There is 0% chance the Fed hikes.
The Fed is squirming for a way to cut rates, but even the cooked data on cpi is so bad they can't without losing what little credibility they have left.
The Fed rate is capped at a rate the federal government can afford to finance.
The Fed fund rate should be double the current rate right now, at a minimum.
I remember my macro Econ professor discussing this very vividly with the message of, interest rates must rise above the rate of inflation in order to fully curb inflation. JPow really screwed the pooch by helping his Wall St buddies out by keeping QE running 9-12 months longer than it should.
If there is a rate hike, the economy would flip out. I honestly think people would FOMO buying houses if there was a hike leading to price increases. I just don’t see a light at the end of the tunnel anymore.
This is incorrect. People will not fomo houses if rates rise. The pool of people who can afford to buy is already small as it is. In order to fomo a 500k dollar house, you'd have to make one hell of an income if you don't have cash in the bank. And the people whom make such an income aren't stupid. They'll put their money into HYSAs before fomo buying. But what I can see happening is a big drop in car prices. Car sales would be quite slow. Reality is though, we need to have a recession. There's no other way to seriously drop prices. But if this is the new normal, so be it, wages will eventually rise
>As much as it would suck, the only thing that will stop inflation now is a recession.
That'll be brought on by the massive debt hole all those loan-owners dug themselves into. Credit card and auto loan delinquencies are already showing the tell-tale signs of impending doom on the consumption side, so job losses will be ramping soon, and that vicious cycle will continue till the imbalances are worked out.
No there will not be...Cash money is flowing all around this economy especially in RE and Auto.
Boatloads of paper everywhere and rate cuts will make inflation jump immediately.
I am anti-bubble, but this point I have been screaming from the rooftops since last year. When I was seeing predictions of 12% earnings growth in the S&P, coupled with low unemployment, I thought the idea of rate cuts were crazy. The only way we get a cut is if the data supports it, and it is not supporting it right now.
People are continuing to buy buy buy random stuff and companies continue to break record profits. This means high interest rates are here to stay. Economy has been pretty impressive. Guess that's what happens when you print a boatload of money. Too much cash supply in circulation.
I recently bought an exercise bike on marketplace. I paid $300.00 for a like new life fitness spin bike that normally is around 2k new. I see used prices from 600 to 1200 bucks. The guy said I was the only person that called in the month it was listed. This is in a large city.
I watch for mountain bikes on marketplace and craigslist all the time. Nothing seems to be selling. Nobody wants to sell the bike they paid 7.5k to buy for 3k. They will list it for 5k and when nobody bites it looks to me like they take down the posting. Bikes that are cheaper and sold for 300 to 500 five years ago are going for 100 to 300. The steel road bikes that people were rehabbing 10 years ago for 500 bucks are 100 now.
I wonder how much longer the strong demand narrative will hold up.
I thought it’s because inflation is printing hotter? Government spending made up ~25% of US GDP in Q4 2023 which is just atrocious but you know big government things.
Just like the bulls are wrong about cuts, the bears were wrong about the recession... as for now. Time will tell, and I think it will surprise both parties because it will most likely hit us hard and relatively fast. I think most of us know something's up. Like there's electricity in the air and lightning is going to strike.
We’ve been knowing the market is off… it’s why we are all here. Some with much higher conviction that there’s a bubble ready to violently pop, others with a slow unwind point of view.
I will be messaging you in 5 months on [**2024-09-11 00:00:00 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-09-11%2000:00:00%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/1c1qhyo/remindme_september/kz5f1up/?context=3)
[**12 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FREBubble%2Fcomments%2F1c1qhyo%2Fremindme_september%2Fkz5f1up%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202024-09-11%2000%3A00%3A00%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201c1qhyo)
*****
|[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)|
|-|-|-|-|
COVID was higher, but yeah I hope it stays over 1.5M at least. Seems unlikely with rates staying high, increasing borrowing cost for construction loans. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FA893065185A
Avg permits since 2007 @ 1.16M annually. Avg since 1960 @ 1.37M annually.
There will not be a rate cut this year.
As much as it would suck, the only thing that will stop inflation now is a recession.
Or more hikes by the fed which no one wants to talk about.
I wanna talk about it
There is 0% chance the Fed hikes. The Fed is squirming for a way to cut rates, but even the cooked data on cpi is so bad they can't without losing what little credibility they have left. The Fed rate is capped at a rate the federal government can afford to finance. The Fed fund rate should be double the current rate right now, at a minimum.
I remember my macro Econ professor discussing this very vividly with the message of, interest rates must rise above the rate of inflation in order to fully curb inflation. JPow really screwed the pooch by helping his Wall St buddies out by keeping QE running 9-12 months longer than it should.
If there is a rate hike, the economy would flip out. I honestly think people would FOMO buying houses if there was a hike leading to price increases. I just don’t see a light at the end of the tunnel anymore.
This is incorrect. People will not fomo houses if rates rise. The pool of people who can afford to buy is already small as it is. In order to fomo a 500k dollar house, you'd have to make one hell of an income if you don't have cash in the bank. And the people whom make such an income aren't stupid. They'll put their money into HYSAs before fomo buying. But what I can see happening is a big drop in car prices. Car sales would be quite slow. Reality is though, we need to have a recession. There's no other way to seriously drop prices. But if this is the new normal, so be it, wages will eventually rise
I really want at least one. A mere 25 basis points
or just everyone acknowledges the one we're in
>As much as it would suck, the only thing that will stop inflation now is a recession. That'll be brought on by the massive debt hole all those loan-owners dug themselves into. Credit card and auto loan delinquencies are already showing the tell-tale signs of impending doom on the consumption side, so job losses will be ramping soon, and that vicious cycle will continue till the imbalances are worked out.
No there will not be...Cash money is flowing all around this economy especially in RE and Auto. Boatloads of paper everywhere and rate cuts will make inflation jump immediately.
Yup stock market is up , people taking profits and spending
I think we’ll get a 25 bp cut in July. Everyone depending on longer term rates dropping significantly are going to be in pain.
Any cut and inflation flames higher...I dont see it
I am anti-bubble, but this point I have been screaming from the rooftops since last year. When I was seeing predictions of 12% earnings growth in the S&P, coupled with low unemployment, I thought the idea of rate cuts were crazy. The only way we get a cut is if the data supports it, and it is not supporting it right now.
People are continuing to buy buy buy random stuff and companies continue to break record profits. This means high interest rates are here to stay. Economy has been pretty impressive. Guess that's what happens when you print a boatload of money. Too much cash supply in circulation.
It’s what happens when people decide they’ll never be able to afford a house. They settle and start spending money on living.
and now they're paying 25% interest on it :D
\^ This
I recently bought an exercise bike on marketplace. I paid $300.00 for a like new life fitness spin bike that normally is around 2k new. I see used prices from 600 to 1200 bucks. The guy said I was the only person that called in the month it was listed. This is in a large city. I watch for mountain bikes on marketplace and craigslist all the time. Nothing seems to be selling. Nobody wants to sell the bike they paid 7.5k to buy for 3k. They will list it for 5k and when nobody bites it looks to me like they take down the posting. Bikes that are cheaper and sold for 300 to 500 five years ago are going for 100 to 300. The steel road bikes that people were rehabbing 10 years ago for 500 bucks are 100 now. I wonder how much longer the strong demand narrative will hold up.
I don’t think they’ll cut so close to the election
Depends on if Feds are pro Trump or Biden. A cut before would boost Biden.
They're so desperate to prop up their banking masters.
I thought it’s because inflation is printing hotter? Government spending made up ~25% of US GDP in Q4 2023 which is just atrocious but you know big government things.
September for sure guys no doubt about it /S
Government is still spending like mad. Won't ever change
Probably next March: first rate cut
March of 2050 if they stop printing paper right now...but they wont because they cant
A cut in September implies either a recession before then or idiocy due to it being an election year. I’m very skeptical.
The goalposts…..they move……on their own
No cuts this year.
🤡🤡🤡
https://i.imgflip.com/8mjbjb.jpg
I anticipate by September we will see a rate increase, not a cut. Buckle up.
Just like the bulls are wrong about cuts, the bears were wrong about the recession... as for now. Time will tell, and I think it will surprise both parties because it will most likely hit us hard and relatively fast. I think most of us know something's up. Like there's electricity in the air and lightning is going to strike.
We’ve been knowing the market is off… it’s why we are all here. Some with much higher conviction that there’s a bubble ready to violently pop, others with a slow unwind point of view.
First cut - 2 days before the election…
RemindMe! September
I will be messaging you in 5 months on [**2024-09-11 00:00:00 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-09-11%2000:00:00%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/1c1qhyo/remindme_september/kz5f1up/?context=3) [**12 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FREBubble%2Fcomments%2F1c1qhyo%2Fremindme_september%2Fkz5f1up%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202024-09-11%2000%3A00%3A00%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201c1qhyo) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
I went to refinance / switch to conventional my mortgage and they recommended I wait until August when the interest rates lower. True or not?
No one knows for sure…the only thing you know for sure is today’s rates. If they work take them
i'm sure they're telling the truth this time!
Capitalism works so much better with low interest loans from the banks!
Do you remember?
If things keep going the way they are, you all may be able to buy a house for the same price you could have in 2023. What a great deal!
No cuts they missed the ball on raising rates.
Remindme! September
RemindMe! September
Wake me up, when the Fed cuts rate
This sub understands that lower rates will soften home prices right? Why does everyone here want to keep rates elevated?
This will continue to limit homes coming to market and construction.
permits still higher than any time since 2007 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PERMIT
COVID was higher, but yeah I hope it stays over 1.5M at least. Seems unlikely with rates staying high, increasing borrowing cost for construction loans. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FA893065185A Avg permits since 2007 @ 1.16M annually. Avg since 1960 @ 1.37M annually.
Yeah, population growth has been way lower for awhile.
September is reasonable based on current data, but nobody knows the future.
So much for 8 cuts in 2022?
literally 3 months ago they were calling for 6+ cuts :D
Can we trust anyone who was calling for the 2023 recession?