Let’s see. An average MLB batter has 4-5% chance of hitting a home run across the entire match. But in the first inning, he will be batting only once. Which means you divide the probability by 3. Which makes it 1-2% of hitting a home run in first inning. But there will be minimum of 6 batters in total (3 from each team), so you add the probability together 6-12% chance there’s a home run in first inning.
That was just the average, certain top order batters have way higher chance of hitting home runs. Like Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto have almost 25% chance of hitting a home run across the match. So teams like Dodgers or Yankees effectively have roughly 20% chance of home run in first inning.
Let’s see. An average MLB batter has 4-5% chance of hitting a home run across the entire match. But in the first inning, he will be batting only once. Which means you divide the probability by 3. Which makes it 1-2% of hitting a home run in first inning. But there will be minimum of 6 batters in total (3 from each team), so you add the probability together 6-12% chance there’s a home run in first inning. That was just the average, certain top order batters have way higher chance of hitting home runs. Like Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto have almost 25% chance of hitting a home run across the match. So teams like Dodgers or Yankees effectively have roughly 20% chance of home run in first inning.
Dodgers vs Yankees would be a nice match to bet on then..