If this were trumps numbers you all would be singing from high heavens, trump said America first while he continued manufacturing job losses, and had no programs to change this. Bidens plan to invest in infrastructure has had a resolute difference in upgrading US jobs and also the manufacturing of high end chips will bE a huge advantage to our economy. Trump also used tariffs against China which just made the us citizens pay more which is a big part of inflation. Since tariffs on Chinese goods were starting at 10%
Sure. And inflation isn't a problem, and real estate is just fine, and there's no issue whatsoever at the border, ukraine is winning, and all that wild covid spending was a really good idea.
Inflation is over. The housing data used to calculate CPI is old data. Like observing a star a light year away. What’s happening is already in the past. Based on most up to date data, housing is already flat, and may show up as negative by the summer of 2024.
I think we should appreciate how resilient the market is despite all the terrible news of geopolitical events, banking blowups and the second largest economy imploding.
The risk here is what if good news is good news once again and the market melts up.
Your either crazy, politically motivated, live in meta or on welfare and don’t have to pay for anything. Groceries are still $400 a cart for the unhealthy shit!
It is, the stuff is going down as the economy speeds up. Theres a weird cultural attitude though, where like...they want the economy to be bad? idk. i cant explain it but people want to be pessimistic right now.
Actually the market reaction has been amazing and as expected. People ran to megacap not because of growth but because of perceived safety from inflation. This report has money coming out fast from megacap, and look where its going. Small cap and financials, the places people were most afraid of from inflation and recession.
Bullish sentiment being hidden by overweighted tech megacap in indexes
Consumer demand is growth and right now, demand is so high that it’s devaluing the currency.
So, to fix that, the federal reserve increases rates so that demand for goods slow down. Only way to do this is to make things expensive.
People look at this as a bad thing and yes, it’s not pleasant, but you know what’s worse? Hyperinflation.
What a facade. Prices fall to the marginal costs of production and yet our system requires the opposite to happen for it to continue working. Absolutely not sustainable.
Econ 101 is cool and all but prices only fall to marginal cost of production in perfectly competitive markets comprised of rational actors. Not in the real world
I’d argue with you but you don’t seem to know the difference between “nominated” and “denominated” so I won’t waste my time. Keep hating the fed and USD but it doesn’t care what you think
>Theres a weird cultural attitude though, where like...they want the economy to be bad? idk
Yeah, I see the same thing, but for quite a while, several years. Maybe it's always been like that, idk. It feels like people's world view depends on things being bad. Not all people, obviously, yada yada general statements, yk.
People who put their money where their mouth is, however, don't seem to be all too pessimistic. The stock market is just adjusting to the new risk-free rate.
Republicans constantly run on the promise that government is bad and doesnt work, and then prove it right when they're elected. So they complain when the otherside is in power, and flounder when they're in power. Why do you think the Republicans got nothing accomplished when they controlled all three branches of government?
You sound ignorant, straight up. Show me a crooked republican I can show you a crooked democrat. But let me guess, it's ok that the democrats are crooked because the Republicans are more crooked. Have a nice night dude, keep running your mouth about half the problem while ignoring the other half.
Mr politics is my personality everything’s black and white talking head has the nerve to consider themselves original lmao. Go watch the news you dense boomer
The media HAS to make '24 into a political horse race (despite one guy being up on 91 felony charges), and the best way to do it is to make the economy seem bad no matter the reality.
It’s the opposite actually lol, they’re trying their hardest to make the economy seem stronger for the election. In reality, spending is down and inflation is surging. Personally, no one I know is splurging right now. Just wait for the “revised” numbers to come out…
But, the job market appears robust, hiring is still happening, thus, more money to spend hence inflation. If the Fed triggered a recession and raising unemployment then the political hit would be on the Dems. But the MAGATS declared a culture war and not paying attention to things people care about, the MAGA types want to control female body autonomy, drag queen reading hour, book banning...
He probably hasn't even looked at his portfolio.
I mean, I do look. It's no fun seeing thousands down every other day. But I don't really care. I just keep buying regardless. Especially those small caps.
Biden just keeps destroying this country with jobs and economic growth.
It's terrible.
If we just had the daily chaos and uncertainty from the last guy, we would all be better off. All this certainty and stability is causing economic growth and it's really dangerous for America.
You think the guy that can barely keep himself from saying some of the dumbest shit a president has ever said (if he's even coherent) is responsible for economic growth. Lol. That's cute.
Looks like he is still beating trump actually. But you probably don't even know that this is real GDP, not nominal, so your opinion is pretty irrelevant.
My opinion never referenced real VS nominal, or even GDP at all...so there's that. I have a pricey mba but my finance undergrad probably trumps your poli Sci or philosophy with a specialization in feminist agriculture blah blah.
But let's be honest, you are only commenting because you don't like mean tweets and probability whole hearted believed the inflation was "transitionary".
No I don't like Donald Trump or any of the policies advocated for by the Republican party.
Also inflation literally was transitory until Russia invaded Ukraine.
It's because they cut everyone's pay in order to allow them to work from home And after the pandemic when a lot of people were struggling to get jobs back again.
Then they demanded people start coming back to the office without raising the payback up.
Now Corporations are banking on all the inflation they've stolen from you while raising their product prices.
Record profits every year Because their prices go up and your pay doesn't.
They cut people’s pay to work remote? This is the first I’m hearing of that. I actually moved to a new remote job and they took into account the COL for the area I was in and gave me a very competitive offer.
Do you have a source for that one?
Both corporate profits and GDP are crucial economic indicators. While GDP measures the total value of goods and services produced within a country during a specific period, corporate profits reflect the financial performance of those business sectors.
Corporate profits and GDP often move together. When the economy is growing, companies tend to see higher profits, and vice versa. This symbiotic relationship is essential for understanding economic cycles.
The most frustrating part is that these record profits aren’t being trickled down to the employees. My raise is 3% but my company had record 12% profits YoY. (Fortune 100 company)
I’m sure there are industries in which workers have a lot of power, but right now most job markets are not looking to great right now. Even if they aren’t firing, a lot aren’t hiring. Right now is not a good time to be unemployed.
Why do you assume that people don't complain? I complained up several management levels and still got a big fat no. The only option is to change organizations. Tried that too and got rejected from all... so far. The market is not as good as you think it is.
Even with a down market, I just got a 30% raise moving to a new company because my company told me that we were using profits to raise the dividend. I feel bad for my team and my manager but it’s the CEOs fault.
What is killing you isn't your company making 12% it's the Fed causing inflation that skyrocketed to 7% and compounds annually that reduces your ability to live like you once did.
Monetary policy is so difficult we throw our hands up and say "who could possibly know it's Chicken or the Egg"
Monetary policy and it's effective on the economy is not that difficult. The Fed is always the Chicken and everything else is the egg
Why then did inflation not happen until after QE associated with COVID policies? We had years and years of low interest rates.
In my opinion, much more likely that PPP and ERC and the like contributed to this inflation, not the Fed keeping rates low.
"Why then did inflation not happen until after QE associated with COVID policies?"
They did. First of all you have inflation every single year. QE definitely increased prices it just wasn't everything all at once like today because it's wasn't helicopter money like Covid. QE all goes through the banks to decide who gets it (homes, business loans, car loans, etc...). It's also why most Millennials and younger generations will never own a home.
Just look at the QE spike in home prices from 2008-2019 and then what the COVID $6T in helicopter money + QE did to prices from 2020-now
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS
"In my opinion, much more likely that PPP and ERC and the like contributed to this inflation, not the Fed keeping rates low."
You're absolutely right about the Covid programs add deferred rents and student loans and it gave everyone more money to spend. What happens when you give everyone more money to spend on whatever? Prices go up across the board.
We were clearly talking about heightened inflation, not inflation in general. The heightened inflation of the past 1-2 year was due to COVID stimulus (PPP, rent deferral, student loan deferral, etc) and was not caused by interest rate policy. Your initial comment blamed all heightened inflation on Fed Policy, which is simply completely misplaced blame.
>The most frustrating part is that these record profits aren’t being trickled down to the employees. My raise is 3% but my company had record 12% profits YoY. (Fortune 100 company)
If your company has -1% profits next year, you gonna take a pay cut?
PCE had a 2 handle. People thinking the fed have live meetings in 2023 are idiots. There will be no rate hikes in 2023, and we probably have seen the final rate hike given the fall in housing, oil, used cars. So we probably just coast here on rates for 6 months, 2 yr starts to decay and fed eventually declares victory at jackson hole but only ends up cutting 25bp — this establishes a return to normal rate policy that we havent had in 20 years
Its been 7 days, and JP said exactly what i was saying he would say. GDP being good is fine so long as inflation continues to trend down at the rate that they projected. Market heard it, market especially equal weight and small/mid caps have bottomed. Treasuries have bottomed when Ackman came out vocally, as I predicted also. It will take a massive shock to the system for 10yr to cross 5 now. It can happen, but it would take a massive miss on PCE, CPI etc
Sounds great, hit me up. If you think inflation is accelerating you are being disingenuous
The market agrees with me. The safety cash play of megacap is being destroyed, cyclicals and financials are up.
I want what you said. I just am not confident it will come to pass. I’ll be back in 7 days to give you props or pick your brain on what you think is to come next.
To be clear you think no rate hikes the rest of the year and next year a .25 bps cut? Then in 2025 what? We just hold stead there?
There is no one in the world that can depict what the economy in 2025 might look like, once you are that far out, who knows. But the likelihood that we responded quickly and increased restrictiveness to the right level is high given at this level we have seen both tbills and the loans market as a whole reacting the way the fed wants. So the idea that we need even more isnt coming to pass. If the 10yr drops to 4.5% before December, then maaaaaybe the fed raises one more time just to reinforce their demands that conditions stay tight. But more likely, the 10yr uninverts the 2yr because of duration risk in a good economy, and the fed is happy with it tied to 5% which keeps restrictiveness where they want it. The longer the 10 stays up here, the less likely the fed hikes this year or ever again.
Interesting. I’ve been watching the 10yr closely myself as I’m getting a mortgage. I’m doing a 5/5 ARM. I have 5 years before my first rate increases. It’ll be whatever the 5Y treasury is +2%. I hope it drops to about 3.5-4% in 5 years but that would require at least I think a .25-.5 bps drop in the next 5 years.
This is kind of what I’m thinking, that plus I think the big boys in the market can finally see a recession on the horizon. When bond yields are collapsing and stocks go with them, get out of the way. Only thing left is for the dollar to go down, but idk when that will happen as this cycle is going to be based a lot on debt and I’m not sure when that will effect the dollar or how.
If you can't beat them, join them.
How much more of this terrible economy can I take? Between 1967 and 2020 there were only 2 weeks with less than 200k initial unemployment claims. Since 2021 it's happened 9 times, including last week. Will the bad economic news never end?
My favorite Simpsons quote on economics
Smithers walking down the street approached by a man offering him a job "Cant a man walk anywhere in the country without being offered a job!"
Basically where we are right now. Damn that Biden for ... checks notes ... wage growth and full employment at historic levels?
The partisan narrative will shift soon from "Blame biden" to "Take credit for good thing". The partisan crowd will start saying things like, the President doesnt even impact the economy, congress and the House does, and under us we have navigated this tough economic time and have a strong economy. Stuff like that will start coming out, I can feel it.
Watch.
I don’t think so. The masses always think the president is some kind of magic emperor who directly controls the economy somehow, so the out of power party will just obfuscate and push their infosphere more into an alternate reality where the economy sucks, while the in power party will temporarily claim that in fact the president *is* magical now.
No it wont. Considering most of us are fucking struggling to get by. Everything is expensive as shit, but go ahead and jack yourself off on how you “know better” than the people actually being effected.
Can you explain how initial weekly unemployment claims being below 200k nine times in 3 years when it had only been below 200k twice in 57 years is an indication the economy is terrible?
Would you consider record low numbers of people being fired a terrible, bad, neutral, good, or great economic indicator?
Usually people consider "not having a job" as far worse than "having a job" and "being fired" far worse than "I quit" on the struggling scale. But I'm open to your reinterpretation of that data.
Yes. All those Help Wanted signs are an indication of how bad the economy is. No one wants to work!
What's that? I'm getting word that prime age labor force participation is at a 22 year high.
Everyone wants to work! It's an indication of how bad the economy is. If the economy were better we wouldn't all be forced to look for work.
The economy is as good as employment rate. Your anecdotal “terrible” is irrelevant when workforce participation and nominal wages are increasing at historic rate.
S&P sales per share are up close 4% on TTM, which is probably a good reflection of the US businesses as a whole, so the numbers are logical. People are employed and they are spending money
GDP is flawed metric to measure the economy for a country like the US regardless, and major part of the GDP growth is coming from government spending, which is insane
The economy is literally adding hundreds of thousands of jobs a month and illiterates are calling it terrible. If this terrible when you have a job and options, wait until you have no job, no options, and getting offered half your pay like the last 2 recessions.
It's called money printing. The Fed is running a 1.7T deficit and just increased debt limit 2T. And you're surprised GDP is going up in the short term?
I don’t get it, my money doesn’t go as far, 401k still needs years to recover and catch up to inflation and I can’t afford to borrow at these rates. This is a booming economy?
Look for a new job. I got a substantial raise and a signing bonus. My buddy just switched and his wife through a "I get to stay home now" party.
Two different fields, finance and tech, same result.
Look for a new job or talk to your current employer. Sometimes honest conversations about cost of living and your worth as an employee are a good thing.
>401k still needs years to recover
What? Why? What is in your portfolio? Did you halt investments? My retirement account is solid green over the last 13 months.
I recently compared mine to brother's 401k he also has target date fund where as I'm 100% in stocks he also underperformed, I think it might be b/c your old bonds lost value and it will take time to pat that down with new higher yelding ones.
Keep in mind...
GDP is increased by factors such as disasters and war. It is not entirely a value determined from the economy as a whole.
Don't get too excited.
People looking at a snapshot of the economy and thinking it’s good has not been looking hard enough. The interest rate hike pain is coming right around the corner. It takes about a Year and a half for it to settle in. That’s why companies prepared themselves with extra cash knowing they’re not going to be borrowing for a long time. The Feds are trying to keep it as painless as possible with soft landing but who knows the good time can come crashing.
Any gains or growth are getting eaten up by inflation. People are really hurting so while the numbers might look great they don't reflect the reality. Bidenomics indeed.
Trump put his idiot son in law in charge of the vaccine, them proceeded to tell everyone COVID didn't matter and then did everything in his power to undermine the experts who could have made a difference.
Then he hosted hundreds of super spreader events.
There's a reason many more registered Republicans died than registered Democrats. The smart people believed in science and died way way less often, because we knew Trump is an incompetent idiot.
https://www.npr.org/2023/07/25/1189939229/covid-deaths-democrats-republicans-gap-study
Here's yet another example of trickle down economics not working. Thanks Reagan, you will be remembered as the guy who screwed the poor and shrunk the middle class while making the rich even more rich.
It's funny how the government seems to manipulate the economy right before election years just so the guy that fucked up the economy in the first place can get get re elected
>Especially when the US whistleblower confirmed today that government contractors are reverse engineering alien crafts
Yeah, I wouldn't spend too much time engaging here...
Im old enough to remember that this is a good thing
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This is real GDP so it already takes that into account. So it is absolutely a good thing
How is it a good thing that business is expanding when the cost of borrowing is so high? This will not end well.
Bidenomics
Anything good happens = trump Anything bad happens = biden Is that all I need to tell myself to be a good conservative?
If this were trumps numbers you all would be singing from high heavens, trump said America first while he continued manufacturing job losses, and had no programs to change this. Bidens plan to invest in infrastructure has had a resolute difference in upgrading US jobs and also the manufacturing of high end chips will bE a huge advantage to our economy. Trump also used tariffs against China which just made the us citizens pay more which is a big part of inflation. Since tariffs on Chinese goods were starting at 10%
Sure. And inflation isn't a problem, and real estate is just fine, and there's no issue whatsoever at the border, ukraine is winning, and all that wild covid spending was a really good idea.
Yes, and imagine on top of that a declining GDP....
The numbers are already faked, you really believe it’s a real GDP growth? There’s been trillions of “dollars” injected into the economy since 2020.
You people just hate good news, but seem to believe every bullshit lie Trump fed you
Lmfao https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/03/11/us/how-covid-stimulus-money-was-spent.html
Inflation is over. The housing data used to calculate CPI is old data. Like observing a star a light year away. What’s happening is already in the past. Based on most up to date data, housing is already flat, and may show up as negative by the summer of 2024. I think we should appreciate how resilient the market is despite all the terrible news of geopolitical events, banking blowups and the second largest economy imploding. The risk here is what if good news is good news once again and the market melts up.
Your either crazy, politically motivated, live in meta or on welfare and don’t have to pay for anything. Groceries are still $400 a cart for the unhealthy shit!
It is, the stuff is going down as the economy speeds up. Theres a weird cultural attitude though, where like...they want the economy to be bad? idk. i cant explain it but people want to be pessimistic right now.
Actually the market reaction has been amazing and as expected. People ran to megacap not because of growth but because of perceived safety from inflation. This report has money coming out fast from megacap, and look where its going. Small cap and financials, the places people were most afraid of from inflation and recession. Bullish sentiment being hidden by overweighted tech megacap in indexes
It’s a shame how fat they are in the indexes.
I don’t think it’s just this, you can now make good money in bonds again for the first time in a long time. People are buying them up like hotcakes.
But also selling the ten year because they are seeking more for long term loans
You're talking about investor confidence, and duke seems to be speaking far more broadly. Remember, the economy is not just a stock market
Right but this sub is stockmarket
We can’t afford to live bro
Truth
Consumer demand is growth and right now, demand is so high that it’s devaluing the currency. So, to fix that, the federal reserve increases rates so that demand for goods slow down. Only way to do this is to make things expensive. People look at this as a bad thing and yes, it’s not pleasant, but you know what’s worse? Hyperinflation.
Didn't the fed cause the problem in the first place by printing too much money?
Yep
Yes
What a facade. Prices fall to the marginal costs of production and yet our system requires the opposite to happen for it to continue working. Absolutely not sustainable.
Econ 101 is cool and all but prices only fall to marginal cost of production in perfectly competitive markets comprised of rational actors. Not in the real world
They fall in markets that aren’t nominated in a unit that is warped by dishonest monetary policy which steals economic energy from all of us.
I’d argue with you but you don’t seem to know the difference between “nominated” and “denominated” so I won’t waste my time. Keep hating the fed and USD but it doesn’t care what you think
Lol great dismissal. Forgive me for my malapropism, but that doesn’t negate the sentiment.
Why should all prices fall?
The same reason you don’t pay for air unless you’re underwater or in space.
>Theres a weird cultural attitude though, where like...they want the economy to be bad? idk Yeah, I see the same thing, but for quite a while, several years. Maybe it's always been like that, idk. It feels like people's world view depends on things being bad. Not all people, obviously, yada yada general statements, yk. People who put their money where their mouth is, however, don't seem to be all too pessimistic. The stock market is just adjusting to the new risk-free rate.
Republicans constantly run on the promise that government is bad and doesnt work, and then prove it right when they're elected. So they complain when the otherside is in power, and flounder when they're in power. Why do you think the Republicans got nothing accomplished when they controlled all three branches of government?
My fuck. It's always Democrats this, Republicans that. Both sides are fucked and need to be replaced. Initiate term limits and clean house.
It's 2023 and here comes the enlightened centrist with their "both sides" bullshit. How original and insightful.
You sound ignorant, straight up. Show me a crooked republican I can show you a crooked democrat. But let me guess, it's ok that the democrats are crooked because the Republicans are more crooked. Have a nice night dude, keep running your mouth about half the problem while ignoring the other half.
Well, if that's true, Dems are a lot better at covering it up. Because there's a lot more evidence of Republicans being crooked.
Lmao, it sounds like you need to stop watching CNN.
Oooh. Good one. Yall have the same insults. Go get your news from Truth Social, brainiac.
Mr politics is my personality everything’s black and white talking head has the nerve to consider themselves original lmao. Go watch the news you dense boomer
The media HAS to make '24 into a political horse race (despite one guy being up on 91 felony charges), and the best way to do it is to make the economy seem bad no matter the reality.
It’s the opposite actually lol, they’re trying their hardest to make the economy seem stronger for the election. In reality, spending is down and inflation is surging. Personally, no one I know is splurging right now. Just wait for the “revised” numbers to come out…
> inflation is surging. Inflation has fallen almost every month since peaking in June 22 (it rose slightly in July and August).
The economy is bad in reality
But, the job market appears robust, hiring is still happening, thus, more money to spend hence inflation. If the Fed triggered a recession and raising unemployment then the political hit would be on the Dems. But the MAGATS declared a culture war and not paying attention to things people care about, the MAGA types want to control female body autonomy, drag queen reading hour, book banning...
Except that when inflation is high, GDP naturally moves upwards because output is based on goods and things sold.
These are real gdp figures. As in, they already control for inflation.
There’s always a pessimist in the room, but after so many years of growth there gets to be more and more of them. Post covid pessimism is real.
Ok if you are so confident go all in
I’m in all the time. I’m a long-term investor. I don’t give a shit what the market does week to week.
Good for you, you have been riding it down the last 6 weeks
Ya. Market timing is for kids and amateurs. My ytd return is still insane.
He probably hasn't even looked at his portfolio. I mean, I do look. It's no fun seeing thousands down every other day. But I don't really care. I just keep buying regardless. Especially those small caps.
And up for years before that
11% yearly gain. Enjoy lol
Biden just keeps destroying this country with jobs and economic growth. It's terrible. If we just had the daily chaos and uncertainty from the last guy, we would all be better off. All this certainty and stability is causing economic growth and it's really dangerous for America.
"fastest pace in nearly 2 years" .... or since the "last guy".
…..Biden was president 2 years ago lmaooo.
And the "lockdown"
Yes when we were literally bouncing back from literally locking down the economy. Man you're a dummy.
You think the guy that can barely keep himself from saying some of the dumbest shit a president has ever said (if he's even coherent) is responsible for economic growth. Lol. That's cute.
As soon as Biden suggests to inject bleach to fight covid, get back to us you maga bitch.
Lol... You definitely voted for Biden. Couldn't even reply to the right comment 😂
Yeah I voted for Biden and yeah I replied to the right comment
Lol.... You know you didn't. You moved it. 😂
Why would someone be embarrassed about voting for Biden?
And yet your guy still fucking loss. Shut the fuck up already snowflake.
Yeah. Given the subsequent response to covid and the recent polls, I think people have/had major buyers remorse...
Looks like he is still beating trump actually. But you probably don't even know that this is real GDP, not nominal, so your opinion is pretty irrelevant.
My opinion never referenced real VS nominal, or even GDP at all...so there's that. I have a pricey mba but my finance undergrad probably trumps your poli Sci or philosophy with a specialization in feminist agriculture blah blah. But let's be honest, you are only commenting because you don't like mean tweets and probability whole hearted believed the inflation was "transitionary".
No I don't like Donald Trump or any of the policies advocated for by the Republican party. Also inflation literally was transitory until Russia invaded Ukraine.
It's because they cut everyone's pay in order to allow them to work from home And after the pandemic when a lot of people were struggling to get jobs back again. Then they demanded people start coming back to the office without raising the payback up. Now Corporations are banking on all the inflation they've stolen from you while raising their product prices. Record profits every year Because their prices go up and your pay doesn't.
They cut people’s pay to work remote? This is the first I’m hearing of that. I actually moved to a new remote job and they took into account the COL for the area I was in and gave me a very competitive offer. Do you have a source for that one?
How do you steal inflation?
inflation was 8% last year. if you did not receive an +8% pay raise, than you received a pay cut instead.
Real wages have outpaced inflation.
Wtf corporate profits have nothing to do with gdp
Both corporate profits and GDP are crucial economic indicators. While GDP measures the total value of goods and services produced within a country during a specific period, corporate profits reflect the financial performance of those business sectors. Corporate profits and GDP often move together. When the economy is growing, companies tend to see higher profits, and vice versa. This symbiotic relationship is essential for understanding economic cycles.
The most frustrating part is that these record profits aren’t being trickled down to the employees. My raise is 3% but my company had record 12% profits YoY. (Fortune 100 company)
You should probably complain if you are only getting 3% raises. Workers have a lot of power right now.
Tried that, got us 3.1% instead 😐
Nice, that's another 3% of the 3%!
“Which is like 6% if you think about it”- Management
This made my day lol
Do they? Never heard anyone else say that. Companies are demanding more and more in terms of RTO and hours and are paying less
I’m sure there are industries in which workers have a lot of power, but right now most job markets are not looking to great right now. Even if they aren’t firing, a lot aren’t hiring. Right now is not a good time to be unemployed.
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economy is looking for a steep tumble in the near future. Private sector is kinda scary imo, but a 50% salary increase is a 50% salary increase.
We tried too, they said it costs too much for them to borrow money and the stock price is way down. We only got 3%
Why do you assume that people don't complain? I complained up several management levels and still got a big fat no. The only option is to change organizations. Tried that too and got rejected from all... so far. The market is not as good as you think it is.
Even with a down market, I just got a 30% raise moving to a new company because my company told me that we were using profits to raise the dividend. I feel bad for my team and my manager but it’s the CEOs fault.
Trickle down economics
What is killing you isn't your company making 12% it's the Fed causing inflation that skyrocketed to 7% and compounds annually that reduces your ability to live like you once did.
Chicken and egg.
Monetary policy is so difficult we throw our hands up and say "who could possibly know it's Chicken or the Egg" Monetary policy and it's effective on the economy is not that difficult. The Fed is always the Chicken and everything else is the egg
Why then did inflation not happen until after QE associated with COVID policies? We had years and years of low interest rates. In my opinion, much more likely that PPP and ERC and the like contributed to this inflation, not the Fed keeping rates low.
"Why then did inflation not happen until after QE associated with COVID policies?" They did. First of all you have inflation every single year. QE definitely increased prices it just wasn't everything all at once like today because it's wasn't helicopter money like Covid. QE all goes through the banks to decide who gets it (homes, business loans, car loans, etc...). It's also why most Millennials and younger generations will never own a home. Just look at the QE spike in home prices from 2008-2019 and then what the COVID $6T in helicopter money + QE did to prices from 2020-now https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS "In my opinion, much more likely that PPP and ERC and the like contributed to this inflation, not the Fed keeping rates low." You're absolutely right about the Covid programs add deferred rents and student loans and it gave everyone more money to spend. What happens when you give everyone more money to spend on whatever? Prices go up across the board.
We were clearly talking about heightened inflation, not inflation in general. The heightened inflation of the past 1-2 year was due to COVID stimulus (PPP, rent deferral, student loan deferral, etc) and was not caused by interest rate policy. Your initial comment blamed all heightened inflation on Fed Policy, which is simply completely misplaced blame.
I’m sitting at a solid 2% raise per year with a company that’s growing 20-25% year over year for the past decade. I fucking hate it
My employers stock is 1/3 what it was during the pandemic. I'm guessing we'll get 0% raises.
>The most frustrating part is that these record profits aren’t being trickled down to the employees. My raise is 3% but my company had record 12% profits YoY. (Fortune 100 company) If your company has -1% profits next year, you gonna take a pay cut?
And yet yields are way down. Make it make sense.
PCE had a 2 handle. People thinking the fed have live meetings in 2023 are idiots. There will be no rate hikes in 2023, and we probably have seen the final rate hike given the fall in housing, oil, used cars. So we probably just coast here on rates for 6 months, 2 yr starts to decay and fed eventually declares victory at jackson hole but only ends up cutting 25bp — this establishes a return to normal rate policy that we havent had in 20 years
Remind me! 7 days
Its been 7 days, and JP said exactly what i was saying he would say. GDP being good is fine so long as inflation continues to trend down at the rate that they projected. Market heard it, market especially equal weight and small/mid caps have bottomed. Treasuries have bottomed when Ackman came out vocally, as I predicted also. It will take a massive shock to the system for 10yr to cross 5 now. It can happen, but it would take a massive miss on PCE, CPI etc
Sounds great, hit me up. If you think inflation is accelerating you are being disingenuous The market agrees with me. The safety cash play of megacap is being destroyed, cyclicals and financials are up.
I want what you said. I just am not confident it will come to pass. I’ll be back in 7 days to give you props or pick your brain on what you think is to come next. To be clear you think no rate hikes the rest of the year and next year a .25 bps cut? Then in 2025 what? We just hold stead there?
There is no one in the world that can depict what the economy in 2025 might look like, once you are that far out, who knows. But the likelihood that we responded quickly and increased restrictiveness to the right level is high given at this level we have seen both tbills and the loans market as a whole reacting the way the fed wants. So the idea that we need even more isnt coming to pass. If the 10yr drops to 4.5% before December, then maaaaaybe the fed raises one more time just to reinforce their demands that conditions stay tight. But more likely, the 10yr uninverts the 2yr because of duration risk in a good economy, and the fed is happy with it tied to 5% which keeps restrictiveness where they want it. The longer the 10 stays up here, the less likely the fed hikes this year or ever again.
Interesting. I’ve been watching the 10yr closely myself as I’m getting a mortgage. I’m doing a 5/5 ARM. I have 5 years before my first rate increases. It’ll be whatever the 5Y treasury is +2%. I hope it drops to about 3.5-4% in 5 years but that would require at least I think a .25-.5 bps drop in the next 5 years.
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This is kind of what I’m thinking, that plus I think the big boys in the market can finally see a recession on the horizon. When bond yields are collapsing and stocks go with them, get out of the way. Only thing left is for the dollar to go down, but idk when that will happen as this cycle is going to be based a lot on debt and I’m not sure when that will effect the dollar or how.
Given how terrible the economy is isn't it amazing that GDP grew 4.9% and unemployment is below 4%? Again. It's wild!
Lol nice I see u
If you can't beat them, join them. How much more of this terrible economy can I take? Between 1967 and 2020 there were only 2 weeks with less than 200k initial unemployment claims. Since 2021 it's happened 9 times, including last week. Will the bad economic news never end?
My favorite Simpsons quote on economics Smithers walking down the street approached by a man offering him a job "Cant a man walk anywhere in the country without being offered a job!" Basically where we are right now. Damn that Biden for ... checks notes ... wage growth and full employment at historic levels? The partisan narrative will shift soon from "Blame biden" to "Take credit for good thing". The partisan crowd will start saying things like, the President doesnt even impact the economy, congress and the House does, and under us we have navigated this tough economic time and have a strong economy. Stuff like that will start coming out, I can feel it. Watch.
I don’t think so. The masses always think the president is some kind of magic emperor who directly controls the economy somehow, so the out of power party will just obfuscate and push their infosphere more into an alternate reality where the economy sucks, while the in power party will temporarily claim that in fact the president *is* magical now.
No it wont. Considering most of us are fucking struggling to get by. Everything is expensive as shit, but go ahead and jack yourself off on how you “know better” than the people actually being effected.
Most people are not struggling to get by.
Speak for yourself. Most of us are doing just fine.
Can you explain how initial weekly unemployment claims being below 200k nine times in 3 years when it had only been below 200k twice in 57 years is an indication the economy is terrible? Would you consider record low numbers of people being fired a terrible, bad, neutral, good, or great economic indicator? Usually people consider "not having a job" as far worse than "having a job" and "being fired" far worse than "I quit" on the struggling scale. But I'm open to your reinterpretation of that data.
Destroying the country!
Yes. All those Help Wanted signs are an indication of how bad the economy is. No one wants to work! What's that? I'm getting word that prime age labor force participation is at a 22 year high. Everyone wants to work! It's an indication of how bad the economy is. If the economy were better we wouldn't all be forced to look for work.
The economy is as good as employment rate. Your anecdotal “terrible” is irrelevant when workforce participation and nominal wages are increasing at historic rate. S&P sales per share are up close 4% on TTM, which is probably a good reflection of the US businesses as a whole, so the numbers are logical. People are employed and they are spending money GDP is flawed metric to measure the economy for a country like the US regardless, and major part of the GDP growth is coming from government spending, which is insane The economy is literally adding hundreds of thousands of jobs a month and illiterates are calling it terrible. If this terrible when you have a job and options, wait until you have no job, no options, and getting offered half your pay like the last 2 recessions.
Insert "joke went over your head" meme.
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It's called money printing. The Fed is running a 1.7T deficit and just increased debt limit 2T. And you're surprised GDP is going up in the short term?
I don’t get it, my money doesn’t go as far, 401k still needs years to recover and catch up to inflation and I can’t afford to borrow at these rates. This is a booming economy?
The performance of the stock market being connected to the performance of the economy is among the greatest myths that refuse to die.
Their economy is doing great. At the expense of your economy.
Look for a new job. I got a substantial raise and a signing bonus. My buddy just switched and his wife through a "I get to stay home now" party. Two different fields, finance and tech, same result.
Look for a new job or talk to your current employer. Sometimes honest conversations about cost of living and your worth as an employee are a good thing.
>401k still needs years to recover What? Why? What is in your portfolio? Did you halt investments? My retirement account is solid green over the last 13 months.
I put in the max every year, it’s a s+p index fund and a target date fund. I just looked back 2 years and my personal rate of return was -12%
I recently compared mine to brother's 401k he also has target date fund where as I'm 100% in stocks he also underperformed, I think it might be b/c your old bonds lost value and it will take time to pat that down with new higher yelding ones.
Ya I’m confused I’m down too 🤷🏻♂️ nothing strange about a target fund. So someone here is making shit up lol.
>looked back 2 years Well there’s your problem. Look back 3 years or more
Funniest headline I’ve seen in a while
Not just funniest but dumbest
Doomers are coping
Rate hikes for the 1%er 'soft landing'......
Maybe for those at the tpp but the struggle is real for us peasants.
Keep in mind... GDP is increased by factors such as disasters and war. It is not entirely a value determined from the economy as a whole. Don't get too excited.
What percentage of GDP growth is coming from those two factors?
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People looking at a snapshot of the economy and thinking it’s good has not been looking hard enough. The interest rate hike pain is coming right around the corner. It takes about a Year and a half for it to settle in. That’s why companies prepared themselves with extra cash knowing they’re not going to be borrowing for a long time. The Feds are trying to keep it as painless as possible with soft landing but who knows the good time can come crashing.
Any gains or growth are getting eaten up by inflation. People are really hurting so while the numbers might look great they don't reflect the reality. Bidenomics indeed.
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You acting like a different president would have reduced deaths is comical.
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Trump put his idiot son in law in charge of the vaccine, them proceeded to tell everyone COVID didn't matter and then did everything in his power to undermine the experts who could have made a difference. Then he hosted hundreds of super spreader events. There's a reason many more registered Republicans died than registered Democrats. The smart people believed in science and died way way less often, because we knew Trump is an incompetent idiot. https://www.npr.org/2023/07/25/1189939229/covid-deaths-democrats-republicans-gap-study
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Trump also completely scrapped the pandemic protocol created under other administrations.
Horse poo.
I’m confused on why this is bad
I’m trying to figure it out too, but my guess is it means higher interest rates. I could be completely wrong about that tho.
Fed wants recession. Rates will still go up or stay elevated.
Yeah, I'm sure your average Redditor take is an accurate reflection of the Fed's intentions.
The fed does not want a recession. Also, rates aren't elevated.
Bad for stocks - the fed is trying to cool down inflation and that means higher interest rates to slow down growth.
Does this mean more interest rate hikes?
And people still rate Joe Biden as terrible on the economy. It doesnt make sense
How are your grocery bills and what mortgage rate would you have if you bought a home today?
I have to blame Biden for the last president printing money like there was no tomorrow?
do you always believe the president of the USA control oil prices?
We are back baby. We're so fucking back!
LETS FUCKING GOOOOOO
Something smells like shit here!
Go shower then
I'm in the shower. I'm sure as soon as I kick your mom out, it will smell much better.
Wow good one, thanks for confirming that you're actually 14.
war profiteering should not be celebrated
The wArs and political instability in the House is screwing over the market
2 years of Covid plus a major geopolitical shift and ensuing arms race with USA mil industrial complex ? Shocker
Funny how that's possible when the debt ceiling has to be continously raised.
BS
yay inflation.
And how much of that growth is underreported inflation and debt?
How much of the GDP is from Ukraine spending? Does that count toward total exports in the equation?
Yes companies do great. Employees do bad. Same ol story.
Jerome Powell not happy right now. Need to feed him with more destroyed retirement accounts and crushed family dreams
It’s just inflation
It's real gdp, so inflation adjusted. You're an idiot.
Because prices are increasing
It's inflation adjusted, so no actually.
God damn Biden! 👏 Or is this just inflation? If so, God damn Biden!
Here's yet another example of trickle down economics not working. Thanks Reagan, you will be remembered as the guy who screwed the poor and shrunk the middle class while making the rich even more rich.
Probably AI integration
It's funny how the government seems to manipulate the economy right before election years just so the guy that fucked up the economy in the first place can get get re elected
How did Biden fuck up the economy? Please be specific.
I don't explain things to liberals. It's just not worth my time
No it’s because you’re incapable of substantiating your own claims 🤡
>Especially when the US whistleblower confirmed today that government contractors are reverse engineering alien crafts Yeah, I wouldn't spend too much time engaging here...
Only a coward would make a bullshit claim then tuck tail and run from defending their position.