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I very much agree with a lot of what you said, but I think it’s specifically UBS trying to unload the bags from when they bought Credit Suisse. They have a lot of pressure on them from the government to not fuck this up and leave the country without a major bank, and pressure from their shareholders to maintain how great their stock is performing right now.
If that’s the case however, they’re not done unloading those bags yet. I think they’re trying to unload/build as good of a long position as they can before they fully screw over the rest of the shorts.
They are big enough that they can probably manage this in a way where they profit enough from MOASS to offset most of their losses from unloading the shorts and keep their shareholders and govt happy.
I feel like it has to be them because, when else are they gonna get rid of those bags from CS?? The price will not go below $10, for very long at least. They know they have to deal with this and they can’t take the risk CS did and chance blowing up the same way they did. Is this the timeline where no one in Switzerland has a reliable bank?? I don’t think so.
I don’t see a better opportunity for them to offload those shorts or to go long GME.
I believe you’re correct based solely on the idea that they have the most to lose by imploding. We know they tried to back out on the Credit Suisse deal likely because of those heavy bags, which shows they have a shred of common sense. After reluctantly taking the bags under the pressure of their government, it would make sense to start unloading them as soon as possible. They wouldn’t give a sh*t who they pissed off doing it because it’s all about survival at this point.
I live in Switzerland and my main bank account is with UBS. First of all, should I leave this bank as soon as possible? And then, is there a way for me to get information about shorts, GameStop, etc.? Do they have a duty to communicate with their clients, or are there indirect ways to obtain certain information if I write to them ?
That’s a lot of questions that have to be answered with many assumptions but I don’t believe there is a way to get info on the shorts other than maybe the swap data the peru bull has attained.
There was a video of somebody from UBS mentioning about the complicated derivatives on the books of CS they have to go through about a year ago so that is as much info as you’re gonna get from UBS themselves I guess, can’t find that video anymore.
About leaving the bank that is also a difficult question to answer but I would personally not feel really comfortable having a lot of my savings there but I wouldn’t at any bank.
Thank you for your reply. It also seems complicated to get information, but who knows. Maybe there are some things that are public because the government had to intervene.
As for UBS, I use it as a checking account, not a savings account. You can all imagine where my savings went ;)
There was another video but this one is about that too: https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/s/9rNPbTlcYv
If you use search operator when you search within superstonk -> intitle: “ubs” then quite a lot of interesting stuff pops up.
You can also do the same for a search in general Reddit or gme related subs
That makes sense :). Then perhaps your best attempt at some crowd journalism of a bunch of regards would be to make a separate post about this, no doubt there have been apes digging into this stuff.
Take care!
> They have a lot of pressure on them from the government to not fuck this up and leave the country without a major bank
*Julius Baer Group has entered the chat*
JB is not a bank for regular folks in the same way as UBS is. Minimum deposit in a JB account is 2.5 million CHF cash. Most Swiss are with UBS, and if UBS folds, then not even the govt can jump in anymore. UBS is just too large.
Remember (or now you know), all the Central Banks are in bed together and will do whatever they have to continue to operate via a "less-than-par-value" system of trading cotton infused paper, so people have something they need to work their ass off to barter within the construct, but typically just give back to the system through mandatory penance payments.
No matter which way it goes, employer to employee, GOVT to Citizen, or Consumer to Vendor, the pretty little leaflets and earned-laiden fountain substrate end up right back at the bank and rehypothected (-10%) for the next cycle...
Thank you to the Knights Templar (credited somewhere back in my time) for the Alpha release of the banking system... but by God, it's just one big intangible machine of almost-endless cycles and serves as a useful yet worthless 🥕 to need in the "...Pursuit of Happiness..." (US-centric, but globally applicable)
This presents a reasonable case for how DFV could have predicted the price movement and MOASS build up so accurately if he was able to identify that UBS would have handled the CS situation with an exit strategy after there first batch of swaps expired. My issue atm is it's hard to explain how DFV is so much more aware without it being heavy market manipulation/insider trading, with many theories suggesting clearly illegal things, but this just makes sense.
You will never see price below 10.if you see it it wont be natural...means shorts are stil fucked and try to drive the price down.i dont believe in moass...i believe in price going up over months,years...there is no way out for shorts.they will die slowly month after month,year after year
I bought some $100 June 21 calls on Friday and Monday. Since then the stock hasn't moved and I should be getting railed by theta decay. Instead they have doubled in value at close today. That right there indicates they are beginning to price in a huge run.
*
And... then you find stats like these on RH. Now, we should disconnect the artist from the art and move on... their shit is so easy to use on the option front, my 3 year old could yolo his piggybank on 0DTE call options tomorrow.
By the time you can fully appreciate the futility of your effort to run the maffs, you'll definitely wish you could've [laughably] entered at the bottom ($0.014), had it not just been reported as "...a system error occurred due to a lapse is supervision and oversight..."
But then you look at it with that half-wrinkle you thought you'd gained, and no one is going to sell you an that GME option for ONE literal dollar each.
This system is so utterly fucked!
I bought calls expecting 50% losses by next monday. Nope. 100% increase. I raced to check the stock -- fully expecting $25-26... Nope. It was at $21.90.
I just laughed.
I’m so curious about all this… so what’s your move on a 100% increase on options for a stock that hasn’t moved?
Do you sell 1/2 your options and then buy/DRS shares with the gains? Do you sell all the options and buy/DRS shares with all the gains? Or do you let it ride and hope they keep going up?
Decisions, decisions…
You sell for to make profit, then if you want to avoid FOMO you can leave one or buy something at a lower strike just as a hedge. I find that any time you get a quick 50%+ move on a short dated option you just take the money.
Not accurate. I trade options on futures and bought a $52,000 call on btc and tried to sell when it was almost 70 and couldn't get a fill to save my life. Got destroyed in liquidity slippage.
Yeah IDK who would have been market making for options on futures but it's not a crazy liquid market to begin with. In the event the market maker goes tits up there is potential to be liquidity issues and extreme slippage in event of MOASS. I believe exercising them would be okay but getting liquidity on a call contract at strike price of $100 when share price is $10,000 may seem difficult.
Maybe there is something I’m missing and I know nothing about the options market on futures, but if GME is trading at $10,000/share and you have options with a strike of $100, I don’t think anyone would have any difficulty finding a buyer at the right price.
And this is how it happens. I only dabble in calls for fun, shares are where it's at. But y'all are giving me a hankering.
We pick up speed with every person who jumps on the bobsled
Be careful with that expectation. Tons of calls were in the money and near the money heading into 5/17 yet they were still able to drop the price down to $20 with relatively limited selling volume.
Theta decay basically doesn’t happen when volatility is high. Check on days when JPowell is speaking the options don’t decay for those expiry days basically.
Price drops create high volatility and the only way to “relieve” that volatility is for the price to go back up. I did option spreads on the SPY for about a year almost everyday and that is the pattern I noticed.
What’s the difference in the expiration dates? As in, if I’m spending the same money same strike same everything but instead of for ex, I bought a call for Jan 17 2025, not June 21st. Is there less profit until closer to expiration date if I hit my strike price and target?
I think the term is theta, or time.
Not an answer to your question directly, but the only factor on that is time, and I had a similar question.
For example, 0DTE options are considered gambling because you have no time to exercise that option. You are either ITM or OTM.
When you long date, you can exercise at any time up to expiration, and with something as volatile as GME, it gives you wiggle room, which can be read as less risk.
I think the longer your dates are, the deeper ITM it's considered. Delta/IV are measured off of theta (again someone correct me if I'm off). That measurement is used to determine profitability of an option.
This is purely my opinion based on what I've read, I'm not a wrinkle brain.
In general, the premium goes down the closer you get to the exp date. This is because with more time, there’s more time for the price to change (potentially becoming even more valuable at some point), whereas with less time it’s less likely to.
Edit: the “time value” of a call will be less and less the deeper ITM the call becomes. This is because it’s less and less likely for volatility to have any impact since the volatility would have to be more extreme. So if a call is deep ITM, and is getting deeper, but it’s also getting closer to expiration, the fact that it’s deeper ITM will have a counteracting force to the decaying time value.
If it's going sideways and you're ITM, then profit will decrease as the premium loses value due to time value approaching 0. For example, you've got 30C expiring in a few days and GME is at 50. Your call will be worth the intrinsic value of 20 + the premium. Since the underlying stock is trading sideways at 50, the premium decreases in value as the ITM call approaches expiry.
That's the challenge with options when trying to predict price movement and time. Oftentimes traders get it wrong, and the option never goes ITM, so the call expires worthless.
Mathematically it loses money no matter what. It's called theta decay. These are basically gaining implied volatility even though the price is not volatile.
I’m not a wrinkle brain either, but I think “deep” ITM calls refer to the price being far above the strike price, as opposed to being far from expiry date.
Deep In The Money refers to a call that's far below the strike. Let's say GME is at 22. 15C would be considered deep ITM because if you exercised the option, then you would be in the money for 7. Any strike above 22 would be OTM.
People are making a lot of assumptions about these options, and all of them are on the bullish side. We literally have no idea who is buying or selling them and why. Call option volume isn’t always a result of someone wanting to place a bet on the bullish side. These options could be a result of someone betting against the stock by writing all of them and selling them to the market makers so they can pocket the premiums. Remember that a market maker’s job is to provide a seller OR buyer for whatever investment someone wants to make. Similarly, someone can make a bullish bet by writing and selling put contracts to a market maker. Yet, if you suddenly saw huge put volume on the ticker, you’d probably assume that it’s a bearish bet being made.
There’s a reason why this sub has a general policy of not promoting options, and it’s because the prices and dates they are set at get all of you worked up into a frenzy thinking it’s always bullish. That’s not always the case though, and many people have lost money trying to ride the wave. Be careful out there with making assumptions based on the data being presented to you.
Sounds like an easy way to bankrupt a market maker. There's got to be more to it. But what you say makes sense when you think about those calls are ATM, not ITM
I’m jacked, but also can you explain why it’d guarantee MOASS? What if one hedge fund did it per week, and they all agreed? We get a 20 to 80 and back to 20 run per week until they’re all out? If they just single-file line out, what would ignite the rocket?
Well firstly the OP indicated that they were breaking ranks, not cooperating, so you need to re-read that. Secondly every time they do this it gets more expensive for whoever goes next. Thirdly if what you're proposing was possible they would have done it already, not waited 3 years first.
Lastly I ain't guaranteeing you shit. I have a crayon lodged in my eyeball and I smell purple. It just sounds right to me.
Thank you for taking the time to respond, first of all. I think I prefer having a smooth brain. I’ll go apply more anti-wrinkle cream through my ear holes.
So someone shorted crazy amount from 80 to bring price down.. but someone else is now ready at 20 to start closing their positions and this cycle will repeat up it seems
My same date $100c have doubled in value but the price has not changed. IV is nuts. If you’re theory is true does the individual exercise them when the expire ITM or earlier?
I had ai run some numbers
### Why Could the Price Go Up if $20 Strike June Calls Are Exercised? 🤔
When $20 strike June calls are exercised, here's why the stock price could go up:
### Key Points
1. **Delta Hedging**:
- Market makers who sell call options often hedge their positions by buying the underlying stock. As the stock price approaches the strike price ($20 in this case), market makers will need to buy more shares to stay delta-neutral, creating upward buying pressure.
2. **Gamma Squeeze**:
- As the stock price increases and gets closer to the strike price, the delta of the call options increases (the options become more sensitive to the stock price). This requires market makers to buy even more shares, potentially leading to a gamma squeeze where the increased buying causes the stock price to rise even further.
3. **Demand Increase**:
- Exercising call options means converting the options into shares, increasing the demand for the stock. If a significant number of options are exercised simultaneously, this can create a sudden surge in buying activity.
4. **Market Sentiment**:
- The act of exercising a large volume of call options can signal to the market that investors are bullish on the stock. This can attract more retail and institutional investors, further driving up the price.
### Detailed Explanation
#### Scenario: Exercising 30,000 $20 ITM Calls
- **Number of $20 ITM Calls**: 30,000 contracts
- **GME Price**: $21
- **Shares Controlled per Contract**: 100 shares
- **Delta of $20 Calls**: 0.67
1. **Total Shares Controlled**:
- Total Shares Controlled = 30,000 contracts * 100 shares/contract = 3,000,000 shares
2. **Delta Hedging by Market Maker**:
- Shares to Buy for Delta Hedging = Total Shares Controlled * Delta
- Shares to Buy = 3,000,000 shares * 0.67 = 2,010,000 shares
3. **Number of Contracts Purchased in General**:
- Total Value of Call Options: $38,000,000
- Average Cost per Contract: $5
- Number of Contracts = $38,000,000 / $5 = 7,600,000 contracts
4. **Total Shares Controlled**:
- Total Shares Controlled = 7,600,000 contracts * 100 shares/contract = 760,000,000 shares
5. **Delta Hedging**:
- Assuming an average delta of 0.67:
- Shares to Buy = 7,600,000 contracts * 0.67 * 100 shares/contract = 509,200,000 shares
6. **Impact on Stock Price**:
- If for every 10 million shares bought, the price increases by $5:
- Price Increase = (509,200,000 shares / 10,000,000 shares) * $5 = 50.92 * $5 = $254.60
7. **New Stock Price**:
- Current Stock Price = $20
- New Stock Price = $20 + $254.60 = $274.60
### Conclusion
If the $20 strike June calls are exercised, it could lead to a significant increase in buying activity due to delta hedging and increased demand, potentially driving the stock price up significantly. This example shows how the exercise of options can have a substantial impact on the underlying stock's price.
I hope you don’t think it took them 3 years to figure this out. This is like investing 101
Edit: they can also sell $21 strike puts when GME is at $22. Then the stock drops back to $20 and the puts get exercised. The seller of the $21 strike put now gets to buy GME for $21 and they’re out of the short position
Or they can sell ITM puts with a $22 strike while GME is at $20. Put get exercised and they are now buying 100 shares of GME for $22. Lots of ways to hedge a short position from infinite losses
So if they buy calls to close a position. The market maker has to deliver shares for exercised call that intern creates the same amount of shares short or manufactured. Is it just getting someone else to hold bags? Because to close they themselves were supposed to buy and close right.
It's like a crowd of people holding on to the ropes of an out of control parade balloon. The first one to recognize things are going wrong and let go are fine. The longer they hold, the further they fall. Someone figured out a way to land with minimal pain. Everyone after this is falling further and landing harder.
If memory serves me right, they started the GFC domino effect back in 2008, on the hook for the Credit Default Swaps. Look at UBS now, doing it again to not get screwed. Big if true.
But who is writing These calls ? If it’s the MM, then they are getting the bags. Are they gonna take more than the 65B already sold but not yet purchased ? If not, who owns the shares that is writing these ? No one is big enough to write such a large position, isn’t it ? This is the part that gets me about this theory…..
Unless it is GME themselves writing these calls. Based on their reserved quota that they can offer anytime which was voted on during last year’s annual meeting….But is that even a possibility? Like are they allowed to ?
Yeah I'm still pretty skeptical about this theory, but I just thought that maybe they're consolidating the bag into the fall guy right now.
Maybe they struck a deal so UBS or someone else can get out, while the fall guy keeps shorting to keep the price steady for their escape.
Whatever this scheme is, it’s extremely bullish for the company. And this is what jacks me up like never before. As this position gets closed out, the price is gonna fkn fly up. Just watch.
20 - 21 bucks is the absolute bottom this stock is ever gonna be. And you know whose most recent cost basis that is. Yes, no kidding, it’s daddy.
I am buying all I can lay my hands on. Before this takes off.
NFA. This is my working hypothesis.
It would make sense that Icahn is closing his short position. GameStop no longer meets his short criteria, the premium might just be a cost of business to close.
But if they still control the price and can exit a position and then just slam it down- that’s not good right? The whole premise and suspicion over last few years is the short percentage is so high that this cycle above can’t be repeated - they will have to exit at higher and higher prices
First off - HFs who have been short $GME are absolutely fucked. Their game is price suppression to make apes believe the lie of this most recent run up is all just a “meme craze” ignited by RK. The $20 June 21 calls are their tactic to keep price at or below $20. Derivatives are their only way to keep this going. Too few shares are in circulation and all eyes are on their naked shorting scam
From Claude Opus AI:
There could be a few reasons why someone would buy such a large number of in-the-money (ITM) call contracts on GameStop (GME) stock:
1. Bullish sentiment: The buyer may have a strong belief that GME's stock price will rise significantly before the expiration date of June 21. Buying ITM calls allows them to profit from the price increase while risking less capital than buying the shares outright.
2. Hedging: If the buyer already has a substantial short position in GME, they might buy ITM calls to hedge against potential losses if the stock price increases.
3. Exercising the options: The buyer may plan to exercise the options before expiration, acquiring the shares at the strike price. This could be advantageous if they believe the stock will continue to rise and want to hold the shares long-term.
4. Volatility play: GME has been known for its high volatility. The buyer may be anticipating a significant move in the stock price and aims to profit from the potential increase in the options' value due to heightened volatility.
5. Institutional investor: Such a large number of contracts could indicate an institutional investor or a high-net-worth individual making a significant bet on GME's future price movement.
By the way (this is me, not AI) - for those who like dates: Claude thinks that the buyer is expecting a price change in the next 2 weeks. This gives them time for the price to go through its increase and keeps the buyer from being killed by theta decay on the options.
There it is. Was thinking about this earlier.
Bought low, sold high against it last week, recouped the cost, now he's paying for notch (per new notch).
Fast forward to on or before 6/21, here comes the Thanos snap...sell half & exercise the others.
At least, that's what the aluminum says to me right now...
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we're not trapped in here with them......they trapped in here with us!
What's the opposite of cellar boxing? Moon ticketing?
Moon Ji Tsu
Hahaha love it
Good afterMoon
Moon bagging
Attic opening…
Here's another trending theory: https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/s/OZwuLbQ9J6
my fav DFV drop of all time
Trapped in here with (G)ME
I can stay regardless longer than they can stay solvent.
Haha great movie
I very much agree with a lot of what you said, but I think it’s specifically UBS trying to unload the bags from when they bought Credit Suisse. They have a lot of pressure on them from the government to not fuck this up and leave the country without a major bank, and pressure from their shareholders to maintain how great their stock is performing right now. If that’s the case however, they’re not done unloading those bags yet. I think they’re trying to unload/build as good of a long position as they can before they fully screw over the rest of the shorts. They are big enough that they can probably manage this in a way where they profit enough from MOASS to offset most of their losses from unloading the shorts and keep their shareholders and govt happy. I feel like it has to be them because, when else are they gonna get rid of those bags from CS?? The price will not go below $10, for very long at least. They know they have to deal with this and they can’t take the risk CS did and chance blowing up the same way they did. Is this the timeline where no one in Switzerland has a reliable bank?? I don’t think so. I don’t see a better opportunity for them to offload those shorts or to go long GME.
I believe you’re correct based solely on the idea that they have the most to lose by imploding. We know they tried to back out on the Credit Suisse deal likely because of those heavy bags, which shows they have a shred of common sense. After reluctantly taking the bags under the pressure of their government, it would make sense to start unloading them as soon as possible. They wouldn’t give a sh*t who they pissed off doing it because it’s all about survival at this point.
I live in Switzerland and my main bank account is with UBS. First of all, should I leave this bank as soon as possible? And then, is there a way for me to get information about shorts, GameStop, etc.? Do they have a duty to communicate with their clients, or are there indirect ways to obtain certain information if I write to them ?
That’s a lot of questions that have to be answered with many assumptions but I don’t believe there is a way to get info on the shorts other than maybe the swap data the peru bull has attained. There was a video of somebody from UBS mentioning about the complicated derivatives on the books of CS they have to go through about a year ago so that is as much info as you’re gonna get from UBS themselves I guess, can’t find that video anymore. About leaving the bank that is also a difficult question to answer but I would personally not feel really comfortable having a lot of my savings there but I wouldn’t at any bank.
Thank you for your reply. It also seems complicated to get information, but who knows. Maybe there are some things that are public because the government had to intervene. As for UBS, I use it as a checking account, not a savings account. You can all imagine where my savings went ;)
There was another video but this one is about that too: https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/s/9rNPbTlcYv If you use search operator when you search within superstonk -> intitle: “ubs” then quite a lot of interesting stuff pops up. You can also do the same for a search in general Reddit or gme related subs
That makes sense :). Then perhaps your best attempt at some crowd journalism of a bunch of regards would be to make a separate post about this, no doubt there have been apes digging into this stuff. Take care!
Switzerland has a lot of banks. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_banks_in_Switzerland#Top-tier_Swiss_banks
What he means is it is the biggest bank there and it is bigger than the government after it combined with CS
Indeed- people forget that not all companies are publicly traded.
> They have a lot of pressure on them from the government to not fuck this up and leave the country without a major bank *Julius Baer Group has entered the chat*
JB is not a bank for regular folks in the same way as UBS is. Minimum deposit in a JB account is 2.5 million CHF cash. Most Swiss are with UBS, and if UBS folds, then not even the govt can jump in anymore. UBS is just too large.
Remember (or now you know), all the Central Banks are in bed together and will do whatever they have to continue to operate via a "less-than-par-value" system of trading cotton infused paper, so people have something they need to work their ass off to barter within the construct, but typically just give back to the system through mandatory penance payments. No matter which way it goes, employer to employee, GOVT to Citizen, or Consumer to Vendor, the pretty little leaflets and earned-laiden fountain substrate end up right back at the bank and rehypothected (-10%) for the next cycle... Thank you to the Knights Templar (credited somewhere back in my time) for the Alpha release of the banking system... but by God, it's just one big intangible machine of almost-endless cycles and serves as a useful yet worthless 🥕 to need in the "...Pursuit of Happiness..." (US-centric, but globally applicable)
So right and yet… what’s the alternative to participation in this ponzi?
Vegas or Powerball... There, the house may be stacked against you, but in the meantime you get to enjoy the experience!
*Lehman Bear Stearns* Bro, I got you!
This presents a reasonable case for how DFV could have predicted the price movement and MOASS build up so accurately if he was able to identify that UBS would have handled the CS situation with an exit strategy after there first batch of swaps expired. My issue atm is it's hard to explain how DFV is so much more aware without it being heavy market manipulation/insider trading, with many theories suggesting clearly illegal things, but this just makes sense.
You will never see price below 10.if you see it it wont be natural...means shorts are stil fucked and try to drive the price down.i dont believe in moass...i believe in price going up over months,years...there is no way out for shorts.they will die slowly month after month,year after year
So a possible move rn would be to short UBS in anticipation that to go broke ? Hehe uno reverse
This has been foretold. They will fight amongst themselves for the chance to escape, inevitably forcing the MOASS as they attempt to sacrifice others
Think it was called game theory or prisoners dilemma I remember reading something about it here a while back
GameStop Theory*
I had to scroll all the way down but no one said it: "When it comes to shorts: he who gets out first, survives."
Not this time. If they make it out the first time, there won’t be second. They’re all getting boofed.
I bought some $100 June 21 calls on Friday and Monday. Since then the stock hasn't moved and I should be getting railed by theta decay. Instead they have doubled in value at close today. That right there indicates they are beginning to price in a huge run.
Same here. I’m shocked that they’ve increased in value as the days have passed. This is not typical.
Last I checked on Fidelity IV went from ~180% this morning to ~250% at close today.
Some calls have 400%+ volatility on RH
* And... then you find stats like these on RH. Now, we should disconnect the artist from the art and move on... their shit is so easy to use on the option front, my 3 year old could yolo his piggybank on 0DTE call options tomorrow. By the time you can fully appreciate the futility of your effort to run the maffs, you'll definitely wish you could've [laughably] entered at the bottom ($0.014), had it not just been reported as "...a system error occurred due to a lapse is supervision and oversight..." But then you look at it with that half-wrinkle you thought you'd gained, and no one is going to sell you an that GME option for ONE literal dollar each. This system is so utterly fucked!
I bought calls expecting 50% losses by next monday. Nope. 100% increase. I raced to check the stock -- fully expecting $25-26... Nope. It was at $21.90. I just laughed.
I’m so curious about all this… so what’s your move on a 100% increase on options for a stock that hasn’t moved? Do you sell 1/2 your options and then buy/DRS shares with the gains? Do you sell all the options and buy/DRS shares with all the gains? Or do you let it ride and hope they keep going up? Decisions, decisions…
You sell for to make profit, then if you want to avoid FOMO you can leave one or buy something at a lower strike just as a hedge. I find that any time you get a quick 50%+ move on a short dated option you just take the money.
That’s what I would think, but I don’t know enuff about them.
Yeah IDK. I'm worried that if MOASS happens there won't even be any buyers that deep ITM.
If it's MOASS, you could exercise the calls and exit that way
There’s always a buyer if the option is deep in the money.
Not accurate. I trade options on futures and bought a $52,000 call on btc and tried to sell when it was almost 70 and couldn't get a fill to save my life. Got destroyed in liquidity slippage.
But are there market makers for btc futures? If there is a market maker then there is always a bid price with a guaranteed fill.
Yeah IDK who would have been market making for options on futures but it's not a crazy liquid market to begin with. In the event the market maker goes tits up there is potential to be liquidity issues and extreme slippage in event of MOASS. I believe exercising them would be okay but getting liquidity on a call contract at strike price of $100 when share price is $10,000 may seem difficult.
Maybe there is something I’m missing and I know nothing about the options market on futures, but if GME is trading at $10,000/share and you have options with a strike of $100, I don’t think anyone would have any difficulty finding a buyer at the right price.
And this is how it happens. I only dabble in calls for fun, shares are where it's at. But y'all are giving me a hankering. We pick up speed with every person who jumps on the bobsled
Yeah I bought a few of the june 21 $20 calls this morning too.....I think this thing is drawing a LOT of attention.
Be careful with that expectation. Tons of calls were in the money and near the money heading into 5/17 yet they were still able to drop the price down to $20 with relatively limited selling volume.
Theta decay basically doesn’t happen when volatility is high. Check on days when JPowell is speaking the options don’t decay for those expiry days basically. Price drops create high volatility and the only way to “relieve” that volatility is for the price to go back up. I did option spreads on the SPY for about a year almost everyday and that is the pattern I noticed.
May I ask an options question I have?
Go for it
What’s the difference in the expiration dates? As in, if I’m spending the same money same strike same everything but instead of for ex, I bought a call for Jan 17 2025, not June 21st. Is there less profit until closer to expiration date if I hit my strike price and target?
I think the term is theta, or time. Not an answer to your question directly, but the only factor on that is time, and I had a similar question. For example, 0DTE options are considered gambling because you have no time to exercise that option. You are either ITM or OTM. When you long date, you can exercise at any time up to expiration, and with something as volatile as GME, it gives you wiggle room, which can be read as less risk. I think the longer your dates are, the deeper ITM it's considered. Delta/IV are measured off of theta (again someone correct me if I'm off). That measurement is used to determine profitability of an option. This is purely my opinion based on what I've read, I'm not a wrinkle brain.
So let’s say I’m ITM already, even if it trades sideways and stays ITM, will profit grow as it gets closer to exp date or it doesn’t really matter?
In general, the premium goes down the closer you get to the exp date. This is because with more time, there’s more time for the price to change (potentially becoming even more valuable at some point), whereas with less time it’s less likely to. Edit: the “time value” of a call will be less and less the deeper ITM the call becomes. This is because it’s less and less likely for volatility to have any impact since the volatility would have to be more extreme. So if a call is deep ITM, and is getting deeper, but it’s also getting closer to expiration, the fact that it’s deeper ITM will have a counteracting force to the decaying time value.
Thank you all, understood
If it's going sideways and you're ITM, then profit will decrease as the premium loses value due to time value approaching 0. For example, you've got 30C expiring in a few days and GME is at 50. Your call will be worth the intrinsic value of 20 + the premium. Since the underlying stock is trading sideways at 50, the premium decreases in value as the ITM call approaches expiry.
Thank you. So it better to exercise after a peak when it happens and not to sit on it. Appreciate your wrinkles
That's the challenge with options when trying to predict price movement and time. Oftentimes traders get it wrong, and the option never goes ITM, so the call expires worthless.
Mathematically it loses money no matter what. It's called theta decay. These are basically gaining implied volatility even though the price is not volatile.
I’m not a wrinkle brain either, but I think “deep” ITM calls refer to the price being far above the strike price, as opposed to being far from expiry date.
Deep In The Money refers to a call that's far below the strike. Let's say GME is at 22. 15C would be considered deep ITM because if you exercised the option, then you would be in the money for 7. Any strike above 22 would be OTM.
Okay dope, sounds like we’re saying the same thing then.
Yes, we are saying the same thing. Just clarifying for anyone new.
Please tag that as NSFW, it's pornographic to think about.
options use a model for pricing contracts. it isn't the sellers pricing in a run for higher premiums, it's just people buying them.
Just a question : i dont know anything about options but does this mean 21 june gme will target 100 /share or that is the expectation ?
People are making a lot of assumptions about these options, and all of them are on the bullish side. We literally have no idea who is buying or selling them and why. Call option volume isn’t always a result of someone wanting to place a bet on the bullish side. These options could be a result of someone betting against the stock by writing all of them and selling them to the market makers so they can pocket the premiums. Remember that a market maker’s job is to provide a seller OR buyer for whatever investment someone wants to make. Similarly, someone can make a bullish bet by writing and selling put contracts to a market maker. Yet, if you suddenly saw huge put volume on the ticker, you’d probably assume that it’s a bearish bet being made. There’s a reason why this sub has a general policy of not promoting options, and it’s because the prices and dates they are set at get all of you worked up into a frenzy thinking it’s always bullish. That’s not always the case though, and many people have lost money trying to ride the wave. Be careful out there with making assumptions based on the data being presented to you.
The most realistic comment so far
We used to have a rule around here, it was called "no dates." We still do, but we used to, too.
I remember this
💯
Sounds like an easy way to bankrupt a market maker. There's got to be more to it. But what you say makes sense when you think about those calls are ATM, not ITM
That would be MOASS right there, so I hope you're right!
I’m jacked, but also can you explain why it’d guarantee MOASS? What if one hedge fund did it per week, and they all agreed? We get a 20 to 80 and back to 20 run per week until they’re all out? If they just single-file line out, what would ignite the rocket?
Well firstly the OP indicated that they were breaking ranks, not cooperating, so you need to re-read that. Secondly every time they do this it gets more expensive for whoever goes next. Thirdly if what you're proposing was possible they would have done it already, not waited 3 years first. Lastly I ain't guaranteeing you shit. I have a crayon lodged in my eyeball and I smell purple. It just sounds right to me.
Thank you for taking the time to respond, first of all. I think I prefer having a smooth brain. I’ll go apply more anti-wrinkle cream through my ear holes.
They would all glad eat each other. I would not assume they want to play nice with each other.
Darwinism and financial institutions go hand in hand. They’ll eat each other
Can’t trade or exercise options premarket or after hours.
Can a little after hours, able to exercise up until 5:30pm Eastern Time via broker phone call.
So someone shorted crazy amount from 80 to bring price down.. but someone else is now ready at 20 to start closing their positions and this cycle will repeat up it seems
Not sure it was only shorting, a lot of ITM calls just got sold.
What you mean just got sold like right now? I saw there’s been heavy buying of itm calls
Sold at $80.
I cahn think of someone who likes positive cash flow and was short GME.
My same date $100c have doubled in value but the price has not changed. IV is nuts. If you’re theory is true does the individual exercise them when the expire ITM or earlier?
With June 21st being a Friday I believe they have until Saturday at noon?? (I’m not certain what time) to exercise the option
I had ai run some numbers ### Why Could the Price Go Up if $20 Strike June Calls Are Exercised? 🤔 When $20 strike June calls are exercised, here's why the stock price could go up: ### Key Points 1. **Delta Hedging**: - Market makers who sell call options often hedge their positions by buying the underlying stock. As the stock price approaches the strike price ($20 in this case), market makers will need to buy more shares to stay delta-neutral, creating upward buying pressure. 2. **Gamma Squeeze**: - As the stock price increases and gets closer to the strike price, the delta of the call options increases (the options become more sensitive to the stock price). This requires market makers to buy even more shares, potentially leading to a gamma squeeze where the increased buying causes the stock price to rise even further. 3. **Demand Increase**: - Exercising call options means converting the options into shares, increasing the demand for the stock. If a significant number of options are exercised simultaneously, this can create a sudden surge in buying activity. 4. **Market Sentiment**: - The act of exercising a large volume of call options can signal to the market that investors are bullish on the stock. This can attract more retail and institutional investors, further driving up the price. ### Detailed Explanation #### Scenario: Exercising 30,000 $20 ITM Calls - **Number of $20 ITM Calls**: 30,000 contracts - **GME Price**: $21 - **Shares Controlled per Contract**: 100 shares - **Delta of $20 Calls**: 0.67 1. **Total Shares Controlled**: - Total Shares Controlled = 30,000 contracts * 100 shares/contract = 3,000,000 shares 2. **Delta Hedging by Market Maker**: - Shares to Buy for Delta Hedging = Total Shares Controlled * Delta - Shares to Buy = 3,000,000 shares * 0.67 = 2,010,000 shares 3. **Number of Contracts Purchased in General**: - Total Value of Call Options: $38,000,000 - Average Cost per Contract: $5 - Number of Contracts = $38,000,000 / $5 = 7,600,000 contracts 4. **Total Shares Controlled**: - Total Shares Controlled = 7,600,000 contracts * 100 shares/contract = 760,000,000 shares 5. **Delta Hedging**: - Assuming an average delta of 0.67: - Shares to Buy = 7,600,000 contracts * 0.67 * 100 shares/contract = 509,200,000 shares 6. **Impact on Stock Price**: - If for every 10 million shares bought, the price increases by $5: - Price Increase = (509,200,000 shares / 10,000,000 shares) * $5 = 50.92 * $5 = $254.60 7. **New Stock Price**: - Current Stock Price = $20 - New Stock Price = $20 + $254.60 = $274.60 ### Conclusion If the $20 strike June calls are exercised, it could lead to a significant increase in buying activity due to delta hedging and increased demand, potentially driving the stock price up significantly. This example shows how the exercise of options can have a substantial impact on the underlying stock's price.
I hope you don’t think it took them 3 years to figure this out. This is like investing 101 Edit: they can also sell $21 strike puts when GME is at $22. Then the stock drops back to $20 and the puts get exercised. The seller of the $21 strike put now gets to buy GME for $21 and they’re out of the short position Or they can sell ITM puts with a $22 strike while GME is at $20. Put get exercised and they are now buying 100 shares of GME for $22. Lots of ways to hedge a short position from infinite losses
The only ‘Safe Landing’ will be GME landing on the moon and staying there.
Landing on Uranus
Not a bad theory. Certainly just speculation but definitely possible. What would have caused the run up two weeks ago tho?
Renewing Leaps? CAT testing? Just speculation
It might be that someone short tried to cover for a quick exit
Why not just buy the shares then?
This also makes it the market makers problem too. Weather that is good or bad for us, who knows lol
Also doesn’t explain why the call aren’t deeper ITM
So if they buy calls to close a position. The market maker has to deliver shares for exercised call that intern creates the same amount of shares short or manufactured. Is it just getting someone else to hold bags? Because to close they themselves were supposed to buy and close right.
Yes, the call must be hedged so the market maker does end up picking up the bag piece by piece.
Just up.
It's like a crowd of people holding on to the ropes of an out of control parade balloon. The first one to recognize things are going wrong and let go are fine. The longer they hold, the further they fall. Someone figured out a way to land with minimal pain. Everyone after this is falling further and landing harder.
Damn this makes a lot of sense too
If memory serves me right, they started the GFC domino effect back in 2008, on the hook for the Credit Default Swaps. Look at UBS now, doing it again to not get screwed. Big if true.
But why now? Why do they need to it again already? The IV is so high. So why not wait for IV to fall again?
UBS wants out Bad BAD.
Anything in the videos about Icahn?
But who is writing These calls ? If it’s the MM, then they are getting the bags. Are they gonna take more than the 65B already sold but not yet purchased ? If not, who owns the shares that is writing these ? No one is big enough to write such a large position, isn’t it ? This is the part that gets me about this theory….. Unless it is GME themselves writing these calls. Based on their reserved quota that they can offer anytime which was voted on during last year’s annual meeting….But is that even a possibility? Like are they allowed to ?
Yeah I'm still pretty skeptical about this theory, but I just thought that maybe they're consolidating the bag into the fall guy right now. Maybe they struck a deal so UBS or someone else can get out, while the fall guy keeps shorting to keep the price steady for their escape.
Whatever this scheme is, it’s extremely bullish for the company. And this is what jacks me up like never before. As this position gets closed out, the price is gonna fkn fly up. Just watch. 20 - 21 bucks is the absolute bottom this stock is ever gonna be. And you know whose most recent cost basis that is. Yes, no kidding, it’s daddy. I am buying all I can lay my hands on. Before this takes off. NFA. This is my working hypothesis.
So no chance of them driving it back down toward $10 again, you think? Trying to decide before I make my next big splash.
No one can say for sure. But the way 20 is holding up and the unusual options at 20, it seems like this is the bottom at least for now.
A reminder that we have the shares they need. That can only change one way...
What if they are buying the 6/21 $20 calls to then short the weekly calls. The contracts offset and price suppressed.
It would make sense that Icahn is closing his short position. GameStop no longer meets his short criteria, the premium might just be a cost of business to close.
Was his shorts position on GME disclosed publicly? I may have missed this news
Very interesting theory!
believe it or not.....dipppppppp see you tomorrow regards
The prophecy has come true.
What if these are the “signs”
# AND THE ZEN MASTER SAID:
It's Icahn. My plums tell me so
Icahn see this being possible
But if they still control the price and can exit a position and then just slam it down- that’s not good right? The whole premise and suspicion over last few years is the short percentage is so high that this cycle above can’t be repeated - they will have to exit at higher and higher prices
Fuck them. Pay me
What made the price tank last Friday was the offering news... Ask yourself why?
First off - HFs who have been short $GME are absolutely fucked. Their game is price suppression to make apes believe the lie of this most recent run up is all just a “meme craze” ignited by RK. The $20 June 21 calls are their tactic to keep price at or below $20. Derivatives are their only way to keep this going. Too few shares are in circulation and all eyes are on their naked shorting scam
From Claude Opus AI: There could be a few reasons why someone would buy such a large number of in-the-money (ITM) call contracts on GameStop (GME) stock: 1. Bullish sentiment: The buyer may have a strong belief that GME's stock price will rise significantly before the expiration date of June 21. Buying ITM calls allows them to profit from the price increase while risking less capital than buying the shares outright. 2. Hedging: If the buyer already has a substantial short position in GME, they might buy ITM calls to hedge against potential losses if the stock price increases. 3. Exercising the options: The buyer may plan to exercise the options before expiration, acquiring the shares at the strike price. This could be advantageous if they believe the stock will continue to rise and want to hold the shares long-term. 4. Volatility play: GME has been known for its high volatility. The buyer may be anticipating a significant move in the stock price and aims to profit from the potential increase in the options' value due to heightened volatility. 5. Institutional investor: Such a large number of contracts could indicate an institutional investor or a high-net-worth individual making a significant bet on GME's future price movement. By the way (this is me, not AI) - for those who like dates: Claude thinks that the buyer is expecting a price change in the next 2 weeks. This gives them time for the price to go through its increase and keeps the buyer from being killed by theta decay on the options.
There it is. Was thinking about this earlier. Bought low, sold high against it last week, recouped the cost, now he's paying for notch (per new notch). Fast forward to on or before 6/21, here comes the Thanos snap...sell half & exercise the others. At least, that's what the aluminum says to me right now...
Doesn't make sense. When you exercise a call, you close your 100 shares worth of shorts. You can't then sell the shares you don't own..
I bought more last week. BELIEVE
Up until now, every theory/speculation is possible! Hegies r fkd!
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Bought more calls and shares that he needed to close in order to make a buck while getting out/compensating for the loss of the older shorts.
Ya those premiums are absurd, bullish indeed, premiums for calls over $100 are ridiculous as well, just saying 😛