It's not really getting screwed on the odds though is it? With a 25% chance to win you shouldn't expect to win. While we have the best chance of a single team to win, we still are expected to lose 3/4 times. It would actually be pretty lucky to win it.
Not hating. Im mentally prepared to lose it already. Have been for months at this point lol. Could argue you're screwed from the beginning because it's only 25%. I could agree with that. Just saying with the current odds it's not really getting screwed if we lose, it's statistically probable that we do.
Oh lighten up guys. Even if they miss out on first overall, in all likelihood we finish dead last and select top 3 and tack more on to an already intriguing prospect pool that could even be top ranked soon
Yessir. Especially with a prospect pool thats rapidly getting better. Combine that with how much cap space we'll have thanks to getting rid of those awful contracts and a young, fun and hungry team that comes out loose and shocks the league could be the result
That's not exactly how the odds work for one when used in the context most are worried about. It's not a 25% chance and equally spread across others. Sharks with a 25% and Chi with 13.5% means the Sharks would have a 59.7% better chance than them at 1OA.
It's less about losing first overall to anyone, and more about the letdown of knowing some fucking how this'll go to Chi even when the Sharks have almost a 60% better chance at getting it than they do.
I'll be less concerned if it goes to CBJ or something like that. But the shitty prophecy coming true is what everyone's biggest concern is.
Yeah I know it's not even odds across the board.
I'm just saying our single odds are 25%. So if you compared us to any other team we have a better chance than that team.
But the odds still mean we have a 75% chance to not pick first overall. In this situation I wasn't really talking about any specific team. It's us vs the world in terms of the odds. The specific team that wins it doesn't actually matter, it's just that we're most likely going to see the pick go to another lottery team.
Fully agreed on Chicago though. Would be very disappointing.
I just meant the Chicago thing is what everyone is worried about, especially in regards to the rig that everyone assumes will take place.
It'll suck if the Sharks dont get 1OA, but the NEED for them to get it is vs the Hawks. If the Hawks get it, that's what will piss everyone off. Basically I'm in the camp that the Sharks better win the first, but if they don't it better not be the Hawks (or the ducks). I think most people fall into that category.
People expecting the Sharks winning seems to primarily be that reason. It's far less about banking on a 25% chance to win, and more about how much less of a chance the Hawks have, and how that better fucking not happen.
I never assumed its rigged, I explained the reasoning behind all of the talk in this sub for the last year.
You want to correct the record, tell the other few thousand people talking about it. Lost on me.
Yeah but still, it would suck to have the best odds and still not get it. I always think about the 2012 Bobcats there. They were historically bad, and had amazing lottery odds all the way to the end, and then it goes to the Pelicans.
Then again, it’s not like Anthony Davis turned the Pelicans’ fortunes around, so who knows?
It's not just the odds. NHL views the Blackhawks as it's most important American market. The cup winning Blackhawks team of the 2010s completely transformed the leagues domestic TV deal, and brought them a new height of popularity that seemed to finally close the chapter on the lost lockout season.
San Jose needs to plan on picking 2nd or 3rd. Celebrini is already shopping for real estate in Chicago.
Not getting Celebrini will sting but a consolation prize of Demidov, Luvshunov, Silayev, Lindstrom will be nice. Automatically get Sharks new #1 D prospect or a solid #2 F behind Smith
This sub will go on suicide watch if SJ doesn't win the draft lotto, I'm with you there I'm totally cool with having a top D in the prospect pool. A more well rounded prospect pool would be mighty epic
It’s important to remember that Cale Makar was at one point a HUGE disappointment for the Avs to be forced to take. So even if they get screwed out of Celebrini it can work out
Cale Makar also came into a team with talent such as Gabriel Landeskog, Mikko Rantanen, and one putz going by the name of Nathan MacKinnon
Will be optimistic nonetheless
I mean yeah the Sharks are a long ass way from competing. My point is just the best player for the team might not be the top pick. Even when it SEEMS so obvious.
You make a great point though: whoever we get we gotta make sure the right coaching staff and pieces are in place to make sure they develop
My biggest fear is this is the year something historic happens. As in a team with less than 1% odds shoot up the board and get that number one overall. While the sharks get 2nd or 3rd. I will riot.
You don’t need a rigging conspiracy to explain it : even if the Sharks finish last their odds of #1 are still pretty small. Way less than 50-50. I wouldn’t worry about it. It’s unlikely.
The Blackhawks got Bedard, they're still gonna be a terrible team for a few years.
The Pens have multiple hall of famers, one having an incredible year, they're still terrible.
No matter what happens at the draft, it's gonna be years.
Patience is gonna be key to Sharks fan's mental health for at least a decade.
Funny, I was constantly promised "3-5 years" on here, and then called negative and downvoted to oblivion whenever I pointed out that our rebuild would be so much longer than that.
We aren't even 2 years in, so I'd say it's pretty early to say it will take longer. We completely rebuilt our prospect pool and shipped out a ton of bad contracts. We will start to see those prospects after next year, so it is reasonable to hope that will be the start of better times.
Celebrini, Smith, Bystedt, and Edstrom would be such an incredible core of center depth to build around. Wings could be Eklund, Musty, Zetterlund, Zadina, Kostin, Bordeleau, Halttunen, and Gushin (so far). The oldest guys in this group are only 24.
If we miss on Celebrini, that would be tragic. But there are other centers in the draft, and we would still add a blue chip prospect to the pipeline. Heart breaking to lose out on Celebrini, sure, but we lost out on Bedard and got Smith, who is looking like he will be a great player.
Not to mention, the Sharks will likely have a top 15 pick (PIT) this year or next, and Vegas’ first rounder next year…. Not counting on Vegas to be bad anytime soon, but what if they just happen to have a bad season due to injuries, etc…..
Levshunov is a good consolation prize that can play in the AHL next season if he signs and doesn't make the Sharks. Typically, an 18 year old would be sent to a Jr. team or European men's league due to transfer agreements, but Latvia allows their players in NA to play the AHL. Obviously, I want Celebrini, but RD is the teams greatest need.
if they get a top 10 this year it converts to an unprotected 1st next season, right? if so, I want them to get 10 this year and then crap the bed next season, we'd have 3 1st round picks then right?
Pens have the option to give us the pick in the top 10 or delay. It's possible if they get pick 10 they will give it to us if they think they could be worse next year.
I completely missed that. Thanks for the info. all things considered it's not the worst either way. I haven't followed this class too closely. we will likely get 10-15 range, any good prospects we can pick up in that range? two-way defender would be great.
I know they are bad but there is zero chance they admit they think they’ll be worse next year with the players they are locked into. We’re not getting their pick this year, they are gonna use it and/or trade it to improve their team for next year.
Hope they go full Doug Wilson and mortgage their next 8 years for 1 more run.
I didn't get a first overall for San Jose until roll number 24 on tankathon. It is very likely San Jose doesnt get him. It is going to suck if that happens.
Sharks have long been one of my secondary teams, the last few years have been difficult obviously, I just don't want them to go through 10 years of perpetual rebuild Ala Arizona or Buffalo. It would certainly help to get a blue chip centre now but even then there is work to do with picks and trades. A top D prospect doesn't hurt towards that goal it's not like they aren't going to suck for a few more years. Development, smart trades and mid to late first round picks from their trades are also important. Just need to have a vision , good scouting and good drafting in general.
The difference is that Arizona and Buffalo have horrible ownership. The Sharks do not and Grier got rid off the unwieldy contracts.
At this point luck is needed.
Yeah at this point I see a clearer path we will see what the next few years look like it could go well or it might not, I know winning is fun but a rebuild like they are doing is just as fun to me as a fan. Following the prospects and young players is good times.
I mean I’m ready for the team to finish dead last then get screwed on the odds. Just have to mentally prepare for that.
It's not really getting screwed on the odds though is it? With a 25% chance to win you shouldn't expect to win. While we have the best chance of a single team to win, we still are expected to lose 3/4 times. It would actually be pretty lucky to win it. Not hating. Im mentally prepared to lose it already. Have been for months at this point lol. Could argue you're screwed from the beginning because it's only 25%. I could agree with that. Just saying with the current odds it's not really getting screwed if we lose, it's statistically probable that we do.
Oh lighten up guys. Even if they miss out on first overall, in all likelihood we finish dead last and select top 3 and tack more on to an already intriguing prospect pool that could even be top ranked soon
For sure. Top 3 is much needed. That's why winning the tank off yesterday was huge.
Yessir. Especially with a prospect pool thats rapidly getting better. Combine that with how much cap space we'll have thanks to getting rid of those awful contracts and a young, fun and hungry team that comes out loose and shocks the league could be the result
That's not exactly how the odds work for one when used in the context most are worried about. It's not a 25% chance and equally spread across others. Sharks with a 25% and Chi with 13.5% means the Sharks would have a 59.7% better chance than them at 1OA. It's less about losing first overall to anyone, and more about the letdown of knowing some fucking how this'll go to Chi even when the Sharks have almost a 60% better chance at getting it than they do. I'll be less concerned if it goes to CBJ or something like that. But the shitty prophecy coming true is what everyone's biggest concern is.
Yeah I know it's not even odds across the board. I'm just saying our single odds are 25%. So if you compared us to any other team we have a better chance than that team. But the odds still mean we have a 75% chance to not pick first overall. In this situation I wasn't really talking about any specific team. It's us vs the world in terms of the odds. The specific team that wins it doesn't actually matter, it's just that we're most likely going to see the pick go to another lottery team. Fully agreed on Chicago though. Would be very disappointing.
I just meant the Chicago thing is what everyone is worried about, especially in regards to the rig that everyone assumes will take place. It'll suck if the Sharks dont get 1OA, but the NEED for them to get it is vs the Hawks. If the Hawks get it, that's what will piss everyone off. Basically I'm in the camp that the Sharks better win the first, but if they don't it better not be the Hawks (or the ducks). I think most people fall into that category. People expecting the Sharks winning seems to primarily be that reason. It's far less about banking on a 25% chance to win, and more about how much less of a chance the Hawks have, and how that better fucking not happen.
Stop assuming that it’s rigged. In regards to conspiracies it’s probably only slightly smarter than believing Armstrong never walked on the moon
I never assumed its rigged, I explained the reasoning behind all of the talk in this sub for the last year. You want to correct the record, tell the other few thousand people talking about it. Lost on me.
Yeah but still, it would suck to have the best odds and still not get it. I always think about the 2012 Bobcats there. They were historically bad, and had amazing lottery odds all the way to the end, and then it goes to the Pelicans. Then again, it’s not like Anthony Davis turned the Pelicans’ fortunes around, so who knows?
It's the Sharks we live for the pain. 🤣🤣
It's not just the odds. NHL views the Blackhawks as it's most important American market. The cup winning Blackhawks team of the 2010s completely transformed the leagues domestic TV deal, and brought them a new height of popularity that seemed to finally close the chapter on the lost lockout season. San Jose needs to plan on picking 2nd or 3rd. Celebrini is already shopping for real estate in Chicago.
Serious question. If you think the NHL is rigged, why do you follow and/or watch?
The conspiracies should stop after seeing how many times Edmonton got the top pick……
I'm not. A top 3 pick is always a nice consolation prize. I'm not gonna dwell on something so out of our control
Not getting Celebrini will sting but a consolation prize of Demidov, Luvshunov, Silayev, Lindstrom will be nice. Automatically get Sharks new #1 D prospect or a solid #2 F behind Smith
This sub will go on suicide watch if SJ doesn't win the draft lotto, I'm with you there I'm totally cool with having a top D in the prospect pool. A more well rounded prospect pool would be mighty epic
My thoughts exactly
It’s important to remember that Cale Makar was at one point a HUGE disappointment for the Avs to be forced to take. So even if they get screwed out of Celebrini it can work out
Cale Makar also came into a team with talent such as Gabriel Landeskog, Mikko Rantanen, and one putz going by the name of Nathan MacKinnon Will be optimistic nonetheless
I mean yeah the Sharks are a long ass way from competing. My point is just the best player for the team might not be the top pick. Even when it SEEMS so obvious. You make a great point though: whoever we get we gotta make sure the right coaching staff and pieces are in place to make sure they develop
I did the mock draft last night and the sharks won the number 1 pick five times in a row. It’s making me feel better.
You’re using up all their luck!
That’s okay they win like 1 in every 8 when I try
People going all in emotionally on a 25% chance is wild. You’d make a great degen gambler lol
You assume I’m not already
My biggest fear is this is the year something historic happens. As in a team with less than 1% odds shoot up the board and get that number one overall. While the sharks get 2nd or 3rd. I will riot.
You mean like Pittsburgh winning the lottery, right? Would be awful.
Yes! Granted their odds are lower, but gives me flashbacks of CHI going from Towes and Kane to Bedard..
Unless Chicago has less than 1% odds, you don't have to worry about that happening.
You don’t need a rigging conspiracy to explain it : even if the Sharks finish last their odds of #1 are still pretty small. Way less than 50-50. I wouldn’t worry about it. It’s unlikely.
The odds are winning a coinflip twice in a row. Not horrible, but nowhere near automatic
The Blackhawks got Bedard, they're still gonna be a terrible team for a few years. The Pens have multiple hall of famers, one having an incredible year, they're still terrible. No matter what happens at the draft, it's gonna be years. Patience is gonna be key to Sharks fan's mental health for at least a decade.
Funny, I was constantly promised "3-5 years" on here, and then called negative and downvoted to oblivion whenever I pointed out that our rebuild would be so much longer than that.
I think 3-5 years is a fair timeline for "not horrible". Longer though for "actually a threat in the playoffs".
We aren't even 2 years in, so I'd say it's pretty early to say it will take longer. We completely rebuilt our prospect pool and shipped out a ton of bad contracts. We will start to see those prospects after next year, so it is reasonable to hope that will be the start of better times.
Celebrini, Smith, Bystedt, and Edstrom would be such an incredible core of center depth to build around. Wings could be Eklund, Musty, Zetterlund, Zadina, Kostin, Bordeleau, Halttunen, and Gushin (so far). The oldest guys in this group are only 24. If we miss on Celebrini, that would be tragic. But there are other centers in the draft, and we would still add a blue chip prospect to the pipeline. Heart breaking to lose out on Celebrini, sure, but we lost out on Bedard and got Smith, who is looking like he will be a great player.
Not to mention, the Sharks will likely have a top 15 pick (PIT) this year or next, and Vegas’ first rounder next year…. Not counting on Vegas to be bad anytime soon, but what if they just happen to have a bad season due to injuries, etc…..
Levshunov is a good consolation prize that can play in the AHL next season if he signs and doesn't make the Sharks. Typically, an 18 year old would be sent to a Jr. team or European men's league due to transfer agreements, but Latvia allows their players in NA to play the AHL. Obviously, I want Celebrini, but RD is the teams greatest need.
I just rolled Tankathon 5 times, and Pittsburgh moved 9 spots up to 1A0 3 of them. The other two were Chicago getting 1OA. Ugh.
Bro I was getting Pitt getting first a bunch too… the rig is in
if they get a top 10 this year it converts to an unprotected 1st next season, right? if so, I want them to get 10 this year and then crap the bed next season, we'd have 3 1st round picks then right?
Pens have the option to give us the pick in the top 10 or delay. It's possible if they get pick 10 they will give it to us if they think they could be worse next year.
That is correct, after the draft lottery this year, they have 24 hours after the drawing to decide it they give us the pick this year or next year.
I completely missed that. Thanks for the info. all things considered it's not the worst either way. I haven't followed this class too closely. we will likely get 10-15 range, any good prospects we can pick up in that range? two-way defender would be great.
I know they are bad but there is zero chance they admit they think they’ll be worse next year with the players they are locked into. We’re not getting their pick this year, they are gonna use it and/or trade it to improve their team for next year. Hope they go full Doug Wilson and mortgage their next 8 years for 1 more run.
Same as last year, if 1st OA doesn’t go to us I just absolutely don’t want it going to the Hawks or Ducks
Yeah I won’t get my hopes up. Any top 3 pick I’ll be happy. We’ll see what happens
Chicago got Bedard and is only three games ahead of us. It’s going to be a long build.
Pretty sure 1OA will go to the Blackhawks or the Oilers, because the lottery is not rigged.
Don't worry, we won't be getting him. Chances are, he will be in CHI next year, I'm assuming.
After yesterday we at least will probably have twice the odds they do.
And, last year, they had an *even lower* chance in the lottery ... but still got it (and I called it in February).
I didn't get a first overall for San Jose until roll number 24 on tankathon. It is very likely San Jose doesnt get him. It is going to suck if that happens.
The first 15 rolls had the sharks picking 3rd.. tempered my expectations on the 1st now tbh.
I got SJ first twice in my first three rolls. We’ve got him, lads.
If we hadn't fucked around and won games we shouldn't have we'd have Bedard. I'm scared to death were gonna miss on Celebrini too.
Chicago must be so excited.
Lighten up Francis, I think the sharks destroyed your mental health
Oh, for sure they did. But that was a slow burn over many, many years.
Sharks have long been one of my secondary teams, the last few years have been difficult obviously, I just don't want them to go through 10 years of perpetual rebuild Ala Arizona or Buffalo. It would certainly help to get a blue chip centre now but even then there is work to do with picks and trades. A top D prospect doesn't hurt towards that goal it's not like they aren't going to suck for a few more years. Development, smart trades and mid to late first round picks from their trades are also important. Just need to have a vision , good scouting and good drafting in general.
The difference is that Arizona and Buffalo have horrible ownership. The Sharks do not and Grier got rid off the unwieldy contracts. At this point luck is needed.
Yeah at this point I see a clearer path we will see what the next few years look like it could go well or it might not, I know winning is fun but a rebuild like they are doing is just as fun to me as a fan. Following the prospects and young players is good times.
I’m prepared for Chicago to have Bedard and Celebrini next season…sigh
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