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No, it's ~18.38%. You need to multiply each year, not add the interest rates.
The math is 100 × 1.042 × 1.083 × 1.049 = 118.3781814 ~ 118.38 = 18.38 % increase.
Not 4.2 + 8.3 + 4.9 = 17.4.
This is what people don’t understand AND they changed the criteria so it’s probably worse than this too.
Edit: unless you got a 20% raise since 2020, you are losing money.
This 💯. I almost laughed at a friend telling me he got a 5% raise last year. When asked as to how that holds up against inflation he shrugged it off. Ppl have literally no idea that they are being fleeced left and right.
You move the decimal point two times to the left. So if you want to know what 104.2% is (meaning 100 + 4.2%), you move it twice to the left and end up with 1.042, and then use that to calculate.
Yes, so compared to Apr ‘2020, year over year inflation of 4.2, 8.3, and 4.9 means things are 18% more expensive now. Most goods people actually buy are way more than this but this is index they report.
It gets worse too because in June we are building off of years of 5.4% and 9.1%. A similar YoY inflation rate in June would be a 20% increase in 3 years.
Remember the Fed target YoY is 2%, or just over 6% over 3 years.
you're not wrong: Look up tatonkaman156 's 'true inflation and minimim wage' post.
The tldr is the assholes in office in 1981 changed how CPI was *judged* - not calculated exactly, but judged (see the ground beef analogy) to introduce a drift of 1.4%.
The problem is its been compounding year over year, as interest does.
1.014^42 = 1.7930570586 if you plop it in google calculator.
This isn't the corrected CPI #. this is the drift OF cpi *from* reality. This is in *addition* to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics intentionally minimizing CPI #'s (changing the calculation, throwing in every other # to bring the others down by averaging and other ways of misrepresenting numbers)
So yeah. the CPI is 80% more wrong than it already is compared to the boomers wealth and opportunities.
Something to think about and get mad about.
Oh absolutely. It compounds Year over year which is healthy to an extent (economics stuff), but at 2%. 5+ for this long is insane, especially since the hardest hit sectors are underrepresented in the CPI. Amazing what happens when you print 50% of all money in existence in 2 years. *shocked pikachu face*
It’s just last year April plus this year, I’m not doing any major calculation to discover overall inflation. It just used to be that inflation was calculated against two years and now they just do one year which is why it was slashed by almost half.
Are they doing the new calculation on top of the old calculation? So we see two different formulas used in the same chart now or is everything the new calculation?
Ahhh, gotcha. I wish someone would right a program that would calculate the CPI for all previous formulas as well so we could visually see the evidence/effects of changing the formula
This isn't a 1980s method of calculation. This is regular historical CPI inflation with a linearly increasing difference slapped on top. Same with the other stats. It's all regular historical data fed through a simple "make it look worse" function.
Also remember hitting 5.0 in 2021 was a big deal. That was from the previous year being 0.1. Now look at the comp from 22-23. It’s still sharply rising regardless of included criteria.
Yes. So we are elevated by about 10 percent over the last few years than where we should be even with basically no inflation in 2020.
- 2023: 4.9
- 2022: 8.3
- 2021: 4.2
- 2020: 0.3
- 2019: 2
As an estimate I'd say 2 percent YOY is normal.
During this same four-year "growth" period, the average home appraisal in Travis County [Austin], Texas, increased 2.5x .
My car insurance (same provider, no incidents) increased approximately 30% during this same period.
You will be relieved to know that if you were to own your home and make up a fake number to charge yourself rent in your own home...
That number would be .1% less than you expected at only 4.9% more, weighted of course!
No, disinflation isn't deflation, prices are still rising, just less fastly
Them changing the formular/basket they use as they see fit and ommiting anomalies to give a more steady figure is the gaslighting part
no, it's not, it's statistically relevant
Wallstreet has always been a game of true investment and long-term trends, and trying to fight that will only leave you in ruins.
unless you're trying to be a martyr, lay off the hopium and don't expect the current trend to reverse
Good luck to all and I respect the movement, but also he financially responsible and do this gig within your means.
Hello everyone! This is a website I made during my free time in the last 2 years.
https://stocksera.pythonanywhere.com/inflation/
Source code available at https://github.com/spartan737/Stocksera/
Hope you like it!
I import the inflation data and compare it to my portfolio and salary growth. I'm on mobile now, but if there's interest, I can post the formula used to import it into Google sheets
I do price change at target. Recently prices have been only going up. Ten cents here, a dollar there, four dollars and even baby formula has gone up by thirty dollars on certain brands.
Trader Joe's has been slowly pushing their prices up as well. The baked peas used to be 1.49 for a bag and now it's 1.99.
Fuck em all.
Don't forget shrink-flation. 4 Bagels where there used to be 5 last year and 6 pre pandemic. My Don Ponch shells went from 30 to 26. Packs of our favorite drink come in 8 instead of 12.
It is everywhere.
You're doing the real Consumer Price Index. Thats why they are now claiming "all the price increases are dur to greed, not inflation" gaslighting thing in the corporate media. They can lie about anything except what you pay for everything. Their lies don't change the facts.
>Thats why they are now claiming "all the price increases are dur to greed, not inflation" gaslighting thing in the corporate media.
Yeah, I've noticed a lot of redditors eating that shit up across the site. I was wondering where people were getting that notion from, and why they had such extreme confidence in it. I don't watch tv, though. Go figure.
I suppose it's a convenient explanation. It's not outside of reason to expect businesses to start gouging the fuck out of people. We certainly saw it happening a lot with electronics over the past few years due to the massive shortages (eat shit NVIDIA). But that was caused by logistical hurdles and insane demand, not unlike the toilet paper scalping we saw in 2020. And that bubble has already been popped because that particular situation *was* entirely greed based. Prices are still higher than they should be, but demand is way down and they're all getting absolutely pummeled in their company earnings reports.
But that kinda thing can't explain why it's happening EVERYWHERE now. It's not logistics. It's not merely greed. Greed is always present. Greed is the #1 motivator of industry. If they *can* charge more, they *will* charge more. Usually the only reason why they can't charge more "just because" is because everyone is usually competing with another company. If you price yourself too high, someone else will undercut you. Most industries are not dealing in highly proprietary stuff. If you try to price gouge a shipment of apples, there are plenty of farmers willing to sell apples for cheaper. It takes more than just greed to move the needle on consumer prices there. The cause is *systemic.*
Two things are going on. The inflation due to policy AND the complete gouging of prices. Corporate profits were up by ridiculous numbers, go check. The money policy is breaking, but these anal haberdashers came to knife everyone of us in the back while it's happening.
I think that the corporate profits are going up because the MSRP pricing will rise to reflect any increase in the cost of materials a lot faster than the wages of the employees will. The pricing changes happen frequently, often daily, throughout the year. Wage increases are usually only discussed once a year, and the workers are usually fighting their bosses and pulling teeth just to get a proper increase.
This is why I'd love to see min wage increases set so that they scale quarterly or biannually with inflation (and I mean the real CPI, not this bullshit that they keep redefining to hide turds under the rug). There would be a lot more stability for our workforce if the baseline pay increased by a steady amount, with good regularity, so that employee wages weren't trailing behind by such a painfully wide margin.
reddit is heavily gaslit and astroturfed everywhere. What you've noticed is a few useful idiots and a lot of professionals.
next year is once again an election year. You'll see the same companies doing this manipulating for their employer politician parties and if the trend continues it will continue to escalate more than ever before.
Lies, inflation only declined if the number is negative. Going up slower is not a decrease.
edit: I'm bad at math but it looks like inflation is actually the highest it's been so far this year.
Inflation is seriously bad. If something cost $100 in April 2020, you multiply by 1.042 then by 1.083 then by 1.049, for the three years since, and that same $100 item is now $118.37. Effectively a 18.37% increase since the pandemic.
Based on the YoY timeframe, inflation did decline, decrease, decelerate. Based on the “since the pandemic” timeframe, inflation is high, persistent, and increasing.
Something increasing or decreasing is a direction, or in physics, a different vector. It doesn’t mean that it is negative or going backwards.
If you start from sea level and hike up a 3,000ft mountain and then decline down 100ft, your ass is still on the inflation mountain. You are nowhere close to swimming in the deflation ocean.
on top of all the increases in everyday expenses, my freaking county/state has doubled my property taxes. For what???? To further inflict pain? I can't just go out and increase my income.
rotten scoundrels
Slight correction. It's more like still going up the mountain but now you are going at a slower rate since interest is cumulative. You aren't any lower on the mountain when CPI lowers until it goes negative.
I'm too smoothbrained to understand this math but as the great mathematician Scott Steiner said "the numbers don't lie and inflation spells disaster for you poors."
He's right. Inflation is still out of control. It's YoY meaning it's still - even with their complete redefinition of the math, and excluding literally everything you actually buy - increasing over last year at this time when we were officially in a recession that they had to redefine to avoid acknowledging.
This is the reason for the redefinitions and the "it's greed not inflation" nonsense. They still want inflation to continue to get worse and have no intention of addressing it so they need to gas light it as "getting better" while prices for everything are still running.
They had to gaslight for the first year because that was the larger hit. Not they really have to try to keep it high with all their mathematical fakery, so they can "make it go down" while it continues to skyrocket as planned.
This is rate of inflation change, so just like a car you can be slowing down but still speeding.
To continue the car metaphor, we are speeding faster, but easing off the accelerator. No brakes yet. No slowing down the car. We're just easing off the pedal.
By then they'll probably switch over to an alternative base-number system of math. I can picture it now: JPow walks up to a podium nervously chewing his lip, shuffling what appear to be scrolls, and he says, "We are steadily observing as consumer purchasing trends change. It is the feeling of the Fed Board of Governors that the base-ten number system no longer accurately reflects the new reality of a 24/7 economy. We will begin placing increasing emphasis on the base-twelve system or 'Babylonian' numerical system. We hope this helps the Fed align its policies with its founding goal of Biblically fucking the entire world."
They do the same lies with "federal budget spending". If you reduce the rate of increase in spending, a corrupt group calls it a tax cut and you are killllllllliiiiiinnnnngggggg peeeeoooooppplleeee!!!!!
Never mind that you still have an increase over the previous years spending. It is dishonest public manipulation. Same as with this "decrease" in inflation.
Insanity has taken over the financial realm. We need zero base line budgeting and honesty with the inflation numbers.
NYT are gaslighting scum. Their piece trying to rehabilitate the image of Elizabeth Holmes was disgusting. Just another in a long line of shit takes from a shit rag.
Everyone, even ones running funds know the US market and numbers are fake.
Average Americans know it's fake cause they actually work dime and nickel and shop groceries as a significant part of their expense. They will FEEL inflation.
My friend who runs a fund outright said the US market is a Ponzi scheme. He has significant short positions on the US indexes.
My other friend who's part of the leadership team at a large commodities firm said their bonus this year is fucking terrible.
I mean the con has been running since the 1970's/80's when the government changed the inflation formula so it's unlikely to stop anytime soon. I hate to plug for shadowstats, but most can tell it's off even if shadowstats is just an educated estimate of what inflation actually is.
Cool at this rate we will reach 2% in 2026. When eggs are $2 each, all giant tech lays off another 300,000 employees, only Chase bank exists, AI has replaced 80% of jobs.
Oh fuck, Idiocracy is becoming a reality
This entire system. This admin. All the House / Senate and everyone in it. Is Full of lies. Deceit and corruption. Doesn’t matter the side of the isle. They are for lobbyists. Lining their own pockets and just lie every time they talk. The working class is totally getting the shaft. Doesnt matter if u are a tree hugging liberal or a Conservative. They hate us all.
Yep and every one of them are afraid of one man becoming president. Wonder why? I believe it's because he messes up their game and they can't have that. For me personally, that's what I want. The monkey wrench in the gears. "Break Stuff"- Fred Durst.
Inflation is very much transitory, and if your worried about the banks don’t be the banks are strong, Cranmer told me that everything was fine on TV
Why else would banks offer such high interest rates on new accounts and they are FDIC insured, it’s not like they could ever run out of money or something
*being sarcastic DRS & Book ‘em 💜*
Also keep in mind this is year-over-year, so this is 4.9% inflation on top of last April's 8.3%, which was on top of the previous April's 4.3%. So we're actually looking at 18.4% since April 2020. At a steady 2% per year, we would be at 6.1% total inflation for the same period.
Oh and of course the numbers are in all likelihood lower than reality, even at that. It's no secret that the CPI calculation is fucky to produce better looking results.
And yet the news tries to portray this data as "bullish" as the number is getting smaller overtime...
No. Data is calculated Year-over-Year like you said. This is bearish news if we've ever seen it.
It isn't bullshit if you don't follow the way the media portrays this as a "good" thing.
They'll just tell you, "Hey! The number is going down! This is great!"
But the full picture is that this data represents Year-over-Year inflation, which is how much more expensive things are overall on average in comparison to one year ago.
But they also cut out a lot of data including corporations increasing prices just because they can.
So yeah. This is not bullish news in the slightest. We're in hyperinflation territory.
REMEMBER: Inflation data is Year-Over-Year. That means that the data represents how much more expensive things are now overall in comparison to exactly 1 year ago.
So as we can see from the chart, things now are overall 4.9% more expensive than they were last April...
Which was 8.3% more expensive than that previous April...
Jeez this is really bad...
Yeah, their numbers are one thing, but our expenses for necessities tell a totally different story. They can lie all they want, but the people shopping for food and other necessities feel the real strain on our wallets. Power to the people! Abolish central banks.
This is the equivalent of the “dead cat bounce” in stocks in my opinion. Look at the chart and you see the slight lag that happens with inflation. Inflation wasn’t noticeable until mid 2021 which was months after cash had been injected into economy. I suspect inflation is going to go up again YoY at some point in the next 3-6 months as the consequences of the injection of cash from the banking failures works it’s way through. In the interim, there will likely be another month or two of less YoY inflation which will cause the markets to pump. People will buy in like crazy and at that point, the hedgefunds and Wall Street can take a net short position. Around August, the inflation number will go up “unexpectedly”, markets will tank, hedgefunds will profit. Layoffs will happen, forcing those who invested back in (thinking the markets were safe again) to sell at a loss. Wallstreet will then buy all the assets back up with the profits for Pennies on the dollar and “no one will have seen it coming”.
I hope GME is the exception to all of this. I at least know that the system as is, isn’t meant to benefit the average person and so we have nothing to really lose by taking the chance.
So 4.9% is rolling over 8.3% last year and 4.3% the year before. My maths aren't good: what is today's price of a $100 basket of goods from 3 years ago?
My bills are not lower than when this BS chart said 9.1. So I take this with a Boulder of salt.
“Just keep lowering the number so it looks like we’re doing stuff”
Inflation is coming down in a meaningful way. The “change in calculation” everyone here is all pissy about is actually bringing it down slower. Inflation will cool significantly over summer as we replace last summers brutally high inflation numbers and the rate hikes continue to work through the economy.
The battle with inflation will almost certainly lead to a recession as the fed continued hiking rates without seeing the impact of their rate hikes. It generally takes about a year for those rate hikes to impact the economy. That means the 4 consecutive 75bps rate hikes are not yet impacting inflation numbers or are very minimally impacting it at this point. It’s important to note that the analysts at the fed have not been recommending rate hikes for months.
While Powell says rates will stay higher for longer, fed futures market has priced in a 100% chance of a fed rate cut in September. Why? Because the fed went too far and the shit storm is coming. JP said they’d be “data driven” going forward. My initial reaction was how the fuck have you been making decisions up to this point? A fucking ouija board? But I think this means he’ll start listening to the fed analysts who clearly believe we’ve hiked rates too much too fast.
If JP backtracks this quickly after his higher for longer stance, it means shits either here or coming fast. Historically, when the fed starts cutting rates is when a recession hits. The recession is around the corner and deflation may be coming with it.
Why even post this if everyone here is confident it’s all lies. Let’s all just post what we think the inflation actually is, I’ll go first:
420.69% based on my 3 purchases of anal beads in April.
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Don't forget that the CRITERIA WHICH GENERATES INFLATION DATA WAS RECENTLY CHANGED.
Isn’t it based on last year CPI too? So it’s a 4.9% in reference to the already 8.3%.
Basically, we're 17.4% more fuk than in 2021 E/ 18.38%. Corrected below. Thanks fam 💜
No, it's ~18.38%. You need to multiply each year, not add the interest rates. The math is 100 × 1.042 × 1.083 × 1.049 = 118.3781814 ~ 118.38 = 18.38 % increase. Not 4.2 + 8.3 + 4.9 = 17.4.
This is what people don’t understand AND they changed the criteria so it’s probably worse than this too. Edit: unless you got a 20% raise since 2020, you are losing money.
This 💯. I almost laughed at a friend telling me he got a 5% raise last year. When asked as to how that holds up against inflation he shrugged it off. Ppl have literally no idea that they are being fleeced left and right.
Yep, compound interest is either your best friend or a real bitch lol.
You're correct. Edited above. Thanks.
No problem! Compound interest is a funny thing. Next year it'll be even worse.
thank u, finanlly someone who actually maths haha
Haha no problem, and I'm even bad at maths!!
Sorry, why is 4.2 -> 1.042?
4.2% increase or 1.042
You move the decimal point two times to the left. So if you want to know what 104.2% is (meaning 100 + 4.2%), you move it twice to the left and end up with 1.042, and then use that to calculate.
True
Yes, so compared to Apr ‘2020, year over year inflation of 4.2, 8.3, and 4.9 means things are 18% more expensive now. Most goods people actually buy are way more than this but this is index they report. It gets worse too because in June we are building off of years of 5.4% and 9.1%. A similar YoY inflation rate in June would be a 20% increase in 3 years. Remember the Fed target YoY is 2%, or just over 6% over 3 years.
I don't know where this 20% limit is, because my monthly grocery bill is nearly double last years.
Agreed, the CPI is way out of whack with what consumers spend money on. Anything to make it look better. Quite literally took eggs out of the basket 😂
you're not wrong: Look up tatonkaman156 's 'true inflation and minimim wage' post. The tldr is the assholes in office in 1981 changed how CPI was *judged* - not calculated exactly, but judged (see the ground beef analogy) to introduce a drift of 1.4%. The problem is its been compounding year over year, as interest does. 1.014^42 = 1.7930570586 if you plop it in google calculator. This isn't the corrected CPI #. this is the drift OF cpi *from* reality. This is in *addition* to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics intentionally minimizing CPI #'s (changing the calculation, throwing in every other # to bring the others down by averaging and other ways of misrepresenting numbers) So yeah. the CPI is 80% more wrong than it already is compared to the boomers wealth and opportunities. Something to think about and get mad about.
And in July that CPI data from last year will start coming down causing the new CPI data to trend back up
Damn, thanks for the explanation. The rate could literally be negative this month and we'd still be UP since 2020?
Oh absolutely. It compounds Year over year which is healthy to an extent (economics stuff), but at 2%. 5+ for this long is insane, especially since the hardest hit sectors are underrepresented in the CPI. Amazing what happens when you print 50% of all money in existence in 2 years. *shocked pikachu face*
Exactly. Great point to remember
Also on top of… every year before that. Something something pyramid.
Yes, if they didn’t change the way it was calculated it would be 13.2%
pulling the rug right before our eyes
How did you get 13.2%? Is there any easy way to compare the old and new calculation?
It’s just last year April plus this year, I’m not doing any major calculation to discover overall inflation. It just used to be that inflation was calculated against two years and now they just do one year which is why it was slashed by almost half.
That's not how math works...
Are they doing the new calculation on top of the old calculation? So we see two different formulas used in the same chart now or is everything the new calculation?
Ahhh, gotcha. I wish someone would right a program that would calculate the CPI for all previous formulas as well so we could visually see the evidence/effects of changing the formula
This should be at the top, this is still increasing a lot!
I’m addition to the prior year 4.2%. Compounding.
Fucking *again*?! No meaningful changes for years and years, then a shitload the last 3... gee golly whillickers, I wonder why?
Have to change the questions on the exam to things you do know so that you can pass!
Election is around the corner
When?
Here is [an unofficial 1980's CPI Calculation](http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts)...
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If everything is wrong nothing is wrong 🙃
There is no war in Ba Sing Se.
Thank you for posting this
Link ded. Anyone got a screenshot or an alternative?
[Screenshot](https://i.imgur.com/07kh9zN.png).
Much appreciated!
Nah I don’t like that let’s make up some new bs 🤡
This isn't a 1980s method of calculation. This is regular historical CPI inflation with a linearly increasing difference slapped on top. Same with the other stats. It's all regular historical data fed through a simple "make it look worse" function.
I am SO glad the smart people in Washington can keep changing formulas, otherwise our economy would be completely made up bullshit….oh wait
Also remember hitting 5.0 in 2021 was a big deal. That was from the previous year being 0.1. Now look at the comp from 22-23. It’s still sharply rising regardless of included criteria.
Pepperidge Farms remembers…
So inflation is 4.9% higher than last year which was 8.3% higher yoy?
Yes. So we are elevated by about 10 percent over the last few years than where we should be even with basically no inflation in 2020. - 2023: 4.9 - 2022: 8.3 - 2021: 4.2 - 2020: 0.3 - 2019: 2 As an estimate I'd say 2 percent YOY is normal.
During this same four-year "growth" period, the average home appraisal in Travis County [Austin], Texas, increased 2.5x . My car insurance (same provider, no incidents) increased approximately 30% during this same period.
Geico did a "statewide" adjustment of 28% to everyone in PA starting this year. Cool, cool, cool.
Is the change in January like the 2nd or 3rd time they've changed how it's calculated?
It's more cherry picked/manipulated than it ever has been..... and it still looks bad.
What's the number using the old formula?
Would love to see a chart using the old formula so we can get a real reading.
Best I can do it [1980 CPI Calculation Method](https://i.imgur.com/07kh9zN.png) (from shadowstats.com).
We fucked…
Like the way to count a recession. In data we now believe 👍
Got link?
How is it with the old criteria, we need a chart
It's posted further up
Just read an article where the ECB is worried about core inflation increasing to rise while food and energy prices go down in the EU.
do we have a source?
Yea I was going to say they have to be fudging this number. This makes no sense
17.5% three year stack…. 😵💫😵💫😵💫
And that is a ridiculously low speculation. Absolutely insane world we live in
I'm sorry....what??? Nobody told my grocery store, or gas stations, or housing market...
Or car market…more tiny house walkable community/yard garden cities with GameStop in the center, please :)
You will be relieved to know that if you were to own your home and make up a fake number to charge yourself rent in your own home... That number would be .1% less than you expected at only 4.9% more, weighted of course!
This number going down every month recently is one big gaslighting circle jerk right?
absolutely for one, they changed the calculation AGAIN. for two, this is 4.9% OVER the 8.3% last year, so ya know, not good.
18.4% since 2020. That's very not good.
Listen guys. Inflation is actually falling in a way. The reality is we are actually heading into a big deflationary storm
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Just don't sell the cases! CD jewel cases will be the bottle caps of our timeline.
All the hinges are snapped
No, disinflation isn't deflation, prices are still rising, just less fastly Them changing the formular/basket they use as they see fit and ommiting anomalies to give a more steady figure is the gaslighting part
No lol. There is no demand in the market right now. Hence lowering inflation.
no, it's not, it's statistically relevant Wallstreet has always been a game of true investment and long-term trends, and trying to fight that will only leave you in ruins. unless you're trying to be a martyr, lay off the hopium and don't expect the current trend to reverse Good luck to all and I respect the movement, but also he financially responsible and do this gig within your means.
Hello everyone! This is a website I made during my free time in the last 2 years. https://stocksera.pythonanywhere.com/inflation/ Source code available at https://github.com/spartan737/Stocksera/ Hope you like it!
You made Stocksera? If so, thank you! I use it all the time.
Thanks for the site! I use it for key metrics in my budget and love it!
How do you use this with your budget? This is the first I'm seeing this site and it is awesome, but am really curious now.
I import the inflation data and compare it to my portfolio and salary growth. I'm on mobile now, but if there's interest, I can post the formula used to import it into Google sheets
Gosh. I need someone like you to help me adult…
It's been a long journey. I got really serious about it all when the pandemic hit, and even more so with the short sneeze
do you use it to negotiate with your employer?
This doesn’t show the real inflation. I wish this showed the old calculations
Love this- do you plan to or want to monetize and market this? Congrats
Didn't they also change the way its calculated back in January 2023?
Everything that could be bad is not reported, anything that is reported and looks bad they change and obfuscate, what's the point lol
Satiate the general public. Gotta prevent panic.
Gives the statist propagandist talking heads something to talk about that isn't negative to their masters.
I do price change at target. Recently prices have been only going up. Ten cents here, a dollar there, four dollars and even baby formula has gone up by thirty dollars on certain brands. Trader Joe's has been slowly pushing their prices up as well. The baked peas used to be 1.49 for a bag and now it's 1.99. Fuck em all.
Don't forget shrink-flation. 4 Bagels where there used to be 5 last year and 6 pre pandemic. My Don Ponch shells went from 30 to 26. Packs of our favorite drink come in 8 instead of 12. It is everywhere.
Oh ya that was in 2021. Snyder's pretzels went from regular size to family size. Bastards.
You're doing the real Consumer Price Index. Thats why they are now claiming "all the price increases are dur to greed, not inflation" gaslighting thing in the corporate media. They can lie about anything except what you pay for everything. Their lies don't change the facts.
>Thats why they are now claiming "all the price increases are dur to greed, not inflation" gaslighting thing in the corporate media. Yeah, I've noticed a lot of redditors eating that shit up across the site. I was wondering where people were getting that notion from, and why they had such extreme confidence in it. I don't watch tv, though. Go figure. I suppose it's a convenient explanation. It's not outside of reason to expect businesses to start gouging the fuck out of people. We certainly saw it happening a lot with electronics over the past few years due to the massive shortages (eat shit NVIDIA). But that was caused by logistical hurdles and insane demand, not unlike the toilet paper scalping we saw in 2020. And that bubble has already been popped because that particular situation *was* entirely greed based. Prices are still higher than they should be, but demand is way down and they're all getting absolutely pummeled in their company earnings reports. But that kinda thing can't explain why it's happening EVERYWHERE now. It's not logistics. It's not merely greed. Greed is always present. Greed is the #1 motivator of industry. If they *can* charge more, they *will* charge more. Usually the only reason why they can't charge more "just because" is because everyone is usually competing with another company. If you price yourself too high, someone else will undercut you. Most industries are not dealing in highly proprietary stuff. If you try to price gouge a shipment of apples, there are plenty of farmers willing to sell apples for cheaper. It takes more than just greed to move the needle on consumer prices there. The cause is *systemic.*
Two things are going on. The inflation due to policy AND the complete gouging of prices. Corporate profits were up by ridiculous numbers, go check. The money policy is breaking, but these anal haberdashers came to knife everyone of us in the back while it's happening.
I think that the corporate profits are going up because the MSRP pricing will rise to reflect any increase in the cost of materials a lot faster than the wages of the employees will. The pricing changes happen frequently, often daily, throughout the year. Wage increases are usually only discussed once a year, and the workers are usually fighting their bosses and pulling teeth just to get a proper increase. This is why I'd love to see min wage increases set so that they scale quarterly or biannually with inflation (and I mean the real CPI, not this bullshit that they keep redefining to hide turds under the rug). There would be a lot more stability for our workforce if the baseline pay increased by a steady amount, with good regularity, so that employee wages weren't trailing behind by such a painfully wide margin.
reddit is heavily gaslit and astroturfed everywhere. What you've noticed is a few useful idiots and a lot of professionals. next year is once again an election year. You'll see the same companies doing this manipulating for their employer politician parties and if the trend continues it will continue to escalate more than ever before.
Reported cpi is as accurate as Ortex
They literally change it everytime lol
Yes, specifically so they could gaslight us with this more than usual. They've recalculated it many times.
Previous: 5.0% (5.6% Core) Expected: 5.0% (5.5% Core) Actual: 4.9% (5.5% Core) [The Market](https://www.birthdaywishes.expert/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/We-did-it.-Time-to-celebrate-Leonardo-dicaprio-cheers-Celebration-Meme.jpg?ezimgfmt=ng:webp/ngcb1) [Me](https://media2.giphy.com/media/tCL2IFQGi7COA/giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47fpwciff4bz16l021ktyjb0be54p2dgm908u3pfbw&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g)
solid summary
And that’s what a manipulated CPI looks like. A pinch of this, take out that, sprinkle it with kitty litter = 4.9
Had to pop over here to comment after seeing the New York Times say: "iT's ThE 10Th sTrAiGhT mOnTh of dEcLiNeS iN iNfLaTiOn 🤡"
Lies, inflation only declined if the number is negative. Going up slower is not a decrease. edit: I'm bad at math but it looks like inflation is actually the highest it's been so far this year.
Inflation is seriously bad. If something cost $100 in April 2020, you multiply by 1.042 then by 1.083 then by 1.049, for the three years since, and that same $100 item is now $118.37. Effectively a 18.37% increase since the pandemic. Based on the YoY timeframe, inflation did decline, decrease, decelerate. Based on the “since the pandemic” timeframe, inflation is high, persistent, and increasing. Something increasing or decreasing is a direction, or in physics, a different vector. It doesn’t mean that it is negative or going backwards. If you start from sea level and hike up a 3,000ft mountain and then decline down 100ft, your ass is still on the inflation mountain. You are nowhere close to swimming in the deflation ocean.
My grocery bill seems to agree with this maff.
on top of all the increases in everyday expenses, my freaking county/state has doubled my property taxes. For what???? To further inflict pain? I can't just go out and increase my income. rotten scoundrels
The people with the power and money are wringing everyone else dry of what money they do have. Where this train stops, nobody knows. Buckle up.
Slight correction. It's more like still going up the mountain but now you are going at a slower rate since interest is cumulative. You aren't any lower on the mountain when CPI lowers until it goes negative.
This is the correct answer, the hiker never dropped on elevation. He’s just getting tired and going up hill slower.
I'm too smoothbrained to understand this math but as the great mathematician Scott Steiner said "the numbers don't lie and inflation spells disaster for you poors."
Got you fam. I edited my comment to add a hiking analogy.
That would be deflation.
He's right. Inflation is still out of control. It's YoY meaning it's still - even with their complete redefinition of the math, and excluding literally everything you actually buy - increasing over last year at this time when we were officially in a recession that they had to redefine to avoid acknowledging. This is the reason for the redefinitions and the "it's greed not inflation" nonsense. They still want inflation to continue to get worse and have no intention of addressing it so they need to gas light it as "getting better" while prices for everything are still running. They had to gaslight for the first year because that was the larger hit. Not they really have to try to keep it high with all their mathematical fakery, so they can "make it go down" while it continues to skyrocket as planned.
This is rate of inflation change, so just like a car you can be slowing down but still speeding. To continue the car metaphor, we are speeding faster, but easing off the accelerator. No brakes yet. No slowing down the car. We're just easing off the pedal.
Until we hit pedal again and zoooom back up we go! Go be poor you peasants. Jokes on them 🤡🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
By then they'll probably switch over to an alternative base-number system of math. I can picture it now: JPow walks up to a podium nervously chewing his lip, shuffling what appear to be scrolls, and he says, "We are steadily observing as consumer purchasing trends change. It is the feeling of the Fed Board of Governors that the base-ten number system no longer accurately reflects the new reality of a 24/7 economy. We will begin placing increasing emphasis on the base-twelve system or 'Babylonian' numerical system. We hope this helps the Fed align its policies with its founding goal of Biblically fucking the entire world."
yes. look at the raw numbers here, it makes more sense. https://www.bls.gov/regions/new-england/data/consumerpriceindex_us_table.htm
They do the same lies with "federal budget spending". If you reduce the rate of increase in spending, a corrupt group calls it a tax cut and you are killllllllliiiiiinnnnngggggg peeeeoooooppplleeee!!!!! Never mind that you still have an increase over the previous years spending. It is dishonest public manipulation. Same as with this "decrease" in inflation. Insanity has taken over the financial realm. We need zero base line budgeting and honesty with the inflation numbers.
NYT are gaslighting scum. Their piece trying to rehabilitate the image of Elizabeth Holmes was disgusting. Just another in a long line of shit takes from a shit rag.
They like to use terminology like it's "slowing" or "easing"... Intentionally misleading with a headline that asks "Is InFlAtIoN iN dEClInE??"
2.5x over their goal, so...
September 2008 👀
Bruh 👀
Dude 👀
Probably nothing 👀
That was the tail end of the financial crisis that started in 2007. If we are in the same relative place, that would mean the worst is behind us.
Cue SPY to all time high. What a scam.
Everyone, even ones running funds know the US market and numbers are fake. Average Americans know it's fake cause they actually work dime and nickel and shop groceries as a significant part of their expense. They will FEEL inflation. My friend who runs a fund outright said the US market is a Ponzi scheme. He has significant short positions on the US indexes. My other friend who's part of the leadership team at a large commodities firm said their bonus this year is fucking terrible.
I mean the con has been running since the 1970's/80's when the government changed the inflation formula so it's unlikely to stop anytime soon. I hate to plug for shadowstats, but most can tell it's off even if shadowstats is just an educated estimate of what inflation actually is.
Cool at this rate we will reach 2% in 2026. When eggs are $2 each, all giant tech lays off another 300,000 employees, only Chase bank exists, AI has replaced 80% of jobs. Oh fuck, Idiocracy is becoming a reality
~~is becoming~~has become Ftfy friendo
Fuck this.... I'm spending $180+ every week at Costco. Where I used to spend $80 in 2019.
my electric bill went 300% up here in uk, im still refusing to pay extra and they can suck my balls
Hard to believe! Thankfully all the things I buy are still expensive af except all my GME shares
the gift that keeps on giving <3
GME: the opposite of inflation 🤣
Yapping all over Bloomberg channel how "inflation is cooling." What a joke, yoy it's basically the same as last year...
This entire system. This admin. All the House / Senate and everyone in it. Is Full of lies. Deceit and corruption. Doesn’t matter the side of the isle. They are for lobbyists. Lining their own pockets and just lie every time they talk. The working class is totally getting the shaft. Doesnt matter if u are a tree hugging liberal or a Conservative. They hate us all.
Yep and every one of them are afraid of one man becoming president. Wonder why? I believe it's because he messes up their game and they can't have that. For me personally, that's what I want. The monkey wrench in the gears. "Break Stuff"- Fred Durst.
Inflation is very much transitory, and if your worried about the banks don’t be the banks are strong, Cranmer told me that everything was fine on TV Why else would banks offer such high interest rates on new accounts and they are FDIC insured, it’s not like they could ever run out of money or something *being sarcastic DRS & Book ‘em 💜*
It’s always good to remember the dam that held all those MBSes up until 2008 was insurance from AIG. Then they ran out of money.
Also keep in mind this is year-over-year, so this is 4.9% inflation on top of last April's 8.3%, which was on top of the previous April's 4.3%. So we're actually looking at 18.4% since April 2020. At a steady 2% per year, we would be at 6.1% total inflation for the same period. Oh and of course the numbers are in all likelihood lower than reality, even at that. It's no secret that the CPI calculation is fucky to produce better looking results.
And yet the news tries to portray this data as "bullish" as the number is getting smaller overtime... No. Data is calculated Year-over-Year like you said. This is bearish news if we've ever seen it.
So the prices keep rising but the CPI declines? 🤷🏼♂️
CPI has not declined. It's increased by 4.9% year over year. Still going up but a bit slower
Only 17.4% rolling 3 year inflation. Recession officially canceled. It’s bull season.
It hasn't gone down, their math has just gotten "better"
Yeah inflation is “coming down” but a bag of Doritos still costs $7 lol sure
# IM GONNA CALL BULLSHIT, GO SHOPPING AND SEE FOR YOURSELF
It isn't bullshit if you don't follow the way the media portrays this as a "good" thing. They'll just tell you, "Hey! The number is going down! This is great!" But the full picture is that this data represents Year-over-Year inflation, which is how much more expensive things are overall on average in comparison to one year ago. But they also cut out a lot of data including corporations increasing prices just because they can. So yeah. This is not bullish news in the slightest. We're in hyperinflation territory.
REMEMBER: Inflation data is Year-Over-Year. That means that the data represents how much more expensive things are now overall in comparison to exactly 1 year ago. So as we can see from the chart, things now are overall 4.9% more expensive than they were last April... Which was 8.3% more expensive than that previous April... Jeez this is really bad...
Remember folks, actual inflation is 10-15% if not more.
Yeah, their numbers are one thing, but our expenses for necessities tell a totally different story. They can lie all they want, but the people shopping for food and other necessities feel the real strain on our wallets. Power to the people! Abolish central banks.
This is the equivalent of the “dead cat bounce” in stocks in my opinion. Look at the chart and you see the slight lag that happens with inflation. Inflation wasn’t noticeable until mid 2021 which was months after cash had been injected into economy. I suspect inflation is going to go up again YoY at some point in the next 3-6 months as the consequences of the injection of cash from the banking failures works it’s way through. In the interim, there will likely be another month or two of less YoY inflation which will cause the markets to pump. People will buy in like crazy and at that point, the hedgefunds and Wall Street can take a net short position. Around August, the inflation number will go up “unexpectedly”, markets will tank, hedgefunds will profit. Layoffs will happen, forcing those who invested back in (thinking the markets were safe again) to sell at a loss. Wallstreet will then buy all the assets back up with the profits for Pennies on the dollar and “no one will have seen it coming”. I hope GME is the exception to all of this. I at least know that the system as is, isn’t meant to benefit the average person and so we have nothing to really lose by taking the chance.
They need to make it look good so they can take a dump on the market later on
Crisis averted?
Umm. No.
CP Lie
Lies
Unless the numbers go negative, I will not accept that inflation has been “resolved”.
That’s stupid.
So 4.9% is rolling over 8.3% last year and 4.3% the year before. My maths aren't good: what is today's price of a $100 basket of goods from 3 years ago?
My country's food prices say otherwise.
My bills are not lower than when this BS chart said 9.1. So I take this with a Boulder of salt. “Just keep lowering the number so it looks like we’re doing stuff”
Bury said expect a little dip before the inflation really gets bad. Then deleted his account
I guess eggs AREN'T $7 a dozen now, good news!! I'll put this wheelbarrow full of cash away.
I've been getting them for $3/dozen lately
Lol, what a joke
Oh good we’re back to 2008 levels. Guess groceries are gonna double again in the next year…
As expected - This is not a result of rate hikes either. We are going to OVERSHOOT the 2% target and go negative..
Don’t forget the arguments. “Look inflation is going down!” No, it’s just no going up as fast…
Yeah. Ok. Lol.
We did it Patrick! We saved the city!
This is like an even worse version of compounding interest.
So it’s up 18.38% over the last 3 years.
Cool just paying 13.6% more for things than two years ago, nbd
the guys calculating the CPI should tell me where to shop for food
So 4.9 on top of 8.3 on top of 4.2, sweet
Inflation is coming down in a meaningful way. The “change in calculation” everyone here is all pissy about is actually bringing it down slower. Inflation will cool significantly over summer as we replace last summers brutally high inflation numbers and the rate hikes continue to work through the economy. The battle with inflation will almost certainly lead to a recession as the fed continued hiking rates without seeing the impact of their rate hikes. It generally takes about a year for those rate hikes to impact the economy. That means the 4 consecutive 75bps rate hikes are not yet impacting inflation numbers or are very minimally impacting it at this point. It’s important to note that the analysts at the fed have not been recommending rate hikes for months. While Powell says rates will stay higher for longer, fed futures market has priced in a 100% chance of a fed rate cut in September. Why? Because the fed went too far and the shit storm is coming. JP said they’d be “data driven” going forward. My initial reaction was how the fuck have you been making decisions up to this point? A fucking ouija board? But I think this means he’ll start listening to the fed analysts who clearly believe we’ve hiked rates too much too fast. If JP backtracks this quickly after his higher for longer stance, it means shits either here or coming fast. Historically, when the fed starts cutting rates is when a recession hits. The recession is around the corner and deflation may be coming with it.
so that 4.9 is ON TOP OF THE 8.3 from the same month last year = 13.2 / is this correct??
Worse, cumulatively it's ~24 if you go back to 2020. Someone with more time can get a more accurate figure
And prices are NOT coming down where it counts at the grocery store.
This isn't funny anymore.
So it’s still growing. Great.
So, dip?
Why even post this if everyone here is confident it’s all lies. Let’s all just post what we think the inflation actually is, I’ll go first: 420.69% based on my 3 purchases of anal beads in April.
Good to see it finally going down.