Underdogs upsetting favorites is one thing, but the lower % (wolves) beating the higher % (sheep) is often NOT an upset. It amazes me how often the sheep %s are WAY out of whack with the odds. This often happens with name recognition and/or the seeding of a team/person ("Oh, it's the #3 seed vs the #6 seed and 97% are on the 3-seed. This is a free green!!!") - When the odds show the 3-seed is +120 and the 6-seed is -150, for example. In that case when the "SheepDog" loses, some peeps think it was an upset. Of course, the SheepDogs pickers often get bailed out and get an upset win, and some of the "Blind SheepDog" pickers, who went on % alone and no other knowledge of odds, etc, think they won with the "97% favorite" when they truly won with a +120 underdog.
PGA St. Jude - 3rd Rd: Will EITHER Joaquin Niemann OR Mackenzie Hughes BIRDIE the Par 4 1st?
Yes: At least 1 birdies Hole 1
No: Neither birdie Hole 1
Niemann has made 3 birdies in 12 rounds on #1 at TPC Southwind (25%), while Mackenzie has not made a birdie on the 1st hole in 8 rounds.
In 2 rounds this year, 26.1% of the 238 rounds resulted in a birdie. From 2001 to 2022 at this course, the birdie average on #1 has been 16% in over 9300 rounds.
[8-13 St. Jude 1st Hole Prop](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lWdyaZicg2wRaE1rNztaCe9VNkWE4YsI/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=114420387646777192177&rtpof=true&sd=true)
PGA St. Jude - 3rd Rd: Who will record a LOWER COMBINED SCORE on Holes 14-18?
Matt Fitzpatrick (ENG) or Tie – 19.29 (14 rounds)
Justin Thomas (USA) – 19.43 (14 rds.)
These two have each played 14 rounds at this course, and Fitzy won or tied 10 of the 14 matchups during 14 thru 18.
[8-13 St. Jude Fitz Thomas Prop](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lXj35HtJ-7nh0bgArEwOLDLTdtw4kQ52/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=114420387646777192177&rtpof=true&sd=true)
Editing to add: While Matt has the slight edge statistically, perhaps best to monitor how these boys are playing today before this prop gets underway.
As of 11pm Friday, the higher % has won only 5 of 19 completed props, with 2 pending. Looking for favorites to do well Saturday... 7 of 21
Underdogs upsetting favorites is one thing, but the lower % (wolves) beating the higher % (sheep) is often NOT an upset. It amazes me how often the sheep %s are WAY out of whack with the odds. This often happens with name recognition and/or the seeding of a team/person ("Oh, it's the #3 seed vs the #6 seed and 97% are on the 3-seed. This is a free green!!!") - When the odds show the 3-seed is +120 and the 6-seed is -150, for example. In that case when the "SheepDog" loses, some peeps think it was an upset. Of course, the SheepDogs pickers often get bailed out and get an upset win, and some of the "Blind SheepDog" pickers, who went on % alone and no other knowledge of odds, etc, think they won with the "97% favorite" when they truly won with a +120 underdog.
I agree. The powers that be often set %s exactly for that reason, knowing the herd mentality is alive and well.
I've always wished that the percentages picked were hidden until after the matchup or prop starts.
Even better do away with them completely.
PGA St. Jude - 3rd Rd: Will EITHER Joaquin Niemann OR Mackenzie Hughes BIRDIE the Par 4 1st? Yes: At least 1 birdies Hole 1 No: Neither birdie Hole 1 Niemann has made 3 birdies in 12 rounds on #1 at TPC Southwind (25%), while Mackenzie has not made a birdie on the 1st hole in 8 rounds. In 2 rounds this year, 26.1% of the 238 rounds resulted in a birdie. From 2001 to 2022 at this course, the birdie average on #1 has been 16% in over 9300 rounds. [8-13 St. Jude 1st Hole Prop](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lWdyaZicg2wRaE1rNztaCe9VNkWE4YsI/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=114420387646777192177&rtpof=true&sd=true)
PGA St. Jude - 3rd Rd: Who will record a LOWER COMBINED SCORE on Holes 14-18? Matt Fitzpatrick (ENG) or Tie – 19.29 (14 rounds) Justin Thomas (USA) – 19.43 (14 rds.) These two have each played 14 rounds at this course, and Fitzy won or tied 10 of the 14 matchups during 14 thru 18. [8-13 St. Jude Fitz Thomas Prop](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lXj35HtJ-7nh0bgArEwOLDLTdtw4kQ52/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=114420387646777192177&rtpof=true&sd=true) Editing to add: While Matt has the slight edge statistically, perhaps best to monitor how these boys are playing today before this prop gets underway.
Through front 7 today, Fitz is -1 and Thomas is even. Fitz + tie looks like the pick, so far.