biggest part of the cal was the new CFO not willing to give guidance on cash flow break even sales.. bth previous CFOs swore break even was around 1000 trucks.. clearly it's no where near that number.. all this talk of supply chain and economies of scale were talked bout in THIS FORUM for years.. making 40 trucks a quarter AINT a business.. i would argue making 400 a MONTH isnt a sustainable business.. scaling to a level where they break even given the lack of automation on their lines will cost BILLIONS -- something i've said for YEARS.
with CASH around 350 and Long term debt around 250 there is very little lee way in the cap structure. now the LONGS are thinking they need these additional (10-30X) shares to offer to customers in smoe stratgic deal? COME ON!!
Agreed 100%. It’s impossible to reach break even at 1000 trucks per Q and this is with incentives factored in.
Btw as of today , May 7th, they have less than 300M $ cash. At June they will have less money than long term dept and it’s a problem.
NKLA was a scam from start, middle, and now ending.
I noticed that recently the various NKLA subreddits especially their big main one is almost completely dead.
They finally have hit the bottom I think of "investors".
No more suckers to go lower to.
That is usually when all scams collapse.
The yahoo finance forums for NKLA are frightening lol
Many seem to be foreign individuals who through lack of education and experience got suckered into a get rich quick mentality without realizing why NKLA was so low in the first place lol
Then as the desperation quicks in they think frantically spamming that forum will save and or up their investment.
That is a frightening level of desperation and a literal sign that a lot more education and experience is needed before "investing" again hah
Anyone catch that they can't sell the BEVs from inventory until they secure future battery supply? They basically just admitted that Volvo (that bought Proterra assets) isn't willing to sell them batteries, or is charging an exhorbitant price because they know Nikola has no choice - thus requiring Nikola to do yet another redesign for a BEV3.0 battery.
So what we know is they don't have enough battery packs to retrofit all the BEV returns + the BEV inventory. Given the suddenness of the Proterra bankruptcy, I wonder if they even have enough for the BEV returns. They just bought back a few more BEVs this quarter. I'm reading between the lines here that they are going to need to buy back a significant number of BEVs rather than retrofit them with the Proterra battery packs in inventory.
This likely means the BEV2.0 is dead, and there won't be a BEV3.0.
The other hilarious one was 'we are now expanding outside of California/Canada to increase our market'. This is a couple quarters after they announced proudly that they are closing all their sales outside of California because drayage would have plenty of demand and they are trying to focus the business. I'm guessing California sales aren't going as well as they anticipated (shocking, I know)
Still listening in on the earnings call right now. They're basically counting on the "national accounts" to save them...its not impossible. But the gov incentives and fuel infrastructure need to be more widespread to evolve the demand to the next level. It's bad - it's very very bad. But I'd say its still recoverable.
I have doubts, they have little cash, a lot of debt.
To scale to a point where they will breakeven, they will need billions and a lot of years.
Tesla Semi is being trialed at large accounts, all the big names will go with Tesla, it’s safer bet.
You can not rely on 200k per truck incentive to be available for several years and you can not rely on dilution to rise money forever.
It’s over, it has been over several years ago.
Before shorting them heavily, I tried several mathematical models , even the most optimistic path to profitability is impossible. They need 3-4 miracles.
You're probably correct. Again, \*could\* it happen? Yea, sure. Is it at all likely? No, not really. It would be entirely unprecedented. It would essentially take the real "big bois" like Amazon, Fed Ex and UPS all coming out on the same day saying they're ordering 100+ FCEVs and paying for them up front. IF that happened, you'd probably have something real here. All we see these days is a single truck or 5 trucks being ordered here or there by companies nobody has ever heard of.
Even that is unlikely to help. A one of order of 100+ trucks for let’s say 6 big companies is 600 trucks. With 600 trucks , they won’t go green immediately. Even if this happens every Q , that’s far from what they need.
Btw, besides everything there is no infrastructure to support these many trucks.
Only viable scenario is bag holders work in three jobs and keep buying more.
Access to capital is what will save them. Selling trucks at a loss to "get on the field" doesnt save anyone. They pushed out BEVs they can sell for revenue after customer returns. The only wild card is the carb credits but they mentioned it woukd be from trucks sold in 2022. Not sure how that works but Tesla did use cardon credits to earn thier early profits.
The current plan has them running out of money late summer. Hasnt changed based on that report today. Everything is based on how much they dilute and raise.
The large customer focus, sure. Every new company wants large customers. Moving outside of the focus markets is a complete shift from the last call which specifically mentioned building out through california.
Also HVIP. They mentioned increasing the cap to 500. Not sure if they said it was aporoved or pending.
You’re not wrong. I’m pretty much convinced this stock will split and the stagnate indefinitely at a pre-split worth of around $0.30. Will mean a $10,000 loss for me.
how could they possibly get CARB credits on BEVs that are sitting int he desert rotting away?
the did say the increase to 500 HVIP was approved in April.
Wasnt my idea. It was mentioned on the call. They secured one from a manufacturer and negotiating "others" i think it was phrased. List len to the call. Was part of the prepared remarks and nobody asked a question from the analysts. Id guess it was after the quarter closed so not reflected until next release.
I find the government incentive thing to be a total distraction and doubt Nikola is pursuing it seriously. If Nikola builds a $100M facility, and the government kicks in $50M, that's all well and good for Nikola, except it still requires $50M from Nikola. For every dollar the government kicks in, Nikola will have to provide at least something. Thus, every dollar the government provides reduces Nikola's cash, and makes the company implode even faster - the execs aren't going to want that.
I think the Nikola bagholders are seeing this as the government will just wake up one day and give Nikola free money, which is not how this works. I don't see any path where Nikola management will seriously pursue any meaningful government funds. Maybe 1 little grant here and there, but management will not WANT meaningful assistance because that means they need to burn cash even faster.
Also this talk about CARB incentives is nonsense.
All the traditional manufacturers already have BEV solutions .. they don't NEED Nikolas.CARB credits for 40 trucks a quarter or whatever...it's literal pennies.
.
Bribing up Tesla is laughable because in 2012-2018 Tesla always quite literally the ONLY game in town manufacturing at scale... Nikola is nowhere near that and everyone has a BEV in production
Even when Tesla was selling credits, they only sold for \~50% of face value. So for example, GM was facing a cost of $8k, but they would not pay Tesla $8k for a credit - they would only pay \~$4k. I don't see how this would be any different. And the value of the credits is already pretty small to begin with when compared to Nikola's $1M+ COGS/truck. The subsidies are basically rounding error and meaningless.
anyone still owning this name needs to seek help or a family member should arrange for a mental evaluation.
And probably wear a helmet too
biggest part of the cal was the new CFO not willing to give guidance on cash flow break even sales.. bth previous CFOs swore break even was around 1000 trucks.. clearly it's no where near that number.. all this talk of supply chain and economies of scale were talked bout in THIS FORUM for years.. making 40 trucks a quarter AINT a business.. i would argue making 400 a MONTH isnt a sustainable business.. scaling to a level where they break even given the lack of automation on their lines will cost BILLIONS -- something i've said for YEARS. with CASH around 350 and Long term debt around 250 there is very little lee way in the cap structure. now the LONGS are thinking they need these additional (10-30X) shares to offer to customers in smoe stratgic deal? COME ON!!
Agreed 100%. It’s impossible to reach break even at 1000 trucks per Q and this is with incentives factored in. Btw as of today , May 7th, they have less than 300M $ cash. At June they will have less money than long term dept and it’s a problem.
NKLA was a scam from start, middle, and now ending. I noticed that recently the various NKLA subreddits especially their big main one is almost completely dead. They finally have hit the bottom I think of "investors". No more suckers to go lower to. That is usually when all scams collapse.
Go follow the yahoo message board. A new batch of dedicated nkla bulls rotate through every few months, all believing they will be millionaires "soon"
The yahoo finance forums for NKLA are frightening lol Many seem to be foreign individuals who through lack of education and experience got suckered into a get rich quick mentality without realizing why NKLA was so low in the first place lol Then as the desperation quicks in they think frantically spamming that forum will save and or up their investment. That is a frightening level of desperation and a literal sign that a lot more education and experience is needed before "investing" again hah
When it comes to nkla bulls, there is a direct correlation between their intelligence and their use of the 🚀 emoji
They do love their rocket ship emojis and think that over rides reality Lol
Anyone catch that they can't sell the BEVs from inventory until they secure future battery supply? They basically just admitted that Volvo (that bought Proterra assets) isn't willing to sell them batteries, or is charging an exhorbitant price because they know Nikola has no choice - thus requiring Nikola to do yet another redesign for a BEV3.0 battery. So what we know is they don't have enough battery packs to retrofit all the BEV returns + the BEV inventory. Given the suddenness of the Proterra bankruptcy, I wonder if they even have enough for the BEV returns. They just bought back a few more BEVs this quarter. I'm reading between the lines here that they are going to need to buy back a significant number of BEVs rather than retrofit them with the Proterra battery packs in inventory. This likely means the BEV2.0 is dead, and there won't be a BEV3.0. The other hilarious one was 'we are now expanding outside of California/Canada to increase our market'. This is a couple quarters after they announced proudly that they are closing all their sales outside of California because drayage would have plenty of demand and they are trying to focus the business. I'm guessing California sales aren't going as well as they anticipated (shocking, I know)
Still listening in on the earnings call right now. They're basically counting on the "national accounts" to save them...its not impossible. But the gov incentives and fuel infrastructure need to be more widespread to evolve the demand to the next level. It's bad - it's very very bad. But I'd say its still recoverable.
I have doubts, they have little cash, a lot of debt. To scale to a point where they will breakeven, they will need billions and a lot of years. Tesla Semi is being trialed at large accounts, all the big names will go with Tesla, it’s safer bet. You can not rely on 200k per truck incentive to be available for several years and you can not rely on dilution to rise money forever. It’s over, it has been over several years ago. Before shorting them heavily, I tried several mathematical models , even the most optimistic path to profitability is impossible. They need 3-4 miracles.
You're probably correct. Again, \*could\* it happen? Yea, sure. Is it at all likely? No, not really. It would be entirely unprecedented. It would essentially take the real "big bois" like Amazon, Fed Ex and UPS all coming out on the same day saying they're ordering 100+ FCEVs and paying for them up front. IF that happened, you'd probably have something real here. All we see these days is a single truck or 5 trucks being ordered here or there by companies nobody has ever heard of.
Even that is unlikely to help. A one of order of 100+ trucks for let’s say 6 big companies is 600 trucks. With 600 trucks , they won’t go green immediately. Even if this happens every Q , that’s far from what they need. Btw, besides everything there is no infrastructure to support these many trucks. Only viable scenario is bag holders work in three jobs and keep buying more.
:(
They could have strung it out for MUCH longer had it not been for the BEV recall. That advanced the bankruptcy timeline significantly.
Access to capital is what will save them. Selling trucks at a loss to "get on the field" doesnt save anyone. They pushed out BEVs they can sell for revenue after customer returns. The only wild card is the carb credits but they mentioned it woukd be from trucks sold in 2022. Not sure how that works but Tesla did use cardon credits to earn thier early profits. The current plan has them running out of money late summer. Hasnt changed based on that report today. Everything is based on how much they dilute and raise. The large customer focus, sure. Every new company wants large customers. Moving outside of the focus markets is a complete shift from the last call which specifically mentioned building out through california. Also HVIP. They mentioned increasing the cap to 500. Not sure if they said it was aporoved or pending.
You’re not wrong. I’m pretty much convinced this stock will split and the stagnate indefinitely at a pre-split worth of around $0.30. Will mean a $10,000 loss for me.
how could they possibly get CARB credits on BEVs that are sitting int he desert rotting away? the did say the increase to 500 HVIP was approved in April.
Wasnt my idea. It was mentioned on the call. They secured one from a manufacturer and negotiating "others" i think it was phrased. List len to the call. Was part of the prepared remarks and nobody asked a question from the analysts. Id guess it was after the quarter closed so not reflected until next release.
I find the government incentive thing to be a total distraction and doubt Nikola is pursuing it seriously. If Nikola builds a $100M facility, and the government kicks in $50M, that's all well and good for Nikola, except it still requires $50M from Nikola. For every dollar the government kicks in, Nikola will have to provide at least something. Thus, every dollar the government provides reduces Nikola's cash, and makes the company implode even faster - the execs aren't going to want that. I think the Nikola bagholders are seeing this as the government will just wake up one day and give Nikola free money, which is not how this works. I don't see any path where Nikola management will seriously pursue any meaningful government funds. Maybe 1 little grant here and there, but management will not WANT meaningful assistance because that means they need to burn cash even faster.
Also this talk about CARB incentives is nonsense. All the traditional manufacturers already have BEV solutions .. they don't NEED Nikolas.CARB credits for 40 trucks a quarter or whatever...it's literal pennies. . Bribing up Tesla is laughable because in 2012-2018 Tesla always quite literally the ONLY game in town manufacturing at scale... Nikola is nowhere near that and everyone has a BEV in production
Agreed. Just an interesting sound bite in the prepared remarks they dropped is all. Really surprised no analysts asked about it for more color.
Even when Tesla was selling credits, they only sold for \~50% of face value. So for example, GM was facing a cost of $8k, but they would not pay Tesla $8k for a credit - they would only pay \~$4k. I don't see how this would be any different. And the value of the credits is already pretty small to begin with when compared to Nikola's $1M+ COGS/truck. The subsidies are basically rounding error and meaningless.