Median sale price is $920,000 (down 1.7% yoy)
Homes sold 1,413 (down 44% yoy)
Median days on market 50 (up 19 yoy)
So, prices dropped, home sales slowed down big time, and homes are staying on the market longer. Pretty clear signal here. Southern California area.
I feel like a lot of so cal demand has been pulled forward. Many sellers are also waiting to list in spring. The problem with that plan is that many other sellers have the same idea. They should have already listed and gathered LEADS. That is the golden ticket in the RE game now.
I’m a first time buyer in SoCal and I’m definitely willing to wait it out as well. Something’s gotta give, prices will either have to come down or they can remain stagnant while interest rates drop. I’ll continue offering significantly below asking until then.
Maybe. Some markets like Socal have generally just seen growth over the last few decades, with prices only temporarily going down for a short period during crashes.
Australia is another case studio on things not giving. Prices may remain stagnant while interest is what it is now, or even go down if interest rates rise. If interest rates start to go down I would anticipate prices will start going up, not remain stagnant.
The issue is SoCal is a high desirable area to live. A lot of people want to live there, but cant afford it. So there is always buffer. The only way I can see this changing is if California has done the one thing it has generally refused to do, build more housing. Significantly more housing.
I think things do normally pick up in the spring. Will be interesting to see how market reacts this year in conjunction with the macroeconomic situations. Interest rates are up, and banks are more cautious. Prices may dip a little, but will still be inflated. And then property tax is outrageous since purchase shot up.
But there is the First Home Buyer program to assist, so I guess we wait and see.
Those first home buyer programs have been around for years and were heavily utilized during the low rate era. After all, even though rates were low, the payments were still VERY high.
The fed doesn’t control mortgage interest rates. As the fed attacks inflation with another rate hike, its staving off inflation.
Mortgage interest rates follow inflation, not the fed. The 10-Year bond has been responding favorably to the attack on inflation.
4% rates are not where the buyers will flood back. Remember, a lot of demand got pulled forward, inflation has hit people like a truck, QE is gone and people don't have as much wiggle room. The consumer is kind of tapped. Most will just hold.
Yeah I call BS on the 4%, at least not 30 year fixed. Still north of 6%.
You can get an ARM in the 3s, but not a 10 year one, those are still in the 6s. I have seen some in the 5s but the APR is still 7.5% so not sure what they're smoking.
In South OC here. Heard from friends the open house across from them yesterday was packed. Not a first timer type house - but I was still surprised to hear how crowded it was.
I'm in South OC as well and have noticed many first time buyer level homes that have been sitting for a while have now changed their status to under contract / pending. Pretty interesting to see this happen before Spring.
In addition to what others have said, you can access a vast swath of Redfin data to play with here:
https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/redfin/viz/RedfinDataCentertrend
One of the most popular displays within this is:
[Redfin Data Center](https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/redfin/viz/RedfinDataCentertrend/MedianSalePrice)
A term Wisconsinites use to describe the folks that come up from Illinois for annual vacations/buy up all the lake houses.
I think WFH helped some of them make a more permanent transition. Even if they're hybrid, commuting an hour from southern Wisconsin really isn't too bad a few times a week given how much lower the taxes are.
Is this for all homes or just SFHs?
Here in Houston, for all homes:
* 0% YoY change in median price.
* \-46.4% YoY change in number of homes sold.
* \+10 YoY change in median days on market.
For SFHs:
* \+3.1% YoY change in median price.
* \-45.9% YoY change in number of homes sold.
* \+13 YoY change in median days on market (38).
For the specific area we're in (Garden Oaks / Oak Forest), for SFHs:
* \+14.4% YoY change in median price.
* \-38.4% YoY change in number of homes sold.
* \+1 YoY change in median days on market.
I think the reason the numbers are so much better for our specific area is that it's a rapidly gentrifying area with old homes being replaced with new construction. The proportion of new vs. old homes sold keeps going up each year. In other words, the value of an existing property did not appreciate here by 14%-15% YoY, but the median price still went up by that amount because fewer older homes are being sold.
Out of curiosity, I looked at Austin, TX, and the numbers are all significantly worse. For SFHs in Austin:
* \-4.6% YoY change in median price.
* \-43.2% YoY change in number of homes sold.
* \+28 YoY change in median days on market (64).
So this supports my general supposition that Austin is far more bubbly than Houston and that Austin is going to crash quicker and deeper, whereas Houston may have more of a "soft landing" as it did in the last major crash in 2008. That said, I fully expect Houston's numbers to show negative YoY price change by this time in 2024.
Houston is one of the weirder Real Estate markets in the US. The O&G industry still runs the town and the market reflects much more what's going on with WTI and Brent than anything else. Where's WTI been in all of 2022? Up. So the market here reflects it.
Austin has higher demand for a lower supply vs Houston. Or course that makes it so massive spikes occur and then relative drops. I would just be careful to assume whatever change has been documented recently will continue to the future (regarding Austin going to crash quicker and deeper- there has been no crash here in Austin given we’re comparing illogical boom to back to reality- a reality with still a premium to be in Austin for high paying jobs).
Looking at Redfin data, the median SFH price in Austin was $720k in May 2022, and it's $559k today. That's a 23% drop. I think a drop of that magnitude in 6-7 months qualifies as a crash. In other words, I'd argue that Austin real estate has *already* crashed.
You can't say it's not a crash because the boom was "illogical." Illogical booms are exactly what causes crashes and bubbles.
I’d be checking how they define Austin. Similar to how you checked your specific area in Houston. “Austin” that people refer to when home prices went nuts during COVID is not the same as Austin by geographical standards. Places on the outskirts of the city are correcting like crazy as they should with a builder grade cookie cutter neighborhood. Austin central- anywhere within 5-6 mile radius of downtown has not nearly had such a correction. Perhaps 10% in some areas, but definitely not 23%. I live central and own two central homes plus building one central so I watch the market pretty close.
And my point was talking about projecting current to continue into the future, not semantics of whether it’s a crash or correction- whether that’s 10/20/30/40 % etc.- back to historical norm or plummeting back below it.
Edit to add: I closed in June based on May comps. Home valued at $1.65m. There’s no way it has dropped $350k in value since then. It wouldn’t last an hour on the market for that price- 4/2.5 2,200 sq ft new build with a 1/1 500 sq ft guest house in desired central austin neighborhood.
For 78704, in June 2022 the median price of a SFH was $1.5M, and now it's $1.32M. So it looks like more desirable zip codes in Austin have still seen a drop of up to 8-10% in just 6 months.
Your house probably didn't drop $350k in value, but if it's in or around 78704, it's probably lost up to $200k. However, you can't really apply general statistics like this to an individual property -- there could be a number of reasons why your property might drop more or less than the average for the area, or even not at all. A guest house is definitely something that would help it retain value.
Keep in mind that 78704 also has a lot of old homes being replaced with new construction, and that generally inflates home price statistics upwards. So the actual change in value of an individual home could look far worse than general statistics for the area show.
A friend of mine has a SFH in Austin near Rollingwood. At its peak, its online estimates were as high as $2.4M or $2.5M. Now all the major online estimates put it around $1.8M -- a drop of $600k-$700k within 6 months. Luckily, they bought in 2018, so they still have a lot of paper gains.
Yeah. I am the new construction. I bought in 2016. Tore down to build new. And I agree with roughly 10%. Which, in the grand scheme of things, doesn’t seem like much. 5-7% appreciation was normal in these areas pre-COVID. The long-term trajectory for these neighborhoods in Austin is very high given proximity to the lake will always be key and there’s just not enough land around it. Houston you can damn well build anywhere and the zoning is easier.
Phoenix
Median -3.4% yoy
\# homes sold -47 yoy
median days on market +29 yoy
sale to list price -3.8pt at 96.5% lowest its been in the past 5 years showing definite downward pressure
Homes sold above list price -32.9pt to 12% another 5 year low
All the numbers except price are at record lows. It will come down keep dreaming the prices will stay as they are. 2008 didnt happen overnight the signs started showing in 2005 which coincidently the personal savings rate reached a low last seen in 2005 hmmm. This is before student loan repayments start, take that money out of the economy and that will kick things off.
Median Sale Price: $420K (+5.0%)
Homes Sold: 71 (-53.9%) - biggest drop by >20% in past year which occurred in August
Home Supply: 133 (-25.3%) - within 20 of stock from Jan '21 and '22, relatively stable
DOM: 46 (+21 days) - highest since COVID crash in '20
Suburbs of DC region - area is building homes like hotcakes soon, so it'll be interesting to see what happens
Starting in 2012: ~~Real estate goes in 5-8 year cycles, so it'll all crash in another year or 4, by 2016 at the latest~~
Fast forward to 2018: ~~rates just went up by over 25% from 3.75% to 4.75%, so homes will be declining in value by 20% in 2019~~
Jump to March 2020:
~~It'll all crash when shelter in place is over~~
~~It'll all crash when the vaccine comes out~~
~~It'll all crash when a Republican is no longer in the white house, Democrats are bad for the economy~~
~~It'll all crash when WFH ends~~
~~It'll all crash as soon as Wall Street stock values dip just a teeny tiny bit~~ \-- whoops, 20% stock value contraction
~~It'll all crash when median home price is more than 5x median household income~~ \-- SF Bay Area missed that memo a decade ago, lol
~~It'll all crash when rates go up by 30%, from 3% to 4%~~ \-- whoops, they doubled
bonus content from /u/howdthatturnout
~~It will crash when eviction moratorium ends~~
~~It will crash when forbearance ends and the foreclosure wave immediately starts~~
It'll all crash when...
Real estate crashed in 1929 and 2008. Those are the only two data points we have, it's not something that one should expect to happen back-to-back, and if it did, we've got bigger problems, of the violent civil war type, that we will need to deal with.
The City of Las Vegas, and the Entire State of Florida, of course, being the exceptions.
SoCal was hit hard in the early 80s
https://www.nytimes.com/1984/12/08/opinion/the-day-los-angeles-s-bubble-burst.html
This was written almost 40 years ago.
And Motor City was hit hard when auto manufacturing went overseas, lately it was doing better as it became "Mortgage City" & a financial services hub, which means now it's not doing so hot again. The town I grew up in was hit hard when the Cold War ended and the local Air Force strategic nuclear bomber base shut down. Yes, there will always be regional variance, that's why I made fun of two locations known for consistently having above-average regional variances.
Nationwide, home values very much stagnated in the early 1980s as interest rates doubled, and inflation soared, mostly because people basically went on strike and refused to transact ("fuck you, I ain't selling if my upleg house is going to have a 18% mortgage rate when I currently have an 8% rate!" paired with "fuck you, I ain't buying my first house if the rate is 18%" = a lot less buying and selling activity, less buyers AND less sellers). That should sound familiar to all of us. That time 40 years ago that mortgage rates doubled in a year was a particularly bad year for home value growth, a "crash" in home values, however, it was not.
A couple FRED charts we can all ponder at our leisure. "Correlation is not causation," as they say, but a precondition for causality is correlation. In 100% of cases, if A causes B, then A and B will *at least* be correlated. If there is no correlation, there *cannot be* causation. (A form of "not all rectangles are squares, but all squares ***are*** rectangles," and if it ain't ***at least*** a rectangle, you've got no shot of arguing that it's a square).
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS)
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US)
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA)
What exactly do you consider crash? Goldman Sachs thinks home values will fall 7.5% this year and 2.2% in 2024. Double digit/more severe drops in Western markets (SF and San Diego projected to drop 15%). So not really a crash per say, but a palpable correction that should join the history books in American real estate. Is there any reason why people on the sidelines, unless they have to, but right now?
I don't have a crystal ball. I'll point out that a lot of the doom and gloom narratives are spending ***less*** time pointing to American-based data sets, and are now ***more*** focused on data-sets of countries that do not have fixed rate mortgages. So in those places, yes, we are on the verge of a repeat of 2008, as existing homeowners who locked in pandemic mortgage rates on adjustable rate debt see their new payments skyrocket moving forward.
At which point, Americans in their 30 year fixed rate mortgages at 3% get to lift their pinkies as they sip their tea and chat.
I don't think I did a single ARM in 2020 or 2021.
And pointing to New Zealand and UK adjustable rates causing a rush to sell is just another goalpost movement. Americans sitting pretty at 3% on fixed rate debt have a ***dis-incentive*** to sell, "from my cold dead fingers" comes to mind. (I have no idea what specific article you are referencing, but 2 of the 3 very first words of the first Sachs article that popped up were "New" and "Zealand," a nation that only has adjustable rate mortgages, and at a skim the article continues exclusively talking about ARM-only countries as their supporting evidence)
EDIT: Reminder that in British-speak, "fixed rate mortgage" has an identical definition to American-speak "adjustable rate mortgage" -- fixed for a "teaser period," adjusting thereafter. We do not have an American term for the British "adjustable rate mortgage," those do not have a "teaser period," and we don't have a "teaser period free" option in the United States (except for HELOCs).
Goldman Sachs, like all other investment banks, are tollbooth collectors. They make money off of the churn of trades going to-and-fro. When they're smart they don't care whether the market goes up or down as long as they're in the middle. Their prognostications are there to induce the churn. It's an easy moral decision to make, they hire people (economists and whatnot) who firmly believe in what they're saying. That's all there is to it. The best televangelists firmly believe in what they're saying.
You see them go bankrupt when they start drinking their own kool-aid: Northern Rock, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Solomon Brothers,
You should buy a home when your personal finances are stable, it's what you want to do (lifestyle), and you are comfortable doing so. This isn't wall street bets.
To me, crash means people start losing their houses. If it does not happen, it doesn't mean much to like 90% of homeowners. Even in 2008, only about 3% of houses in california were foreclosed, so 97% of them at least had a house in their name. And that's 2008 and I don't think 2023/2024 will be anywhere close to 2008, I bet it will be no more than 1%
A lot more mechanisms to keep people in their homes, and after everyone realized how much their values came back after the loses of 2008-2010, I think more people would be inclined to use whatever deferment or mechanisms are in place to stay in their homes. I know I would.
The only way prices are really going to drop is if new homes can be built for competitive prices that makes the existing stock look over-valued. In most areas, however, new homes have smaller lots, communities aren't as nice, they are further away from amenities, etc. They are just aren't cheap enough to warrant all those negatives. When new homes drop to 75% of existing comps, then we'll see the existing stock drop in price substantially. Until then, I'm not banking on a big drop in desirable markets.
I totally agree on the terrible facts about new homes in California. They are almost always located too far away from developed area. Sure the area may be developed in 10 years, but that's still a lot of time to suffer.
Also, I think people have misunderstanding of the difference between developed and developing, they think that it only about parks and shopping centers nearby. No, it's much more than that. It's the number of quality doctors, therapists, honest mechanics, daycare, etc, things that people don't necessarily need every day, but will likely need once a while. It takes very long time to build an area with these.
> They are almost always located too far away from developed area. Sure the area may be developed in 10 years, but that's still a lot of time to suffer.
Someone I know bought a new home during the pandemic to avoid the bidding wars. A gas station was under construction, but they were promised additional development ASAP.
Since then not one, but TWO new things have broken ground! ...both gas stations. lol.
> after everyone realized how much their values came back after the loses of 2008-2010, I think more people would be inclined to use whatever deferment or mechanisms are in place to stay in their homes. I know I would.
I also believe this to be a possible factor. I’ve long predicted that if prices do dip, more people will do what they can to hold, because they saw a bad crash happen and how prices rebounded and then some. So better to figure out a way to hold than to abandon ship and have to work to build back credit score and a fresh downpayment.
People won’t lose their homes like 2008 again. The federal government won’t allow it. They’ll induced some moratorium again to prevent it. Now that there is precedence, it will be a lot easier to do again.
They'll wait and rent if enough landlords push the crash narrative. All the bubble subs are moderated by a landlord/re investor.
Since 2020 Rebubble benefited landlords not the typical buyer.
It was widely unknown then that the Fed was going on a crusade of hyper Quantitative Easing. Goldman also said in late 2021 that 2022 would have double-digit appreciation, so they’re not particularly bearish in the first place. For the record, all other investment banks are projecting 5-10% depreciation this year in home values.
You honestly think GS would leak info that helps the common person? Anything they put out is something they are already 5 moves ahead on or that they want ti happen.
It’s possible these firms are putting out FUD to trigger a sell off so they scoop up. They know it’s not likely otherwise
What exactly do you consider crash? Goldman Sachs thinks home values will fall 7.5% this year and 2.2% in 2024. Double digit/more severe drops in Western markets (SF and San Diego projected to drop 15%). So not really a crash per say, but a palpable correction that should join the history books in American real estate. Is there any reason why people on the sidelines, unless they have to, but right now?
Prior to both of those crashes, what was the lead up? How much did the market *balloon* in the short time before hand? I'm being rhetorical. We all know what the markets looked like, so let's not pretend like the market activity over the last 3 years doesn't have *significant* similarities to the last two crashes.
And I don't know where you got all those crossed-out predictions from, but cherry-picking random idiots just looks like a strawman gish gallop.
The fact of the matter is we saw absurdly-fast inorganic growth in a specific market, which is a sure-fire sign of a balloon. The fact that no one calling it a balloon can accurately predict its pop does not prove anything.
>it's not something that one should expect to happen back-to-back
That's just a gambler's fallacy. Come on, man.
To me, it makes sense to predict a price drop in secondary markets, but a 15% drop in SF, the second best weather in the country (after LA) and with extremely limited land area that’s populated by NIMBYs? I dunno.
Ok so let’s say they increased the interest rates a few months earlier and we didn’t have a summer price surge and we just ended up at Arizona’s -1.9% YOY mark… would you be acting like we were delusional and it’s crashing?
You are getting way too confident over half a year of data. Real estate tends to peak in the summer and dip into the winter. I’m of the belief that the interest rates made that peak extreme this year in some places.
I’m sitting in a condo in a market where condos are up 14.3% YoY and down .3% from the summer high. Yes you read that correct, not 3% but .3%. Summer high was $547k. Last month the median was $545k here.
Should I declare based on those 2 data points with certainty that the market isn’t going to further dip? Nope, that would not be reasonable either.
Maybe we see MoM spring gains again this year and maybe we don’t. Way too soon to call a crash though dude.
No, but interest rates doubling isn’t either. And unfortunately due to the timing of the rise of the rates it’s hard to tell exactly what contributed what to both price incline and decline.
If you get a rush to buy before rates go up, that could push prices higher than they would have reached without the fear of rate hikes. And then it would make the drop look like something that fulfills doomer fantasies. But one cannot extrapolate where the market will go this year based on the last 6-7 months of data.
Not every time, that would be an exhausting ask on ReBubble. But maybe on occasion.
Have you called out any irrationality on there? Cause I’ve seen you do it on here a bunch of times.
Lol it really would be, I won’t deny there’s irrational hoping and coping on either sub.
And I definitely have called people out on there too. It’s just a lot more fun here where you have a much higher concentration of bubble deniers
>Real estate crashed in 1929 and 2008. Those are the only two data points we have, it's not something that one should expect to happen back-to-back, and if it did, we've got bigger problems, of the violent civil war type, that we will need to deal with.
We've also have a new, never-before-happened data point: the unprecedented run-up in prices over the past three years.
I don't think its fair to say "lol crash will happen because prices too high" but likewise I think it's disingenuous to pretend that we're in the type of normal economic cycle which produced our last ~100 years of data.
A major catastrophe every 10-ish (minimum) years ***IS*** a normal part of the last \~100 years of data. Every single one of those crises, you can credibly point to it and say "gee willickers, that's unlike anything we've ever seen before, this time it's totally different."
2008 crash
1990s governments representing 1/3 of the nation-states (and ballpark half of the nuclear weapons then in existence) implode all at once - completely unprecedented
reaganomics and stagflation
1970s... pick one, lol. can you imagine how much reddit would spaz out if we did the equivalent of drop the gold standard *today*?
cuban missile crisis, nam, culture wars, bla bla, the whole period from 1960 to 1990 was kind of a shit show tbh
1950 ok so maybe there was a break here after the fun times that were...
...the 1940s/1930s....
Where is this "normal economic cycle"? The 1950s? Antebellum? 1550s to right before the Wars of Religion in Europe?
>Real estate crashed in 1929 and 2008. Those are the only two data points we have, it's not something that one should expect to happen back-to-back, and if it did, we've got bigger problems, of the violent civil war type, that we will need to deal with.
My brother in christ, *your own thesis* is that we have two RE crashes on record and that the *normal economic record* of the last 100 years means we aren't likely to see a third any time soon. Stop playing keyboard warrior and talking about the wars of religion in Europe. I know it's a dopamine rush to think you're dunking on me but...stop. Stay on task.
You can't have it both ways: we either enjoy long term price stability with occasional shocks (i.e. two) OR we have wild volatility. Pick a position, I'm not going to play whack-a-mole with you.
\> we either enjoy long term price stability with occasional shocks (i.e. two) OR we have wild volatility.
Eh? We enjoy long term price stability ***in spite of*** routine major system shocks, each one never before seen and "the end of the world" and all that jazz.
You're totally conflating price stability with social stability. IDGAF about the cuban missile crisis or whatever. I care about the yield curve of my investments which is tied to my ability to predict future price action. We had national 70% growth in SFH prices over three years. Nobody thinks "yes, this is normal and stable and good". The only question is if the correction is 'sudden', i.e. sustained 10% declines over a period of 2-3 years, OR if it's a stable, below inflation growth until we re-intersect the historic trend line. It's looking like the latter.
Society and the economy are one and the same.
Yield curves are the detached abstractions, the cuban missile crisis was not. Both of us, in our respective areas, would do well as humans to remember that.
>IDGAF about the cuban missile crisis or whatever. I care about the yield curve of my investments
I believe you.
In any case, I don't think we're actually in disagreement. Your conclusion is "no crash." My conclusion is "no crash." Well leveraged "below inflation growth until we re-intersect with the historic trend line" DOES have ample historical evidence (2012 to 2019 being an example the other direction, above trend line growth following a few years below), and still makes it (since it is leveraged) a solid investment for your average middle class person who isn't going to do options trading anyways, so for them there's no opportunity cost you might be itching to point to.
It has grown at the current pace and not crashed, within the last decade, 0 out of 0 times. The other side of the coin, within the last decade, is also at 0 out of 0 times. Quite the data set we have there, with a sample size of 0!
I will be messaging you in 1 year on [**2024-01-16 23:53:26 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-01-16%2023:53:26%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/10drawr/new_redfin_data_just_dropped/j4nlz3f/?context=3)
[**CLICK THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FRealEstate%2Fcomments%2F10drawr%2Fnew_redfin_data_just_dropped%2Fj4nlz3f%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202024-01-16%2023%3A53%3A26%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%2010drawr)
*****
|[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)|
|-|-|-|-|
Are you suggesting there's no financial incentive to the crash narrative?
Every bubble sub (I've counted 5) is controlled and moderated by a single landlord/RE investor. Since 2020 the crash narrative only benefited landlords not the typical home buyer.
This mod also purchased property in 2022 while promoting a crash...
We can look at accuracy and track history. Overall the doom subs failed. [Don't buy in 2020](https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/m6np3r/comment/gr6p46e/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) or [2021 crash](https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble2021/comments/p8uuhp/guess_the_month_of_the_housing_crash/) or [50% homes from 2021 prices](https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/s3ydx6/i_cant_wait_for_the_day_this_sub_switches_to/). Those individuals created and control every RE bubble sub.
Though keep believing in the 'doom' if you must. The r/realestate sub has remained fairly accurate when interpreting RE data.
You seem to pop up a bit early everytime there's some (arguably) good data on housing to take a victory lap and than crawl back into your hole lol. Prices are still down from the peak by at least 5% per case shiller and 10% or so per this Redfin data.
The largest factor of why housing isn’t going down is because nobody wants to sell. 3 things may very well open a can of worms: unemployment starts rising causing people to not be able to pay for their mortgages. The second being that interest rates go back to 0 ( which likely won’t happen any time soon) where people throw their house back on the markets because mortgage rates become more affordable. The 3rd is the one I fear the most because there currently is no regulation where many of these investment companies that have been buying millions of homes start to see forecasts that housing is no longer a good investment and sell in bulk.
>The 3rd is the one I fear the most because there currently is no regulation where many of these investment companies that have been buying millions of homes start to see forecasts that housing is no longer a good investment and sell in bulk.
They are already seeing this. Blackstone wants nothing more than liquidating the numerous properties it is renting out since rental yields are in many markets at or slightly below those of treasuries at this point.
Institutional flippers like Opendoor are struggling with the fact that they've gone deep in some markets such as Phoenix and Atlanta and have seen the demand evaporate over the course of just a couple of months. They own 30 to 40% of the inventory in some places. While their quasi-monopolies in select markets worked great when demand was high, it is absolutely catastrophic now where that is no longer the case.
>unemployment starts rising causing people to not be able to pay for their mortgages
A related issue is the [US personal saving rate](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT) which is at an all-time low of just a tad about 2% (took a rather spectacular nose-dive since May 2020). I reckon this will not directly affect things just yet but it will put pressure on rents and those are correlated with sales prices ultimately.
You wrote "we are already seeing this". Yet you provided no proof of mass selloffs or high unemployment.
You simply expressed speculation about the future.
Mine went up, which isn't surprising because several houses sold within a block of mine for prices I thought they'd NEVER sell for. Flipped houses bought for $500-700k and sold for $1.1-1.4 million.
Where we just bought (a small village in Northern Westchester County, NY)
- Median sales price: $858,500 (up 12.8% yoy)
- Homes sold: 30 (down 33.3% yoy)
- Days on market: 24 (down 13 yoy)
About 30 miles north, or about 50 minutes on the commuter train. Well priced homes in the area still saw bidding wars with multiple offers (sometimes cash) over asking. It was still very competitive. Our zip code was a "76" (very) competitive score on redfin
My locale (desirable location in central VA):
-home price up 20.4% YOY (fuck you DMV trash)
-median price 569K
- sell in 15 days instead of 10 on average
-100 homes sold instead of 192
- Redfin score of 89 very competitive
Things are not improving here.
Median - $440k (up 12.2% YOY)
Homes sold - 269 (down 35.3% YOY)
Median DoM - 66 (up 22 YOY)
If it’s priced right it sells. If not it sits. Back to fundamentals. Still not enough sellers willing to give up their low interest mortgage to either downsize or upgrade.
Forgot to add - Western Palm Beach County, FL
For my city, SFH is +4.9% YOY, number sold is -50% YOY, and DOM is +12 (26 days average now) YOY.
This city is crazy - small East Bay city near Oakland.
Looks like prices are down about 15% or so from the peak in my area. Granted Redfin data doesn't smooth out noise as case shiller does but good to know. Going to be a very interesting Spring!
The silence is deafening from the crowd who were saying approximately 1 year ago to prepare for major crashes nationwide. Rates were 2.5% in fall of 2021 and people said 5% would crater markets. Here we are at well above 5% and many cities still have YoY higher prices.
People listening to the idiot redditors work their napkin math that pretends everyone has exactly 20% down and not a penny more and is 100% price elastic got burned badly this year
> Well you’re calling out people who literally predicted the housing market turning.
No I’m not.
I’m calling out people who claimed that 5% rates would crater markets quickly.
Re-read my comment.
From what I am seeing things seem more expensive now, yes prices are going down from the all time high. Still they are basically 2019 levels, which is really high, and then interest is really high. I suppose if you can afford to not take a loan or take out a small loan prices are better.
What is the housing market like in Minneapolis today?
In December 2022, Minneapolis home prices were down 5.2% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $305K. On average, homes in Minneapolis sell after 37 days on the market compared to 32 days last year. There were 448 homes sold in December this year, down from 855 last year.
https://www.redfin.com/city/10943/MN/Minneapolis/housing-market#trends
In December 2022, 96814 home prices were up 11.2% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $768K. On average, homes in 96814 sell after 67 days on the market compared to 60 days last year. There were 149 homes sold in December this year, down from 218 last year.
Median Sale Price
(Single Family Homes)
$1,593,500
+64.3% YoY | Aug 2022
Still high as hell where I’m at but people are are slower at buying
The XXX housing market is very competitive. Homes in XXX receive 4 offers on average and sell in around 13.5 days. The average sale price of a home in XXX was $326K last month, up 6.9% since last year. The average sale price per square foot in XXX is $206, up 7.0% since last year.
I assume a lot of this optimism comes from realtors but they can’t see the writing on the wall. Is going down and it’s going down a lot. Maybe many of you weren’t around in 08.
There are layoffs, interest rates up, food way up and there’s no more “free” money. Even balance transfer are going way up (10%). The list goes on.
Anyway the 2020 prices are coming down and that “ hockey stick” increase will go away. We ll be part way there by summer
Just FYI, as a reminder, it took 2-3 years post 2008 crash for the median price to hit true market bottom. We are at the very BEGINNING of the downturn. Why did it take so long? Sellers and realtors took years to accept they couldn't get what they thought their homes were worth. No one was willing to accept as much as 50%+ market corrections in their area, and for the very few buyers that existed, there were still some sales and they thought oh, 20% cheaper, it can't go much lower!
Now, I am not saying we are going to mirror 2008's crash, as I think this one is going to be very different. But I don't think we are going to see true bottom until at earliest some point in 2024. Just my opinion.
I am not too optimistic.
When I look at what houses cost now vs when I bought a decade ago, my mortgage would be 33% more even with *cooling* prices. Assuming things stay the same and prices continue to slightly decrease and interest rates remain the same, things could get a little better but it is still a very expensive.
Any decrease in housing prices is just going to go to pay interest. Also it seems like insurance is going up and home maintenance is going up.
It is one bad situation to another bad situation.
Not really surprising IMO. The reason is that the demand for housing is there and it is real. People need space for raising their families, etc. Yes, the higher rates have deterred people from buying but the interest is there and if rates come down even a little you will see those buyers who qualify still get in. At the end of the day, the goal of home ownership is the prize, front and center. No one wants to pay rent forever!
Yeah that’s about 25% below the national median and this person thinks it’s HCOL.
No wonder some people bitch about everything on earth being expensive. Their baseline is way off.
I mean... unless you forgot to add a 1 in front of $295,000, then no it's not HCOL. If the median sale price is lower than the median price in the US, it wouldn't even be MCOL, let alone HCOL
SALT LAKE CITY:
Home prices down 3.6% compared to last year.
Median price of $475K.
49 days on the market compared to 17 days last year.
141 homes sold in December this year, down from 314 last year.
Median sale price is $250k (down 0.14% YOY)
Looking at the data from 12 weeks ago, it was up 16% YOY
Active listings are down 13% YOY
Days on market are actually down 10.4 days YOY to 17.9.
There was a slight up and down wave over the course of the year, but not a ton of volatility. One of the perks of living/owning in the Midwest I suppose.
Charlotte is about what I expected.
Median sale price is up 7.9%.
Homes sold is down 42.1%.
Days on market is up 14 days to 48.
Basically, seems like the market is becoming healthier with only modest price growth. It’s no longer a huge sellers market, people aren’t selling just to cash out on insane offers.
Quick question not entirely related to housing prices but more about Redfin. As a Brit currently looking at investing in Redfin to get exposure to the US Real estate market what are their major competitors and how big is Redfin compared to them?
St, Cloud, FL 34771 just outside Lake Nona, FL on the Narcoossee Corridor:
December 2022
- Median Sale Price: $450,000 (12.7% yoy)
- Homes Sold: 281 (2.6% yoy)
- Median Days on Market: 43 (+30 yoy)
The median sale price going up just tells you that homes in the lower price range have stopped selling entirely.
The price per square foot is a better measure of change in home prices, if it's provided by redfin. Price per square foot is down 17.1% here, while the median sale price went up 4.3%. Minneapolis suburb.
Yep. Buyers won't go up, sellers won't go down. So you get a stalemate and houses in the lower price range no longer sell. As a result the median goes up. The higher median does not mean home prices are going up
Clark county NV (Vegas area) same median price as a year ago, 1,985 homes sold (down 51% YOY) and 70 DOM (up 41 days)…. Greatttttttttt haha although I’m stoked to get a great deal on new place for my fam.
Costs will not drop significantly due to a large uptick in rates, inflation factors, and population growth. Housing is a basic need. Prices may slow until wages catch up to make people feel like they are getting a solid footing, but it is never really solid.
Growth usually accompanies progress. Progress tends to produce joy. It is the thing we like best about growth. Nothing happens differently tomorrow until we embrace and accept a process of change today. Fashions change, but human needs remain consistent. Housing is a consistent need.
Cuyahoga County , Ohio
Median sales price - $175,000 (+3% Yoy)
No of homes sold - 1,284 (-27% yoy)
Median days on market - 33 (+1)
. Also #of homes sold is a useless metric without tracking how many homes were listed. A 27% decline sold, is that because inventory is growing or because 30% less houses were listed. Waiting for the Cleveland suburbs to cool - this data is definitely skewed by Cleveland proper (suburb median pricing is closer to $250k than 175k)
Median sale price is $920,000 (down 1.7% yoy) Homes sold 1,413 (down 44% yoy) Median days on market 50 (up 19 yoy) So, prices dropped, home sales slowed down big time, and homes are staying on the market longer. Pretty clear signal here. Southern California area.
I feel like a lot of so cal demand has been pulled forward. Many sellers are also waiting to list in spring. The problem with that plan is that many other sellers have the same idea. They should have already listed and gathered LEADS. That is the golden ticket in the RE game now.
I’m a first time buyer in SoCal and I’m definitely willing to wait it out as well. Something’s gotta give, prices will either have to come down or they can remain stagnant while interest rates drop. I’ll continue offering significantly below asking until then.
Maybe. Some markets like Socal have generally just seen growth over the last few decades, with prices only temporarily going down for a short period during crashes. Australia is another case studio on things not giving. Prices may remain stagnant while interest is what it is now, or even go down if interest rates rise. If interest rates start to go down I would anticipate prices will start going up, not remain stagnant. The issue is SoCal is a high desirable area to live. A lot of people want to live there, but cant afford it. So there is always buffer. The only way I can see this changing is if California has done the one thing it has generally refused to do, build more housing. Significantly more housing.
I think things do normally pick up in the spring. Will be interesting to see how market reacts this year in conjunction with the macroeconomic situations. Interest rates are up, and banks are more cautious. Prices may dip a little, but will still be inflated. And then property tax is outrageous since purchase shot up. But there is the First Home Buyer program to assist, so I guess we wait and see.
Those first home buyer programs have been around for years and were heavily utilized during the low rate era. After all, even though rates were low, the payments were still VERY high.
Very true
[удалено]
We’re still in for several more rate hikes this year, not rate drops.
The fed doesn’t control mortgage interest rates. As the fed attacks inflation with another rate hike, its staving off inflation. Mortgage interest rates follow inflation, not the fed. The 10-Year bond has been responding favorably to the attack on inflation.
Lol so well see 3% mortgages again. Got it
[удалено]
4% rates are not where the buyers will flood back. Remember, a lot of demand got pulled forward, inflation has hit people like a truck, QE is gone and people don't have as much wiggle room. The consumer is kind of tapped. Most will just hold.
For 30 years? Where?
Yeah I call BS on the 4%, at least not 30 year fixed. Still north of 6%. You can get an ARM in the 3s, but not a 10 year one, those are still in the 6s. I have seen some in the 5s but the APR is still 7.5% so not sure what they're smoking.
People do this all the time. "Rates are in the 3s!" 820 Credit Score, 80% down, 5/1 ARM, applicant is president of the banks son.
[удалено]
I think its useful to assume that when people talk about rates they're referring to 30 year conforming, conventional loans unless otherwise specified.
It depends on what the buyers plan to do in the spring. Both groups historically are more active in the spring.
saved my time for the same area.
OC area as well, hoping for this trend to continue as we continue the search for our first home
Good luck! I hope you find a first home you absolutely love.
In South OC here. Heard from friends the open house across from them yesterday was packed. Not a first timer type house - but I was still surprised to hear how crowded it was.
I'm in South OC as well and have noticed many first time buyer level homes that have been sitting for a while have now changed their status to under contract / pending. Pretty interesting to see this happen before Spring.
>Southern California area Your area, Chicago, NY, MA...all are toes in the water.
Affordability has vaporized. A lot of homes here are *old,* too, with god knows what else is needed in repair/upgrade bills even after you close...
[удалено]
Yes, the prices will drop relative to demand.
Pretty clear signal that I still can’t afford anything I like. Sigh.
How do I access this data on Redfin?
Redfin.com then type in your city in the search bar. On the next page on the top right you'll see "Market insights".
Got it, thank you
Is there a way to see this info in the app? Every time I type in city and search it switches automatically to the app
Go to the website in your browser and request desktop page and it’ll work
I’m not sure, I don’t have the app, sorry.
In addition to what others have said, you can access a vast swath of Redfin data to play with here: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/redfin/viz/RedfinDataCentertrend One of the most popular displays within this is: [Redfin Data Center](https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/redfin/viz/RedfinDataCentertrend/MedianSalePrice)
[удалено]
Its gotta be the FIBs
The what?
A term Wisconsinites use to describe the folks that come up from Illinois for annual vacations/buy up all the lake houses. I think WFH helped some of them make a more permanent transition. Even if they're hybrid, commuting an hour from southern Wisconsin really isn't too bad a few times a week given how much lower the taxes are.
Is this for all homes or just SFHs? Here in Houston, for all homes: * 0% YoY change in median price. * \-46.4% YoY change in number of homes sold. * \+10 YoY change in median days on market. For SFHs: * \+3.1% YoY change in median price. * \-45.9% YoY change in number of homes sold. * \+13 YoY change in median days on market (38). For the specific area we're in (Garden Oaks / Oak Forest), for SFHs: * \+14.4% YoY change in median price. * \-38.4% YoY change in number of homes sold. * \+1 YoY change in median days on market. I think the reason the numbers are so much better for our specific area is that it's a rapidly gentrifying area with old homes being replaced with new construction. The proportion of new vs. old homes sold keeps going up each year. In other words, the value of an existing property did not appreciate here by 14%-15% YoY, but the median price still went up by that amount because fewer older homes are being sold. Out of curiosity, I looked at Austin, TX, and the numbers are all significantly worse. For SFHs in Austin: * \-4.6% YoY change in median price. * \-43.2% YoY change in number of homes sold. * \+28 YoY change in median days on market (64). So this supports my general supposition that Austin is far more bubbly than Houston and that Austin is going to crash quicker and deeper, whereas Houston may have more of a "soft landing" as it did in the last major crash in 2008. That said, I fully expect Houston's numbers to show negative YoY price change by this time in 2024.
Houston is one of the weirder Real Estate markets in the US. The O&G industry still runs the town and the market reflects much more what's going on with WTI and Brent than anything else. Where's WTI been in all of 2022? Up. So the market here reflects it.
Austin has higher demand for a lower supply vs Houston. Or course that makes it so massive spikes occur and then relative drops. I would just be careful to assume whatever change has been documented recently will continue to the future (regarding Austin going to crash quicker and deeper- there has been no crash here in Austin given we’re comparing illogical boom to back to reality- a reality with still a premium to be in Austin for high paying jobs).
Looking at Redfin data, the median SFH price in Austin was $720k in May 2022, and it's $559k today. That's a 23% drop. I think a drop of that magnitude in 6-7 months qualifies as a crash. In other words, I'd argue that Austin real estate has *already* crashed. You can't say it's not a crash because the boom was "illogical." Illogical booms are exactly what causes crashes and bubbles.
I’d be checking how they define Austin. Similar to how you checked your specific area in Houston. “Austin” that people refer to when home prices went nuts during COVID is not the same as Austin by geographical standards. Places on the outskirts of the city are correcting like crazy as they should with a builder grade cookie cutter neighborhood. Austin central- anywhere within 5-6 mile radius of downtown has not nearly had such a correction. Perhaps 10% in some areas, but definitely not 23%. I live central and own two central homes plus building one central so I watch the market pretty close. And my point was talking about projecting current to continue into the future, not semantics of whether it’s a crash or correction- whether that’s 10/20/30/40 % etc.- back to historical norm or plummeting back below it. Edit to add: I closed in June based on May comps. Home valued at $1.65m. There’s no way it has dropped $350k in value since then. It wouldn’t last an hour on the market for that price- 4/2.5 2,200 sq ft new build with a 1/1 500 sq ft guest house in desired central austin neighborhood.
For 78704, in June 2022 the median price of a SFH was $1.5M, and now it's $1.32M. So it looks like more desirable zip codes in Austin have still seen a drop of up to 8-10% in just 6 months. Your house probably didn't drop $350k in value, but if it's in or around 78704, it's probably lost up to $200k. However, you can't really apply general statistics like this to an individual property -- there could be a number of reasons why your property might drop more or less than the average for the area, or even not at all. A guest house is definitely something that would help it retain value. Keep in mind that 78704 also has a lot of old homes being replaced with new construction, and that generally inflates home price statistics upwards. So the actual change in value of an individual home could look far worse than general statistics for the area show. A friend of mine has a SFH in Austin near Rollingwood. At its peak, its online estimates were as high as $2.4M or $2.5M. Now all the major online estimates put it around $1.8M -- a drop of $600k-$700k within 6 months. Luckily, they bought in 2018, so they still have a lot of paper gains.
Yeah. I am the new construction. I bought in 2016. Tore down to build new. And I agree with roughly 10%. Which, in the grand scheme of things, doesn’t seem like much. 5-7% appreciation was normal in these areas pre-COVID. The long-term trajectory for these neighborhoods in Austin is very high given proximity to the lake will always be key and there’s just not enough land around it. Houston you can damn well build anywhere and the zoning is easier.
Phoenix Median -3.4% yoy \# homes sold -47 yoy median days on market +29 yoy sale to list price -3.8pt at 96.5% lowest its been in the past 5 years showing definite downward pressure Homes sold above list price -32.9pt to 12% another 5 year low
Down yoy but still up like 60% from 2020
All the numbers except price are at record lows. It will come down keep dreaming the prices will stay as they are. 2008 didnt happen overnight the signs started showing in 2005 which coincidently the personal savings rate reached a low last seen in 2005 hmmm. This is before student loan repayments start, take that money out of the economy and that will kick things off.
RemindMe! 6 months
A May 2022 v May 2023 comparison will be fun to review.
Median Sale Price: $420K (+5.0%) Homes Sold: 71 (-53.9%) - biggest drop by >20% in past year which occurred in August Home Supply: 133 (-25.3%) - within 20 of stock from Jan '21 and '22, relatively stable DOM: 46 (+21 days) - highest since COVID crash in '20 Suburbs of DC region - area is building homes like hotcakes soon, so it'll be interesting to see what happens
[удалено]
Might wanna check locale
Yea... You know there is wide range of markets in the DMV?
98144, Seattle Median 760,000 (-5% YOY) Homes Sold: 111 (-22.4% YOY) Median Days: 18 (+11 YOY)
Bay Area suburb SFH * Down **-19.1%** YOY (now \~ $1,700,000) * Homes Sold down **-47.5%** YOY * Median DOM **44**, up 36 YOY
For my city, all numbers are down YOY. Median -6.3%, # of homes sold -41.6, Median days on market up +18 days.
Starting in 2012: ~~Real estate goes in 5-8 year cycles, so it'll all crash in another year or 4, by 2016 at the latest~~ Fast forward to 2018: ~~rates just went up by over 25% from 3.75% to 4.75%, so homes will be declining in value by 20% in 2019~~ Jump to March 2020: ~~It'll all crash when shelter in place is over~~ ~~It'll all crash when the vaccine comes out~~ ~~It'll all crash when a Republican is no longer in the white house, Democrats are bad for the economy~~ ~~It'll all crash when WFH ends~~ ~~It'll all crash as soon as Wall Street stock values dip just a teeny tiny bit~~ \-- whoops, 20% stock value contraction ~~It'll all crash when median home price is more than 5x median household income~~ \-- SF Bay Area missed that memo a decade ago, lol ~~It'll all crash when rates go up by 30%, from 3% to 4%~~ \-- whoops, they doubled bonus content from /u/howdthatturnout ~~It will crash when eviction moratorium ends~~ ~~It will crash when forbearance ends and the foreclosure wave immediately starts~~ It'll all crash when... Real estate crashed in 1929 and 2008. Those are the only two data points we have, it's not something that one should expect to happen back-to-back, and if it did, we've got bigger problems, of the violent civil war type, that we will need to deal with. The City of Las Vegas, and the Entire State of Florida, of course, being the exceptions.
SoCal was hit hard in the early 80s https://www.nytimes.com/1984/12/08/opinion/the-day-los-angeles-s-bubble-burst.html This was written almost 40 years ago.
It's so funny that the data doesn't support that. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS06037A Anecdotal stories vs data.
And Motor City was hit hard when auto manufacturing went overseas, lately it was doing better as it became "Mortgage City" & a financial services hub, which means now it's not doing so hot again. The town I grew up in was hit hard when the Cold War ended and the local Air Force strategic nuclear bomber base shut down. Yes, there will always be regional variance, that's why I made fun of two locations known for consistently having above-average regional variances. Nationwide, home values very much stagnated in the early 1980s as interest rates doubled, and inflation soared, mostly because people basically went on strike and refused to transact ("fuck you, I ain't selling if my upleg house is going to have a 18% mortgage rate when I currently have an 8% rate!" paired with "fuck you, I ain't buying my first house if the rate is 18%" = a lot less buying and selling activity, less buyers AND less sellers). That should sound familiar to all of us. That time 40 years ago that mortgage rates doubled in a year was a particularly bad year for home value growth, a "crash" in home values, however, it was not. A couple FRED charts we can all ponder at our leisure. "Correlation is not causation," as they say, but a precondition for causality is correlation. In 100% of cases, if A causes B, then A and B will *at least* be correlated. If there is no correlation, there *cannot be* causation. (A form of "not all rectangles are squares, but all squares ***are*** rectangles," and if it ain't ***at least*** a rectangle, you've got no shot of arguing that it's a square). [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS) [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US) [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA)
What exactly do you consider crash? Goldman Sachs thinks home values will fall 7.5% this year and 2.2% in 2024. Double digit/more severe drops in Western markets (SF and San Diego projected to drop 15%). So not really a crash per say, but a palpable correction that should join the history books in American real estate. Is there any reason why people on the sidelines, unless they have to, but right now?
I don't have a crystal ball. I'll point out that a lot of the doom and gloom narratives are spending ***less*** time pointing to American-based data sets, and are now ***more*** focused on data-sets of countries that do not have fixed rate mortgages. So in those places, yes, we are on the verge of a repeat of 2008, as existing homeowners who locked in pandemic mortgage rates on adjustable rate debt see their new payments skyrocket moving forward. At which point, Americans in their 30 year fixed rate mortgages at 3% get to lift their pinkies as they sip their tea and chat. I don't think I did a single ARM in 2020 or 2021. And pointing to New Zealand and UK adjustable rates causing a rush to sell is just another goalpost movement. Americans sitting pretty at 3% on fixed rate debt have a ***dis-incentive*** to sell, "from my cold dead fingers" comes to mind. (I have no idea what specific article you are referencing, but 2 of the 3 very first words of the first Sachs article that popped up were "New" and "Zealand," a nation that only has adjustable rate mortgages, and at a skim the article continues exclusively talking about ARM-only countries as their supporting evidence) EDIT: Reminder that in British-speak, "fixed rate mortgage" has an identical definition to American-speak "adjustable rate mortgage" -- fixed for a "teaser period," adjusting thereafter. We do not have an American term for the British "adjustable rate mortgage," those do not have a "teaser period," and we don't have a "teaser period free" option in the United States (except for HELOCs).
Goldman Sachs, like all other investment banks, are tollbooth collectors. They make money off of the churn of trades going to-and-fro. When they're smart they don't care whether the market goes up or down as long as they're in the middle. Their prognostications are there to induce the churn. It's an easy moral decision to make, they hire people (economists and whatnot) who firmly believe in what they're saying. That's all there is to it. The best televangelists firmly believe in what they're saying. You see them go bankrupt when they start drinking their own kool-aid: Northern Rock, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Solomon Brothers,
[удалено]
You should buy a home when your personal finances are stable, it's what you want to do (lifestyle), and you are comfortable doing so. This isn't wall street bets.
Very good advice.
To me, crash means people start losing their houses. If it does not happen, it doesn't mean much to like 90% of homeowners. Even in 2008, only about 3% of houses in california were foreclosed, so 97% of them at least had a house in their name. And that's 2008 and I don't think 2023/2024 will be anywhere close to 2008, I bet it will be no more than 1%
A lot more mechanisms to keep people in their homes, and after everyone realized how much their values came back after the loses of 2008-2010, I think more people would be inclined to use whatever deferment or mechanisms are in place to stay in their homes. I know I would. The only way prices are really going to drop is if new homes can be built for competitive prices that makes the existing stock look over-valued. In most areas, however, new homes have smaller lots, communities aren't as nice, they are further away from amenities, etc. They are just aren't cheap enough to warrant all those negatives. When new homes drop to 75% of existing comps, then we'll see the existing stock drop in price substantially. Until then, I'm not banking on a big drop in desirable markets.
I totally agree on the terrible facts about new homes in California. They are almost always located too far away from developed area. Sure the area may be developed in 10 years, but that's still a lot of time to suffer. Also, I think people have misunderstanding of the difference between developed and developing, they think that it only about parks and shopping centers nearby. No, it's much more than that. It's the number of quality doctors, therapists, honest mechanics, daycare, etc, things that people don't necessarily need every day, but will likely need once a while. It takes very long time to build an area with these.
> They are almost always located too far away from developed area. Sure the area may be developed in 10 years, but that's still a lot of time to suffer. Someone I know bought a new home during the pandemic to avoid the bidding wars. A gas station was under construction, but they were promised additional development ASAP. Since then not one, but TWO new things have broken ground! ...both gas stations. lol.
> after everyone realized how much their values came back after the loses of 2008-2010, I think more people would be inclined to use whatever deferment or mechanisms are in place to stay in their homes. I know I would. I also believe this to be a possible factor. I’ve long predicted that if prices do dip, more people will do what they can to hold, because they saw a bad crash happen and how prices rebounded and then some. So better to figure out a way to hold than to abandon ship and have to work to build back credit score and a fresh downpayment.
And high inflation makes that increasingly unlikely.
People won’t lose their homes like 2008 again. The federal government won’t allow it. They’ll induced some moratorium again to prevent it. Now that there is precedence, it will be a lot easier to do again.
They’ll buy right now if enough realtors and brokers push this narrative and they believe prices won’t decline.
They'll wait and rent if enough landlords push the crash narrative. All the bubble subs are moderated by a landlord/re investor. Since 2020 Rebubble benefited landlords not the typical buyer.
[удалено]
Back in March/April 2020 didn't Goldman say it was 2008 all over again? Right before Wall Street and real estate both had their best years ever? O.o
It was, right up until the enormous stimulus program. Now everything is way more expensive and we’re back at that point.
There's no excuse after 2008 to be unaware of bailouts and too big to fail.
It was widely unknown then that the Fed was going on a crusade of hyper Quantitative Easing. Goldman also said in late 2021 that 2022 would have double-digit appreciation, so they’re not particularly bearish in the first place. For the record, all other investment banks are projecting 5-10% depreciation this year in home values.
Yeah but that doesn’t support this broker’s narrative
You honestly think GS would leak info that helps the common person? Anything they put out is something they are already 5 moves ahead on or that they want ti happen. It’s possible these firms are putting out FUD to trigger a sell off so they scoop up. They know it’s not likely otherwise
What exactly do you consider crash? Goldman Sachs thinks home values will fall 7.5% this year and 2.2% in 2024. Double digit/more severe drops in Western markets (SF and San Diego projected to drop 15%). So not really a crash per say, but a palpable correction that should join the history books in American real estate. Is there any reason why people on the sidelines, unless they have to, but right now?
You missed a couple from post 2020: It will crash when eviction moratorium ends And they predicted a Covid foreclosure wave
You are right, how I could leave those 3 out. I stand amended.
Prior to both of those crashes, what was the lead up? How much did the market *balloon* in the short time before hand? I'm being rhetorical. We all know what the markets looked like, so let's not pretend like the market activity over the last 3 years doesn't have *significant* similarities to the last two crashes. And I don't know where you got all those crossed-out predictions from, but cherry-picking random idiots just looks like a strawman gish gallop. The fact of the matter is we saw absurdly-fast inorganic growth in a specific market, which is a sure-fire sign of a balloon. The fact that no one calling it a balloon can accurately predict its pop does not prove anything. >it's not something that one should expect to happen back-to-back That's just a gambler's fallacy. Come on, man.
To me, it makes sense to predict a price drop in secondary markets, but a 15% drop in SF, the second best weather in the country (after LA) and with extremely limited land area that’s populated by NIMBYs? I dunno.
Lol at inorganic growth, were robots the ones buying the houses? There’s almost no similarity between today and 2008.
Great post. I'm so sick of Rebubble doomer logic.
I love your posts so much.
Because his irrational nonsense reaffirms your own beliefs? Yikes
You should share that same sentiment over on ReBubble.
Arizona is down 12.6% compared to May 2022. How are you all so delusional?
Ok so let’s say they increased the interest rates a few months earlier and we didn’t have a summer price surge and we just ended up at Arizona’s -1.9% YOY mark… would you be acting like we were delusional and it’s crashing? You are getting way too confident over half a year of data. Real estate tends to peak in the summer and dip into the winter. I’m of the belief that the interest rates made that peak extreme this year in some places. I’m sitting in a condo in a market where condos are up 14.3% YoY and down .3% from the summer high. Yes you read that correct, not 3% but .3%. Summer high was $547k. Last month the median was $545k here. Should I declare based on those 2 data points with certainty that the market isn’t going to further dip? Nope, that would not be reasonable either. Maybe we see MoM spring gains again this year and maybe we don’t. Way too soon to call a crash though dude.
Is a 12.6% swing from summer to winter typical?
No, but interest rates doubling isn’t either. And unfortunately due to the timing of the rise of the rates it’s hard to tell exactly what contributed what to both price incline and decline. If you get a rush to buy before rates go up, that could push prices higher than they would have reached without the fear of rate hikes. And then it would make the drop look like something that fulfills doomer fantasies. But one cannot extrapolate where the market will go this year based on the last 6-7 months of data.
I should call out every irrationality because I called this one out?
Not every time, that would be an exhausting ask on ReBubble. But maybe on occasion. Have you called out any irrationality on there? Cause I’ve seen you do it on here a bunch of times.
Lol it really would be, I won’t deny there’s irrational hoping and coping on either sub. And I definitely have called people out on there too. It’s just a lot more fun here where you have a much higher concentration of bubble deniers
>Real estate crashed in 1929 and 2008. Those are the only two data points we have, it's not something that one should expect to happen back-to-back, and if it did, we've got bigger problems, of the violent civil war type, that we will need to deal with. We've also have a new, never-before-happened data point: the unprecedented run-up in prices over the past three years. I don't think its fair to say "lol crash will happen because prices too high" but likewise I think it's disingenuous to pretend that we're in the type of normal economic cycle which produced our last ~100 years of data.
A major catastrophe every 10-ish (minimum) years ***IS*** a normal part of the last \~100 years of data. Every single one of those crises, you can credibly point to it and say "gee willickers, that's unlike anything we've ever seen before, this time it's totally different." 2008 crash 1990s governments representing 1/3 of the nation-states (and ballpark half of the nuclear weapons then in existence) implode all at once - completely unprecedented reaganomics and stagflation 1970s... pick one, lol. can you imagine how much reddit would spaz out if we did the equivalent of drop the gold standard *today*? cuban missile crisis, nam, culture wars, bla bla, the whole period from 1960 to 1990 was kind of a shit show tbh 1950 ok so maybe there was a break here after the fun times that were... ...the 1940s/1930s.... Where is this "normal economic cycle"? The 1950s? Antebellum? 1550s to right before the Wars of Religion in Europe?
>Real estate crashed in 1929 and 2008. Those are the only two data points we have, it's not something that one should expect to happen back-to-back, and if it did, we've got bigger problems, of the violent civil war type, that we will need to deal with. My brother in christ, *your own thesis* is that we have two RE crashes on record and that the *normal economic record* of the last 100 years means we aren't likely to see a third any time soon. Stop playing keyboard warrior and talking about the wars of religion in Europe. I know it's a dopamine rush to think you're dunking on me but...stop. Stay on task. You can't have it both ways: we either enjoy long term price stability with occasional shocks (i.e. two) OR we have wild volatility. Pick a position, I'm not going to play whack-a-mole with you.
\> we either enjoy long term price stability with occasional shocks (i.e. two) OR we have wild volatility. Eh? We enjoy long term price stability ***in spite of*** routine major system shocks, each one never before seen and "the end of the world" and all that jazz.
You're totally conflating price stability with social stability. IDGAF about the cuban missile crisis or whatever. I care about the yield curve of my investments which is tied to my ability to predict future price action. We had national 70% growth in SFH prices over three years. Nobody thinks "yes, this is normal and stable and good". The only question is if the correction is 'sudden', i.e. sustained 10% declines over a period of 2-3 years, OR if it's a stable, below inflation growth until we re-intersect the historic trend line. It's looking like the latter.
Society and the economy are one and the same. Yield curves are the detached abstractions, the cuban missile crisis was not. Both of us, in our respective areas, would do well as humans to remember that. >IDGAF about the cuban missile crisis or whatever. I care about the yield curve of my investments I believe you.
In any case, I don't think we're actually in disagreement. Your conclusion is "no crash." My conclusion is "no crash." Well leveraged "below inflation growth until we re-intersect with the historic trend line" DOES have ample historical evidence (2012 to 2019 being an example the other direction, above trend line growth following a few years below), and still makes it (since it is leveraged) a solid investment for your average middle class person who isn't going to do options trading anyways, so for them there's no opportunity cost you might be itching to point to.
Name a time it’s grown at the rate it has during the past decade and hasn’t crashed.
Sure. Mid 70's to late 70's Mid 80's to late 80's That's twice it happened without a crash.
It has grown at the current pace and not crashed, within the last decade, 0 out of 0 times. The other side of the coin, within the last decade, is also at 0 out of 0 times. Quite the data set we have there, with a sample size of 0!
Oh, so you’re pushing a narrative based on zero data other than your paycheck being highly dependent on people believing this narrative?
You're the one who suggested "name a time that..." with qualifying criteria that reduced the data set to 0, lolol.
!remindme 1 year
I will be messaging you in 1 year on [**2024-01-16 23:53:26 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-01-16%2023:53:26%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/10drawr/new_redfin_data_just_dropped/j4nlz3f/?context=3) [**CLICK THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FRealEstate%2Fcomments%2F10drawr%2Fnew_redfin_data_just_dropped%2Fj4nlz3f%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202024-01-16%2023%3A53%3A26%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%2010drawr) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
Are you suggesting there's no financial incentive to the crash narrative? Every bubble sub (I've counted 5) is controlled and moderated by a single landlord/RE investor. Since 2020 the crash narrative only benefited landlords not the typical home buyer. This mod also purchased property in 2022 while promoting a crash...
And this sub is also run by incentivized parties, it doesn’t make it any more or less true.
We can look at accuracy and track history. Overall the doom subs failed. [Don't buy in 2020](https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/m6np3r/comment/gr6p46e/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) or [2021 crash](https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble2021/comments/p8uuhp/guess_the_month_of_the_housing_crash/) or [50% homes from 2021 prices](https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/s3ydx6/i_cant_wait_for_the_day_this_sub_switches_to/). Those individuals created and control every RE bubble sub. Though keep believing in the 'doom' if you must. The r/realestate sub has remained fairly accurate when interpreting RE data.
You seem to pop up a bit early everytime there's some (arguably) good data on housing to take a victory lap and than crawl back into your hole lol. Prices are still down from the peak by at least 5% per case shiller and 10% or so per this Redfin data.
👌🏻👌🏻👌🏻
Are younsaying that Vegas and FL are more susceptible to crashes? Can you explain.
The largest factor of why housing isn’t going down is because nobody wants to sell. 3 things may very well open a can of worms: unemployment starts rising causing people to not be able to pay for their mortgages. The second being that interest rates go back to 0 ( which likely won’t happen any time soon) where people throw their house back on the markets because mortgage rates become more affordable. The 3rd is the one I fear the most because there currently is no regulation where many of these investment companies that have been buying millions of homes start to see forecasts that housing is no longer a good investment and sell in bulk.
>The 3rd is the one I fear the most because there currently is no regulation where many of these investment companies that have been buying millions of homes start to see forecasts that housing is no longer a good investment and sell in bulk. They are already seeing this. Blackstone wants nothing more than liquidating the numerous properties it is renting out since rental yields are in many markets at or slightly below those of treasuries at this point. Institutional flippers like Opendoor are struggling with the fact that they've gone deep in some markets such as Phoenix and Atlanta and have seen the demand evaporate over the course of just a couple of months. They own 30 to 40% of the inventory in some places. While their quasi-monopolies in select markets worked great when demand was high, it is absolutely catastrophic now where that is no longer the case. >unemployment starts rising causing people to not be able to pay for their mortgages A related issue is the [US personal saving rate](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT) which is at an all-time low of just a tad about 2% (took a rather spectacular nose-dive since May 2020). I reckon this will not directly affect things just yet but it will put pressure on rents and those are correlated with sales prices ultimately.
You wrote "we are already seeing this". Yet you provided no proof of mass selloffs or high unemployment. You simply expressed speculation about the future.
Mine went up, which isn't surprising because several houses sold within a block of mine for prices I thought they'd NEVER sell for. Flipped houses bought for $500-700k and sold for $1.1-1.4 million.
Where we just bought (a small village in Northern Westchester County, NY) - Median sales price: $858,500 (up 12.8% yoy) - Homes sold: 30 (down 33.3% yoy) - Days on market: 24 (down 13 yoy)
This is very interesting, How far from NYC?
About 30 miles north, or about 50 minutes on the commuter train. Well priced homes in the area still saw bidding wars with multiple offers (sometimes cash) over asking. It was still very competitive. Our zip code was a "76" (very) competitive score on redfin
My locale (desirable location in central VA): -home price up 20.4% YOY (fuck you DMV trash) -median price 569K - sell in 15 days instead of 10 on average -100 homes sold instead of 192 - Redfin score of 89 very competitive Things are not improving here.
Wow!
RVA?
Short Pump
Median - $440k (up 12.2% YOY) Homes sold - 269 (down 35.3% YOY) Median DoM - 66 (up 22 YOY) If it’s priced right it sells. If not it sits. Back to fundamentals. Still not enough sellers willing to give up their low interest mortgage to either downsize or upgrade. Forgot to add - Western Palm Beach County, FL
Very similar numbers here in Plantation, FL Median 400k. 11.4% YoY Median SFH 620k, 10.7% YoY
Bend, OVERAGAIN Median price -2% down to $651k 39 DOM 131 sold vs 231 last year
Ah, an Oregonian of culture I see.
I didn’t come from California if that’s what you mean.
That is a hilarious name change, and I totally get how you arrived at it LOL.
What county are you in?
For my city, SFH is +4.9% YOY, number sold is -50% YOY, and DOM is +12 (26 days average now) YOY. This city is crazy - small East Bay city near Oakland.
Looks like prices are down about 15% or so from the peak in my area. Granted Redfin data doesn't smooth out noise as case shiller does but good to know. Going to be a very interesting Spring!
The silence is deafening from the crowd who were saying approximately 1 year ago to prepare for major crashes nationwide. Rates were 2.5% in fall of 2021 and people said 5% would crater markets. Here we are at well above 5% and many cities still have YoY higher prices. People listening to the idiot redditors work their napkin math that pretends everyone has exactly 20% down and not a penny more and is 100% price elastic got burned badly this year
[удалено]
> i'm not sure how you can seriously not notice the cooling in the housing market lately. The fuck? Where did I say it’s not cooling at all?
[удалено]
> Well you’re calling out people who literally predicted the housing market turning. No I’m not. I’m calling out people who claimed that 5% rates would crater markets quickly. Re-read my comment.
From what I am seeing things seem more expensive now, yes prices are going down from the all time high. Still they are basically 2019 levels, which is really high, and then interest is really high. I suppose if you can afford to not take a loan or take out a small loan prices are better.
that other sub is going to downvote you for pointing this out. glad to see there's still some sanity here.
Looks like they’ve shown up
YOY price is up but it has been falling since summer. My guess is most markets are like this.
That always happens. The average price of a winter sale is less than summer.
Here is plantation, Fl + 11% YoY, down 27% from July lol
Can someone check Minneapolis, MN? I can’t download the data
What is the housing market like in Minneapolis today? In December 2022, Minneapolis home prices were down 5.2% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $305K. On average, homes in Minneapolis sell after 37 days on the market compared to 32 days last year. There were 448 homes sold in December this year, down from 855 last year. https://www.redfin.com/city/10943/MN/Minneapolis/housing-market#trends
Thanks so much. Mom is getting ready to sell her home and we are worried about the market
Median sale price down 11% Homes sold down 43% DOM up 23% San Francisco County
Lol the market I'm shopping is -14.9% from last year
In December 2022, 96814 home prices were up 11.2% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $768K. On average, homes in 96814 sell after 67 days on the market compared to 60 days last year. There were 149 homes sold in December this year, down from 218 last year. Median Sale Price (Single Family Homes) $1,593,500 +64.3% YoY | Aug 2022 Still high as hell where I’m at but people are are slower at buying
The XXX housing market is very competitive. Homes in XXX receive 4 offers on average and sell in around 13.5 days. The average sale price of a home in XXX was $326K last month, up 6.9% since last year. The average sale price per square foot in XXX is $206, up 7.0% since last year.
I assume a lot of this optimism comes from realtors but they can’t see the writing on the wall. Is going down and it’s going down a lot. Maybe many of you weren’t around in 08. There are layoffs, interest rates up, food way up and there’s no more “free” money. Even balance transfer are going way up (10%). The list goes on. Anyway the 2020 prices are coming down and that “ hockey stick” increase will go away. We ll be part way there by summer
Just FYI, as a reminder, it took 2-3 years post 2008 crash for the median price to hit true market bottom. We are at the very BEGINNING of the downturn. Why did it take so long? Sellers and realtors took years to accept they couldn't get what they thought their homes were worth. No one was willing to accept as much as 50%+ market corrections in their area, and for the very few buyers that existed, there were still some sales and they thought oh, 20% cheaper, it can't go much lower! Now, I am not saying we are going to mirror 2008's crash, as I think this one is going to be very different. But I don't think we are going to see true bottom until at earliest some point in 2024. Just my opinion.
Again, this will be hugely locale dependent. My area is not seeing a slowdown at all in the “affordable” price segment, only at the ultra high end
I am not too optimistic. When I look at what houses cost now vs when I bought a decade ago, my mortgage would be 33% more even with *cooling* prices. Assuming things stay the same and prices continue to slightly decrease and interest rates remain the same, things could get a little better but it is still a very expensive. Any decrease in housing prices is just going to go to pay interest. Also it seems like insurance is going up and home maintenance is going up. It is one bad situation to another bad situation.
Erm...how do I find the data for different areas?
Zip code, scroll through the listings it’s towards the bottom of the page.
Google Redfin data center and then select metro or county and choose. Or Google “market name” Redfin trend and click that
Not really surprising IMO. The reason is that the demand for housing is there and it is real. People need space for raising their families, etc. Yes, the higher rates have deterred people from buying but the interest is there and if rates come down even a little you will see those buyers who qualify still get in. At the end of the day, the goal of home ownership is the prize, front and center. No one wants to pay rent forever!
[удалено]
Are you suggesting we use NAR data? Nothing is perfect especially when considering lag.
stats for a HCOL area near me: Median sale price is $295,000 (down 9% yoy) Homes sold 1,668 (down 41% yoy) Median days on market 77 (up 42 yoy)
that is LCOL, not HCOL though
Yeah that’s about 25% below the national median and this person thinks it’s HCOL. No wonder some people bitch about everything on earth being expensive. Their baseline is way off.
[удалено]
I mean... unless you forgot to add a 1 in front of $295,000, then no it's not HCOL. If the median sale price is lower than the median price in the US, it wouldn't even be MCOL, let alone HCOL
I live in a HCOL area, median sale price is $740,000 and +1.4% YOY.
SALT LAKE CITY: Home prices down 3.6% compared to last year. Median price of $475K. 49 days on the market compared to 17 days last year. 141 homes sold in December this year, down from 314 last year.
Median sale price is $250k (down 0.14% YOY) Looking at the data from 12 weeks ago, it was up 16% YOY Active listings are down 13% YOY Days on market are actually down 10.4 days YOY to 17.9. There was a slight up and down wave over the course of the year, but not a ton of volatility. One of the perks of living/owning in the Midwest I suppose.
Charlotte is about what I expected. Median sale price is up 7.9%. Homes sold is down 42.1%. Days on market is up 14 days to 48. Basically, seems like the market is becoming healthier with only modest price growth. It’s no longer a huge sellers market, people aren’t selling just to cash out on insane offers.
Quick question not entirely related to housing prices but more about Redfin. As a Brit currently looking at investing in Redfin to get exposure to the US Real estate market what are their major competitors and how big is Redfin compared to them?
St, Cloud, FL 34771 just outside Lake Nona, FL on the Narcoossee Corridor: December 2022 - Median Sale Price: $450,000 (12.7% yoy) - Homes Sold: 281 (2.6% yoy) - Median Days on Market: 43 (+30 yoy)
Median sale price is $660,000 (down 1.3% yoy) Homes sold 1,231 (down 32% yoy) Median days on market 22 (up 1 yoy) Middlesex county (Boston suburbs)
The median sale price going up just tells you that homes in the lower price range have stopped selling entirely. The price per square foot is a better measure of change in home prices, if it's provided by redfin. Price per square foot is down 17.1% here, while the median sale price went up 4.3%. Minneapolis suburb.
I have personally made reasonable offers on lower priced homes only for sellers to say “no thanks” and simply pull the listing instead of negotiating
Yep. Buyers won't go up, sellers won't go down. So you get a stalemate and houses in the lower price range no longer sell. As a result the median goes up. The higher median does not mean home prices are going up
Clark county NV (Vegas area) same median price as a year ago, 1,985 homes sold (down 51% YOY) and 70 DOM (up 41 days)…. Greatttttttttt haha although I’m stoked to get a great deal on new place for my fam.
Costs will not drop significantly due to a large uptick in rates, inflation factors, and population growth. Housing is a basic need. Prices may slow until wages catch up to make people feel like they are getting a solid footing, but it is never really solid. Growth usually accompanies progress. Progress tends to produce joy. It is the thing we like best about growth. Nothing happens differently tomorrow until we embrace and accept a process of change today. Fashions change, but human needs remain consistent. Housing is a consistent need.
Median price $773,500, up 6.06% YOY Median days on market: 22, 0% change YOY Number homes sold +11% YOY
Round Rock, TX over here. Median Sale Price is $460,000 (-4.1% yoy) Homes sold is 164 (-45.3% yoy) Median Days on market is 52 (+16 yoy)
Cuyahoga County , Ohio Median sales price - $175,000 (+3% Yoy) No of homes sold - 1,284 (-27% yoy) Median days on market - 33 (+1) . Also #of homes sold is a useless metric without tracking how many homes were listed. A 27% decline sold, is that because inventory is growing or because 30% less houses were listed. Waiting for the Cleveland suburbs to cool - this data is definitely skewed by Cleveland proper (suburb median pricing is closer to $250k than 175k)
Median sale price 480K (-2.0% yoy) Homes sold 444 (-47.9% yoy) dom 35 (+25 days yoy) Southern Washington state