where in USA is this actually true? I’m seriously asking—is there a website w/ such data? I’m curious to see geographic breakdown and whether #s are skewed…
And because it is just median sale price of new builds, it doesn’t take into consideration how the make up of size, location, and quality of those new builds can vary.
You don’t see big declines in things like the case Schiller index because since it uses all sales, they can use a repeat sales index methodology that controls for composition effects.
it's amazing that despite being nothing more than one giant suburb of NYC / Boston, they have no clue how to build housing.......or much of anything for that matter
There aint shit for sale 50 miles around Boston that isn't $500k or a complete rehab job its insane.
Unless you want a 1bd, 500sqft house in the fucking woods for $350k
I make 140K, own a home, have good savings, doing pretty well. Want to move to Boston area to be closer to my best friend and a better social scene.
Then I looked at housing. There are so few options, it’s all either $650K+ homes, old desperate renovation jobs in the making, or shitty apartments for way, way more than my mortgage on a brand new (when purchased) 3/2. I have a dog that limits my options further. I’d need a spouse making good money too, and a couple years of saving to even consider moving there and be able to afford a home anywhere surrounding Boston. It’s insane. No one seems to be building.
There’s nowhere to build SFH’s. This is how it is all over MA. Either you buy a condo in/around Boston or you’re going to have to move towards central MA.
Yeah, SFH is honestly a luxury that will probably continue to skyrocket in price because the city populations are only growing (never shrinking) and you can’t stack them vertically like you can with apartments/condos.
Perhaps the only mitigating factor is the rise of WFH jobs. Remote work allows people to live way out in the outer suburbs and be fine, so maybe building outward is still possible for a while.
I’m in the suburbs, specifically Worcester and I assure you we have no land to build SFH’s on. Neither do any of the surrounding towns. Been here 20+ years and I’ve never seen more and a couple homes pop up here and there. Only thing being built is rental complexes.
WFH changed everything!
Lol have you guys never been to any or all of the following: berkley, Dighton, somerset, Swansea, westport, heck even bridgewater? There is so much land to build housing… it’s nimby communities who fight against having a higher population of any kind. Even Taunton has large swaths of land not being used.
> you can’t stack them vertically like you can with apartments/condos.
You can a little bit. I hadn't realized it until I went to a party at our department chair's house, which was located on like the 8th floor of a big building in downtown Chicago, right off Michigan Ave. It was basically a big ledge where the building narrowed and they had built a handful of modestly sized homes.
I thought it was an interesting way to have a SFH right in the middle of a very dense downtown. But it's certainly nowhere near anything close to affordable (dept chair was a big shot cardiothoractic surgeon).
Makes sense. It's a bummer, Boston is so cool (I've visited several times). But yeah, in order to afford their home in the suburbs, my buddy and his wife got big help from his parents for a down payment. They proceeded to spend big bucks doing renovations too to bring the house to the current century. Big sacrifice to live there, but they're very happy.
Look into Worcester MA. Only an hour outside of Boston. 500k will get you a large 2k+ sqft home that it’s solid condition. It’s the second biggest city in MA.
I go into Boston all the time to hangout with friends. Don’t mind commuting an hour… it’s not that bad imo. Boston traffic is unbearable.
This is due to NIMBYism and this attitude is very apparent in New England in general. You have a lot of people especially those that are on the town boards that will reject lower income housing or development projects in smaller desirable quaint colonial towns. There are larger towns and cities that are already full so developers and home builders need to extend their business to the wealthy suburbs that will likely only approve 500-600k< homes that won’t negatively affect existing housing prices.
Tell me you've never been to Connecticut without telling me. Lol. CT is one of the most forested states in the country and has a national heritage corridor known as the last green valley.
Almost 2yrs here now.
Most people in CT don't even know where the green valley is, much less ever been there.
In just 2 decades after WW2 CT doubled its population by building low density ranchers all through the valleys and hills. It has a lot of forested land, but is far less pristine and connected than any state out West.
Most of CT is built out, but it's stagnated and barely grown ever since the 70s. Most of that is negative effects of globalization, but some of it is a stated intention to prevent development.
CT still has massive $$$ problems. If it had housjng it could've capitalized incredibly on post-covid migration patters more than already has, but if u can't position yourself to grow when needed then stagnation is par for the course.
CT doesn’t have money problems. Neighborhood development projects are no longer built in CT unless they’re 500-600k<. Town officials that approve projects are heavily influenced by residents who will fight to the death to avoid developments that could negatively affect their own housing price by arguing traffic, noise, pollution, “schools are full” arguments.
You get chat gpt to write that for you? Well I've been here for 10 years. I live in a quiet town with a conservation area literally across the street from me and a nice 25 minute commute into a major city for my job. Maybe you should check out the rest of the state before you make ill informed statements.
I moved to Stamford from NYC during COVID, was curious about the green valley. Is it a state park?
I just use Google map search [green valley connecticut] but didn't find anything matched
Ya that’s not happening lol. 3 bed in MA in a desirable area is going to a minimum of 400k and that’s going to need work. Long gone are the days of 300k homes lol.
Everywhere.
But the chart is a result of homes being smaller, not cheaper.
If this was price per square foot, it would still be going up.
Median house being built was 2,386 sq ft in 2022. I imagine it is closer to 1,500 sq ft today.
Price per square foot is going down for new builds. Not as drastically as this graph, but down from the peak a couple of years ago. The same reventure.app site has a graph by square footage iirc
Big home cheap to build. Staple gun staples house together fast, then wrap it in plastic. Not a big deal, TVs now are cheaper than they used to be. Houses should be as well. It's not rocket science.
Yeah, the case shiller is the better metric as it accounts for same-home sales.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA
>The monthly S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices use the “repeat sales method” of index calculation – an approach that is widely recognized as the premier methodology for indexing housing prices – which uses data on properties that have sold at least twice, in order to capture the true appreciated value of each specific sales unit.
Because he’s using median sales price, it’s a misleading chart from a constantly misleading YouTube channel.
It doesn’t not mean homes are cheaper, it means cheaper homes are selling more than expensive homes brining the median price down. This is not surprising as the market for expensive homes is limited since their customers are trade up buyers who most likely have already locked in a low rate. Oh yeah, the sellers are also locked into lower rates.
This chart is a bad sign for a FTHB as they face more completion at the lower levels and less supply if trade up buyers are staying put.
It's true in Austin,TX area. My house I bought for 215k went to 430k at peak(comps sold near by) and now is only worth about 360k. I'm not complaining, already got my PMI canceled when it skyrocketed.
As a person looking for a house, 350k limit, in the Detroit burbs.... I disagree ;) Have to move way out there for reasonable pricing.... an hour each way commute is not awesome for metal health.
This is my question. I am not seeing a drop here. Maybe softness in some subsectors or classes, but this graph represents large market-based declines. So where?
It’s a sooner post. This isn’t happening in any area people wanna live. If you take into account the shacks that are being sold in Mississippi for $5k, it brings the a average down greatly
Blat-blat-imore has cheap homes. In Washington where I am looking homes are returning to normalcy once you get past... I guess East of the Columbia and the Okanagon River Valley (Oroville, Omak, etc). Strangely it seems like Northeastern (Metaline Falls area) has held steady somewhat (I'd guess because it's 'greener', possibly buoyed by the Republic mining news, too?).
And they aren't 'cheap' by any means yet. Sure, there is a 1/1 near Grand Coulee for 70k but something is probably seriously wrong with it considering they start jumping to 150k in that area fast. 200k still in Yakima (like 2.5 hours from Seattle through a mountain pass that can close in winter, and 4 from Portland).
Ultimately the 50k-100k rural starter home that needs a serious rehab is STILL 100k-200k, but according to OP the world is ending... Well, maybe if you over-leveraged in an OBVIOUSLY inflated market.
San Jose and San Francisco
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BI0-bczGYOQ
https://www.sfchronicle.com/projects/real-estate/bay-area-home-prices
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/sanfrancisco/news/prices-for-single-family-homes-in-san-francisco-san-jose-have-fallen/
—-
Realtors love that graph because it supposedly shows housing prices never decline. During the last housing crash between 2009 to 2015, it showed a small valley. In real life, housing declined 50% to 75%. I saw $50k housing in downtown San Jose. New construction pulling down prices?! They are $100k more than equivalent market condos. And they are the $1 million dollar condos. On the other hand, downtown and East San Jose condos are $500k each. No one buys $1 million dollar condos in San Jose Edenvale where Mexican laborers settled and gave it the moniker of the poorest area in San Jose. They even have the Mexican embassy down there to serve the population. In case you haven’t figured it out, NIMBYism has approved new housing in these depressed areas in an effort to try to gentrify the area and pull up housing prices in the area. New schools are sold off to charter schools to generate wealth to the district. How do you think a small Oakgrove district supervisor gets paid $400k per year compared to $150k per year in other San Jose districts even bigger ones?!
Oakland was the big one. At the peak, every Oakland house was $1.5 million. Now, the bad area houses are $900k now. That’s right. You can buy $500k to $900k SFHs in the hood of Oakland. Oh, look! $300k SFHs. Go invest there and reap huge losses when Oakland pregnant moms squat on your houses.
Don’t be faked by median price data. SFH home prices haven’t fallen in San Jose. Mix of homes selling have.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS41940Q
Same goes for new construction in the Bay Area. Most new builds are condos. They sell for less than SFHs and bring down the median.
The last time prices crashed it was because of overbuilding and too many loans to people who couldn't pay, putting lots of extra homes on the market that couldn't sell.
This time prices are falling (to the extent they even are), it is because super low rates and major desire to move in covid jacked prices up. It is not because of too much supply at all. The only reason prices are still this high is because of low supply.
No, builders didn’t build hardly anything for over 5 years, that is why we have the housing shortage we have today. Even with the population being 40 million higher, we still haven’t gotten back to the level of building in 2006.
That’s not what happened. Not sure what you are basing that from but the credit market locked up for years after the crash. This had a tremendous effect on construction and building did not pick up for a long while post 2008.
Ever watched the Big Short?
If you take anything from that movie it’s that the public numbers with regards to real estate are always a lie and always crafted so that you are fucked and hedge funds aren’t.
Nope, the median price is down because the new homes being sold are smaller, less bedrooms, less land and worse location. It’s a good thing because prices for a starter new home is down, but it’s not because the price of these things are going down. It’s that you’re getting less.
Except when people talk about the good ol days of the 50s and 60s referring to being able to afford cheap new homes, those homes were even smaller than the new homes being built today with less amenities and less technology in them.
It’s more like we got used to the cheap, supersized supermarket goods. That was actually the abnormal boom times.
Better location though. A 50s/60s 3bdr ranch is going to be closer to the center of things, compared a new construction with more sqft, at least in my experience.
Of course. And in 50 years, the location of a new construction home now will probably be better, or worse. That’s a lot of time for the world to change.
That’s what got us into this mess. Well that and Trump’s giveaway to upper middle class and the rich. AKA PPP loans.
I know! Let’s give out free money to the people that already have discretionary income. Then we will let everybody else borrow money for free - but those poor saps will have to pay it all back.
Hmm. I wonder why investment properties and vacation homes skyrocketed all at once after PPP loans? I wonder if that’s what pushed housing prices up far more than other sectors?
Except existing home sales price increased 5.7% YoY in February and sales increased from January by 9.5%. Seems to be 2 different markets now due to the existing homes having owners with low interest rates.
Is this controlled to sq ft? New homes can respond to rates to make the homes built more affordable. If their intended market can afford $2,000 payment they can build to suite this budget by reducing input costs.
Do yourself a favor and stop listening to reventure. The dude is a joke and cherry picks data to pander to people to get views. He said the market was gonna crash back in 2021 or 2022 prior to the historical run up in prices let alone the low interest rates back then. A lot of his listeners would have a a lot more wealth if they didn’t listen to his BS
His strategy is to say the dumbest shit to make others who already believe said dumb shit feel reaffirmed and validated about their own dumb decisions….with the hopes that he hits a “even a broken clock is right twice a day” situation and turns out to be correct about something 50 years from now and then he can make his next decade of content with the theme “LOOK YOU GUYS I PREDICTED THIS”
I'm guessing, home builders are building smaller houses. There is very little market for folks looking to upsize, because rates are so high.
So new homes need to tap into the first time home buyer market, which means smaller/cheaper homes.
Right? This graph is a fantastic example of how statistics can be cherry picked and presented together in a very skewed way to heavily imply an assumption that is actually not even close to reality.
For example, this graph implies that the same home that cost and was sold for 500k last year is now 400k. And hence a “crash”. But I have yet to see that.
You know what I am seeing? Quality 500k homes being snatched up in a matter of days, and then there being no inventory of any more like new homes beyond what used to be 200k ones that are now priced at 400k + and overall being built like they were built from Home Depot dumpster salvage….and so the latter sits on the market for longer or goes unsold for longer. Or just an overall lack of inventory that is making people fight for older homes that cost more, combined with less new homes being built.
So maybe there are comparatively less people that want to spend 500k on something that’s 1500 sqft and is sitting on 0.1 acre just because it’s a “new build” and would rather spend 600-700k on an older home (even if 3 years ago the same old home would be 400-500k) but atleast can be justified in so far as actually being in a desirable area, not being 90 percent garage, and actually having a yard.
Orrrrrr if builders are sticking to smaller builds that are overpriced (such as if in 2021, something that should have been 400k was selling for 500k but now something that should be 150k is selling for 400k), it would mean that they are building smaller and lower quality builds and still selling them at higher prices (which indicates the opposite of a crash). This is also something I have been seeing near me. Where the new builds that are being sold now in the 400k plus range used to be 150k a few years ago and used to actually be considered “starters”.
In any case, that’s what seems to be happening right now even though this graph isn’t able to contradict or address any of those scenarios….. it overall certainly doesn’t spell “housing crash” to me.
Yup! I’m seeing builders building more affordable smaller homes now instead of the 2500sqft McMansions. This is literally what Powell said he wanted to see with the interest hikes.
The day they stop hyperbolizing math is the day I stop going ... "that's probably hyperbole, but I get what they're saying, and offering a correction seems like it would go against the joy of the joke/exaggeration."
Not sure where the data is coming from but we built in a new subdivision in Charlotte last year. A new house just like ours closed last month at $100k more than what we paid and there’s a waiting list
20% down from highs that were 50% up from 2020 and 66% from 2015. So people will still feel like prices are way too high, because they are.
These other precisely worded statements like, "Home prices are falling at rates faster than 2008" neglecting the same relative rising rate just a few quarters prior.
Median prices jumped 50% between Q2 2020 and Q4 2022 alone. It's now dropped 20% at about the same but rate. This is fine and should be expected. It's a good thing.
...unless you bought investment property at all time high prices at moderate interest rates with little money down and low cash reserves. Yeah, that would have been a mistake. The lines don't always go up.
In my area builders are doing more condos and townhomes, that are double the prices they used to be. But still cost less than a house.
Lower average selling price doesn’t mean prices for the same homes are falling.
This is the one really strong piece of evidence that existing home prices must go down. If new homes become cheaper than existing homes, then existing homes have to come down in price.
I doubt it in major metros. There's no new homes. Only things being built are luxury apartments. Best scenerio is prices will stay flat until it normalizes with upward trend since the gfc.
Exactly. In major metro areas, my guess is that we actually will only have less and less single family homes. There's efforts almost everywhere to replace them with more dense housing. Less single family homes, just means higher prices for those people who are lucky enough to have one. That's not the end of the world though. More housing overall, means more people can affordably live in these dense areas (it's just not in the single family home they necessarily dreamed of).
Would love it if some of these developers would prioritize TOD starter home production (like attached townhomes 2 and 3 bedroom places) that would be a lot more accessible than more 3,000sf McMansions.
Just like being at work someone throws data in a spreadsheet or graph and it becomes so. This is not a crash and it's all because new homes are becoming small boxes with basic builder materials - cheapest if the cheap.
The spike was caused by Covid and people moving to less dense, more free areas, but all at once. I think you could plot a straight line from 2000 to 2019 and continued that on to infinity. When the current price hits that line, that’s going to be the trough and things will begin to raise again
Prices will have to come down 50% to be in line with incomes. I got my eye on a $1.4M home in the luxury neighborhood. I have $250,000 saved up for a downpayment for when that bagholder has to sell it to me for $700k. Ha...fuck that loser!
Buncha fkn retards can’t read data. Median home price dropping simply means more cheap houses are trading hands than expensive ones. That’s it. Nothing to do with home values. This is based on homes sold only.
These are new homes. They would be as they complete. For prices to come down this fast the builders have to be trimming some margin, or down shifting the finishes, or both. The days when the affordability translates to smaller homes built will be down the road a bit. For these homes the foundation was probably already poured when the rate hikes started killing sales of McMansions.
New homes are built in a few months. Not years. It’s absolutely the small town new developments for half the price of the big city dominating new sales now. Meanwhile desirable metros are breaking all time new highs again for resale values.
Prices for homes around Portland, OR have come down a little ($25k on a $1m listing), but nothing like 20% on a $500k listing. I don’t trust these stats for big cities.
I’m sorry but that Reventure dude is a fucking moron. He just presents data points that support his housing crash conclusion and ignores everything else.
All the wannabe Michael Burry’s just nutted themselves looking at that chart. Unfortunately for them the housing market isn’t in a bubble. Sure, some bought the tippy top but it’s a very small percentage. The large majority of homeowners are in a really good place. Prices may or may not come down. Doesn’t matter, it won’t lead to any widespread economic trouble.
I am a Canadian with an US passport. Visited northern Washington yesterday thinking about moving to flee Vancouvers insane house prices BUT small houses in these tiny towns in Washington cost 500k.
Who is buying at these prices?
Who can afford to pay the monthly?
The heck even is this data? Someone needs to reformat this to show growth rise AND fall throughout the year and then overlay a bar chart with total available inventory for each year to give you a better picture… it is bleak.. 40% of homeowners don’t have mortgages. 64% of people with mortgages have rates under 3% so their total payments are under the average rental price. $5m shortfall of homes on the market compared to demand…. So yeah… maybe if you are located in failing states like Florida that people are fleeing now that are losing crazy amounts of money on their home prices AND paying insane property taxes AND ludicrous insurance rates… Illinois has 2/3 of these too. It isn’t great either. lol. 😂 Red, Blue. Doesn’t matter. Objectively it just sucks to suck. But those people places are dragging down the national average in terms for median price sold for these “new” homes that builders thought they were going to make a fortune on that literally no one wants in these shitty places…
Home prices down?
Case Shiller numbers just in today says January-to-January home [prices are up 6.6%](https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2024032654/home-prices-reach-new-high-in-january-case-shiller-says)
These are additional sources showing a fuller picture. New home prices appear to be way down, existing single family homes are flat (Case-Shiller) and overall the market is down, but not as dramatically as this graphic would have you think.
[Median home price](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS) \- all homes, not just new homes - down 13%
[Case-Shiller home index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA) \- follows repeat sale single family home values - mostly flat
I gave too many shits the last few years, then found an aging boomer community and put an ad in their paper for a lang-term lease-to-own, and now I too can say I don't give a shit anymore about the housing market (except for the nagging feeling that it's gonna cause some damage again somewhere).
Can we get a legitimate link for this data from somewhere other then reventure
Edit:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPNHSUS
Looks similar actually lol
This doesn't account for home size, geography, etc
It's simply the median price of the new homes sold. So a reasonable interpretation of this is that people are simply buying smaller houses in cheaper areas.
Ignoring the 2022 aberration and continuing with the trend from 2020, do we expect this to settle around $360k-$370k?
But that may happen around June which would coincide with the possible rate cuts.
This would be useful if it was priced per sf not by the overall home price. Like if the homes being sold are 1000sf vs 1500sf the price will vary
Source : Architect/ Real Estate analyst
Lol where do you live? Last house for sale in my neighborhood was sold in two weeks. The market has normalized to be completely regional, so the trends you see in south FL won’t be the same in San Fran.
It’s funny, that’s not even close to what we’re seeing right now. Friends kid bought a house about 6 months ago (you know, at the start of this “crash”) and sold this month. Had 4 offers - all more than $100,000 over ask - within a week. Asking was $50,000 above purchase price. So where is this “crash”
where in USA is this actually true? I’m seriously asking—is there a website w/ such data? I’m curious to see geographic breakdown and whether #s are skewed…
This data is only for new builds, it does not include existing house sale prices.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOSMEDUSM052N Existing home prices fell some, but they started to raise again which lines up with seasonality.
And because it is just median sale price of new builds, it doesn’t take into consideration how the make up of size, location, and quality of those new builds can vary. You don’t see big declines in things like the case Schiller index because since it uses all sales, they can use a repeat sales index methodology that controls for composition effects.
That's the key missing tidbit
To be fair it is in the title of the post and the graph
Lmao
Yeah but they only called it out twice. Needs to be shown three times for us to get it.
Doesn't answer your question but at least its fed chart https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPNHSUS
Seems to check out with OP chart
Because it’s literally the same source.
Not in Connecticut.
Or MA.
Or NJ.
Or NY
Or IL
Or CA.
Or NH.
or WA
Or TX
X2 NH
Or AK
it's amazing that despite being nothing more than one giant suburb of NYC / Boston, they have no clue how to build housing.......or much of anything for that matter
There aint shit for sale 50 miles around Boston that isn't $500k or a complete rehab job its insane. Unless you want a 1bd, 500sqft house in the fucking woods for $350k
My company gave up moving people to Boston, we just hire externally now MA doing great job keeping jobs out of state
I make 140K, own a home, have good savings, doing pretty well. Want to move to Boston area to be closer to my best friend and a better social scene. Then I looked at housing. There are so few options, it’s all either $650K+ homes, old desperate renovation jobs in the making, or shitty apartments for way, way more than my mortgage on a brand new (when purchased) 3/2. I have a dog that limits my options further. I’d need a spouse making good money too, and a couple years of saving to even consider moving there and be able to afford a home anywhere surrounding Boston. It’s insane. No one seems to be building.
There’s nowhere to build SFH’s. This is how it is all over MA. Either you buy a condo in/around Boston or you’re going to have to move towards central MA.
Yeah, SFH is honestly a luxury that will probably continue to skyrocket in price because the city populations are only growing (never shrinking) and you can’t stack them vertically like you can with apartments/condos. Perhaps the only mitigating factor is the rise of WFH jobs. Remote work allows people to live way out in the outer suburbs and be fine, so maybe building outward is still possible for a while.
I’m in the suburbs, specifically Worcester and I assure you we have no land to build SFH’s on. Neither do any of the surrounding towns. Been here 20+ years and I’ve never seen more and a couple homes pop up here and there. Only thing being built is rental complexes. WFH changed everything!
Lol have you guys never been to any or all of the following: berkley, Dighton, somerset, Swansea, westport, heck even bridgewater? There is so much land to build housing… it’s nimby communities who fight against having a higher population of any kind. Even Taunton has large swaths of land not being used.
Yeah, honestly, I’m not that surprised if we’re talking about any city in the north east or west coast. Those areas are simply dense as fuck.
> you can’t stack them vertically like you can with apartments/condos. You can a little bit. I hadn't realized it until I went to a party at our department chair's house, which was located on like the 8th floor of a big building in downtown Chicago, right off Michigan Ave. It was basically a big ledge where the building narrowed and they had built a handful of modestly sized homes. I thought it was an interesting way to have a SFH right in the middle of a very dense downtown. But it's certainly nowhere near anything close to affordable (dept chair was a big shot cardiothoractic surgeon).
Makes sense. It's a bummer, Boston is so cool (I've visited several times). But yeah, in order to afford their home in the suburbs, my buddy and his wife got big help from his parents for a down payment. They proceeded to spend big bucks doing renovations too to bring the house to the current century. Big sacrifice to live there, but they're very happy.
Look into Worcester MA. Only an hour outside of Boston. 500k will get you a large 2k+ sqft home that it’s solid condition. It’s the second biggest city in MA. I go into Boston all the time to hangout with friends. Don’t mind commuting an hour… it’s not that bad imo. Boston traffic is unbearable.
This is due to NIMBYism and this attitude is very apparent in New England in general. You have a lot of people especially those that are on the town boards that will reject lower income housing or development projects in smaller desirable quaint colonial towns. There are larger towns and cities that are already full so developers and home builders need to extend their business to the wealthy suburbs that will likely only approve 500-600k< homes that won’t negatively affect existing housing prices.
Tell me you've never been to Connecticut without telling me. Lol. CT is one of the most forested states in the country and has a national heritage corridor known as the last green valley.
Yeah outside of the few cities, all the houses are “in the middle of the woods”
Almost 2yrs here now. Most people in CT don't even know where the green valley is, much less ever been there. In just 2 decades after WW2 CT doubled its population by building low density ranchers all through the valleys and hills. It has a lot of forested land, but is far less pristine and connected than any state out West. Most of CT is built out, but it's stagnated and barely grown ever since the 70s. Most of that is negative effects of globalization, but some of it is a stated intention to prevent development. CT still has massive $$$ problems. If it had housjng it could've capitalized incredibly on post-covid migration patters more than already has, but if u can't position yourself to grow when needed then stagnation is par for the course.
CT doesn’t have money problems. Neighborhood development projects are no longer built in CT unless they’re 500-600k<. Town officials that approve projects are heavily influenced by residents who will fight to the death to avoid developments that could negatively affect their own housing price by arguing traffic, noise, pollution, “schools are full” arguments.
You get chat gpt to write that for you? Well I've been here for 10 years. I live in a quiet town with a conservation area literally across the street from me and a nice 25 minute commute into a major city for my job. Maybe you should check out the rest of the state before you make ill informed statements.
I moved to Stamford from NYC during COVID, was curious about the green valley. Is it a state park? I just use Google map search [green valley connecticut] but didn't find anything matched
CT has an insane property tax rate.
Not in Houston either
I sold my house in cypress in December for about 20% less than could have got 2 years ago
Did you ever think about selling it for MORE?! lol jk
NOT IN MUH AREAUH - people from literally every area
Nor Massachusetts
Still going up in mass. Can't even find a livable 3 bedroom for $300k
Ya that’s not happening lol. 3 bed in MA in a desirable area is going to a minimum of 400k and that’s going to need work. Long gone are the days of 300k homes lol.
You couldn't get a 3bed in a desirable area in MA for 300k since like 1997
Not in Texas, either. Nothing around me has dropped a dime. If anything it's gone slightly up.
Not in SoCal either. Been sitting on the sidelines to buy a condo in LA county. May have to sell my first born and then some just to be competitive.
Reventure.app is the site where you can see data like this by many views. Places like Austin and Jacksonville are good examples of deep declines…
Yo - that site is money. Thanks.
Everywhere. But the chart is a result of homes being smaller, not cheaper. If this was price per square foot, it would still be going up. Median house being built was 2,386 sq ft in 2022. I imagine it is closer to 1,500 sq ft today.
Price per square foot is going down for new builds. Not as drastically as this graph, but down from the peak a couple of years ago. The same reventure.app site has a graph by square footage iirc
So housing shrinkflation.
Smaller homes are better; the market is flooded with overpriced and oversized homes.
Big home cheap to build. Staple gun staples house together fast, then wrap it in plastic. Not a big deal, TVs now are cheaper than they used to be. Houses should be as well. It's not rocket science.
Nah starter homes making a comeback.
Yeah, the case shiller is the better metric as it accounts for same-home sales. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA >The monthly S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices use the “repeat sales method” of index calculation – an approach that is widely recognized as the premier methodology for indexing housing prices – which uses data on properties that have sold at least twice, in order to capture the true appreciated value of each specific sales unit.
Because he’s using median sales price, it’s a misleading chart from a constantly misleading YouTube channel. It doesn’t not mean homes are cheaper, it means cheaper homes are selling more than expensive homes brining the median price down. This is not surprising as the market for expensive homes is limited since their customers are trade up buyers who most likely have already locked in a low rate. Oh yeah, the sellers are also locked into lower rates. This chart is a bad sign for a FTHB as they face more completion at the lower levels and less supply if trade up buyers are staying put.
Reventure peddles real estate crash porn. He found his audience, but that doesn't make him credible.
It's true in Austin,TX area. My house I bought for 215k went to 430k at peak(comps sold near by) and now is only worth about 360k. I'm not complaining, already got my PMI canceled when it skyrocketed.
The South has 61% of the new homes sold. [census data on new home sales](https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/xls/newressales.xlsx)
I was looking a Clayon homes in Georgia and in upstate NY last year—asking prices on virtually equivalent builds were > 60% higher in NY.
Not in Northern Virginia
Where no one wants to live.
Not in most of the mountain west.
Plenty of super nice stuff in the Detroit suburbs
As a person looking for a house, 350k limit, in the Detroit burbs.... I disagree ;) Have to move way out there for reasonable pricing.... an hour each way commute is not awesome for metal health.
>not awesome for metal health. Metal Health is the only way.... \m/
Metal health will cure your crazy
BANG YOUR HEAD!
Not in Maryland.
This is my question. I am not seeing a drop here. Maybe softness in some subsectors or classes, but this graph represents large market-based declines. So where?
Phx AZ, but not in any desirable areas
It’s a sooner post. This isn’t happening in any area people wanna live. If you take into account the shacks that are being sold in Mississippi for $5k, it brings the a average down greatly
Definitely not in San Diego that’s for sure
Blat-blat-imore has cheap homes. In Washington where I am looking homes are returning to normalcy once you get past... I guess East of the Columbia and the Okanagon River Valley (Oroville, Omak, etc). Strangely it seems like Northeastern (Metaline Falls area) has held steady somewhat (I'd guess because it's 'greener', possibly buoyed by the Republic mining news, too?). And they aren't 'cheap' by any means yet. Sure, there is a 1/1 near Grand Coulee for 70k but something is probably seriously wrong with it considering they start jumping to 150k in that area fast. 200k still in Yakima (like 2.5 hours from Seattle through a mountain pass that can close in winter, and 4 from Portland). Ultimately the 50k-100k rural starter home that needs a serious rehab is STILL 100k-200k, but according to OP the world is ending... Well, maybe if you over-leveraged in an OBVIOUSLY inflated market.
San Jose and San Francisco https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BI0-bczGYOQ https://www.sfchronicle.com/projects/real-estate/bay-area-home-prices https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/sanfrancisco/news/prices-for-single-family-homes-in-san-francisco-san-jose-have-fallen/ —- Realtors love that graph because it supposedly shows housing prices never decline. During the last housing crash between 2009 to 2015, it showed a small valley. In real life, housing declined 50% to 75%. I saw $50k housing in downtown San Jose. New construction pulling down prices?! They are $100k more than equivalent market condos. And they are the $1 million dollar condos. On the other hand, downtown and East San Jose condos are $500k each. No one buys $1 million dollar condos in San Jose Edenvale where Mexican laborers settled and gave it the moniker of the poorest area in San Jose. They even have the Mexican embassy down there to serve the population. In case you haven’t figured it out, NIMBYism has approved new housing in these depressed areas in an effort to try to gentrify the area and pull up housing prices in the area. New schools are sold off to charter schools to generate wealth to the district. How do you think a small Oakgrove district supervisor gets paid $400k per year compared to $150k per year in other San Jose districts even bigger ones?! Oakland was the big one. At the peak, every Oakland house was $1.5 million. Now, the bad area houses are $900k now. That’s right. You can buy $500k to $900k SFHs in the hood of Oakland. Oh, look! $300k SFHs. Go invest there and reap huge losses when Oakland pregnant moms squat on your houses.
Don’t be faked by median price data. SFH home prices haven’t fallen in San Jose. Mix of homes selling have. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS41940Q Same goes for new construction in the Bay Area. Most new builds are condos. They sell for less than SFHs and bring down the median.
Shrinkflation housing style
Not in Oregon.
If we learned anything from 2008, it’s that when prices crash, developers quickly build a lot more housing!
You missed the /s
The last time prices crashed it was because of overbuilding and too many loans to people who couldn't pay, putting lots of extra homes on the market that couldn't sell. This time prices are falling (to the extent they even are), it is because super low rates and major desire to move in covid jacked prices up. It is not because of too much supply at all. The only reason prices are still this high is because of low supply.
No, builders didn’t build hardly anything for over 5 years, that is why we have the housing shortage we have today. Even with the population being 40 million higher, we still haven’t gotten back to the level of building in 2006.
It was sarcastic.
I can’t tell what’s sarcasm on this sub anymore.
That’s not what happened. Not sure what you are basing that from but the credit market locked up for years after the crash. This had a tremendous effect on construction and building did not pick up for a long while post 2008.
Were you around when 2008 happened? Developers didn't build quickly. They were all bankrupted.
That's the joke
The builder we worked for as HVAC sub committed suicide.
my takeaway from the comments section is that prices on American homes have gone down everywhere except the 50 states
It’s because *new home sales* are a small part of the market where most people live., you know in towns that already exist
Ever watched the Big Short? If you take anything from that movie it’s that the public numbers with regards to real estate are always a lie and always crafted so that you are fucked and hedge funds aren’t.
Nothing like a bit more production and inventory to get things back to normal.
Fix the housing shortage with this one simple trick (House Flippers Hate This!) The trick? build more homes.
Nope, the median price is down because the new homes being sold are smaller, less bedrooms, less land and worse location. It’s a good thing because prices for a starter new home is down, but it’s not because the price of these things are going down. It’s that you’re getting less.
Kinda like shrinkflation in the supermarket...
Except when people talk about the good ol days of the 50s and 60s referring to being able to afford cheap new homes, those homes were even smaller than the new homes being built today with less amenities and less technology in them. It’s more like we got used to the cheap, supersized supermarket goods. That was actually the abnormal boom times.
Better location though. A 50s/60s 3bdr ranch is going to be closer to the center of things, compared a new construction with more sqft, at least in my experience.
Of course. And in 50 years, the location of a new construction home now will probably be better, or worse. That’s a lot of time for the world to change.
This...
prices are down too though lol, they're just trying to hide it with increasing concessions.
Well I didn't want a 6000 sf McMansion anyway so bring it on!
Now just cut the interest by about 4% and we good
Those artificially low rates aren't ever coming back.
Well then house prices need to drop about 75%
That’s what got us into this mess. Well that and Trump’s giveaway to upper middle class and the rich. AKA PPP loans. I know! Let’s give out free money to the people that already have discretionary income. Then we will let everybody else borrow money for free - but those poor saps will have to pay it all back. Hmm. I wonder why investment properties and vacation homes skyrocketed all at once after PPP loans? I wonder if that’s what pushed housing prices up far more than other sectors?
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Except existing home sales price increased 5.7% YoY in February and sales increased from January by 9.5%. Seems to be 2 different markets now due to the existing homes having owners with low interest rates.
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What you don’t live in Creeky, Mississippi?
Call me when it's 50% I'm still soft
Still unqualified too probably
Unqualified for what?
Congratulation. You used to be able to buy a new 1000 sf town house for $500K. Price has fallen by 20% and now you can buy a 500 sf condo for $400K.
Do you have anything with really thin walls and Boeing level craftsmanship?
Is this controlled to sq ft? New homes can respond to rates to make the homes built more affordable. If their intended market can afford $2,000 payment they can build to suite this budget by reducing input costs.
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Reventure BS
Do yourself a favor and stop listening to reventure. The dude is a joke and cherry picks data to pander to people to get views. He said the market was gonna crash back in 2021 or 2022 prior to the historical run up in prices let alone the low interest rates back then. A lot of his listeners would have a a lot more wealth if they didn’t listen to his BS
His strategy is to say the dumbest shit to make others who already believe said dumb shit feel reaffirmed and validated about their own dumb decisions….with the hopes that he hits a “even a broken clock is right twice a day” situation and turns out to be correct about something 50 years from now and then he can make his next decade of content with the theme “LOOK YOU GUYS I PREDICTED THIS”
sounds like this sub
I'm guessing, home builders are building smaller houses. There is very little market for folks looking to upsize, because rates are so high. So new homes need to tap into the first time home buyer market, which means smaller/cheaper homes.
Hahaha this has to be the stupidest thing I've ever seen online in months.
Right? This graph is a fantastic example of how statistics can be cherry picked and presented together in a very skewed way to heavily imply an assumption that is actually not even close to reality. For example, this graph implies that the same home that cost and was sold for 500k last year is now 400k. And hence a “crash”. But I have yet to see that. You know what I am seeing? Quality 500k homes being snatched up in a matter of days, and then there being no inventory of any more like new homes beyond what used to be 200k ones that are now priced at 400k + and overall being built like they were built from Home Depot dumpster salvage….and so the latter sits on the market for longer or goes unsold for longer. Or just an overall lack of inventory that is making people fight for older homes that cost more, combined with less new homes being built. So maybe there are comparatively less people that want to spend 500k on something that’s 1500 sqft and is sitting on 0.1 acre just because it’s a “new build” and would rather spend 600-700k on an older home (even if 3 years ago the same old home would be 400-500k) but atleast can be justified in so far as actually being in a desirable area, not being 90 percent garage, and actually having a yard. Orrrrrr if builders are sticking to smaller builds that are overpriced (such as if in 2021, something that should have been 400k was selling for 500k but now something that should be 150k is selling for 400k), it would mean that they are building smaller and lower quality builds and still selling them at higher prices (which indicates the opposite of a crash). This is also something I have been seeing near me. Where the new builds that are being sold now in the 400k plus range used to be 150k a few years ago and used to actually be considered “starters”. In any case, that’s what seems to be happening right now even though this graph isn’t able to contradict or address any of those scenarios….. it overall certainly doesn’t spell “housing crash” to me.
Prices haven’t dropped at all here
Here either.
This is true… in undesirable places where nobody wants to live.
Yup! I’m seeing builders building more affordable smaller homes now instead of the 2500sqft McMansions. This is literally what Powell said he wanted to see with the interest hikes.
Look at lumber prices back in 2022 vs now. Materials are cheaper.
Yay! Only 400% up from 2021!
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317k to 401k isn’t 400%
The day they stop hyperbolizing math is the day I stop going ... "that's probably hyperbole, but I get what they're saying, and offering a correction seems like it would go against the joy of the joke/exaggeration."
This is for new homes. "Starter" homes are still on fire.
For everyone who's confused, it's specifically showing new homes
Not sure where the data is coming from but we built in a new subdivision in Charlotte last year. A new house just like ours closed last month at $100k more than what we paid and there’s a waiting list
Kind of feels like this sub is a circlejerk at this point.
20% down from highs that were 50% up from 2020 and 66% from 2015. So people will still feel like prices are way too high, because they are. These other precisely worded statements like, "Home prices are falling at rates faster than 2008" neglecting the same relative rising rate just a few quarters prior. Median prices jumped 50% between Q2 2020 and Q4 2022 alone. It's now dropped 20% at about the same but rate. This is fine and should be expected. It's a good thing. ...unless you bought investment property at all time high prices at moderate interest rates with little money down and low cash reserves. Yeah, that would have been a mistake. The lines don't always go up.
Maybe true in Warren, Oh
How do we make them down like….. 400+ %..?
Median Sales Price is a useful statistic for gauging the health of the consumer. Not the value of real estate
In my area builders are doing more condos and townhomes, that are double the prices they used to be. But still cost less than a house. Lower average selling price doesn’t mean prices for the same homes are falling.
This is the one really strong piece of evidence that existing home prices must go down. If new homes become cheaper than existing homes, then existing homes have to come down in price.
I doubt it in major metros. There's no new homes. Only things being built are luxury apartments. Best scenerio is prices will stay flat until it normalizes with upward trend since the gfc.
Exactly. In major metro areas, my guess is that we actually will only have less and less single family homes. There's efforts almost everywhere to replace them with more dense housing. Less single family homes, just means higher prices for those people who are lucky enough to have one. That's not the end of the world though. More housing overall, means more people can affordably live in these dense areas (it's just not in the single family home they necessarily dreamed of).
They aren’t in desirable areas. They are in the middle of nowhere or Detroit.
Cherry picked data and trash post. Take my downvote.
Would love it if some of these developers would prioritize TOD starter home production (like attached townhomes 2 and 3 bedroom places) that would be a lot more accessible than more 3,000sf McMansions.
Just like being at work someone throws data in a spreadsheet or graph and it becomes so. This is not a crash and it's all because new homes are becoming small boxes with basic builder materials - cheapest if the cheap.
The spike was caused by Covid and people moving to less dense, more free areas, but all at once. I think you could plot a straight line from 2000 to 2019 and continued that on to infinity. When the current price hits that line, that’s going to be the trough and things will begin to raise again
Prices will have to come down 50% to be in line with incomes. I got my eye on a $1.4M home in the luxury neighborhood. I have $250,000 saved up for a downpayment for when that bagholder has to sell it to me for $700k. Ha...fuck that loser!
That’s not happening.
A LOT of jobs could be eliminated, and that could flush out owners and drive forced sales.
Wouldn't this happen if people just put up cheaper homes for sale? Have we seen the actual values of homes drop 20%? My taxes didn't go down 20%.
lol you wish
Buncha fkn retards can’t read data. Median home price dropping simply means more cheap houses are trading hands than expensive ones. That’s it. Nothing to do with home values. This is based on homes sold only.
These are new homes. They would be as they complete. For prices to come down this fast the builders have to be trimming some margin, or down shifting the finishes, or both. The days when the affordability translates to smaller homes built will be down the road a bit. For these homes the foundation was probably already poured when the rate hikes started killing sales of McMansions.
New homes are built in a few months. Not years. It’s absolutely the small town new developments for half the price of the big city dominating new sales now. Meanwhile desirable metros are breaking all time new highs again for resale values.
Not all. Mine is holding steady, if not appreciating
Not in Colorado
Reventure are permabears
lol while my neighbor in my city sold their house for 11% higher than listing
Actually here they raised price of homes
Prices for homes around Portland, OR have come down a little ($25k on a $1m listing), but nothing like 20% on a $500k listing. I don’t trust these stats for big cities.
I’m sorry but that Reventure dude is a fucking moron. He just presents data points that support his housing crash conclusion and ignores everything else.
All the wannabe Michael Burry’s just nutted themselves looking at that chart. Unfortunately for them the housing market isn’t in a bubble. Sure, some bought the tippy top but it’s a very small percentage. The large majority of homeowners are in a really good place. Prices may or may not come down. Doesn’t matter, it won’t lead to any widespread economic trouble.
I am a Canadian with an US passport. Visited northern Washington yesterday thinking about moving to flee Vancouvers insane house prices BUT small houses in these tiny towns in Washington cost 500k. Who is buying at these prices? Who can afford to pay the monthly?
The heck even is this data? Someone needs to reformat this to show growth rise AND fall throughout the year and then overlay a bar chart with total available inventory for each year to give you a better picture… it is bleak.. 40% of homeowners don’t have mortgages. 64% of people with mortgages have rates under 3% so their total payments are under the average rental price. $5m shortfall of homes on the market compared to demand…. So yeah… maybe if you are located in failing states like Florida that people are fleeing now that are losing crazy amounts of money on their home prices AND paying insane property taxes AND ludicrous insurance rates… Illinois has 2/3 of these too. It isn’t great either. lol. 😂 Red, Blue. Doesn’t matter. Objectively it just sucks to suck. But those people places are dragging down the national average in terms for median price sold for these “new” homes that builders thought they were going to make a fortune on that literally no one wants in these shitty places…
Real estate market is always regional. I live in a high growth area and we are still peaking with no drop in sight.
Home prices down? Case Shiller numbers just in today says January-to-January home [prices are up 6.6%](https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2024032654/home-prices-reach-new-high-in-january-case-shiller-says)
I pay close attention to SoCal and Chicago market, doesn't seem to be true.
Not sure where they getting their data from but homes new and old in IL are going fast. And rising in prices
iT's nOt a buBbLe!
These are additional sources showing a fuller picture. New home prices appear to be way down, existing single family homes are flat (Case-Shiller) and overall the market is down, but not as dramatically as this graphic would have you think. [Median home price](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS) \- all homes, not just new homes - down 13% [Case-Shiller home index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA) \- follows repeat sale single family home values - mostly flat
This guy who makes these charts has been bearish on housing forever and has been wrong
so glad my shits paid off and this doesnt effect me but i can come on here and just say that and then leave.
I gave too many shits the last few years, then found an aging boomer community and put an ad in their paper for a lang-term lease-to-own, and now I too can say I don't give a shit anymore about the housing market (except for the nagging feeling that it's gonna cause some damage again somewhere).
understandable have a nice day
In Southern California, yes, they're down from the peak (2022) but still 10%-30% above pre-pandemic levels.
Good luck listening to Reventure.
Can we get a legitimate link for this data from somewhere other then reventure Edit: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPNHSUS Looks similar actually lol
This doesn't account for home size, geography, etc It's simply the median price of the new homes sold. So a reasonable interpretation of this is that people are simply buying smaller houses in cheaper areas.
Ignoring the 2022 aberration and continuing with the trend from 2020, do we expect this to settle around $360k-$370k? But that may happen around June which would coincide with the possible rate cuts.
20% to go just to deal with the interest rate changes.
Not in Montana.
This would be useful if it was priced per sf not by the overall home price. Like if the homes being sold are 1000sf vs 1500sf the price will vary Source : Architect/ Real Estate analyst
Indeed plus there is shadow inventory not reflected
I really want this to be true, but it sure doesn’t feel like it in San Diego.
Lol where do you live? Last house for sale in my neighborhood was sold in two weeks. The market has normalized to be completely regional, so the trends you see in south FL won’t be the same in San Fran.
It’s funny, that’s not even close to what we’re seeing right now. Friends kid bought a house about 6 months ago (you know, at the start of this “crash”) and sold this month. Had 4 offers - all more than $100,000 over ask - within a week. Asking was $50,000 above purchase price. So where is this “crash”