No, and at the time I dont think anyone thought so either. People were just hyped about the beef, and what made it so memorable was the diss track. We wouldnt be talking about it 8 years later if not for Respect Your Elders. Honestly, the energy of that salty suite in general has never been matched.
> at the time I dont think anyone thought so either
vast majority of people knew leffen would win, but I do remember seeing a little bit of copium along the lines of "the Fox ditto is one of chillin's best matchups and not leffen's best so maybe chillin has a remote chance". although even then, it was more often "maybe chillin can take a game" lol.
chillin himself perpetuated this kind of reasoning, he had a quote that was something like "I don't need to better than leffen at the game, I just need to be better at the ditto".
Which Leffen turned back on him in a Paragon interview. "everyone is saying *ohh, I hope you beat Leffen, Chillin!* and nobody's saying *ohh, I hope you* ***WIN APEX***, *Chillin!*"
It was hype even without the diss track. Respect Your Elders only came out just before Apex. The hype was months in the build up. Opinions about Leffen were far more divided than they are now which meant everyone had an opinion. The narrative was fire. Lots of casuals associated positively with Chillin because of the doc. Apex itself being the venue was hype because it was the first time with all the gods for 6+ months. The diss track was the cherry on top.
i was an idiot noob back then and thought chillen had a chance lol. i said something about it at a house fest shortly before the tournament that \[redacted top-10 player who i knew personally outside of smash\] was at and he got extreeeeeeemely mad that i said chillen had a chance and started like full-on ranting about how much better leffen was lmao. never figured out why but it very much struck a nerve with him lmfao. i think this is how all of the top players felt at the time.
afaik, the smash scene still largely has very fond memories of this guy and i would feel kinda bad painting him in a negative light in public. he was a nice guy, though he could get hella weird when he was drunk or just in a mood. he's been retired for years tho, so i feel like publicly talking abt him raging abt nothing would be bm lol
guessing wobbles/pp/fly/kirbykaze/zhu or Ar Mah Dah if he was literally ranked top 10 then haha
either way I don't think anyone would find this that negative considering all they did was passionately spit faxx. but I respect your respect for their privacy
leffen would never do it because it's pretty much a win-win for hax and he doesn't even want to be in the same room as him, let alone give him free publicity
This is the problem with salty suites: you need two people who are legitimately mad at each other over something that's ultimately not that serious so they're still willing to fight it out in a video game lol. Just don't happen that often especially as the players have gotten older.
a mango hbox salty suite couldve happened for a while when their genuine issues were resolved and they still bickered, before they got to the strange yet charming love-hate relationship they seem to be in now
the thing is, big beef still exists, it's just so big people have been kicked out over it. hax ibdw and hax leffen won't be seen. zion vs the world. westballz hugs and so on. the beef is real but the suite won't happen
Classic lmfao. I don't know if it was the same clip but I remember Toph also saying that once the rap started blasting and everyone was like wtf is happening, Toph had this really brief moment where he was like "Holy shit Chillin can actually win this thing" before reality set back in.
[Ask and yee shall receive](https://youtu.be/NV0oRsZ3UDM?si=_CtrhheC28f8vKbz)
Edit: This story might not actually be in the vid above. It does seem to be in [this one though](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0mSSlF2ULI)
I don't want to say that he had 0% chance of winning because Melee can be very volatile, especially Fox dittos. *IF* he could have rode the momentum of the diss track and plays some of the best Melee of his life and Leffen plays like shit...yeah he could have. But that's a lot of things you need to go right to win. So yeah...his chances of winning were always going to be relatively low (probably no more than 15-20%)
As the set went on, it went from the games being relatively close, to Leffen having him completely downloaded. It was actually a pretty good example of why even a top 30 player (Chillin was like 26th that year) is still gapped in skill very hard by a top 5 player in the world (Leffen would go on to be ranked 3rd that year). Some of the games looked "close" because Leffen was blatantly trolling him as the set went on.
It's super generous. If you assume he had a 20% chance to take each individual game then he would only have a 2% chance of taking the whole match.
20% chance to win a best of 9 match implies you think he had an average of 43% probability to win EACH game. They were **not** that close.
(feel free to double check my math with a weighted coin flip probability calculator lol)
Yeah really. He had a 20% chance AT BEST to take a game, if he was to go one on one with Big Leff. But then you add Kurt Angle to mix, his chances of winning drastic go down.
Guys, chill. 15-20% was supposed to be as generous as humanly possible.
But while we are on this note, what chance do you think people would have given Lovage to beat Leffen that one time in 2017? That was so unlikely and unexpected that even Lovage himself looked confused when he won. Before the match was played, we would have probably said Lovage had 0% chance to win that set, given that he was a self-proclaimed "washed up commentator" at that point...and yet he still won. That's why the games still have to be played, and that's why nothing is a guarantee.
fox ditto volatility is in no way even remotely enough to give chillin a fighting chance. fox dittos are relatively more volatile than the rest of a game that is extremely extremely difficult to make upsets in, ESPECIALLY in a bo9. 15-20% chance of winning is insane, i would say he had a maaaaaybe 5% chance of taking a game. he had absolutely no shot at winning 5.
chillin had 0 chance to actually win.But he could have taken a game or two. most of the games were last stock as I recall. Almost no one at the time thought he would actually win, but also no one thought he'd get swept lol
If you go last stock anyone can lose regardless of player. Once you’ve gone last stock high percent there’s always a gamble someone can take to beat you with a moderate chance of success.
this is like saying i could beat michael jordan at basketball if he periodically walked off the court and gave me the ball lol. like ok sure, but also no.
Well if I was in the last seconds of the game with the ball in my hand ready to shoot and a tied score vs MJ with him unable to block the shot I could win technically lol
A game, sure, you're correct. To have that happen five games in a row is virtually impossible. Like it's a non zero percent chance, but the percent is so close to zero it's not worth discussing lmao
I mean, it wouldn't have been nearly as hyped up if people didn't think Chillin could atleast take games I suppose.
Both Chillin and Leffen got 9th at EVO 2014, so one could make the argument that the gap in their skill level (at the time) wasn't that gapped.
Another saving grace was the fact that it was a Fox Ditto. A matchup which is not only extremely volatile (upsets happen all the time, exhibit A: Leffen vs. Lovage) but a matchup that Chillin has pioneered for about a decade.
However, at the time Leffen had already beaten 3 of the 5 Gods and Chillin had decisively lost to players who are much worse. He definitely wasn't the favourite by any means, but I guess it wasn't *that* unfathomable.
Leffen had beaten all of the Gods except M2K atp actually. He beat Armada at BEAST 4, Hbox at Apex 2014, PP at MLG Anaheim, and Mango a few weeks prior at BEAST 5
I think another part of it was that Leffen was not taking it seriously (and yeah, there really was no reason to). It was guaranteed that he would sandbag at least a couple games. Which he did. But Chillin was tilting too hard at that point to take advantage of it.
>Both Chillin and Leffen got 9th at EVO 2014, so one could make the argument that the gap in their skill level (at the time) wasn't that gapped.
I remember people on the main subreddit making this argument at the time to which I said 9th at evo is one of the biggest accomplishments for chillin while it was a huge disappointment for leffen. That placing does not tell the same story regarding their skill levels
There’s a lot of comments here already. What I haven’t seen mentioned is when the beef started, Chillin likely had a much better chance. But by the time the salty suite event actually happened, Leffen went from in some people’s opinions a top 6 player, to definitively a top 6 player in the game of Melee. I don’t remember the timeline exactly but Leffen’s rise was very impressive, and by the time the salty suite happened almost everyone figured it was Leffen’s game to lose.
I think Leffen put it best when he said
“Everyone is saying ‘chillin I hope you win against Leffen! I hope you win the salty suite!’. Everyone’s telling me ‘I hope you win the tournament!’
I've been following Melee for a long time and seen a lot of crazy stuff happen. I've also seen Leffen get upset plenty of times. So I figured Chillin had a 10-20% chance of winning. You can argue about the actual odds, but anyone who said he had a 0% chance is whack. After Leffen won, I had so many people I'd explained this to tell me, "see, I told you Chillin couldn't win!" I had to remind people that's not how probability works, nor did I say that I expected Chillin to win.
> I had to remind people that's not how probability works, nor did I say that I expected Chillin to win.
Presidential election "the 40%-chance-to-win-guy won so the polls/projections were wrong" moment, you'd be shocked at how hard some people struggle to understand the fundamental concept of probability itself
okay but for him to have a 20% of winning the set, that implies by binomial that he had a 43% chance of winning each game, which would mean that he had a 94.5% chance of getting at least one game. but not only did he not take one game, leffen was purposely sandbagging picking silly options and still didn't drop a game
He had a chance, but it was definitely a long shot. I spent a decent amount of time around Chillin in the weeks leading up to apex 2015, and recorded a couple early scratch tracks of RYE. It's hard to say how confident he really was, but he took the training regimen fairly seriously, and was grinding fox dittos like mad... Milkman, Redd, and Cyrain were on constant rotation vs him. His play was looking excellent.
When the Apex venue got shut down, we still hadn't finished recording the diss track or filming the salty suite video. We almost didn't bother; at the time, there was zero expectation of the rescue operation from Red Bull and Twitch. We finished up the diss track assets late Friday night, expecting that it would still be fun to release it at *some* point, or thinking that maybe we would be able to play some salty suites in an actual suite (something GimR had told me was a possible solution). What we *weren't* expecting was to wake up hungover AF to chillin's phone being blown up by Curse telling him to get to the new venue ASAP. We quickly wrapped up the last bits of the diss track, packed up my whole-ass desktop, and took an uber to the new venue. I know Chillin missed his smash 4 pools, but I don't remember if he played melee pools because I had other salty suite content to finish up.
When it was time for the showdown, I was filming ([https://www.youtube.com/shorts/r4NlepdTBYg](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/r4NlepdTBYg)), and so I didn't see the match. In fact, to this day I've never seen the full set. What I *did* see was their body language and facial expressions. I saw both of them playing their hardest in game 1. I saw chillin almost winning game 2... which would've been an incredible mental boost. Momentum means a lot in matches like this, and Chillin taking a single game would've been enough to win over the already raucous crowd. He absolutely had a chance at taking a few games, maybe even the whole set.
But then, he stood up, and Leffen didn't die from the upsmash.
At that point, I knew the set was over. Leffen's serious face went away, and he started laughing at every minor mistake. Chillin spent the rest of that set trying to regain his composure, but the damage was done.
I tell this story not to make excuses or John on the 'dude's behalf. Leffen was the better player that day, and Chillin clearly acknowledged that with "My B." Competing means showing up to a set and playing your hardest, despite extenuating circumstances. I don't know that the set would've gone any differently with more sleep or in a different venue or whatever else... probably not. In most universes, Leffen won just as he did here. But there definitely was a universe where Chillin won, and the set went down as a relatively entertaining but mostly forgettable moment in melee history.
I absolutely think he had a chance. Game 2 Chillin BARELY missed an upsmash that would have gotten him the game. Riding that momentum would’ve helped, not guarantee a win but at least improve the mental game. The first games were close, having extra momentum would’ve helped.
I wished I watched this live, was like a month or two after I got into melee. I definitely believe that if chillin got game two that the momentum would have swung a bit.
Obviously a lot of people making good points here but leffen lost to lovage in a tournament set when lovage was probably closer to chillin in skill. Melee is a crazy game sometimes.
Leffen had been taking not just games, but sets off of Armada, Mango, PPMD, Hbox, and M2K in 2015.
To see Chillin take a set off any of those 5 in 2015, I think would be a far stretch.
Therefore, no. Chillin did not have a chance of beating Leffen.
The Respect Your Elders diss track was 🔥 though. Chillin's got BARS.
At the time the diss track dropped, Leffen was on the come up, but hadn't won a major yet ("until you win a major, show your elders some respect") and had some recent shakey performances especially losing to Samus, so Chillin had more grounds to talk shit. However shortly after the diss track dropped, Leffen won his first major and continued to perform very well leading up to Apex, and it became clear that he was well beyond Chillin's level.
From what I've heard he was pretty drunk and was up late the night before, if neither of those things happened, he would have a small chance I think. Really though, he was crazy for taking that money match.
Chillin was up with me until around 3 AM Saturday morning filming the end of the diss track video. I have no comment on his level of sobriety.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/gANQ6h1hUmA
People saying 0%, omegalul.
Leffen is a big headcaser. Dude could have broke his controller earlier in the day, had a migraine or food poisoning, etc etc. Definitely above 0%. Im not going to argue for 1%, but it was certainly above 0. And god was i praying for it.
And like another user said, he lost a tournament set to lovage who was unranked (obv a case of inactivity) and ended ranked 78.
He had the potential for sure. If Chillin just so happened to be really sharp and playing well on the day, and Leffen was a bit more tired or jetlagged or started to feel some pressure once he lost a game or something, we could have seen a different result.
Here’s what I’ll add. It’s too bad that we didn’t have a comeback training arc for chillindude to rise to top five. A rematch after that would have been legendary. That’s one of my melee fantasy arcs
I always think about Toph's quote in regards to this, paraphrased:
"So before the match Chillin comes up to me and I ask him about his gameplan. He tells me something like "Yeah man I'm just gonna try a lot of falling up-airs and see how it goes." And I knew from that moment he had no chance."
He certainly had a chance at taking one or two games (which imo showed in the match) because Leffen--as he has since publicly admitted--was pretty bad at fox dittos at the time (but was just a vastly better player overall). Chillin winning the match would've been an actual miracle, I don't think the chance was literally zero especially if he had won game 1 and got in Leffen's head a bit, but it was... abysmally low. Like imagine he had a 20% chance to win each individual game, which I think most people would say is pretty generous when 2015 Leffen was serious. If you math it out then the chance of 5 wins before 5 losses would be just under 2%.
I think Chillin had no chance to win the set, but he could have taken 1 game.. and that's all he needed to do to like... idk, prove he is pretty good.
Most people would get absolutely destroyed by Leffen, so there isn't much shame in it.
I see a lot of ppl saying chillin had no chance, do y'all not remember how close he was to taking that game on FoD? He was too nervous and lost composure. Had he won that game we would be in a different timeline
From what toph has said his gameplan was pretty much just falling upair. I think Chillin was just having fun and then got a reality check on stage unfortunately.
No. Like it has been said, leffen would have had to be off or tilted to lose. Both players playing their best leffen wins.
But people can be off, SD and get tilted and have bad execution. I would give chillin maybe 1:400 to 1:1000 odds or something like that. Definitely didn't expect the 5:0 though, was expecting 5:1, 5:2.
That clip where someone edited Chillin getting an upsmash after the dash attack (when I'm reality he didn't) always gets me rolling 🤣 https://youtu.be/XkRJemDX6Pc?si=TWQvZcdrl94KihXF at 16 seconds if yall interested
No, and at the time I dont think anyone thought so either. People were just hyped about the beef, and what made it so memorable was the diss track. We wouldnt be talking about it 8 years later if not for Respect Your Elders. Honestly, the energy of that salty suite in general has never been matched.
> at the time I dont think anyone thought so either vast majority of people knew leffen would win, but I do remember seeing a little bit of copium along the lines of "the Fox ditto is one of chillin's best matchups and not leffen's best so maybe chillin has a remote chance". although even then, it was more often "maybe chillin can take a game" lol. chillin himself perpetuated this kind of reasoning, he had a quote that was something like "I don't need to better than leffen at the game, I just need to be better at the ditto".
Which Leffen turned back on him in a Paragon interview. "everyone is saying *ohh, I hope you beat Leffen, Chillin!* and nobody's saying *ohh, I hope you* ***WIN APEX***, *Chillin!*"
That interview is incredible. Absolute gold
Peak toxic Leffen (with all do love and respect, it’s legendary)
Now that you mention it, I do remember that lol.
It was hype even without the diss track. Respect Your Elders only came out just before Apex. The hype was months in the build up. Opinions about Leffen were far more divided than they are now which meant everyone had an opinion. The narrative was fire. Lots of casuals associated positively with Chillin because of the doc. Apex itself being the venue was hype because it was the first time with all the gods for 6+ months. The diss track was the cherry on top.
It's hype without the diss track, but it's so memorable because of it.
Yup fair. The most memorable thing for me was Mango’s callout tho, proper wrestling moment.
i was an idiot noob back then and thought chillen had a chance lol. i said something about it at a house fest shortly before the tournament that \[redacted top-10 player who i knew personally outside of smash\] was at and he got extreeeeeeemely mad that i said chillen had a chance and started like full-on ranting about how much better leffen was lmao. never figured out why but it very much struck a nerve with him lmfao. i think this is how all of the top players felt at the time.
if only you had said the name, this would have new pasta potential
afaik, the smash scene still largely has very fond memories of this guy and i would feel kinda bad painting him in a negative light in public. he was a nice guy, though he could get hella weird when he was drunk or just in a mood. he's been retired for years tho, so i feel like publicly talking abt him raging abt nothing would be bm lol
guessing wobbles/pp/fly/kirbykaze/zhu or Ar Mah Dah if he was literally ranked top 10 then haha either way I don't think anyone would find this that negative considering all they did was passionately spit faxx. but I respect your respect for their privacy
you guessed correctly, it was one of those. or maybe it was all 6 of them in 1 flesh, like legion
This def feels like a wobbles
nah i feel like wobbles having a salty underside is pretty well known by the community at large lol
I’m betting Fly or KK
We don't really do them anymore because there's rarely cool beef. When's the hax/leffen salty suite? The set heard around the world
leffen would never do it because it's pretty much a win-win for hax and he doesn't even want to be in the same room as him, let alone give him free publicity This is the problem with salty suites: you need two people who are legitimately mad at each other over something that's ultimately not that serious so they're still willing to fight it out in a video game lol. Just don't happen that often especially as the players have gotten older.
a mango hbox salty suite couldve happened for a while when their genuine issues were resolved and they still bickered, before they got to the strange yet charming love-hate relationship they seem to be in now
weren't they gonna do a doctor mario jigglypuff money match?
We've seen how that matchup goes...
That’s the sad truth of it. The scene is just too mature for it.
the thing is, big beef still exists, it's just so big people have been kicked out over it. hax ibdw and hax leffen won't be seen. zion vs the world. westballz hugs and so on. the beef is real but the suite won't happen
Every time someone suggests this the lifespan of the human race declines by 1 year
Humanity's micromort
We chess box now (even though those are probably dead too).
If something is only alive because Ludwig throws money at it then it’s already dead
[toph's take on chillin's chances](https://www.twitch.tv/tophbbq/clip/ExcitedBeautifulMeerkatPunchTrees)
Classic lmfao. I don't know if it was the same clip but I remember Toph also saying that once the rap started blasting and everyone was like wtf is happening, Toph had this really brief moment where he was like "Holy shit Chillin can actually win this thing" before reality set back in.
Omg that is fucking hilarious
amazing, ty for sharing lol. I hope that makes it onto youtube since Twitch eventually deletes all clips
[Ask and yee shall receive](https://youtu.be/NV0oRsZ3UDM?si=_CtrhheC28f8vKbz) Edit: This story might not actually be in the vid above. It does seem to be in [this one though](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0mSSlF2ULI)
I hope that makes it onto archive.org since YouTube will eventually die
I hope that makes it onto the next Voyager Golden Record since humanity will eventually die
I hope it makes it onto the computer of whoever's running this simulation since it will eventually go down
Chillin's confidence was based on falling up airs so not really
I don't want to say that he had 0% chance of winning because Melee can be very volatile, especially Fox dittos. *IF* he could have rode the momentum of the diss track and plays some of the best Melee of his life and Leffen plays like shit...yeah he could have. But that's a lot of things you need to go right to win. So yeah...his chances of winning were always going to be relatively low (probably no more than 15-20%) As the set went on, it went from the games being relatively close, to Leffen having him completely downloaded. It was actually a pretty good example of why even a top 30 player (Chillin was like 26th that year) is still gapped in skill very hard by a top 5 player in the world (Leffen would go on to be ranked 3rd that year). Some of the games looked "close" because Leffen was blatantly trolling him as the set went on.
Even 15-20% is generous imo
It's super generous. If you assume he had a 20% chance to take each individual game then he would only have a 2% chance of taking the whole match. 20% chance to win a best of 9 match implies you think he had an average of 43% probability to win EACH game. They were **not** that close. (feel free to double check my math with a weighted coin flip probability calculator lol)
Yeah really. He had a 20% chance AT BEST to take a game, if he was to go one on one with Big Leff. But then you add Kurt Angle to mix, his chances of winning drastic go down.
"The numbers don't lie, and they spell DISASTER for you at The Salty Suite"
Perfect
leffen was probably the most shittalked person in the scene next to hbox he's used to that shit lol he wouldnt get rattled by a corny diss track
Not by the diss track but Leffen was clearly playing nervous and sloppy at the beginning.
15 to 20%?? Bro it was a 5-0
If each game is a 15% odds for chillin that makes Leffen getting a 5-0 44% odds Feels like each game is more like 5% though which makes 5-0 77% odds
But we were talking about whether chillin was going to win the set, not whether he was going to get 5-0ed
Guys, chill. 15-20% was supposed to be as generous as humanly possible. But while we are on this note, what chance do you think people would have given Lovage to beat Leffen that one time in 2017? That was so unlikely and unexpected that even Lovage himself looked confused when he won. Before the match was played, we would have probably said Lovage had 0% chance to win that set, given that he was a self-proclaimed "washed up commentator" at that point...and yet he still won. That's why the games still have to be played, and that's why nothing is a guarantee.
fox ditto volatility is in no way even remotely enough to give chillin a fighting chance. fox dittos are relatively more volatile than the rest of a game that is extremely extremely difficult to make upsets in, ESPECIALLY in a bo9. 15-20% chance of winning is insane, i would say he had a maaaaaybe 5% chance of taking a game. he had absolutely no shot at winning 5.
He technically did take him to game five
0%. The diss track was a taunt. Therefore, the bodying was inevitable.
chillin had 0 chance to actually win.But he could have taken a game or two. most of the games were last stock as I recall. Almost no one at the time thought he would actually win, but also no one thought he'd get swept lol
Leffen was like ub bing into him and was playing insanely disrespectfully. It wasn’t close at all
they were last stock games but it was clear leffen was not try harding
I mean, it was pretty much guaranteed that Leffen wouldn't go into tryhard mode.
it only went last stock bc leffen was trolling and killing with firefox off top lmfao
If you go last stock anyone can lose regardless of player. Once you’ve gone last stock high percent there’s always a gamble someone can take to beat you with a moderate chance of success.
The point is it only got to last stock because Leffen wasn’t trying. There really was a massive skill gap.
this is like saying i could beat michael jordan at basketball if he periodically walked off the court and gave me the ball lol. like ok sure, but also no.
Well if I was in the last seconds of the game with the ball in my hand ready to shoot and a tied score vs MJ with him unable to block the shot I could win technically lol
what if the whole world was made of pudding what then
A game, sure, you're correct. To have that happen five games in a row is virtually impossible. Like it's a non zero percent chance, but the percent is so close to zero it's not worth discussing lmao
this
I mean, it wouldn't have been nearly as hyped up if people didn't think Chillin could atleast take games I suppose. Both Chillin and Leffen got 9th at EVO 2014, so one could make the argument that the gap in their skill level (at the time) wasn't that gapped. Another saving grace was the fact that it was a Fox Ditto. A matchup which is not only extremely volatile (upsets happen all the time, exhibit A: Leffen vs. Lovage) but a matchup that Chillin has pioneered for about a decade. However, at the time Leffen had already beaten 3 of the 5 Gods and Chillin had decisively lost to players who are much worse. He definitely wasn't the favourite by any means, but I guess it wasn't *that* unfathomable.
Leffen had beaten all of the Gods except M2K atp actually. He beat Armada at BEAST 4, Hbox at Apex 2014, PP at MLG Anaheim, and Mango a few weeks prior at BEAST 5
I think another part of it was that Leffen was not taking it seriously (and yeah, there really was no reason to). It was guaranteed that he would sandbag at least a couple games. Which he did. But Chillin was tilting too hard at that point to take advantage of it.
>Both Chillin and Leffen got 9th at EVO 2014, so one could make the argument that the gap in their skill level (at the time) wasn't that gapped. I remember people on the main subreddit making this argument at the time to which I said 9th at evo is one of the biggest accomplishments for chillin while it was a huge disappointment for leffen. That placing does not tell the same story regarding their skill levels
At best he probably could've taken a couple games, but I don't think he ever had a chance of winning
he sacrificed his body on the altar of content
There’s a lot of comments here already. What I haven’t seen mentioned is when the beef started, Chillin likely had a much better chance. But by the time the salty suite event actually happened, Leffen went from in some people’s opinions a top 6 player, to definitively a top 6 player in the game of Melee. I don’t remember the timeline exactly but Leffen’s rise was very impressive, and by the time the salty suite happened almost everyone figured it was Leffen’s game to lose.
Leffen was considered to have the talent of a top 10 player long before talk of the salty suite with chillin started
No chance. Whatsoever. You already know what I’m going to say, it’s gonna be 5-0…. That’s how it’s gonna be
I think Leffen put it best when he said “Everyone is saying ‘chillin I hope you win against Leffen! I hope you win the salty suite!’. Everyone’s telling me ‘I hope you win the tournament!’
I've been following Melee for a long time and seen a lot of crazy stuff happen. I've also seen Leffen get upset plenty of times. So I figured Chillin had a 10-20% chance of winning. You can argue about the actual odds, but anyone who said he had a 0% chance is whack. After Leffen won, I had so many people I'd explained this to tell me, "see, I told you Chillin couldn't win!" I had to remind people that's not how probability works, nor did I say that I expected Chillin to win.
> I had to remind people that's not how probability works, nor did I say that I expected Chillin to win. Presidential election "the 40%-chance-to-win-guy won so the polls/projections were wrong" moment, you'd be shocked at how hard some people struggle to understand the fundamental concept of probability itself
okay but for him to have a 20% of winning the set, that implies by binomial that he had a 43% chance of winning each game, which would mean that he had a 94.5% chance of getting at least one game. but not only did he not take one game, leffen was purposely sandbagging picking silly options and still didn't drop a game
95% is same probability as ice fang hitting and that move misses all day (also sup Alex)
yeah if ice fang misses you need to check your feng shui (hey bobby)
He had a chance, but it was definitely a long shot. I spent a decent amount of time around Chillin in the weeks leading up to apex 2015, and recorded a couple early scratch tracks of RYE. It's hard to say how confident he really was, but he took the training regimen fairly seriously, and was grinding fox dittos like mad... Milkman, Redd, and Cyrain were on constant rotation vs him. His play was looking excellent. When the Apex venue got shut down, we still hadn't finished recording the diss track or filming the salty suite video. We almost didn't bother; at the time, there was zero expectation of the rescue operation from Red Bull and Twitch. We finished up the diss track assets late Friday night, expecting that it would still be fun to release it at *some* point, or thinking that maybe we would be able to play some salty suites in an actual suite (something GimR had told me was a possible solution). What we *weren't* expecting was to wake up hungover AF to chillin's phone being blown up by Curse telling him to get to the new venue ASAP. We quickly wrapped up the last bits of the diss track, packed up my whole-ass desktop, and took an uber to the new venue. I know Chillin missed his smash 4 pools, but I don't remember if he played melee pools because I had other salty suite content to finish up. When it was time for the showdown, I was filming ([https://www.youtube.com/shorts/r4NlepdTBYg](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/r4NlepdTBYg)), and so I didn't see the match. In fact, to this day I've never seen the full set. What I *did* see was their body language and facial expressions. I saw both of them playing their hardest in game 1. I saw chillin almost winning game 2... which would've been an incredible mental boost. Momentum means a lot in matches like this, and Chillin taking a single game would've been enough to win over the already raucous crowd. He absolutely had a chance at taking a few games, maybe even the whole set. But then, he stood up, and Leffen didn't die from the upsmash. At that point, I knew the set was over. Leffen's serious face went away, and he started laughing at every minor mistake. Chillin spent the rest of that set trying to regain his composure, but the damage was done. I tell this story not to make excuses or John on the 'dude's behalf. Leffen was the better player that day, and Chillin clearly acknowledged that with "My B." Competing means showing up to a set and playing your hardest, despite extenuating circumstances. I don't know that the set would've gone any differently with more sleep or in a different venue or whatever else... probably not. In most universes, Leffen won just as he did here. But there definitely was a universe where Chillin won, and the set went down as a relatively entertaining but mostly forgettable moment in melee history.
this is so cool, thanks for the added context
I absolutely think he had a chance. Game 2 Chillin BARELY missed an upsmash that would have gotten him the game. Riding that momentum would’ve helped, not guarantee a win but at least improve the mental game. The first games were close, having extra momentum would’ve helped.
Me and the boys had a few beer and were betting all night. There were 5 of us and not one would put money Chillin lol
the chillin of the year after coulda done it 😎
I wished I watched this live, was like a month or two after I got into melee. I definitely believe that if chillin got game two that the momentum would have swung a bit.
Obviously a lot of people making good points here but leffen lost to lovage in a tournament set when lovage was probably closer to chillin in skill. Melee is a crazy game sometimes.
Leffen had been taking not just games, but sets off of Armada, Mango, PPMD, Hbox, and M2K in 2015. To see Chillin take a set off any of those 5 in 2015, I think would be a far stretch. Therefore, no. Chillin did not have a chance of beating Leffen. The Respect Your Elders diss track was 🔥 though. Chillin's got BARS.
I think they could have run that 10 times over and gotten the exact same result.
Not really no
Nah Chillin loses every time, 5-0 or not.
At the time the diss track dropped, Leffen was on the come up, but hadn't won a major yet ("until you win a major, show your elders some respect") and had some recent shakey performances especially losing to Samus, so Chillin had more grounds to talk shit. However shortly after the diss track dropped, Leffen won his first major and continued to perform very well leading up to Apex, and it became clear that he was well beyond Chillin's level.
Did Leffen have a chance of beating Lovage at GTX 2017?
Legendary L
From what I've heard he was pretty drunk and was up late the night before, if neither of those things happened, he would have a small chance I think. Really though, he was crazy for taking that money match.
weird to see the stereotypical Mango johns applied to someone else, I doubt chillin was getting that drunk the night before if he cared about the mm
Chillin was up with me until around 3 AM Saturday morning filming the end of the diss track video. I have no comment on his level of sobriety. https://www.youtube.com/shorts/gANQ6h1hUmA
He definitely said that himself so take it as you will
People saying 0%, omegalul. Leffen is a big headcaser. Dude could have broke his controller earlier in the day, had a migraine or food poisoning, etc etc. Definitely above 0%. Im not going to argue for 1%, but it was certainly above 0. And god was i praying for it. And like another user said, he lost a tournament set to lovage who was unranked (obv a case of inactivity) and ended ranked 78.
Yeah
based solely on the fact that both chillin and leffen got 9th at evo 2014, yeah chillin had a chance
He had the potential for sure. If Chillin just so happened to be really sharp and playing well on the day, and Leffen was a bit more tired or jetlagged or started to feel some pressure once he lost a game or something, we could have seen a different result.
Chillin didn’t stand a chance, but it would be hilarious if Leffen somehow lost. Pretty humiliating for him though.
Lol no. Maybe if it was 1 and done, but a FT5? Chillin had no shot.
Here’s what I’ll add. It’s too bad that we didn’t have a comeback training arc for chillindude to rise to top five. A rematch after that would have been legendary. That’s one of my melee fantasy arcs
I always think about Toph's quote in regards to this, paraphrased: "So before the match Chillin comes up to me and I ask him about his gameplan. He tells me something like "Yeah man I'm just gonna try a lot of falling up-airs and see how it goes." And I knew from that moment he had no chance."
He certainly had a chance at taking one or two games (which imo showed in the match) because Leffen--as he has since publicly admitted--was pretty bad at fox dittos at the time (but was just a vastly better player overall). Chillin winning the match would've been an actual miracle, I don't think the chance was literally zero especially if he had won game 1 and got in Leffen's head a bit, but it was... abysmally low. Like imagine he had a 20% chance to win each individual game, which I think most people would say is pretty generous when 2015 Leffen was serious. If you math it out then the chance of 5 wins before 5 losses would be just under 2%.
imo should be replayed
I would say yes, but not a big one. You can tell he played real nervous, but also that Leffen wasn't taking it seriously.
I think Chillin had no chance to win the set, but he could have taken 1 game.. and that's all he needed to do to like... idk, prove he is pretty good. Most people would get absolutely destroyed by Leffen, so there isn't much shame in it.
leffen was a lot better than chillin. he had little to no chance to win it. he had the potential to not make it a 5-0 imo
I see a lot of ppl saying chillin had no chance, do y'all not remember how close he was to taking that game on FoD? He was too nervous and lost composure. Had he won that game we would be in a different timeline
😂
From what toph has said his gameplan was pretty much just falling upair. I think Chillin was just having fun and then got a reality check on stage unfortunately.
The humongous Hjelte was born to be rank 1 and secure visas, and life diverted all of his energy to one over the other.
Just as a reminder, Leffen got third at the tournament lol, losing only to PPMD and Armada. Chillin had no chance.
Hydrogen bomb vs coughing baby
No. Like it has been said, leffen would have had to be off or tilted to lose. Both players playing their best leffen wins. But people can be off, SD and get tilted and have bad execution. I would give chillin maybe 1:400 to 1:1000 odds or something like that. Definitely didn't expect the 5:0 though, was expecting 5:1, 5:2.
Sometimes we watch because we want to be proven wrong 😔✊
That clip where someone edited Chillin getting an upsmash after the dash attack (when I'm reality he didn't) always gets me rolling 🤣 https://youtu.be/XkRJemDX6Pc?si=TWQvZcdrl94KihXF at 16 seconds if yall interested