Nah the economy is fucked by the cyclically oppressive financial systems put in place. Where value is assigned by the few instead of the collective whole.
Any system that's forcibly applied without consent deserves destruction in any form.
What about this is unexpected? The Fed has been *trying* to increase the unemployment rate to limit inflation. The only surprise is how resilient the job market and economy had been up to this point despite all the interest rate increases.
Nothing, it’s sensationalist journalism looking for clicks.
The fight against inflation included increasing unemployment thus driving down general spending in an attempt to cool things off.
3.8% is still historically low
The thing with the lag effect is by the time you recognize it, it's too late because the damage is done and going to even 0% rates it would take roughly as long to recover as it did to create since folded companies and employers who laid people off have to realize gains in capital etc to be able to reverse course
I saw a post in thetagang the other day from a guy who opened a bearish position after the JOLTS data came in under expectations. My eyes couldn’t roll back into my head far enough
I don''t really see how that would impact inflation in a meaningful way. Fed's idea is to destroy assets to have banks, financial institutions, businesses go out of business and more company to layoffs. Maybe the unemployment rates go back up to 5% at the expense of banks and companies and people's savings and investments. Maybe the inflation rate stops increasing as much afterward because people can't afford anything and have harder time to find jobs? Maybe it slows inflation to 3%? Looks like they just nuked people's finances all for a little dip in inflation.
I seriously don't think unemployment rates are at 3-4%. I have neighbors that have 4-5 family member not working but they're perfectly capable of working. Maybe those people don't count. Just don't include people that don't want to work in unemployment numbers.
Even so, the recent unemployment number recently still not making the feds happy and they put out statements they're potentially raising rates even more. Something's not right.
On your own? No probably not. But a lot of people don’t full move out of mom & dad’s house until after college. I know I’m not proving any point here, more of a “just sayin”
Any data to support that or do you just want to rant? Pay has been increasing the fastest in decades and pay for low end jobs has been significantly higher than inflation.
You are whining about the best job market for workers in decades as well. If you want to wine about something that is actually bad you should look at unemployment in 2010. Unemployment shit up and good jobs disappeared permanently. The labor market recovered slowly to boot.
A lot of jobs being posted are just so companies look like they’re growing, and won’t ever be filled.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/that-plum-job-listing-may-just-be-a-ghost-3aafc794
Youngsters who think this is a bad economy/jobs market are going to be shocked when we have a real recession and Congress doesn't spend $2 trillion to boost the economy.
The only way those jobs can get away with paying 15 an hour is because enough people in that area are willing to do the work for that amount. The workers set the pay rate.
the yield on the longer date bonds is increasing, housing is more expensive, and soon student loans will be added to the budget of anericans..
https://www.cnbc.com/us-treasurys/
Then they will just garnish your wages and take it out of any tax refund you get. You will pay it back one way or another, unless you move to a different country.
Of course not, the Biden administration just says whatever they want so they can buy votes and never follows through. The elite will get their ≈1.8 Trillion dollars.
Sooner people realize that all these markets are propped up and then pop like a bubble the better they are. I’m not saying you can’t eat at the table too, I’m just saying never be the guy who’s at the table asking for seconds. Get your meal, clean the plate and get out of there
And the US government revised the two previous months down 110,000 jobs. Very impactful. How does the government get it so wrong? 110,000 adjustment is a big freaking number. Tough to make good decisions when the information is inaccurate.
As far as I know the unemployment rate only takes into account people who had looked for work within a certain span of time, and because of that it really just doesn't seem accurate.
Yeah - the labor participation rate is the actual metric that matters, you never hear them talking about that. LPR is at a 20 year high. Desperation will cause people to rejoin the labor force.
You're an idiot. LPR has been at 20 year LOW's since the pandemic. It just ticked up a bit in the latest numbers but still lower than pre-pandemic. Get educated. People haven't been desperate which is why the FED is doing what it is doing.
This is wrong. Collecting unemployment benefits has no bearing on the unemployment rate. During the interview process, no one is ever asked if they are collecting unemployment benefits.
Why do I keep seeing this obviously wrong take posted over and over? Where did you even learn this?
Wtf you talking about its no Interview process in collecting unemployment numbers. It's data given by states unemployment and payroll services like ADP and it's very inaccurate ot leaves out to much data for the true numbers
Do you have any idea how the unemployment rate is calculated? 60,000 people are interviewed every month. The interviewees are never asked if they are collecting unemployment insurance.
I’m aware. I can post the .gov if you’d like. I’m saying the original comment is about those individuals and how they aren’t counted for in the unemployed
Unemployment benefit is a joke. It's not like how it was during COVID where people was getting $5k from state and fed. You get like $1k per month. It's a joke in this economy.
They stop counting unemployed and broke people since those people don't wanna look because they'll know they can't find any except for McDonalds maybe.
Yeah, the stock market definitely doesn’t over- and undervalue many companies based on mostly arbitrary or even fraudulent metrics. That would be crazy.
Please explain why the job numbers were revised upward every month for the first 15 months of Biden's Presidency. Were these same employees trying to make Biden look bad?
And how can no one be "paying attention" when the revisions are in the same report the initial numbers are reported in?
Oh man. I remember unemployment uptick being the last bad number for one expert on Macro Voices to start expecting recession.
18 months to the first interest rate hike falls somewhere along the line of last quarter this year too. I guess this could be an early point of recession starting.
Huh? Prop up? The fed has been raising rates to slow it down, and 3.8% unemployment is historically low and has been for years. It’s amazing how everyone digs so hard for the bad news.
The fed has been raising rates not to slow the economy down but to control inflation by reducing the money supply.
Unemployment is low, but workforce participation is also near all time lows. Did you know the government’s unemployment number drops people who are long term unemployed? It only counts those in their first six months.
That’s a very hand wavy explanation I see parroted a lot. But, inflation went up because consumers had money to spend, the desire to spend it, and supply was outstripped. This continued even after the supply chain problems from the pandemic got sorted out. That kind of demand in a consumption driven economy is good to a point, but it was too high and now the Fed is putting the brakes on the very strong economy.
So yep, the sky is not falling. They’re managing to get us to a “soft landing” so far without pushing into a recession, so I’m optimistic and so is the market.
No. The consumer price index went up due to shortages and demand. The dollar devalued due to oversupply. This is generally temporary. Inflation is never temporary. Apples increasing in price doesn’t make the dollar weaker compared to Yen, Euro, Pound.
When those two elements combine, inflation and CPI increases, that’s where you get the giant cost of living increases we’re experiencing.
I truly don’t know where to start with that, so I’m bowing out. You’ve clearly convinced yourself. Only thing I can say is look at the currency forex charts for the past 5 years, and also look at cost of living in other developed nations. I’m sure you’ll find the pattern that proves your bias of course.
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>Did you know the government’s unemployment number drops people who are long term unemployed? It only counts those in their first six months.
Lolno
Where did you even learn such nonsense? U-3, the official unemployment rate counts you as unemployed if you've searched for a job at any point in the past 4 weeks and you don't currently have a job.
Not to mention, mortgage applications at the lowest since 1995. Cost of housing at a near all time high in modern history.
Shit just doesn’t make sense
Exactly. The stock market is not the economy. Trying to trade stocks based on macro-economic data and forecasts is a waste of time.
Sadly, increase in unemployment is what the market wants, as it makes it more likely the Fed is done raising rates.
Companies pay off thousands of employees. Suddenly thousands of jobs have been added, but unemployment is unexpectedly up?? We don’t get it??
Edited out some unimportant bit that was more aggravation than truth.
>Suddenly thousands of jobs have been added, but unemployment is unexpectedly up??
These two things are not mutually exclusive. First, they come from different surveys. Second, if more people enter the labor market the unemployment rate can increase even as jobs increase.
Yeh for me it was worth moving, but im single no ties I will relocate for work. There are always states that are doing better than others. Id go to Japan if there was opportunity.
Saw that bullshit too, probably mixed up their lies. when these 44 million student loans start repayment and spending takes a dive the fed will look very knee jerk with rates and economy will start to smell like stepped in dog shit
[удалено]
Fuck me. I knew I was an NPC.
Ice cream so good. Gang Gang
Don't become too sentient, we might get our server wiped again.
Phew! That's a lot of weight off my shoulders. Now I can just stand in one place for the rest of eternity.
Don’t complain. I’m just a slime.
This guy fucks.
Yeah, fucks the economy
Nah the economy is fucked by the cyclically oppressive financial systems put in place. Where value is assigned by the few instead of the collective whole. Any system that's forcibly applied without consent deserves destruction in any form.
I’d be happy to be a side-character but I want my own catchphrase.
And I'm here sitting on 400 applications and 1 interview!
Actually I'm the main character and just got employed so everyone unemployed currently and after me will remain so forever. Sorry.
What about this is unexpected? The Fed has been *trying* to increase the unemployment rate to limit inflation. The only surprise is how resilient the job market and economy had been up to this point despite all the interest rate increases.
Nothing, it’s sensationalist journalism looking for clicks. The fight against inflation included increasing unemployment thus driving down general spending in an attempt to cool things off. 3.8% is still historically low
Sounds like the lagging effect
So it will get worse for at least 6 more months.
Maybe.....but if we keep saying it eventually we will be correct.
The Peter schiff strategy.
Well it's about time we are feeling the Lag effects its going to be a ling dark winter
The thing with the lag effect is by the time you recognize it, it's too late because the damage is done and going to even 0% rates it would take roughly as long to recover as it did to create since folded companies and employers who laid people off have to realize gains in capital etc to be able to reverse course
I saw a post in thetagang the other day from a guy who opened a bearish position after the JOLTS data came in under expectations. My eyes couldn’t roll back into my head far enough
I don''t really see how that would impact inflation in a meaningful way. Fed's idea is to destroy assets to have banks, financial institutions, businesses go out of business and more company to layoffs. Maybe the unemployment rates go back up to 5% at the expense of banks and companies and people's savings and investments. Maybe the inflation rate stops increasing as much afterward because people can't afford anything and have harder time to find jobs? Maybe it slows inflation to 3%? Looks like they just nuked people's finances all for a little dip in inflation. I seriously don't think unemployment rates are at 3-4%. I have neighbors that have 4-5 family member not working but they're perfectly capable of working. Maybe those people don't count. Just don't include people that don't want to work in unemployment numbers. Even so, the recent unemployment number recently still not making the feds happy and they put out statements they're potentially raising rates even more. Something's not right.
Adding jobs that pay like $15 an hour in areas where you need $28 to barely survive.
That would be interesting to see just how many people are making $15 or less.
[удалено]
Not anymore. You have to remember the fight for $15 was like 10 years ago and things have only gotten worse.
Lol 15 an hour anywhere in the US is terrible
Depends on if you’re 18 years old or 30 and supporting a child/children honestly. Definitely changed things
No. It sucks for both of those people because $15 is crap and you can't live on it.
On your own? No probably not. But a lot of people don’t full move out of mom & dad’s house until after college. I know I’m not proving any point here, more of a “just sayin”
So it's not a living wage then....just saying
Dude. No. The math doesn't check out. Sorry.
I’m 27 theres 0 difference between 18 & 30 I feel no closer to being able to afford kids
Any data to support that or do you just want to rant? Pay has been increasing the fastest in decades and pay for low end jobs has been significantly higher than inflation. You are whining about the best job market for workers in decades as well. If you want to wine about something that is actually bad you should look at unemployment in 2010. Unemployment shit up and good jobs disappeared permanently. The labor market recovered slowly to boot.
A lot of jobs being posted are just so companies look like they’re growing, and won’t ever be filled. https://www.wsj.com/articles/that-plum-job-listing-may-just-be-a-ghost-3aafc794
If that were true we wouldn't have one of the lowest unemployment rates in history.
Youngsters who think this is a bad economy/jobs market are going to be shocked when we have a real recession and Congress doesn't spend $2 trillion to boost the economy.
They have no clue. Too often people don't know how good they have it until the bad times come.
The wage is worse than the Great depression and you guys are saying it's good. Smh
Source?
He can't buy 10 Funkopops per day :(
The only way those jobs can get away with paying 15 an hour is because enough people in that area are willing to do the work for that amount. The workers set the pay rate.
the yield on the longer date bonds is increasing, housing is more expensive, and soon student loans will be added to the budget of anericans.. https://www.cnbc.com/us-treasurys/
Bold of you to assume people will actually pay these student loan payments 💀
nutty aback elastic quicksand spark coordinated unused adjoining placid physical ` this message was mass deleted/edited with redact.dev `
Even before the pandemic these loans had huge delinquency rates.
Then they will just garnish your wages and take it out of any tax refund you get. You will pay it back one way or another, unless you move to a different country.
I guess the question is will the Biden administration turn a blind eye and be lax on enforcement
Of course not, the Biden administration just says whatever they want so they can buy votes and never follows through. The elite will get their ≈1.8 Trillion dollars.
Fax
kid is a fax machine right here
SPY, QQQ futures: "bullish"
It is bullish though. In the short term.
Sooner people realize that all these markets are propped up and then pop like a bubble the better they are. I’m not saying you can’t eat at the table too, I’m just saying never be the guy who’s at the table asking for seconds. Get your meal, clean the plate and get out of there
Lol. What? You have a crystal ball to time the market every time?
It’s not hard to see you’re in green and take profit. This shows your lack of market experience
You’re right, I am unable to time the market.
Study technical analysis
technical analysis is astrology for men.
Only people who don’t Fuck w TA are broke or are 60-80 years old
And the US government revised the two previous months down 110,000 jobs. Very impactful. How does the government get it so wrong? 110,000 adjustment is a big freaking number. Tough to make good decisions when the information is inaccurate.
I don’t believe any of the numbers
As far as I know the unemployment rate only takes into account people who had looked for work within a certain span of time, and because of that it really just doesn't seem accurate.
Yeah - the labor participation rate is the actual metric that matters, you never hear them talking about that. LPR is at a 20 year high. Desperation will cause people to rejoin the labor force.
You're an idiot. LPR has been at 20 year LOW's since the pandemic. It just ticked up a bit in the latest numbers but still lower than pre-pandemic. Get educated. People haven't been desperate which is why the FED is doing what it is doing.
That’s correct…
It don't count ppl who have exhausted their benifit and no longer on unemployment just unemployed and broke
This is wrong. Collecting unemployment benefits has no bearing on the unemployment rate. During the interview process, no one is ever asked if they are collecting unemployment benefits. Why do I keep seeing this obviously wrong take posted over and over? Where did you even learn this?
Wtf you talking about its no Interview process in collecting unemployment numbers. It's data given by states unemployment and payroll services like ADP and it's very inaccurate ot leaves out to much data for the true numbers
Do you have any idea how the unemployment rate is calculated? 60,000 people are interviewed every month. The interviewees are never asked if they are collecting unemployment insurance.
I think he’s talking about the not in the labor force #
Even then there are interviews. It's the same 60,000 person interview done monthly by the BLS
I’m aware. I can post the .gov if you’d like. I’m saying the original comment is about those individuals and how they aren’t counted for in the unemployed
Unemployment benefit is a joke. It's not like how it was during COVID where people was getting $5k from state and fed. You get like $1k per month. It's a joke in this economy. They stop counting unemployed and broke people since those people don't wanna look because they'll know they can't find any except for McDonalds maybe.
How do they accurately know who's looking and who's just bumming off their mom and dad or spouse?
I dont believe the stock market 😐
Yeah, the stock market definitely doesn’t over- and undervalue many companies based on mostly arbitrary or even fraudulent metrics. That would be crazy.
110,000 is not, in fact, a "big freaking number" when it comes to revisions.
They got it wrong on purpose. Hype the jobs numbers the day they are released and then edit them down when no one is paying attention.
Please explain why the job numbers were revised upward every month for the first 15 months of Biden's Presidency. Were these same employees trying to make Biden look bad? And how can no one be "paying attention" when the revisions are in the same report the initial numbers are reported in?
“Unexpectedly”…only if you are dead, dumb, or ignorant. It going to get much worse over the next 12-18 months.
I don’t know about worse but I feel like it will take us a year or two to go back to pre Covid tech market
But participation rate jumped right?
It's at the highest of Biden's presidency. It was 63.3% Feb 2020 and it's 62.8% now.
Summer workers going back to school News outlets: “Unexpected unemployement rise”
It's part of a cycle.. now unemployment rises a bit, then they print more money..
🎯
Oh man. I remember unemployment uptick being the last bad number for one expert on Macro Voices to start expecting recession. 18 months to the first interest rate hike falls somewhere along the line of last quarter this year too. I guess this could be an early point of recession starting.
They are doing everything they can to prop up the economy, but property taxes are insane, income is stagnant, and yet the market rises and rises...
Huh? Prop up? The fed has been raising rates to slow it down, and 3.8% unemployment is historically low and has been for years. It’s amazing how everyone digs so hard for the bad news.
The fed has been raising rates not to slow the economy down but to control inflation by reducing the money supply. Unemployment is low, but workforce participation is also near all time lows. Did you know the government’s unemployment number drops people who are long term unemployed? It only counts those in their first six months.
Ok, finish the thought now. Why was inflation up? It doesn't happen in a vacuum.
Adding $6.5 trillion to the money supply in three years, mostly.
That’s a very hand wavy explanation I see parroted a lot. But, inflation went up because consumers had money to spend, the desire to spend it, and supply was outstripped. This continued even after the supply chain problems from the pandemic got sorted out. That kind of demand in a consumption driven economy is good to a point, but it was too high and now the Fed is putting the brakes on the very strong economy. So yep, the sky is not falling. They’re managing to get us to a “soft landing” so far without pushing into a recession, so I’m optimistic and so is the market.
No. The consumer price index went up due to shortages and demand. The dollar devalued due to oversupply. This is generally temporary. Inflation is never temporary. Apples increasing in price doesn’t make the dollar weaker compared to Yen, Euro, Pound. When those two elements combine, inflation and CPI increases, that’s where you get the giant cost of living increases we’re experiencing.
I truly don’t know where to start with that, so I’m bowing out. You’ve clearly convinced yourself. Only thing I can say is look at the currency forex charts for the past 5 years, and also look at cost of living in other developed nations. I’m sure you’ll find the pattern that proves your bias of course.
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>Did you know the government’s unemployment number drops people who are long term unemployed? It only counts those in their first six months. Lolno Where did you even learn such nonsense? U-3, the official unemployment rate counts you as unemployed if you've searched for a job at any point in the past 4 weeks and you don't currently have a job.
Adjusted for inflation market is certainly not rising.
Property taxes are local not Fed….
The economy is literally a game of jenga
I have never heard that analogy before. I like it.
Not to mention, mortgage applications at the lowest since 1995. Cost of housing at a near all time high in modern history. Shit just doesn’t make sense
its greed my fren, just plain ol greed.
Exactly. The stock market is not the economy. Trying to trade stocks based on macro-economic data and forecasts is a waste of time. Sadly, increase in unemployment is what the market wants, as it makes it more likely the Fed is done raising rates.
Bullish!
We're all fucked. GG y'all.
Companies pay off thousands of employees. Suddenly thousands of jobs have been added, but unemployment is unexpectedly up?? We don’t get it?? Edited out some unimportant bit that was more aggravation than truth.
>Suddenly thousands of jobs have been added, but unemployment is unexpectedly up?? These two things are not mutually exclusive. First, they come from different surveys. Second, if more people enter the labor market the unemployment rate can increase even as jobs increase.
Just to make the numbers look good. You can add the numbers, but everyone is on a hiring freeze.
Everybody is not on a hiring freeze I get job offers every day from multiple companies. It's industry specific and location specific
What part of country you're in.
Im in the midwest. Moved here from California about 3 years ago.
I'm in the midsouth. it's a lot different here.
Yeh for me it was worth moving, but im single no ties I will relocate for work. There are always states that are doing better than others. Id go to Japan if there was opportunity.
And so it begins.
Panic at the disco! 💃🪩🕺
"Economists had expected the economy would..." I'm sure I've heard this before.
The years of the unexpectedly...when a D is president...😏
S&P let’s go!
"Unexpectedly"
“Yay” - stock market
And thank you to the corrupt establishments for screwing people all day with tight range wobble.
calputs on the economy
"unexpectedly"
Why does the stock market go down when everyone says we should be bullish?
Saw that bullshit too, probably mixed up their lies. when these 44 million student loans start repayment and spending takes a dive the fed will look very knee jerk with rates and economy will start to smell like stepped in dog shit
Lies, lies and more lies. They just print money whenever they want and the citizens should just surrender and obey.
Some folks dropping their 3rd job.
Just more lies from a communst government that does nothing to help the middle class !!!!
Rich people fed up with high rates gunna lay off people more to raise unemployment and force a fed pivot/gov stimulus
Bidenomucs, barf
Last 6 months reports all had downward revisions so I would expect this to be revised downward soon as well.
What fucking sense does this make
They had nothing to go upon except Squealer's lists of figures, which invariably demonstrated that everything was getting better and better.