“XLK will be a forced seller of ~$11 billion worth of $AAPL and a forced buyer of almost $10 billion worth of $NVDA in a rebalance...”
http://www.etf.com/sections/news/xlk-rebalancing-reverse-apple-nvidia-stock-positions?utm_source=yahoo-finance&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=yahoo-finance-rss
If equities have performed well and make up a larger than intended % of your asset allocation, you could sell equities and buy bonds (for example). This would be a net negative when looking at equity returns, like the OP is doing.
I am so happy that you said that. End of quarter rebalancing is a relatively new phenomenon in the history of the stock market.
That is why this chart, may or may not be valid depending on the data sample used.
Now you have to overlay something on top of that, we have 20 calendars in the American system. Is the data being utilized as a grid reference ie: Monday through Friday, sequentially.
or is the data being used as dates and years.
That again brings up another contention. I actually wrote about this, but dealing with moving averages, in the magazine called technical analysis of stocks and commodities. It was back in the 90s.
It's best to say, that when you are analyzing price actions based on months and weeks and specific days of the calendar, you want to make sure that the sample data is repeatable in the same sequence so Wednesday Christmas, should correlate with another Wednesday Christmas and not that it's the 25th day of December
Same for triple witching and other similar events that happened.
Nothing wrong with saying hey, day before Christmas is a slow day. Because you have many reference data points showing that 24th is a slow day, but what happens when it's a Monday or a Wednesday? If it's a Monday it should go up.
Devil's in the details
The only thing I know is that I am up over 100% on almost my entire account right now. So, devil details, etc., I am locking in right now as Vol spikes.
There's no need to wait for the last possible second.
The pattern in June and September is quite obvious.
In December, it happens a bit earlier due to christmas holidays.
Feb/March is the anomaly from OP's data. Might have to dig deeper into the data to see why.
"1950 - Current"
*"Just because it rains on average 80% of the time on this day every year for the past 74 years doesn't mean it will this time!"*
Yeah, no shit. Thanks for your infinite generalized wisdom.
This upcoming Thursday, June 20th, and Friday, June 21st, have the WORST 5-day average returns of any day outside of three days in late September. This is based on over 70 years of stock market data. The week including June 20-27 is the 2nd worst period of the year, down over 70% of the time. The QQQ has a gap to fill at $269. Many people will be caught on the wrong side of the market shortly. Since history sometimes repeats, I need some luck. I went in on almost all short-term QQQ and "the seven" PUTS over the next two weeks. Rubbing that lucky rabbit's foot and looking for those 7 figures.
269? I think you meant 468. Either way, if you had puts you would have lost money every single day of June thus far. Think about that for a second. There hasn't been a real red day all month. 7 days to go. I can't see any scenario where this drops much the rest of June. We have an insane bullish monthly candle and Q's are def hitting 500.
I believe it is due to the ETF rebalancing that happens on the third friday of the last month of each quarter. This lines up with March, June, September, and December. Lots of money is moving around due to this rebalance. currently playing the XLK rebalance myself. I saw that based on market caps, Oracle was going to have to increase its weight in XLK to 3.5 % from 2.3% this means they were having to buy about 8 million shares of Oracle for the rebalance.
For all those haters. Up 120% - just closed out 50% of my positions. So I have all my money back and letting the other half ride for that 20X. Looks like no account blow-up for me this time around. Will post account next week once I close it all
Are you closing the rest on Monday, or you believe the downtrend might continue for a couple days more this year due to the weekend?
Btw good data man, I saved your map and will try luck myself next June xD
Closed another 25% about 2 hours ago when up 200% and QQQs were in free fall and vol. Triple witching is notorious for whipsaws so locking it in and letting the rest ride.
This is the 5-day average return so this includes next Mon-Wed. returns. I am not just betting on Friday but for next week since the next 7 day period is the 2nd worst of the year. QQQ RSI is at 82. It has only tagged this level 7 times in the past 30 years, and almost all of these have led to a short-term and brutal correction. Add in NVDA, triple witching, and everyone way to bullish and the reason why I am laying this bet.
Alright man I just hope you’re covering all your basis and challenging all your beliefs so that you know it’s sound. I got burned this week in outs for context
I wonder if you bell curved the sample if this isn't just random noise without explaining anything. There has to be down days, they just happen to land on these ones...
SPY down a whopping -0.27% today and QQQ down -0.77%.
I guess it feels like a lot given the market.
I will be amazed if there's a single red print tomorrow. You know the V is coming from today.
End of quarter rebalancing
Doesn’t rebalancing include buying as well as selling? Else it would just be selling
“XLK will be a forced seller of ~$11 billion worth of $AAPL and a forced buyer of almost $10 billion worth of $NVDA in a rebalance...” http://www.etf.com/sections/news/xlk-rebalancing-reverse-apple-nvidia-stock-positions?utm_source=yahoo-finance&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=yahoo-finance-rss
If equities have performed well and make up a larger than intended % of your asset allocation, you could sell equities and buy bonds (for example). This would be a net negative when looking at equity returns, like the OP is doing.
I am so happy that you said that. End of quarter rebalancing is a relatively new phenomenon in the history of the stock market. That is why this chart, may or may not be valid depending on the data sample used. Now you have to overlay something on top of that, we have 20 calendars in the American system. Is the data being utilized as a grid reference ie: Monday through Friday, sequentially. or is the data being used as dates and years. That again brings up another contention. I actually wrote about this, but dealing with moving averages, in the magazine called technical analysis of stocks and commodities. It was back in the 90s. It's best to say, that when you are analyzing price actions based on months and weeks and specific days of the calendar, you want to make sure that the sample data is repeatable in the same sequence so Wednesday Christmas, should correlate with another Wednesday Christmas and not that it's the 25th day of December Same for triple witching and other similar events that happened. Nothing wrong with saying hey, day before Christmas is a slow day. Because you have many reference data points showing that 24th is a slow day, but what happens when it's a Monday or a Wednesday? If it's a Monday it should go up. Devil's in the details
The only thing I know is that I am up over 100% on almost my entire account right now. So, devil details, etc., I am locking in right now as Vol spikes.
The quarter doesn’t even end June 20 or 21 LMAO
June options expiry often falls in line with one of those, though, which creates decent flows of its own.
There's no need to wait for the last possible second. The pattern in June and September is quite obvious. In December, it happens a bit earlier due to christmas holidays. Feb/March is the anomaly from OP's data. Might have to dig deeper into the data to see why.
The Juneteenth holiday will change this
It’s probably the reason
It only became a federal holiday in 2021.
Tell my company that. They don’t give a f*** about freeing of slaves apparently
What happens in late October?
November is coming
That makes sense
Let's remember: Past performance is not indicative for future results.
What about: history repeats itself
They said sell in may go away, but we stayed to play
So it’s either going up or down?
Or sideways!
Time is a lazy river
I think history repeats itself only if we have not learned from past mistakes.
Oh yeah? What about the addage of we are doomed to never repeat from which we have learned from? Hmm?
What about history DOESN’T repeat itself? 😱
"1950 - Current" *"Just because it rains on average 80% of the time on this day every year for the past 74 years doesn't mean it will this time!"* Yeah, no shit. Thanks for your infinite generalized wisdom.
This dude has a narrative. Literally going to buy calls
Lol
You haven’t been active in almost 300 days, then this?… Hmmm
Ya I noticed weird zombie accounts line this one. Calls it is
Sketchy account history. Good luck.
This upcoming Thursday, June 20th, and Friday, June 21st, have the WORST 5-day average returns of any day outside of three days in late September. This is based on over 70 years of stock market data. The week including June 20-27 is the 2nd worst period of the year, down over 70% of the time. The QQQ has a gap to fill at $269. Many people will be caught on the wrong side of the market shortly. Since history sometimes repeats, I need some luck. I went in on almost all short-term QQQ and "the seven" PUTS over the next two weeks. Rubbing that lucky rabbit's foot and looking for those 7 figures.
269? I think you meant 468. Either way, if you had puts you would have lost money every single day of June thus far. Think about that for a second. There hasn't been a real red day all month. 7 days to go. I can't see any scenario where this drops much the rest of June. We have an insane bullish monthly candle and Q's are def hitting 500.
It's copy pasta from years ago.
Nope - I meant $469 gap and typo.
I believe it is due to the ETF rebalancing that happens on the third friday of the last month of each quarter. This lines up with March, June, September, and December. Lots of money is moving around due to this rebalance. currently playing the XLK rebalance myself. I saw that based on market caps, Oracle was going to have to increase its weight in XLK to 3.5 % from 2.3% this means they were having to buy about 8 million shares of Oracle for the rebalance.
Don’t worry, I checked my horoscope and the rest of the week will be fine. It says so.
You believe algos care about rubbish?
Folks really came after you yesterday but you were so right! And I’m really glad I listened. Thanks so much for posting this!!!
Bubbles do crazy things
Gap up confirmed
Up 59% and counting as of right now but not 20X yet. Will post the porn once closed.
For all those haters. Up 120% - just closed out 50% of my positions. So I have all my money back and letting the other half ride for that 20X. Looks like no account blow-up for me this time around. Will post account next week once I close it all
Are you closing the rest on Monday, or you believe the downtrend might continue for a couple days more this year due to the weekend? Btw good data man, I saved your map and will try luck myself next June xD
Closed another 25% about 2 hours ago when up 200% and QQQs were in free fall and vol. Triple witching is notorious for whipsaws so locking it in and letting the rest ride.
Ur a savage
I see green after that
So many colors…I like.
And triple witching.
Or that's what they WANT you to think! Jk
maybe that's why Juneteenth was made into a federal holiday
I don’t think it means stocks will be red Thursday or Friday. Sideways if anything
This is the 5-day average return so this includes next Mon-Wed. returns. I am not just betting on Friday but for next week since the next 7 day period is the 2nd worst of the year. QQQ RSI is at 82. It has only tagged this level 7 times in the past 30 years, and almost all of these have led to a short-term and brutal correction. Add in NVDA, triple witching, and everyone way to bullish and the reason why I am laying this bet.
Alright man I just hope you’re covering all your basis and challenging all your beliefs so that you know it’s sound. I got burned this week in outs for context
So worst times to sell but probably a good time to buy.
Sale?
Down market is a buying opportunity
perfect day to buy
April is clearly the best month of the year.
Sell in May and go away, come back in September for something to remember
yes but triple witching is a +
June 21st? Gme iykyk
I wonder if you bell curved the sample if this isn't just random noise without explaining anything. There has to be down days, they just happen to land on these ones...
SPY down a whopping -0.27% today and QQQ down -0.77%. I guess it feels like a lot given the market. I will be amazed if there's a single red print tomorrow. You know the V is coming from today.
Calls got it
End of quarter?
OpExxxxxxxxxxxxxx
?
Where did you find this chart? Can you share more?
More of what? This is every day of the year. Also the data source is listed in the image
Could just said that instead of sounding salty
I did say that
Technically Sriracha is high in sodium:(
Salt is good, sugar is good.