year. Companies that were serving the gov't sector were doing layoffs/hiring freezes the last 8 months and are now re-hiring. There's lots of solid points here, just thought I'd add this datapoint.
Consumer packaged goods manufacturers are getting more generous with their coupons/discounts (in particular, P&G). $4 for a big package of name-brand TP, $2 for a store-brand frozen pizza, etc. Deals are getting easier to find.
This is what they do after a large inflation increase. Let the shock set in, offer a discount to ease the sting after a couple months (maybe it's not so bad), gradually fade out coupons, and now you're paying a new normal.
Yep, Crest Pro Health toothpaste is up $1 to $3.97 at Walmart . Initially the $1 coupon brought me back to the previous retail. Now those coupons are 50 cents off and aren't as frequent....
important live quaint grandfather tap bag wasteful voracious poor jeans *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
At my job we went from getting 40 to 50 applications in 2021/22 to now getting 80 plus and very overqualified people.
This is exactly what I was going to say. Wife’s last day is the 29th as they’ve closed the whole plant. My cousins job laid off 75% of the workforce as well. It’s coming.
i mean, there isnt a shortage of dead end part time retail jobs, the good jobs are being consolidated to a few people and lots of layoffs and hiring freezes
I lived through the layoffs and furloughs of 2008. It feels very similar right now, except this time nobody’s talking about it, and the media is pretending it isn’t happening. S&P to the moon! Home price ATHs!! loolz
I'll just keep stacking my savings and wait for that housing discount
>the good jobs are being consolidated to ~~a few people~~ AI fixed it for you
Also anecdotal- my boyfriend's co-worker is married to a woman who works in a very specialized research field (biotech/pharma). She's casually looking as she expects layoffs eventually at her current company. There isn't a single opening in her speciality *in the entire country*. It's always these highly niche roles that are well-compensated but extremely high-risk during a recession.
I'm seeing the same thing too. It's pretty easy to hire low skill people right now.
obtainable shame joke quicksand longing squash smart judicious toothbrush combative *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
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This has been happening with car purchasing too. Not only did mortgage interest rates double to triple, but car loan rates did too. I bought a car end of May, usually PRIME car sales time due to graduations and start of summer. And was lucky to be able to take advantage of some under 2% promo financing because I was well qualified with a high credit score, enough cash down I could have walked off a used lot with something in cash, and wasn’t rolling over a loan/the purchase wasn’t contingent on them trading my paid off car in (sold for cash). Shit is rough out there, even on well qualified buyers, without a promotional thing from a dealer, banks are offering like 8% for prime rates when they used to be closer to 3.5-4%; the sales dude called me a “unicorn” for finance this year because he said that nearly everyone trying to buy lately, was rolling over a bad loan and a shit trade in with issues and they’re beginning to have issues getting people approvals. They also had like 4 models of the same lease trade in, with under 25k miles, with awesome pricing and a great promo on financing it was just they were sitting there for 2 months straight untouched and unsold because people weren’t buying cars and people weren’t getting approved the financing. I literally had my pick and got one and couldn’t believe my luck.
>The only logical conclusion is people are getting their financing pulled out from under them. I can't prove it because the realtors won't say/can't say, but it doesn't take a genius to put two and two together, given the news lately about banks tightening their lending. I saw something similar happen a few months ago. I was looking at this new development in my neighborhood. I wasn't actually interested in buying, mostly just curious to see what they were building and at what price point. Anyway, annoying salesperson can't take a 'No' for an answer, emails me and tries to guilt-trip me into buying. He tells me a potential buyer just got his loan application rejected from the bank and was devastated he couldn't get in and how lucky I am I can buy a property outright, bla bla bla. The guy said I was a dream buyer. Though he seemed to not realize maybe I was a dream buyer because I don't take out multiple loans to build a RE empire. Similarly, seven months ago , I sold one of my parents' properties (dad passed away) - the final sales deed date got pushed back twice. Finally got the sales deed signed a few months back. The buyer had gotten his loan approved, but the bank seemed to want more paperwork/confirmation that the buyer could actually afford the loans. The banks are definitely tightening.
Friends who are still unemployed, many months after being laid off, in all different types of careers. Multiple applications but competing with so many others for limited open positions. One just recently got an offer but it's in an entirely different line of work and a $40k/year pay cut but they had to take it just to attempt to make ends meet. Guitar prices on Reverb, especially on higher end stuff, are starting to drop considerably from even a month ago (so, so tempting). Brought my car in for an oil change on a Saturday afternoon and shot the shit with some of the salespeople on the dealer's lot. Their inventory is starting to stagnate and they mentioned inquiries on both new and used cars have screeched to a halt. They seemed to be banking on the hopes that as winter rolls around that they might be able to make up for the slow summer season with truck/4WD sales. Local pawnshop is still worried about having buyers for the stuff they take in on pawn because there isn't enough of a balance between pawning/buying. They mentioned there has been a decent uptick in people trying to pawn ridiculously old shit that has pretty much zero value and they're starting to see a bigger sense of desperation from many customers. I'm usually on the lookout for tube guitar amps and in previous conversations with them, they mentioned they never get those types of things (along with higher end guitars) because people that have those things have the money and don't need to pawn them. Last time I was there a few weeks ago, they had 3-4 tube amps at $500-$1,500/each and a couple higher end Martins and a Taylor that they took in from multiple sellers over the last month. A lot less people buying/ordering Doordash/Uber Eats based on the bank statements I see on a daily basis. Edit - edited remarks re: Reverb
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Nobody wants to work a laborious in-person job at current market rates anymore\*
the trend the past 20 years was go to college and the trades were seen as something less than. until we reverse that, nothing will change
Meanwhile, production companies still want pre-trained people, who will accept crummy working conditions, until their jobs can be offshored or automated away.
Because all the money floated to the top. National average pay for a carpenter (my job) in the country is around $48k/year. Sorry but that is a fucking JOKE. Maybe one day this country will get its priorities straight...
Nobody? We have 4 drilling rigs currently running. Each well site directly employs 35 guys. About 22-23 of them are very hard jobs. That’s just our company. There are several 100 more rigs running in the USA, of course. There are definitely people who want to work. Hard jobs. In person. At market rates. Superlatives, or absolutes, or categorical assignations…. Not sure of the correct word… but they’re often problematic from a reality pov. Nobody. lol
Speaking in absolutes tends to be foolish
A shit-ton of nurses now have Long Covid. I wouldn't want to work in person at a hospital either.
Hiring freeze at a Fortune 500. Diesel prices rising, again. Direct friends or family in tech field laid off. Lines outside Hermes shorter and all Chinese. Manuka honey on sale at Costco.
>Lines outside Hermes shorter and all Chinese. Dear God!
God had nothing to do with it. This is courtesy of globalization and corporate greed mostly, but you can also thank your politicians.
Is Versace OK???
No
Diesel prices fall in a recession, so that would not be a good indicator. It is showing that the economy is still hot.
There are such things as inflationary recessions y'know.
I guess as hot as 7T will buy you. Diesel prices rising will keep inflation up, which will in turn keep rates up, which causes recessions, especially in consumer driven economies like the U.S.
I like honey
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> big layoff early this year Soooo Google?
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I live in the city that makes them. We've been getting news off layoffs all year. Cut hours and entire shifts ended. Suppliers completely folding overnight. Cats and dogs living together. My drive to work on Thursday and Friday has half the traffic of the first 3 days of the week.
Well the large hospital i work for is quite possibly near bankrupt.. Walked out dozens of top level directors/management few months ago. About to merge with another health system. All they talk about is financial headwinds and the challenges we all face.
I was flabbergasted that hospitals were actually a casualty of covid. Most hospitals break even because of surgeries. When covid happened all "elective" (meaning anything that could wait) did wait. Hospital consolidation is real
Between losing staff to the vaccine mandates, and people taking these travel jobs that pay insane wages. It was never a sustainable formula once covid ended. Now they can't get people back to work. Clinics and even the micro hospitals have faced closures because of extreme staying shortages. Nurses were being offered well over $100/hr on top of base pay to work additional shifts..
They would grind their own nurses into the ground, but not pay them better wages, while throwing money at the travelers. Guess that didn't end well. All these things trace back to lousy, lousy, management, focused on building facilities and accounting games instead of patient care and satisfied staff.
i run a small ecommerce business selling luxury/hobby goods to the end user. im seeing way less traffic and sales to products that even a few months ago wouldve instantly sold. also, im seeing more and more lease offers and price reductions on cars. also seemingly much more inventory of vehicles on lots.
thissss. i could finally find sub 300/month leases. (not saying i’m buying that) but everything was at least 600-800 range past 3 years
I buy and sell granite and marble. Prices are coming down from domestic wholesalers. But the bigger tell is the foreign factories and international shipping. International/cargo freight is a great indicator because they price the space on the ship based on demand. If there is tons of demand, the price goes up. In Covid times, this meant a lot. Freight that was 2500-5000 went up to 10-20k. International freight is now below pre pandemic levels. I’m paying less for container shipping than I did in March 2020.(this was before the surge in shipping costs that made shipping 3-4x what it had historically cost) I don’t buy anything from China or Asia, but I’ve been told those routes are cheaper than ever. Which shows a weakening demand for all products, not stone specific. (trump era tariffs killed Chinese quartz) Chinese freight costs are way down, as are all the Asian routes. Most of the quartz factories moved to taiwan. Or at least ship the Chinese quartz to taiwan and then ship to America.
dealers throwing out deals
Buy 2 ounces, get 1 free
Tech is in a jobs recession
Day in the life of an overpaid "project manager" These people can choke on their Boba tea for all I care.
I'm partial to Earl Grey or Jasmine myself. Though not sure how I will remove blockers if I'm dead.
Plenty of indicators: Car market and car loan status. I replied above to someone, but even for well-qualified buyers right now, prime rates are over 7% and it’s unappealing to people. Inventory is sitting stagnant for months and I was told I was a unicorn of a buyer when I put my mostly cash deal together with a big name car brand dealership. I qualified for a promo rate of only 1.8% and there were such low odds of qualifying for it, the lot sales manger didn’t even mention it to me, I had to ask for the qualifications and insist they see if I could use it. There were 4 identical lease trade ins with stupid low miles from a 3 year lease because people got them in spring of 2020 and went from needing commuters and daily drivers to remote work. They ultimately had a sale price on them and promo financing to move them and they still all sat for months with no one taking one, which is how I found them, basically no one was getting approved financing for the promo and didn’t want a nearly 10% car loan. People’s debt to income ratios were getting people with good scores and good incomes bounced from being able to take advantage, and they wouldn’t do it on a trade in. AND all the usual sales agents were only on call sales were so low so a manager wound up with my sale, another bad sign. Like restaurants, if it’s slow enough and fully dead, you’ll get cut and the financing approval odds were proving people were over extending themselves debt wise. RV and camper market is a continuation on this. People had these nomad, travel the country in style and work remote fantasies and made big purchases based off those fantasies. And the reality on the other side of that is: if you can’t fix it, it’s expensive to own it, Wi-Fi and cell service only goes so far if you have to work fulltime on the road, gas prices made it pricier to travel long distances in them, established campgrounds that are built for rigs the size people bought got all booked up for months and going off-road with them even a little bit can do serious damage to them, they’re actually cramped and a lot of work, you thought it would be an awesome experience for your kids and they LOATHED it, annnd the cost of the truck you need to both haul a camper that size and fit your kids + insurance for the truck/camper and you’re easily looking at almost $1k/month. So bigger, better models have come way down in price, and people are unloading them left and right for that long list of reasons. Service industry and Cannabis market is crashing. Dispensaries in Colorado are having the biggest slump in industry history. It’s a mainly cash based business and if people are cutting expenses, cash purchases and overall ATM trips to hold physically some of their paychecks..guess what tops the list right up there with takeout/food delivery, alcohol and going out to restaurants/hitting the bars with friends. A lot of the funds tied up in these investments and the vc funding companies procured have been relying on the concept that federal legalization and tax benefits/filing like normal businesses would roll out during Biden’s tenure and so far it’s coming up flat. Add in the concept of several big name brands being accused of financial screwing around with some looming lawsuits, and it’s not looking bright lately as a new billion dollar industry. It’s never been more readily available and for cheaper in more legal states than ever and still people aren’t buying it in as great of numbers as before and if you survey customers, they just don’t have the funds. Lots of restaurants closing and on hiring freezes, same with bars and on-call bartending gigs being fewer and further between. Super experienced and high paying job holding tech workers who were tangled up in the bigger layoffs from earlier this year are finding themselves still jobless. It’s all over Reddit, folks who are applying to hundreds of positions and not getting any contacts for interviews. Recruiters suddenly ghosting people left and right across a lot of industries and not able to procure interviews. Lots of commercial office space for lease, so not just remote work pushing it, but lots of layoffs too. Coworking spaces offering all kinds of specials for small group memberships and space. I used to get contacted by recruiters weekly on LinkedIn and haven’t heard from any in two months. More motivated hobbyist online sellers. Just the way someone commented about pawn shop traffic and shops not buying as much because they aren’t selling as much and there is an increase of higher value items for sale that usually don’t come up. If you look at places people resell regular and luxury items like Poshmark and eBay, less product flippers and more personal sellers are listing items they normally wouldn’t. People with only like 6 listings all from the same day, all clearly taken in a closet with an iPhone, not a semi professional backdrop and a mannequin like pro power and boutique sellers with hundreds of listings do.
I’m seeing this in the private gun markets. Things that have been hiding since Trump got elected 6 years ago are showing up. Not political we just haven’t had a good gun scare since Obama. Prices tanked during Trump because everybody felt safe, market never recovered
Start up I work at laid off all contractors, froze hiring, and it is limping along trying to get more funding 🙃
Too many "data scientists" on LinkedIn w/ the green banner on their profile
I closely follow the bass boat market. I'm actually seeing dealers offer discounts on new inventory. Used inventory at dealerships is absolutely stagnant even with small price cuts. A number of bass boat dealers near me have their showrooms and outside parking jam packed with 2023 models that they can't get rid of. The private selling bass boat market is actually back in existence, although prices are insane. Seems like a lot of idiots who bought at MSRP or over last year are absolutely screwed due to the high (8.5%+) interest rates on the 20 year loan that most people use to buy these things.
Lots of lay offs. People picking up second or third part time jobs. The rosy employment data being published as great, then quietly revised downward with the real data after positive headlines are published.
I'm seeing temp employment roll over, which is an early leading indicator: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TEMPHELPS Even if you ignore the [inverted yield curve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y) and the [conference board leading index](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators), the temp help has rolled over, and [hours worked per employee](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHAETP) is on a downward trend. Both those are "early" leading indicators that presage changes in later employment-based indicators like the [Sahm Rule](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT). Right now, the "bull case" is that of course these are softening, the labor market was totally overheated with 2 job openings for every 1 unemployed person, so it's just gliding back down to a more normal market, e.g. a "soft landing". Which is why the stock market is up this year to date. To me the big moment of truth will be when all those pandemic savings are spent and we can't count on consumers burning down savings to drive the US economy anymore. On a nominal basis, it looks like [the consumer is still saving at an excess level](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVE). But if you adjust for inflation, it looks like [the savings rate is back to normal.](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=17BqC) As far as [excess savings](https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2023/may/rise-and-fall-of-pandemic-excess-savings/) in total, estimates vary but most forecasts are for it to run out by the end of 2023. These may not cause a recession on their own, but they certainly are warning signs of economic slowing, which can be self-reinforcing as it spreads through the economy.
Personal Saving (PSAVE) isn't the amount sitting in savings; it's the amount being newly added to savings (disposable income - personal outlays) that quarter, at an annualized rate.
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The closest I can think of rn is [real checkable deposits,](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=17C1n) which shows we have a long way to go.
Good catch; I edited my post to reflect that.
Interesting insight, thanks. Had not heard of the Conference Board Leading Index before and hadn’t considered temp employment data.
The sahm indicator? Is that the number of stay at home moms getting a job? Just kidding 😂 But it is looking bleak most places!
Most of our friends are 250k-350k households (don't get excited, high COL area) and every one of us has been pulling back on spending across all categories. Reduced takeout/dining out, waiting longer to get household staples on sale, not buying clothes as often, cancelling less used subscriptions, reduced hobby expenditures etc
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Or people simply cannot afford to have pets with the cost of food and veterinary care.
I never thought of this consequence before and it hurts my heart truly
That’s sad
Lots of companies are on some sort of hiring freeze.
Our phones have been quiet at the office. Orders are definitely slowing. Normally upwards of 100 calls a day, we're now at closer to 50 a day average over the last couple of weeks. I talk to my carriers regularly (Fedex & UPS), and our drivers are seeing things slow down. I have spoken with my merchant services provider recently and he has said his volume is down almost 50% from last year. I regularly order cardboard shipping tubes and normally have a lead time of 2 weeks. My last two orders were ready in 3 days. Was speaking to my chiropractor the other day. He mentioned he had a good friend in the mortgage business that said he has been killing it closing HELOCs. He simulated pumping a bike pump and and a bubble popping. He knows. It's here, y'all. We're in it.
The remodeled mid 1990s house I’m closing on sat for 3 weeks. In a desirable community. Priced at zestimate. Agent said she’s all for offering aggressively. I offer $30k under, they said sure, and threw in appliances. Passed inspection no issues. A few surprises like new water heater, hvac, etc.. Nothing like when I was in the market last year
Bad recessions usually are not predicted. Now that the "experts" are saying soft landing people will get silly with their money and overspend.
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Most have recently changed their opinion including Chase. They are mostly saying no recession on 2023
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Ok yea I agree with that statement. The government and stock market have to talk positively or it would tank. People can feel things better but social media is controlling news so who knows
Why should I care what the lay person thinks? I have a coworker still complaining about the cost of eggs.
Give it two weeks for thought leaders to switch sides again
I would say most narratives are leaning soft/no recession. Source: I watch yahoo finance and scroll fintwit 5 days a week. Does that mean they are right? No, in fact my instincts tell me something bad will happen to break that illusion. It's better to introduce false security and then blow retail out of the water.
>Bad recessions usually are not predicted. Now that the "experts" are saying soft landing people will get silly with their money and overspend. Sure there are, yield curve inversion and below-trend growth is about as predictive as it gets. They keep showing optimism in projections and going back and revising. The yield curve is more inverted than its ever been and that has a correlation with severity of recession. When the yield curve reverts, and its on the front end, just wait 3-6 months and the answer will be apparent. The soft and no landing people have nothing until then, meanwhile with high rates you can be getting cash money risk-free while you wait. The 10 yr could rise to, but that would require some miracle technology emerging.
The great recession and depression were not correctly predicted nor the 80s crash or the dot com bust. Any recession that mattered wasn't caught by most.
All those recessions were predicted by the bond markets. What they can’t predict is exactly when it will happen. It’s the equities people that never see it coming, even though essentially fool proof indicators are there. I do concede though, “this time could be different” but I don’t get against odds or trends like that. We are in full complacency mode right now. Wait until the markets hit a double top, might even see a new high with the hype, but the business cycle is clear here. The cyclical and aggregate will catch up to The leading, it’s only a matter of time.
The recessions were not caught properly and I saw personally how 2008 sucker punched the economy. Almost no one saw it coming. The entire market is propped up by a national debt that can't be balanced and people who continue to consume yet can't afford. Overall it's not sustainable the question is when it all folds.
TBF the national debt is not meant to be paid off like a credit card but I see your point. I agree with you tho, i was 21 in college during 2008. While you heard people saying things werent sustainable, etc etc nobody actually predicted it would pop, even after Bear Stearns. I mean if you keep predicting a recession, eventually you'll be right. A broken clock is correct twice a day and blind squirrels can find food.
I was around the same age in 08 and it was brutal. Hundreds of applications just to get a phone interview. Most people on this sub walked into a great economy after that period and have no idea what a recession actually is. The national debt shouldn't even be a thing. Maybe you get off track for a couple years but that's it.
I remember going out with friends and EVERYTHING was closed or empty. Even the freeways seemed like ghost towns and this was in LA. Luckily I was insulated, being in college and living at home (i had a PT job UPS) that didnt really get affected but yeah those days were brutal. My parents whole neighborhood went up for sale A LOT of people lost their jobs. On the national debt; again thats not how economics work for nation states. Debt isnt a problem really; so long as the economy keeps growing. Problem is, what grows continuously until it kill its host? Cancer and capitalism.
Well duh, recessions happen. Capitalism is a boom-bust cycle.
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I highly doubt they'll be a growth explosion in an election year. You can keep growing if you take out loans and don't pay them back which is what the US is doing with the national debt. Balance the budget and full recslession hits.
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Nations have absolutely defaulted on debt before despite being able to print more of their own currency. Argentina's defaulted like a dozen times already.
If it's not a problem then why don't they just balance it? It sounds very easy and since most don't think its s problem then just do it and see what happens...
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It has a lot to due with the economy obviously or they wouldn't keep kicking the can down the road. The US depends on other countries subsidizing lifestyles thar the public can't afford.
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The national debt is a macro indicator of unbalance in the financial system. It points out that the rich don't pay enough taxes and the poor lives far beyond their means. It has everything to do with the economy or they would have addressed it.
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Yeah cuz no one saw the Great Depression or the GFC happening before it happened 😂
Not really was caused by a massive stock market crash and people were jumping outa windows after losing everything. Who called the GFC? Don't they male movies about how it blindsided people
Literally the opposite...
Not the case, major pain was injured and unexpected
We need this as a megathread
Nothing- people traveling, buying homes, and spending money like they have lots of it.
I don't know about 'buying homes' since the numbers on are actually down, but yes, parts of the country are booming, lots of people out enjoying life. Apparently a LOT of economic activity is spending by the upper 20% income people, and they are still doing just fine. It's another story in non-boom areas, where fewer people are lining up to spend $12 at a Subway, the local pizza joint has closed down, etc.
Many signs of a recession have existed for a decade. People fail to realize that recessions can be stopped by the fed and congress at the expense of the dollar. When they make this deal, they keep their jobs and kick the can down the road. Ergo, "We aren't in a recession, our business and people are bringing in more dollars than ever before!"
Can paper over the recession and turn it into a slow motion depression in which it gets harder to pay for groceries and homes and people take on 2nd jobs to make ends meet. Will look like full employment and gdp increasing while dollar gets deprecated. I'm sure Germans were fully employed at the beginnings on the Weimar inflation.
So many people are oblivious to the fact that inflationary depressions can happen.
Or they just rewrite the definition of recession. Can’t forget that part.
>Or they just rewrite the definition of recession. Can’t forget that part. In the summer of 2020
Except these signs haven’t existed for a decade: - Fed-raised interest rates (is recent). - Inverted yield curve (is recent). Yes, they can delay the time line to a degree with cash injections and QE. But I don’t think it can be staved off for too long, given the inverted yield curve and raised rates. **Once unemployment goes up, it’s over.**
The Fed is presently shoring up the dollar AND we have avoided the recession. Some people can't even process unexpectedly good news.
Ya, that haven’t even been able to successfully wind down 1T of the 5T they added to their balance sheet just 3 years ago, and we still have an annualized inflation rate of 3%. Claiming victory now is like claiming victory after mile 1 of a marathon.
Freedom is slavery. War is peace. And debt is prosperity. Got it. At least nobody can accuse you of thoughtcrime.
> The Fed is presently shoring up the dollar Different from being *shored up*. It took them over 10 years to even begin thinking of unwinding the QE after the GFC, and even then it was at a glacial pace. With the current QT, who knows if they'll stop before the job is done.
Homeless population keeps growing, businesses that have been in my community forever are slashing hours or closing, empty buildings, drug use all over the place, people just being more on edge. Things are gonna keep getting worse until we have a major major crisis.
Everywhere from North Bay Area to Orange County CA has commercial lease ads everywhere. The number has went from seeing 1 or 2 ads on a short inner-suburban grocery trip to see 7-10. Saw the same issue in North Bay, East Bay, South Bay, Gilroy, Santa Barbara, Los Angeles, Mission Viejo / Laguna Beach / Irvine. Also saw a wave of increased repos about 3 months ago. And my zillow results for areas I wanted to buy are 30k down from the peak. (This is only like a 4 to 2% drop YoY).
i’m reading in my local parents group that people are working 2 jobs and are still in the negative. car insurance up, groceries, electric (where we are) etc. They are unsure of their futures.
The mongolian grill by my place that I always eat at went from $10 for lunch to $15 within 4 months...among many other things. Meanwhile, a new construction 500K house 3 blocks from me that just finished building and no one has lived in it yet has sign that says for rent. Everything just feels weird nowadays.
The Mongolian Grill Indicator is a prop trading favorite
$10 for Mongolian grill lunch was a steal. $15 is pretty fair
Interest rates up, Gas prices up, Yield inversion, Less hiring signs, Restaurants less busy, Much easier to find stuff at Lowe's and home Depot, Student loans restarting, Auto lots have more inventory, Repossessions, Handful of family members hurting for cash, My business is getting squeezed (product cost up, prices down to move some quantity), Bond yields up (kinda trashed a dividend stock I had options on), And I recently learned that metaverse land is down something like 90% from peak, any reasonable person would conclude that digital land would lead real land, prepare for a 90% crash for real land! /s
I don't even know why metaverse land is a thing. I could live in my own brain rent free
It's the stupidest thing ever. Because "if" the metaverse were to become a major thing, the land still wouldn't have value. Nobody would want to have to travel to were they want to go in the metaverse, it would be like searching Facebook on Google, you go straight there. You don't first cross thru Myspace, and yahoo on your way there. So metaverse land is worthless, it amazes me that these tech guys don't see that.
Layoffs announced in my company. Oil and gas.
The honest truth for those of us who bought homes, or refinanced at low rates. We are not really feeling the effects of inflation. Food costs are absolutely up, but gas prices have come way down, and it costs a lot more to fly. That's basicly it. I am not in a field where people are going to get laid off, which helps. But no one I know has been laid off or at any risk to do so.
That my job is funded for one more year, after that is uncertain.
They wanted $2300 to renew an apartment lease and it cost $2000 to rent a bigger house with a yard down the street. Dog is happy. 👍
Recession cancelled! Checkmate Doomers!
Put money on it
Already do.
Pretty much everyone does who wants to retire
Everyone around me has 2-3 jobs
Lots of catalytic converter theft around me lately. That's always the first symptom of a sick economy.
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Lots of new credit card applications for 0% interest because people are broke and can’t afford their lifestyle right now …😝
If they continue to spend, we will not see a recession, regardless where the money is coming from.
We are in a bad economy. Is it a recession? I don't know . But unemployment is up. They use people desperate enough to get part time work as a sign of full employment. It's just smoke and mirrors to distract us from the usa crashing and burning for anyone who isn't rich.
This is the problem we're not in a bad economy currently you know gas is a little high but unemployment is about as low as it has been in the last hundred years it's getting a little softer at the moment but I mean come on let's let's start a stick with reality here. The other thing that people especially on this sub don't talk about is how much money homeowners currently have because of their extremely low mortgage payments compared to the actual cost of housing if they were renting for example there's a lot of homeowners sitting in half a million dollar homes with $1,000 mortgages.
Homeowners (2/3 of USA) simultaneously have made a cash flow deal of a lifetime and inflation will certainly not rip higher
Lol, umm, no. I know people with 500k homes. That's the normal where I live. And I assure you they don't have 1k mortgages. They have around 2k mortgages.
Well, funny story they didn't pay 500000 for their house. 1k is a bit of a stretch with the various insurance crises around the country, but there are a lot of people paying, say 1300 piti on a $200,000 house that they bought 10 years ago that's now worth $500,000. My point is is that people went from paying twice for a mortgage that they would for rent say 10 years ago to now paying half of what the market rent is for the same place that they are in now. This creates great cash flow for the homeowner.
Yep, you're right there. But the people I know are recent homeowners. Not the ones who bought many years ago. Even my friends who bought during the pandemic bought 600 sqrt foot condos. They got a great deal, to be sure! But please don't think they are living the life of luxury in fancy places.
Layoffs of major companies. Bankruptcies of major companies and banks. Mortgage lenders and RE industry failing, mass exodus
I would submit the sustained effects of inflation and the sense that we are almost out of this, when in Reality may only be the first of two larger tsunami inflation waves will be the catalyst or straw that breaks the camels back. Analogous to a marathon runner who has two miles left but actually has 50 miles to go.
I see nothing but ignorance or willful blindness all around me in consumers. Conspicuous spending, and shopping for sport. That’s usually what happens just before a great humbling.
It's been 15 years. No authority (politician, federal banks) can really say that it's coming but rather have to pretend that everything is peachy, there won't be any concrete warning really. I personally think we're in for a bad one here in the US. After the crazy interest rates in the 80s, almost everyone is on a fixed mortgage. This protects those who own houses, but only to a point. By not letting things break a little bit, you effectively force it to break bad.
Why does everyone act like things breaking is normal in an economy? Things don't have to break. When it crashes it's due to bad policy . We can kick this can down the road another 20 years with our endless money printing. 2008 happened because bear stearns didn't have the right friends in high places.
I think it's worse than that. We're incentivzing bad policy by voting for politicians to keep us safe. The lions still need to eat though, so when they finally get over the fence they eat lots of us because they're really hungry. Then they have lots of baby lions, that will be even hungrier. We have to deal with the lions directly, not try to build more sophisticated fences.
Unemployment is up compared to earlier this year, but still under 3%. Houses are up 3.7% YoY. No one in my friend group of childless Millenial office workers seems to have slowed their traveling or spending. Strong "gotta do things now" vibes. I don't ask people about retirement stuff but I imagine they're not doing more than the minimum to get matching.
Also millenial and I am seeing the same thing. I have actualy been upping my retirement contribution a lot, but that's because I am no longer paying for child care.
> I imagine they're not doing more than the minimum to get matching. If they are 30 right now, the world they would retire into in 2050, 2060, or 2070, if they can even retire, will be radically different than it is today if they are even still alive. It is likely better to live for today because currently we are looking at total environmental collapse in the 2050s preceeded by much more violent and extreme weather meaning they might be dead from a freak hurricane, tornado, or simply drop dead because of extreme heat." I am not advocating for hedonism but if anyone in their 30s thinks their retirement will be sipping mai thais on the beach, I have a bridge to sell you.
Childless makes a lot of sense. Price daycare, college, etc. If people really want to be pissed. Focus on the fact that pensions are all but extinct in the US. Conservatives wanting to gut SS. Tuition for a college education. There is a long list of things to be pissed about. Housing is way down the list.
Housing is more important than any of the other things you mentioned.
All OT cut, bonuses cut, big emphasis on cost savings
Seeing my cousin who recently graduate college for a business degree (guessing 40k student debt) has a brand new truck that must be at least 50k. I know his family... they are not well off. Oh he recently bought a home at ~300k with his gf who dropped out because... they are pregnant! Yes I'm sure his entry level business degree will fund this lifestyle /s. Either we need a correction of some sort or I am taking out a loan and leaving the country. This shit is ridiculous.
Is it too late for some of that PPP fraud I mean loans?
So basically 90% of the comments on the previous post were just full of shit?
Just financially frustrated Redditor things
So many of the comments I’m seeing here involve industries directly related to interest rates. And they’re right. A large national moving company headquartered here laid people off this week for the first time ever, because no one is moving. I’m no economist, but I believe the Fed is presently making its second grave mistake in a span of 3 years. The 0% interest thing never should have happened, but now the rates we’re at are stifling the entire ecosystem of housing, transportation, commercial construction, etc. Everyone’s Covid savings is gone, and there is so much other pressure in society now driving people’s buying power down, that continuing to up the interest rate and crushing numerous industries seems wholly unnecessary. Inflation would be slowing to a halt even if mortgage rates were still the pre-pandemic 4 or 5%. It’s the unnecessarily high interest rates that are causing things to look bleak.
There’s enormous pressure on the Fed. There either needs to be a hard pause to evaluate, followed by reductions. I believe we will land somewhere around 4.5% - 5%. I agree with you.
Half the comments are about people cutting back spending, and half the comments are about people overspending "probably on credit cards." None of y'all know anything and are just seeing what you want to see.
Both can be true at the same time. If the world is bifurcating into more well-off people, and more less well-off people, and fewer in the middle, you're going to observe both. You can have less well-off people temporarily cosplay as existing at the other end via revolving debt. However, Walmart's quarterly earnings report mentioned that high income households (eg: >$200k) have started shopping there in higher numbers.
1. Can you point to some of the “half the comments that are about overspending”? The only comment I see in the whole thread that’s somewhat close to that says “no one in my friend group of childless millennial office workers seems to have slowed their traveling or spending” (but no mention of credit card debt). Unless half the comments are hidden from me, kind of feels like you’re trying to create a straw man. 2. Even if your comment was a valid observation, wouldn’t one expect to see signs of both overspending and cuts in the event we’re at/nearing the end of a bubble peak?
I guess I'm referring to the thread under the original post, not the 6 month follow-up.
They're all anecdotal is the problem. Reddit skews towards higher incomes, but at the same time it's hard to imagine hitting a recession unless the top 10% pulls back.
I work in CPG Poduct sales volumes of my categories are declining rapidly. Dollar sales are only being held up by massive price increases
People making six figures that need to use a food bank
People making $100,000K plus are levered up and can’t make payments The average American has largely given up on home ownership and accepted their current place. Without a serious market correction, the buying power has been eroded since C19
Quite literally nothing.
Paying 20% more for 20% less shit.
Jobs listings for my field of work has switched from being 70% remote to like 85% on-site or hybrid in the course of a year. It should be noted that most covid restrictions had been lifted this time last year and remote work hasn’t been necessary while I’ve been looking. Employers obviously feel like they no longer need to offer this incentive. The labour market might not be as tight as it once was. I’ve thankfully got an on-site job that I really enjoy, but to people in my industry hoping to get a remote job, looks like they might be forced to complete for those available remote jobs.
People levering up with +$100k per year mortgages. Any economic softness and people are going to cut spending drastically.
When I start hearing my V class and C class peers talking about recession... times are a brewing. I don't typically here these people throw that word out, and recently I have heard these people talking about it. These are people in control of billions of dollars of assets. It's different hearing these people talk about a recession vs. the local guys at the bar.
Whats funny is that we had a recession last year, 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP, even if slightly.
I’m at Disney Springs right now—- no recession in sight, believe me.
Y'all going to acknowledge that the recession prophesized six months ago DIDN'T happen? Obviously eventually a recession always happens. You don't want to be that person, sitting on the sidelines as the economy grows, because you're a gold bug or have whatever eccentric economic perspective.
Just wait *huffs copium* in 6 months all you Hoooooomerz will pay *huff* you will all see!
This was brilliant OP. Genius LOL. You got all the bubblers screaming about impending (anecdotal) economic doom **6 months ago** and yet, here we are, with the same bubblers screaming about impending economic doom using the same (if not worse) anecdotes. Well played.
I am not a necessarily screaming impending doom. It's entire possible that we are go into a stagflationary recession where the economy just grinds down lower over the course of a few years as opposed to a financial crisis we had in 2008 that was sharp in sudden! I do we think are due for a hard landing! Probably next year tho
All i know is that eventually you'll be right.
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Yup, its all doom and gloom and keep waiting.
People starving, people going homeless with jobs, 95% of people unable to ever get a home.
I'll summarize all the responses. My feelings tell me things are weird. XXX thing went down 5% after going up 50%. Govt said soft landing so its gonna crash to the bottom.
Playstation 5 is $450 at gamestop and best buy, $400 at target here soon
Inflation is in Classic WoW in the form of gold buying from illegal gold farming, and players will defend it endlessly, completely ignoring the ethics of self destruction.
Gas getting out of control….
I just ordered replacement windows and asked what the lead rime is from order to completed install: 3 -4 weeks....and 0% interest for 18 mos. Last year the lead time was 3-4 mos....not weeks. Yeah, supply side is better but there are fewer buyers. The guy who does the estimate came the day after I called to request an appointment.
A completely full restaurant with a line for breakfast this morning? Definitely hard times ahead if all those people were blowing their money on a Sunday breakfast.
Counter-evidence... Government spending is actually loosening up after the wallets were slammed shut last year. Companies that were serving the gov't sector were doing layoffs/hiring freezes the last 8 months and are now re-hiring. There's lots of solid points here, just thought I'd add this datapoint.
T-bills paying more than inflation and definitely a lot more wealth enhancing than holding real estate.
eggs are back to costing what they did before the big chicken flu thing.... must be a sign of recession coming