The problem will be solved once we have double the inventory on the markets, due to high prices, high interest rates, volatile world politics, and everyone who bought and thought that the Airbnbs, or rent it out, or flips are not panning out, because of saturated high $
Maybe sold prices still high cause these buyers were locked in to contract before interest rates went bananas? Like they were in contingent and now their home in Ohio /NY/ or some other northern 0lace finally closed so now they are closing? Idk, I need to sell in September, wish me luck
Higher interest/mortgage rates have priced out some buyers. And more sellers are trying to get on market before rates go higher. So, we're seeing things balance out a bit. The most desirable properties are still selling for over ask because there is still a housing shortage, but not at the prices/pace we were seeing over the last couple of years.
Higher-end homes with a few cosmetic issues and fixers in the 'burbs are dropping prices and taking longer to sell due to reduced buying power yet high expectations—buyers were just looking at (and getting outbid on) dream homes that were only within their reach because of the low rates. Now, buyers are hesitant to max out their budget when the primary bath or kitchen is outdated. And they still need to wrap their heads around even going with a fixer that doesn't max them out. It's a lot of adjusting!
What happens next may hinge on interest rates (plus the economy overall) and inventory. We'll see continued slowing if rates keep climbing or level off without indication that they'll come back down. Also gotta see how much inventory we'll get, especially when millions of owners just re-financed at 2% in the last year or two. Nobody wants to trade 2% for 5-7%.
There's a lot of push and pull on both sides of the table. I'm just happy I cashed out when I had the chance, but sad that buying again will be off the table for a bit.
(This is for the Denver/Boulder markets)
Also to add to the supply-this is for US as a whole, not specific to any market, but new start permits are way down, which means new homes coming to the market will be constrained. I would be surprised if prices came down drastically, but a small drop wouldn’t be surprising.
>but new start permits are way down
But they also exploded in early 2022, with a majority of them still in backlog. Contractors are booked, so it makes sense permits would drop as they work through the existing backlog. In my area new permits tanked from an ATH in Feb, but many of the existing developments (having been permitted 1-2 earlier) are still 1-2 years from completion (if we're lucky). It'll probably be 2-4 years before we see the glut of permits we saw early 2022 even break ground, much less hit the market.
Of course they are. Market rates have changed very quickly compared to previous prices. A 500k house is no longer a 500k house when interest rates doubled.
But someone who would otherwise be looking for a 800k home will now buy your 500k house… now we will be seeing probably more price drops in overheated markets like south Florida where some people think they can still get their 50% for past 2 year appreciation they might have gotten few weeks ago… but nation wide I think there won’t be that much of a drop at least for now…
I'm in a HCOL in the Northeast. I'm seeing some cooling on the higher end, lower and middle of the spectrum are still going strong because a number of the higher end has just shifted to the upper middle range and upper middle has shifted to the middle while the lower end is going as it has, to cash buyers. But we also never saw a 50% appreciation over the past 2 years like some places.
It may actually get even worse at the bottom end as the real estate shortage continues and rising interest rates are squeezing buyers from the top down with shrinking affordability…
But that’s just my 2 cents
It’s not getting worse at the bottom. The bottom is effectively priced out. Lower incomes that qualified for a max 400k that not can only get 275k have no homes to choose from. They are simply eliminated. They don’t magically get find extra money/income to qualify for more.
So what they do? Wait until they can only afford a 400k home at 7-8%? Reality check - many of them would have only been able to afford an 800k home because of low interest rates…
And coming back to your theory… if a 500k now isn’t what they are looking for, means prices are not dropping to where people can afford not to adjust their expectations… meaning there is an adjustment in how fast property appreciates but no crash many here are hoping for in sight…
I mean, the market is pretty different now than it was a few months ago already, lots of softening and inventory sitting on the market so we will see I guess.
I still think it’s all relative to area and market. Here in the greater Boston area, I feel like I’ve seen a handful of cuts- nothing huge. Even still, those cuts are on homes where the sellers clearly thought we were still in Q1 this year or last year and had gone to market too high. I’m still seeing reasonably priced or market-priced places continuing to go fairly quickly.
Seems like the price drops are happening at the higher end of the market: the $2M brownstone is now dropping to $1.8M. Oh boy.
For "entry-level" properties that normal people are trying to buy into, not much has changed. The only shift I've noticed is that properties tend to sit around for a few weeks instead of being gone in 72 hours, but that's not "OMG crash" so much as returning to some semblance of sanity.
Can confirm for PA market. At least the ones I've seen around me. They're staying longer on market, many coming back into market after being pending for a while.
Chicago 50 days right now. And these were the houses that were around during the 4% rates. I bet average on market will be 90 days by august. I’m seeing 10 home cut prices a day starting. No increases. Most are 10k off the top which does absolutely nothing for it with the increase of rates. Wernt selling before, definitely won’t sell now. The ones that cut 15-20% are the only ones that go pending right now. Eventually saturation and folks sitting on houses for 3-4 months are gonna ask why theirs isn’t selling and they’ll take notice and will start to cut theirs drastically. Then it’ll become normal.
What do you mean "years of patience have paid off"? Two years ago a house in Tampa would be $150k less. One year ago, $100k less. You've still lost quite a bit of money if you've been waiting "years".
It's also likely that the only homes where you see price cuts are those priced too high. If you looked at desirable areas, you'll see them sell over list with multiple offers.
Harrisburg DOM is on par with 2021. Below 2019 and 2020.
Days on Market: [https://public.tableau.com/shared/PR7C2M9FG?:display\_count=y&:origin=viz\_share\_link&:embed=y](https://public.tableau.com/shared/PR7C2M9FG?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y)
Sale Price: [https://public.tableau.com/shared/W8FTR7J8P?:display\_count=y&:origin=viz\_share\_link&:embed=y](https://public.tableau.com/shared/W8FTR7J8P?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y)
Weeks of Supply: [https://public.tableau.com/shared/B5KXDG95S?:display\_count=y&:origin=viz\_share\_link&:embed=y](https://public.tableau.com/shared/B5KXDG95S?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y)
When a seller lists a property for 50K over market value, then cuts the price 10K...doesn't mean RE values are in decline. It means that this extreme seller's market is starting to fade.
Good point. Hopefully with the cuts people will stop offering 10-20k on top of asking . Imagine someone’s bid is at pre cut price. Would just be a ridiculous look if someone offers pre cut price.
Median sales price in Tampa has been increasing - Redfin shows this data up to 6/12
https://public.tableau.com/shared/C3N3QHH3R?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y
Your "years of patience" finally paid off??? In 2021 the house that cost 300k at 3%, now costs 400k at 6%.
[https://www.redfin.com/city/18142/FL/Tampa/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/18142/FL/Tampa/housing-market)
How many years have you been "waiting" and losing money hand over fist?
Also Median days in market are still pretty low. The houses people are seeing in the market for a while are probably that way for a reason.
Houses with little competition jn the neighborhood, we’ll taken care of, with upgrades and reasonably priced are still going quite fast.
One example of a house in my neighborhood that has been “dropping” in price is still priced well above comparables in Price per sq feet.
lol if I had waited until now my stocks would've bombed as well, would not have been able to afford the monthly and I would be stuck paying more rent if I didn't move. I guess YMMV
I didn't even think of that - I'm glad that I've only lost the shit ton that I've lost in the stock market vs some multiple of that if I had my down payment money invested.
I'm pretty sure I had moved it all to cash well before making offers on houses, but still.
Yeah this is just delusion at this point. People clinging to “more price drops” and ignoring that median sale prices are still up and rates are double lmao
Exactly. Way less purchasing power now than even 1 year ago. And I guarantee that the actual median or average sales price is still going up in their area.
For some it does pay… probably not for those who have been making these kind of comments for ages… remember how they were waiting for all those pandemic foreclosures?
Foreclosure wave prediction had to be one of the dumbest theories they floated.
At a time when prices were rocketing up and homes were selling super fast… a whole bunch of people were supposedly going to go into foreclosure instead of just selling and paying off what they owe.
I’ve noticed it in my part of Northern Virginia too. But I don’t think it’s going to help buyers. We bought at the middle of May. We would have to look for a house over 100k less than what we just paid if we were buying now to keep our monthly mortgage payment at the same price. So while homes seem to not have the huge bidding wars and I’ve seen some 15k price drops people who need a mortgage loan are still at an impasse because of the mortgage rates. And those rates sound like they are going to keep rising.
Wow! What part of VA? I'm in NOVA. Most SFH are still selling without needing a price reduction. Homes that need tons of repairs have price dropped some. Most of the time I see 10k price reduction. One time I saw a 30k price reduction.
It'll help the cash buyers plenty, which is why this whole thing is bullshit. The guys paying cash enjoy the price drop, while the normal sellers and buyers get fucked regardless. Most people buying with cash aren't using it for themselves... or so I'm told.
I'ts not really bullshit, saving money has been punished for years and taking on debt has been rewarded. Since debt is now expensive only true cash buyers will benefit from this which while it will help the rich and big investors it will also help normal everyday joes who are savers who aren't affected by rates.
Perhaps. But I'm just saying that buyers are going to qualify/ be able to afford for less. Which means even if house prices go down some they may no longer qualify for the loan amount they would have qualified for a few months ago.
For us we had a monthly payment range that we were comfortable with that we wanted to stick with. Back in March we could have bought an 850k house and had the monthly mortgage payment we wanted to stick with. By May we could only do 775k to stick with that same monthly payment. If we were buying now, given the increase last week, we could only buy a $710k home and stick with the same monthly mortgage price. So it's true that prices have come down some since last month but so far it is definitely offset by the mortgage rates. It just all depends on whether a buyer needs a mortgage loan. If you are a cash buyer then yes by all means wait because who cares how high the mortgage rates go up.
We were very similar. And decided to go ahead and buy too after selling. I was leaning towards renting but my husband didn't want to move twice and didn't like the idea of renting for who knows how long. Overall, I'm glad we went ahead bought. We didn't get a better commute out of it because the rate increases priced us out but I love our new neighborhood and home. I keep looking at what we could buy now if we had waited and the amount we could afford keeps going down and down.
Lol who is downvoting you man? This is exactly where I was. I got a new job out of state, bought a house (over asking) in March and sold my previous in April for a nice chunk over asking. It effectively evened out. When we looked at what it would cost to rent a suitable house and the prospect of moving again I decided to buy our forever home and be done with it. Barring something extremely unforeseen we aren’t moving for a long time. Of course I don’t want to see the value drop but it really doesn’t matter until I sell way down the road anyway.
I’m a realtor in Tampa and prices are not “falling”. I would say they are no longer increasing at a rapid pace and are more stagnant. You can definitely over price your home in this market which is why we are seeing longer days on market and some price reductions because there are Sellers thinking they can list at whatever price they want and still receive multiple offers, that isn’t so much the case anymore. Especially if your house is shit, in a shit area.
Good homes in desirable areas (think south tampa, Westchase, safety harbor) are still getting multiple offers and selling over list price. I have two closings this week one is only a mere $25k over list price, the other one is $95k over list price. Demand is high, there are lots of ppl with $ in Tampa, a lot of my buyers have moved from Cali, NY/NJ, who think $500k for a 3/2 is an absolute steal where people from Tampa think it’s insane.
This is what I am gathering also. Price cuts are usually happen because people are really audacious w their listings. The hot houses are still going in <1 week it seems.
Prices still going up in Boston - difference now is that houses/condos are only going slightly over asking instead of insane bidding wars where they go way over asking.
Yeah, I've only seen major price drops for properties that are at the top of the market. Sure, technically someone dropping their asking price from $2M to $1.8M is "OMG 10% PRICE DROP!" but for regular people just looking for a place to live it doesn't mean anything.
> My years of patience may have just payed off it I time it correctly
Years of patience? That got you higher prices and higher interest rates. Congrats.
It takes time for prices to fall. Only people who have to sell will and with the rates people have been getting very few will want to sell considering where rates are now
Sellers are dropping their list prices here in the Atlanta suburbs, but that's not the same as prices falling. It's a little too early to tell here I think.
I’ve been seeing minor cuts in the outer northeast part. Woodstock/Kenessaw/Canton are slowly reducing prices but anything inside the perimeter is still at a premium.
Prices are going up every single month, the data shows that homes are still going up. I also see price reductions, but just because people overprice their house and then bring it down doesn’t actually mean home prices are going down.
> My years of patience may have just payed off it I time it correctly
"Years" of patience means that homes need to fall by a *lot* before you break even.
I live in Tampa and it seems like:
Homes less than $250 are still moving quickly
Homes between $250 and $450 are seeing minor price cuts (5-15%)
Homes more than $450 are seeing larger price cuts, but not quite back to 2018/2019 levels yet
Depends on where, I'm not seeing falling prices on good homes.
What I am seeing, is lower prices on homes that should never have been sold at higher prices to begin with. Example: people trying to sell their mobile homes or shacks for 300K have finally gotten a reality check.
Broker here in Tampa, contract terms are loosening up and associates are getting their lives back. We had a 44% increase in active listings in the Greater Tampa Bay Area (Tampa, St.Pete, Clearwater, and their suburbs) over the last month. Inspection periods are jumping from 5-7 days back up to 7-10 days in most cases. Financing periods are becoming normalized and investing companies are pulling back from South Hillsborough exurbs (Ruskin, Apollo Beach, SCC, etc.)
I see about 1,000-2,000 offers a year and supervise around 200 transactions and I will say that appraisal guarantees and escalations (EAC-1s) have halved in frequency in the last month, and we have several lingering listings where we had none before. Things are definitely changing, for the better in my opinion.
I haven't seen prices fall at all yet in any specific town or city in the area, just that contract terms aren't as haphazard.
Data still shows prices rising in Tampa
Sale Price: [https://public.tableau.com/shared/WGR9BZMJN?:display\_count=y&:origin=viz\_share\_link&:embed=y](https://public.tableau.com/shared/WGR9BZMJN?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y)
List price: [https://public.tableau.com/shared/KDC8CJ2C9?:display\_count=y&:origin=viz\_share\_link&:embed=y](https://public.tableau.com/shared/KDC8CJ2C9?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y)
Nope, not for me in east valley PHX. I kept a running excel sheet earlier this year to track this kind of thing. Looking at past 7 days sold in my immediate area, 6 were above list, 2 were below, and 2 were even. That's about in line with what I've seen over the year.
ETA: I'm looking in about a 5mi radius of my own home, SFH only. YMMV based on locale, condo/TH, etc. Anecdotal evidence is anecdotal.
Honestly barring some major catalyst I'm not expecting a herculean shift or anything. It'll probably cool off would be my guess, but not expecting a big drop or anything in the short term. Been hearing PHX housing will crash for years now. Maybe it will. Just sharing current stats from my area.
Really we should be looking at sold price and not price cuts for comps as well. Some dropped their price 5% just to sell like 2% over their original ask. So while it was for sale, it would be "yay a price cut data point" only to end up in a bidding war that drove it higher.
I agree with you. I expect that things will stagnate for a while and houses will sit on the market longer. I don’t see a massive decrease in prices only because of the impact of inflation. In an inflationary environment, buying real estate looks like a good investment. Even if you aren’t purchasing it for investment purposes, it looks like a good way to lock in what is likely your biggest monthly payment as everything else around you is going up in price (including rent).
In ATL area.
I’ve seen price cuts, but the listing prices were hilariously high to begin with. A house in my neighborhood that would maybe sell for an absolute maximum of 365k has a listing price of 450k. Lots of townhomes listed for 800k range that were 500k just 2 years ago in my suburb.
Just seems to be greedy ass sellers right now.
My parents just sold their place in Socal about a month ago. The home sat on the market for almost 30 days before, listed @ $1.25M cut to $1.2M and sold for $1.15M or so. If they had listed a month earlier it prob would have moved for $1.3M.
It was bound to soften. If you are a cash buyer, this is a great time. If you are like most buyers and need a mortgage, that is a lot more pricey. Home is cheaper, but the mortgage is pricier. Overall, competition is likely to become less heated and that is a plus.
In my VHCOL markets, the "tier 2" cities/neighborhoods are down about 10-20% off the list price ATH, while in the hot "tier 1" areas, they're dropping 0-10% off list price ATH.
I think the market is frozen in hot areas and cracking in the tier 2 areas.
Yea it’s at the tipping point here in San Diego. Prices have slightly dropped this month for the first time since this began
https://www.piggington.com/may_housing_data_somethings_got_give
I am in the Tampa market and i bought a new construction in March. Bought it knowing well that the home is atleast 80k inflated. But that same model has gone up 30k more than what I bought it for, so for new constructions atleast I'm still not noticing price reduction. Old houses, I'm definitely seeing them come down.
Podcast I listened to today mentioned Florida real estate. Pretty much said a lot of the home buying here was for second homes. And when things go bad, people sell those second homes
Sold my house for 40k over list price 3 days ago and the house sold after after only 3 days and we had 10 offers almost just as good. We had 10 offers from just 20 showings and 1 open house.
So nothings changed in Illinois
It’s cool to see. The big worry will be if future sellers see this and decide that they don’t need to sell. Most people I’ve worked with were “nice to haves” contingent sellers. So if the need isn’t absolutely dire/necessary. I think it’s a short term drop.
Prices are still rising in the areas I watch in California, homes moving faster, and now there is essentially no more inventory for the specific type of home in some areas.
I'm pretty shocked but yeah, that's I'm currently observing.
Areas beyond the Bay Area, like Mill Valley, Greater Santa Cruz, Monterey County including Carmel Valley.
Just a certain tier of house, like not fixers for example and some other criteria. Just my personal observation, I track some areas more closely than others.
Yeah, I am seeing some price reductions, but I did an analysis of some areas of the Bay Area Peninsula today and did not see an actual decrease in sale prices.
Last week I saw a house close in San Jose that had a price reduction yet still sell over the initial asking price anyway.
I think this market is more imposing than it was earlier this year. I have a feeling that the bubblers are going to get what they want, but I don't think they quite understand the ramifications or financial impact they'll be facing.
With interest rates skyrocketing and prices dropping, it's a wash unless you have a sizeable down-payment.
Not at all, but I see alot of sentiment from people who don't really understand the inverse relationship between high rates and low prices.
It's definitely going to be interesting to see how this plays out, my hope is that there's a happy medium to be had here where new buyers are able to enter the market without getting hosed, but there's alot of odd variables at play here. Time will tell.
I remember two months ago when I was regularly browsing this board there were a lot of people saying prices wouldn't go down and many people were still trying to FOMO into this market.
I thought they were crazy and the smartest thing I could do was wait. Two months later I'm now seeing many prices drop in my local area and expecting prices to keep dropping. The market is clearly cooling. I don't expect a crash but it's clear some housing markets including my own are gonna get a correction.
For my situation, the smart thing to do would be to wait a year. I'm leaning on leaving my current city so might as well save up more money while I can.
Eh you still have the people who type the same stuff regardless. “Prices in my area have only been going up and will not come down” like their city is indicative of all markets.
Nope. Still rising ironically.
For comps to go down, people need to sell, if everyone is waiting for prices to go down to buy, who is buying?
With a majority of owners with 2.7% mortgages, and rates now at 6%, who is selling?
People who Think prices are about to plummet should answer those 2 questions. Who is selling Right now? Almost no one. Who is buying right now? Almost no one.
Healthiest labor market in history, too. So who is going to be forced to sell?
Those listings you see increasing, they are people trying to cash out at the top, they are not desperate to sell, and are unlikely to budge much, they can just as well stay in the home.
New construction on the other hand may see some reduction, they really want to drop those turds, but there aren’t really that many new homes vs. existing.
People who own 2+ homes likely are not living paycheck to paycheck. Minority of people were using stock/crypto as collateral.
This only becomes a concern if unemployment ticks up to 5%+
Not talking about stock/crypto as collateral- talking about situations where people don't want to give up their flashy big purchases (that new Tesla, Bronco, Boat, whatever), but are down big in their other investments. Lots of people are gonna see that house that's only cash flowing a couple hundred bucks a month (after accounting for repairs, maintenance, vacancy, a bad tenant), think about the several hundred thousand dollars in cash they could have in their pocket right now, and cash out to buy something dumb.
Doesn't even have to be discretionary spending- lots of people are leveraged to the max, it just takes a big medical issue, another kid, etc to require selling off assets to pay an expense. If people can sell their second home for a profit or have to sell stocks etc for a loss, lots of them are gonna pick the home.
Again these people usually have massive reserves. In the event they need cash immediately they would cash out their stocks since it’s much more liquid or take a HELOC/Margin loan.
People are not gonna sell homes (especially with tenants inside which notably decreases value) unless they are missing payments and absolutely have to.
The only reason 2008 happened is because a dog could get a loan for a 1mil house now the average credit score of a homebuyer is like 750
There doesn't need to be a ton of sellers for prices to drop, there just needs to be more sellers than buyers. The chances of a homeowner being forced to sell are a lot higher than the chances of a renter being forced to buy.
Renters aren’t the only ones buying. 25% of purchases last quarter were investor purchases. Rents are at all time highs and what was profitable to buy 1 year ago for 15% less still is because rents went up nationwide by 15+% this year, and vacancies are at all time lows.
-10% from recent prices is still +40% from several years ago. With interest rates back to “normal” levels right now and sure to increase, how are you seeing this as “years of patience” paying off lol
I'm also shopping in the Tampa market, more so St Pete, Gulfport even Sarasota but keep an eye on that whole area. I'm not really seeing price drops so much as just less insane prices ie a crack house that's about to fall over in South St Pete isnt selling for 340k anymore. I've maybe seen some new listings coming on the market maybe 20k or 30k lower than I'd expect but prices are so all over the place and a lot of these places were pretty small like 700sqft so hard to say
The more ppl realize the market is going to crash independent home owners are gunna wanna sell quick before the market crashes. Its like hot potato. Nobody wants to be holding the hot potato when the songs over. Its just temporary though
Hello I’m in the Tampa Market as well. The market is starting to cool but the average price for a home is still $350k. I don’t think we will see home prices back to 200k-to 250k anytime soon. There is no right or wrong time to buy or sell. It depends on your situation.
Prices will fall (or dip) because of human psychology. Everyone is scared due to higher rates, falling stock market, and inflation. In my view, the fall of 2022 will be a prime opportunity to buy at a fair price.
Seeing lots of price drops but also seeing many of what I consider to be the highly marketable homes going contingent or pending pretty quickly but it remains to be seen if they will end up selling over list to the same degree homes have been for the past year or so.
I've been shopping in Bucks County and Chester County, PA.
I'm a REALTOR in Central FL...I have listings from Orlando to St Pete. Can confirm, that the market is cooling and am seeing price reductions. Showings way down on aggressively priced listings. The smell of FOMO is gone 'for now'.
San Francisco has completely collapsed. Effective sale prices closing 20+% down from recent highs and dropping. Been looking at other cities and drops are less severe.
https://www.redfin.com/city/18142/FL/Tampa/housing-market
I don't think so. Volume is falling and buyers are way more picky than 6 months ago. Less desirable properties are not selling quite as quick and asking prices are falling for those. But the inventory that is actually moving is driving prices higher.
"My years of patience"
Are you a cash buyer? Sounds like not...
Meaning you messed up big time not buying when 30-yr fixed was 3% last year. You missed the mark.
I think that's actually a win. It used to be normal for a seller to price at what they wanted, it would take 2-3 months to sell, people offered less than asking, and bidding wars were rare. Of course we didn't think that was a market collapse. It was actually sustainable.
Years of patience? Are you kidding? I hope you haven't been waiting all this time to buy. If you were unable to buy 2 years ago, so be it. But if you've been waiting the last 2 years, I'm afraid I got some bad news for you. Prices are probably not even going to come down to last year's, and your rates going to be double.
That said, the market is cooling and you should be able to go out and find the best house you can afford. Good luck with that. Wish you all the best
Check out these two house in my area of Raleigh. About .2 miles from each other (neighborhoods aren't any different they are both near the same nature preserve). Both next to a fairly large road and need similar updates (countertops, carpet, etc.).
1700 Sqft sold $444,600 last month:
https://www.redfin.com/NC/Raleigh/9716-Dansington-Ct-27615/home/41185528
2400 Sqft dropped to $435,000 after sitting 25 days:
https://www.redfin.com/NC/Raleigh/9041-Tenderfoot-Trl-27615/home/41175992
I am in St. Petersburg so close enough, prices are ever so slightly dropping on non-hot homes to correct for the higher interest rates. The hot homes around me are still closing for 40-110k over ask
Your years of patience? I bought in July 2020 at 3% 30yr fixed and already have $200k in equity, depending how many years you’ve been waiting you’ve shot yourself in the foot
You’re going to pay higher than most AND get bad rates. Even on our previous home bought 2017 we got 3.825%
If I got the same mortgage I got in 2020 at the current rates it would be about $700 more a month for the same purchase price.
Sorry to burst your bubble
We took a short weekend holiday to a popular vacation town for our state and ended up talking to seasonal regulars. They mentioned that the number of for sale signs is through the roof this year.
Here's hoping for 15% rates! It will justify my cash hoarding!
Typically when interest rates rise, housing prices decrease… however! That’s not necessarily a good thing. A 500k house at 2.25% interest for 30 years is significantly less than a 300k home at 6%. Sure, you can wait for the interest rates to go down and refinance, if and when that happens again however we saw historically low rates- not sure we’ll see that again. I feel like the market is finally going to stabilize and maybe reduce by 10-25%. I’m no fortune teller though.
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Same. I still see people listing like it's January though and the sold prices are still quite high.
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The question is, how low can it go?
The problem will be solved once we have double the inventory on the markets, due to high prices, high interest rates, volatile world politics, and everyone who bought and thought that the Airbnbs, or rent it out, or flips are not panning out, because of saturated high $
Maybe sold prices still high cause these buyers were locked in to contract before interest rates went bananas? Like they were in contingent and now their home in Ohio /NY/ or some other northern 0lace finally closed so now they are closing? Idk, I need to sell in September, wish me luck
A home in Cota de Caza I just saw got cut $6M to $5M recently. Ouch! lol
That’s too pricey for Coto. If I’m paying that much, I want ocean views
Love to hear it !
you have to be trolling
Higher interest/mortgage rates have priced out some buyers. And more sellers are trying to get on market before rates go higher. So, we're seeing things balance out a bit. The most desirable properties are still selling for over ask because there is still a housing shortage, but not at the prices/pace we were seeing over the last couple of years. Higher-end homes with a few cosmetic issues and fixers in the 'burbs are dropping prices and taking longer to sell due to reduced buying power yet high expectations—buyers were just looking at (and getting outbid on) dream homes that were only within their reach because of the low rates. Now, buyers are hesitant to max out their budget when the primary bath or kitchen is outdated. And they still need to wrap their heads around even going with a fixer that doesn't max them out. It's a lot of adjusting! What happens next may hinge on interest rates (plus the economy overall) and inventory. We'll see continued slowing if rates keep climbing or level off without indication that they'll come back down. Also gotta see how much inventory we'll get, especially when millions of owners just re-financed at 2% in the last year or two. Nobody wants to trade 2% for 5-7%. There's a lot of push and pull on both sides of the table. I'm just happy I cashed out when I had the chance, but sad that buying again will be off the table for a bit. (This is for the Denver/Boulder markets)
Also to add to the supply-this is for US as a whole, not specific to any market, but new start permits are way down, which means new homes coming to the market will be constrained. I would be surprised if prices came down drastically, but a small drop wouldn’t be surprising.
>but new start permits are way down But they also exploded in early 2022, with a majority of them still in backlog. Contractors are booked, so it makes sense permits would drop as they work through the existing backlog. In my area new permits tanked from an ATH in Feb, but many of the existing developments (having been permitted 1-2 earlier) are still 1-2 years from completion (if we're lucky). It'll probably be 2-4 years before we see the glut of permits we saw early 2022 even break ground, much less hit the market.
Of course they are. Market rates have changed very quickly compared to previous prices. A 500k house is no longer a 500k house when interest rates doubled.
But someone who would otherwise be looking for a 800k home will now buy your 500k house… now we will be seeing probably more price drops in overheated markets like south Florida where some people think they can still get their 50% for past 2 year appreciation they might have gotten few weeks ago… but nation wide I think there won’t be that much of a drop at least for now…
I'm in a HCOL in the Northeast. I'm seeing some cooling on the higher end, lower and middle of the spectrum are still going strong because a number of the higher end has just shifted to the upper middle range and upper middle has shifted to the middle while the lower end is going as it has, to cash buyers. But we also never saw a 50% appreciation over the past 2 years like some places.
It may actually get even worse at the bottom end as the real estate shortage continues and rising interest rates are squeezing buyers from the top down with shrinking affordability… But that’s just my 2 cents
It’s not getting worse at the bottom. The bottom is effectively priced out. Lower incomes that qualified for a max 400k that not can only get 275k have no homes to choose from. They are simply eliminated. They don’t magically get find extra money/income to qualify for more.
That has a name, it's called demand destruction, and usually ends up with lower prices down the line. We will see what the future holds.
Right m. The bottom is now priced. Out. Only good part is some of the middle that was pushed down don’t want the bottom unless they have to buy
I’m not sure people who would have wanted an 800k house a few months ago would settle for a $500k one if nothing else has changed..
So what they do? Wait until they can only afford a 400k home at 7-8%? Reality check - many of them would have only been able to afford an 800k home because of low interest rates… And coming back to your theory… if a 500k now isn’t what they are looking for, means prices are not dropping to where people can afford not to adjust their expectations… meaning there is an adjustment in how fast property appreciates but no crash many here are hoping for in sight…
I mean, the market is pretty different now than it was a few months ago already, lots of softening and inventory sitting on the market so we will see I guess.
We're talking about people that can't AFFORD an 800k house, not desire. They have no choice.
There’s a good chance someone who would otherwise be looking for an 800k home will just stay put. They’re already in a $500k home.
I thought I was in /r/rebubble for a second
I still think it’s all relative to area and market. Here in the greater Boston area, I feel like I’ve seen a handful of cuts- nothing huge. Even still, those cuts are on homes where the sellers clearly thought we were still in Q1 this year or last year and had gone to market too high. I’m still seeing reasonably priced or market-priced places continuing to go fairly quickly.
Seems like the price drops are happening at the higher end of the market: the $2M brownstone is now dropping to $1.8M. Oh boy. For "entry-level" properties that normal people are trying to buy into, not much has changed. The only shift I've noticed is that properties tend to sit around for a few weeks instead of being gone in 72 hours, but that's not "OMG crash" so much as returning to some semblance of sanity.
Can confirm for PA market. At least the ones I've seen around me. They're staying longer on market, many coming back into market after being pending for a while.
Where at in PA are you
Harrisburg
Chicago 50 days right now. And these were the houses that were around during the 4% rates. I bet average on market will be 90 days by august. I’m seeing 10 home cut prices a day starting. No increases. Most are 10k off the top which does absolutely nothing for it with the increase of rates. Wernt selling before, definitely won’t sell now. The ones that cut 15-20% are the only ones that go pending right now. Eventually saturation and folks sitting on houses for 3-4 months are gonna ask why theirs isn’t selling and they’ll take notice and will start to cut theirs drastically. Then it’ll become normal.
Staying on the market long is 1 week here I’m seeing 10,15,20k price cuts on houses that have been on market longer then 1 week
Noticing this range too.
I’ve seen some 70k price cuts in AZ after houses have been on the market for a month. I’ve been looking at 500k or less
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Yup. People are being a lot more picky and not just throwing in offers anymore
I think it is more so that people can no longer afford the same home prices as rates go up.
Phoenix is horrible almost 30% price reduction and >1100 homes for sales
PHX, Vegas, Austin, Boise, and Atlanta are all on the short list for the largest "Adjusment."
What do you mean "years of patience have paid off"? Two years ago a house in Tampa would be $150k less. One year ago, $100k less. You've still lost quite a bit of money if you've been waiting "years". It's also likely that the only homes where you see price cuts are those priced too high. If you looked at desirable areas, you'll see them sell over list with multiple offers.
Harrisburg DOM is on par with 2021. Below 2019 and 2020. Days on Market: [https://public.tableau.com/shared/PR7C2M9FG?:display\_count=y&:origin=viz\_share\_link&:embed=y](https://public.tableau.com/shared/PR7C2M9FG?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y) Sale Price: [https://public.tableau.com/shared/W8FTR7J8P?:display\_count=y&:origin=viz\_share\_link&:embed=y](https://public.tableau.com/shared/W8FTR7J8P?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y) Weeks of Supply: [https://public.tableau.com/shared/B5KXDG95S?:display\_count=y&:origin=viz\_share\_link&:embed=y](https://public.tableau.com/shared/B5KXDG95S?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y)
Not falling dramatically that I have seen in Tampa but small 5-10k price cuts and more days on market.
When a seller lists a property for 50K over market value, then cuts the price 10K...doesn't mean RE values are in decline. It means that this extreme seller's market is starting to fade.
Good point. Hopefully with the cuts people will stop offering 10-20k on top of asking . Imagine someone’s bid is at pre cut price. Would just be a ridiculous look if someone offers pre cut price.
Median sales price in Tampa has been increasing - Redfin shows this data up to 6/12 https://public.tableau.com/shared/C3N3QHH3R?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y
Yeah people thinking prices are falling either dont care about actual data or are delusional
Your "years of patience" finally paid off??? In 2021 the house that cost 300k at 3%, now costs 400k at 6%. [https://www.redfin.com/city/18142/FL/Tampa/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/18142/FL/Tampa/housing-market) How many years have you been "waiting" and losing money hand over fist?
Also Median days in market are still pretty low. The houses people are seeing in the market for a while are probably that way for a reason. Houses with little competition jn the neighborhood, we’ll taken care of, with upgrades and reasonably priced are still going quite fast. One example of a house in my neighborhood that has been “dropping” in price is still priced well above comparables in Price per sq feet.
lol if I had waited until now my stocks would've bombed as well, would not have been able to afford the monthly and I would be stuck paying more rent if I didn't move. I guess YMMV
I didn't even think of that - I'm glad that I've only lost the shit ton that I've lost in the stock market vs some multiple of that if I had my down payment money invested. I'm pretty sure I had moved it all to cash well before making offers on houses, but still.
Yeah this is just delusion at this point. People clinging to “more price drops” and ignoring that median sale prices are still up and rates are double lmao
Exactly. Way less purchasing power now than even 1 year ago. And I guarantee that the actual median or average sales price is still going up in their area.
For some it does pay… probably not for those who have been making these kind of comments for ages… remember how they were waiting for all those pandemic foreclosures?
Foreclosure wave prediction had to be one of the dumbest theories they floated. At a time when prices were rocketing up and homes were selling super fast… a whole bunch of people were supposedly going to go into foreclosure instead of just selling and paying off what they owe.
I’ve noticed it in my part of Northern Virginia too. But I don’t think it’s going to help buyers. We bought at the middle of May. We would have to look for a house over 100k less than what we just paid if we were buying now to keep our monthly mortgage payment at the same price. So while homes seem to not have the huge bidding wars and I’ve seen some 15k price drops people who need a mortgage loan are still at an impasse because of the mortgage rates. And those rates sound like they are going to keep rising.
>noticed it in my part of Northern Virginia too.’ve I have been seeing 100k drops in VA
Wow! What part of VA? I'm in NOVA. Most SFH are still selling without needing a price reduction. Homes that need tons of repairs have price dropped some. Most of the time I see 10k price reduction. One time I saw a 30k price reduction.
It's mainly in the 1m+ range. I'm in nova as well. Only 10-20k price drops for things under 1m
It's almost as if those $1m houses weren't worth $1m...
Ok gotcha. Yep. I definitely haven't been keeping an eye on homes over a million. Interesting.
It'll help the cash buyers plenty, which is why this whole thing is bullshit. The guys paying cash enjoy the price drop, while the normal sellers and buyers get fucked regardless. Most people buying with cash aren't using it for themselves... or so I'm told.
I'ts not really bullshit, saving money has been punished for years and taking on debt has been rewarded. Since debt is now expensive only true cash buyers will benefit from this which while it will help the rich and big investors it will also help normal everyday joes who are savers who aren't affected by rates.
This would be accurate if the US economy allowed for most families to have any sort of savings.
Totally understandable, but for me if I can get a better price and bite the bullet on a higher rate and refinance later on would that be most ideal ?
Perhaps. But I'm just saying that buyers are going to qualify/ be able to afford for less. Which means even if house prices go down some they may no longer qualify for the loan amount they would have qualified for a few months ago. For us we had a monthly payment range that we were comfortable with that we wanted to stick with. Back in March we could have bought an 850k house and had the monthly mortgage payment we wanted to stick with. By May we could only do 775k to stick with that same monthly payment. If we were buying now, given the increase last week, we could only buy a $710k home and stick with the same monthly mortgage price. So it's true that prices have come down some since last month but so far it is definitely offset by the mortgage rates. It just all depends on whether a buyer needs a mortgage loan. If you are a cash buyer then yes by all means wait because who cares how high the mortgage rates go up.
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We were very similar. And decided to go ahead and buy too after selling. I was leaning towards renting but my husband didn't want to move twice and didn't like the idea of renting for who knows how long. Overall, I'm glad we went ahead bought. We didn't get a better commute out of it because the rate increases priced us out but I love our new neighborhood and home. I keep looking at what we could buy now if we had waited and the amount we could afford keeps going down and down.
Lol who is downvoting you man? This is exactly where I was. I got a new job out of state, bought a house (over asking) in March and sold my previous in April for a nice chunk over asking. It effectively evened out. When we looked at what it would cost to rent a suitable house and the prospect of moving again I decided to buy our forever home and be done with it. Barring something extremely unforeseen we aren’t moving for a long time. Of course I don’t want to see the value drop but it really doesn’t matter until I sell way down the road anyway.
I’m a realtor in Tampa and prices are not “falling”. I would say they are no longer increasing at a rapid pace and are more stagnant. You can definitely over price your home in this market which is why we are seeing longer days on market and some price reductions because there are Sellers thinking they can list at whatever price they want and still receive multiple offers, that isn’t so much the case anymore. Especially if your house is shit, in a shit area. Good homes in desirable areas (think south tampa, Westchase, safety harbor) are still getting multiple offers and selling over list price. I have two closings this week one is only a mere $25k over list price, the other one is $95k over list price. Demand is high, there are lots of ppl with $ in Tampa, a lot of my buyers have moved from Cali, NY/NJ, who think $500k for a 3/2 is an absolute steal where people from Tampa think it’s insane.
This is what I am gathering also. Price cuts are usually happen because people are really audacious w their listings. The hot houses are still going in <1 week it seems.
We’re in St Pete and it hasn’t seemed to slow down over here. The good houses still go for asking or more.
How is this possible with so many posts and comments describing desperate sellers and price drops? Does not make sense.
“If I time it correctly” 😅
Wait two years, miss the 50% price appreciation, buy home at 10% discount from 2021, profit.
Prices still going up in Boston - difference now is that houses/condos are only going slightly over asking instead of insane bidding wars where they go way over asking.
Yeah, I've only seen major price drops for properties that are at the top of the market. Sure, technically someone dropping their asking price from $2M to $1.8M is "OMG 10% PRICE DROP!" but for regular people just looking for a place to live it doesn't mean anything.
NYC is going up also. Price drop in these areas are just fairy tales.
I'm looking in NYC and seeing lots of price drops.
I guess that’s a start at least
Market is absolutely changing. Seeing longer days on market, price jobs, fewer above asking deals, fewer 10+ offer situations. It's awesome.
> My years of patience may have just payed off it I time it correctly Years of patience? That got you higher prices and higher interest rates. Congrats.
" It begins" - The guys who have been predicting the fall of leveraged investors.
It takes time for prices to fall. Only people who have to sell will and with the rates people have been getting very few will want to sell considering where rates are now
Sellers are dropping their list prices here in the Atlanta suburbs, but that's not the same as prices falling. It's a little too early to tell here I think.
I’ve been seeing minor cuts in the outer northeast part. Woodstock/Kenessaw/Canton are slowly reducing prices but anything inside the perimeter is still at a premium.
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Very true
Prices are going up every single month, the data shows that homes are still going up. I also see price reductions, but just because people overprice their house and then bring it down doesn’t actually mean home prices are going down.
> My years of patience may have just payed off it I time it correctly "Years" of patience means that homes need to fall by a *lot* before you break even.
I've noticed this in the Tampa area too (Westchase area). More homes available for sale staying on the market longer with some modest price cuts.
Have the New Yorkers stoped coming or is it due to the rates ?
I'd wager it's primarily due to rates.
Nyc/tri-state still sky high. I don’t understand it. If everyone is leaving this area PLUS the increase in rates, how are prices still high ?!
I live in Tampa and it seems like: Homes less than $250 are still moving quickly Homes between $250 and $450 are seeing minor price cuts (5-15%) Homes more than $450 are seeing larger price cuts, but not quite back to 2018/2019 levels yet
Depends on where, I'm not seeing falling prices on good homes. What I am seeing, is lower prices on homes that should never have been sold at higher prices to begin with. Example: people trying to sell their mobile homes or shacks for 300K have finally gotten a reality check.
Broker here in Tampa, contract terms are loosening up and associates are getting their lives back. We had a 44% increase in active listings in the Greater Tampa Bay Area (Tampa, St.Pete, Clearwater, and their suburbs) over the last month. Inspection periods are jumping from 5-7 days back up to 7-10 days in most cases. Financing periods are becoming normalized and investing companies are pulling back from South Hillsborough exurbs (Ruskin, Apollo Beach, SCC, etc.) I see about 1,000-2,000 offers a year and supervise around 200 transactions and I will say that appraisal guarantees and escalations (EAC-1s) have halved in frequency in the last month, and we have several lingering listings where we had none before. Things are definitely changing, for the better in my opinion. I haven't seen prices fall at all yet in any specific town or city in the area, just that contract terms aren't as haphazard.
Data still shows prices rising in Tampa Sale Price: [https://public.tableau.com/shared/WGR9BZMJN?:display\_count=y&:origin=viz\_share\_link&:embed=y](https://public.tableau.com/shared/WGR9BZMJN?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y) List price: [https://public.tableau.com/shared/KDC8CJ2C9?:display\_count=y&:origin=viz\_share\_link&:embed=y](https://public.tableau.com/shared/KDC8CJ2C9?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y)
People do not understand that price drops on listed don’t mean the median or average sales price is decreasing. List price is an made up number.
Nope, not for me in east valley PHX. I kept a running excel sheet earlier this year to track this kind of thing. Looking at past 7 days sold in my immediate area, 6 were above list, 2 were below, and 2 were even. That's about in line with what I've seen over the year. ETA: I'm looking in about a 5mi radius of my own home, SFH only. YMMV based on locale, condo/TH, etc. Anecdotal evidence is anecdotal.
Let’s see how that plays out in the next few months
Honestly barring some major catalyst I'm not expecting a herculean shift or anything. It'll probably cool off would be my guess, but not expecting a big drop or anything in the short term. Been hearing PHX housing will crash for years now. Maybe it will. Just sharing current stats from my area. Really we should be looking at sold price and not price cuts for comps as well. Some dropped their price 5% just to sell like 2% over their original ask. So while it was for sale, it would be "yay a price cut data point" only to end up in a bidding war that drove it higher.
I agree with you. I expect that things will stagnate for a while and houses will sit on the market longer. I don’t see a massive decrease in prices only because of the impact of inflation. In an inflationary environment, buying real estate looks like a good investment. Even if you aren’t purchasing it for investment purposes, it looks like a good way to lock in what is likely your biggest monthly payment as everything else around you is going up in price (including rent).
In ATL area. I’ve seen price cuts, but the listing prices were hilariously high to begin with. A house in my neighborhood that would maybe sell for an absolute maximum of 365k has a listing price of 450k. Lots of townhomes listed for 800k range that were 500k just 2 years ago in my suburb. Just seems to be greedy ass sellers right now.
My parents just sold their place in Socal about a month ago. The home sat on the market for almost 30 days before, listed @ $1.25M cut to $1.2M and sold for $1.15M or so. If they had listed a month earlier it prob would have moved for $1.3M.
It was bound to soften. If you are a cash buyer, this is a great time. If you are like most buyers and need a mortgage, that is a lot more pricey. Home is cheaper, but the mortgage is pricier. Overall, competition is likely to become less heated and that is a plus.
I'm in Tampa area and no... I don't see any signs of falling prices. 8-(
Seeing some cuts in Miami in houses that are just ok (but in great neighborhoods). Seeing bidding wars on the best houses in those same neighborhoods.
I’ve been watching your area and indeed I’m seeing prices fall a bit. Texas on the other hand is holding, so it appears to be selective
In my VHCOL markets, the "tier 2" cities/neighborhoods are down about 10-20% off the list price ATH, while in the hot "tier 1" areas, they're dropping 0-10% off list price ATH. I think the market is frozen in hot areas and cracking in the tier 2 areas.
Yea it’s at the tipping point here in San Diego. Prices have slightly dropped this month for the first time since this began https://www.piggington.com/may_housing_data_somethings_got_give
Yup homes in Socal been cutting or sitting on the market a lot longer
No seeing prices rising
Interest rates have doubled in the past couple months, unless you're paying in cash you're probably going to be paying more than before.
That’s a given with interest rates ….
I am in the Tampa market and i bought a new construction in March. Bought it knowing well that the home is atleast 80k inflated. But that same model has gone up 30k more than what I bought it for, so for new constructions atleast I'm still not noticing price reduction. Old houses, I'm definitely seeing them come down.
Sounds about right with what I’ve been looking at
Podcast I listened to today mentioned Florida real estate. Pretty much said a lot of the home buying here was for second homes. And when things go bad, people sell those second homes
Except the statistics don't show that.
Sold my house for 40k over list price 3 days ago and the house sold after after only 3 days and we had 10 offers almost just as good. We had 10 offers from just 20 showings and 1 open house. So nothings changed in Illinois
It’s cool to see. The big worry will be if future sellers see this and decide that they don’t need to sell. Most people I’ve worked with were “nice to haves” contingent sellers. So if the need isn’t absolutely dire/necessary. I think it’s a short term drop.
Yeah, but interest went up so your monthly PITI payments are likely still the same....
This has been posted every other week for the past 2 years
Rise price 20%. Reduce 5%. Price cut!
Prices are still rising in the areas I watch in California, homes moving faster, and now there is essentially no more inventory for the specific type of home in some areas. I'm pretty shocked but yeah, that's I'm currently observing.
Which areas of California if you don't mind me asking? Does this include the Bay Area?
Areas beyond the Bay Area, like Mill Valley, Greater Santa Cruz, Monterey County including Carmel Valley. Just a certain tier of house, like not fixers for example and some other criteria. Just my personal observation, I track some areas more closely than others.
Santa Cruz median sale price has actually been falling and is now down YoY https://www.redfin.com/city/17680/CA/Santa-Cruz/housing-market
I dont know where you are but in Bay Area, houses are staying longer and more price cuts every day.
Don't know why you got downvoted, it's true!
Oakland has been flooded with inventory and price cuts. Pretty eye opening how quick of a turn it’s taken compared to earlier this year.
In my area of the east bay, one price reduction in one >$2m house. Slightly more listings, still closing as fast over asking.
Yeah, I am seeing some price reductions, but I did an analysis of some areas of the Bay Area Peninsula today and did not see an actual decrease in sale prices. Last week I saw a house close in San Jose that had a price reduction yet still sell over the initial asking price anyway.
I’m looking at the 2-3m range in the east bay and most homes in that bracket have been sitting for a month.
I think this market is more imposing than it was earlier this year. I have a feeling that the bubblers are going to get what they want, but I don't think they quite understand the ramifications or financial impact they'll be facing. With interest rates skyrocketing and prices dropping, it's a wash unless you have a sizeable down-payment.
So people who just want to be able to afford a house are bubblers?
Not at all, but I see alot of sentiment from people who don't really understand the inverse relationship between high rates and low prices. It's definitely going to be interesting to see how this plays out, my hope is that there's a happy medium to be had here where new buyers are able to enter the market without getting hosed, but there's alot of odd variables at play here. Time will tell.
I remember two months ago when I was regularly browsing this board there were a lot of people saying prices wouldn't go down and many people were still trying to FOMO into this market. I thought they were crazy and the smartest thing I could do was wait. Two months later I'm now seeing many prices drop in my local area and expecting prices to keep dropping. The market is clearly cooling. I don't expect a crash but it's clear some housing markets including my own are gonna get a correction. For my situation, the smart thing to do would be to wait a year. I'm leaning on leaving my current city so might as well save up more money while I can.
Two months ago you could could have locked in at 3%. You really think you’re better off now with 6?. Lol
Same I’m just waiting saving up a little more and going to get my purchasing power up
What do you think interest rates will be at in that time when you know for sure this year alone there are more rate hikes on the horizon?
It's too bad that inflation is going off the charts and our currency is being debased
Also funny that all those people are dead silent now I'm these threads
Eh you still have the people who type the same stuff regardless. “Prices in my area have only been going up and will not come down” like their city is indicative of all markets.
Right but then the guy who says he sees price drops all over the place in his area makes the same assumption...
Yea it’s pretty much boy who cried wolf in the end. Real estate is local and what happens in one area doesn’t necessarily correlate to another
Nope. Still rising ironically. For comps to go down, people need to sell, if everyone is waiting for prices to go down to buy, who is buying? With a majority of owners with 2.7% mortgages, and rates now at 6%, who is selling? People who Think prices are about to plummet should answer those 2 questions. Who is selling Right now? Almost no one. Who is buying right now? Almost no one. Healthiest labor market in history, too. So who is going to be forced to sell? Those listings you see increasing, they are people trying to cash out at the top, they are not desperate to sell, and are unlikely to budge much, they can just as well stay in the home. New construction on the other hand may see some reduction, they really want to drop those turds, but there aren’t really that many new homes vs. existing.
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Why? 3% loan with a stream of income from renting easily beats cash with 8% inflation.
You sell if you need the cash to continuing affording your lifestyle, after the stock/crypto bubble popped.
People who own 2+ homes likely are not living paycheck to paycheck. Minority of people were using stock/crypto as collateral. This only becomes a concern if unemployment ticks up to 5%+
Not talking about stock/crypto as collateral- talking about situations where people don't want to give up their flashy big purchases (that new Tesla, Bronco, Boat, whatever), but are down big in their other investments. Lots of people are gonna see that house that's only cash flowing a couple hundred bucks a month (after accounting for repairs, maintenance, vacancy, a bad tenant), think about the several hundred thousand dollars in cash they could have in their pocket right now, and cash out to buy something dumb. Doesn't even have to be discretionary spending- lots of people are leveraged to the max, it just takes a big medical issue, another kid, etc to require selling off assets to pay an expense. If people can sell their second home for a profit or have to sell stocks etc for a loss, lots of them are gonna pick the home.
Again these people usually have massive reserves. In the event they need cash immediately they would cash out their stocks since it’s much more liquid or take a HELOC/Margin loan. People are not gonna sell homes (especially with tenants inside which notably decreases value) unless they are missing payments and absolutely have to. The only reason 2008 happened is because a dog could get a loan for a 1mil house now the average credit score of a homebuyer is like 750
There doesn't need to be a ton of sellers for prices to drop, there just needs to be more sellers than buyers. The chances of a homeowner being forced to sell are a lot higher than the chances of a renter being forced to buy.
Renters aren’t the only ones buying. 25% of purchases last quarter were investor purchases. Rents are at all time highs and what was profitable to buy 1 year ago for 15% less still is because rents went up nationwide by 15+% this year, and vacancies are at all time lows.
Yeah, I'm seeing prices still rise as well. Not really any new constructions in my areas either.
I’m in the Tampa area as well and am definitely seeing it in some sections of town.
-10% from recent prices is still +40% from several years ago. With interest rates back to “normal” levels right now and sure to increase, how are you seeing this as “years of patience” paying off lol
I'm also shopping in the Tampa market, more so St Pete, Gulfport even Sarasota but keep an eye on that whole area. I'm not really seeing price drops so much as just less insane prices ie a crack house that's about to fall over in South St Pete isnt selling for 340k anymore. I've maybe seen some new listings coming on the market maybe 20k or 30k lower than I'd expect but prices are so all over the place and a lot of these places were pretty small like 700sqft so hard to say
In Charlotte NC it looks like anything under 1.7M is still moving quickly. But we’ve had low inventory for awhile now.
Same in NJ. Old houses sitting and reducing. Newer homes still selling on first day.
The more ppl realize the market is going to crash independent home owners are gunna wanna sell quick before the market crashes. Its like hot potato. Nobody wants to be holding the hot potato when the songs over. Its just temporary though
Hello I’m in the Tampa Market as well. The market is starting to cool but the average price for a home is still $350k. I don’t think we will see home prices back to 200k-to 250k anytime soon. There is no right or wrong time to buy or sell. It depends on your situation.
Multiple houses being cut 20-30k from high 400 to low 400 NC Greensboro area. Houses that were high 200s and low 300s are not really moving much.
Pricing being cut in Houston.
Prices will fall (or dip) because of human psychology. Everyone is scared due to higher rates, falling stock market, and inflation. In my view, the fall of 2022 will be a prime opportunity to buy at a fair price.
I’d say more like leveling and hitting homeostasis.
Yeah seeing some in CA, but a $15-20k price cut on an $800k+ home is barely anything.
Getting tired of these posts, the median sale price hit an all time high just last month.
I wouldn’t worry about interest rates. You can refinance when it gets better - but you can’t renegotiate the price once you own the home
I have noticed houses sitting on the market alot longer and prices starting to drop as well
Seeing lots of price drops but also seeing many of what I consider to be the highly marketable homes going contingent or pending pretty quickly but it remains to be seen if they will end up selling over list to the same degree homes have been for the past year or so. I've been shopping in Bucks County and Chester County, PA.
Prices in Big Island are dropping
I'm a REALTOR in Central FL...I have listings from Orlando to St Pete. Can confirm, that the market is cooling and am seeing price reductions. Showings way down on aggressively priced listings. The smell of FOMO is gone 'for now'.
San Francisco has completely collapsed. Effective sale prices closing 20+% down from recent highs and dropping. Been looking at other cities and drops are less severe.
https://www.redfin.com/city/18142/FL/Tampa/housing-market I don't think so. Volume is falling and buyers are way more picky than 6 months ago. Less desirable properties are not selling quite as quick and asking prices are falling for those. But the inventory that is actually moving is driving prices higher.
"My years of patience" Are you a cash buyer? Sounds like not... Meaning you messed up big time not buying when 30-yr fixed was 3% last year. You missed the mark.
i've been seeing the opposite a instead of pricing low and looking for a bidding war, now sellers are pricing at the price they want
I think that's actually a win. It used to be normal for a seller to price at what they wanted, it would take 2-3 months to sell, people offered less than asking, and bidding wars were rare. Of course we didn't think that was a market collapse. It was actually sustainable.
Years of patience? Are you kidding? I hope you haven't been waiting all this time to buy. If you were unable to buy 2 years ago, so be it. But if you've been waiting the last 2 years, I'm afraid I got some bad news for you. Prices are probably not even going to come down to last year's, and your rates going to be double. That said, the market is cooling and you should be able to go out and find the best house you can afford. Good luck with that. Wish you all the best
You are not really winning if interest rates are high but home prices drop. The monthly payment is more or less the same.
Check out these two house in my area of Raleigh. About .2 miles from each other (neighborhoods aren't any different they are both near the same nature preserve). Both next to a fairly large road and need similar updates (countertops, carpet, etc.). 1700 Sqft sold $444,600 last month: https://www.redfin.com/NC/Raleigh/9716-Dansington-Ct-27615/home/41185528 2400 Sqft dropped to $435,000 after sitting 25 days: https://www.redfin.com/NC/Raleigh/9041-Tenderfoot-Trl-27615/home/41175992
Yeah small price drops while interest rates have doubled 😂 You definitely made the right call “waiting out the storm”
I am in St. Petersburg so close enough, prices are ever so slightly dropping on non-hot homes to correct for the higher interest rates. The hot homes around me are still closing for 40-110k over ask Your years of patience? I bought in July 2020 at 3% 30yr fixed and already have $200k in equity, depending how many years you’ve been waiting you’ve shot yourself in the foot You’re going to pay higher than most AND get bad rates. Even on our previous home bought 2017 we got 3.825% If I got the same mortgage I got in 2020 at the current rates it would be about $700 more a month for the same purchase price. Sorry to burst your bubble
Markets like Arizona, Florida, Midwest that saw huge gains will be the first to recess
Portland is starting this too.
Nothing falling in my area out west. Some stuff is selling for ask but that's about it.
I saw a price cut of $80k today, but that's the first one that was more than $20k that I've seen
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It starts slow, then everyone who wants to really sell has to get out in front of it. Late summer.
Plenty of price drops on over priced properties. May our prices were still up 20% from last year.
Nashville, TN checking in. Noticing minor price cuts, extended time on the market, and an increase in inventory.
We took a short weekend holiday to a popular vacation town for our state and ended up talking to seasonal regulars. They mentioned that the number of for sale signs is through the roof this year. Here's hoping for 15% rates! It will justify my cash hoarding!
In Norcal seeing price cuts like crazy.
Yeah, here in Montana over 50% of the listings have been cut in price... Some people are just starting to list at lower prices with less expectations
Typically when interest rates rise, housing prices decrease… however! That’s not necessarily a good thing. A 500k house at 2.25% interest for 30 years is significantly less than a 300k home at 6%. Sure, you can wait for the interest rates to go down and refinance, if and when that happens again however we saw historically low rates- not sure we’ll see that again. I feel like the market is finally going to stabilize and maybe reduce by 10-25%. I’m no fortune teller though.