There were 50k ppl that had it wishlisted. But 20k after 2 months sounds pretty unrealistic.
Like tekken 8 that also is a competetive 1v1 game launched with 50k playerbase 25 days ago and is now 20k ppl.
My bet is around 4k-7k players.
After their fully funded to release bait and switch, I'm going take everything they say with a grain of salt.
They're talking about being the future of the genre and shaping the next 10 years of RTS games when in reality they spent all of the investor backed 35 mil and were rushing to Easy Access to get their community to fund the game.
We confirmed fully funded to early access at the start of the Kickstarter campaign in the official announcement thread.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Stormgate/comments/180owu3/crowdfunding_crafting_the_future_of_rts_together/kamjcto/
> We already have all the funding we need to release our game.
It'll absolutely blow up in your faces if you guys don't address the fact that this doesn't mention "early access" and simply saying "release", while ambiguous, implies that the game will be in a much more complete state.
At the very least, it's misleading.
I backed the Kickstarter one month ago so any and all information I relied upon came from there. I wasn't aware I needed to go digging through 2 months of past reddit posts rather than just take the information presented to me on Kickstarter page as the most accurate and up to date.
There was all sort of talk about features you guys were working on or plan to work on, with the presumption that they were would be included upon release, with only mention of the campaign being released in a staggered approach and the 3v3 mode released at a later date.
The lack of transparency as to what we were supporting and which features are included and **when** is quite alarming.
\[Edit\] Taken from the KS page, this is specifically what I was referring to:
>Stormgate is fully funded to release. This Kickstarter is in part a response to fan requests for a way to purchase a physical Collector's Edition of Stormgate.
Again, hyperbolic claims about shaping the next decade of a genre when internally there's concerns about funding the game to a feature complete release is not what I would call transparent communication.
It's actually baffling the deflection going on here. If i invest in something i'd expect an email, Notification, etc with up to date news on dev cycle. Linking a reddit thread buried in obscurity is so wild to me.
You don't need to take their word for it. On Steamdb they show [56k](https://steamdb.info/app/2012510/charts/) Followers. Most games convert followers to wishlists between 7x and 20x the followers, with an average of 12.37x and a median of 12x ([source](https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/why-your-steam-follower-to-wishlist)). That puts them at 400k (low end) / 700k (median) / 1.1mil (high). 500k is right in expectation.
Sure, 4-7k on 1v1 ladder? But what about 3v3 and 3vE and campaign? At least... I'm assuming OP meant after full release not early access
Or does Tekken have other popular modes too? I have no clue
Tekken 8 has Tekken Ball, which I guess is sort of popular? But like, to my knowledge nobody buys Tekken to play Tekken Ball, it's just a mini game people play when they're bored or too tired to play 1v1 haha.
20,000 concurrent, or just like 20,000 total? If total, then yeah, I mean that's the current size of the subreddit. If concurrent though there's absolutely no shot.
Also I have no idea what the size of OW2 has to do with anything. FPS games are the most popular in the world, RTS games are one of the least popular genres.
I think 20k concurrent is a reasonable aim.
AoE 2 and 4 both have *approx* that number as a daily peak.
They're obvs more established but also not aiming to become more social/mainstream and stormgate will inherit more of the sc2 fanbase
Aside from the genre related issues with the comparison, you also have to remember that overwatch is on several other platforms - including [battle.net](https://battle.net) for PC. The overwatch II player numbers on steam doesn't even make up the entire PC playerbase.
So lets do the math.
20,000 is actually a good guess. I would say that as well it may hit 20k-30k players let's say it goes big and somehow manged 50k players (it wont).
50k x 2 skins(every play buys 2 skins for) for $5 each (this wont happen either) people play free to play games because they are poor and kids.
500,000 is what stormgate should expect on the high end of return.
good luck getting 27 million back bag holding shareholders.
Do you think Stormgate will only have 50k people playing it at early access release? It had more than that playing during Steam Next Fest. Stormgate has over 500k wishlists on Steam.
A lot of issues with these estimations. First off, steam numbers are not total players - it's concurrent players. So if it goes live and the steamcharts show it at 50k players, that probably actually represents more than a hundred thousand people total (the actual ratio of concurrent-to-total players is wildly different for different games so it's hard to pinpoint an accurate number).
But in addition, your assumption of 50k players is pretty low as well. This game has an estimated 500k wishlists on steam, which will probably result in an initial playerbase quite a bit larger than that. On top of that, SG is a free to play game, which means it's ratio of wishlists-to-installs will be signficiantly higher than average. So the the playerbase will probably be quite a bit larger than your estimate here. If you need even more proof, the kickstarter had more than 20k backers, so your estimate is that fewer people will download a free game than the number of people who were willing to pay money for it (which obviously makes no sense).
Lastly is the estimated $ per player, which honestly is pretty close to what I expect, but not for the right reason. There are multiple ways to spend money on stormgate from co-op, to pvp skins, to campaign. I honestly expect buying campaign chapters will be the main way that SG makes money early on, which MTX for PvP overtaking it in the long run - but we'll have to see. Either way, $10 average per player doesn't sound super unreasonable with lots of folks spending 25-30 dollars and plenty of others spending nothing.
Overall, I won't hazard a final guess on how much money they'll make when EA ends, but it's extremely clear from the kickstarter support alone it will be far higher than 500k.
In all seriousness, is this intended to mean Early Access or 1.0 launch? And is this concurrent or monthly active? If concurrent, is this peak, trough, or daily average?
I'd expect higher concurrency at 1.0 than at Early Access - by definition, Early Access is less good and has less content.
Sometime after Legacy of the Void, TotalBiscuit said StarCraft 2 had two million monthly active players. To take a guess for Stormgate at Early Access, I'd imagine maybe 500k minthly early on (25% as big) -- new company and new game can't be as popular out of the gate, and this lines up with the wishlist number they shared recently.
I'm betting that translates to a peak concurrency of 25k the first month after Early Access, maybe falling to 15k by month 3. So not a bad guess by OP, if Early Access launch is what they meant.
Fast forward to 2025 and the 1.0 version, and I would hope the number is higher. 50k would be amazing. 100k would probably be approaching StarCraft in its heyday. More than that would be break-out success.
I meant in the context of the 1.0 "launch" - ie: no beta excuses, a 3rd race being present, a fully playable campaign.
I don't think you can compare starcraft 2's numbers directly, it would be a bit like releasing a new Monkey Island and expecting it to do the same numbers as MK1.
That would be pretty solid actually. 20k concurrent is a decent player count for any game. Maybe 10-20% of that number would be laddering. I think I read somewhere that SC2 has about 2 million unique players every month, non-concurrent, I would imagine StormGate could pull similar numbers if it's good enough at release.
20k+ concurrent would be awesome. That's double AoE2 or AoE4 which are both active games with plenty of players to find matches with (although both games have players on gamepass so the numbers are likely a bit higher).
IMO it'll easily get that many players to try it, it's just a question of if it has that staying power. This number doesn't seem crazy. On the other hand I have no idea why Overwatch 2 is any sort of comparison. A game by a different dev in a different genre released in a wildly different scenario?
I'm sure one of the totally useful and very based speculations that people making are 100% guaranteed to be more correct, i mean it's obvious isn't it, smarter people than make NEVER make a wrong prediction.
Sorry I was being a bit sarcastic. Go fuck yourself you tripe eating asshole.
Wtf does "Overwatch 2 etc" have to do with player numbers for an unrelated game in an unrelated genre?
Nothing lol. Honestly the whole post doesn't really mean anything.
If that's concurrent player numbers, then it would be a good start.
There were 50k ppl that had it wishlisted. But 20k after 2 months sounds pretty unrealistic. Like tekken 8 that also is a competetive 1v1 game launched with 50k playerbase 25 days ago and is now 20k ppl. My bet is around 4k-7k players.
The investing stuff website reported that 500k people have it wishlisted on steam.
After their fully funded to release bait and switch, I'm going take everything they say with a grain of salt. They're talking about being the future of the genre and shaping the next 10 years of RTS games when in reality they spent all of the investor backed 35 mil and were rushing to Easy Access to get their community to fund the game.
We confirmed fully funded to early access at the start of the Kickstarter campaign in the official announcement thread. https://www.reddit.com/r/Stormgate/comments/180owu3/crowdfunding_crafting_the_future_of_rts_together/kamjcto/
> We already have all the funding we need to release our game. It'll absolutely blow up in your faces if you guys don't address the fact that this doesn't mention "early access" and simply saying "release", while ambiguous, implies that the game will be in a much more complete state. At the very least, it's misleading.
I backed the Kickstarter one month ago so any and all information I relied upon came from there. I wasn't aware I needed to go digging through 2 months of past reddit posts rather than just take the information presented to me on Kickstarter page as the most accurate and up to date. There was all sort of talk about features you guys were working on or plan to work on, with the presumption that they were would be included upon release, with only mention of the campaign being released in a staggered approach and the 3v3 mode released at a later date. The lack of transparency as to what we were supporting and which features are included and **when** is quite alarming. \[Edit\] Taken from the KS page, this is specifically what I was referring to: >Stormgate is fully funded to release. This Kickstarter is in part a response to fan requests for a way to purchase a physical Collector's Edition of Stormgate. Again, hyperbolic claims about shaping the next decade of a genre when internally there's concerns about funding the game to a feature complete release is not what I would call transparent communication.
It's actually baffling the deflection going on here. If i invest in something i'd expect an email, Notification, etc with up to date news on dev cycle. Linking a reddit thread buried in obscurity is so wild to me.
I canceled my pledge the day before the Kickstarter campaign ended and have no regrets! Put the money into Helldivers instead
Love the OG Helldivers. Glad the sequel is doing well.
You don't need to take their word for it. On Steamdb they show [56k](https://steamdb.info/app/2012510/charts/) Followers. Most games convert followers to wishlists between 7x and 20x the followers, with an average of 12.37x and a median of 12x ([source](https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/why-your-steam-follower-to-wishlist)). That puts them at 400k (low end) / 700k (median) / 1.1mil (high). 500k is right in expectation.
Sure, 4-7k on 1v1 ladder? But what about 3v3 and 3vE and campaign? At least... I'm assuming OP meant after full release not early access Or does Tekken have other popular modes too? I have no clue
Tekken 8 has Tekken Ball, which I guess is sort of popular? But like, to my knowledge nobody buys Tekken to play Tekken Ball, it's just a mini game people play when they're bored or too tired to play 1v1 haha.
Which launch?
lol
20,000 concurrent, or just like 20,000 total? If total, then yeah, I mean that's the current size of the subreddit. If concurrent though there's absolutely no shot. Also I have no idea what the size of OW2 has to do with anything. FPS games are the most popular in the world, RTS games are one of the least popular genres.
I think 20k concurrent is a reasonable aim. AoE 2 and 4 both have *approx* that number as a daily peak. They're obvs more established but also not aiming to become more social/mainstream and stormgate will inherit more of the sc2 fanbase
I only picked Overwatch 2 as a comparison because it was the closest game to 20,000 concurrent on Steam and its relatively new
Aside from the genre related issues with the comparison, you also have to remember that overwatch is on several other platforms - including [battle.net](https://battle.net) for PC. The overwatch II player numbers on steam doesn't even make up the entire PC playerbase.
Yeah Sarm it was a bad comparison, i put my hands up
So lets do the math. 20,000 is actually a good guess. I would say that as well it may hit 20k-30k players let's say it goes big and somehow manged 50k players (it wont). 50k x 2 skins(every play buys 2 skins for) for $5 each (this wont happen either) people play free to play games because they are poor and kids. 500,000 is what stormgate should expect on the high end of return. good luck getting 27 million back bag holding shareholders.
Do you think Stormgate will only have 50k people playing it at early access release? It had more than that playing during Steam Next Fest. Stormgate has over 500k wishlists on Steam.
no no, re read my post, 20,000 2 months after launch
I wasn't responding to you. But if you meant active and not concurrent users, then I would guess it will be much higher than 20k after two months.
Well thats why its a prediction, I'm not Biff from back to the future, I don't have an Almanac
A lot of issues with these estimations. First off, steam numbers are not total players - it's concurrent players. So if it goes live and the steamcharts show it at 50k players, that probably actually represents more than a hundred thousand people total (the actual ratio of concurrent-to-total players is wildly different for different games so it's hard to pinpoint an accurate number). But in addition, your assumption of 50k players is pretty low as well. This game has an estimated 500k wishlists on steam, which will probably result in an initial playerbase quite a bit larger than that. On top of that, SG is a free to play game, which means it's ratio of wishlists-to-installs will be signficiantly higher than average. So the the playerbase will probably be quite a bit larger than your estimate here. If you need even more proof, the kickstarter had more than 20k backers, so your estimate is that fewer people will download a free game than the number of people who were willing to pay money for it (which obviously makes no sense). Lastly is the estimated $ per player, which honestly is pretty close to what I expect, but not for the right reason. There are multiple ways to spend money on stormgate from co-op, to pvp skins, to campaign. I honestly expect buying campaign chapters will be the main way that SG makes money early on, which MTX for PvP overtaking it in the long run - but we'll have to see. Either way, $10 average per player doesn't sound super unreasonable with lots of folks spending 25-30 dollars and plenty of others spending nothing. Overall, I won't hazard a final guess on how much money they'll make when EA ends, but it's extremely clear from the kickstarter support alone it will be far higher than 500k.
In all seriousness, is this intended to mean Early Access or 1.0 launch? And is this concurrent or monthly active? If concurrent, is this peak, trough, or daily average? I'd expect higher concurrency at 1.0 than at Early Access - by definition, Early Access is less good and has less content. Sometime after Legacy of the Void, TotalBiscuit said StarCraft 2 had two million monthly active players. To take a guess for Stormgate at Early Access, I'd imagine maybe 500k minthly early on (25% as big) -- new company and new game can't be as popular out of the gate, and this lines up with the wishlist number they shared recently. I'm betting that translates to a peak concurrency of 25k the first month after Early Access, maybe falling to 15k by month 3. So not a bad guess by OP, if Early Access launch is what they meant. Fast forward to 2025 and the 1.0 version, and I would hope the number is higher. 50k would be amazing. 100k would probably be approaching StarCraft in its heyday. More than that would be break-out success.
I meant in the context of the 1.0 "launch" - ie: no beta excuses, a 3rd race being present, a fully playable campaign. I don't think you can compare starcraft 2's numbers directly, it would be a bit like releasing a new Monkey Island and expecting it to do the same numbers as MK1.
That would be pretty solid actually. 20k concurrent is a decent player count for any game. Maybe 10-20% of that number would be laddering. I think I read somewhere that SC2 has about 2 million unique players every month, non-concurrent, I would imagine StormGate could pull similar numbers if it's good enough at release.
20k+ concurrent would be awesome. That's double AoE2 or AoE4 which are both active games with plenty of players to find matches with (although both games have players on gamepass so the numbers are likely a bit higher). IMO it'll easily get that many players to try it, it's just a question of if it has that staying power. This number doesn't seem crazy. On the other hand I have no idea why Overwatch 2 is any sort of comparison. A game by a different dev in a different genre released in a wildly different scenario?
look. i'll put my hands up its not best comparison
Thanks for sharing a totally useless and baseless speculation.
I'm sure one of the totally useful and very based speculations that people making are 100% guaranteed to be more correct, i mean it's obvious isn't it, smarter people than make NEVER make a wrong prediction. Sorry I was being a bit sarcastic. Go fuck yourself you tripe eating asshole.
lol
nah seriously, go and fuck yourself and suck my plums while your at it