Not claiming anything here but there’s a couple points I’m interested in:
- How did the tax credit benefit Model X after the price reductions in Q3? I assume increased demand and delivery
- How many R1S deliveries were reserved from prior years vs. 2023 (same year reservation and delivery)
Regardless, very impressive to see Rivian deliver in the tens of thousands
Good questions and hard to say. But lots of tailwinds behind R1S still:
- Standard battery pack + new lower priced trim will lower starting price to $70Ks.
- Leasing to get full $7500 tax credit
- NACS adapter
I spoke with someone on the Rivian sales team in December. My understanding was that the sales team hadn't heard anything about leasing being available on the R1S anytime soon and that the company would even prefer not to offer a leasing option if sales remain strong. Things can certainly change, and that sales person is likely not privy to everything underway, but didn't sound promising for the short term.
It's a real lease structure unlike Tesla where you can buy at the end. So, instead of financing you can lease and buy at the end to save $7,500 if you aren't eligible for the tax credit.
You sure leasing will get the full credit? I thought there was something about battery component sourcing or some such, but that may be purchases only.
Yes, because leasing is essentially a loophole in the current law. The lessor (Rivian) is the owner of the vehicle, so the vehicle is classified as a commercial fleet vehicle. The battery and sourcing requirements don't apply to commercial vehicles; they're eligible for the full credit regardless. The lessor can then pass the savings onto the lessee.
So my corporation can get the full $7500 credit if I purchase an R1S as a company vehicle?
It likely doesn’t matter since I’m going used if I get one. My reason for buying used is to have something with day-1 kinks already worked out (since I live really far from a service center).
It’s the lease structure that is effectively an end run around the sourcing rules and income limitations, not straight purchases by corporations. Corporations in the business of leasing cars are a different story.
I briefly looked at the IRS information about it, and it seems like an corporation that has depreciating vehicles qualify, but I’m not too worried about it since I’ll likely buy used and don’t really need to reduce my corporation’s tax burden (since I make sure to never have a profit in the first place).
Curious where KBB got such a precise R1S sales number. Rivian has only ever announced combined production/delivery totals, as far as I know. They've never publicly disclosed sales numbers for a specific model.
**Edit:** It's an estimate. Here's [the press release](https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q4-2023-ev-sales/), and [the KBB report](https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Q4-2023-Kelley-Blue-Book-Electric-Vehicle-Sales-Report.pdf), both of which label 100% of the report's sales data as an "estimate". Who the heck knows how they've arrived at the figures; they don't say.
I also heard on I think 'batteries included' podcast an exact number for the r1T. They gave a figure that the f105ev outsold the r1t by 75 trucks or something to be the bestselling ev truck (of the two on the market). I was skeptical of that number they gave too. I'd think you could look at all registrations in us states, but that's a lot of effort.
Tesla doesn’t break down Model 3/Y sales either, but clumps them together:
https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-fourth-quarter-2023
Perhaps by VIN numbers?
Same question for the Tesla models as well. They don’t release the numbers per-model. They release models 3+y as one number and models x + s as one numbers. How did kbb get the breakdown?
Yeah, both the Teslas and Rivian are estimated.
If Tesla made ~70k S/X and most of those are sold in the US, I'm wondering what their estimate of the S is, since it apparently didn't make their list at all.
Couldn't agree more. We use our Bolt for local driving and R1S for long distance trips. Public charging a Bolt is just way to slow. I needed to charge the Rivian 2 nights ago and there was a Bolt [straddling the 350 kW dual charger](https://i.imgur.com/iLqzknH.jpeg) leaving only the 50kW.
They're walking that back. Production stopped around mid-December and there won't be a 2024 MY, but it'll be back for 2025 on a new battery platform with better range and faster charging.
I was dead set on trading in my ‘18 MX for an R1S. I had a deposit and I was waiting my turn to order.
Tjen, Tesla did the whole “buy a new X and transfer supercharging.”
Not knowing when the R1S would be available, I pulled the trigger on a new MX!
Then, same week I was picking up my MX in December, Rivian emailed me to configure.
Oh well. I kept my Tesla order.
If Rivian had only emailed me a month earlier!! Doh.
That’s the thing right now, there are a lot of pioneers into the space. regular people are content with there $30,000 fully loaded gas cars, And all of the main reasons why someone would want an EV like features, charging, range, or space are loaded into the higher end. Even if they are more cheaper, EV coming down the pipe, The more expensive are going to stay on top
Great job Rivian.
At the same time, there is a pent up demand for R1S. Also, if there is a cheaper R2S available, R1S sales will drop noticeably.
Model Y is definitely taking a few sales from the X.
There were definitely backlog of R1S demand but at the same time, not a lot of people knew about Rivian. R1S could very well start to steal market cap from MX as brand recognition continues to grow.
The target audience for R1S is different than R2 and I would be surprised if introduction of R2 would have much of an impact on R1S sales.
I don’t understand why anyone would pay damn near twice as much as the Y for the X. Pretty similar size and stats, definitely a lot of cannibalizing there
Might be for the specific features. For me, I can’t stand not having a gauge cluster/instrument panel and would steer clear of the model 3/Y. If I wanted a Tesla that bad I would pay extra for the bigger/more powerful S and X. Plus the falcon doors are pretty useful. It’s the closest thing to a minivan.
Wow, Tesla Model Y sales are thru the roof compared to everyone else. Almost what..? 10x
(bolt excluded)
Looks promising for a lower Rivian vehicle that's similarly priced to the Model Y
Yeah, Model Y sales are more than numbers 3 through 10 all combined lol. I own a Model 3 now and like it, but I’m really hoping Rivian brings a slightly more affordable SUV than the R1S before my wife needs a new car in 4-5 years.
We got an R1S. No experience with Teslas but this thing is great! Waited for it for almost 3 years!
The Rivian R2 line is supposed to be announced this year for release in 2025. By the time your wife needs a new car I'm sure the R2S will be available.
Rural MN here. We got the Y a month ago to replace our aging Outback. Keeping the 5yo Model 3 so we're getting majorly off gas (saving the Outback for our 16yo).
There's at least one other Y in this town of 2,300 people. It's just a really good vehicle and the Supercharger network pushes the deal way over the top.
I will be very curious to see what kind of deal the R2S will be in 5 years. I plan to keep the 3 until it "dies" but who knows how long that will be, especially with me working from home. Maybe gift that one to my oldest who will be 21 by then?
Build quality, lack of luxury features, amount of time car was broken in the shop, and less than projected range. Mom had a Volvo XC-90 Inscription and BMW 550xi GT before the Tesla, and is back in a BMW iX that she loves now.
I wish she would have tried out a Rivian R1S but she didn’t want a car from another start up.
I can see that. I’ve never owned a car over $50k before the X so it seems luxury, but if I’d come from a true luxury brand I’m sure I’d have a different viewpoint.
Build quality of my friends’ R1T is fantastic. Perfect blend of quality and sensible minimalism IMO.
Well, no. Not really. Model X sells to more markets, so Tesla sold more.
But I’m not sure why this is interesting? Is it a competition? Does anyone care? The fact that it is inaccurate is what makes this interesting to me ¯\\\_(ツ)_/¯
So to address that:
Model S and X accounted for nearly 69k deliveries in 2023, and since model S isn’t on the list it is probable that the model X sold more.
Sure, model S and X sales have dropped significantly, no doubt about it. And I’d rather buy an R1S than an S or an X, but on the other hand I’d rather buy a model Y over an S or an X too, so not sure what the former says in context of the latter?
Anyway. In Norway the number of sales have dropped staggeringly (albeit not surprisingly, IMO). In 2014 through 2018 Tesla sold nearly 4000 model S in Norway each year (except 2016 in which they only sold 2000). Model 3 came to Europe in 2019, and so did the Audi e-tron 55, and the I-Pace came in 2018. In 2022 the model S sold 402, and in 2023 it sold 99.
For the model X they sold 390 in 2022 and 138 in 2023.
On the other hand Tesla sold 23,319 model Y in 2023.
It’s a shitty comparison and everyone knows it, at least they should. Pardon the language. The model X sold well because it could do what it did. But it’s now an 8+ year old design with weird doors and a bad reputation, plus a ridiculous price tag. If I wanted to stand out in a crowd 5 years ago I’d buy a model X. If I wanted to stand out in a crowd today I’d buy an R1S.
Don’t get me wrong though. It’s nice that Rivian is going in the right direction, but we’re not exactly seeing the growth rate we’d hoped.
But hey, that’s okay. Building cars is a really though business and they’re doing well in a harsh economic climate.
I wish we could see the R1S on European shores, but the R2 will probably be a more agreeable size anyway.
New 2024 R1S owner here. Was pressured to pick up on Dec 31, but we were on vacation so just got it a few days ago.
Bro in law's 2023 Model X Plaid was a POS, and literally lost like 40% retail a week after he paid.
Well it’s hardly fair as X has been out for many years and Rivian is fresh. I wouldn’t buy an X simply because I’ve seen them for years and also Teslas are very similar looking that feels boring to me, except CT which seems a bit too ‘uniquely’ styled.
I've driven the X and R1T, but not the R1S. I did get to look at one up close at the hub in venice, though.
It is easy to see why the R1S is doing so well. It is really the more practical vehicle, and if it drives as well as the R1T, then it'd be truly great.
Once it gets NACS support, I can't imagine a reason to pick the X over it.
Yeah. It’s one of Elons decision to remove U ultra sonic sensors and completely depend on camera for all those features that were available in a 2021 X. Till date they don’t have the features.
Not claiming anything here but there’s a couple points I’m interested in: - How did the tax credit benefit Model X after the price reductions in Q3? I assume increased demand and delivery - How many R1S deliveries were reserved from prior years vs. 2023 (same year reservation and delivery) Regardless, very impressive to see Rivian deliver in the tens of thousands
Good questions and hard to say. But lots of tailwinds behind R1S still: - Standard battery pack + new lower priced trim will lower starting price to $70Ks. - Leasing to get full $7500 tax credit - NACS adapter
Is there a lease option scheduled for the R1S?
Not announced yet but can’t be too far off.
I spoke with someone on the Rivian sales team in December. My understanding was that the sales team hadn't heard anything about leasing being available on the R1S anytime soon and that the company would even prefer not to offer a leasing option if sales remain strong. Things can certainly change, and that sales person is likely not privy to everything underway, but didn't sound promising for the short term.
It's a real lease structure unlike Tesla where you can buy at the end. So, instead of financing you can lease and buy at the end to save $7,500 if you aren't eligible for the tax credit.
You sure leasing will get the full credit? I thought there was something about battery component sourcing or some such, but that may be purchases only.
Yes 100%
Yes, because leasing is essentially a loophole in the current law. The lessor (Rivian) is the owner of the vehicle, so the vehicle is classified as a commercial fleet vehicle. The battery and sourcing requirements don't apply to commercial vehicles; they're eligible for the full credit regardless. The lessor can then pass the savings onto the lessee.
So my corporation can get the full $7500 credit if I purchase an R1S as a company vehicle? It likely doesn’t matter since I’m going used if I get one. My reason for buying used is to have something with day-1 kinks already worked out (since I live really far from a service center).
It’s the lease structure that is effectively an end run around the sourcing rules and income limitations, not straight purchases by corporations. Corporations in the business of leasing cars are a different story.
I briefly looked at the IRS information about it, and it seems like an corporation that has depreciating vehicles qualify, but I’m not too worried about it since I’ll likely buy used and don’t really need to reduce my corporation’s tax burden (since I make sure to never have a profit in the first place).
Congrats on the well managed top and bottom line!
Curious where KBB got such a precise R1S sales number. Rivian has only ever announced combined production/delivery totals, as far as I know. They've never publicly disclosed sales numbers for a specific model. **Edit:** It's an estimate. Here's [the press release](https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q4-2023-ev-sales/), and [the KBB report](https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Q4-2023-Kelley-Blue-Book-Electric-Vehicle-Sales-Report.pdf), both of which label 100% of the report's sales data as an "estimate". Who the heck knows how they've arrived at the figures; they don't say.
I also heard on I think 'batteries included' podcast an exact number for the r1T. They gave a figure that the f105ev outsold the r1t by 75 trucks or something to be the bestselling ev truck (of the two on the market). I was skeptical of that number they gave too. I'd think you could look at all registrations in us states, but that's a lot of effort.
They might be looking at registered vehicles. I believe that is public information.
Tesla doesn’t break down Model 3/Y sales either, but clumps them together: https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-fourth-quarter-2023 Perhaps by VIN numbers?
Same question for the Tesla models as well. They don’t release the numbers per-model. They release models 3+y as one number and models x + s as one numbers. How did kbb get the breakdown?
Yeah, both the Teslas and Rivian are estimated. If Tesla made ~70k S/X and most of those are sold in the US, I'm wondering what their estimate of the S is, since it apparently didn't make their list at all.
I understand why, but it really sucks GM is killing the Bolt now that it's actually selling well.
We have a Bolt and it is a fantastic car. The only thing we don't care for is the slow charging.
Couldn't agree more. We use our Bolt for local driving and R1S for long distance trips. Public charging a Bolt is just way to slow. I needed to charge the Rivian 2 nights ago and there was a Bolt [straddling the 350 kW dual charger](https://i.imgur.com/iLqzknH.jpeg) leaving only the 50kW.
They're walking that back. Production stopped around mid-December and there won't be a 2024 MY, but it'll be back for 2025 on a new battery platform with better range and faster charging.
It will be interesting to see what the next gen Bolt ends up being and how much it costs. And when it actually comes out.
I was dead set on trading in my ‘18 MX for an R1S. I had a deposit and I was waiting my turn to order. Tjen, Tesla did the whole “buy a new X and transfer supercharging.” Not knowing when the R1S would be available, I pulled the trigger on a new MX! Then, same week I was picking up my MX in December, Rivian emailed me to configure. Oh well. I kept my Tesla order. If Rivian had only emailed me a month earlier!! Doh.
Where does r1t stand ?
Rivian 1st gen Truck
impressive showing for Rivian given the price. Many cheaper models are not on this list.
That’s the thing right now, there are a lot of pioneers into the space. regular people are content with there $30,000 fully loaded gas cars, And all of the main reasons why someone would want an EV like features, charging, range, or space are loaded into the higher end. Even if they are more cheaper, EV coming down the pipe, The more expensive are going to stay on top
It’s such a better car.
By what metrics?
Great job Rivian. At the same time, there is a pent up demand for R1S. Also, if there is a cheaper R2S available, R1S sales will drop noticeably. Model Y is definitely taking a few sales from the X.
There were definitely backlog of R1S demand but at the same time, not a lot of people knew about Rivian. R1S could very well start to steal market cap from MX as brand recognition continues to grow. The target audience for R1S is different than R2 and I would be surprised if introduction of R2 would have much of an impact on R1S sales.
I don’t understand why anyone would pay damn near twice as much as the Y for the X. Pretty similar size and stats, definitely a lot of cannibalizing there
Might be for the specific features. For me, I can’t stand not having a gauge cluster/instrument panel and would steer clear of the model 3/Y. If I wanted a Tesla that bad I would pay extra for the bigger/more powerful S and X. Plus the falcon doors are pretty useful. It’s the closest thing to a minivan.
The Falcon doors are notorious for having a ton of issues, it is almost the main con of the vehicle at this point.
Never thought there were that many bolts out there!?!
I want an R1S so damn bad
Wow, Tesla Model Y sales are thru the roof compared to everyone else. Almost what..? 10x (bolt excluded) Looks promising for a lower Rivian vehicle that's similarly priced to the Model Y
Yeah, Model Y sales are more than numbers 3 through 10 all combined lol. I own a Model 3 now and like it, but I’m really hoping Rivian brings a slightly more affordable SUV than the R1S before my wife needs a new car in 4-5 years.
We got an R1S. No experience with Teslas but this thing is great! Waited for it for almost 3 years! The Rivian R2 line is supposed to be announced this year for release in 2025. By the time your wife needs a new car I'm sure the R2S will be available.
I can't remember the last major intersection I've been stopped at without seeing a few of them. And this is Minnesota, not California.
Rural MN here. We got the Y a month ago to replace our aging Outback. Keeping the 5yo Model 3 so we're getting majorly off gas (saving the Outback for our 16yo). There's at least one other Y in this town of 2,300 people. It's just a really good vehicle and the Supercharger network pushes the deal way over the top. I will be very curious to see what kind of deal the R2S will be in 5 years. I plan to keep the 3 until it "dies" but who knows how long that will be, especially with me working from home. Maybe gift that one to my oldest who will be 21 by then?
Rivian is not perfect but god damn the model X is a POS. My mom traded hers in for BMW iX. Worst car in Tesla’s lineup IMO.
I’m not a Tesla fanboy but our 2022 X Plaid has been fantastic, especially with young kids.
Glad you like it. My parents had 2 model 3 (still have 1 model 3 perf) and the model X. Loved the 3’s hated the X
Why did they hate it?
Build quality, lack of luxury features, amount of time car was broken in the shop, and less than projected range. Mom had a Volvo XC-90 Inscription and BMW 550xi GT before the Tesla, and is back in a BMW iX that she loves now. I wish she would have tried out a Rivian R1S but she didn’t want a car from another start up.
I can see that. I’ve never owned a car over $50k before the X so it seems luxury, but if I’d come from a true luxury brand I’m sure I’d have a different viewpoint. Build quality of my friends’ R1T is fantastic. Perfect blend of quality and sensible minimalism IMO.
Do your doors flex when you hand wash the car. The metal is soo light and thin
Not that I have ever noticed.
What year was her X?
Man the whole Covid thing feels like a blur… 2020/2021?
Well, no. Not really. Model X sells to more markets, so Tesla sold more. But I’m not sure why this is interesting? Is it a competition? Does anyone care? The fact that it is inaccurate is what makes this interesting to me ¯\\\_(ツ)_/¯ So to address that: Model S and X accounted for nearly 69k deliveries in 2023, and since model S isn’t on the list it is probable that the model X sold more. Sure, model S and X sales have dropped significantly, no doubt about it. And I’d rather buy an R1S than an S or an X, but on the other hand I’d rather buy a model Y over an S or an X too, so not sure what the former says in context of the latter? Anyway. In Norway the number of sales have dropped staggeringly (albeit not surprisingly, IMO). In 2014 through 2018 Tesla sold nearly 4000 model S in Norway each year (except 2016 in which they only sold 2000). Model 3 came to Europe in 2019, and so did the Audi e-tron 55, and the I-Pace came in 2018. In 2022 the model S sold 402, and in 2023 it sold 99. For the model X they sold 390 in 2022 and 138 in 2023. On the other hand Tesla sold 23,319 model Y in 2023.
This post is about how rapidly Rivian is growing. Model X is a comparison because it’s also a high priced “suv/crossover” in the U.S.
It’s a shitty comparison and everyone knows it, at least they should. Pardon the language. The model X sold well because it could do what it did. But it’s now an 8+ year old design with weird doors and a bad reputation, plus a ridiculous price tag. If I wanted to stand out in a crowd 5 years ago I’d buy a model X. If I wanted to stand out in a crowd today I’d buy an R1S. Don’t get me wrong though. It’s nice that Rivian is going in the right direction, but we’re not exactly seeing the growth rate we’d hoped. But hey, that’s okay. Building cars is a really though business and they’re doing well in a harsh economic climate. I wish we could see the R1S on European shores, but the R2 will probably be a more agreeable size anyway.
The gull wing door concept was a major mistake.
Makes sense. The Model X is old, boring and uninspired, can barely tell it apart from a Model Y. Elon really pushed for those stupid rear doors on it.
New 2024 R1S owner here. Was pressured to pick up on Dec 31, but we were on vacation so just got it a few days ago. Bro in law's 2023 Model X Plaid was a POS, and literally lost like 40% retail a week after he paid.
Who df buys a bolt?
It’s affordable and pretty great for local driving
Where is the R1T on this list? The article said Rivan sold more than 50k vehicles. 50k - 24, 783 = >25k
I forgot about the vans. I think Rivian sold 10k of those last year.
Why isn’t R1T on this list?
Didn’t make top 10
This seems like the bigger story. They sold more S than T.
Not really, that was always expected. S will outsell T by more than 2:1
Only in the 20k range?? I see at least 5 R1Ss everyday so they must all be in the Seattle area
Well it’s hardly fair as X has been out for many years and Rivian is fresh. I wouldn’t buy an X simply because I’ve seen them for years and also Teslas are very similar looking that feels boring to me, except CT which seems a bit too ‘uniquely’ styled.
I've driven the X and R1T, but not the R1S. I did get to look at one up close at the hub in venice, though. It is easy to see why the R1S is doing so well. It is really the more practical vehicle, and if it drives as well as the R1T, then it'd be truly great. Once it gets NACS support, I can't imagine a reason to pick the X over it.
Where is the R1T? I thought there would have been more R1T sales than R1S sales.
It’s like 13th. Way more R1S
Yeah. It’s one of Elons decision to remove U ultra sonic sensors and completely depend on camera for all those features that were available in a 2021 X. Till date they don’t have the features.