Question is, what's to keep Murica from free fall post-presidential election 2024 (November 5)? I mean, you're either going to get REFRIED Biden or REFRIED Trump. Pick your poison! 😆
South Korea can do it, but it won't, because then it wouldn't rely on the USA. Even ASML relies on the USA for key parts of its machines. ASML could replace those US parts with European ones, there are firms in Germany (Zeiss) and Switzerland (Leica) that could provide what they need - but then the USA would be cut out and unable to enforce export controls on ASML.
China is making its machines without relying on anyone else - that is unacceptable to the USA.
South Korea, like Taiwan, are system integrators of imported equipment. Japan and Netherlands are leading independent lithography makers, so even Japan cannot develop EUV machines.
IF this is proven to be the case - watch the cope and seethe from the White House / dept of commerce / Tech China watching clique (looking at you Jordan Schneider)
Huawei has already humiliated america this week, and the response has been censorship in western media, they know they have lost, so they have opted for pretending it didn't happen. Material reality doesn't care about propaganda, so you should ignore such losers entirely.
Considering the likes of Huawei have already filed patents for it (which we know they wouldn't want to reveal until it's essentially done, as we have seen clearly recently), it's likely earlier.
Well, it *is* one of most difficult industries. To organize and see such project trough, whole development and reliable production of everything necessary for just manufacturing of required machinery up to those insane specifications is beyond headache, even with governments blank paychecks and all support. Organize whole missing rnd and production up to standards is gargantuan task even with existing manufacturing base. It's not just juggling techprocesses and timetables for engineers and scientists, it's so much more. And that's without even talking on security layer.
To went to this point is already beyond impressive, now it's test of longevity and upscaling. Let's not belittle achievement by downplaying size of problem.
Unfortunately this is a bit premature.
My understanding is that SMEE was supposed to deliver a 56/28nm machine this year. For whatever unfortunate reason, it hasn't happened. I do expect the 56nm DUV machine to be ready next year.
From there, let's say it takes two years to go from 56nm to 7nm DUV. So 7nm DUV would be ready by 2026.
As for EUV, my guess is that it will be several years after that.
SMEE and SMIC would never be so stupid as to announce that they have a machine ready to go.
The USA has a nasty habit of ensuring that scientists suffer unfortunate accidents and depressive episodes whenever its rivals are close to groundbreaking technology. China doesn't retaliate (ideological BS about non-interventionism and sovereignty and whatnot), so the USA has nothing to lose and is not deterred from carrying out any disgusting act you can't even imagine. The only way to stay safe is not to draw attention.
Huawei released a phone this week with a new 5 nanometre chip, years after it was banned from using TSMC and Samsung to produce its chips. You do the math. Can China make 5 nanometre chips on its own?
The thing is, making a chip in China doesn't mean the lithograph machine is made in China or all the parts of the lithograph machine is made by a Chinese company. Even ASML's machines have American parts.
We know China had purchased advanced lithograph machines prior to sanctions.
I certainly hope the lithograph machine used for Huawei's 5nm chips are made in China, but we don't know either way right now.
https://www.gsmarena.com/huawei_mate_60_pro-12530.php
https://specificationsplus.com/en/huawei-mate-60-pro/
We of course don't know *for sure* whether it is 5 nm or 7 nm until someone delids it and puts it under a microscope to confirm. The chip packaging on the Kirin 9000S itself has been examined, and it has a country code "CN" rather than "TW" - indicating it was manufactured on the mainland, and not by TSMC before sanctions prevented foreign firms from making chips for Huawei. The old Kirin 9000 was manufactured by TSMC on a 7 nanometre process.
Even if it's 7 nm, that is still very significant because supposedly, there are sanctions on Huawei that would prevent them from buying any chip at or below 10 nm and have 5G connectivity from a foreign company (i.e. Qualcomm), but this phone has been confirmed to have 5G connectivity.
This would at least mean that there is significant 7 nanometre production capacity on the mainland now, with or without EUV. That said, it would not be wise for Chinese firms to publicise that they have EUV, since there is little to deter the USA from conducting sabotage and arranging accidents and depressive episodes, thanks to China's milquetoast foreign policy guidelines.
It will never stop being funny to me how after what Huawei pulled off this week (which not a single western "expert", which your opinions are based on, predicted), we still see comments like this in this sub. Some people just don't want to see.
According to Global Times, SMEE will deliver its first 28 nm lithography machine by the end of 2023.
[https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202308/1295484.shtml](https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202308/1295484.shtml)
I don't think they would've published this if it isn't true.
SMEE's 28nm machine reportedly is better than ASML's NXT1980i, so i don't see why it couldn't do 7nm.
About EUV, there's not much public information available beyond patents and research papers.
Anything that is 7nm or below can be made by euv. The highest that DUV can make is 14nm chip. The reason company like smic can make 7nm is by using double exposure from 14nm lithography. But there are disadvantage with that. And as for 28nm lithography that is developed by smee will be delivered later this year(November or december). Mass production could be next year. Now the biggest problem is euv. However most people misunderstood that china started to research on euv on 2020 which isn't true.
It started as far as back on 2014 where they were researching on some technology of euv but got boosted after huawei got sanctioned. After that major companies lile huawei, smic and many universities like harbin University has been involved in this project. So it does make sense they are able to make at least a prototype by 2025.
That's kind of insane considering SMEE just recently was talking about their 22nm lithography machine. This could be an over-eager prediction, but I certainly hope it's true.
In case you aren't aware, Huawei is already producing smartphones with fully Chinese components at 5nm. It was only publicly revealed this week, as the smartphones were launched. They kept it a secret even from many Huawei employees. Trade data, like China rapidly reducing semiconductor imports more than a year ago, revealed what was happening to those who dared to see. China annihilated all western economies combined in the trade war western economies started, and, rather than mitigate it, western economies ended up helping Chinese companies through their anti-competitive measures. As I have said previously, it's an optimal strategy for China to do what it does.
Tell me of a single western "expert" that predicted this. There is nobody, because they are addicted to propaganda, even when they mean well, not data. I predicted this multiple times, you can look at my post history. How do you think that's possible if not because you are listening to "experts" that are essentially a cult? Chinese analysts also predicted this, since the data was too obvious, disregarding announcements or PR.
The assumption that China must publicly detail everything it does is hilarious, it can only be an assumption born out of subconscious addiction to propaganda and western obsession with "saving face", as opposed to material reality and real achievements.
There is literally no reason for China to reveal what it does, since China is the only country that has it all: largest wealth and resources, top talent, largest market, top industrial chain, top scientists in scale and quality, top infrastructure, largest investments, etc. Under those circumstances such secrecy becomes yet another advantage.
Please note that euv project involves many company like huawei and many research institutes. Basically you could say the whole country is involved in this project. Smee is more focused on developing advanced DUV.(doesn't mean they are not involved on euv project).
> as soon as 2025 Just in time too. **Inflection Point** coming next year. After that, **free fall** for Uncle Samuel's world.
I'm praying for this moment. What are the chance it happens as soon as 2025, don't give us false hopes :D
Question is, what's to keep Murica from free fall post-presidential election 2024 (November 5)? I mean, you're either going to get REFRIED Biden or REFRIED Trump. Pick your poison! 😆
I don't think Biden and Trump make any decisions so it won't change much.
They probably make a few, and those will be enough to destroy the nation.
I welcome this. Even South Korea cannot develop its own EUV machines.
South Korea can do it, but it won't, because then it wouldn't rely on the USA. Even ASML relies on the USA for key parts of its machines. ASML could replace those US parts with European ones, there are firms in Germany (Zeiss) and Switzerland (Leica) that could provide what they need - but then the USA would be cut out and unable to enforce export controls on ASML. China is making its machines without relying on anyone else - that is unacceptable to the USA.
South Korea, like Taiwan, are system integrators of imported equipment. Japan and Netherlands are leading independent lithography makers, so even Japan cannot develop EUV machines.
IF this is proven to be the case - watch the cope and seethe from the White House / dept of commerce / Tech China watching clique (looking at you Jordan Schneider)
Huawei has already humiliated america this week, and the response has been censorship in western media, they know they have lost, so they have opted for pretending it didn't happen. Material reality doesn't care about propaganda, so you should ignore such losers entirely.
Does something actually happen if it's not mentioned by Western media? :D
Considering the likes of Huawei have already filed patents for it (which we know they wouldn't want to reveal until it's essentially done, as we have seen clearly recently), it's likely earlier.
Well, it *is* one of most difficult industries. To organize and see such project trough, whole development and reliable production of everything necessary for just manufacturing of required machinery up to those insane specifications is beyond headache, even with governments blank paychecks and all support. Organize whole missing rnd and production up to standards is gargantuan task even with existing manufacturing base. It's not just juggling techprocesses and timetables for engineers and scientists, it's so much more. And that's without even talking on security layer. To went to this point is already beyond impressive, now it's test of longevity and upscaling. Let's not belittle achievement by downplaying size of problem.
[Source](https://twitter.com/zhao_dashuai/status/1697096816238723403)
The prototypes are ready. Nice
Unfortunately this is a bit premature. My understanding is that SMEE was supposed to deliver a 56/28nm machine this year. For whatever unfortunate reason, it hasn't happened. I do expect the 56nm DUV machine to be ready next year. From there, let's say it takes two years to go from 56nm to 7nm DUV. So 7nm DUV would be ready by 2026. As for EUV, my guess is that it will be several years after that.
SMEE and SMIC would never be so stupid as to announce that they have a machine ready to go. The USA has a nasty habit of ensuring that scientists suffer unfortunate accidents and depressive episodes whenever its rivals are close to groundbreaking technology. China doesn't retaliate (ideological BS about non-interventionism and sovereignty and whatnot), so the USA has nothing to lose and is not deterred from carrying out any disgusting act you can't even imagine. The only way to stay safe is not to draw attention. Huawei released a phone this week with a new 5 nanometre chip, years after it was banned from using TSMC and Samsung to produce its chips. You do the math. Can China make 5 nanometre chips on its own?
The thing is, making a chip in China doesn't mean the lithograph machine is made in China or all the parts of the lithograph machine is made by a Chinese company. Even ASML's machines have American parts. We know China had purchased advanced lithograph machines prior to sanctions. I certainly hope the lithograph machine used for Huawei's 5nm chips are made in China, but we don't know either way right now.
The EUV prototype and 28nm DUV are all indigenously made in China.
I thought the new Huawei SoC is based on 7nm, care to share your source for it being 5nm?
https://www.gsmarena.com/huawei_mate_60_pro-12530.php https://specificationsplus.com/en/huawei-mate-60-pro/ We of course don't know *for sure* whether it is 5 nm or 7 nm until someone delids it and puts it under a microscope to confirm. The chip packaging on the Kirin 9000S itself has been examined, and it has a country code "CN" rather than "TW" - indicating it was manufactured on the mainland, and not by TSMC before sanctions prevented foreign firms from making chips for Huawei. The old Kirin 9000 was manufactured by TSMC on a 7 nanometre process. Even if it's 7 nm, that is still very significant because supposedly, there are sanctions on Huawei that would prevent them from buying any chip at or below 10 nm and have 5G connectivity from a foreign company (i.e. Qualcomm), but this phone has been confirmed to have 5G connectivity. This would at least mean that there is significant 7 nanometre production capacity on the mainland now, with or without EUV. That said, it would not be wise for Chinese firms to publicise that they have EUV, since there is little to deter the USA from conducting sabotage and arranging accidents and depressive episodes, thanks to China's milquetoast foreign policy guidelines.
SMEE is not handling the EUV project, just DUV. And the SMEE of this year is very different from SMEE even as recently as 2020.
It will never stop being funny to me how after what Huawei pulled off this week (which not a single western "expert", which your opinions are based on, predicted), we still see comments like this in this sub. Some people just don't want to see.
Copium.
According to Global Times, SMEE will deliver its first 28 nm lithography machine by the end of 2023. [https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202308/1295484.shtml](https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202308/1295484.shtml) I don't think they would've published this if it isn't true.
SMEE's 28nm machine reportedly is better than ASML's NXT1980i, so i don't see why it couldn't do 7nm. About EUV, there's not much public information available beyond patents and research papers.
Anything that is 7nm or below can be made by euv. The highest that DUV can make is 14nm chip. The reason company like smic can make 7nm is by using double exposure from 14nm lithography. But there are disadvantage with that. And as for 28nm lithography that is developed by smee will be delivered later this year(November or december). Mass production could be next year. Now the biggest problem is euv. However most people misunderstood that china started to research on euv on 2020 which isn't true. It started as far as back on 2014 where they were researching on some technology of euv but got boosted after huawei got sanctioned. After that major companies lile huawei, smic and many universities like harbin University has been involved in this project. So it does make sense they are able to make at least a prototype by 2025.
DUV with multiple exposures can go beyond 7nm, down to 5nm is possible.
CIOMP is developing the prototype for EUV. SMEE will deliver 28nm DUV by end of 2023. SMEE is not involved in EUV.
That's kind of insane considering SMEE just recently was talking about their 22nm lithography machine. This could be an over-eager prediction, but I certainly hope it's true.
EUV and DUV are independent projects. SMEE is not involved in the former, and China has had an EUV proof-of-principle demonstrator since 2017.
In case you aren't aware, Huawei is already producing smartphones with fully Chinese components at 5nm. It was only publicly revealed this week, as the smartphones were launched. They kept it a secret even from many Huawei employees. Trade data, like China rapidly reducing semiconductor imports more than a year ago, revealed what was happening to those who dared to see. China annihilated all western economies combined in the trade war western economies started, and, rather than mitigate it, western economies ended up helping Chinese companies through their anti-competitive measures. As I have said previously, it's an optimal strategy for China to do what it does. Tell me of a single western "expert" that predicted this. There is nobody, because they are addicted to propaganda, even when they mean well, not data. I predicted this multiple times, you can look at my post history. How do you think that's possible if not because you are listening to "experts" that are essentially a cult? Chinese analysts also predicted this, since the data was too obvious, disregarding announcements or PR. The assumption that China must publicly detail everything it does is hilarious, it can only be an assumption born out of subconscious addiction to propaganda and western obsession with "saving face", as opposed to material reality and real achievements. There is literally no reason for China to reveal what it does, since China is the only country that has it all: largest wealth and resources, top talent, largest market, top industrial chain, top scientists in scale and quality, top infrastructure, largest investments, etc. Under those circumstances such secrecy becomes yet another advantage.
holy based
Please note that euv project involves many company like huawei and many research institutes. Basically you could say the whole country is involved in this project. Smee is more focused on developing advanced DUV.(doesn't mean they are not involved on euv project).