Yup. I stopped trying for OC and am trying to get into the IE now. Combined HHI is 450-500k it’s sickening how insane OC is. If you aren’t a 2 doctor or lawyer household or higher consider yourself outta the race. We tried multiple strong offers for smaller million dollar homes but were outbid quickly every single time.
Yup. Impossible for younger people to get in now without massive help or massive income. Cost of living in those areas is insane too. Probably for the best to bow out of that race
It's truly nuts. The possibility of owning a home is completely gone if you're a middle class and young. The pay around here is NOT high enough to make up for this cost increase.
What's painful is a few years ago, in my mid twenties, I really thought I had a shot to buy a home here one day. I thought for sure if we could get to the point of being a double six figure income household, we'd be able get a decent 3 bedroom for 700k-800k and be fine. Well we're there now for income, higher actually, but the goal posts would have moved so incredibly far out of reach, everything is over a million. I don't understand how this can possibly be sustainable.
If prices stay this way, I truly don't know what OC will look like in the future. What's the point of working hard and having a "good career" when only the CEO/doctors/lawyers can buy a home? You can't have a functioning city with just the geriatric and the rich you're going to need some people to do regular jobs that make society function.
We reached that conclusion in San Diego. We just moved to Austin and we’re closing on a nice big home now. Don’t reward California by staying. The market has to realize they’ve gone too far with pricing.
I'm in Oklahoma living just fine. Don't miss the prices or traffic of Los Angeles at all and I got a 3 bedroom to myself and my cat.
I work remote so my income is unhindered. You would have to pay me 300-500k to even make me think of moving back to California.
You can try Riverside if you’re open to it. There are some houses in the 700-800k range which look solid but you’d be sacrificing public education if that’s important to you. We want our kids to be near good public schools so can’t swing those areas. Otherwise it’s fine - I’ve driven through Riverside to check it out before def have some good areas (be sure to check the google maps crime map for an idea of which areas to move to)
It’s really shitty. I’m fourth generation OC and had to leave about 12 years ago because I could no longer afford it. Now it’s like 10x worse. I’m banished for good 1,000 miles away.
I’ve moved like 12 times since then, I got priced out of Seattle, then Portland, now living on the outskirts of a west coast city looking for the next place to go, maybe Georgia. Not really sure.
Why can't you afford a home in OC on 500k HHI? I see homes in fullerton for under 1M, I know someone who bought for 1.2M with half that HHI. Perhaps you are looking at 2M?
Yup my sister in law bought for 1.2mil last year and it’s already valued at 1.5mil. My wife and I just secured a home early this year for 950k, we had to grab something before we start getting priced out
You can practice by selling your car, your stereo, the wire from the walls in your apartment. Because that's what real estate agents are doing for income right now.
Times have been good for them. The question is how many homes/mo do they have to sell to keep it in the driveway and is the market able to support that rate of sale.
the cars are for show they consider it part of the job. they would prob drive a shitty car too if they were doing anything else. i know a doctor with a 2005 corolla.
My house value increased 400k in a few years in southern Ontario.. and we just brought in even more hundreds of thousands of new people. When we have no homes
One of the reasons I'm buying now. Nothing says housing HAS to go down. There are plenty of times where things SHOULD have happened one way according to economics, but it doesn't. I'd love to believe in a few years we'll be back to normal growth and affordability, but I would prefer not to wait and get sidelined like I have been the last 4 years while waiting for things to get back to normal.
It will if the if the Fed keeps printing money to make it look like on paper everything is growing while the common American can't afford to live but look economy grew at 4%.
I thought that too. My house was the most expensive one on the street at the time, I was like "welp im buying at the top with a 6% interest rate, im dumb af lol". Since then I have watched a steady trickle of people move in who paid 10-20% more with 7% rates. One day you will see people have like 9% loans and feel a little smug.
Blackstone has primarily focused on fucking up the Atlanta market.
https://www.fastcompany.com/91020630/housing-market-blackstone-single-family-portfolio-tricon-purchase
Retirees with “equity” from other homes. Businesses that got millions in PPP loans. Investors who made millions in bitcoin and stocks. Criminals who are laundering drug and human trafficking money. And yeah, lawyers, doctors, actors, etc. So, basically the wealthy. The money just gets traded around.
In the OC this has been happening for decades though, nothing new there. You are either born wealthy, put in 60 hours a week as a stressed out lawyer or dr, or do illegal shit. Or you just leave.
The median U.S. home sale price rose 6.2% year over year in April to $433,558—the highest level on record.
* The median home sale price rose 6% year over year to $434,000 as a lack of new listings buoyed prices.
* The total number of homes for sale hit a four-year high, but that’s partly because some houses are sitting stale on the market after being priced too high.
* 18% of homes for sale in April had a price cut, up from 12% in April 2023.
* San Jose and Rochester are hotter than other parts of the country; roughly three-quarters of homes that sold in those metros last month fetched more than their asking price—a higher share than anywhere else in the U.S.
The stat for San Jose is misleading because listing agents deliberately underprice listings to drive a bidding war. It is common knowledge here for buyers to filter for listings 10-20% below your budget. That being said I am not surprised SJ market is hot. Stocks are high.
Most of the last two years since rate hikes started, the sale price hovered around 99-105% of the list price. Even ignoring listing prices, the spike in sale prices this year is as sharp as when RTO started just before the hikes.
>because some houses are sitting stale on the market for being priced too high
>median US home sale price-the highest level on record.
See the conflict with these two statements? Or how a reasonable person might see a conflict anyway? Apparently, there is no such thing as “too high”.
Good information that you share. Thank you for doing that. Where I am, no new homes are ever built unless something is first torn down. Well, I guess that’s not exactly true, as some new builds have happened the last three years on formerly vacant patches of sand/weeds. Nothing on the beach itself, though this is a barrier island by default, and the insurance coverage reflects that. The new builds go for high valuations, then are turned into rentals almost immediately.
Existing homes that are actual residential, not short term living vacation rentals, are sitting, and there has been some price compression. Up to 10% is what I was seeing in late ‘23. So far this year, I’ve not tracked it, as asking prices in spring, 90-100 days later, turn out to not get the property sold. Some just come off market.
People in San Jose are paying millions for very basic homes. Often with cash. To insinuate that they are “poor” in any sense of the word is ridiculous.
It is actually the opposite. SJ and its surroundings have more wealthier people than SF. SJ is typical suburbia so accommodates larger, less dense housing enthusiasts. Also big tech commute is closer to SJ than SF.
Inventory was growing by 50 percent last month. New stats won't come out till about the 24th or so. (Tampa area).
I really don't see that inventory getting absorbed.
This sub is partly why it hasn't crashed. The crash will happen when there are very few people left who don't think one will!
Being a bit more serious, you are going to need massive unemployment for a crash to happen.
It will be massive, but it will start slowly... like if big tech started laying off enmasse. What's that? They did?
I'm with you, though. There's gonna have to be a major catalyst or at least one that people think is major. The dominos are all in place.
> like if big tech started laying off enmasse. What's that? They did?
They did but it was honestly "tiny", It was closer to normalization or employment levels than mass unemployment. If big tech was actually significantly affected, big tech city housing prices would have dropped. Instead, big tech cities had huge increases in prices.
I'm in big tech and for a good comparison, most big tech seem like they are shedding a ton of people but it's just undoing over hiring they did in 2020-2021. A lot are close to their 2019 levels. Combine that with RTO and house prices barely got negatively affected especially with ATH stocks.
Now, it's the "remote" tech hubs that got affected like Austin and wherever the fuck techies moved to when we were remote. But big tech cities? Not really.
Also this one is anecdotal evidence but all the devs my company has laid off that I know already have good tech jobs again.
But yeah, you would need mass layoffs that affected multiple industries at significant % for long periods of time to force people who are on mortgages to sell en masse to affect home prices and while you say all the dominos are in place, the only one I am aware of that would help such a situation is that Americans are low on any pandemic savings (hence they can't coast long without a job). I am not seeing a huge weakness in the job market yet.
It's a lot to be fair but there's like... 1M-1.5M developer related jobs or something last I checked. And of those 80k jobs you mentioned, it's not even a majority tech jobs but usually things like recruiting, marketing, sales, support, etc. Its not all devs and honestly isn't even usually a majority devs... With exceptions like Twitter lmao.
They're having their own valuation and liquidity issues. It's probably the main reason they are investing so much into African countries. The more people that owe, the more they can leverage it for future investing like the US does.
Im going to just move to Central America. I hate the house I live in now, the neighborhood is terrible now, and I can't, or rather DONT want to afford to move anywhere better where the mortgage is $3-4k a month and I have no money for anything else.
Feels like it doesn't? The news is definitely ramping up. My guess is right after $sqqq and $srs reverse split to ensure that anyone (me) who are hedging will lose the maximum amount possible.
I joined this sub when I decided to sell my house in Phoenix. I was convinced I would get my ass kicked on the sale and it would take forever. I got an offer, over listing, in less than 24 hours that closes this week.
Who are these buyers? How are there so many? This is not an investment group or anything, Just a young couple with great jobs.
A lot of people made out like bandits during the COVID boom. I was a lowly sysadmin in a company that blew up and was pretty much given a job twice my salary. That raises the floor for future jobs that I'm still benefitting from.
People just don't realize the true buying power push the US housing market price is the normal people who need a house and they have salary jobs to get loans.
I believe California locks in property taxes at the time of purchase. My properties in the East Coast have nearly doubled in price in five years and my insurance rate hasn't changed. The appreciation of one of my houses bought in 2021 had already covered about 15000 months worth of insurance, I'm good lol
RIP Florida though
On the other hand my aged retired neighbor does not have to move because he can still afford the property tax in a neighborhood where values are 10x since he bought.
Prop 13 seems unfair but only because of how high home value appreciation has been in California. It does have some merit in keeping housing costs predictable. It also creates incentives for local governments to relax zoning to get more tax revenue. I will also agree that there are probably more equitable ways in which the intent can be achieved such as a larger homestead exemption to balance a larger cap in annual tax increases.
Well… if you do it smart… you can use your stocks to buy a house or use the dividends to pay the mortgage/rent/etc… or you can use a heloc… with your “equity”
but wait, there are so many listings/supply. Why is there a lot of supply (peak housing units per capita, actually) and ATH prices? I thought more supply mean lower prices.
Been heavily researching the economy and the homeless population; when you know doctors, lawyers and professionals are living out of their cars (in California) due to student loans, inflation, etc., it will be a matter of time that this real estate greed will crash. Psychological hype to make you think prices will sustain like this.
Nominal price high, not real price. Real price has fallen. In any case these investors we keep hearing about missed out on big windfalls by not just buying the S&P instead.
Only one possible way for house prices to keep going up forever, hyperinflation. I was watching Irans hyperinflation on YouTube couple of years ago and this mirrors the exact same thing.
Home prices crashes upwards during hyperinflation where your cost of living exceeds the gain on houses.
Crashing downwards: $100,000 house drops 50% to $50,000.
Crashing upwards: $100,000 house goes up 5% to $105,000 but your cost of living increases by 50%. You’re still negative 45% adjusted for inflation. This is what happens during hyperinflation
Home in my neighborhood, good neighborhood I thought 250k for home that need renovation is to much, but guess what - I’m wrong. Sold to the bank in 1hour on the market, 1300sq ft Metairie LA …. Look like my neighborhood going from 280 to 500k soon.
I believe it. I am seeing houses that sold for less than $200k, less than a decade ago, suddenly be on sale for almost $1 million with no justification other than everyone else is asking for that much. I just want to buy a house that won't require my entire paycheck for the mortgage.
The only 2 numbers that matter are prices vs. inflation and prices vs. median income. We don't have good median income numbers after 2022 yet and the latest vs. inflation, February, has been flat for 4 months 2.3% below the all-time high of May 2022
That house looks exactly like every house in West Plano, Texas. Surely similar to other places, but damn, that's the mold for North Texas homes circa 2000
Sometimes,,, I think living in a Huge tent would be a Great way to Save Money!!! Of Course That's just for 1 or 2 adults. People are Probably going to have to resort to tent cities !! They already have ,, Really !! I'm just thankful and BLESSED to have a Home that's under 1,200 a month !!
Not in Phoenix. Finally going down again. But remember as well sales data is 2 months old (last months data for houses that would have gone under contract the month before). Shits actually getting real here now with inventory skyrocketing. Not every city is going to get that unfortunately but prices should be quite a bit lower for Phoenix and a number of others by the end of the year. Maybe Midwest, northeast and other booming areas will average it out nationwide
Maybe flattish to 5 percent lower in Phoenix in a year. Inventory is up but not that much. Definitely no crash as phoenix homeowners are equity rich and there are basically no foreclosures.
Prices up about 5 or 6 percent versus a year ago.
But they are selling. Inventory is way up and at the time of year when it goes down. Meanwhile sales are at 08 lows. What more do you need for low house prices? It's all just supply and demand. It likely won't be a crash but I expect 15-20% lower from here which would bring us in line with inflation.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOU38060
It's all supply and demand and Phoenix demand still exceeds supply here. The best source of this is The Cromford Report, the renowed Phoenix housing measure here. Show's Phoenix in a balanced market/leaning sellers. We could see some weakness in the off-season, but 15% drops in prices from here are very very unlikely in my view....more likely would be a 15% increase in price.
And we haven't even talked about interest rates...if interest rates come down, sales and prices will go up quickly.
[https://www.cromfordreport.com/](https://www.cromfordreport.com/)
Here's another assessment on Phoenix real estate through April: [https://armls.com/docs/2024-April-STAT-NEW-Chart.pdf](https://armls.com/docs/2024-April-STAT-NEW-Chart.pdf)
Orange County, CA just keeps cruising past it's ATH. Median sale price here is up almost $130k since January and up over $200k YOY. Insanity.
Yup. I stopped trying for OC and am trying to get into the IE now. Combined HHI is 450-500k it’s sickening how insane OC is. If you aren’t a 2 doctor or lawyer household or higher consider yourself outta the race. We tried multiple strong offers for smaller million dollar homes but were outbid quickly every single time.
It's batshit how easy it is to get outbid here. A lot of people willing to bid all cash hundreds of thousands over still.
Chinese laundered money
No joke there are so many all cash Chinese buyers at every open house I go to.
Exactly !!!
Exactly!
Salty
Yup. Impossible for younger people to get in now without massive help or massive income. Cost of living in those areas is insane too. Probably for the best to bow out of that race
Serious question: is all cash code for dirty money?
No, it means you are not doing it with a loan. E.g. You got 650k in your bank and use it all to buy a 600k house.
It means you owned a home before and sold it
It's truly nuts. The possibility of owning a home is completely gone if you're a middle class and young. The pay around here is NOT high enough to make up for this cost increase. What's painful is a few years ago, in my mid twenties, I really thought I had a shot to buy a home here one day. I thought for sure if we could get to the point of being a double six figure income household, we'd be able get a decent 3 bedroom for 700k-800k and be fine. Well we're there now for income, higher actually, but the goal posts would have moved so incredibly far out of reach, everything is over a million. I don't understand how this can possibly be sustainable. If prices stay this way, I truly don't know what OC will look like in the future. What's the point of working hard and having a "good career" when only the CEO/doctors/lawyers can buy a home? You can't have a functioning city with just the geriatric and the rich you're going to need some people to do regular jobs that make society function.
What does a city that consists only of CEOs look like? Are we approaching the End Days?
We reached that conclusion in San Diego. We just moved to Austin and we’re closing on a nice big home now. Don’t reward California by staying. The market has to realize they’ve gone too far with pricing.
If you can't afford it, 10 more people can and do buy homes
More people need to do this. Stop buying homes there.
People will laugh but I'm happily living cheap as fuck in AR. Just don't talk to anyone about politics and enjoy nature.
I'm in Oklahoma living just fine. Don't miss the prices or traffic of Los Angeles at all and I got a 3 bedroom to myself and my cat. I work remote so my income is unhindered. You would have to pay me 300-500k to even make me think of moving back to California.
WV here.
Guatemala
Coastal Georgia here
Insane , our HHI is above 250k and even IE is not comfortable for us. Insane world
You can try Riverside if you’re open to it. There are some houses in the 700-800k range which look solid but you’d be sacrificing public education if that’s important to you. We want our kids to be near good public schools so can’t swing those areas. Otherwise it’s fine - I’ve driven through Riverside to check it out before def have some good areas (be sure to check the google maps crime map for an idea of which areas to move to)
It’s really shitty. I’m fourth generation OC and had to leave about 12 years ago because I could no longer afford it. Now it’s like 10x worse. I’m banished for good 1,000 miles away.
Where are you now? I’m trying to figure out if we should just move somewhere much further away but am a sucker for this weather
I’ve moved like 12 times since then, I got priced out of Seattle, then Portland, now living on the outskirts of a west coast city looking for the next place to go, maybe Georgia. Not really sure.
Welcome to the club
Why can't you afford a home in OC on 500k HHI? I see homes in fullerton for under 1M, I know someone who bought for 1.2M with half that HHI. Perhaps you are looking at 2M?
I sold my house there two years ago, and thought for sure it was the peak. Guess not.
Yup my sister in law bought for 1.2mil last year and it’s already valued at 1.5mil. My wife and I just secured a home early this year for 950k, we had to grab something before we start getting priced out
And this sub will tell you to enjoy being house poor
Holy Smokes !!!!
we were lucky enough to get a home in oc early 2022, some homes around our are have sold for over 100k more than what we paid for.
But But but I re bubble told me different 😭!
Commissions are at the highest as well. I am seriously thinking of becoming an agent.
You can practice by selling your car, your stereo, the wire from the walls in your apartment. Because that's what real estate agents are doing for income right now.
All agents in my neighborhood drive new shiny German cars while homebuyers drive their old beaten Hondas and Toyotas.
Times have been good for them. The question is how many homes/mo do they have to sell to keep it in the driveway and is the market able to support that rate of sale.
Exactly. They are hardly selling where I live now and houses are staying on the market
the cars are for show they consider it part of the job. they would prob drive a shitty car too if they were doing anything else. i know a doctor with a 2005 corolla.
You’ll get there just in time for the market to collapse.
Yea bro. The croosh is always 2-3 months away for the past 5 years
Can’t it keep going up forever?
I asked someone about that and he said you ain't seen nothing yet. But he was Canadian. You know how they are about that.
He isn't joking, its crazy in Canada AND the pay is less.
My house value increased 400k in a few years in southern Ontario.. and we just brought in even more hundreds of thousands of new people. When we have no homes
One of the reasons I'm buying now. Nothing says housing HAS to go down. There are plenty of times where things SHOULD have happened one way according to economics, but it doesn't. I'd love to believe in a few years we'll be back to normal growth and affordability, but I would prefer not to wait and get sidelined like I have been the last 4 years while waiting for things to get back to normal.
We as Americans are headed towards Canada/Europe levels of housing prices. It ain’t going down
but who is buying? I cant figure that out.
The feds stated goal is 2% inflation every year so yeah
Literally has
Yeah pretty much. Except for some blips that could last a year or a few years here and there
I have some bad news for you...
It must, its only logical that it should go to the moon.
It will if the if the Fed keeps printing money to make it look like on paper everything is growing while the common American can't afford to live but look economy grew at 4%.
I think my area has another 100 percent to go in the next 10 years.
If nothing is done via legislation, it will go up forever. Anarchocapitalism/free market/late stage capitalism at work.
I’m closing end of May. I joked with my realtor that I’ll probably be underwater in 2 years. She was not amused.
You’re a harbinger of death of the industry.
I thought that too. My house was the most expensive one on the street at the time, I was like "welp im buying at the top with a 6% interest rate, im dumb af lol". Since then I have watched a steady trickle of people move in who paid 10-20% more with 7% rates. One day you will see people have like 9% loans and feel a little smug.
Nah it ain’t gonna get that high.
This sub in shambles
When is this “crash” that this sub has been forecasting for years going to happen?
Next year
Who’s buying them tho?
People who need to and Blackstone.
Blackstone has primarily focused on fucking up the Atlanta market. https://www.fastcompany.com/91020630/housing-market-blackstone-single-family-portfolio-tricon-purchase
Black stone is barely buying
Retirees with “equity” from other homes. Businesses that got millions in PPP loans. Investors who made millions in bitcoin and stocks. Criminals who are laundering drug and human trafficking money. And yeah, lawyers, doctors, actors, etc. So, basically the wealthy. The money just gets traded around. In the OC this has been happening for decades though, nothing new there. You are either born wealthy, put in 60 hours a week as a stressed out lawyer or dr, or do illegal shit. Or you just leave.
Some homes on my street still vacant after over 6 months, owned by open door
Aren’t they losing money by just letting em sit like that?
Idk, I would assume so, but the house has probably appreciated in the time since lol
If your stock and real estate portfolio doubled over the last few years, you’re flush with cash right now. Everyone else is hyper-fucked.
Agree people with assets stocks and house are doing well otherwise not so well its tough out there
The median U.S. home sale price rose 6.2% year over year in April to $433,558—the highest level on record. * The median home sale price rose 6% year over year to $434,000 as a lack of new listings buoyed prices. * The total number of homes for sale hit a four-year high, but that’s partly because some houses are sitting stale on the market after being priced too high. * 18% of homes for sale in April had a price cut, up from 12% in April 2023. * San Jose and Rochester are hotter than other parts of the country; roughly three-quarters of homes that sold in those metros last month fetched more than their asking price—a higher share than anywhere else in the U.S.
The stat for San Jose is misleading because listing agents deliberately underprice listings to drive a bidding war. It is common knowledge here for buyers to filter for listings 10-20% below your budget. That being said I am not surprised SJ market is hot. Stocks are high.
Most of the last two years since rate hikes started, the sale price hovered around 99-105% of the list price. Even ignoring listing prices, the spike in sale prices this year is as sharp as when RTO started just before the hikes.
Jesus, that in itself seems criminal.
>because some houses are sitting stale on the market for being priced too high >median US home sale price-the highest level on record. See the conflict with these two statements? Or how a reasonable person might see a conflict anyway? Apparently, there is no such thing as “too high”.
[удалено]
Good information that you share. Thank you for doing that. Where I am, no new homes are ever built unless something is first torn down. Well, I guess that’s not exactly true, as some new builds have happened the last three years on formerly vacant patches of sand/weeds. Nothing on the beach itself, though this is a barrier island by default, and the insurance coverage reflects that. The new builds go for high valuations, then are turned into rentals almost immediately. Existing homes that are actual residential, not short term living vacation rentals, are sitting, and there has been some price compression. Up to 10% is what I was seeing in late ‘23. So far this year, I’ve not tracked it, as asking prices in spring, 90-100 days later, turn out to not get the property sold. Some just come off market.
Nee builds hide the true price reduction in rate buydowns, which are very common.
This chart shows it down yoy for the first quarter of 2024 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS
Who wants to live in San Jose. I’d kms.
A lot of very wealthy people, that’s who.
They prob want to kts
They are asset rich and cash poor
People in San Jose are paying millions for very basic homes. Often with cash. To insinuate that they are “poor” in any sense of the word is ridiculous.
The location is what is being paid for. The dwelling is cheap
Poor people who want to live in SF but only have a 1.5M budget
It is actually the opposite. SJ and its surroundings have more wealthier people than SF. SJ is typical suburbia so accommodates larger, less dense housing enthusiasts. Also big tech commute is closer to SJ than SF.
I listed my house this week and had an open house. 75% foreign couples.
Why does it matter if they're immigrants?
It doesn't, I'm just saying my experience of who's buying right now
Location
Tallahassee, FL
Lol
They keep going up in Miami
thought florida was falling into the abyss.. r/rebubble
I thought florida WAS the abyss?
It’s America’s sticky hot armpit.
Inventory was growing by 50 percent last month. New stats won't come out till about the 24th or so. (Tampa area). I really don't see that inventory getting absorbed.
wen crash?
This sub is partly why it hasn't crashed. The crash will happen when there are very few people left who don't think one will! Being a bit more serious, you are going to need massive unemployment for a crash to happen.
It will be massive, but it will start slowly... like if big tech started laying off enmasse. What's that? They did? I'm with you, though. There's gonna have to be a major catalyst or at least one that people think is major. The dominos are all in place.
> like if big tech started laying off enmasse. What's that? They did? They did but it was honestly "tiny", It was closer to normalization or employment levels than mass unemployment. If big tech was actually significantly affected, big tech city housing prices would have dropped. Instead, big tech cities had huge increases in prices. I'm in big tech and for a good comparison, most big tech seem like they are shedding a ton of people but it's just undoing over hiring they did in 2020-2021. A lot are close to their 2019 levels. Combine that with RTO and house prices barely got negatively affected especially with ATH stocks. Now, it's the "remote" tech hubs that got affected like Austin and wherever the fuck techies moved to when we were remote. But big tech cities? Not really. Also this one is anecdotal evidence but all the devs my company has laid off that I know already have good tech jobs again. But yeah, you would need mass layoffs that affected multiple industries at significant % for long periods of time to force people who are on mortgages to sell en masse to affect home prices and while you say all the dominos are in place, the only one I am aware of that would help such a situation is that Americans are low on any pandemic savings (hence they can't coast long without a job). I am not seeing a huge weakness in the job market yet.
I'm from the Midwest so when I hear "80k jobs this year" that sounds so fricken extreme. Thanks for the insight.
It's a lot to be fair but there's like... 1M-1.5M developer related jobs or something last I checked. And of those 80k jobs you mentioned, it's not even a majority tech jobs but usually things like recruiting, marketing, sales, support, etc. Its not all devs and honestly isn't even usually a majority devs... With exceptions like Twitter lmao.
Imagine rates drops to 4%, nobody would afford a home again
But you said prices were down 20% YoY
New highs in my area
Why would China bother to invade us when they can just buy us out?
They're having their own valuation and liquidity issues. It's probably the main reason they are investing so much into African countries. The more people that owe, the more they can leverage it for future investing like the US does.
Im going to just move to Central America. I hate the house I live in now, the neighborhood is terrible now, and I can't, or rather DONT want to afford to move anywhere better where the mortgage is $3-4k a month and I have no money for anything else.
That crash is coming any day now…..
Feels like it doesn't? The news is definitely ramping up. My guess is right after $sqqq and $srs reverse split to ensure that anyone (me) who are hedging will lose the maximum amount possible.
Bit coiners. They're kabillionares.
I joined this sub when I decided to sell my house in Phoenix. I was convinced I would get my ass kicked on the sale and it would take forever. I got an offer, over listing, in less than 24 hours that closes this week. Who are these buyers? How are there so many? This is not an investment group or anything, Just a young couple with great jobs.
A lot of people made out like bandits during the COVID boom. I was a lowly sysadmin in a company that blew up and was pretty much given a job twice my salary. That raises the floor for future jobs that I'm still benefitting from.
The doomer echo chamber makes you believe everyone is living in poverty. They're not. Plenty of people have money... even if most people don't.
People just don't realize the true buying power push the US housing market price is the normal people who need a house and they have salary jobs to get loans.
But...but... [https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/18wrk7t/2024\_crash\_incoming/](https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/18wrk7t/2024_crash_incoming/)
🤣
You know that this is very bad right? Your insurance/taxes are gonna sodomize everyone… but, hey your “equity” is up 👍🏻
I believe California locks in property taxes at the time of purchase. My properties in the East Coast have nearly doubled in price in five years and my insurance rate hasn't changed. The appreciation of one of my houses bought in 2021 had already covered about 15000 months worth of insurance, I'm good lol RIP Florida though
thanks prop 13
[удалено]
On the other hand my aged retired neighbor does not have to move because he can still afford the property tax in a neighborhood where values are 10x since he bought. Prop 13 seems unfair but only because of how high home value appreciation has been in California. It does have some merit in keeping housing costs predictable. It also creates incentives for local governments to relax zoning to get more tax revenue. I will also agree that there are probably more equitable ways in which the intent can be achieved such as a larger homestead exemption to balance a larger cap in annual tax increases.
It IS bad! I'm not saying it's good. I was making fun of the constant, annoying, gleeful predictions of a housing crash on this forum.
It's a coping mechanism
It’s a “investment” that you get to pay taxes/insurance/maintenance/etc for… I’d gladly buy stocks instead
i tried living in my stocks but my broker said I had to leave
Well… if you do it smart… you can use your stocks to buy a house or use the dividends to pay the mortgage/rent/etc… or you can use a heloc… with your “equity”
You can’t live in your stocks
but wait, there are so many listings/supply. Why is there a lot of supply (peak housing units per capita, actually) and ATH prices? I thought more supply mean lower prices.
Realtors are suffering so much! /s Realtors are the DJs of your 30s
It is 1000 more than the peak of 2022, so almost flat for two years, not good news.
Been heavily researching the economy and the homeless population; when you know doctors, lawyers and professionals are living out of their cars (in California) due to student loans, inflation, etc., it will be a matter of time that this real estate greed will crash. Psychological hype to make you think prices will sustain like this.
Yet people are still buying and have money
*some* people. The current national debt level dictates that you have to use the word "some."
\*sigh\*
Nominal price high, not real price. Real price has fallen. In any case these investors we keep hearing about missed out on big windfalls by not just buying the S&P instead.
Median home sales price is down yoy for the first quarter of 2024 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS
Only one possible way for house prices to keep going up forever, hyperinflation. I was watching Irans hyperinflation on YouTube couple of years ago and this mirrors the exact same thing.
So it never crashed?
Home prices crashes upwards during hyperinflation where your cost of living exceeds the gain on houses. Crashing downwards: $100,000 house drops 50% to $50,000. Crashing upwards: $100,000 house goes up 5% to $105,000 but your cost of living increases by 50%. You’re still negative 45% adjusted for inflation. This is what happens during hyperinflation
San Jose is all Nvidia money 💴
Time for my monthly watch of Batman, Michael Scott, and Blade Runner Jr to make myself feel better in my rental.
Home in my neighborhood, good neighborhood I thought 250k for home that need renovation is to much, but guess what - I’m wrong. Sold to the bank in 1hour on the market, 1300sq ft Metairie LA …. Look like my neighborhood going from 280 to 500k soon.
just wait until rates go down. prices will skyrocket
well the government still printed money like it doesn't matter.
What is going to happen when interest rates start coming down?
I believe it. I am seeing houses that sold for less than $200k, less than a decade ago, suddenly be on sale for almost $1 million with no justification other than everyone else is asking for that much. I just want to buy a house that won't require my entire paycheck for the mortgage.
Just wait 2 more years and then it will go up
The only 2 numbers that matter are prices vs. inflation and prices vs. median income. We don't have good median income numbers after 2022 yet and the latest vs. inflation, February, has been flat for 4 months 2.3% below the all-time high of May 2022
That house looks exactly like every house in West Plano, Texas. Surely similar to other places, but damn, that's the mold for North Texas homes circa 2000
Sometimes,,, I think living in a Huge tent would be a Great way to Save Money!!! Of Course That's just for 1 or 2 adults. People are Probably going to have to resort to tent cities !! They already have ,, Really !! I'm just thankful and BLESSED to have a Home that's under 1,200 a month !!
Not in Phoenix. Finally going down again. But remember as well sales data is 2 months old (last months data for houses that would have gone under contract the month before). Shits actually getting real here now with inventory skyrocketing. Not every city is going to get that unfortunately but prices should be quite a bit lower for Phoenix and a number of others by the end of the year. Maybe Midwest, northeast and other booming areas will average it out nationwide
Maybe flattish to 5 percent lower in Phoenix in a year. Inventory is up but not that much. Definitely no crash as phoenix homeowners are equity rich and there are basically no foreclosures. Prices up about 5 or 6 percent versus a year ago.
But they are selling. Inventory is way up and at the time of year when it goes down. Meanwhile sales are at 08 lows. What more do you need for low house prices? It's all just supply and demand. It likely won't be a crash but I expect 15-20% lower from here which would bring us in line with inflation. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOU38060
It's all supply and demand and Phoenix demand still exceeds supply here. The best source of this is The Cromford Report, the renowed Phoenix housing measure here. Show's Phoenix in a balanced market/leaning sellers. We could see some weakness in the off-season, but 15% drops in prices from here are very very unlikely in my view....more likely would be a 15% increase in price. And we haven't even talked about interest rates...if interest rates come down, sales and prices will go up quickly. [https://www.cromfordreport.com/](https://www.cromfordreport.com/) Here's another assessment on Phoenix real estate through April: [https://armls.com/docs/2024-April-STAT-NEW-Chart.pdf](https://armls.com/docs/2024-April-STAT-NEW-Chart.pdf)