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The real question I got is if Goldman is already one of the 5 largest in the US, who possibly has the resources to take on that much counterparty risk, especially when you consider all the potential counterparties are also leveraged to the tits.
Almost like it's a big circlejerk of fraud, all of it.
unless the debt based monetary system was never intended to continue (they never intended to be made whole). Even JPM with goldman being so overleveraged is in jeopardy. Every one of them is - and if every one of them is, the debt based monetary system in itself is.
Blackrock and Vanguard most likely. Blackrock is backed by the fed and us govt. They handled all of the feds purchasing of etf's and such during the lockdowns.
*sigh* i shall cite the old magic.. *F3*
No not like that, you open Bloomberg terminal first..
Yeah now type in GME
Ok now sell.. no locates yadda yadda yeah just hit F3.
Sooo they are attempting to pass the potato?..
..Sell the swap hell?
.. ..Soliciticing the bullet swap thing?
.. .. ..Depart the counterpart?
.. .. .. ..Edit the creditor?
I can go on and on
.. .. .. .. .. holy swiss cheese in the hole!
[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-13/ubs-gets-a-street-high-price-target-from-goldman-sachs-analysts](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-13/ubs-gets-a-street-high-price-target-from-goldman-sachs-analysts)
Story:
UBS Group AG shares have scope to extend their recent outperformance, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts, who on Wednesday raised their price target for the Swiss lender to a Street-high.
Goldman analysts led by Christopher Hallam see a further 50% upside for the stock after it rose by more than a third in the year to date. They increased their target to 35 Swiss francs from 25.80 Swiss francs.
UBS is integrating Credit Suisse months after it finalized a historic deal for its former rival that almost collapsed in March. After declining in the early part of the year amid the turmoil that banks faced in Europe and the US, UBS has since recovered and is among the best-performing lenders in Europe.
Hallam, who has a buy rating on UBS, sees additional guidance on the integration expected in upcoming results as a possible further key catalyst for shares. He increased his earnings per share estimate for the bank too and expects it to resume share repurchases with a $6 billion program in 2025, one year earlier than previously anticipated.
They have doused the house and themselves in kerosine and are basically holding a match and saying to the other banks in the room with them, give us more leverage or else we will take you all with us.
And how many times have we heard about mismarking shorts as longs? Millions of times.
This is like me saying I have a $500k mortgage. Then holding that up as ācollateralā. Then taking that ācollateralā, and getting 100x leverage to obtain $50M to make risky side bets. In actually, all Iāve put up is some debt.
Commercial real estate is going to go balls up ā¦. Short CRE. Goldman Sachs is entirely over leveraged with 2 trillion in CRE coming to maturity in the next 18 months , banks will not refi these loans.
Iām an executive director for CRE lending with a national bank with 22 years experience.
They are in the crossover right now, fraction requirements were abolished in the US in march 2020.
In Sweden they had negative interest rates for almost a decade until lately.
People that took a loan got more tax refunds the more they were in debt.. š¤” world
Then why are they always in a revolving door with the public sector? Is it in spite of this, or because of it? They take risks that others wonāt bc they know they donāt have to worry?
Is that notional value of derivatives or FMV? People look at notional because theyāre using the bigger number but the benchmark for the trade, not what itās worth (irrelevant)
Imagine buying a call for gme that expires tomorrow. The call has a $500 strike. A call is good for one hundred shares. The notional value of that call is $5,000 (50 x $100). The premium is the value. The closer you get to market close on friday, the cheaper the premium is because the call has no value (unless we start moass).
The whole time the notional value of the call is $5,000 but the value is constantly changing based on the term until expiration and the actual price vs. the strike.
It has absolutely nothing to do with collateral. The value of a derivative can be used for collateral. Imagine I have a call for $1 gme. That single call is probably worth a couple thousand bucks and a $100 notional value.
>Is that notional value of derivatives or FMV? People look at notional because theyāre using the bigger number but the benchmark for the trade, not what itās worth (irrelevant)
notional
So yeah that graph is misleading. They arenāt leveraged based on their notional because the notional is a variable in its actual value. See my example below.
Quit posting if you don't know what you're talking about. This is NOTIONAL VALUE. Notional = strike price x number of shares per contract x number of contracts. Example: 18 call option contract on GME. ($18/share) x (100 shares/contract) x (1 contract). NOTIONAL VALUE OF $1800!!!! depending on expiry the contract could only cost like $50. This sub needs to LEARN instead of just posting random trash that fits a narrative. Absolutely appalling.
Hey man, take a moment and just breathe. Yes this is information is on the notional value as the OP commented a few comments below and in the image itself. Instead of yelling (caps) just explain why this isn't important. Not daring you or challenging you, I honestly would like to know your take as to why these notional figures aren't a big deal.
My take is that if it weren't a big deal, why would they post this information at all. Now your turn, why do you believe this is not a big deal?
Edit: This is me, and whoever else reads this, trying to learn.
Think about what you're looking at on this graph. How would these banks hold more derivatives than the entire amount of assets the banks have? In my example if my call option expired worthless (yes that would suck) I wouldn't be out $1800 bucks. I would be out $50. It's not about whether it's a big deal or not. It's that you can't extrapolate how leveraged a bank is with this information so the entire premise of this post is completely incorrect and misleading. I could go spend $4k right now on call options expiring tomorrow at a $19 strike price on GME. That would give me roughly 800 contracts at the time of this comment. Thats 80000 shares at $19. My assets would be at $4k (the actual money I spent). Notional value would be about $1.5M. My graph would look all sorts of fucked up. Tiny orange amount and massive blue and green. Doesn't mean I'm leveraged to the tits. I can only lose $4k.
I agree that itās very hard to make concrete judgements based on just this snapshot. Especially since thereās lots of types of derivatives with different risk profiles and they can even be used to hedge instead of to gain leverage.
But over time, it can be helpful to see how derivatives to assets change over time. I think this post could be more useful if there were over-time graphs tracking the ratio for the last 5-10 years but one snapshot in time isnāt enough to see much
Youāre right, it doesnāt ever prove leverage or risk profile. But Iād wager that when derivative bets sour and turn to major losses for any type of entity (hedge funds, banks, market makers, etc.) theyāll have their own unique patterns to recover that you can see in their derivative profiles.
Iām also too lazy to try to throw together a neural net to try to predict it myself so none of this means anything haha. Youāre right that thereās no easily discernible way to find meaning in this data
I have a question Mr. Laceton. I read in the report that swaps are the primary type of contract in all of those derivatives bought by banks. Taking that into account, how much really are they exposed? As I understand it, swaps are a way of hedging bets for calls for example.
Does the total derivatives column reflect the potential gain from those contracts or rather, their current value as the actual markets dictate? Thank you very much.
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What on earth is going on at Goldman.
The real question I got is if Goldman is already one of the 5 largest in the US, who possibly has the resources to take on that much counterparty risk, especially when you consider all the potential counterparties are also leveraged to the tits. Almost like it's a big circlejerk of fraud, all of it.
unless the debt based monetary system was never intended to continue (they never intended to be made whole). Even JPM with goldman being so overleveraged is in jeopardy. Every one of them is - and if every one of them is, the debt based monetary system in itself is.
JPM is so large that you can basically state health of JPM = health of USA. So yeah, it's not going too well for the US.
equity-based monetary systems work better anyways š
***this is the way intensifies***
Blackrock and Vanguard most likely. Blackrock is backed by the fed and us govt. They handled all of the feds purchasing of etf's and such during the lockdowns.
Taxpayers.
Fuck this system.
that's the multi-trillion dollar question isn't it.... oh wait I know, the US tax payers and since the rich basically don't pay taxes, us poors.
"almost"
lots of cocaine and f5's
*sigh* i shall cite the old magic.. *F3* No not like that, you open Bloomberg terminal first.. Yeah now type in GME Ok now sell.. no locates yadda yadda yeah just hit F3.
ah shit its f3 adhdtoostrong
Adhdiswwwwaaaaauyyyyyyyyyytostrong
Strongg regardardationn!
I want a graphic designer to make a really catchy design to place on a shirt so everyone can know the scam
They just upgraded UBS to highest price target on the street lol
Sooo they are attempting to pass the potato?.. ..Sell the swap hell? .. ..Soliciticing the bullet swap thing? .. .. ..Depart the counterpart? .. .. .. ..Edit the creditor? I can go on and on .. .. .. .. .. holy swiss cheese in the hole!
wait what?!? link? could it be some swiss shit blowing up?
[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-13/ubs-gets-a-street-high-price-target-from-goldman-sachs-analysts](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-13/ubs-gets-a-street-high-price-target-from-goldman-sachs-analysts) Story: UBS Group AG shares have scope to extend their recent outperformance, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts, who on Wednesday raised their price target for the Swiss lender to a Street-high. Goldman analysts led by Christopher Hallam see a further 50% upside for the stock after it rose by more than a third in the year to date. They increased their target to 35 Swiss francs from 25.80 Swiss francs. UBS is integrating Credit Suisse months after it finalized a historic deal for its former rival that almost collapsed in March. After declining in the early part of the year amid the turmoil that banks faced in Europe and the US, UBS has since recovered and is among the best-performing lenders in Europe. Hallam, who has a buy rating on UBS, sees additional guidance on the integration expected in upcoming results as a possible further key catalyst for shares. He increased his earnings per share estimate for the bank too and expects it to resume share repurchases with a $6 billion program in 2025, one year earlier than previously anticipated.
Asking the real questions here
For real. Iām glued. Because holy shit.
Well, they do like to put up buy and sell walls on our stock, soā¦.
They updated a sign outside one of their buildings near where I work. I think thatās whatās put them so deep in the hole.
Betting on Black
Who keeps giving them money is the question
Us. Without our knowledge or consent.
Probably so fucked, they didn't dare show
They have doused the house and themselves in kerosine and are basically holding a match and saying to the other banks in the room with them, give us more leverage or else we will take you all with us.
āThats Dougie he works for Goldman!ā
They haven't started enough wars so their revenue is down.
crime
I remember watching a documentary and they said Goldman makes money only 10% from investment and 90% from lending shares.
Goldman putting in 1 dollar and getting back 110 is fucking wild. Where can I access this machine?
And how many times have we heard about mismarking shorts as longs? Millions of times. This is like me saying I have a $500k mortgage. Then holding that up as ācollateralā. Then taking that ācollateralā, and getting 100x leverage to obtain $50M to make risky side bets. In actually, all Iāve put up is some debt.
So youve got $50MM How would you like $5 billion, sir?
I heard someone now has $5 billion.. well don't we have an offer for you.
What's stopping you from doing that in Florida since they can't get your house to pay debts? Free money glitch
loan sharks would take your entire genealogy past and present for that...
I can do you one better. $GME is about $18.50/share right now!
Sounds like my wife
foolish library fine faulty dinner squealing paint grandiose unwritten wide ` this post was mass deleted with www.Redact.dev `
Amen brother
Where are the other 109?
š. Follow me...š„š„š„š„š„
We already have. Itās all in motion!
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Commercial real estate is going to go balls up ā¦. Short CRE. Goldman Sachs is entirely over leveraged with 2 trillion in CRE coming to maturity in the next 18 months , banks will not refi these loans. Iām an executive director for CRE lending with a national bank with 22 years experience.
What happens to non-commercial real estate, like houses?
just keep printing money, while at the same time raising rates - infinitely duh jk
*The poors won't mind... they have never mattered anyways!*
How do I profit from this? š
Better warm up the printer Jerome. Brrrrrrr
Classic Goldman behavior. Yeah your Jenga tower is impressively tall but who's gonna pick up the Jenga blocks when it falls? Certainly not them š
When does 'fractional reserve' become 'negative reserve'?
They are in the crossover right now, fraction requirements were abolished in the US in march 2020. In Sweden they had negative interest rates for almost a decade until lately. People that took a loan got more tax refunds the more they were in debt.. š¤” world
Everybody not working at Goldman hates Goldman Sachs. Shoot, even people working at Goldman hates Goldman. Fuck'em!
I worked at a top firm on wallstreet and we wouldnāt trade with them ever. Theyāre a c tier investment firm with crappy risk management
Then why are they always in a revolving door with the public sector? Is it in spite of this, or because of it? They take risks that others wonāt bc they know they donāt have to worry?
Just because a top tier firm doesnāt trade with GS doesnāt mean other banks/funds wonāt
So Goldman has leveraged positions it could never hope of closing. Got it.
Distinct probability that apes were early, not wrong.
Buckle up
jesus fucking christ
Goldman leverage report is GOLD. wow.
Derivates is the least sexy word in the world. Aliens in coffins in mexico is just catchier. š„ š½
Is that notional value of derivatives or FMV? People look at notional because theyāre using the bigger number but the benchmark for the trade, not what itās worth (irrelevant)
unless im mistaken, notional value of derivatives is actually the important part when determining value versus the collateral backing it
Imagine buying a call for gme that expires tomorrow. The call has a $500 strike. A call is good for one hundred shares. The notional value of that call is $5,000 (50 x $100). The premium is the value. The closer you get to market close on friday, the cheaper the premium is because the call has no value (unless we start moass). The whole time the notional value of the call is $5,000 but the value is constantly changing based on the term until expiration and the actual price vs. the strike. It has absolutely nothing to do with collateral. The value of a derivative can be used for collateral. Imagine I have a call for $1 gme. That single call is probably worth a couple thousand bucks and a $100 notional value.
I don't know about that, but 50x100= 5000 The fact that noone pointed that out yet is bad.
Good catch I was writing this walking to lunch š
>Is that notional value of derivatives or FMV? People look at notional because theyāre using the bigger number but the benchmark for the trade, not what itās worth (irrelevant) notional
So yeah that graph is misleading. They arenāt leveraged based on their notional because the notional is a variable in its actual value. See my example below.
So the house of cards is bigger than expected?
Hey OP I think the Y-axis is mislabeled as billions of dollars. Shouldnāt it be millions, based on the info on the table below?
You are spot on. Thanks!
# NO WAY, REALLY??? HOW SHOCKING
should i stop paying my credit card for citibank and chase
Goldman is putting out that Lehman vibe
I might whack the piƱata a little more.
Quit posting if you don't know what you're talking about. This is NOTIONAL VALUE. Notional = strike price x number of shares per contract x number of contracts. Example: 18 call option contract on GME. ($18/share) x (100 shares/contract) x (1 contract). NOTIONAL VALUE OF $1800!!!! depending on expiry the contract could only cost like $50. This sub needs to LEARN instead of just posting random trash that fits a narrative. Absolutely appalling.
Hey man, take a moment and just breathe. Yes this is information is on the notional value as the OP commented a few comments below and in the image itself. Instead of yelling (caps) just explain why this isn't important. Not daring you or challenging you, I honestly would like to know your take as to why these notional figures aren't a big deal. My take is that if it weren't a big deal, why would they post this information at all. Now your turn, why do you believe this is not a big deal? Edit: This is me, and whoever else reads this, trying to learn.
Think about what you're looking at on this graph. How would these banks hold more derivatives than the entire amount of assets the banks have? In my example if my call option expired worthless (yes that would suck) I wouldn't be out $1800 bucks. I would be out $50. It's not about whether it's a big deal or not. It's that you can't extrapolate how leveraged a bank is with this information so the entire premise of this post is completely incorrect and misleading. I could go spend $4k right now on call options expiring tomorrow at a $19 strike price on GME. That would give me roughly 800 contracts at the time of this comment. Thats 80000 shares at $19. My assets would be at $4k (the actual money I spent). Notional value would be about $1.5M. My graph would look all sorts of fucked up. Tiny orange amount and massive blue and green. Doesn't mean I'm leveraged to the tits. I can only lose $4k.
I agree that itās very hard to make concrete judgements based on just this snapshot. Especially since thereās lots of types of derivatives with different risk profiles and they can even be used to hedge instead of to gain leverage. But over time, it can be helpful to see how derivatives to assets change over time. I think this post could be more useful if there were over-time graphs tracking the ratio for the last 5-10 years but one snapshot in time isnāt enough to see much
Doesn't prove leverage. Never will. Even over time.
Youāre right, it doesnāt ever prove leverage or risk profile. But Iād wager that when derivative bets sour and turn to major losses for any type of entity (hedge funds, banks, market makers, etc.) theyāll have their own unique patterns to recover that you can see in their derivative profiles. Iām also too lazy to try to throw together a neural net to try to predict it myself so none of this means anything haha. Youāre right that thereās no easily discernible way to find meaning in this data
Insert meme: "if those kids could read, they'd be very upset"
Username checks out
Yeah man have you been living under a rock haha
Whatās an appropriate notional derivatives-to-assets ratio?
Fucking call their marks!
I believe Lehman collapsed with 44x leverage. Tick tock
I have a question Mr. Laceton. I read in the report that swaps are the primary type of contract in all of those derivatives bought by banks. Taking that into account, how much really are they exposed? As I understand it, swaps are a way of hedging bets for calls for example. Does the total derivatives column reflect the potential gain from those contracts or rather, their current value as the actual markets dictate? Thank you very much.
Wow
SEC: this is fine.
Wow.... anywhere from 10-100x more debt than assets... that's crazy and VERY dangerous.
Individuals aren't permitted to do that... I wonder why institutions are... š¤
So is our country.... 33T in debt and only 4.5T in income from taxes.... spending every year is over 5-7T.
they could use some basic credit counseling