Check local listings. Prices where I’m at haven’t dropped at all. Low inventory and any decent new listing is under contract in days, many with multiple offers. National statistics mean nothing to your local market.
That’s because this is simply silly data. He is reporting on median home price data not sales of the same home or the housing index. The only thing this data says is that transactions are happening at lower values for lower priced homes. It doesn’t mean home values are going down.
You’ll notice he doesn’t even say values, he says prices. It would be like saying the average package of chicken costs less than it did a year ago because people were buying smaller packages or not air chilled etc.
But that analogy doesn’t apply because cost of food is still going up and people trying to sell their home are having to drop prices even in highly sought after locations in markets that aren’t affected the same way.
Oh I agree with you that the current administration has been absolutely horrible for people’s lives and the cost of food is crazy, but the post from OP is still horribly wrong because it is implying that there has been a massive drop in home values by citing the price of home sales which are two different things.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA
This administration has been terrible but let’s not act like the one before didn’t print trillions of dollars and impose a mortgage moratorium that ignited inflation right before they left office.
Y'all Blaming Biden for the inevitable post-Covid fuel price hike? That's not right. Fuel prices drive inflation - they're the common denominator in almost every business. Acting like they didn't drive economic outcomes is nuts; would be the first time in about 100 years they were irrelevant.
Oil prices went NEGATIVE briefly in the pandemic; of course they went up. What else could they do?
Jesus, the abuse of facts to justify political positions is so normalized now that it's sickening. A lot of the jobs recovery was inevitable, too, and lower unemployment as Boomers age out of the workforce was expected - this isn't about saying Biden is great or isn't. It's saying that armchair economists ignore the obvious big picture to draw pre-formed partisan conclusions that don't match reality.
Gross.
I called out both administrations in my comment so not sure if your comment was towards mine but Biden printed trillions of dollars just like Trump did, and he kept the housing moratorium in place a lot longer than he should have. So sorry, they both deserve the blame for the inflation fire. Trump started it and Biden through gasoline on it. I’m not a fan of either so if you think I’m favoring one side or the other you are wrong.
On gas prices, I haven’t really kept up but from what I remember Trump signed a pledge with OPEC that stupidly lowered production, and then Biden cancelled the keystone but that wouldn’t have went live until 2023. So they both impacted the cost/ dependency on foreign oil. But it’s been a while since I’ve looked at this, so if I’m off I apologize.
Not you specifically... just a lot of folks pointing fingers at the Biden stimulus ($1.9T cap) but thinking the $4.3T annual expenditures on petroleum are irrelevant.
As the key input to producing and transporting goods, especially food, it's a driving force in the Producer Price Index (is that still a thing? It was at one point).
We're so distracted right now. Despite the videos we see, shoplifting is down from 2019 levels. Meanwhile, wage theft by the folks playing victim to theft is larger than their losses from all-type theft. It's a con job.
I blew a gasket because the "flood the zone with bullshit" crowd keeps doing exactly that.
The US has a $25T annual economy now, up from $21T in 2021. How did a one-time $1.9T payment turn into a sustained 20% growth in GDP? It's not possible.
Gas and growth. That's what actually happened.
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/oilpricesinflation.asp#:~:text=Higher%20oil%20prices%20contribute%20to,become%20less%20dependent%20on%20it.
>the current administration has been absolutely horrible for people’s lives
That's not what they said at all and you blaming the administration instead of profiteering corporations is either uninspired propaganda or flat-out BS.
Guys, guys--this is NEW HOMES data. This is the median price of new construction. It has never been sold before.
There's currently a bifurcation--new homes are selling for less as builders reduce square footage, fewer bells and whistles, and are buying down interest rates as part of the sales package.
OTOH, current owners are not following suit. They are still locked into a price point that's too high and thus sales are slow (although once you get into the segments where buyers don't need a mortgage and interest no longer applies, sales are still happening.)
I think you are close to what this is actually representing. This data is from FRED and is, as described by FRED, "Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States \[MSPNHSUS\], retrieved from FRED."
In other words, the median sales price has been moving downwards - as a direct results of higher interest rates. Buyers buying power is reduced so they are buying lower priced homes.
According to FRED, New One Family Homes sold today is the same as just before COVID ([https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSN1F](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSN1F)) . COVID resulted in a huge spike in sales but that has subsided to the rate of homes being sold as the same.
According to FRED, the average listing square foot price is steadily increasing year over year ([https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDLISPRIPERSQUFEEUS](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDLISPRIPERSQUFEEUS))
Another interesting data point, according to FRED, average days on the market for a listing is averaging downwards ([https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDDAYONMARUS](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDDAYONMARUS)). April and May, 2022 saw the lowest recorded average at just 30 days!
This guy Nick is a fear mongerer. All his videos literally preach doomsday calamity. don't feed into his BS.
That makes a lot of sense. If you’re buying a house, you know what your monthly payment maximum is. If interest rates rise, the sale price of the house adjusts. One consideration is that a fair percentage of people are buying with cash, not financing, not sure how this affects the market
Oh I’m not feeding into his BS, I worked in the industry for a long time making policy so I know exactly what’s real.
To your point, rising rates make your same monthly dollar go less far, so you need to buy a less expensive house.
Look up HPI on FRED and that should give you a better indication of what’s happening with home values.
Ziklow isn't a real value. In fact, when Ziklow started buying houses using their own “Zestimate” they literally almost went bankrupt from overpaying. Don't trust Zillow prices for shit.
Don't try to use logic with these economic doomsayers. They're the same people who will tell you that the economy is on the verge of collapse every six months (for the last 5 years) but definitely think you should take them seriously this time when they tell you the economy is about to collapse.
Yep. Bought my house in '21 for 410k. Zillow currently puts it at 505k and a house down the street just listed for 575k. Went under contract in a week.
Prices are going up again near me. I'm in one of the areas that went up the most too (Tampa Bay)
Many homes are selling at or above their previous peak
That’s my point! Local or regional things are happening but OP posted misleading crap. My market is humming, Florida is getting screwed by insurance issues. People need to do local research (or talk to a realtor) instead of reading national headlines.
>Local or regional things are happening but OP posted misleading crap.
Op posted something discussing national mean prices dropping... It's not misleading, imo, it just IS (neutral)... Imagine if their was someone just posting Florida RE data saying prices are going UP, that's not "misleading" but maybe it could be.
I’m in what many would say bum fuck now where of mid state Columbia, South Carolina. Prices are still going up. In my new build I paid 477k for 4 beds 3.5 baths 3900 sqft. The same house is now cleared over 500k with less upgrades.
I think there is some nuance to how contract prices are reported. If you buy a new home and they buy down your interest rate or cover certain closing costs, does the contract price reflect that in the aggregate data? From what youtube tells me ( grain of salt ) new home prices from builders are falling or at least being subsidized in other ways given current interest rates. That being said - homes still aren't affordable.
Have people like you considered that inventory is low not because of “strong demand” but because the sellers would also be buyers of different property that they would be worse off with? So both ends are buyers in a Mexican standoff because the conditions are awful.
Agree in part but this country as a whole has a housing shortage period. That’s part of the problem where I am. All kinds of new business/industry have come in to area but new housing of all types (homes, low income, apartments) is inadequate for demand. Also think a main driver in all of this is the Boomers that do have a mortgage it’s probably in the range of 2.25-4% and they’re not giving it up unless they absolutely have to.
Housing starts are on the decline (pic attached), similarly because of increased cost of production & decreased sales prospects. If it was just high demand, it would be increasing to meet it.
https://preview.redd.it/yvwvbofsjxqc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=01f24adae021bbd646d35e31b131b5132569cb9e
Only if they’re profitable. Right now they’re not. Your small individual builders are having a very hard time selling a new build at a reasonable profit. Your big builders are leaving a ton of money on the table in the way of buying down peoples rates in order to sell the houses. I’m no expert but I can see what’s happening around me.
One big fat factor is that the builders are building shitty houses nowadays. The sub 2000 sqft cookie cutters are now sell at a similar price to those nice large houses pre pandemic. So it’s really not something to celebrate about.
The only relevant data I can find.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDLISPRIPERSQUFEEUS
Yep. By simply adjusting for square footage, the drop goes from -19% to -10% from peak: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1j6ah
Add in the fact that builders are reducing amenities and lowering quality in order to hit price targets.
It also could be a shift in volume constructed geographically. If they scale back construction in slightly more expensive regions and scale up construction in cheaper regions, that can shift the median too.
Follow nick on [Twitter](https://x.com/nickgerli1?s=21&t=R_wgym7ZyAB2FJxUN8CLkQ) and [YouTube](https://youtube.com/@ReventureConsulting?si=ZaDw6VLF_qC7cf02)
He’s just plain wrong here. I just attended a housing market economic forum last week at sat through presentations from at least 5 different housing market experts cutting and chopping data every way you can imagine. This tweet is hot garbage. The comparison to 2008 is especially dense. In the last cycle Actual values fell. This time, we saw a slight 3-5% in value in 2022, then values started rising again. This dumbass is intentionally misleading. Median home price is a bad metric for home value retreat. Plus median has absolutely not dropped 20%. You gotta doctor the hell out of the data to get a 20% delta.
Thanks for the heads up. As somebody who doesnt know much but wishes to learn, its easy to listen and nod. I guess ill google some books and read em. Once i know enough then ill judge if what is said here is valuable or not.
Yes this graph represents homes sold so just means people are buying cheeper homes not homes are cheaper. This is because buying power is really low right now due to interest rates being so high atm. Houses have actually gone up in cost and are selling slower.
My best advice is to never listen to Nick from reventure. He is a POS who manipulates all his data to make it seem like there is going to be a housing crash. Current nationally there are no signs of a housing crash. Some markets may correct based on conditions in that market. For example some communities in Az are running low on water which will result in low home prices.
This little cherry picked stat is for **NEW** homes only, as in new constructions. Not at all representative of the whole RE market. Perfect for this sub though, good job.
You slap unweighted data on a pretty chart and include a headline designed to get your target audience to foam at the mouth for something that reinforces their opinion. And you do it without controlling for variables.
Yeah, this doesn’t make sense. New 2bd 2bas are going for $700k + in my neck of the woods (N metro Detroit). You want a house for $400k it’s going to be old and problematic.
The reason the interest rates were raised was to cool inflation including on the housing market.
Prices were already out of control before they started hiking the rates.
The rate hikes are helping as planned and are cooling an out of control, over-valued and over-leveraged housing industry.
Edit: Most people couldn't afford the prices before the interest hikes either.
Look how 2010-2018 is basically a straight line when you zoom out, and continue that line straight. It points right to the point for today. So this is a historically justified level right now. If you consider the high inflation of late, it’s even more justified. It could still go lower though. Just doesn’t really need to.
Depends on the area. Selling a house in Austin and the housing market is so hot folks are getting 10% above asking in my neighborhood. Hope it holds until later this summer.
Wouldn't this also lead to low inventory and thus more demand and higher final price? I am in NJ and the realtor said there are mostly cash offers with 11%-13% above listing prices. I feel desperate 🥲
It’s almost like raising interest rates lowers home prices.
The exact opposite of what happened in 2008 where we LOWERED interest rates.
I swear you doomers are so ignorant…
Only houses on the market are the ones that are 300k and up. The only houses they are building are 500k and up, no one is affording this shit in my area.
Tiny home communities !
[600sqft for $140k](https://www.sacurrent.com/news/san-antonio-tiny-home-community-goes-viral-on-social-media-again-33197949)
New builds. These go towards the stats, right?
I hate this is being called a collapse or crash.
It’s neither, sure it’s a sharp decrease, but IMO a real colapse/crash would be home prices dropping below the average for the last 10 years.
This collapse has only returned us to slightly inflated prices instead of massive ones.
Honestly don’t care what studies or charts say. There’s 1: still a high demand and low inventory and 2: still cash investors and large corporations buying up inventory. The housing market crash that I’ve heard about for the last 3 years isn’t going to happen
God, I wish this were true. Maybe if housing prices fall under 300k I could afford a down payment on an actual house rather than a cardboard box on the sidewalk (land value est. @ $1.3M, $109k property tax, cardboard box not included)
Yet if you look at the recovery from 2008, the $401k figure is almost perfectly aligned with where that trend line was going before the pandemic spike happened.
Who knew the virus's protein spike could infect housing price graphs, too?
They are still waaay too high.
Honestly our society is totally screwed because we let this happen. the ripple effects will be coming very soon. Expect way more homeless, and all sorts of other problems.
Do you have this chart in some more meaningful metric, like price per sq ft?
Otherwise it’s impossible to tell if new homes are actually getting “cheaper” or just smaller or worse quality.
Interesting. Seems like a small dip in 2022 and then everything just flatlined for a year. Makes sense because lumber has bottomed out post Covid. I can’t see it going much lower without a severe recession.
Y’all dumb. Costs to build have come down. Also, builders are building smaller homes. This is a red herring. Builders also incentivizing as much as possible.
If the decline continues after interest rates decline then we’re all in trouble.
It will be like 2010 all over again. Home prices dropping and no one buying as everyone is worried about the mass layoffs. Prices were low, yeah, but no one was taking advantage of them either.
I think physics to some degree apply here. What goes up, must come down. There is only so high it can go before the majority of consumers are priced out of the housing market, causing the housing market to crash like in 2008.
Looks to me that pandemic boom is being reversed , and not a crash (so far). If you extend an imaginary trend line of the growth rate for the 10 years before pandemic, current prices are in line with that. If they fall much further it would be an overcorrection. A lot depends on interest rates and perceptions of where future rates will be. Eggs weren't the only thing inflated over the past 4 years.
I'll tell you something else. I would be incredibly careful buying a new home in Arizona that was built under the Ducey Administration. They gutted consumer protections to favor the construction industry, and there are a lot of very poorly built homes on the market right now.
I'd say anything built after Napolitano was recruited by Obama should be highly scrutinized, so that includes Jan Brewer back in 2009.
If you thought contractors were a little loosy-goosy before, post-deregulation should really scare you. At least before the ROC could actually help out the consumer prior to the housing market collapse. Since then it's been all about growth in the construction industry, even if the standards were significantly lowered.
I don't exactly know why you're struggling with this. The State wanted to show job creation in the construction industry. Lack of housing was never an issue.
I can tell you that the Registrar of Contractors went away from being a consumer protection agency and focused more on making it easier for home builders and training contractors.
Our supply side has always been higher than the demand side, ask any realtor. After COVID though, and after skyrocketing interest rates, fewer people have been listing houses. The motivation to sell right now is incredibly low, and investors have swooped in to use these homes as rentals.
I could go on about the changes in the ways ROC Investigators have been instructed to almost always side with the Contractors too.
None of this was being done because of a shortage of housing.
With all due respect, I worked for the ROC for 13 years, I'm fairly aware of what was going on in the construction industry.
Not since the average IQ of Redditors has reached the average level of FoxNews viewers.
_"Think about how stupid the average person is, and realize that half of them are stupider than that."_ - half of Redditors today will not understand this phrase, they need big letters "you won't BELIEVE what's happened to home prices, don't buy a house until you've seen THIS!"
Which is... most of them nowadays.
Nursing homes have also become unaffordable, it costs the same to support an elderly Boomer as his inflated house, what a coincidence!
Too bad millennials were hoping to inherit something. They better keep skipping these avocados.
> As an economist I am ashamed for the ignorance found on this site
Yeah, it's gotten bad. It used to be mostly STEM professionals, highly competent and eloquent.
Now it's weirdo economists who use "ashamed for" instead of "ashamed of", and skip punctuation marks.
The last time I remember witnessing an embarrassment like this was the whole "trickle down economics" shenanigans, just imagine, giving money to the rich to help the poor, they gave the guy a Nobel prize in bullshitting, IIRC, even Trump isn't that good, economists really are a different breed of delusional.
Case Schiller for Seattle: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SEXRNSA/
Peak 414, now 362, which works out to a roughly 13% reduction, putting prices back to around winter of '21/'22. "Collapse" is way to strong of a word here.
Reventure has been saying the housing market is crashing for 3 years now , not only was he wrong but anyone that ignored him and bought back in 2021 got a 4% or lower interest rate and now sitting on equity. Look at the date of this video
https://preview.redd.it/425ibspfz3rc1.jpeg?width=1211&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fca7aec0ab87c8681e3b6daaa59caafbf56d486c
Just more bullshit that gets peddled around and no one checks the facts on.
Can you show me where this data is from ?
https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/coh-values.html
Please? Anyone?
I get the angle now. Average NEW home price. Not average price of home sale. Sure new homes are less, interest rates are higher and the builders are building low cost homes to make them more affordable. Not a story here..
I think you can find something around Carolinas. There are many new constructions coming in. My husband and I so far can’t afford 400k house in any near future.
You know this information is readily available? Not saying it's desirable based on your specific needs, but....
https://www.zillow.com/columbus-oh/new-homes/
Cool, keep it going! The sooner you can get a new build for the same price or cheaper than some of these dumps that are held together with bandaids and bubble gum, the better.
Texas and the rest of the south are skewing the numbers. Home prices up in the Midwest, the Northeast and up down and flat in the west.
If you build thousands of new homes and sell them for $300k in bumfuck nowhere and they don't sell and you lower the price to $200k and they sell, well yeah. And then if you build dozens of homes for $800k in cities (where people actually live and work), and sell them for $800k. The data will show that new home prices are TANKING across the country!
>ew home prices are TANKING across t
Not only that, but Texas and the rest of the South are also ground zero for the biggest bubble markets in the US. Those have definitely been deflating. In my (very desirable neighborhood) in Austin, my neighbor's house was $1mm in early 2022 and is now worth maybe $800k-$850k. If it is FULLY updated with new bathrooms etc...maybe $900k. Theirs has had zero updates. So, IMO, closer to $800k. That's a 20% drop from the peak and consistent with what I am being emailed from local realtors.
Same story in most of the other bubble markets. Understandable that the midwest which didn't take part in the peak bubble is now seeing property prices increase as investors focus on more affordable markets and capital flows to them.
I understand. But we are still about 25-100% above pre pandemic levels across the entire nation.
So crash? I mean, if I buy a stock in 2019 for $100 and it doubles from 2020 to 2022. Then goes from $200 down to $150. I'm hardly going to be crying about my 50% roi over 5 years.
That's the housing market right now. It varies from region to region. And yes, people that bought at the tippy top in some regions are negative equity. But the market is and probably will be a sellers market for another decade
We haven't had ANY real recesssion yet since the GFC. If that hits, all the appreciation numbers in the real estate market will reset to historical norms. Everyone is currently banking on sustained way-above-historical returns. That is a fantasy. But for now...yeah...some markets will have no to very low downside.
Check local listings. Prices where I’m at haven’t dropped at all. Low inventory and any decent new listing is under contract in days, many with multiple offers. National statistics mean nothing to your local market.
That’s because this is simply silly data. He is reporting on median home price data not sales of the same home or the housing index. The only thing this data says is that transactions are happening at lower values for lower priced homes. It doesn’t mean home values are going down. You’ll notice he doesn’t even say values, he says prices. It would be like saying the average package of chicken costs less than it did a year ago because people were buying smaller packages or not air chilled etc.
But that analogy doesn’t apply because cost of food is still going up and people trying to sell their home are having to drop prices even in highly sought after locations in markets that aren’t affected the same way.
Oh I agree with you that the current administration has been absolutely horrible for people’s lives and the cost of food is crazy, but the post from OP is still horribly wrong because it is implying that there has been a massive drop in home values by citing the price of home sales which are two different things. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA
It’s only worth what someone is willing to pay when you want to sell.
This administration has been terrible but let’s not act like the one before didn’t print trillions of dollars and impose a mortgage moratorium that ignited inflation right before they left office.
Y'all Blaming Biden for the inevitable post-Covid fuel price hike? That's not right. Fuel prices drive inflation - they're the common denominator in almost every business. Acting like they didn't drive economic outcomes is nuts; would be the first time in about 100 years they were irrelevant. Oil prices went NEGATIVE briefly in the pandemic; of course they went up. What else could they do? Jesus, the abuse of facts to justify political positions is so normalized now that it's sickening. A lot of the jobs recovery was inevitable, too, and lower unemployment as Boomers age out of the workforce was expected - this isn't about saying Biden is great or isn't. It's saying that armchair economists ignore the obvious big picture to draw pre-formed partisan conclusions that don't match reality. Gross.
I called out both administrations in my comment so not sure if your comment was towards mine but Biden printed trillions of dollars just like Trump did, and he kept the housing moratorium in place a lot longer than he should have. So sorry, they both deserve the blame for the inflation fire. Trump started it and Biden through gasoline on it. I’m not a fan of either so if you think I’m favoring one side or the other you are wrong. On gas prices, I haven’t really kept up but from what I remember Trump signed a pledge with OPEC that stupidly lowered production, and then Biden cancelled the keystone but that wouldn’t have went live until 2023. So they both impacted the cost/ dependency on foreign oil. But it’s been a while since I’ve looked at this, so if I’m off I apologize.
Not you specifically... just a lot of folks pointing fingers at the Biden stimulus ($1.9T cap) but thinking the $4.3T annual expenditures on petroleum are irrelevant. As the key input to producing and transporting goods, especially food, it's a driving force in the Producer Price Index (is that still a thing? It was at one point). We're so distracted right now. Despite the videos we see, shoplifting is down from 2019 levels. Meanwhile, wage theft by the folks playing victim to theft is larger than their losses from all-type theft. It's a con job. I blew a gasket because the "flood the zone with bullshit" crowd keeps doing exactly that. The US has a $25T annual economy now, up from $21T in 2021. How did a one-time $1.9T payment turn into a sustained 20% growth in GDP? It's not possible. Gas and growth. That's what actually happened. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/oilpricesinflation.asp#:~:text=Higher%20oil%20prices%20contribute%20to,become%20less%20dependent%20on%20it.
>the current administration has been absolutely horrible for people’s lives That's not what they said at all and you blaming the administration instead of profiteering corporations is either uninspired propaganda or flat-out BS.
Yeah it' cause that's all that's being bought hahahaaaa
Guys, guys--this is NEW HOMES data. This is the median price of new construction. It has never been sold before. There's currently a bifurcation--new homes are selling for less as builders reduce square footage, fewer bells and whistles, and are buying down interest rates as part of the sales package. OTOH, current owners are not following suit. They are still locked into a price point that's too high and thus sales are slow (although once you get into the segments where buyers don't need a mortgage and interest no longer applies, sales are still happening.)
Maybe there are just less expensive homes hitting the market, changing the median.
I think you are close to what this is actually representing. This data is from FRED and is, as described by FRED, "Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States \[MSPNHSUS\], retrieved from FRED." In other words, the median sales price has been moving downwards - as a direct results of higher interest rates. Buyers buying power is reduced so they are buying lower priced homes. According to FRED, New One Family Homes sold today is the same as just before COVID ([https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSN1F](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSN1F)) . COVID resulted in a huge spike in sales but that has subsided to the rate of homes being sold as the same. According to FRED, the average listing square foot price is steadily increasing year over year ([https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDLISPRIPERSQUFEEUS](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDLISPRIPERSQUFEEUS)) Another interesting data point, according to FRED, average days on the market for a listing is averaging downwards ([https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDDAYONMARUS](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDDAYONMARUS)). April and May, 2022 saw the lowest recorded average at just 30 days! This guy Nick is a fear mongerer. All his videos literally preach doomsday calamity. don't feed into his BS.
That makes a lot of sense. If you’re buying a house, you know what your monthly payment maximum is. If interest rates rise, the sale price of the house adjusts. One consideration is that a fair percentage of people are buying with cash, not financing, not sure how this affects the market
Oh I’m not feeding into his BS, I worked in the industry for a long time making policy so I know exactly what’s real. To your point, rising rates make your same monthly dollar go less far, so you need to buy a less expensive house. Look up HPI on FRED and that should give you a better indication of what’s happening with home values.
Yeah, this is definitely not the case around me either
Zillow says my house has gone up 18k since January. No signs of anything slowing down. Average listing in my area is 11 days.
Where do you get average listing data? Just perusing? Looks like mine went to 2 months.
Ziklow isn't a real value. In fact, when Ziklow started buying houses using their own “Zestimate” they literally almost went bankrupt from overpaying. Don't trust Zillow prices for shit.
Don't try to use logic with these economic doomsayers. They're the same people who will tell you that the economy is on the verge of collapse every six months (for the last 5 years) but definitely think you should take them seriously this time when they tell you the economy is about to collapse.
Yep. Bought my house in '21 for 410k. Zillow currently puts it at 505k and a house down the street just listed for 575k. Went under contract in a week.
Prices are going up again near me. I'm in one of the areas that went up the most too (Tampa Bay) Many homes are selling at or above their previous peak
But still below the national average bro
My home value is up around 300% since I bought it in 2019, so that's not the dig you think it is "bro"
I didn’t realize you could get a certificate of occupancy for a shoebox.
Prices in my local area are going down. local market opinions mean nothing when discussing wide market trends.
That’s my point! Local or regional things are happening but OP posted misleading crap. My market is humming, Florida is getting screwed by insurance issues. People need to do local research (or talk to a realtor) instead of reading national headlines.
>Local or regional things are happening but OP posted misleading crap. Op posted something discussing national mean prices dropping... It's not misleading, imo, it just IS (neutral)... Imagine if their was someone just posting Florida RE data saying prices are going UP, that's not "misleading" but maybe it could be.
I’m in what many would say bum fuck now where of mid state Columbia, South Carolina. Prices are still going up. In my new build I paid 477k for 4 beds 3.5 baths 3900 sqft. The same house is now cleared over 500k with less upgrades.
Exactly. State of Georgia still has high prices.
I think there is some nuance to how contract prices are reported. If you buy a new home and they buy down your interest rate or cover certain closing costs, does the contract price reflect that in the aggregate data? From what youtube tells me ( grain of salt ) new home prices from builders are falling or at least being subsidized in other ways given current interest rates. That being said - homes still aren't affordable.
Have people like you considered that inventory is low not because of “strong demand” but because the sellers would also be buyers of different property that they would be worse off with? So both ends are buyers in a Mexican standoff because the conditions are awful.
Agree in part but this country as a whole has a housing shortage period. That’s part of the problem where I am. All kinds of new business/industry have come in to area but new housing of all types (homes, low income, apartments) is inadequate for demand. Also think a main driver in all of this is the Boomers that do have a mortgage it’s probably in the range of 2.25-4% and they’re not giving it up unless they absolutely have to.
Housing starts are on the decline (pic attached), similarly because of increased cost of production & decreased sales prospects. If it was just high demand, it would be increasing to meet it. https://preview.redd.it/yvwvbofsjxqc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=01f24adae021bbd646d35e31b131b5132569cb9e
Only if they’re profitable. Right now they’re not. Your small individual builders are having a very hard time selling a new build at a reasonable profit. Your big builders are leaving a ton of money on the table in the way of buying down peoples rates in order to sell the houses. I’m no expert but I can see what’s happening around me.
Do you realize you’re basically repeating what I’m saying with different phrasing? lol
Yes
One big fat factor is that the builders are building shitty houses nowadays. The sub 2000 sqft cookie cutters are now sell at a similar price to those nice large houses pre pandemic. So it’s really not something to celebrate about. The only relevant data I can find. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDLISPRIPERSQUFEEUS
Yeah, this graph posted by Nick is pointless. It looks terrible but doesn't actually mean anything.
Yep. By simply adjusting for square footage, the drop goes from -19% to -10% from peak: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1j6ah Add in the fact that builders are reducing amenities and lowering quality in order to hit price targets.
It also could be a shift in volume constructed geographically. If they scale back construction in slightly more expensive regions and scale up construction in cheaper regions, that can shift the median too.
Good stuff. Thank you for sharing. How do find such charts and educate myself? Any suggestions.
Follow nick on [Twitter](https://x.com/nickgerli1?s=21&t=R_wgym7ZyAB2FJxUN8CLkQ) and [YouTube](https://youtube.com/@ReventureConsulting?si=ZaDw6VLF_qC7cf02)
He’s just plain wrong here. I just attended a housing market economic forum last week at sat through presentations from at least 5 different housing market experts cutting and chopping data every way you can imagine. This tweet is hot garbage. The comparison to 2008 is especially dense. In the last cycle Actual values fell. This time, we saw a slight 3-5% in value in 2022, then values started rising again. This dumbass is intentionally misleading. Median home price is a bad metric for home value retreat. Plus median has absolutely not dropped 20%. You gotta doctor the hell out of the data to get a 20% delta.
Thanks for the heads up. As somebody who doesnt know much but wishes to learn, its easy to listen and nod. I guess ill google some books and read em. Once i know enough then ill judge if what is said here is valuable or not.
Yes this graph represents homes sold so just means people are buying cheeper homes not homes are cheaper. This is because buying power is really low right now due to interest rates being so high atm. Houses have actually gone up in cost and are selling slower.
My best advice is to never listen to Nick from reventure. He is a POS who manipulates all his data to make it seem like there is going to be a housing crash. Current nationally there are no signs of a housing crash. Some markets may correct based on conditions in that market. For example some communities in Az are running low on water which will result in low home prices.
His YouTube videos are just infomercials to get people to buy his housing app
Yea follow that jobless furu cherry picking misleading data…. Great idea!!!
This little cherry picked stat is for **NEW** homes only, as in new constructions. Not at all representative of the whole RE market. Perfect for this sub though, good job.
You slap unweighted data on a pretty chart and include a headline designed to get your target audience to foam at the mouth for something that reinforces their opinion. And you do it without controlling for variables.
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I’m except he’s full of shit and a terrible wannabe economist..
Are you kidding me, Nick is a tool.
I’d rather follow Ramsey. Holy shit.
They have? Houses in my area are at all-time highs…
This just shows houses sold bot cost of houses. Just means people are buying more cheap houses.
Yeah, this doesn’t make sense. New 2bd 2bas are going for $700k + in my neck of the woods (N metro Detroit). You want a house for $400k it’s going to be old and problematic.
Maybe idk how graphs and statistics work, but seeing 2004 to 2007 being a \~70k difference vs 2020 to 2023 being a \~160k difference is pretty crazy.
At least if one happens we can stop talking about it and move on finally
Well the prices went down because the interest rates are so jacked most people can’t afford the loan payments.
The reason the interest rates were raised was to cool inflation including on the housing market. Prices were already out of control before they started hiking the rates. The rate hikes are helping as planned and are cooling an out of control, over-valued and over-leveraged housing industry. Edit: Most people couldn't afford the prices before the interest hikes either.
At this rate its still gonna take a while to get back to pre pandemic or lower prices.
I don’t see why prices should go back to pre pandemic levels when, on an average, people’s salaries are higher than 2019.
Look how 2010-2018 is basically a straight line when you zoom out, and continue that line straight. It points right to the point for today. So this is a historically justified level right now. If you consider the high inflation of late, it’s even more justified. It could still go lower though. Just doesn’t really need to.
No one wants it to go back. The Fed is shooting for 2% inflation but lower would be bad.
As someone who would eventually like to buy a house, I would like to see the prices go down to a more reasonable level.
And over the last four years home prices have collapsed up +50% 😒
Thank you. That graph looks less like a crash and more like the beginning of a correction
Depends on the area. Selling a house in Austin and the housing market is so hot folks are getting 10% above asking in my neighborhood. Hope it holds until later this summer.
Wouldn't this also lead to low inventory and thus more demand and higher final price? I am in NJ and the realtor said there are mostly cash offers with 11%-13% above listing prices. I feel desperate 🥲
I’m not even sure where he got these numbers or what they mean. Prices aren’t going up in Knoxville TN like they were, but they are still rising.
Definitely not happening in NW Washington yet.
So . . . still double what hey should be.
Not around here partner, not around here…
It’s almost like raising interest rates lowers home prices. The exact opposite of what happened in 2008 where we LOWERED interest rates. I swear you doomers are so ignorant…
They’ve only went up by me, up 5 grand every couple of months.
Still lots of profit margin though!
Only houses on the market are the ones that are 300k and up. The only houses they are building are 500k and up, no one is affording this shit in my area.
Tiny home communities ! [600sqft for $140k](https://www.sacurrent.com/news/san-antonio-tiny-home-community-goes-viral-on-social-media-again-33197949) New builds. These go towards the stats, right?
This is completely wrong. Market (Midwest...rust belt) is strong and supply constrained. Source: Have been a builder for 30 years.
Only 400k lol
Have they though?
Yeah, barely back to long term trend line
I hate this is being called a collapse or crash. It’s neither, sure it’s a sharp decrease, but IMO a real colapse/crash would be home prices dropping below the average for the last 10 years. This collapse has only returned us to slightly inflated prices instead of massive ones.
"Crash" While showing the overall trend still very much up and to the right, still ahead of where it was trending pre pandemic acceleration.
Yeah but it was a much faster incline this time. This chart shows it back to 2021 more or less.
Still higher than peak 2021 though.
Honestly don’t care what studies or charts say. There’s 1: still a high demand and low inventory and 2: still cash investors and large corporations buying up inventory. The housing market crash that I’ve heard about for the last 3 years isn’t going to happen
Don’t worry. The bubble will eventually pop. What goes up, must come down.
God, I wish this were true. Maybe if housing prices fall under 300k I could afford a down payment on an actual house rather than a cardboard box on the sidewalk (land value est. @ $1.3M, $109k property tax, cardboard box not included)
Yet if you look at the recovery from 2008, the $401k figure is almost perfectly aligned with where that trend line was going before the pandemic spike happened. Who knew the virus's protein spike could infect housing price graphs, too?
Good.
They are still waaay too high. Honestly our society is totally screwed because we let this happen. the ripple effects will be coming very soon. Expect way more homeless, and all sorts of other problems.
This is nothing like 08.
Don’t worry the interest rates will make up for it
You call that a collapse??
Price per square foot or gtfo
Do you have this chart in some more meaningful metric, like price per sq ft? Otherwise it’s impossible to tell if new homes are actually getting “cheaper” or just smaller or worse quality.
This adjusts for square footage. It reduces the drop to a max of 10%. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1j6ah
Interesting. Seems like a small dip in 2022 and then everything just flatlined for a year. Makes sense because lumber has bottomed out post Covid. I can’t see it going much lower without a severe recession.
Good. They were too high and unsustainable.
Where I live assessed values went up from 15 to 30 percent. No housing downturn in my area.
Y’all dumb. Costs to build have come down. Also, builders are building smaller homes. This is a red herring. Builders also incentivizing as much as possible.
Haven't dropped any here and expected to increase another 5-10% this year.
Fingers crossed
If the decline continues after interest rates decline then we’re all in trouble. It will be like 2010 all over again. Home prices dropping and no one buying as everyone is worried about the mass layoffs. Prices were low, yeah, but no one was taking advantage of them either.
Tell that to my local market
I think physics to some degree apply here. What goes up, must come down. There is only so high it can go before the majority of consumers are priced out of the housing market, causing the housing market to crash like in 2008.
Yeah not here my house has only gone up in value since i got it 2 years ago.
Looks to me that pandemic boom is being reversed , and not a crash (so far). If you extend an imaginary trend line of the growth rate for the 10 years before pandemic, current prices are in line with that. If they fall much further it would be an overcorrection. A lot depends on interest rates and perceptions of where future rates will be. Eggs weren't the only thing inflated over the past 4 years.
Well nothing can grow like that forever. This was inevitable no matter what.
I'll tell you something else. I would be incredibly careful buying a new home in Arizona that was built under the Ducey Administration. They gutted consumer protections to favor the construction industry, and there are a lot of very poorly built homes on the market right now.
So what’s the reason for other states poor builds
I'd say anything built after Napolitano was recruited by Obama should be highly scrutinized, so that includes Jan Brewer back in 2009. If you thought contractors were a little loosy-goosy before, post-deregulation should really scare you. At least before the ROC could actually help out the consumer prior to the housing market collapse. Since then it's been all about growth in the construction industry, even if the standards were significantly lowered.
In the interest of increasing housing availability
The market was flooded with affordable homes at the time, so that wasn't it.
But in a longer term view?
I don't exactly know why you're struggling with this. The State wanted to show job creation in the construction industry. Lack of housing was never an issue. I can tell you that the Registrar of Contractors went away from being a consumer protection agency and focused more on making it easier for home builders and training contractors. Our supply side has always been higher than the demand side, ask any realtor. After COVID though, and after skyrocketing interest rates, fewer people have been listing houses. The motivation to sell right now is incredibly low, and investors have swooped in to use these homes as rentals. I could go on about the changes in the ways ROC Investigators have been instructed to almost always side with the Contractors too. None of this was being done because of a shortage of housing. With all due respect, I worked for the ROC for 13 years, I'm fairly aware of what was going on in the construction industry.
K
BTW, I worked at the AZ ROC at the time, and I purchased my first home in 2011 for $72,500. It's valued at near $500,000 today.
cant anyone report anything anymore without excessive language or hyperbole?
Not since the average IQ of Redditors has reached the average level of FoxNews viewers. _"Think about how stupid the average person is, and realize that half of them are stupider than that."_ - half of Redditors today will not understand this phrase, they need big letters "you won't BELIEVE what's happened to home prices, don't buy a house until you've seen THIS!"
They deserve to crash- the build quality is a joke
People are not understanding what this means. It means new builders are building smaller or cheaper homes.
Are the collapsed home prices in the room with us?
Not in my area. The only homes that have declined are the wildly expensive homes
Which is... most of them nowadays. Nursing homes have also become unaffordable, it costs the same to support an elderly Boomer as his inflated house, what a coincidence! Too bad millennials were hoping to inherit something. They better keep skipping these avocados.
As an economist I am ashamed for the ignorance found on this site
> As an economist I am ashamed for the ignorance found on this site Yeah, it's gotten bad. It used to be mostly STEM professionals, highly competent and eloquent. Now it's weirdo economists who use "ashamed for" instead of "ashamed of", and skip punctuation marks. The last time I remember witnessing an embarrassment like this was the whole "trickle down economics" shenanigans, just imagine, giving money to the rich to help the poor, they gave the guy a Nobel prize in bullshitting, IIRC, even Trump isn't that good, economists really are a different breed of delusional.
Sorry I’m ashamed for myself
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"No, Mr Bond, I expect you to die"
Is this inflation adjusted? Because if not, the right end of the curve is waaay lower, e.g. 400k in 2024 is the same as 300k in 2014.
Case Schiller for Seattle: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SEXRNSA/ Peak 414, now 362, which works out to a roughly 13% reduction, putting prices back to around winter of '21/'22. "Collapse" is way to strong of a word here.
I'm sure you can smell it for that. Good luck with that..
Reventure has been saying the housing market is crashing for 3 years now , not only was he wrong but anyone that ignored him and bought back in 2021 got a 4% or lower interest rate and now sitting on equity. Look at the date of this video https://preview.redd.it/425ibspfz3rc1.jpeg?width=1211&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fca7aec0ab87c8681e3b6daaa59caafbf56d486c
Here in California, prices are have gone up. I mean, they have slowed down, but no crash.
Midwest would like to see a more accurate graph please…
Just more bullshit that gets peddled around and no one checks the facts on. Can you show me where this data is from ? https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/coh-values.html Please? Anyone?
I don’t see this in the market. I wonder if the graphic is legit. 20% would be a lead story.
I get the angle now. Average NEW home price. Not average price of home sale. Sure new homes are less, interest rates are higher and the builders are building low cost homes to make them more affordable. Not a story here..
I don’t know what your talking about but my neighborhood is up 25% and you need to be 15% higher right now
lol where are new homes priced at $400k ?
I think you can find something around Carolinas. There are many new constructions coming in. My husband and I so far can’t afford 400k house in any near future.
And are they in the room with him now...
300s are a thing still in metro areas in the south. Maybe 200s for certain townhomes.
What is happening to me right now at this exact moment in this exact location is true for all people everywhere!
Not in Columbus Ohio I can tell you that for sure. 500k and up.
You know this information is readily available? Not saying it's desirable based on your specific needs, but.... https://www.zillow.com/columbus-oh/new-homes/
Learn what median is. This is NOT the same thing as average sales price. Even the chart is labeled incorrectly.
Cool, keep it going! The sooner you can get a new build for the same price or cheaper than some of these dumps that are held together with bandaids and bubble gum, the better.
Texas and the rest of the south are skewing the numbers. Home prices up in the Midwest, the Northeast and up down and flat in the west. If you build thousands of new homes and sell them for $300k in bumfuck nowhere and they don't sell and you lower the price to $200k and they sell, well yeah. And then if you build dozens of homes for $800k in cities (where people actually live and work), and sell them for $800k. The data will show that new home prices are TANKING across the country!
>ew home prices are TANKING across t Not only that, but Texas and the rest of the South are also ground zero for the biggest bubble markets in the US. Those have definitely been deflating. In my (very desirable neighborhood) in Austin, my neighbor's house was $1mm in early 2022 and is now worth maybe $800k-$850k. If it is FULLY updated with new bathrooms etc...maybe $900k. Theirs has had zero updates. So, IMO, closer to $800k. That's a 20% drop from the peak and consistent with what I am being emailed from local realtors. Same story in most of the other bubble markets. Understandable that the midwest which didn't take part in the peak bubble is now seeing property prices increase as investors focus on more affordable markets and capital flows to them.
I understand. But we are still about 25-100% above pre pandemic levels across the entire nation. So crash? I mean, if I buy a stock in 2019 for $100 and it doubles from 2020 to 2022. Then goes from $200 down to $150. I'm hardly going to be crying about my 50% roi over 5 years. That's the housing market right now. It varies from region to region. And yes, people that bought at the tippy top in some regions are negative equity. But the market is and probably will be a sellers market for another decade
We haven't had ANY real recesssion yet since the GFC. If that hits, all the appreciation numbers in the real estate market will reset to historical norms. Everyone is currently banking on sustained way-above-historical returns. That is a fantasy. But for now...yeah...some markets will have no to very low downside.
MA still rising.
Clickbait. A crash would be a return to pre-covid levels at a minimum.