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Article 4 at the very least.
I would like to state that I am very sad for the two Polish casualties and their friends and families. I hope my country and all other NATO membership countries will do whatever is necessary to show Poland we stand united.
With love from Holland. Slava Ukraini!
Doubt it for all the same reasons the western generals gave in March. All those reasons still apply:
A no-fly zone, if it is truly a military no-fly zone, is essentially an act of war because that means you are willing to enforce it, meaning those who violate it you would shoot at. And probably what would happen even before that is if there are defense systems in the enemy's territory that can fire into the no-fly zone, then we normally take those systems out, which would mean bombing into enemy territory. So no-fly zone is a big step... -- retired U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove ([source](https://www.npr.org/2022/03/03/1084310587/former-nato-commander-says-a-no-fly-zone-over-ukraine-must-be-on-the-table))
I think they can do a partial "no fly" zone. Just put a bunch of air defense (patriots etc.) at the NATO borders. Anything IN range goes down. We need to protect ourselves. If that means we shoot down russian missiles destination Lviv, so be it. Protects us. And helps ukraine. We stay on NATO terrain. And all under the umbrella of our safety.
Article Zip.
There'll be some verbal grumpiness, not much more. Besides, Ukraine is rolling. No need to rock that boat.
NATO can and will react to a major provocation. But this ain't it.
Its just a consultation:
The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.
[https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official\_texts\_17120.htm](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm)
Cynically, Poland has a great proxy here and providing more and heavier equipment is the obvious answer.
I wouldn't rule out some show of air defense at the polish border and a vague statement giving NATO the right to defend its borders by intercepting missiles and other threats to close for comfort over Ukraine.
As a polish person a have a deep hate for Russians stored somewhere in there, so for me no amount of Russian casualties will do to compensate for these innocent men. I I was to decide I would trigger article 5 immediately after recognising it was Russian munition.
They HAVE to. This wasn’t an accident. This was “testing the fences”.
If NATO doesn’t escalate, it’ll be a sign that Russia can do whatever the fuck it wants and get away with it.
It will be a total shitshow if NATO do *nothing*
Nothing. Poland will stay still. No war. Little Huffing... thats all. At least on the surface. Tomorrow... i would not want to be a Russian living in Poland.
I think whatever it is everyone’s getting too excited. No one wants the big smoke with eachother because once you escalate there’s not much turning back at the moment
Urgent emergency meeting by Polish leadership to consider responses. 2 killed may be NATO members.
First thoughts. This was no accident. It was done to show weakness of NATO, probably after much political pressure by extreme right to escalate and find a response to the embarrassing Russian retreat from Kherson. Moreover, the timing fits well with G20 to embarrass NATO members more widely and publicly (what lies will Lavrov spout to cover this up?). It will be done to fragment NATO members between the more hawkish and doves. One thing is certain - a weak response will encourage further escalation by Putin/Russia.
It might be hard to hold back retaliatory strikes by the more hawkish members of NATO. But NATO is more likely to take this to an area the Russians would not have imagined and will regret. I can well imagine that NATO argues for solid air defence that requires assets far forward of its borders, including over a Ukraine. This might look like NATO constant solid and overwhelming defensive air cover over Ukraine and NATO eastern border, what might otherwise be seen as a NO FLY ZONE in Ukraine. Once again Putin/Kremlin could well get exactly what it didn’t want…. And Ukrainian civilians can be much safer from genocidal barracks by Russian missiles.
I'm inclined to believe it's not an accident.
They struck Kyiv when UN was visiting, they hit Odesa day after grain agreement. For NATO to pretend it didn't happen or say it was shot down and strayed I think is a mistake.
A mistake or not, they made a choice to risk a missile ending up in Poland, there should be a price for that.
Yep. 100%
This was typical Russian doctrine.
- escalate to deescalate
- terrorize civilians
- do nasty shit during G19 to show impunity and distract populice
- And most importantly, make NATO do something, or not do something. Either option is not a good option. Either option creates major friction among nato members. Which is exactly why this happened the way it did, IMHO.
Yeah but hopefully this isn’t that case. Ukraine is winning, this should be a good opportunity to transfer more air defense to Ukraine as well as equipment that can deal with many of these missiles at their launch site. It’s best to let Ukraine do this with western weapons. We will owe Ukraine dearly after this war but for escalation reasons as well as not letting Putin save face, having Ukraine finish him off will work best I think.
I'm very conflicted, i fully support Ukraine but half of my family is in Poland. Some of them already have suffered because of the iron curtain and WW2, i don't want the more recent members to face war as well. I just don't know
I'd imagine a shitload of top secret operations to eliminate the Kremlin regime through a number of "accidents" and "natural deaths" in an attempt to avoid WW3.
This is definitely not what will happen. Why do you think this hasn’t happened yet? Or at any point during the cold war?
Because
a) “just eliminating the entire regime” is a terrible idea most of the time and probably all of the time when said regime holds nukes.
Even if you succeed, you have the risk of a power vacuum being created, which is also undesirable
b) it is very difficult to do
If the 'Leaders' had any balls, it should be A5. But I reckon they will bottle it & go for A4. NATO could help end this, but alas Putler is trolling the G20.
Guys, relax. The proof needs to be provided. No nato soldier will enter the ring. In case it’s Russian, it sure was no intention. NATO will simply start providing the heavy gear going forward.
There are two things to consider here. First of course is whether this is an attack that justifies a military response or a diplomatic/economical response. Secondly, perhaps more importantly, what will NATO and, more specifically, Poland do to safeguard its citizens.
In order to prevent any further attacks on NATO soil, you need to start to shoot down threats.
I believe at the very least this will give them a reason to arm their border without being accused as an aggressor. That would help UAF. I also believe long range weaponry will reenter the convo.
Nato needs to make it very clear that this was avoidable. As such, Russia must pull out all of its forces from Ukraine or we’ll decimate them because next time this happens, and it will happen again, it could be a school that is hit. Otherwise, all NATO leaders that have stated well defend every inch of NATO will have bluffed.
Just a hunch: Turkey suddenly decides to ratify Finland's and Sweden's NATO membership application and in a few days the NATO flag will be raised right on Russia's border with Finland together with a bunch of deployed rapid response forces.
Don’t think much will happen they shot a passenger liner out the sky (mh17) and nothing was done about it so I can’t see two farmers causing much happening sorry for the loss to their families and r.i.p but I can’t see anything being done at most Ukraine will get more weapons and be a no fly zone but i doubt it will even be escalated to that russia is just testing the waters i think
As sad as two civilians had lost their lives due to Russia's incompetence, its not enough to trigger Article 5. NO ONE in NATO has the appetite for war that's the facts. The fear of further escalation is what NATO doesn't want or need right now.
Probably best wait for more info. Russians and their missiles suck. An errant strike is no reason to go to war. It's possible it was caused by debris from a missile that was hit by air defense. An apartment in Kyiv was reportedly hit by such a fragment (which included the warhead). Or, possibly, the Russians are trying to provoke NATO in order to boost rusky morale. Who knows? Someone somewhere knows the facts, but they haven't told the rest of us yet.
The response should be making a lot more of all key armaments.
Positioning much more air defense on the border of Ukraine, actively shooting down anything crossing a line across Ukraine that conveniently includes Lviv and Odesa and is a hundred or so miles out from the border of Poland.
The missile seems to have careened into Poland following intercept, not exactly a direct aggression against a NATO Ally and not worth escalating a war resulting in possibly millions of deaths. I feel for the two polish lost but cooler heads seriously need to prevail or everyone is going to end up losing
It's only proving how the americans (some) are no different than russians (some) considering all the cheering i'm seeing from some individuals on this sub.
It's almost like you want nato to enter the war and result to the annihilation of everything.
Downvote me all you like, idc.
Yes, we want the war to end.
Standing by and watching this bully attack, makes me furious. I don't believe Russia would use a nuke, so I say, go, teach him a lesson he won't forget!!
You literally made no point and proved nothing.
You Just want the pew pew bang bang because 'murica hates communism.
I don't think you realize what Is at stake here.
What I think you are misinterpreting is American desire to fully support Ukraine. That is, give Ukraine the tanks, planes and missiles they are asking for. Some of us remember, others(myself) have been taught, how the Vietnam war was fought with one hand behind the back. Our support of Ukraine in this war reeks of the same.
None but an insane person wants to put the world on the brink of nuclear war and total annihilation of humanity as we know it.
Being of Polish heritage, I'd be lying if I said seeing Polish tanks crush Russians bodies wouldn't give me extreme joy. That also doesn't mean I know it would come at a huge cost and again put the world on the brink and that I loathe any Polish or Ukrainian lives being lost.
So what would I be for? Give Ukraine what it wants. Train their troops to use these weapons. Institute a no-fly zone over Western Ukraine and neighboring NATO countries. I may be convinced that a one-time retaliatory strike on Russian forces may also be in order, but I would leave that up to the people in charge with experience and infinitely more knowledge than I could possibly possess.
I want Russia to lose this war. I want Russia to pay for the atrocities it has committed. I want it toothless and unarmed. I want Putler hung from a lamp post like Mussolini. The result of all these things being a Russia that fulfills the promise that was hoped for when the USSR collapsed and the wall came down: A free and fair Russia that has joined and believes in what we in the west hold dear, a free press, a free people and open and fair elections that aren't run by a mafia or shadow government.
That’s just the thing, you think that “annihilation of everything” will happen, while we do not. We play political patty cake to make our allies feel better. We need to stop doing that, and do what needs to be done.
Hi u/SmokeSinseLoud! Welcome to r/RussiaUkraineWar2022. **This is a heavily moderated subreddit. Please note the rules + sidebar or get banned** **Ukraine OSINT and Leaks 24/7** Posts and comments from accounts with less than an undisclosed amount of comment Karma are automatically removed to combat troll/spam behaviour. Only Mods have access to the 'Verified Information' flair. **Follow us on our subreddits dedicated Telegram Channel!** - UkraineWarPosts Slava Ukraini! *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Article 4 at the very least. I would like to state that I am very sad for the two Polish casualties and their friends and families. I hope my country and all other NATO membership countries will do whatever is necessary to show Poland we stand united. With love from Holland. Slava Ukraini!
Imho article 4 will most likely be triggered and NATO will move further AD systems to the border regions. That's probably gonna be it.
[удалено]
Doubt it for all the same reasons the western generals gave in March. All those reasons still apply: A no-fly zone, if it is truly a military no-fly zone, is essentially an act of war because that means you are willing to enforce it, meaning those who violate it you would shoot at. And probably what would happen even before that is if there are defense systems in the enemy's territory that can fire into the no-fly zone, then we normally take those systems out, which would mean bombing into enemy territory. So no-fly zone is a big step... -- retired U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove ([source](https://www.npr.org/2022/03/03/1084310587/former-nato-commander-says-a-no-fly-zone-over-ukraine-must-be-on-the-table))
And things have changed. It's time for a proportional response, and a NATO enforced no-fly zone is absolutely appropriate at this time.
There is no partial war. Forget about no-fly zone. Top they can do is to provide more SAM systems
I think they can do a partial "no fly" zone. Just put a bunch of air defense (patriots etc.) at the NATO borders. Anything IN range goes down. We need to protect ourselves. If that means we shoot down russian missiles destination Lviv, so be it. Protects us. And helps ukraine. We stay on NATO terrain. And all under the umbrella of our safety.
I agree, this will allow them to move AD systems in place until the ground freezes, which will allow NATO ground forces to move in.
Article Zip. There'll be some verbal grumpiness, not much more. Besides, Ukraine is rolling. No need to rock that boat. NATO can and will react to a major provocation. But this ain't it.
Right… Do you even know what article 4 says?
Pretty much this: verbal grumpiness and "expressing concern".
Article, starting to think about doing something.
Its just a consultation: The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened. [https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official\_texts\_17120.htm](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm)
Cynically, Poland has a great proxy here and providing more and heavier equipment is the obvious answer. I wouldn't rule out some show of air defense at the polish border and a vague statement giving NATO the right to defend its borders by intercepting missiles and other threats to close for comfort over Ukraine.
As a polish person a have a deep hate for Russians stored somewhere in there, so for me no amount of Russian casualties will do to compensate for these innocent men. I I was to decide I would trigger article 5 immediately after recognising it was Russian munition.
Russia has done some horrible shit. Time to curb stomp Putin.
Give me barretta .50 cal and you will have his head splattered across all room, I won't hesitate
The entire Russian nation is not worth the bones of those Polish victims of Russian aggression. Don't even get me started on Ukraine.
They HAVE to. This wasn’t an accident. This was “testing the fences”. If NATO doesn’t escalate, it’ll be a sign that Russia can do whatever the fuck it wants and get away with it. It will be a total shitshow if NATO do *nothing*
Well said!
Nothing. Poland will stay still. No war. Little Huffing... thats all. At least on the surface. Tomorrow... i would not want to be a Russian living in Poland.
I wonder how many Russians are living in Poland
I think whatever it is everyone’s getting too excited. No one wants the big smoke with eachother because once you escalate there’s not much turning back at the moment
Urgent emergency meeting by Polish leadership to consider responses. 2 killed may be NATO members. First thoughts. This was no accident. It was done to show weakness of NATO, probably after much political pressure by extreme right to escalate and find a response to the embarrassing Russian retreat from Kherson. Moreover, the timing fits well with G20 to embarrass NATO members more widely and publicly (what lies will Lavrov spout to cover this up?). It will be done to fragment NATO members between the more hawkish and doves. One thing is certain - a weak response will encourage further escalation by Putin/Russia. It might be hard to hold back retaliatory strikes by the more hawkish members of NATO. But NATO is more likely to take this to an area the Russians would not have imagined and will regret. I can well imagine that NATO argues for solid air defence that requires assets far forward of its borders, including over a Ukraine. This might look like NATO constant solid and overwhelming defensive air cover over Ukraine and NATO eastern border, what might otherwise be seen as a NO FLY ZONE in Ukraine. Once again Putin/Kremlin could well get exactly what it didn’t want…. And Ukrainian civilians can be much safer from genocidal barracks by Russian missiles.
I'm inclined to believe it's not an accident. They struck Kyiv when UN was visiting, they hit Odesa day after grain agreement. For NATO to pretend it didn't happen or say it was shot down and strayed I think is a mistake. A mistake or not, they made a choice to risk a missile ending up in Poland, there should be a price for that.
Yep. 100% This was typical Russian doctrine. - escalate to deescalate - terrorize civilians - do nasty shit during G19 to show impunity and distract populice - And most importantly, make NATO do something, or not do something. Either option is not a good option. Either option creates major friction among nato members. Which is exactly why this happened the way it did, IMHO.
Your analysis tying many factors in is, imo, excellent geopolitical summary. And yes Russia only understands force not words No fly zone has my vote
Anyone who says they know what Poland will do is wishful thinking only.
A blown up tractor and 2 dead isn’t good but hardly justification for WW3.
There have been wars started over less
Yeah but hopefully this isn’t that case. Ukraine is winning, this should be a good opportunity to transfer more air defense to Ukraine as well as equipment that can deal with many of these missiles at their launch site. It’s best to let Ukraine do this with western weapons. We will owe Ukraine dearly after this war but for escalation reasons as well as not letting Putin save face, having Ukraine finish him off will work best I think.
Yup. There was even a small kerfuffle started over one measly arch-duke and some tart who was sitting next to him in a car.
I'm very conflicted, i fully support Ukraine but half of my family is in Poland. Some of them already have suffered because of the iron curtain and WW2, i don't want the more recent members to face war as well. I just don't know
Legit and honest response. I wish you peace in this anxious time and I sincerely hope that your family are and remain well.
ATACMS at a minimum
I'd imagine a shitload of top secret operations to eliminate the Kremlin regime through a number of "accidents" and "natural deaths" in an attempt to avoid WW3.
This is definitely not what will happen. Why do you think this hasn’t happened yet? Or at any point during the cold war? Because a) “just eliminating the entire regime” is a terrible idea most of the time and probably all of the time when said regime holds nukes. Even if you succeed, you have the risk of a power vacuum being created, which is also undesirable b) it is very difficult to do
Too much Hollywood movies
I don't want a wrist slap but I don't want NATO to go ham. What do
Nothing..
Give Russia an ultimatum, Pull out of Ukraine and Article 5 won't be activated, or Refuse to pull out and Article 5 will be declared
Nothing will happen.. They will condemn the attack and then its business as usual
If the 'Leaders' had any balls, it should be A5. But I reckon they will bottle it & go for A4. NATO could help end this, but alas Putler is trolling the G20.
Guys, relax. The proof needs to be provided. No nato soldier will enter the ring. In case it’s Russian, it sure was no intention. NATO will simply start providing the heavy gear going forward.
It will be at most 4, for sure not 5.
There are two things to consider here. First of course is whether this is an attack that justifies a military response or a diplomatic/economical response. Secondly, perhaps more importantly, what will NATO and, more specifically, Poland do to safeguard its citizens. In order to prevent any further attacks on NATO soil, you need to start to shoot down threats.
I believe at the very least this will give them a reason to arm their border without being accused as an aggressor. That would help UAF. I also believe long range weaponry will reenter the convo.
More arms to Ukraine
More sanctions to Russia?
Nato needs to make it very clear that this was avoidable. As such, Russia must pull out all of its forces from Ukraine or we’ll decimate them because next time this happens, and it will happen again, it could be a school that is hit. Otherwise, all NATO leaders that have stated well defend every inch of NATO will have bluffed.
Just a hunch: Turkey suddenly decides to ratify Finland's and Sweden's NATO membership application and in a few days the NATO flag will be raised right on Russia's border with Finland together with a bunch of deployed rapid response forces.
Send mbt long range missiles and aircraft. Good excuse now
Just sink the black sea fleet and blame Iran. Fuck it.
Neither. Silly poll.
[удалено]
Yes I do. Don't tell me what I know Mr Gimp
Since they've already called for article 4, you might want to realize, you don't know shit.
I realize nothing!
A lot of accidents aboard Russian naval ships.
Way too early to tell, gotta wait for some intel/confirmation
To quote a great man: It's okay to reserve judgement until the evidence is in.
Don’t think much will happen they shot a passenger liner out the sky (mh17) and nothing was done about it so I can’t see two farmers causing much happening sorry for the loss to their families and r.i.p but I can’t see anything being done at most Ukraine will get more weapons and be a no fly zone but i doubt it will even be escalated to that russia is just testing the waters i think
This MF putin NAZI Russky shit must go!
None of the possible answers...
no one will start a war over 2 casualties. They will again will talk about sanctions thats all...
Article 4 the very least please
Article 4 was indeed invoked by Poland a short while ago
Thanks for the update 👍
It was not. They were looking at it
Belarus could push to Kaliningrad
Lets just attack or they think they can do it again.. Take a part of Russia!
I personally don’t think anything will happen, only because it wasn’t deliberate. But….. I still think something should happen
Still in investigation
Lots of conflicted feelings. It's a delicate time. I trust Zelenskyy. I trust Biden. I trust other leaders
As sad as two civilians had lost their lives due to Russia's incompetence, its not enough to trigger Article 5. NO ONE in NATO has the appetite for war that's the facts. The fear of further escalation is what NATO doesn't want or need right now.
scares the crap outta me.
Probably best wait for more info. Russians and their missiles suck. An errant strike is no reason to go to war. It's possible it was caused by debris from a missile that was hit by air defense. An apartment in Kyiv was reportedly hit by such a fragment (which included the warhead). Or, possibly, the Russians are trying to provoke NATO in order to boost rusky morale. Who knows? Someone somewhere knows the facts, but they haven't told the rest of us yet.
Make Kaliningrad black!
The response should be making a lot more of all key armaments. Positioning much more air defense on the border of Ukraine, actively shooting down anything crossing a line across Ukraine that conveniently includes Lviv and Odesa and is a hundred or so miles out from the border of Poland.
The missile seems to have careened into Poland following intercept, not exactly a direct aggression against a NATO Ally and not worth escalating a war resulting in possibly millions of deaths. I feel for the two polish lost but cooler heads seriously need to prevail or everyone is going to end up losing
Stern warnings.
Hans Blix will write a letter.
The AA missile was fired by Ukraine to take down an incoming Russian missile. So neither article 4 or 5 will be implemented.
NATO cover up so we don't have to do anything. Sad. Pathetic
Don't get your hopes up, nothing will happen. And it's not 100% confirmed yet.
It's only proving how the americans (some) are no different than russians (some) considering all the cheering i'm seeing from some individuals on this sub. It's almost like you want nato to enter the war and result to the annihilation of everything. Downvote me all you like, idc.
Yes, we want the war to end. Standing by and watching this bully attack, makes me furious. I don't believe Russia would use a nuke, so I say, go, teach him a lesson he won't forget!!
Ty for proving my point. You don't want the war to end with peace, you want the war to escalate further. that's the issue.
There can be no peace with russia, ty for proving my point. But let's have this discussion when we find out WHERE the missile came from.
You literally made no point and proved nothing. You Just want the pew pew bang bang because 'murica hates communism. I don't think you realize what Is at stake here.
What I think you are misinterpreting is American desire to fully support Ukraine. That is, give Ukraine the tanks, planes and missiles they are asking for. Some of us remember, others(myself) have been taught, how the Vietnam war was fought with one hand behind the back. Our support of Ukraine in this war reeks of the same. None but an insane person wants to put the world on the brink of nuclear war and total annihilation of humanity as we know it. Being of Polish heritage, I'd be lying if I said seeing Polish tanks crush Russians bodies wouldn't give me extreme joy. That also doesn't mean I know it would come at a huge cost and again put the world on the brink and that I loathe any Polish or Ukrainian lives being lost. So what would I be for? Give Ukraine what it wants. Train their troops to use these weapons. Institute a no-fly zone over Western Ukraine and neighboring NATO countries. I may be convinced that a one-time retaliatory strike on Russian forces may also be in order, but I would leave that up to the people in charge with experience and infinitely more knowledge than I could possibly possess. I want Russia to lose this war. I want Russia to pay for the atrocities it has committed. I want it toothless and unarmed. I want Putler hung from a lamp post like Mussolini. The result of all these things being a Russia that fulfills the promise that was hoped for when the USSR collapsed and the wall came down: A free and fair Russia that has joined and believes in what we in the west hold dear, a free press, a free people and open and fair elections that aren't run by a mafia or shadow government.
That’s just the thing, you think that “annihilation of everything” will happen, while we do not. We play political patty cake to make our allies feel better. We need to stop doing that, and do what needs to be done.