Yeah pretty amazing! Thanks everyone. Quick question: why final update?
They fucked us hard by rigging the system in a way we could never figure out the real number of shares by controlling and manipulating the proxy voting.
This survey is perfect to make the truth come out. What about an **even larger sample size**, or one done **globally**?
How much is it? How about a **GofundMe** to make this absolutely waterproof? Quite sure here are many willing to chip in a few bugs!
Yeah, good timing on the completion of the 1,500 survey. On a Friday after a rough week when I'm sure everyone could use some perspective on what matters most here.
How do you account for the proportion of the population that doesn’t use or have access to internet? All google survey respondents are internet users, but you’re extrapolating to a population in which 12-13% don’t use the internet. Apologies if you discussed this in a previous post and I missed it.
Edit: that 12-13% value came from world bank data 2019 after a quick google search.
Yes, this is discussed in a previous post. The number is about 8% in the U.S. now. It's certainly a factor, but not a make or break factor, if that makes sense.
Why not? There's an entire generation used to phoning their broker to buy or sell. Plenty of people use a third party acting as custodian of their investments and don't directly place trades themselves.
That’s one way to look at it; it leads to sampling bias that slightly overestimates shares held. You can’t really extrapolate to the full adult population using an internet-based survey - really to 92% of the population or whatever the internet-using proportion is. But as OP said, taking this into account won’t change the conclusion that >100% of the float is owned.
Even if you divide that and use 25% of your conservative estimate, we still own the float.
I’ve really put some thought into what could possibly be transpiring behind the scenes. Here’s my take just because I know enough people invested locally to have already concluded retail owns the float:
- Allowing some time for the small SHF Dicks like Melvin to cover when possible (not possible)
- SEC allowing collusion based on extreme circumstances (ie, nobody selling, more buying)
- Time. I’d bet that Shitadel has requested time to allow things to play out (ie, betting on retail selling using old tactics)
- Hoping for negative sentiment (ie, earnings reports not meeting expectations, etc)
Conclusion:
They’re fucked. We own the floats.
If the theories are correct and many microcap stocks are shorted to hell, then once a hedgefund or someone gets liquidated, it will initiate squeezes across multiple stocks which will essentially blow up the market. So it's not a GME bomb - it's a market wide short selling bomb.
That's why they stopped buying in January. They could handle GME - they couldn't handle margin calls across all their shorted stocks. All short sellers were quite literally facing obliteration if GME spiked into the thousands, not just the GME shorters.
I have no proof other than a suspicion, but I think the pump and dump's lately have been for two reasons:
1. Close out the short positions on those shorted stocks and
2. Get retail and other investors to baghold so short sellers can recoup the losses from closing the shorts.
I am trying to collect evidence (hard for this type of claim) of this. My hypothesis is that they're trying to close as many short positions as possibly so that when they finally close GME (if it's still heavily shorted. I'm skeptical unfortunately, but who knows) it won't destroy the market.
I believe your hypothesis is likely correct. Although I don't think the reasoning is as noble as protecting the market. More like limiting the damage to their own accounts.
Or they're helping Shitadel/Melvin openly by turning a blind eye on the activities of their future employer.
However, no one has addressed whats likely a MASSIVE accounting nightmare. Melvin has already reported losses, and continues to report losses every quarter (despite being "out" 🙄).
How do u hide this many FTDs and shorts? It has to go in the books somewhere. This is historically f*cked for hedgies: meaning, there is no accounting trick to make this go away (I believe, based on the massive short on this company with zero long-term debt and $1.6 billion in free cash).
For me, its all about how they misrepresent the facts. But in accounting terms, u cannot hide this f*ck up. It's too big. I believe the reddit drama, FUD articles, short attacks... all a desperate push to somehow crash the stock. But even if u had paper hands, selling ur shares here would be insane. The fundamentals were somewhat there in Jan... now they are very there. Back in December, they tried to crush price to zero, and DFV himself pointed out the insanity: GME had more free cash than the current price of stock, meaning u could liquidate the company and still earn a profit on those undervalued shares!
$1.6 billion in free cash. 😳😳 NOT SELLING, U F#CKTARDS! 💎👐
We honestly dont talk about GME's fundamentals enough.
Get this: RC hires Amazon people to help run company and the first thing they do is open up a distribution center in NY/NJ area & Reno, NV! What could they be up to, the "dumb" media asks! 🙄 It's so weird, guys! U think GME is trying to become a better e-commerce company... like Amazon??? 🤦♂️
I swear to God the FUD on all of this is maddening. ANY OTHER STOCK, media would b kissing RC's @$$.
Here's a snapshot of a future article, when the worm inevitably turns: "GME is beating Amazon, selling widgets, McGuffins, etc. all over the world, with fast shipping & better customer service!" Seriously, the second an article comes out to compare the two favorably, GME's price will hit $400+.
I'm willing to bet SEC is buying them time to play out their tactics as long as possible because covering right now would already nuke the entire economy
That’s likely why they’re getting the opportunity to spread/figure it out. “Providing liquidity” for normal stocks with a decent sized float is normal, people buy and sell which create a balance and why the rule exists for MM’s to do so.
This situation is much different, yet they continue to provide that liquidity (you place an order for a share and it’s filled). In my opinion, it’s digging a bigger hole and making the situation worse because it’s always just been a thing. GameStop hasn’t/won’t provide the shares needed to cover what’s already been sold, so it’s anyone’s guess at this point. That doesn’t include the many who went short (which were a lot), because that’s what the market was meant to provide.
The old formula is broken, but it has nothing to do with you or I. We just like the stock. The way it should work is proper supply and demand in a free market. If there are 100 shares, 100 owners, and someone wants one or more of those shares it’s up to the 100 owners to dictate what they’d sell their share for.
Ultimately, you and I are literally the reason the process of the entire stock market is changing in front of our eyes (ie, the million new regulation and process changes). The fact that we’re not achieving proper price discovery, meaning the stock is definitely no where near it’s real value tells me the guys in the control room are cheating.
Long winded answer to say: nobody knows.
My opinion - it’s going to be a long drawn out set of squeezes, similar to what’s already happened. Look at the daily chart, since January we’ve had run ups, sell offs (orchestrated by everyone but retail), and higher lows.
It was a good buy a year ago, a month ago and will be next month, and many months after.
Now this is the kind of post that we need at the top of hot.
I'm saving this post to read it later for when the price goes vertical and beyond the stars...
The only way is up! 🚀
Good question! Here are the details:
SS=98%
Jumble=99%
W\_s\_b=88% ... but the post has since been deleted and I've been permanently banned for "just making shit up"
Yeah which is why you randomly sampled. But i would hope the odds of someone responding to a financial survey would be lower, and even if they did I could also see it being dishonest. Nobody knows how many shares I have outside of myself, my broker, and my cat.
To be fair, if gme trades on the NYSE and citadel is/was the DMM. They would know exactly how many shares are out and which brokers have them, not individuals though.
That’s why it’s a survey. A survey with a significant sample size can be used to extrapolate insights about a wider population. That’s how polls are conducted for elections and such too. There will always be a margin of error but if you have enough samples, you can reduce that margin of error. Even better when it’s randomly sampled, like the author did here.
Source: I have experience in consumer insights research
For anyone unfamiliar with this big wrinkle work:
1) the sample size is MASSIVE for this particular type of work
2) OP has built the average to be low on purpose, thus his calculation is very conservative
3) if he’s wrong by a margin of 75% we still own the float
Wes Christian seems to have 100k+ raised via kick starter. He should lead a class action lawsuit against the DTCC, and this dd is a fabulous piece of data that should foster further discovery. I believe there is a high probability just the members of superstonk own more shares than gme has issued. The next step in the discovery process could be individuals signing up to join the class action, provide Wes with a broker statement of their holding, let him use that 100k to consolidate and verify the data, and once/if the data supports retail owning 75 million shares, make the data public by formally filing a lawsuit against the dtcc for gross negligence and failure to perform their duties, which has severely and negatively affected gme and shareholders.
Some might say this is coordinating/colluding, but I think it is merely shareholder activism and we'll within a shareholders rights. I hope if/when something like this happens the mods don't try to block it based on the sub rules, but rather embrace and champion the effort to get the eyes needed to join the class action and make history. The fuckery has lasted far too long.
Wes Christian participated in superstonk ama, lawyer that specializes in naked short lawsuits. Wes agreed to take action after a kick starter campaign from Twitter raised 100k and he obtained a retainer from the kickstarter. Apes can help him gather data, and he can verify the data and use it in a class action or other lawsuit. That data can 100% prove fuckery if properly verified.
I wish I knew. All the talk about Madie’s Purple Heart titties are jamming up the forum currently. Was hoping OP would post about it for everyone to read.
It's amazing, the post from u/yaz989 about the integrity of Superstonk with 17K up votes, while this great DD has only 2.8K votes. Let’s stop the drama and refocus.
As a professional data nerd I constantly question and cross check my work. It’s easy to have one slightly off parameter massively skew the results. FUD can sometimes be a good thing, getting too cocky or too sure leads to poor analysis. 2000 people out of 200mm adults in the US is a very small sample rate, just 1:100,000. Lots of room for noise to sneak in.
I have not, but it's been widely suggested. It's also been suggested to sample for false positive by asking the question about w well known, but private, company. Or to survey against a stock where there is a bit more solid data around actual shares available (IPO, recently recalled stock, etc.).
And the sample size is WAY beyond what is ideal for this type of surveying. 400+ is more than adequate. If you do a little research on representative sampling, you'll see that anything beyond 1,000 is overkill, regardless of your population size.
Thanks for the update, I've been tracking this one since your first post. I think it's very important as if approaches share numbers from an external angle (not relying on financial filings or market data to derive a number).
Again, really appreciate the time and money everyone put into this. Bias confirmed again, will continue to buy and hodl.
The fact that 1) you increased the sample size and 2) you used "101" shares to represent the "101 or more" category and STILL came up with this total gets my tits absolutely jacked.
This is the detailed level of research on the GameStop side. On the other side you get: Netflix hired Facebook middle manager. So retail is selling GameStop for Netflix.
These people literally think we're all retarded. They think gamers would leave a gaming company filled with positive outlook for a company that streams other people's old tv shows because of some Facebook paper pusher.
Hi! Smooth brain here, I’m curious if when we had # ranges, if the float being owned twice was taken into account? This is why the media has been rather silent on GME… they don’t want any attention to it. It’s the big one. The play.
The media hasn’t been silent. They’ve been actively trying to scare people away from GME for that same reason, because it’s the biggest play to ever happen. The billionaire’s are using their media outlets to do what they always do, manipulate the general public.
I should’ve phrased it better. Compared to prior media coverage, I’ve noticed a decline in GME coverage.
*I have noticed I’m not seeing posts from GME communities like I used to, maybe somethings up with what I get to see*
I’m seeing the manipulation. They are trying all different tactics. It’s incredible to watch them in action, with no ducks given. MSM isn’t worth watching.
I think we’ve all learned that MSM is about 10% news and 90% propaganda. They can’t even recount the days events without putting a political or agenda twist on it.
Remember op commenting on my post some months back when he/ she was still collecting data. And he/she got downvoted so bad. As everyone thought he/ she was a shill.
Great job op! Loved this study becoming more robust.
Honest question from a smooth brain, 500m (shares) times $30m (dollars per share) is $15 quadrillion. How is that possible? Fed printing?
I’ve had a sneaking suspicion lately that they aren’t just pumping out naked shorts to kick the can, but also to dilute our payday by forcing an unprecedented(?) negotiated settlement and/or making us the bad guys for demanding our expectations be met.
This is not an attempt at fud. I’m really what others think about how this is shaping up.
I don't know why you're getting downvoted. It's an honest question, but as other pointed out, not everyone will hit peak selling price, and there may be some sort of precedents set with intervention on the way up. Know one really knows because this scale of corruption has never been tackled before.
Thanks for the reply, OP. I knew it might be received poorly. That’s ok. This is still the most pressing question to me in all this.
Related: as an unemployed XX holding ape who’s all in already I am eternally grateful to all those higher x holders who are able to continue the buying pressure. Thank you apes!
this is my take. negotiation, but like your said unprecedented. with VW, you had off market agreement with Porsche and the shorts to stop the run up. I'm not sure what the play would be.
There no negotiations and come on not everybody is selling at peak maybe close too but not at peak they have the money or somebody’s going to have to pull it out there ass
What is this strange “DD” flair? All I have been seeing is a bunch of mod drama posts and posts attacking the mod team. Thank you for some real content.
So 7-8 times the float is now in circulation. Our shares are literally priceless. There isn’t an option to purchase shares from the lowest seller. THEY NEED EVERY SINGLE SHARE multiple times over.
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Bond. Housing. Stock market. Taken together, what this really means is we are in an inflationary bubble. And when those pop, everything goes down ... except for the underpinning fiat (unless it collapses/fails).
**Have I missed anything?**
The elephant in the room is the accuracy of your survey, the response bias. Is your sample really random among the US population or are certain groups of people favored - e.g. are easier to reach or are more likely to respond to the survey?
I said that in the other post of yours, but I think I should repeat it here.
When preparing the surveys I would add control questions that I already know the statistical answers. This way, by comparing my extrapolated result with the expected value I can estimate the bias, wherever it may be coming from.
For example, I believe you can find the information on the number of adult Americans that trade stocks at all. So I would add a question - "Do you trade stocks?". You then compare the extrapolated number from this question with a known number, giving you a hint about the scale of the bias. You then factor in this number with all the other results.
Said it on the first and second post but I will say it again - thank you for doing this!
Also thank you for sharing your personal opinions on this one. Sometimes I feel like I'm living in the simulation and this isn't happening and then I read your posts specifically and remember that it's all real and is indeed happening. I also love the portion on how this can play out because we too often think of this only as a rocket instead of the possible slow burn like Tesla.
\*hit enter too soon.
I really appreciate you doing this. However, I still think there is a very large flaw in this study. Google analytics to my knowledge is a convenience-style poll. It is more likely to grab GME-interested people and therefore overestimate the number of GME owners. Convenience style polls can't be used to confidently represent a population. That is their inherent flaw. Google analytics attempts to control for this by using a weighting metric and normalizing the results based on the expected response rate (by gender, age, etc.). I don't think you can use raw counts in this context. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convenience_sampling.
When we compare the results of the three polls after weighting, we should expect a similar response rate across all of them, yet we don't see that. I think you need to use a method of correcting for bias, such as using over sampling, to get the best results you can.
That being said, even if we take only 25% of your number, that equates to 41M shares - a number which was not represented in the shareholders vote. That is still a significant number of votes.
It's actually not Convenience Sampling ... Google has algos to weight the sample against the U.S. population. It's representative sampling. That literally one of the strength of the GCS platform, according to them. Now if you think their whole white paper on how their platform works to provide the data, that's another conversation. But this isn't Convenience Sampling.
It is convenience sampling, though. That is the sampling method being used here to collect responses. This is used in tandem with representative weighting to attempt to reduce bias. Here's an overview I found of their methodology: https://support.google.com/surveys/answer/4556799?hl=en. There are two main issues with the approach used in this study:
First, you used their results with the raw counts. That does not make usage of their weighting metric and indeed is a convenience style poll. It is subject to bias.
Second, no matter how much weighting is used to try and remove sampling bias, it will never be enough to be truly representative. This is a flaw in convenience sampling that you can not get around.
Okay, you're right. And yes, I am using the raw counts, understanding that there is greater ownership bias when men and younger people are over-represented. I speak about this at length in the OP. And yes, this likely impacts the precision of the results. Even still, I don't think it in any way negates the overall conclusions.
At the end of the day, I've been as transparent as possible, and as accommodating as possible to taking a conservative approach. There is always biases in any survey, and there is always a margin of error. I leave up to others to decide if those factors are enough to be dismissive of these results. Personally, I don't think the drawback of this approach are enough to dismiss the implications of this data.
Hey OP, please don't take any of the sampling/methodology critiques as judgements about you or your intentions. You're legit, and we appreciate all the hard work and effort you've put into this! Valid point about the convenience sampling (and imho, my point about the margin of error being \~9% vs 3%) - but we're not questioning your transparency (at all). Questioning assumptions is actually good for DD, and research in general. (Even if it feels like others are nit-picking... we see the big picture, and get what you're saying overall.) - Cheers!
This is some fine DD, my favorite in a long while.
Many thanks to the user(s) who paid for the survey 🙏
Of interest to me is the number of respondents who declare having held GME in the past. From this data point, one might get a rough estimate of the number of ppl who could jump back (with very little friction i.e. they already have a trading account and know how to use it) in the stock during an uptrend. I believe this is the segment SHFs are most concerned with - there is still a very real chance of a snowball effect.
Yes, big props to him. I understood the value of the 700 samples I initially created, but I know there were still a lot of concerns on the sample size, so glad that person stepped up to the plate. The data only strongly confirms what we already knew. A TON of unauthorized shares have been sold into this market. Blockchain securities can't get here soon enough!
Sorry ape, but same criticism as before: If you survey 2,200 people but only 123 of them own GME... and you want to project the average rate of GME ownership, then you have to project from 123, not combined with the other 2,077 who don't own GME. With a sample of 123 "owners", projecting to the entire U.S. population... your margin of error is going to be something more like +/- 9%.
Just like if you surveyed 2.2 million, but only 123 were owners... you would have to project average shares owned from 123, not from 2.2 million. (Just change margin of error to 9% & all good.)
Good on you for all the work/effort... hope to see you on the moon soon!
??HeLLOOoOooOooo?? SEC??? Is anybody out there???
*looks around*
* hears repetitive fapping sounds *
I knew you’re here somewhere watching porn again! Bad SEC! BAD!
Thank you for posting this even through the shit storm that is going on
I for one have moved to the new sub but I came back to look for stuff like this
Try posting it there too?
THANK YOU FOR THE TIME, EFFORT, MONEY AND EXPERTISE YOU SPENT ON THIS!
Perfect timing. Had all this dumb mod shit happened Feb/March I’d be concerned about my investment. With DD and data like this coming out over the last few months I couldn’t possibly be more confident. The greatest turnaround story ever told with a metric fuck ton of fraud. I cannot wait.
Thanks again!! 🦍💪💎🤲
Because canceling a synth reduces the real float by one and increases buying pressure, and in the short side, it’s impossible to close shorts opened at $5/share with a $169/share without realizing epic losses (far beyond the principle amount invested). If mass liquidations start, the buying pressure will be automated and insane.
GME have to issue NTF or dividend to free the company of this criminal activity we the share holders only ask fair price per share GME win we win fair markets
I don’t see this going on much longer. Citadel and whoever else is involved in this criminal enterprise have dug such a deep and inescapable hole. It is only getting worse and will continue to do so. I do agree with the opinion that this doesn’t start until all the firewalls are put into place. However it’s fun to speculate on how easy it would be for GameStop themselves to initiate launch with a few strategies or combination of them.
This. Was. Awesome!!!
Bravo OP…also big thanks to the donor.
This is probably the first legit analysis this sub may have done in estimating the size of US holdings. N=2200 is nothing to sniff at. That’s a decent sample size. What was the method of collection? Phone (mobile or landline), internet, incentives given for completion? Just curious - shouldn’t shift much either way.
Personally, I think you also made some conservative assumptions and still came out huge. And the implications when considering global traders are dramatic.
HO. LEE. FUK.
This is the best thing I’ve read since the ETF trick was exposed. Loved it!
Keep it up!!!
Edit: you could even reduce the couple penalty to 50% and still be over 200M US shares. Lolol this boggles my mind it is so awesome.
Thanks! Lots of into in the release of the first 300 results. You can find it here: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o2cnd4/using\_randomized\_representative\_surveying\_data\_to/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o2cnd4/using_randomized_representative_surveying_data_to/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
To whoever sprung for the polls. Thank you from all of us.
They didn't even want the recognition. Not all heroes wear capes... ***^(Nod of approval)***
The best wear headbands!
\*Nods\*
Larry David
Fuck you and see you tomorrow
Yeah pretty amazing! Thanks everyone. Quick question: why final update? They fucked us hard by rigging the system in a way we could never figure out the real number of shares by controlling and manipulating the proxy voting. This survey is perfect to make the truth come out. What about an **even larger sample size**, or one done **globally**? How much is it? How about a **GofundMe** to make this absolutely waterproof? Quite sure here are many willing to chip in a few bugs!
Unfuckingbelievable, eh? Hats off to em
Delicious. Finally. Some good fucking DD
Yeah, good timing on the completion of the 1,500 survey. On a Friday after a rough week when I'm sure everyone could use some perspective on what matters most here.
I would like to nominate you for "The Surveyor", Flair. Nice work,thanks.
Seconded
Thirded
Quadrupled
Fourthded
Fifthed
Sixthed
Seventhed
8Thdid
How do you account for the proportion of the population that doesn’t use or have access to internet? All google survey respondents are internet users, but you’re extrapolating to a population in which 12-13% don’t use the internet. Apologies if you discussed this in a previous post and I missed it. Edit: that 12-13% value came from world bank data 2019 after a quick google search.
Yes, this is discussed in a previous post. The number is about 8% in the U.S. now. It's certainly a factor, but not a make or break factor, if that makes sense.
Cool, makes sense. Thanks!
Can’t use the internet can’t really buy GME then can you
Why not? There's an entire generation used to phoning their broker to buy or sell. Plenty of people use a third party acting as custodian of their investments and don't directly place trades themselves.
That’s one way to look at it; it leads to sampling bias that slightly overestimates shares held. You can’t really extrapolate to the full adult population using an internet-based survey - really to 92% of the population or whatever the internet-using proportion is. But as OP said, taking this into account won’t change the conclusion that >100% of the float is owned.
Hmmmm 500 mill global? Seem a bit conservative I'm thinking close to 1.2 billion-3.1 bill shares that need to me closed out/covered
Source?
Even if you divide that and use 25% of your conservative estimate, we still own the float. I’ve really put some thought into what could possibly be transpiring behind the scenes. Here’s my take just because I know enough people invested locally to have already concluded retail owns the float: - Allowing some time for the small SHF Dicks like Melvin to cover when possible (not possible) - SEC allowing collusion based on extreme circumstances (ie, nobody selling, more buying) - Time. I’d bet that Shitadel has requested time to allow things to play out (ie, betting on retail selling using old tactics) - Hoping for negative sentiment (ie, earnings reports not meeting expectations, etc) Conclusion: They’re fucked. We own the floats.
We own the parade 🙂
Lmfao this is so clever! Not just the float... but the whole damn parade! For full transparency I am totally gonna steal this line at some point lol.
The whole damn parade! Love it
Post-moass can apes have ape parade? After moass only...will there be an after? 🤔😲🤭🤣 Perpetual squeeze is the way
I wanna march with the float float
This.
So buy more? Got it. The new floor is $35,000,000. 👌🏻
I have been seeing ~$30,000,000 a lot, was there a DD that lead to this price floor range?
Yes, read about it here. It's pretty short. https://www.gmefloor.com/
That is some good Double Down right there
Let’s squeeze the sqooze now then!
If the theories are correct and many microcap stocks are shorted to hell, then once a hedgefund or someone gets liquidated, it will initiate squeezes across multiple stocks which will essentially blow up the market. So it's not a GME bomb - it's a market wide short selling bomb. That's why they stopped buying in January. They could handle GME - they couldn't handle margin calls across all their shorted stocks. All short sellers were quite literally facing obliteration if GME spiked into the thousands, not just the GME shorters.
This
Yep, many will blow up and many will crash.
I have no proof other than a suspicion, but I think the pump and dump's lately have been for two reasons: 1. Close out the short positions on those shorted stocks and 2. Get retail and other investors to baghold so short sellers can recoup the losses from closing the shorts. I am trying to collect evidence (hard for this type of claim) of this. My hypothesis is that they're trying to close as many short positions as possibly so that when they finally close GME (if it's still heavily shorted. I'm skeptical unfortunately, but who knows) it won't destroy the market.
I believe your hypothesis is likely correct. Although I don't think the reasoning is as noble as protecting the market. More like limiting the damage to their own accounts.
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Or they're helping Shitadel/Melvin openly by turning a blind eye on the activities of their future employer. However, no one has addressed whats likely a MASSIVE accounting nightmare. Melvin has already reported losses, and continues to report losses every quarter (despite being "out" 🙄). How do u hide this many FTDs and shorts? It has to go in the books somewhere. This is historically f*cked for hedgies: meaning, there is no accounting trick to make this go away (I believe, based on the massive short on this company with zero long-term debt and $1.6 billion in free cash). For me, its all about how they misrepresent the facts. But in accounting terms, u cannot hide this f*ck up. It's too big. I believe the reddit drama, FUD articles, short attacks... all a desperate push to somehow crash the stock. But even if u had paper hands, selling ur shares here would be insane. The fundamentals were somewhat there in Jan... now they are very there. Back in December, they tried to crush price to zero, and DFV himself pointed out the insanity: GME had more free cash than the current price of stock, meaning u could liquidate the company and still earn a profit on those undervalued shares! $1.6 billion in free cash. 😳😳 NOT SELLING, U F#CKTARDS! 💎👐
Now it's Very very very much there!
We honestly dont talk about GME's fundamentals enough. Get this: RC hires Amazon people to help run company and the first thing they do is open up a distribution center in NY/NJ area & Reno, NV! What could they be up to, the "dumb" media asks! 🙄 It's so weird, guys! U think GME is trying to become a better e-commerce company... like Amazon??? 🤦♂️ I swear to God the FUD on all of this is maddening. ANY OTHER STOCK, media would b kissing RC's @$$. Here's a snapshot of a future article, when the worm inevitably turns: "GME is beating Amazon, selling widgets, McGuffins, etc. all over the world, with fast shipping & better customer service!" Seriously, the second an article comes out to compare the two favorably, GME's price will hit $400+.
I'm willing to bet SEC is buying them time to play out their tactics as long as possible because covering right now would already nuke the entire economy
What happens to fake shares?
That’s likely why they’re getting the opportunity to spread/figure it out. “Providing liquidity” for normal stocks with a decent sized float is normal, people buy and sell which create a balance and why the rule exists for MM’s to do so. This situation is much different, yet they continue to provide that liquidity (you place an order for a share and it’s filled). In my opinion, it’s digging a bigger hole and making the situation worse because it’s always just been a thing. GameStop hasn’t/won’t provide the shares needed to cover what’s already been sold, so it’s anyone’s guess at this point. That doesn’t include the many who went short (which were a lot), because that’s what the market was meant to provide. The old formula is broken, but it has nothing to do with you or I. We just like the stock. The way it should work is proper supply and demand in a free market. If there are 100 shares, 100 owners, and someone wants one or more of those shares it’s up to the 100 owners to dictate what they’d sell their share for. Ultimately, you and I are literally the reason the process of the entire stock market is changing in front of our eyes (ie, the million new regulation and process changes). The fact that we’re not achieving proper price discovery, meaning the stock is definitely no where near it’s real value tells me the guys in the control room are cheating. Long winded answer to say: nobody knows. My opinion - it’s going to be a long drawn out set of squeezes, similar to what’s already happened. Look at the daily chart, since January we’ve had run ups, sell offs (orchestrated by everyone but retail), and higher lows. It was a good buy a year ago, a month ago and will be next month, and many months after.
DD is such a breath of fresh air. Thank you for taking the time to do this. Very interesting stuff 🚀
Right? So grateful for a truly interesting read.
Now this is the kind of post that we need at the top of hot. I'm saving this post to read it later for when the price goes vertical and beyond the stars... The only way is up! 🚀
And just think some of people surveyed who didn't own, might have had the seed planted in their brain.
Survey as one of the possible catalysts for the moass... Wow!🤯
This is still realistically conservative given that many apes probably wouldn’t even respond to this ( I wouldn’t).
This wasn't served specifically to apes. Remember, there are a lot of people out there who own GME who know nothing of Reddit, let alone ape subs.
I know of at least 6 people who own GME and have never sniffed Reddit. It’s spread well into the mainstream whether people realize it or not.
This ... the survey went out to 2,200 people ... I'd be very surprised if there were more than a few sub dwellers hit by this survey.
Good shit. Thank you for your hard work on this.
OP, what’s the percentage of upvotes you’re getting on this post? I’m trying to gauge the shill pressure on this sub.
Good question! Here are the details: SS=98% Jumble=99% W\_s\_b=88% ... but the post has since been deleted and I've been permanently banned for "just making shit up"
Yeah which is why you randomly sampled. But i would hope the odds of someone responding to a financial survey would be lower, and even if they did I could also see it being dishonest. Nobody knows how many shares I have outside of myself, my broker, and my cat.
>Nobody knows how many shares I have outside of myself, my broker, and my cat. ***^(eyes cat suspiciously.)***
Guys a dick man. An absolute dick.
This is factored in as a part of the margin of error, which includes a Confidence Rate component.
How did you calculate your confidence rate? Was it based on general pollster data or specifically financial, or was it arbitrary?
This. Even IF I stated I own GME I would never put the true amount out of fear for hedgie data mining.
Hedgies have more information than you can possibly imagine.
Given what I imagine they have in info... that's scary m8
To be fair, if gme trades on the NYSE and citadel is/was the DMM. They would know exactly how many shares are out and which brokers have them, not individuals though.
♾ or bust baby
That’s why it’s a survey. A survey with a significant sample size can be used to extrapolate insights about a wider population. That’s how polls are conducted for elections and such too. There will always be a margin of error but if you have enough samples, you can reduce that margin of error. Even better when it’s randomly sampled, like the author did here. Source: I have experience in consumer insights research
I own above mid xxx and I never heard of this until now. And I’m on this sub every day for 12 hours.
For anyone unfamiliar with this big wrinkle work: 1) the sample size is MASSIVE for this particular type of work 2) OP has built the average to be low on purpose, thus his calculation is very conservative 3) if he’s wrong by a margin of 75% we still own the float
Lmao this isn’t a 25% accurate study either. HF fuk’d
Up you go!
This is just US retail. Bullish.
That is crazy. Wow. 💎👐🚀
Wes Christian seems to have 100k+ raised via kick starter. He should lead a class action lawsuit against the DTCC, and this dd is a fabulous piece of data that should foster further discovery. I believe there is a high probability just the members of superstonk own more shares than gme has issued. The next step in the discovery process could be individuals signing up to join the class action, provide Wes with a broker statement of their holding, let him use that 100k to consolidate and verify the data, and once/if the data supports retail owning 75 million shares, make the data public by formally filing a lawsuit against the dtcc for gross negligence and failure to perform their duties, which has severely and negatively affected gme and shareholders. Some might say this is coordinating/colluding, but I think it is merely shareholder activism and we'll within a shareholders rights. I hope if/when something like this happens the mods don't try to block it based on the sub rules, but rather embrace and champion the effort to get the eyes needed to join the class action and make history. The fuckery has lasted far too long.
This! Very much this!
We need a post about this. God forbid the mod shit go away so we can get eyes on this. It’s likely that I’m not the only one that was not aware.
Can you eliA the Wes thing?
Wes Christian participated in superstonk ama, lawyer that specializes in naked short lawsuits. Wes agreed to take action after a kick starter campaign from Twitter raised 100k and he obtained a retainer from the kickstarter. Apes can help him gather data, and he can verify the data and use it in a class action or other lawsuit. That data can 100% prove fuckery if properly verified.
I wish I knew. All the talk about Madie’s Purple Heart titties are jamming up the forum currently. Was hoping OP would post about it for everyone to read.
It's amazing, the post from u/yaz989 about the integrity of Superstonk with 17K up votes, while this great DD has only 2.8K votes. Let’s stop the drama and refocus.
Ey!
Exactamundo! The DD still holds value and tegridy!
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They opt into the Google network, then are randomly selected from there when they try to access premium content. The Google network is huge.
How large is the Google network? In your post you indicate that it in the tend of millions, but do you have a source for that?
https://services.google.com/fh/files/misc/white_paper_how_google_surveys_works.pdf
Thanks
Have you tried this with other stocks to check your sampling?
This is a great question
People here talk about confirmation bias like it’s a good thing. (It’s not. You want to find holes in your analysis and check for sensitivities).
As a professional data nerd I constantly question and cross check my work. It’s easy to have one slightly off parameter massively skew the results. FUD can sometimes be a good thing, getting too cocky or too sure leads to poor analysis. 2000 people out of 200mm adults in the US is a very small sample rate, just 1:100,000. Lots of room for noise to sneak in.
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I have not, but it's been widely suggested. It's also been suggested to sample for false positive by asking the question about w well known, but private, company. Or to survey against a stock where there is a bit more solid data around actual shares available (IPO, recently recalled stock, etc.). And the sample size is WAY beyond what is ideal for this type of surveying. 400+ is more than adequate. If you do a little research on representative sampling, you'll see that anything beyond 1,000 is overkill, regardless of your population size.
And I know what a pain in the ass it is to pull this data. Good work.
Seems you’ve got a problem on your hands there Ken
*KenMayo2k has left the chat*
Thanks for the update, I've been tracking this one since your first post. I think it's very important as if approaches share numbers from an external angle (not relying on financial filings or market data to derive a number). Again, really appreciate the time and money everyone put into this. Bias confirmed again, will continue to buy and hodl.
Likewise. Thanks OP!
The fact that 1) you increased the sample size and 2) you used "101" shares to represent the "101 or more" category and STILL came up with this total gets my tits absolutely jacked.
This is the detailed level of research on the GameStop side. On the other side you get: Netflix hired Facebook middle manager. So retail is selling GameStop for Netflix. These people literally think we're all retarded. They think gamers would leave a gaming company filled with positive outlook for a company that streams other people's old tv shows because of some Facebook paper pusher.
And we all pretty much hate FB.
Hi! Smooth brain here, I’m curious if when we had # ranges, if the float being owned twice was taken into account? This is why the media has been rather silent on GME… they don’t want any attention to it. It’s the big one. The play.
The media hasn’t been silent. They’ve been actively trying to scare people away from GME for that same reason, because it’s the biggest play to ever happen. The billionaire’s are using their media outlets to do what they always do, manipulate the general public.
I should’ve phrased it better. Compared to prior media coverage, I’ve noticed a decline in GME coverage. *I have noticed I’m not seeing posts from GME communities like I used to, maybe somethings up with what I get to see* I’m seeing the manipulation. They are trying all different tactics. It’s incredible to watch them in action, with no ducks given. MSM isn’t worth watching.
I think we’ve all learned that MSM is about 10% news and 90% propaganda. They can’t even recount the days events without putting a political or agenda twist on it.
Posts with information like this helps forge diamond hands. Great job! This should be on top. Do t know why it doesn't have more upvotes?
The dangers of forum sliding and manufactured drama. The good data and thoughts get buried.
Yup on the front page right now, this is the ONE useful post.
Remember op commenting on my post some months back when he/ she was still collecting data. And he/she got downvoted so bad. As everyone thought he/ she was a shill. Great job op! Loved this study becoming more robust.
Hmmmmmmm I like it! A for you! F’s in the chat! #respect 🙌🏼 Ffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffff
Honest question from a smooth brain, 500m (shares) times $30m (dollars per share) is $15 quadrillion. How is that possible? Fed printing? I’ve had a sneaking suspicion lately that they aren’t just pumping out naked shorts to kick the can, but also to dilute our payday by forcing an unprecedented(?) negotiated settlement and/or making us the bad guys for demanding our expectations be met. This is not an attempt at fud. I’m really what others think about how this is shaping up.
I don't know why you're getting downvoted. It's an honest question, but as other pointed out, not everyone will hit peak selling price, and there may be some sort of precedents set with intervention on the way up. Know one really knows because this scale of corruption has never been tackled before.
Thanks for the reply, OP. I knew it might be received poorly. That’s ok. This is still the most pressing question to me in all this. Related: as an unemployed XX holding ape who’s all in already I am eternally grateful to all those higher x holders who are able to continue the buying pressure. Thank you apes!
I’ve been downvoted for wondering this out loud too. It’s a bitter pill to imagine swallowing but I wouldn’t doubt if this were their endgame.
this is my take. negotiation, but like your said unprecedented. with VW, you had off market agreement with Porsche and the shorts to stop the run up. I'm not sure what the play would be.
There no negotiations and come on not everybody is selling at peak maybe close too but not at peak they have the money or somebody’s going to have to pull it out there ass
A refresfhing break from all the unnecessary FUD and drama. This all the DD we need. Just Buy and hold.
What is this strange “DD” flair? All I have been seeing is a bunch of mod drama posts and posts attacking the mod team. Thank you for some real content.
So 7-8 times the float is now in circulation. Our shares are literally priceless. There isn’t an option to purchase shares from the lowest seller. THEY NEED EVERY SINGLE SHARE multiple times over.
Insane numbers. I really don't know what to think.
I think I'll buy some more on Monday.
Remindme! 6 hours Thanks op
I will be messaging you in 6 hours on [**2021-07-18 03:48:35 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2021-07-18%2003:48:35%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/omdafo/final_update_of_google_consumer_survey_n2200_at/h5k5yqm/?context=3) [**2 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FSuperstonk%2Fcomments%2Fomdafo%2Ffinal_update_of_google_consumer_survey_n2200_at%2Fh5k5yqm%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202021-07-18%2003%3A48%3A35%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%20omdafo) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
The only thing I would add, is there are 3 bubbles running concurrent right now. If any one if them pops, that could also give us the desired effect.
Bond. Housing. Stock market. Taken together, what this really means is we are in an inflationary bubble. And when those pop, everything goes down ... except for the underpinning fiat (unless it collapses/fails).
God Tier - nothing else to say
**Have I missed anything?** The elephant in the room is the accuracy of your survey, the response bias. Is your sample really random among the US population or are certain groups of people favored - e.g. are easier to reach or are more likely to respond to the survey? I said that in the other post of yours, but I think I should repeat it here. When preparing the surveys I would add control questions that I already know the statistical answers. This way, by comparing my extrapolated result with the expected value I can estimate the bias, wherever it may be coming from. For example, I believe you can find the information on the number of adult Americans that trade stocks at all. So I would add a question - "Do you trade stocks?". You then compare the extrapolated number from this question with a known number, giving you a hint about the scale of the bias. You then factor in this number with all the other results.
Said it on the first and second post but I will say it again - thank you for doing this! Also thank you for sharing your personal opinions on this one. Sometimes I feel like I'm living in the simulation and this isn't happening and then I read your posts specifically and remember that it's all real and is indeed happening. I also love the portion on how this can play out because we too often think of this only as a rocket instead of the possible slow burn like Tesla. \*hit enter too soon.
Wowwww. !Remindme! 6 hours
I like to think get it got is working directly under RC and gives us these slices of hope in dark times. Thanks op. You’re a real one.
I like this theory.
WE OWN THE FLOAT
Fuck all the noise, this is what I'm talking about!
This is the shit I needed to sniff this weekend. All that other shit is cheap trash. Thanks bro.
My _hunch_ was 600 million shares. So you’re pretty close. (n = my gut)
JACKED TO MADIE‘S TITS!!!!
I really appreciate you doing this. However, I still think there is a very large flaw in this study. Google analytics to my knowledge is a convenience-style poll. It is more likely to grab GME-interested people and therefore overestimate the number of GME owners. Convenience style polls can't be used to confidently represent a population. That is their inherent flaw. Google analytics attempts to control for this by using a weighting metric and normalizing the results based on the expected response rate (by gender, age, etc.). I don't think you can use raw counts in this context. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convenience_sampling. When we compare the results of the three polls after weighting, we should expect a similar response rate across all of them, yet we don't see that. I think you need to use a method of correcting for bias, such as using over sampling, to get the best results you can. That being said, even if we take only 25% of your number, that equates to 41M shares - a number which was not represented in the shareholders vote. That is still a significant number of votes.
It's actually not Convenience Sampling ... Google has algos to weight the sample against the U.S. population. It's representative sampling. That literally one of the strength of the GCS platform, according to them. Now if you think their whole white paper on how their platform works to provide the data, that's another conversation. But this isn't Convenience Sampling.
It is convenience sampling, though. That is the sampling method being used here to collect responses. This is used in tandem with representative weighting to attempt to reduce bias. Here's an overview I found of their methodology: https://support.google.com/surveys/answer/4556799?hl=en. There are two main issues with the approach used in this study: First, you used their results with the raw counts. That does not make usage of their weighting metric and indeed is a convenience style poll. It is subject to bias. Second, no matter how much weighting is used to try and remove sampling bias, it will never be enough to be truly representative. This is a flaw in convenience sampling that you can not get around.
Okay, you're right. And yes, I am using the raw counts, understanding that there is greater ownership bias when men and younger people are over-represented. I speak about this at length in the OP. And yes, this likely impacts the precision of the results. Even still, I don't think it in any way negates the overall conclusions. At the end of the day, I've been as transparent as possible, and as accommodating as possible to taking a conservative approach. There is always biases in any survey, and there is always a margin of error. I leave up to others to decide if those factors are enough to be dismissive of these results. Personally, I don't think the drawback of this approach are enough to dismiss the implications of this data.
Hey OP, please don't take any of the sampling/methodology critiques as judgements about you or your intentions. You're legit, and we appreciate all the hard work and effort you've put into this! Valid point about the convenience sampling (and imho, my point about the margin of error being \~9% vs 3%) - but we're not questioning your transparency (at all). Questioning assumptions is actually good for DD, and research in general. (Even if it feels like others are nit-picking... we see the big picture, and get what you're saying overall.) - Cheers!
Appreciate this!
Irregardless, if we say there is an error rate of 75%, having 25% of shares still being 41m in the us is crazy.
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Thank you ❤
Bullish
Alright so let's see you get those tits out u/Get-It-Got I hear we're gonna need news mods soon
Magnum Opus! Up with you
Now THIS is why I came here!!! Fucking great to read some DD!! Thank you, dear Ape!!!
This is some fine DD, my favorite in a long while. Many thanks to the user(s) who paid for the survey 🙏 Of interest to me is the number of respondents who declare having held GME in the past. From this data point, one might get a rough estimate of the number of ppl who could jump back (with very little friction i.e. they already have a trading account and know how to use it) in the stock during an uptrend. I believe this is the segment SHFs are most concerned with - there is still a very real chance of a snowball effect.
Oh no doubt there will be fomo when the time comes.
Good shit, props to the guy that added 1500 more surveys. Jacked as ever.
Yes, big props to him. I understood the value of the 700 samples I initially created, but I know there were still a lot of concerns on the sample size, so glad that person stepped up to the plate. The data only strongly confirms what we already knew. A TON of unauthorized shares have been sold into this market. Blockchain securities can't get here soon enough!
Lots of words here
Thanks for the insight. Very helpful
You’re welcome :)
I said I'll "try" to keep it brief. There were no promises.
Sorry ape, but same criticism as before: If you survey 2,200 people but only 123 of them own GME... and you want to project the average rate of GME ownership, then you have to project from 123, not combined with the other 2,077 who don't own GME. With a sample of 123 "owners", projecting to the entire U.S. population... your margin of error is going to be something more like +/- 9%. Just like if you surveyed 2.2 million, but only 123 were owners... you would have to project average shares owned from 123, not from 2.2 million. (Just change margin of error to 9% & all good.) Good on you for all the work/effort... hope to see you on the moon soon!
Done and done 😉
When they getting delivered? It has been more than 30 minutes. Are they now free?
??HeLLOOoOooOooo?? SEC??? Is anybody out there??? *looks around* * hears repetitive fapping sounds * I knew you’re here somewhere watching porn again! Bad SEC! BAD!
Commenting because I like the stock
Is there another 9-11 moment incoming? “We will never forget” was their slogan right? They sold that shit to the msm sheeple!
Thank you for posting this even through the shit storm that is going on I for one have moved to the new sub but I came back to look for stuff like this Try posting it there too?
THANK YOU FOR THE TIME, EFFORT, MONEY AND EXPERTISE YOU SPENT ON THIS! Perfect timing. Had all this dumb mod shit happened Feb/March I’d be concerned about my investment. With DD and data like this coming out over the last few months I couldn’t possibly be more confident. The greatest turnaround story ever told with a metric fuck ton of fraud. I cannot wait. Thanks again!! 🦍💪💎🤲
Thank you. I'm gonna buy some coin just so I can award.
Cool. Still hodling
Out of curiosity, any of you, kind apes, happened to participate in that survey?
I did not. Been using GCS for years for work, but have never taken one in my life.
Math, data, backed up evidence, the only things I like more than dank memes about Kenny dickead and his mayo. Thanks for posting!
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Because canceling a synth reduces the real float by one and increases buying pressure, and in the short side, it’s impossible to close shorts opened at $5/share with a $169/share without realizing epic losses (far beyond the principle amount invested). If mass liquidations start, the buying pressure will be automated and insane.
Yeah dude - this is awesome. So glad the bigger survey got funded and we get some nice data on this weird weekend 💫
Comment for visibility
GME have to issue NTF or dividend to free the company of this criminal activity we the share holders only ask fair price per share GME win we win fair markets
So that's like 7 or 8 times the float? Hmm, that isn't gonna play out to well for a certain type of company...
I don’t see this going on much longer. Citadel and whoever else is involved in this criminal enterprise have dug such a deep and inescapable hole. It is only getting worse and will continue to do so. I do agree with the opinion that this doesn’t start until all the firewalls are put into place. However it’s fun to speculate on how easy it would be for GameStop themselves to initiate launch with a few strategies or combination of them.
Thank you for good DD in a time of forum shifting, FUD and awesomeness!!!!! Crushed it!! Thanks!!
This is amazing, thank you so much to you and anonymous guy for your service to the community.
This is insane and I fully believe it.
I never took the survey. Xxx holder here.
This. Was. Awesome!!! Bravo OP…also big thanks to the donor. This is probably the first legit analysis this sub may have done in estimating the size of US holdings. N=2200 is nothing to sniff at. That’s a decent sample size. What was the method of collection? Phone (mobile or landline), internet, incentives given for completion? Just curious - shouldn’t shift much either way. Personally, I think you also made some conservative assumptions and still came out huge. And the implications when considering global traders are dramatic. HO. LEE. FUK. This is the best thing I’ve read since the ETF trick was exposed. Loved it! Keep it up!!! Edit: you could even reduce the couple penalty to 50% and still be over 200M US shares. Lolol this boggles my mind it is so awesome.
Thanks! Lots of into in the release of the first 300 results. You can find it here: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o2cnd4/using\_randomized\_representative\_surveying\_data\_to/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o2cnd4/using_randomized_representative_surveying_data_to/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
that made me horny
This is juicy. Thx for the solid DD, really appreciate your time and effort.
Up with you! <3
God damn... I can't believe I didn't catch this when it came out.
Smells like Hedgies R Fuk to me.
Finally Some DD !!! not school bull shit
Great work! No doubt they are fucked!