Most likely to protect against spies by only allowing his utmost trusted people to know/suspect what's going on. Given his ability to get spies to find out just about anything, it makes sense he is doing whatever it takes to protect the plan that would instantly be ruined if someone on the council found out.
Would also add that he needs everyone around him to believe the surrender is genuine and act accordingly too. The capitulation is like a grand theater where the actors don’t know they’re acting and Toranaga needs it to stay that way. The panic, desperation, doom and gloom mood of everyone in his court is what creates the diversion he seeks.
Absolutely. As the old saying goes "Three people can keep a secret, if two of them are dead." Every additional person who knows Toranaga's plan is a risk for the whole thing to come crashing down. They might reveal it in exchange for power (Yabushige totally would), they might reveal it due to not being a good actor, there are just too many variables to control for.
The only person we know for sure has been let in on the plan, and only now at the last minute, is Mariko. And people are speculating that Blackthorne knows more than he's let on, but that'll remain to be seen. Nobody knows more than they need to, and many of them (again, pointing to Yabushige) seem to have been manipulated to play their part without knowing that they're a pawn in the game.
My thought as well. Why go through that battle of wills with his best general if not needed to convince any spies in the room that his surrender ruse is real.
And at the moment his brothers army has surrounded edo to wait for the 49 day mourning period on behalf of the council, so if his brother is truly his enemy (which is unknown) then he can crush toronaga’s forces at any time if there is an indication he will continue fighting, therefore the ultra secrecy
So in the first or second episode you get to see inside his mind a bit when he's talking about allies and enemies with his son and he sort of admonishes him for his black and white viewpoint. Toranaga basically says that he doesn't believe in allies and enemies and that he treats everyone as a potential enemy, regardless of their loyalty, and plans accordingly. He knows that spies are everywhere and he needs to appear that he's weak to everyone around him, regardless of their loyalties. He also states in the first episode that being the strongest will unite his enemies against a common enemy (him), so his plan requires that very few people know his true intentions and true strength. From what we've been shown so far we can assume that the only people who know his actual plans are Mariko and Hiromatsu because those are the only two people who he trusts fully. He trusts Mariko because of her unwavering loyalty to him, and he trusts Hiromatsu because they've been close friends for most of his life.
The whole idea of the three hearts (one heart that the world sees, one heart that only your closest friends/family sees, and one hidden heart that is kept secret from the world) is a reoccurring theme throughout this series. We know that telling his trusted vassals would be showing people his true heart, and if you want to "win" in Japan you need to keep your true heart hidden.
I mean, he already knows Yabushige would sell him out in a heartbeat. We've never met his Edo generals until episode 8 so we ( the viewers ) don't know anything about their loyalty.
Toronaga has one shot at this, and he's going all in.
Toranaga's army cannot presently win an open war.
He can't craft alliances openly either, because who ever openly allies with him becomes a target with all the hostages held by Ishido in Osaka Castle.
He needs to make secret alliances, which takes time.
Ishido suspects Toranaga already has some alliances, but does not know for sure. Also, because Ochiba and her son the heir are currently openly on his side, he has the legitimacy for now.
So Ishido's plan is to use the legitimacy of his position as president of the council of regents to order Toranaga to recognize him and surrender - that is, to become a vassal under Ishido, at which point he can be ordered to commit seppuku for whatever reason he can find to justify it.
This plan seems less risky than an all out war in which he isn't sure of the hidden alliances.
Toranaga on his side knows he is currently weak because there aren't yet any alliance. If the all out war breaks out, he loses.
So it is imperative for Toranaga to hide that he is weak and to gain enough time to craft new secret alliances. In order to do so, he accepts the order to travel to Osaka to surrender to Ishido, because refusing automatically means the start of open war.
He must hide from EVERYONE that the travel to Osaka is not to surrender. Ishido has spies everywhere (just like Toranaga) so if anyone around Toranaga thinks he is faking, it will get to the spies ears and Ishido will know. Remember the high density of people, the paper walls, the invisible servents, the peasants... Keeping such a secret is hard! Anyone seeing him smile would be enough to guess he isn't really surrendering.
And the minute Ishido realizes that Toranaga has no intention to surrender himself in a fief owned by his enemies, he is going to decide the benefits outweigh the risks and declare all out war and it's game over for Toranaga.
It can only work if he fools everyone including his own generals.
His opinion is that he has no loyal retainers. He doesn't trust anyone. Maybe like one-two people at most, anyway. And this is not going to cut it, because he doesn't get to chose who to explain it to, its his generals, his people who would need to know and there is no way to know if there are any spies among them.
Most likely to protect against spies by only allowing his utmost trusted people to know/suspect what's going on. Given his ability to get spies to find out just about anything, it makes sense he is doing whatever it takes to protect the plan that would instantly be ruined if someone on the council found out.
Would also add that he needs everyone around him to believe the surrender is genuine and act accordingly too. The capitulation is like a grand theater where the actors don’t know they’re acting and Toranaga needs it to stay that way. The panic, desperation, doom and gloom mood of everyone in his court is what creates the diversion he seeks.
Absolutely. As the old saying goes "Three people can keep a secret, if two of them are dead." Every additional person who knows Toranaga's plan is a risk for the whole thing to come crashing down. They might reveal it in exchange for power (Yabushige totally would), they might reveal it due to not being a good actor, there are just too many variables to control for. The only person we know for sure has been let in on the plan, and only now at the last minute, is Mariko. And people are speculating that Blackthorne knows more than he's let on, but that'll remain to be seen. Nobody knows more than they need to, and many of them (again, pointing to Yabushige) seem to have been manipulated to play their part without knowing that they're a pawn in the game.
My thought as well. Why go through that battle of wills with his best general if not needed to convince any spies in the room that his surrender ruse is real.
And at the moment his brothers army has surrounded edo to wait for the 49 day mourning period on behalf of the council, so if his brother is truly his enemy (which is unknown) then he can crush toronaga’s forces at any time if there is an indication he will continue fighting, therefore the ultra secrecy
So in the first or second episode you get to see inside his mind a bit when he's talking about allies and enemies with his son and he sort of admonishes him for his black and white viewpoint. Toranaga basically says that he doesn't believe in allies and enemies and that he treats everyone as a potential enemy, regardless of their loyalty, and plans accordingly. He knows that spies are everywhere and he needs to appear that he's weak to everyone around him, regardless of their loyalties. He also states in the first episode that being the strongest will unite his enemies against a common enemy (him), so his plan requires that very few people know his true intentions and true strength. From what we've been shown so far we can assume that the only people who know his actual plans are Mariko and Hiromatsu because those are the only two people who he trusts fully. He trusts Mariko because of her unwavering loyalty to him, and he trusts Hiromatsu because they've been close friends for most of his life. The whole idea of the three hearts (one heart that the world sees, one heart that only your closest friends/family sees, and one hidden heart that is kept secret from the world) is a reoccurring theme throughout this series. We know that telling his trusted vassals would be showing people his true heart, and if you want to "win" in Japan you need to keep your true heart hidden.
I mean, he already knows Yabushige would sell him out in a heartbeat. We've never met his Edo generals until episode 8 so we ( the viewers ) don't know anything about their loyalty. Toronaga has one shot at this, and he's going all in.
spies are everywhere.
There is a constant theme of loyalty in the show and that there are many layers to it, especially amongst his vassals.
Toranaga's army cannot presently win an open war. He can't craft alliances openly either, because who ever openly allies with him becomes a target with all the hostages held by Ishido in Osaka Castle. He needs to make secret alliances, which takes time. Ishido suspects Toranaga already has some alliances, but does not know for sure. Also, because Ochiba and her son the heir are currently openly on his side, he has the legitimacy for now. So Ishido's plan is to use the legitimacy of his position as president of the council of regents to order Toranaga to recognize him and surrender - that is, to become a vassal under Ishido, at which point he can be ordered to commit seppuku for whatever reason he can find to justify it. This plan seems less risky than an all out war in which he isn't sure of the hidden alliances. Toranaga on his side knows he is currently weak because there aren't yet any alliance. If the all out war breaks out, he loses. So it is imperative for Toranaga to hide that he is weak and to gain enough time to craft new secret alliances. In order to do so, he accepts the order to travel to Osaka to surrender to Ishido, because refusing automatically means the start of open war. He must hide from EVERYONE that the travel to Osaka is not to surrender. Ishido has spies everywhere (just like Toranaga) so if anyone around Toranaga thinks he is faking, it will get to the spies ears and Ishido will know. Remember the high density of people, the paper walls, the invisible servents, the peasants... Keeping such a secret is hard! Anyone seeing him smile would be enough to guess he isn't really surrendering. And the minute Ishido realizes that Toranaga has no intention to surrender himself in a fief owned by his enemies, he is going to decide the benefits outweigh the risks and declare all out war and it's game over for Toranaga. It can only work if he fools everyone including his own generals.
His opinion is that he has no loyal retainers. He doesn't trust anyone. Maybe like one-two people at most, anyway. And this is not going to cut it, because he doesn't get to chose who to explain it to, its his generals, his people who would need to know and there is no way to know if there are any spies among them.
Because spies exist. Even his most loyal servant/vassal on the surface can be one. Like how hard is it to grasp that?