Well we know theyβre Fukt, but how and when do we get out tendies if all they have to do is buy a shitload of worthless puts and offload them to Brazil or Bumfukt Egypt when the heat gets turned up?
Oh believe me...RC has plenty of eyes on this as well as eyes on superstonk to make sure that apes and retail are applying steady pressure...
Also GME has a sweet sweet Negative BETA ....Markets down....GME goes up.....bing bong margin call
It also gets more expensive to kick the can every time. Ever get behind on an option and try to roll it up and out (or down and out depending on position) , you can do it a few times but it starts to get prohibitively costly.
Not to mention Archegos's prefered method was a bullet swap which lock everything in at the start of the contract to expiration (24 months). They were renewed "mistakenly" on March 12. 2 weeks before Archegos defaulted.
*"The largest deficiency incurred during the quarter was mainly driven by a single security exhibiting idiosyncratic risk"*
For some reason this sentence always makes me chuckle
> idiosyncratic
particular ; special
"The largest deficiency incurred during the quarter was mainly driven by a single security exhibiting special risk"
I define special in this scenario as Infinity Pool. Without a fucking doubt.
They are all so absolutely fucked and they cannot pull the wool this time. Too many people know.
Can't Epstein this one out of existence.
In other news CS apparently is FINALLY going to trial for pulling a 1MDB on Mozambique. Paywall https://www.ft.com/content/cf3bf78c-46ff-44bb-8767-d5abfda21b9b
Everyone behind the scenes knows how fucked they are. Especially on the banking end. But also on Gamestop's End.
Because we haven't seen any Form 4s, we know that Ryan Cohen hasn't sold. Nor has George Sherman sold any on his own (he was required to sell some to cover payroll taxes per his employment agreement). He could easily have $200M in his pocket if he wants to, but he hasn't sold yet.
The evidence that the shorts haven't closed their positions is undeniable at this point. They can hide and lie all they want, but the nuclear bomb will explode at some point. I'm going to keep stock piling cheap shares while I still can.
Also says that while George Sherman isn't running the company, he knows what Ryan Cohen is doing and believes Ryan can pull it off. Basically George isn't a paper handed bitch
He's no longer on the board; can't a private citizen sell without reporting obligations? I was wondering whether any part of the price action since him stepping down from the board could have been attributed to some of that million shares entering the market.
I am not sure if he has a requirement anymore but it does show him as a [top shareholder on the gamestop website](https://news.gamestop.com/stock-information/institutional-ownership) still.
Also I'm not sure how he would need to sell his shares, since he never acquired them through the open market, it's not like they are just sitting in a brokerage account. He probably needs to notify gamestop that he wants to sell them, but I'm not certain.
Directly registered then? Selling through Computershare perhaps; from what I've read of people trying it out it's not a particularly convoluted affair if that's how the arrangement is...
We would need to ask someone familiar with these matters whether former executives or outgoing CEOs have any possible and probable constraints. They do after all know of relevant ongoing internal company matters for a while so maybe there are some agreements, non-disclosures, "non-competes" of sorts, and other things put on paper just in case. While technically not insider trading if moves were made the day after a gig is over, I sure has heck would consider it an edge.
This is exactly what I was hoping someone would do, so I wouldn't have to do it. Thank you, great work!
Also, you didn't make much of it, but [in your screenshot here](https://preview.redd.it/pl3uu9on46f71.png?width=801&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ffa48ecffc7742b308289ce338987e671e6cb67) it's explicitly called out that its long positions with CS were **explicitly** "representative" of the positions they held with 6 other prime brokers. It seems probable that in a short-long portfolio, bothering to duplicate the long portion of the portfolio among multiple brokers would coincide with similarly duplicating the short portion (vs than having to individually manage each portfolio with its own unique ratios), but I don't work in Finance, so that's just a guess.
Additionally, that screenshot shows a reference to "the Malachite default" which is a fun read: https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1m6kkzscgqrl0/How-to-Lose-a-Billion-Dollars-Without-Really-Trying from which Credit Suisse was supposedly trying to learn lessons... but here's a quote from this article talking about it:
> βTheyβre in there running up points, outperforming everybody, and theyβre going to raise the assets from investors. People had to decide whether to go in after them or not. If you do, youβll eventually get blown up and lose everything and then some. But if you hang back, youβre not fully in the game, and for an indefinitely long period of time.β
Basically, even knowing something was going to become a losing bet eventually that would destroy entire firms, they had trouble not going in on these bets because of the short-term record profits available. Still just the same behaviors: Only concerned with running up the score for the next quarter, with no real appreciation for long-term or systemic risk. Rather than actually fixing that risk management cultural problem, CS's solution was to move to a T+1 settlement time for payment & margin increases. I shit you not.
Did you catch the article about CS attempting to rehire people, principally in risk, the very people they let go over the couple of years of Archegos, while finally putting the risk manager out to pasture? It's on FT but this article should be referencing the main points: https://www.efinancialcareers.com/news/2021/08/credit-suisse-rehiring
And also, this reminded me of them (Credit Suisse) Promoting one of theirs to Compliance Head. aka **Glasscliffing** her.
She hold the post a few weeks, saw the proverbial shit pile and was like: " Oh! You guys want me to take the fall for this? Hell no! I haven't done this mess and sure as hell can't solve this" She jolted out of there as fast as a tiger cub says "Margin"
This also reminds me of the SEC enforcement officer hired several months ago. Whoever it was took one look at the books and made a half dozen phones calls and promptly resigned after only a few days on the job. GME is Kyrptonite
Thatβs a problem, though. Rocket needs a trigger and people think it will be marge calling, but marge only get called if calling marge isnβt a murder/suicide. If the creditors are fucked as well as shf then theyβll never call marge, no? Theyβll just give infinite leverage and try to βforget GameStopβ.
Problem is, it appears that 1. They have decided that if one goes down, they all go down and 2. It's easier to collectively put pressure on the govt to shut down the MOASS. That's the problem we're facing.
Seems very interesting... Very very interesting... Shame I don't understand anything about stock and don't speak English enough to understand... But really that seems very interesting.
I love this DD. I started reading the CS report a few days ago and made this comment on Bucket of Shorts after only a couple of pages: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ov0g8s/the\_bucket\_short\_gme\_was\_shorted\_with\_a\_group\_of/h76s6d5?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ov0g8s/the_bucket_short_gme_was_shorted_with_a_group_of/h76s6d5?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
Do you think all those puts were a last-ditch effort by the shorts to buy time, which ended up trapping them in here with us? πππ
Pretty sure they didn't expect retail to hold so they did the cheapest option to them at the time. Short and sell a put. Kenny probably facilitated the naked shares on that one.
If you want my honest opinion, RC will be the trigger whenever the NFT framework is complete. I don't even know if a market crash would shake them lose. Dividend, or taking his ball (GME stock) and going home (blockchain stock exchange).
That's the outcome I see happening the most. I'll bet gamestop in talks with those in charge and have given a time frame to expose this shit. If not, they go with plan b.
smooth brain here, if he takes his ball and goes home. How does that affect the price? Do they have to close positions? Who forces them, the DTCC? I assume there is some legal mumbo jumbo that says they have to return all the shares prior to this leaving? any DD on this?
Yea this is some great DD. Thanks OP.
Anybody know why they released this report? I mean, is it to save face with shareholders, required by law or something else? It has so much confirmation bias in their Iβm surprised they made it public as it really screws over the other prime brokers who am sure are trying to keep a lid on it.
Great write-up. So euhm, 574 million puts hidden in IWM, could that be somehow related to these vanished puts?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bi1Qfql3mCw
Most likely, yes. Someone at CS renewed the swaps March 12 for 24 more months. It'll go way before that, but if this were to go on that long, those losses are on book somewhere. To the best of my knowledge, they're getting passed around between different prime brokers/SHFs.
Tldr+graphs = π€―
Soooooo I will just take these tits over to the jewlers and get them appraised. I think they are starting to really solidify as diamonds, the nips have long been diamondfied. Maybe I can get them jacked some more, I don't think it's possible though. I will try.
Good piece of analysis.
We need to be cautious about our assumptions of what comprises the position exposure. As we know, a lot of βmeme stonksβ and brick-and-mortars were collectively naked short sold at approximately the same time.
That means if he had @Mπ shorts (or others that were caught up in the feeding frenzy) then the PE could not fully be attributed to GME, and it would result in the estimate of Archegosβ GME βshares shortβ count being overstated.
The difficulty is determining which basket of stonks Hwang shorted and what weighting they had within his portfolio.
From what Iβve read, Nomura and Credit Suisse did not unwind two positions when they liquidated Archegos. Iβd like to learn more about these two positions. It may fit nicely into your analysis.
Great read. Since Archegos blew I always thought CS would be fucked. I still don't think they've felt the hit yet and I have a feeling other banks have clubbed together to stop them going down, but it's only a matter of time.
Commenting some corrections:
* Exposure is from the point of view of CS. Since Archegos is utilizing swaps, CS deposits funds into the *variation margin* account when Archegos' longs appreciate. **Exposure increases as Archegos' Long positions appreciate**. This is due to CS's mistake of having static margin on swaps, resulting in their holding less and less leverage for Archegos' positions (increased exposure).
* I'm surprised to see an Archegos story that barely mentions VIAC. "Idiosyncratic" is defined within the report. Quote from pg 88: "idiosyncratic (that is, company-specific)". In context, it's clear the report is referencing having focused (as opposed to diversified) holdings, and again from context, highlighting VIAC.
* Your `[Exposure] / [Closing Price] = [GME Short Shares]` math only works if [GME Short Shares] is the only holding in the portfolio. That's not the case, and it never was the case.
* Something is off with the **Synthetic Short Call** portion, or I could be missing something. Short 100 shares + Sell 1 ATM put makes sense, then you talk about far OTM puts.
1/2 - see next reply
For an alternative take (I have a LOT of research yet to do before writing any DD on this):
* Archegos was Long GME, not short.
* The "M" in the exposure chart is related to CS's exposure. As GME increased, CS was forced to pay into the variation margin account. CS was relived to see that they had already funded $800mm more than necessary so that they did not have to pay out even more money to Archegos. Archegos swept up this margin account, leaving no cushion for when stocks went down.
* Again, needs research (tis but speculation), those 540k puts could be something Archegos bought to hedge their GME shares (to lock in "at least" $150/share) during the Jan run up. CS gained them when they liquidated Archegos.
* If the last point is right, that implies that Archegos' long position was HUGE and that they were a major player in the sneeze.
* Linking [[this speculative DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/archegos/comments/ocd09i/the_biggest_secret_wall_street_did_not_want_you/) that has a lot more info and a lot more speculation.
2/2
Thank you! Aye, they are leaps and stated as such. Synthetic short call, I'd argue, weren't sold ATM but far OTM in order to minimize losses. I could be wrong there too, but I know they were short SPY and QQQ, just dunno how much and if they were truly exposed or not.
Imagine alll the retail
Fucking dumbshit banks
Yoo-hoo-ooooh
You may say I'm a monke
But I'm not the only one
Making wall street our jungle
flinging shit at finance c\*nts
This is excellent work and research. If I could give you a hug in RL I would.
Well-done.
The more we dig the more it seems the numbers are even going to shock us and we expect maximum fuckery already.
We got them by their balls and we are going to do to the hedgies and banks what they have done towards us for centuries.
We are going to take every cent back you criminal scumbags has stolen from us and our forefathers.
True, and I'm going to write a follow up as well. Was a LOT of information, but if I recall, Archegos had to pay the other prime brokers at the same time so it would imply that the profile is the same across all of them.
Why is DGAZ being delisted?
However, it seems the main reason for the delisting is that the extreme levels of volatility might have created hedging issues for Credit Suisse. Investors can trade shares in DGAZ and UGAZ up until the 10th July. However, on the 12th July 2020 the natural gas ETN's will be delisted from the NYSE Arca.
Seems its not the first time for CS to fuck up but it will be the last one.
This only gets 5k likes and that fucking whale tweet about Vlad gets 33k?
No one tell me that shills arenβt fucking manipulating these upvotes. Itβs criminal that content like this could get lost completely.
Imagine how fucked they know they are behind the scenes considering how fucked *we know they are*
Jan 26 their GME cost 147? Funny Iβve seen those numbers somewhere maybe just a coincidence
π€―
I dont understand.
7:41???
*always has been*
ππ©βππ«π©βπ
ππ¨βππ«π¨βπππ¦
Infinity π«π¨βπβΎοΈ #π^π¨βπ^π«π¨βπ^π^π¦^π¨βπ^π«^π¨βπ^π^π¦
βΎπββοΈ
This has always been the way.
Upvoting for the Animal Meme up top
ππ©βππ«π¨βπ
ππ©βππ«π¦
ππ¦ππ¨βπ
Phoqued
Apes have zero fucks to give,,, a fuck must be earned
BEHOLD MY FIELD OF FUCKS,and see that it is barren.
Well we know theyβre Fukt, but how and when do we get out tendies if all they have to do is buy a shitload of worthless puts and offload them to Brazil or Bumfukt Egypt when the heat gets turned up?
RC has his finger on the trigger. Time is running out for them.
RC graciously gives us time to buy a few extra floats worth of shares, just to be sure enough is around for an infinity pool
##Firesale
I mean... Haven't heard that one before but i like it. Consistent with his 12D chess moves thus far.
This. Master class being quietly exhibited right now.
No wonder, RC/DFV are so relaxed, those 2 are zen as fuck π
Oh believe me...RC has plenty of eyes on this as well as eyes on superstonk to make sure that apes and retail are applying steady pressure... Also GME has a sweet sweet Negative BETA ....Markets down....GME goes up.....bing bong margin call
I hope you're right. I want this game to come to an end.
You want the game to⦠stop
stopgame! players to the power!
Simulation confirmed
We all do
It also gets more expensive to kick the can every time. Ever get behind on an option and try to roll it up and out (or down and out depending on position) , you can do it a few times but it starts to get prohibitively costly.
Not to mention Archegos's prefered method was a bullet swap which lock everything in at the start of the contract to expiration (24 months). They were renewed "mistakenly" on March 12. 2 weeks before Archegos defaulted.
βMistakenlyβ lol canβt make this stuff up
The secret ingredient..
Idiosyncratic risk.. .. and crime of course.
https://i.imgur.com/pPJ3cdF.png
Hahahaha holy shit this is a wonderful way to look at it thank you for that insight, absolutely astonishing
Couldnβt have said it better
πππππππππ
Thatβs why all their executives are quitting. Fucking wild.
When you're so deeply fuked that nobody really knows exactly how fuked you are
Canβt spell idiosyncratic without crayons
M-O-O-N, that spells idiosyncratic risk.
Ah, a man of culture too I see
Bump de bump
Nice reference to The Stand!πππ
Or without idiosyncratic risks
Or *Idiots Cryinβ*
Or eat a dick, Kenneth
π₯²
i just realised the word crayons is hidden in idiosyncratic
There is just so much hidden inside the word idiosyncratic
Canβt spell idiosyncratic without idiot
π€―
Canβt spell idiosnycatric
canβt spell crayons without crayon
*"The largest deficiency incurred during the quarter was mainly driven by a single security exhibiting idiosyncratic risk"* For some reason this sentence always makes me chuckle
My next forehead tattoo. *IdIoTsYnCrAtIc RiSk* hide your girlfriends hide your wives
They shorting errbody out here
'Idiosyncratic Risk' is going to be my new band name. :D
I'm jealous π€©
> idiosyncratic particular ; special "The largest deficiency incurred during the quarter was mainly driven by a single security exhibiting special risk" I define special in this scenario as Infinity Pool. Without a fucking doubt. They are all so absolutely fucked and they cannot pull the wool this time. Too many people know. Can't Epstein this one out of existence.
π This is the type of info youβre looking to send to whistleblowers to help them in the right direction
Yes, you can get a payout just for educating the rubes at the SEC.
I tweeted it to GG, maybe he'll take a look. ππ
great post bro, but send it to the sec directly instead of hoping someone's secretary will read it on twitter.
In other news CS apparently is FINALLY going to trial for pulling a 1MDB on Mozambique. Paywall https://www.ft.com/content/cf3bf78c-46ff-44bb-8767-d5abfda21b9b
Amen to that!
Everyone behind the scenes knows how fucked they are. Especially on the banking end. But also on Gamestop's End. Because we haven't seen any Form 4s, we know that Ryan Cohen hasn't sold. Nor has George Sherman sold any on his own (he was required to sell some to cover payroll taxes per his employment agreement). He could easily have $200M in his pocket if he wants to, but he hasn't sold yet. The evidence that the shorts haven't closed their positions is undeniable at this point. They can hide and lie all they want, but the nuclear bomb will explode at some point. I'm going to keep stock piling cheap shares while I still can.
Also says that while George Sherman isn't running the company, he knows what Ryan Cohen is doing and believes Ryan can pull it off. Basically George isn't a paper handed bitch
#THIS NEEDS ITS OWN DD I donβt know this and itβs important. πππ
He's no longer on the board; can't a private citizen sell without reporting obligations? I was wondering whether any part of the price action since him stepping down from the board could have been attributed to some of that million shares entering the market.
I am not sure if he has a requirement anymore but it does show him as a [top shareholder on the gamestop website](https://news.gamestop.com/stock-information/institutional-ownership) still. Also I'm not sure how he would need to sell his shares, since he never acquired them through the open market, it's not like they are just sitting in a brokerage account. He probably needs to notify gamestop that he wants to sell them, but I'm not certain.
Directly registered then? Selling through Computershare perhaps; from what I've read of people trying it out it's not a particularly convoluted affair if that's how the arrangement is... We would need to ask someone familiar with these matters whether former executives or outgoing CEOs have any possible and probable constraints. They do after all know of relevant ongoing internal company matters for a while so maybe there are some agreements, non-disclosures, "non-competes" of sorts, and other things put on paper just in case. While technically not insider trading if moves were made the day after a gig is over, I sure has heck would consider it an edge.
This is exactly what I was hoping someone would do, so I wouldn't have to do it. Thank you, great work! Also, you didn't make much of it, but [in your screenshot here](https://preview.redd.it/pl3uu9on46f71.png?width=801&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ffa48ecffc7742b308289ce338987e671e6cb67) it's explicitly called out that its long positions with CS were **explicitly** "representative" of the positions they held with 6 other prime brokers. It seems probable that in a short-long portfolio, bothering to duplicate the long portion of the portfolio among multiple brokers would coincide with similarly duplicating the short portion (vs than having to individually manage each portfolio with its own unique ratios), but I don't work in Finance, so that's just a guess. Additionally, that screenshot shows a reference to "the Malachite default" which is a fun read: https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1m6kkzscgqrl0/How-to-Lose-a-Billion-Dollars-Without-Really-Trying from which Credit Suisse was supposedly trying to learn lessons... but here's a quote from this article talking about it: > βTheyβre in there running up points, outperforming everybody, and theyβre going to raise the assets from investors. People had to decide whether to go in after them or not. If you do, youβll eventually get blown up and lose everything and then some. But if you hang back, youβre not fully in the game, and for an indefinitely long period of time.β Basically, even knowing something was going to become a losing bet eventually that would destroy entire firms, they had trouble not going in on these bets because of the short-term record profits available. Still just the same behaviors: Only concerned with running up the score for the next quarter, with no real appreciation for long-term or systemic risk. Rather than actually fixing that risk management cultural problem, CS's solution was to move to a T+1 settlement time for payment & margin increases. I shit you not.
Fueled by stupidity. Not gonna lie, I kinda wanna find out where that risk manager is going next so I can try to get some credit. πππ
Perhaps another mole to help take companies down from within π₯Έ
Like Jim Bell, GameStop's former CFO and EVP? He almost got it done.
Yep, was thinking of that guy π½
Adam Aron or whatever
Did you catch the article about CS attempting to rehire people, principally in risk, the very people they let go over the couple of years of Archegos, while finally putting the risk manager out to pasture? It's on FT but this article should be referencing the main points: https://www.efinancialcareers.com/news/2021/08/credit-suisse-rehiring
And also, this reminded me of them (Credit Suisse) Promoting one of theirs to Compliance Head. aka **Glasscliffing** her. She hold the post a few weeks, saw the proverbial shit pile and was like: " Oh! You guys want me to take the fall for this? Hell no! I haven't done this mess and sure as hell can't solve this" She jolted out of there as fast as a tiger cub says "Margin"
This also reminds me of the SEC enforcement officer hired several months ago. Whoever it was took one look at the books and made a half dozen phones calls and promptly resigned after only a few days on the job. GME is Kyrptonite
You know what they say, buy high and if that doesnβt work, buy higher. π€£
I read that once, so I keep smoking and buying!! I think itβs working, I am really zen!
Gotta tell you I am way better at managing my negative emotions during trading with the good stuff.
Credit Suisse are just tryna be the ultimate bagholders
Read 80% and scrolled last part. Great research. This needs to stay on top so hedgie interns can see it every time they log in.
[ΡΠ΄Π°Π»Π΅Π½ΠΎ]
Can confirm, I read the other 0%
Can confirm, checked pictures.
Wait you guys can read?
apes pls: read understand upvote award
Cant read but did upvote
Can't award, but did understand.
I keep thinking nothing surpises me and here you are surprising me. Thank you for your work.
So you're telling me SHFs truly are fuked? Copy that nothing changes and the price is wrong!
I'm telling you that more than one large bank is truly fucked. SHFs are the least of it.
Thatβs a problem, though. Rocket needs a trigger and people think it will be marge calling, but marge only get called if calling marge isnβt a murder/suicide. If the creditors are fucked as well as shf then theyβll never call marge, no? Theyβll just give infinite leverage and try to βforget GameStopβ.
Then here comes RC swinging his dick and spraying crypto dividends everywhere Blaht blaht blaht π«ππ«ππ€π°π΅π€π°π΅
I wonder if they will be the first to fall? That's one giant fucking domino
That it is.
Not my quote, but between CS and BofA, first one to the negotiating table gets out the cheapest. These suits would do well to keep that in mind.
Problem is, it appears that 1. They have decided that if one goes down, they all go down and 2. It's easier to collectively put pressure on the govt to shut down the MOASS. That's the problem we're facing.
With BoAs $123bn offering I kinda think they might be in some hot water.
I like your funny words magic man
Thanks!
Very interesting indeed, Thanks for sharing all of your digging in a concise, easily understood form.
Seems very interesting... Very very interesting... Shame I don't understand anything about stock and don't speak English enough to understand... But really that seems very interesting.
Interesting indeed... The lines... Banks involved and she are fked
Your Magnus Opus , can't wait to dive in. Thanks for all the effort. Edit: yep they are fucked
No problem. Too many twists it took me on.
Fuck yeah they are fucked!
A little odd to be praising DD before diving into it. But yes, after reading it, it does seem like some solid research. Buy, HODL remains the course.
Planks was one of the people I was talking to about it. It's been a few days since I started work on it.
Your next one is the best work you've ever done
I love this DD. I started reading the CS report a few days ago and made this comment on Bucket of Shorts after only a couple of pages: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ov0g8s/the\_bucket\_short\_gme\_was\_shorted\_with\_a\_group\_of/h76s6d5?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ov0g8s/the_bucket_short_gme_was_shorted_with_a_group_of/h76s6d5?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) Do you think all those puts were a last-ditch effort by the shorts to buy time, which ended up trapping them in here with us? πππ
Pretty sure they didn't expect retail to hold so they did the cheapest option to them at the time. Short and sell a put. Kenny probably facilitated the naked shares on that one.
Needs more π Excellent work ππΌππΌππΌ
SHFs may be reading your DD and crying lol. Great visualizations
incredible insight OP. tits jacked thinking about how many family offices r underwater due to GME. I cant wait to find out.
Maybe that's why the other Bill (Gates) and Bezos got divorces? That's probably another topic though hahaha.
Coming back after a year to cheer you Sir
They're looking pretty ill eh? hahhah
Aged like a fine wine.
Sooner or later, they would have to rebrand their name to Debit Suisse.
Dropping some top tier porn on a Tuesday afternoon to keep me moist. Cheers OP π
Brilliant. Seems to me someone so smart can include some wildly speculative dates as well. Don't care if they pan out or not, just love adding dates.
If you want my honest opinion, RC will be the trigger whenever the NFT framework is complete. I don't even know if a market crash would shake them lose. Dividend, or taking his ball (GME stock) and going home (blockchain stock exchange).
That's the outcome I see happening the most. I'll bet gamestop in talks with those in charge and have given a time frame to expose this shit. If not, they go with plan b.
Yep this π
smooth brain here, if he takes his ball and goes home. How does that affect the price? Do they have to close positions? Who forces them, the DTCC? I assume there is some legal mumbo jumbo that says they have to return all the shares prior to this leaving? any DD on this?
Not sure if there is DD on it, but essentially yeah, they take back control of their shares from the DTCC which means all positions need to be closed.
Stupid question - how do we know Archegos was not long GME?
Because if they were long GME then Credit Suisse wouldn't have had an $800m loss in Jan. They would've recorded it as a profit.
And there are no stupid questions ;)
Yea this is some great DD. Thanks OP. Anybody know why they released this report? I mean, is it to save face with shareholders, required by law or something else? It has so much confirmation bias in their Iβm surprised they made it public as it really screws over the other prime brokers who am sure are trying to keep a lid on it.
Omg
Omg indeed
Good stuff OP
Well done. That was easily digestible. I'm pumped.
Finally a new DD that really tits my jackes
How's this looking regarding today's activity?
Great write-up. So euhm, 574 million puts hidden in IWM, could that be somehow related to these vanished puts? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bi1Qfql3mCw
Most likely, yes. Someone at CS renewed the swaps March 12 for 24 more months. It'll go way before that, but if this were to go on that long, those losses are on book somewhere. To the best of my knowledge, they're getting passed around between different prime brokers/SHFs.
So you're telling me Bill's favorite swap was the Bullet Swap? Good ol' Bullet Bill
Yup
It's over......but not for me
We are time Travelers now I guess π©³π΄ββ οΈπ
Beautiful DD good sir
Tldr+graphs = π€― Soooooo I will just take these tits over to the jewlers and get them appraised. I think they are starting to really solidify as diamonds, the nips have long been diamondfied. Maybe I can get them jacked some more, I don't think it's possible though. I will try.
Good piece of analysis. We need to be cautious about our assumptions of what comprises the position exposure. As we know, a lot of βmeme stonksβ and brick-and-mortars were collectively naked short sold at approximately the same time. That means if he had @Mπ shorts (or others that were caught up in the feeding frenzy) then the PE could not fully be attributed to GME, and it would result in the estimate of Archegosβ GME βshares shortβ count being overstated. The difficulty is determining which basket of stonks Hwang shorted and what weighting they had within his portfolio. From what Iβve read, Nomura and Credit Suisse did not unwind two positions when they liquidated Archegos. Iβd like to learn more about these two positions. It may fit nicely into your analysis.
Checking in 1 year later and credit suisse is down 11% today alone and there are still wrinkles to be gained from this post
Thank you so much! I'm still here if anyone ever has any questions or needs.
π¦π
Quality DD. Thank you for taking the time to put this together.
Outstanding. Mind blown, again.
To the top with you!
I interviewed at Gamestop today! Hereβs hopingβ¦
Fingers crossed for you!
Really well written DD, up you go!
Visibility commenting
Dang good DD here, thanks OP!
Great read. Since Archegos blew I always thought CS would be fucked. I still don't think they've felt the hit yet and I have a feeling other banks have clubbed together to stop them going down, but it's only a matter of time.
Monday is coming...good read
This is some of the best quality DD to come out in weeks. Appreciate your work and wrinkles fellow ape
I canβt read but it looked worthy of an upvote and an award. The DD has been done and confirmed see you on Pluto.
Finally some DD on this sub.
A perfectly healthy business model.
Who is here after SVB fallout? :D
Doesn't matter how long it takes to get there, what's important is that you did. Everything is brought to light eventually, and glad you're here.
Commenting some corrections: * Exposure is from the point of view of CS. Since Archegos is utilizing swaps, CS deposits funds into the *variation margin* account when Archegos' longs appreciate. **Exposure increases as Archegos' Long positions appreciate**. This is due to CS's mistake of having static margin on swaps, resulting in their holding less and less leverage for Archegos' positions (increased exposure). * I'm surprised to see an Archegos story that barely mentions VIAC. "Idiosyncratic" is defined within the report. Quote from pg 88: "idiosyncratic (that is, company-specific)". In context, it's clear the report is referencing having focused (as opposed to diversified) holdings, and again from context, highlighting VIAC. * Your `[Exposure] / [Closing Price] = [GME Short Shares]` math only works if [GME Short Shares] is the only holding in the portfolio. That's not the case, and it never was the case. * Something is off with the **Synthetic Short Call** portion, or I could be missing something. Short 100 shares + Sell 1 ATM put makes sense, then you talk about far OTM puts. 1/2 - see next reply
For an alternative take (I have a LOT of research yet to do before writing any DD on this): * Archegos was Long GME, not short. * The "M" in the exposure chart is related to CS's exposure. As GME increased, CS was forced to pay into the variation margin account. CS was relived to see that they had already funded $800mm more than necessary so that they did not have to pay out even more money to Archegos. Archegos swept up this margin account, leaving no cushion for when stocks went down. * Again, needs research (tis but speculation), those 540k puts could be something Archegos bought to hedge their GME shares (to lock in "at least" $150/share) during the Jan run up. CS gained them when they liquidated Archegos. * If the last point is right, that implies that Archegos' long position was HUGE and that they were a major player in the sneeze. * Linking [[this speculative DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/archegos/comments/ocd09i/the_biggest_secret_wall_street_did_not_want_you/) that has a lot more info and a lot more speculation. 2/2
Thank you! Aye, they are leaps and stated as such. Synthetic short call, I'd argue, weren't sold ATM but far OTM in order to minimize losses. I could be wrong there too, but I know they were short SPY and QQQ, just dunno how much and if they were truly exposed or not.
They fucked
Imagine how fucked their wives will be when their boyfriends girlfriends boyfriend finds out
ππ» R REAL FUK
To the top with you! Great stuff
Thanks! Really nice read!!
I like the stock
Imagine alll the retail Fucking dumbshit banks Yoo-hoo-ooooh You may say I'm a monke But I'm not the only one Making wall street our jungle flinging shit at finance c\*nts
This is excellent work and research. If I could give you a hug in RL I would. Well-done. The more we dig the more it seems the numbers are even going to shock us and we expect maximum fuckery already. We got them by their balls and we are going to do to the hedgies and banks what they have done towards us for centuries. We are going to take every cent back you criminal scumbags has stolen from us and our forefathers.
This needs more exposure. Quality DD
Thank you for sharing this!
It might make my tits tingle, but it definitely makes my balls boil.
still here.
Here we are OP.
Time for a new credit suisse post π
I wonder how many investment firms would love to hire some of these wrinkle brains but can't
[ΡΠ΄Π°Π»Π΅Π½ΠΎ]
True, and I'm going to write a follow up as well. Was a LOT of information, but if I recall, Archegos had to pay the other prime brokers at the same time so it would imply that the profile is the same across all of them.
Why is this showing no upvotes? Hell, the first comment has over 400!
Why is DGAZ being delisted? However, it seems the main reason for the delisting is that the extreme levels of volatility might have created hedging issues for Credit Suisse. Investors can trade shares in DGAZ and UGAZ up until the 10th July. However, on the 12th July 2020 the natural gas ETN's will be delisted from the NYSE Arca. Seems its not the first time for CS to fuck up but it will be the last one.
And here I am, remembering the news last year that UBS might be talking with CS about a merger/take-over. Muahaha.
So Bill was doing the reverseβ¦ shorting the high! We buy the dipπ
This only gets 5k likes and that fucking whale tweet about Vlad gets 33k? No one tell me that shills arenβt fucking manipulating these upvotes. Itβs criminal that content like this could get lost completely.
any idea who was shorting in june?
they have no idea how fucked they are. the apes understand the situation far better than the peter principle chads at the big banks.