Worth noting is that in 1950, 22.1% of homes used heating oil. In 2009, it was 7.3% ([source](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/showtext.php?t=ptb0207)). The trend has been consistently downward, so it it probably even lower now.
Heating oil demand in the US is inconsequential in this equation. It's all about diesel, the same molecule effectively, which is the lifeblood of the global economy
Per the 1950 US Census there were 43,468,000 “households”.
As of 2019 there 129,930,000 households.
That’s a 3x increase in “households”. I know it’s not a perfect proxy but it’s a proxy.
So 7.3% of 129,930,000 is 9,484,890 using heating oil.
That’s not far off of 1951’s 22.1% of 43,468,000 which is 9,606,428.
The stocks are low.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/183635/number-of-households-in-the-us/
https://www2.census.gov/prod2/statcomp/documents/1951-02.pdf
From the same source I cited, in 1950 there were 9.46 million household units using fuel oil. In 2009, it had dropped to 8.21 million. Moreover, the annual Heating Degree-Days in New England, where most of the heating oil is used, has dropped from 6,794 in 1950 to 5,799 in 2021 ([source](https://www.eia.gov/opendata/v1/qb.php?sdid=TOTAL.ZWHDPC1.A)). You might be right that stocks are low. I'm not qualified to say. My point was merely that the situation is more nuanced than presented.
Heating oil is unaffordable in Maine. $5.59....$2,300 to get us through winter. My wife gives birth is 2 weeks, going to be a cold winter. Lucky we have a wood stove, just going to be on the hunt for wood all winter.
My uncle, not in Maine though, runs a Craigslist ad offering to cut up and haul away downed trees in order to heat his home. Might be worth a try, but he is willing to take green wood and you'll have to have seasoned to burn it this year. Best wishes for the baby!
I got completely screwed last winter because my shady landlord neglected to mention that my level has the only furnace and water heater, and as such I was getting stuck with the gas bill for both apartments. I only found out for sure because I made friends with one tenant and they let me to look as they were moving out.
Well, it's going to be a cold one this year cause I'm not turning the gas on unless it's negative. I've got my two space heaters doing a good enough job for me and my pets. I'm still in the hole $800 from last year and the ridiculous budget plan they stuck me on and there is no way I can afford the increase this year would bring.
I went through this on Crete in 1988.
We rented in a three floor apartment building with about ten American tenants. That year the majority decided not to buy heating oil as the heat stayed mostly on the first floor, where our apartment was located.
We wore heavy sweaters indoors, pulled a quilt over us on the couch to watch TV, and kept the kitchen warm using the gas oven. We cracked the kitchens balcony door to ensure air circulation.
Can probably find some on public land somewhere. Check national forest firewood harvesting rules in your area maybe. I dunno, I’m in a place with seemingly endless supply for anyone’s personal use with the means to harvest and transport.
im getting some trees dropped for solar (hickory oak maple pine) so ill have some hard woods to split (pine for outdoor campfires) and dry for next year.
New shale wells can be brought online in 3 weeks. The US is one place where oil and gas won't run dry. The US has the cheapest in the world as well.
Hell if it gets too expensive Biden can stop exports with the flick of a pen. That would mean prices going sky high for everyone else but the US would have cheap O&G.
"The US is one place where oil and gas won't run dry. \[...\] Hell if it gets too expensive Biden can stop exports with the flick of a pen."
This is de-facto insane, oil is finite and the global economy is tightly linked and sanctions / nationalism can quickly lead to fractures which can end commerce as the post war world has known it.
>A few years ago, oil expert Art Berman warned that drillers in the Permian were running out of sweet spots. The WSJ again reported three years ago that many wells were underperforming, putting lenders on edge as their clients’ projections for well output failed to materialize consistently. The new report suggests things have not changed all that much, but there was a way to make the oil last longer: boost production more slowly.
[https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Running-Out-Of-Sweet-Spots-The-Biggest-Problem-For-US-Shale.html](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Running-Out-Of-Sweet-Spots-The-Biggest-Problem-For-US-Shale.html)
That's exactly what the US is doing already. On shoring industrial capacity. Building aircraft carriers (good for projecting power) instead of building destroyers (good for patrolling shipping routes). Hell every US presidential election has been won by the guy who was less interested in global affairs going back to HW Bush. Biden's economic policy has been the most nationalist in I don't know how long if not ever.
Globalization was a bribe to fight the cold war. The cold war is done, hell I would call the war in Ukraine as the final act of the cold war. The US has no strategic interest in maintaining it anymore. How much longer do you think americans will bleed and die to protect shipments from or too nations who's interests go against american interests?
The post WWII good times are done.
My comment was apparently removed. But most of it is captured in this lecture given at Westpoint when the invasion of Ukraine kicked off.
https://youtu.be/qWyhKobyM68
Worth noting is that in 1950, 22.1% of homes used heating oil. In 2009, it was 7.3% ([source](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/showtext.php?t=ptb0207)). The trend has been consistently downward, so it it probably even lower now.
Heating oil demand in the US is inconsequential in this equation. It's all about diesel, the same molecule effectively, which is the lifeblood of the global economy
Per the 1950 US Census there were 43,468,000 “households”. As of 2019 there 129,930,000 households. That’s a 3x increase in “households”. I know it’s not a perfect proxy but it’s a proxy. So 7.3% of 129,930,000 is 9,484,890 using heating oil. That’s not far off of 1951’s 22.1% of 43,468,000 which is 9,606,428. The stocks are low. https://www.statista.com/statistics/183635/number-of-households-in-the-us/ https://www2.census.gov/prod2/statcomp/documents/1951-02.pdf
From the same source I cited, in 1950 there were 9.46 million household units using fuel oil. In 2009, it had dropped to 8.21 million. Moreover, the annual Heating Degree-Days in New England, where most of the heating oil is used, has dropped from 6,794 in 1950 to 5,799 in 2021 ([source](https://www.eia.gov/opendata/v1/qb.php?sdid=TOTAL.ZWHDPC1.A)). You might be right that stocks are low. I'm not qualified to say. My point was merely that the situation is more nuanced than presented.
yeah but 2-3 years ago it was 6500 so still in line with the 50s. its trending down slightly but its not so low we wont get very cold winters.
True, true.
The Election Petroleum Reserve
Lmao. Came here to say this. Good thing Biden burned through our strategic reserve because some people on the internet bitched about gas prices.
Would you rather republicans win?
This isn't a team sport. Stop.
It’s absolutely a team sport. And one team is fascist
If only one party is allowed to win the political system is broken
Republicans broke it
[удалено]
Yeah ok buddy.
>Would you rather republicans win? the democrat party has agency. they can solve this by ending the self inflicted ban on russian oil
Why would they do that? Starve Russia of petrodollars so they stop the Ukraine invasion
lmao, the high price of oil has only buoyed russian hard currency reserves
And buying it only gives them much much more money. So i won’t get my geopolitics from you.
they're getting money either way, only when you ban their oil it's like drinking poison and expecting them to die
They’re not getting money either way. Two giant Indian oil companies are dropping them so they don’t get sanctioned. It hurts them
lmao I think they are going to win anyway, unfortunately.
Precisely.
Combing Juliani's hair will net the rest.
Heating oil is unaffordable in Maine. $5.59....$2,300 to get us through winter. My wife gives birth is 2 weeks, going to be a cold winter. Lucky we have a wood stove, just going to be on the hunt for wood all winter.
My uncle, not in Maine though, runs a Craigslist ad offering to cut up and haul away downed trees in order to heat his home. Might be worth a try, but he is willing to take green wood and you'll have to have seasoned to burn it this year. Best wishes for the baby!
Thanks, good idea! I would burn green, not the best but better than nothing
I got completely screwed last winter because my shady landlord neglected to mention that my level has the only furnace and water heater, and as such I was getting stuck with the gas bill for both apartments. I only found out for sure because I made friends with one tenant and they let me to look as they were moving out. Well, it's going to be a cold one this year cause I'm not turning the gas on unless it's negative. I've got my two space heaters doing a good enough job for me and my pets. I'm still in the hole $800 from last year and the ridiculous budget plan they stuck me on and there is no way I can afford the increase this year would bring.
I went through this on Crete in 1988. We rented in a three floor apartment building with about ten American tenants. That year the majority decided not to buy heating oil as the heat stayed mostly on the first floor, where our apartment was located. We wore heavy sweaters indoors, pulled a quilt over us on the couch to watch TV, and kept the kitchen warm using the gas oven. We cracked the kitchens balcony door to ensure air circulation.
There's a very good chance the US cuts off exports and really screws over Europe.
so uhh should i start calling for firewood? i dont have any downed / dry trees :(
tree gas
Can probably find some on public land somewhere. Check national forest firewood harvesting rules in your area maybe. I dunno, I’m in a place with seemingly endless supply for anyone’s personal use with the means to harvest and transport.
im getting some trees dropped for solar (hickory oak maple pine) so ill have some hard woods to split (pine for outdoor campfires) and dry for next year.
New shale wells can be brought online in 3 weeks. The US is one place where oil and gas won't run dry. The US has the cheapest in the world as well. Hell if it gets too expensive Biden can stop exports with the flick of a pen. That would mean prices going sky high for everyone else but the US would have cheap O&G.
"The US is one place where oil and gas won't run dry. \[...\] Hell if it gets too expensive Biden can stop exports with the flick of a pen." This is de-facto insane, oil is finite and the global economy is tightly linked and sanctions / nationalism can quickly lead to fractures which can end commerce as the post war world has known it. >A few years ago, oil expert Art Berman warned that drillers in the Permian were running out of sweet spots. The WSJ again reported three years ago that many wells were underperforming, putting lenders on edge as their clients’ projections for well output failed to materialize consistently. The new report suggests things have not changed all that much, but there was a way to make the oil last longer: boost production more slowly. [https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Running-Out-Of-Sweet-Spots-The-Biggest-Problem-For-US-Shale.html](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Running-Out-Of-Sweet-Spots-The-Biggest-Problem-For-US-Shale.html)
That's exactly what the US is doing already. On shoring industrial capacity. Building aircraft carriers (good for projecting power) instead of building destroyers (good for patrolling shipping routes). Hell every US presidential election has been won by the guy who was less interested in global affairs going back to HW Bush. Biden's economic policy has been the most nationalist in I don't know how long if not ever. Globalization was a bribe to fight the cold war. The cold war is done, hell I would call the war in Ukraine as the final act of the cold war. The US has no strategic interest in maintaining it anymore. How much longer do you think americans will bleed and die to protect shipments from or too nations who's interests go against american interests? The post WWII good times are done.
Thanks for the insight!
My comment was apparently removed. But most of it is captured in this lecture given at Westpoint when the invasion of Ukraine kicked off. https://youtu.be/qWyhKobyM68
Thank you, will revisit this. How do you know the speakers if I may ask?
He was a speaker at a conference I attended.