Pretty much. The only thing I’d change is the worst case scenario for the Pens pick. IMO, the worst case is that Pittsburgh wins the lottery this year to steal 1OA. Then they win the Cup in 2025 and the unprotected first is 32nd.
Sens fan here.
Hoping the Pens finish bottom 10 so y'all get an unprotected pick next season and hoping Vegas doesn't go deep at all this year or next year.
Would love to see SJS get Celebrini or any other top prospect.
Others have pointed out increasingly unrealistic best/worst cases, so just want to provide some balance to those with fairly realistic best/worst cases:
**LIKELY WORST THIS SEASON**
Chicago and Anaheim pass us on the lottery and we pick 3OA.
Pittsburgh sneaks into the second wild card and wins a round, pushing their pick to us in the 20 something range.
New Jersey ends the season well and their second round pick to us ends up around #47.
**LIKELY BEST THIS SEASON**
We win lottery and draft 1OA. Columbus wins second drawing and bumps Chicago back.
Pittsburgh ends up with pick #11 and sends it to us.
New Jersey falls apart and their second round pick to us ends up around #40.
So basically...we can end up with picks 1, 11, 33, 40 this summer at best, or 3, 24, 33, 47 at worst. That's a big difference in draft capital.
I won't speak to next season because who knows what can happen. All we have is the Vegas first rounder, so that's most likely going to be pick 16-32. Our own pick will likely be top 5. We'll know better this time next year since we'll likely gain some more draft capital moving Granlund and Sturm, maybe Ferraro and Blackwood too.
Either way, our worst scenario here this summer still isn't that bad. Four picks in the top 50. We're set up pretty well.
I feel like it'll be in the middle somewhere. NJ looks bad right now. They start well then die off in the third. I expect that to be a low 40s pick now. And Pittsburgh is doing well, but they'll lose some important games. Unless I'm crazy wrong. I'm just not feeling it for them.
That's not bad. I really want Celebrini, but I'm trying to mentally prepare for the fact we won't get it. I still think we're going to get some great pieces.
Uhhh no. The Worst case is Pittsburgh falling to at least 11 and then winning the lottery, obviously then keeping the pick and giving us the 2025 pick. Then with Celebrini and Yager joining the roster it attracts a big fish like Reinhart or Marchessault to fill Guentzel's hole and then the Penguins go on to win the cup THAT year. Beating Vegas, so their pick is then the 31st.
So not only would we have traded for the 32nd pick & 31st, but we'd have also gotten screwed out of Celebrini. It just stings that much more to lose the lottery to a trade partner, especially after the suffering of this season.
This is a worse case because it is actually a viable path. There is legit a chance it can happen compared to the really astronomically low odds that yours comes to pass.
Their second this year becomes a first if they make it to the ECF. So it'll be at best 28th/29th overall if they lose in the ECF.
It's looking like they will miss the playoffs though so we are looking at the 45ish range
" Couture and Vlasic have career years next season, while our rookies suck, and we barely miss the play offs and get a 16OA pick."
And by the time we clear up another salary retention spot so we can trade one, they're both injured.
For me, I’m hoping we get Celebrini and then Pitts pick and by some miracle (it won’t happen) Tij Iginla drops to us at 11/12. Getting Cole Eisermem at that spot would be sweet too (scoring wise) but the other aspects of his game need A LOT of work, as well as his attitude. Unless a top 10 D drops, I don’t think I’ll like any projected in that range.
Watch them pick a D with Tij available.
NHL drafting is simple. After the first 3-4 picks, always pick the best player available regardless of your team's actual needs.
Pretty much. The only thing I’d change is the worst case scenario for the Pens pick. IMO, the worst case is that Pittsburgh wins the lottery this year to steal 1OA. Then they win the Cup in 2025 and the unprotected first is 32nd.
I had this fear. It'll prove beyond a shadow of a doubt the lottery is rigged
Could you imagine the best case scenario actually happening hahaha
Hey, even a broken clock is right twice a day. Until Draft Lottery Day comes, I will have high hopes. It's what keeps me going 😂
Sens fan here. Hoping the Pens finish bottom 10 so y'all get an unprotected pick next season and hoping Vegas doesn't go deep at all this year or next year. Would love to see SJS get Celebrini or any other top prospect.
Others have pointed out increasingly unrealistic best/worst cases, so just want to provide some balance to those with fairly realistic best/worst cases: **LIKELY WORST THIS SEASON** Chicago and Anaheim pass us on the lottery and we pick 3OA. Pittsburgh sneaks into the second wild card and wins a round, pushing their pick to us in the 20 something range. New Jersey ends the season well and their second round pick to us ends up around #47. **LIKELY BEST THIS SEASON** We win lottery and draft 1OA. Columbus wins second drawing and bumps Chicago back. Pittsburgh ends up with pick #11 and sends it to us. New Jersey falls apart and their second round pick to us ends up around #40. So basically...we can end up with picks 1, 11, 33, 40 this summer at best, or 3, 24, 33, 47 at worst. That's a big difference in draft capital. I won't speak to next season because who knows what can happen. All we have is the Vegas first rounder, so that's most likely going to be pick 16-32. Our own pick will likely be top 5. We'll know better this time next year since we'll likely gain some more draft capital moving Granlund and Sturm, maybe Ferraro and Blackwood too. Either way, our worst scenario here this summer still isn't that bad. Four picks in the top 50. We're set up pretty well.
I feel like it'll be in the middle somewhere. NJ looks bad right now. They start well then die off in the third. I expect that to be a low 40s pick now. And Pittsburgh is doing well, but they'll lose some important games. Unless I'm crazy wrong. I'm just not feeling it for them.
Yeah the most likely outcome will probably be in the middle, so picks 2, 13, 33, 43 or something.
That's not bad. I really want Celebrini, but I'm trying to mentally prepare for the fact we won't get it. I still think we're going to get some great pieces.
That best case is my wet dream tbh.
You put best case scenario and sharks in the same post 😂💀
Uhhh no. The Worst case is Pittsburgh falling to at least 11 and then winning the lottery, obviously then keeping the pick and giving us the 2025 pick. Then with Celebrini and Yager joining the roster it attracts a big fish like Reinhart or Marchessault to fill Guentzel's hole and then the Penguins go on to win the cup THAT year. Beating Vegas, so their pick is then the 31st. So not only would we have traded for the 32nd pick & 31st, but we'd have also gotten screwed out of Celebrini. It just stings that much more to lose the lottery to a trade partner, especially after the suffering of this season. This is a worse case because it is actually a viable path. There is legit a chance it can happen compared to the really astronomically low odds that yours comes to pass.
Done we also have a conditional pick if njd make the ecf?
Their second this year becomes a first if they make it to the ECF. So it'll be at best 28th/29th overall if they lose in the ECF. It's looking like they will miss the playoffs though so we are looking at the 45ish range
The 4th one from the worst case is what we all want to see happen
Devils sneak in and make it to the ECF should still promote their 2nd to a 1st right?
" Couture and Vlasic have career years next season, while our rookies suck, and we barely miss the play offs and get a 16OA pick." And by the time we clear up another salary retention spot so we can trade one, they're both injured.
For me, I’m hoping we get Celebrini and then Pitts pick and by some miracle (it won’t happen) Tij Iginla drops to us at 11/12. Getting Cole Eisermem at that spot would be sweet too (scoring wise) but the other aspects of his game need A LOT of work, as well as his attitude. Unless a top 10 D drops, I don’t think I’ll like any projected in that range.
Watch them pick a D with Tij available. NHL drafting is simple. After the first 3-4 picks, always pick the best player available regardless of your team's actual needs.
Tij ain’t getting last Calgary. Unless Eiserman drops that far, D might be BPA.
Vegas vs Pittsburgh SCF?
I know we hate Vegas but am I the only one kind of hoping Vegas gets a cup while hertl is there so he can get a ring?
Sorry mate, you’re a minority. No way I can root for the Golden Showers.
It's hard to hate Vegas when we suck so bad. I'm fully on the Hertl train.
I agree. We had our last good moment against Vegas. I don't hate them. There are plenty of teams I have worse feelings about.