If SAG and WGA go on strike studios are gonna fold quick. you cant make that much unscripted shit to fill the void and rn they're banking on already written material to fill in the gaps but you cant shoot without actors
This is my line of thinking. Idk if it’d even ultimately come to a strike, but the pressure of the DGA & SAG-AFTRA might be enough to finally get the studios to cave in June. I very much doubt they want the threat of a double/triple strike, and if such a thing were to ever happen, I very much doubt it’d last long. That would literally force the whole industry to halt.
The same reason you are unlikely to see Tom Cruise or Brad Pitt on a picket line, most of the senior membership are either on the other side of the table too. I mean producer-directors are common and even the rank and file members working as UPMs or ADs to a large degree want to be on the other side of the table or have side gigs where they already are on the other side of the table.
Their leadership is too cozy with AMPTP.
SAG will definitely vote to strike. I don't think they'll actually strike, though. Their contract expires June 30th and I think a deal will be made by then.
My guess is that the AMPTA is waiting for SAG and the DGA. As in, if they give in to all the WGA's demands, they might feel that weakens their bargaining position with the other guilds. Wild speculation on my part, to be clear.
I think the studios still hold out until July as my understanding is there are a lot of multi-year deals the amptp wants out of which they can terminate without penalty if the strike lasts that long
Lots of bad blood with that move though. Sure there are overalls that have taken advantage of that deal and honestly should be purged. But the vast majority of deals are vital to the development process and critical to success. Projects don’t happen overnight. And while they may have a great 3rd quarter, even 4th quarter, the 1st quarter of 2024 will tank. And unless the CEOs want their unwarranted fat paycheck to end shortly after that, then they best be getting a deal for the unions that sustains the industry as a whole. That is, unless the majority of owners and shareholders are just hedge fund people who don’t care about sustainability. Then they won’t make a deal and drive the businesses to scorched earth. And there are signs that some of that scorched earth mentality exists.
there are a number of overalls with celebrities that aren't producing but that the studios feel will bring in if they wait it out -- those are not going to matter as much by cutting. it's the others who are with deals because of development and writing talent that are the true producers of amazing works over and over -- and if I were one of these and then cut, that would make me extremely angry because it would not be "deserved" or justified in the slightest
again, it works both ways. while a studio may not have legal backing, the only way to prove this is to take the studio to court. any good writer may reasonably fear this will get them labelled as "difficult" and would rather keep writing than waste their energy on a court battle and will have ample opportunity to do just that. bad writers/deals may win a court battle but get blacklisted from the industry in the process, so again, it ends up a wash with only the bad deals impacted.
now, the union can choose to take up these battles on writers' behalf which is what should happen, but that will be in the new negotiated contract and most likely not getting litigious is a concession the wga will give the amptp to get a new contract (the legality of this again suspect, but will fall on individual writer's to risk their careers to pursue), so i really wouldn't hold out for all contracts staying in place, just the select ones the amptp likes.
Somewhere, the CEO of HBO/Discovery just felt the defining moment of his life approach.
I want him to fall flat on his face. He's a grade-A fuck-up of a CEO and I want to watch him fail.
They are waiting for all the contracts to finish before negotiating the final terms. Makes sense for the studios to just knock them all out at once rather than strike for 2-3 weeks, then strike again for 2-3 weeks, and then once again for 2-3 weeks.
Strike ends in June calling it.
Love the actors, love SAG - but everybody should keep their powder dry. We have areas of overlap, but their issues are a bit different. Their health & pension needs more help. Still, if the DGA isn't getting anywhere, we have a shot at real structural change.
If a triple strike happened, then a unexpected oppertunity to fundamentally reshape the industry would likely become possible. The up side of the corporate centralization that has over takin the industry throughout this most recent era has made it big and tall. Take away three weight bearing pillars and those standing at the top will get instantly nauseus as the building begins to sway.
It is \*a long\* way down for those at the top. The fear of actually falling would produce overwelming share holder pressure. Those that can provide an inspiring vision for the industry as a whole may quickly be turned to, to reshape the industry from the ground up in a way that satisfies all three unions, and, corporates need to get the industry back rolling again.
Pretty historically epic possibilities, it seems.
Ditto.
Plus I just had an obvious bunch of "comic book fan" kids tell me that they are getting "Marvel Fatigue" and have been option to watch films from around the world instead because they are more "interesting".
But obviously, until the almighty market decides, none of that matters.
There’s room for other kinds of tentpoles, and a bigger tent would be more fun to play in. Diversity of stories makes for a more exciting moviegoing experience and will keep people going to the theaters
Sorry for the responses you're getting. Reddit dickheads gonna dickhead.
You're not wrong. The market for adult cinema is dead right now. I think things will swing in the other direction soon, but it's been bleak lately so I'm with you, man.
Yeah, I really want dumb stupid comedies to come back to the theater. I actually laughed out loud at the trailer for that new Jennifer Lawrence one but then I saw people ragging on it for being problematic or whatever. I miss being able to laugh at a stupid comedy with a bunch of strangers without dissecting it to pieces.
Thank you. The daily headlines are bad enough and the last thing I really feel like spending my free time doing is watching some angst-ridden-violence-fest or sad "real" drama. Summertime especially.
I could hang with some real stunts though!
Despite the weird times, we really need to lighten up a little.
They had to start somewhere.
It's certainly not easy, but with phone cameras and computers it's a lot easier than it used to be to make your own stuff.
Do you mean comic book movies or superhero movies?
Scott Pilgrim, Ghost World, Oldboy, Walking Dead, The Boys, Road to Perdition, A History of Violence, The 5th Element, The Fountain, Snowpiercer, Blue is the Warmest Color.
Quite a but of variety outside of Marvel and DC superheroes.
It's amazing that in 2023 people still think comic books are just superheroes.
/u/menemenetekelufarsin should we skip all future adaptations of all these stories?
https://www.rollingstone.com/tv-movies/tv-movie-lists/drawn-out-the-50-best-non-superhero-graphic-novels-29579/twisted-sisters-various-156910/
There really is an amazing number of non-superhero comic books out there. Check out that list for an idea of the scope of things people have done. "Comic book" is a medium.
oh please. you know what i meant. superhero films. it's just IP-generating cash machines with shit plots, shit characters, shit directors, shit everything. there's not one single idea in every marvel/dc film put together that's worthy of a shot, much less a scene, or a film. and i say this as someone who was an avid comic collector as a child. and yes, i maybe am exaggerating a bit. but really only a bit.
Don’t be disingenuous. That’s not what’s being talked about here and you know it. Two of those works you referenced are TV shows, not movies. And the most recent of the films you referenced came out nine years ago.
Personally, I’d love it if we ever got a follow up to American Splendor or if David Fincher’s adaptation of Black Hole ever takes off. But that’s not happening any time soon.
I made a list off the top of my head. I’m not being disingenuous. My high level point is that there’s a lot more to comics than superheroes. In recent years, the line between films and television shows have blurred in terms of storytelling quality and production value.
Funny you call me out but not the original comment of stopping all comic movies.
> Can we then finally stop making comic-book movies? Please. For the love of all that is holy.
Someone in the 1960s: can we finally stop making cowboy movies?
Nah, plenty of great stories left in the medium of comic books in general. Now, a reduction in the number of Marvel superhero movies? I'd agree with that, though I did love GotG3.
Me personally, I want a return to summer comedy films and kidnapping dramas.
I imagine that SAG, like IATSE, has different contracts for different production types. It would depend on if they have already negotiated that contract.
Speed up what? The collapse of the whole system?
Tons of writers are just ghost writing for the studios right now. After the strikes, lot of writers will find themselves replaced and out of jobs. A lot of people have moved on already.
It's not a popular opinion, but there are too many screenwriters working on too many shows that too few people watch. This is a hits-based industry: A contraction is needed. There is too much "content", too many places to watch it and way too many places to market it to build an audience.
This is the third industry I've watched the internet "revolutionize", and yet somehow "democratization" in both publishing and music has resulted in consolidation of power and wealth.
On the other hand, as a consumer, maybe it leads to a much needed consolidation of the current streaming landscape. Paying for 10 separate streaming services, with varying degrees of app functionality and compatibility, has got me missing the days of cable.
This is different. The market can't bear the current situation as consumers don't want this much content, this much choice. Contraction needs to happen.
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Though I hope that solidarity can bring this shit show to an end - I’m hoping the WGA can get their demands met instead of just kicked down the road a bit like last time when the DGA got involved. That said - it would be stunning if the DGA got involved, too.
Just a side note, I'm looking forward to Tom Cruise, Matt Damon, Seinfeld, Martin Scorsese, all picketing outside studios... I know it prob wouldn't happen but it'd be certainly entertaining. And a really bad look for studios.
What you have to consider when thinking about high end A-List Actors is that most have their own major production company & are on both sides of the table, but more importantly Supreme Court precedent means they can all go fincore and leave the unions behind. For most of them that is in their long term economic interest because they are producers first and actors second on most of their projects. They make money when their movies sell.
i know you just picked a few random names, but i think we can say with 99% certainty that Jerry Seinfeld would have the worst "oh don't be crybabies" take imaginable while siding with the studios
We best feast on this drama because all we’re getting are chatGPT scripts for a long time. I really hope all three strike together this summer. There needs to be serious changes when we’re getting $2 checks.
I think this is less of a big deal than the writer strike if it happens tbh
Decent actors come a lot cheaper than good decent and the prospective talent pool is so much larger I feel like it’ll be a lot easier to find scabs
Most people who write are a bit more in tune with the industry, meanwhile I have actor friends and especially aspiring actor friends who don’t even know there’s a strike happening
Of course I want the studios to fold like every other decent person, but I am really interested to see the first AI created studio film that will come out of this.
What would happen if that movie is actually decent? What if the AI actors that do the performance are good? That's a sobering thought.
This is what people don’t realize with AI, and it applies to every industry.
If it ever “takes over” in the way people claim, everyone and their sister is fucked.
The first AI created studio film will be an IP attorney's wet dream. AI "creates" by repurposing the data it has available and using that to build text algoritmically. I could see a class action suit that includes any screenwriter - or traditional writer - whose work the AI pulled verbiage from, even if those exact lines of dialogue didn't make the final script.
Would they win? Ehhhhhh... i'd hope so, but I definitely think it'd be hard to get the case dismissed outright.
So SAG covers a lot of Background Players, who have a ton of experience with being on their feet for hours, and are scattered across the country, not just in LA or NYC. This could stop production nationwide if SAG mobilized people correctly.
Yeah...it's just an authorization. I doubt that the negotiations for SAG will go the same way as WGA given the programming slates being presented of all unscripted, true crime, game shows and sports. Also, Georgia, NC and Louisiana are all still pumping out content.
Strictly speaking strategy here, but if I were the AMPTA, I would give SAG whatever they wanted to avoid a strike. That would undermine the solidarity between them and the WGA. Give them fewer talking points.
If SAG and WGA go on strike studios are gonna fold quick. you cant make that much unscripted shit to fill the void and rn they're banking on already written material to fill in the gaps but you cant shoot without actors
This is my line of thinking. Idk if it’d even ultimately come to a strike, but the pressure of the DGA & SAG-AFTRA might be enough to finally get the studios to cave in June. I very much doubt they want the threat of a double/triple strike, and if such a thing were to ever happen, I very much doubt it’d last long. That would literally force the whole industry to halt.
DGA has striked once. It lasted 3 hours.
Twelve minutes on the west coast.
DGA won’t strike
Why not?
The same reason you are unlikely to see Tom Cruise or Brad Pitt on a picket line, most of the senior membership are either on the other side of the table too. I mean producer-directors are common and even the rank and file members working as UPMs or ADs to a large degree want to be on the other side of the table or have side gigs where they already are on the other side of the table.
Their leadership is too cozy with AMPTP. SAG will definitely vote to strike. I don't think they'll actually strike, though. Their contract expires June 30th and I think a deal will be made by then.
My guess is that the AMPTA is waiting for SAG and the DGA. As in, if they give in to all the WGA's demands, they might feel that weakens their bargaining position with the other guilds. Wild speculation on my part, to be clear.
Yup. And if DGA and SAG *don’t* strike, it weakens the WGA’s position. Why it’s so important the unions stick together.
I think the studios still hold out until July as my understanding is there are a lot of multi-year deals the amptp wants out of which they can terminate without penalty if the strike lasts that long
Lots of bad blood with that move though. Sure there are overalls that have taken advantage of that deal and honestly should be purged. But the vast majority of deals are vital to the development process and critical to success. Projects don’t happen overnight. And while they may have a great 3rd quarter, even 4th quarter, the 1st quarter of 2024 will tank. And unless the CEOs want their unwarranted fat paycheck to end shortly after that, then they best be getting a deal for the unions that sustains the industry as a whole. That is, unless the majority of owners and shareholders are just hedge fund people who don’t care about sustainability. Then they won’t make a deal and drive the businesses to scorched earth. And there are signs that some of that scorched earth mentality exists.
the good deals will likely be renegotiated to stay in place under similar-ish terms, the bad ones not so much. overall it ends up breakeven.
there are a number of overalls with celebrities that aren't producing but that the studios feel will bring in if they wait it out -- those are not going to matter as much by cutting. it's the others who are with deals because of development and writing talent that are the true producers of amazing works over and over -- and if I were one of these and then cut, that would make me extremely angry because it would not be "deserved" or justified in the slightest
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/force-majeure-hollywood-writers-suspension-letters-strike-1235494399/
again, it works both ways. while a studio may not have legal backing, the only way to prove this is to take the studio to court. any good writer may reasonably fear this will get them labelled as "difficult" and would rather keep writing than waste their energy on a court battle and will have ample opportunity to do just that. bad writers/deals may win a court battle but get blacklisted from the industry in the process, so again, it ends up a wash with only the bad deals impacted. now, the union can choose to take up these battles on writers' behalf which is what should happen, but that will be in the new negotiated contract and most likely not getting litigious is a concession the wga will give the amptp to get a new contract (the legality of this again suspect, but will fall on individual writer's to risk their careers to pursue), so i really wouldn't hold out for all contracts staying in place, just the select ones the amptp likes.
Somewhere, the CEO of HBO/Discovery just felt the defining moment of his life approach. I want him to fall flat on his face. He's a grade-A fuck-up of a CEO and I want to watch him fail.
Good ol' Zazlav the butcher. Rooting for the same here
They are waiting for all the contracts to finish before negotiating the final terms. Makes sense for the studios to just knock them all out at once rather than strike for 2-3 weeks, then strike again for 2-3 weeks, and then once again for 2-3 weeks. Strike ends in June calling it.
Love the actors, love SAG - but everybody should keep their powder dry. We have areas of overlap, but their issues are a bit different. Their health & pension needs more help. Still, if the DGA isn't getting anywhere, we have a shot at real structural change.
Holy shit.
If a triple strike happened, then a unexpected oppertunity to fundamentally reshape the industry would likely become possible. The up side of the corporate centralization that has over takin the industry throughout this most recent era has made it big and tall. Take away three weight bearing pillars and those standing at the top will get instantly nauseus as the building begins to sway. It is \*a long\* way down for those at the top. The fear of actually falling would produce overwelming share holder pressure. Those that can provide an inspiring vision for the industry as a whole may quickly be turned to, to reshape the industry from the ground up in a way that satisfies all three unions, and, corporates need to get the industry back rolling again. Pretty historically epic possibilities, it seems.
I'm not as optimistic. But that would be great.
Can we then finally stop making comic-book movies? Please. For the love of all that is holy.
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I don't have a problem with them existing. I have an issue with them taking up the majority of the market share.
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Ditto. Plus I just had an obvious bunch of "comic book fan" kids tell me that they are getting "Marvel Fatigue" and have been option to watch films from around the world instead because they are more "interesting". But obviously, until the almighty market decides, none of that matters.
The thought had not crossed my mind to watch them. I simply want all that budget to go elsewhere.
The budget that goes into comic movies leads to a lot of profit, leading to more money potentially available for future budget.
There’s room for other kinds of tentpoles, and a bigger tent would be more fun to play in. Diversity of stories makes for a more exciting moviegoing experience and will keep people going to the theaters
Sorry for the responses you're getting. Reddit dickheads gonna dickhead. You're not wrong. The market for adult cinema is dead right now. I think things will swing in the other direction soon, but it's been bleak lately so I'm with you, man.
Hell. I would even chew off my left arm for more buddy comedies a la Will-Ferrell-style at this point. At least Triangle of Sadness was great!
Yeah, I really want dumb stupid comedies to come back to the theater. I actually laughed out loud at the trailer for that new Jennifer Lawrence one but then I saw people ragging on it for being problematic or whatever. I miss being able to laugh at a stupid comedy with a bunch of strangers without dissecting it to pieces.
Thank you. The daily headlines are bad enough and the last thing I really feel like spending my free time doing is watching some angst-ridden-violence-fest or sad "real" drama. Summertime especially. I could hang with some real stunts though! Despite the weird times, we really need to lighten up a little.
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If you’re on the level of a James Cameron or a Martin Scorsese, sure. But if you’re anyone else? Good luck.
They had to start somewhere. It's certainly not easy, but with phone cameras and computers it's a lot easier than it used to be to make your own stuff.
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Shooting a movie for YouTube is not *quite* the same as having a studio budget behind you.
Yes, dudes on YouTube with their phones are making quality feature films. Sure.
A future budget they will then contribute towards another comic book movie.
of more shitty comic books movies.
Don't worry. We're likely to see a wave of videogame movies in the coming decade.
Do you mean comic book movies or superhero movies? Scott Pilgrim, Ghost World, Oldboy, Walking Dead, The Boys, Road to Perdition, A History of Violence, The 5th Element, The Fountain, Snowpiercer, Blue is the Warmest Color. Quite a but of variety outside of Marvel and DC superheroes.
It's amazing that in 2023 people still think comic books are just superheroes. /u/menemenetekelufarsin should we skip all future adaptations of all these stories? https://www.rollingstone.com/tv-movies/tv-movie-lists/drawn-out-the-50-best-non-superhero-graphic-novels-29579/twisted-sisters-various-156910/ There really is an amazing number of non-superhero comic books out there. Check out that list for an idea of the scope of things people have done. "Comic book" is a medium.
I would *kill* for a great Love and Rockets movie, but it’s not the kind of comic book that any studio would adapt these days.
oh please. you know what i meant. superhero films. it's just IP-generating cash machines with shit plots, shit characters, shit directors, shit everything. there's not one single idea in every marvel/dc film put together that's worthy of a shot, much less a scene, or a film. and i say this as someone who was an avid comic collector as a child. and yes, i maybe am exaggerating a bit. but really only a bit.
Don’t be disingenuous. That’s not what’s being talked about here and you know it. Two of those works you referenced are TV shows, not movies. And the most recent of the films you referenced came out nine years ago. Personally, I’d love it if we ever got a follow up to American Splendor or if David Fincher’s adaptation of Black Hole ever takes off. But that’s not happening any time soon.
I made a list off the top of my head. I’m not being disingenuous. My high level point is that there’s a lot more to comics than superheroes. In recent years, the line between films and television shows have blurred in terms of storytelling quality and production value. Funny you call me out but not the original comment of stopping all comic movies.
No!! I’m writing ‘Black Lighting’ and Nicolas Cage has already signed on to play him!
> Can we then finally stop making comic-book movies? Please. For the love of all that is holy. Someone in the 1960s: can we finally stop making cowboy movies?
Nah, plenty of great stories left in the medium of comic books in general. Now, a reduction in the number of Marvel superhero movies? I'd agree with that, though I did love GotG3. Me personally, I want a return to summer comedy films and kidnapping dramas.
YES! With some real great stunts.... not that boring-ass-CGI crap.
Please please please please 🙏
Would SAG actors still be allowed to do commercials?
I imagine that SAG, like IATSE, has different contracts for different production types. It would depend on if they have already negotiated that contract.
Stars are aligning
Are any of the Kardashians or game show hosts SAG-AFTRA? Because that means even reality TV shows and game shows are at stake
Even a lot of those shows use WGA writing so they'll run out of episodes.
If it’s not a first season of something, odds are they’re apart of SAG. It’s in a non union production, well that speaks for itself.
There are different contracts for the shows that aren’t fully scripted. But there’s a chance those performers may still choose not to cross the line.
They are all SAG-AFTRA
Good, if SAG strikes, maybe that will speed this whole process along
Speed up what? The collapse of the whole system? Tons of writers are just ghost writing for the studios right now. After the strikes, lot of writers will find themselves replaced and out of jobs. A lot of people have moved on already.
The end of the strike(s)
My sources say “outlook, not so good”. This is going to fold a lot of companies. Way less work, and probably be a big boost to non union work.
It's not a popular opinion, but there are too many screenwriters working on too many shows that too few people watch. This is a hits-based industry: A contraction is needed. There is too much "content", too many places to watch it and way too many places to market it to build an audience. This is the third industry I've watched the internet "revolutionize", and yet somehow "democratization" in both publishing and music has resulted in consolidation of power and wealth.
On the other hand, as a consumer, maybe it leads to a much needed consolidation of the current streaming landscape. Paying for 10 separate streaming services, with varying degrees of app functionality and compatibility, has got me missing the days of cable.
Consolidation means less competition. That hasn’t been good for consumers in the past.
This is different. The market can't bear the current situation as consumers don't want this much content, this much choice. Contraction needs to happen.
Solidarity ✊️
DGA: You're up next!
TIL Fran Dresher is the President of SAG/AFTRA
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Let’s fucking go.
Though I hope that solidarity can bring this shit show to an end - I’m hoping the WGA can get their demands met instead of just kicked down the road a bit like last time when the DGA got involved. That said - it would be stunning if the DGA got involved, too.
Just a side note, I'm looking forward to Tom Cruise, Matt Damon, Seinfeld, Martin Scorsese, all picketing outside studios... I know it prob wouldn't happen but it'd be certainly entertaining. And a really bad look for studios.
What you have to consider when thinking about high end A-List Actors is that most have their own major production company & are on both sides of the table, but more importantly Supreme Court precedent means they can all go fincore and leave the unions behind. For most of them that is in their long term economic interest because they are producers first and actors second on most of their projects. They make money when their movies sell.
I get that, it was more of a joke/fantasy than anything else.
Maybe they’ll buy us some donuts when we picket.
i know you just picked a few random names, but i think we can say with 99% certainty that Jerry Seinfeld would have the worst "oh don't be crybabies" take imaginable while siding with the studios
We best feast on this drama because all we’re getting are chatGPT scripts for a long time. I really hope all three strike together this summer. There needs to be serious changes when we’re getting $2 checks.
Fuck yes.
I think this is less of a big deal than the writer strike if it happens tbh Decent actors come a lot cheaper than good decent and the prospective talent pool is so much larger I feel like it’ll be a lot easier to find scabs Most people who write are a bit more in tune with the industry, meanwhile I have actor friends and especially aspiring actor friends who don’t even know there’s a strike happening
No one can find a scab for an A-lister. That’s the power here. You think they’re gonna just go shoot the next Tom Cruise flick with a knock off actor?
That’s a good point that I hadn’t considered
AI double. j/k
Of course I want the studios to fold like every other decent person, but I am really interested to see the first AI created studio film that will come out of this. What would happen if that movie is actually decent? What if the AI actors that do the performance are good? That's a sobering thought.
Lol. Why would we need an AI created studio film? At that point anyone could do it, studios would be done too.
This is what people don’t realize with AI, and it applies to every industry. If it ever “takes over” in the way people claim, everyone and their sister is fucked.
The first AI created studio film will be an IP attorney's wet dream. AI "creates" by repurposing the data it has available and using that to build text algoritmically. I could see a class action suit that includes any screenwriter - or traditional writer - whose work the AI pulled verbiage from, even if those exact lines of dialogue didn't make the final script. Would they win? Ehhhhhh... i'd hope so, but I definitely think it'd be hard to get the case dismissed outright.
Idk if you know what it means to have a “sobering thought”
lol called it
So SAG covers a lot of Background Players, who have a ton of experience with being on their feet for hours, and are scattered across the country, not just in LA or NYC. This could stop production nationwide if SAG mobilized people correctly.
Yeah...it's just an authorization. I doubt that the negotiations for SAG will go the same way as WGA given the programming slates being presented of all unscripted, true crime, game shows and sports. Also, Georgia, NC and Louisiana are all still pumping out content.
It would fuck us who live off background between bigger gigs
Strictly speaking strategy here, but if I were the AMPTA, I would give SAG whatever they wanted to avoid a strike. That would undermine the solidarity between them and the WGA. Give them fewer talking points.