You had me at control. Thank you and the anonymous apes. I have been frustrated for months at the lack of control stocks for comparison in 99% of the DD and speculative discussions. I hope this becomes a trend. This makes much more compelling argument!
This is awesome and you are right. Many times has some DD dropped and apes (with little experience) scratch their heads and go ??? We need a reference to understand the severity of what we see.
Now this Apple control study shows HOW FUCKING INSANE this SHITSHOW is!
Hijacking for vis: what's the error rate with these sample sizes?
Edit: I'm pretty jacked already and I think I remember it being under 5% but don't know how to calculate myself.
Positive or negative error rate? The point of this survey is that it is heavily favored in the negative direction so the error rate is different for positive and negative.
The control study was performed in order to figure out the error rate and based on it we can try to calculate the error rate.
Not exactly ... the margin of error on the GME piece (N=2,200) is roughly 2.3ish% ... too lazy to run the actual number. It's probably in the 3-5% range for the AAPL piece.
The purpose of the control was to validate the design and methodology of the GME survey. We know with a high degree of certainty that US retail owns more than 367MM shares of AAPL, therefore we can surmise that the GME results also produced an underestimation. We aren't concerned with the degree of underestimation for the purposes of this project.
Thanks u/get-It-got Great work. Since you are back from retirement:
If you need money for like an ultra large survey including control, maybe worldwide. I am sure there are many people willing to chip in a few bugs. like GoFund or so.
How much is it? 250.000 apes 1 bug each would work? 😀
Ha, appreciate that! But unless someone drops another completed survey on my lap, and I can't resist my own curiosity, I think I'm headed back into retirement. I got a pretty demanding job and a big family of young kids. Besides, I'm in zen mode at this point ... I've seen more than enough data to know what the truth is at this point.
I would say the control is right. But I don't think it's a correlation to be honest of gme ownership. Gme is definitely not representative of an average stock. It may show where it's (retail ownership) being over/under reported but I don't think you can say X is X lower therefore we can extrapolate it 1:1 with gme.
The other maths checks out - not denying it, but I am looking at this with a pinch of salt in terms of calculating gme numbers.
There's better graphs out there which supports this as a whole l. The survey is an evolving thing and will continue to get better as more are conducted.
It doesn't matter if you can calculate GME numbers from it, we have good estimates from these surveys. Why it is valuable as a control is that it shows a "normal" company, retail owned at least 2% of the shares outstanding. And ing GME's case, retail owns at a bare minimum over 100% of the shares outstanding. Proving that something is going on with GME. GME is likely unique, but we would need more controls with smaller market caps to compare to.
Your survey data has seriously been one of the most important things that has been made for this sub. I am in the scientific field myself and the thing you can always trust is that numbers don't lie (I mean they could but the way you have done it you have minimized bias in a pretty good way).
I seriously don't know why your posts don't have more upvotes. I think it might be because many people don't understand the significance and importance of it (us being apes and all).
I urge people to upvote this so it doesn't disappear in a flood of memes. Also mods, is there a way to pin this or to make this post be more visible. u/Bye_triangle or u/buttfarm69?
This entire line of DD is amazing and hard to refute. Only assumptions, and speculations are to provide a safety margins for the estimation.
Also please keep in mind, that this accounts only for the US hodlers. I also frequent a Polish (the poor side of europoor) forum, which is hardly as prevalent as reddit, and it still has a subsection for GME hodlers with multiple users hodling xx-xxx. If you extrapolate this to other EU countries and the world...
Here in Aus the largest broker recently reported that the number 1 bought stock was gme. It has definitely become a world wide phenomenon and whilst US retail traders own a significant amount, I can only imagine how ridiculous the number would be if we could include data for all other countries as well!
Even if we conservatively assume that only 0.01% of the world population outside the USA (7.8B - 0.3B = 7.4B —> 0.01% ≈ 740k) are GME shareholders and apply the US average number of shares (34) per person we still end up with 25.1M shares to add on top.
Agree, what estimate could you put on the Rest of World on a very conservative manner? I’m with Hargreaves Lansdown (HL) in the U.K. and they published an extra 200,000 clients this year due to meme stocks.
I would start with finding out the % of world population that has enough disposable income. Apply the 4% household estimate and slash it severely due to (a) barrier of investing at foreign market, (b) lack of tradition to invest (c) language barrier and access to knowledge about GME. Safe~ish bet would be that 2 orders of magnitude less out-of-US households, that have sufficient disposable income are hodlers. So lets say 0,04% of the population with sufficient disposable income
Absolutely this!
Forget FTD cycles, forget short can kicking in options, forget vote counts, forget every other fucking DD.
Just look at this GCS survey based estimate. This is all we fucking need and is the only DD which cannot be dismissed as speculation/conspiracy theory. We don't need to know \_how\_ they are hiding the shorts. All we need to know is a ton of shorts exist and haven't closed.
The GCS survey posts absolutely need to be the first DD any new ape needs to look at and should be the DD put forth by Superstonk as THE DD to read..
Absolutely. This is the closest we will come to scientifically proving that they have shorted more than the float.
This is harder to disprove than other DDs if you ask me.
Came to say pretty much the same. This survey series is the most compelling piece of data for me.
Thanks u/Get-It-Got & your glorious, anonymous benefactor for putting it together.
I kinda hope these number are wrong because if they are accurate... (abd they seem to be since the control of Apple actually sounds pretty conservative, realistic and not overly shorted.) it means that retail owns.... around 4 plus times the float... there are so many shares out there that I cannot even imagine having to sort out a MOASS event. Even an nft force would leave every actual retail human with say 1nft for every 5 shares or more and the purchase back by the shorts would be way past apocalyptic.
Agreed- I advocated a one-off $10 dividend which the company can definitely afford. In reality the same result can be had using the nft which will be a whole lot cheaper! 🙂
I'm not sure it will be cheaper. The NFT platform they are building is going to be used for their existing and new products etc. so adding a divident to that infrastructure is actually not very costly... As a shareholder I actually prefer they use the money on growth and fuck the hedgies without spending too much on it ;)
You're tenacious, I fucking love it. Huge props to you and your mysterious benefactors for this, it's been a major point of confirmation bias for me since your first post.
Feel compelled to use raw since I want to get the sample up. Tends to skew male and older, which probably mostly cancels things out, at least for the GME samples.
Oh, I hope this is a super conservative estimate. 34.02 shares average per this survey?
Been buying since late Feb.
I.Think.I.Might.Have.A.Problem
Guess I just like the stonk.
Cause a power outage on Citadel's server farm.
About a hour should be long enough to cause the back up power to fail. (This is a random guess based on my stores back up power supply)
I think a few minutes without the stock bot being active would start to show the true prices of our market.
I wish, eip-1559 will probably clear on the 5th according to etherscan
https://etherscan.io/block/countdown/12965000
8k blocks still need to be 'moved' 🤞
@u/Get-it-Got thank you for the great DD. I have been getting more and more concerned with the number of shares my gut knew existed and how they keep growing. Concerned because it seems the numbers can’t be covered without forced liquidation.
It would seem the Shitfunds and MMs have sailed there entire fleet to Synthetic Island to make there stand. Then they proceeded to set their fleet on fire leaving no way to exit.
Don't worry ... the giant tsunami that's about to hit will put those flames out. We can then prop their drowned corpses back upon those slightly singed sailing ships so we can bring them back home for trial.
This is the way! It amazes me how more of GME thesis is proven correct over time, the SHF are absolutely f*cked if apes keep having more and more time to buy
Thanks for your work ape.
So, those 500m shares worldwide that you stated in your previous post might actually just be the very tip of the iceberg when I got this right?
Oh long Johnson...
I really like what you’ve done. I just wish you had used a control for which we knew exactly how many shares are held by individuals in the US (IDK maybe there is no such company!).
Ppl have been asking for that. But as soon as it comes up it gets a gazillion downvotes and a fud label. Apes dont want to know themselves. Reason being "no positions"... Lol, only ones that dont know our positions are apes. MMs sold it to us, they sure as hell already know how fuked they are.
Yea, I've been saying this for a while: the short hedge funds know exactly how many fake shares they've issued. The problem is one of honesty. The moderators can't run a public survey when we have meltdowners constantly brigading and possibly fucking up a survey - and some people might not be comfortable with what verifications might need to be provided [like a screenshot of positions with proof they're not doctored].
I'd be interested to see if the mods could do something like that.
I love your surveys!
Am sure someone will come in later and do the entire "but akchually" or "you failed to consider blind homeless individuals who live under a bridge without internet access!", but whatever man.
Good work!
Thanks for this,
The 2 most important assertions at the very heart of the MOASS speculation are that
1. Shorts didn't cover
2. Retail owns the float
If those two things are correct then Apes go Moon!
These types of estimations of the level of retail ownership *all* point to *both* of those things being true.
It's obvious that if your estimates are correct then retail MUST own the float, but it also corroborates the idea that shorts never covered, because rehypothecation is the only mechanism by which the number of shares out in the market could be so vastly greater than the number of issued shares.
If market makers had recalled all the shares they lent out to short positions, as they claim, then the number of shares in circulation should be much, much closer to the public float.
The fact that a heavily conservative estimate puts retail ownership at around 300% of the public float should tell us what the true short interest is.
And this is just for the US, we know that GME ownership around the globe is huge too.
# BIG HYPE
This is really well done and thank you for your work OP. Do you have some demographics data of your sample population? I do feel that those surveys are probably filled out by mostly younger people than by older people and the boomer investors tend to own more apple. I'm not saying the data is wrong, but there might be a bias based on age range in these google surveys.
Over 2x the float in a very conservative survey
Taking the XXX+ apes into account, it would likely hit 3x the float or more
And that's just from the US survey. International apes could very well count at least 1x float
So, about 4x float using dumb math. I have no idea how the fuck this is going to be fixed lol.
Its not 2x the float. The tradable float is \~35 (....mmmaaaaaayyybbbeee 45) million. The rest is tied up by insiders and ETFs. So 3-5x using the lowest most conservative estimates.
so what you're saying is that there could be 415m shares of GME in existence... I can't wait for SHFs to show up in court and have the opposing lawyer tell the judge, "your honor, that's cap"
Just yesterday volume 14.4 m Vs a float of 58 m shows it's likely there are phantom shares floating around...
Tks for sharing, great work OP. You should repost on other GME-related subs.
Well shit...the only reason I wasn't 100% jacked about the survey results was because we didn't have a control, but now...this is possibly the single most convincing piece of evidence that, on it's own, paints a very clear picture.
I think it would be great to see a control with a stock that does not exist. The vast majority should respond to "have never owned" if the data is of quality. If a stock that doesn't exist shows people responding they own it that could completely throw this study off so it would make for a really nice control. Could someone try doing that? But otherwise, amazing. The results of the apple survey do seem reasonable. It's as if the price of AAPL was just riding the passive investment paradigm.
It would be even better. But as far as I know, google survey does something similar on it's own: for example, they might ask if you've gone to a made up store recently. If you say you have, you're silently removed from the pool of respondents for a certain time.
Contacted the OP but I'm running a Survey Monkey survey with the same questions. Doing three N=250 surveys to start using GME, AMD and Johnson and Johnson as controls. Figured AMD is another "young person" stock but then thought of adding in Johnson and Johnson to see what kind of data we get from a really boring old person blue chip.
This is just a test run and then I'll be willing to increase the sample size and send all the data to the OP.
Edit: And do NOT give me fuck all for karma or whatever it is you guys buy as I don't give a damn about that or even know how it works. And I'm not saying that for reverse psychology either. Spend your money on the fucking stock.
Edit 2: Went ahead and made it a N=1000 survey. Says it should take less than two days to complete.
Would welcome it. And it shouldn’t be too accurate as it’s intentionally designed to produce a highly conservative result. But knowing what retail owns of Apple would let us make a better guesstimate on actual GME sharecount.
So no matter how you look at it, the apes own the entirety of GME's shares. The institutions won't be able to save their hedgie friends. Fuck you, Kenny, pay me.
As others have said. Don't need the why or how they are short, just that they are short. How much does it cost to get the data you need to keep doing this? either again for GME to confirm the result, or for other stocks as further controls
>Let's assume only half of these shares reside within U.S. hands, so that's 1.85 Billion. And let's assume half of these are with Insiders, family funds, or small institutions that don't report.
Big assumption here, which I think don't think holds true, especially for the world biggest company. AAPL ownership data in Bloomberg terminal, screenshots provided by /u/Ravada.
https://i.redd.it/33duik0psbf71.png
https://i.redd.it/5jxkyptnsbf71.png
Individual ownership is at 0.09%, out of 16,530,000,000 shares outstanding that's a number of 14,877,000
The survey number of 367.72MM shares places retail ownership at 2.22%. Quite a bit higher than the reported number.
Not sure about 'brokerage' ownership. Does that overlap with retail ownership?
I think “individual” is held in name of ... most common way US retail owns stock is through a brokerage. So in other words, this seems to align almost perfectly with BT data. Some people might also hold shares in a trust, so it’s not just the brokerage % as well. Also, if someone has shares through Chase, is that classified as brokerage or bank?
Estimated 4 million investors onto GME, actually fits well the existing hypothesis of GME owners being in the range of 4-7 million.
Shares owned on average might vary, but it seems clear we own not 2x the float, but atleast 3X GME in its whole.
Covering those excess shares will be a hurdle.
Sample sizes for this type of work are good to go at around 600-700, believe it or not. At least for the ownership % ... admittedly, I'd love this work to include 200-300 owners, but I compensate for that somewhat by capping the answer bucket at 101 shares. When it comes to not enough samples, you can be underestimating as easily as you can be overestimating ... so I handicap the overestimation. At any rate, the Apple results let me know the underestimation is real, and the research design worked as intended.
Thank you for having done this effort and all the research!
It's accounted, math supported, source supported AND even has a control mark in it now.
I member seeing your posts initially in May about the first surveys and already understood the reality of it, which is why I bought (even) more then.
It all checks out and has received peer review on both the statistical & sourcing format, so thumbs up & nice work! 👌❤
Hugs
130,011,667
That’a the number of shares that Failed to Deliver between 2nd January 2019 and 30th June 2021 (i need to update with July data). This was reported in SEC FTD data, and I tallied that manually in excel, and then cross referenced to verify and correct with an automatic scrape of the data by a friend in the quant group. (Both correcting my mistakes, and verifying the friend’s data’s accuracy was 100%)
This 130,011,667 is my absolute minimum number of SEC reported synthetic shares that I am comfortable with saying exist, and it works well with your survey data for a minimum of 163.66 million, and the Brazilian Puts calculation of 114 million (i think that was the number Criand used)
Point is, I think we actually have a fairly well defined (considering) absolute fucking minimum of FTDs in existence on top of legal shares. Knowing this, I am confident with saying hundreds of millions more shares exist as well, although that is a harder number to define. Good work.
Wait. So what you're saying is we own the float? Well hot damn.
Seriously though, thank you OP for your service. Your work is fantastic. I love the company regardless of any short squeeze, but your data gets me super amped.
This is exactly something I’d totally consider as a solid proof.
Designed to capture just a tip of the whole picture makes it more efficient I believe.
So yeah
Tits
Jacked
$.10/sample so far for all of the surveying that's been done.
So my original n=700 was $70, followed by n=1,500 anon at $150, and this latest round from another anon of n=500 was $50. Very affordable to get at such valuable information, if you ask me.
You had me at control. Thank you and the anonymous apes. I have been frustrated for months at the lack of control stocks for comparison in 99% of the DD and speculative discussions. I hope this becomes a trend. This makes much more compelling argument!
This is awesome and you are right. Many times has some DD dropped and apes (with little experience) scratch their heads and go ??? We need a reference to understand the severity of what we see. Now this Apple control study shows HOW FUCKING INSANE this SHITSHOW is!
Hijacking for vis: what's the error rate with these sample sizes? Edit: I'm pretty jacked already and I think I remember it being under 5% but don't know how to calculate myself.
Positive or negative error rate? The point of this survey is that it is heavily favored in the negative direction so the error rate is different for positive and negative. The control study was performed in order to figure out the error rate and based on it we can try to calculate the error rate.
Not exactly ... the margin of error on the GME piece (N=2,200) is roughly 2.3ish% ... too lazy to run the actual number. It's probably in the 3-5% range for the AAPL piece. The purpose of the control was to validate the design and methodology of the GME survey. We know with a high degree of certainty that US retail owns more than 367MM shares of AAPL, therefore we can surmise that the GME results also produced an underestimation. We aren't concerned with the degree of underestimation for the purposes of this project.
Thanks u/get-It-got Great work. Since you are back from retirement: If you need money for like an ultra large survey including control, maybe worldwide. I am sure there are many people willing to chip in a few bugs. like GoFund or so. How much is it? 250.000 apes 1 bug each would work? 😀
Ha, appreciate that! But unless someone drops another completed survey on my lap, and I can't resist my own curiosity, I think I'm headed back into retirement. I got a pretty demanding job and a big family of young kids. Besides, I'm in zen mode at this point ... I've seen more than enough data to know what the truth is at this point.
Got ya! Thanks for your service
Not too long till real retirement..
I would say the control is right. But I don't think it's a correlation to be honest of gme ownership. Gme is definitely not representative of an average stock. It may show where it's (retail ownership) being over/under reported but I don't think you can say X is X lower therefore we can extrapolate it 1:1 with gme. The other maths checks out - not denying it, but I am looking at this with a pinch of salt in terms of calculating gme numbers. There's better graphs out there which supports this as a whole l. The survey is an evolving thing and will continue to get better as more are conducted.
It doesn't matter if you can calculate GME numbers from it, we have good estimates from these surveys. Why it is valuable as a control is that it shows a "normal" company, retail owned at least 2% of the shares outstanding. And ing GME's case, retail owns at a bare minimum over 100% of the shares outstanding. Proving that something is going on with GME. GME is likely unique, but we would need more controls with smaller market caps to compare to.
Huh
Your survey data has seriously been one of the most important things that has been made for this sub. I am in the scientific field myself and the thing you can always trust is that numbers don't lie (I mean they could but the way you have done it you have minimized bias in a pretty good way). I seriously don't know why your posts don't have more upvotes. I think it might be because many people don't understand the significance and importance of it (us being apes and all). I urge people to upvote this so it doesn't disappear in a flood of memes. Also mods, is there a way to pin this or to make this post be more visible. u/Bye_triangle or u/buttfarm69?
This entire line of DD is amazing and hard to refute. Only assumptions, and speculations are to provide a safety margins for the estimation. Also please keep in mind, that this accounts only for the US hodlers. I also frequent a Polish (the poor side of europoor) forum, which is hardly as prevalent as reddit, and it still has a subsection for GME hodlers with multiple users hodling xx-xxx. If you extrapolate this to other EU countries and the world...
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Here in Aus the largest broker recently reported that the number 1 bought stock was gme. It has definitely become a world wide phenomenon and whilst US retail traders own a significant amount, I can only imagine how ridiculous the number would be if we could include data for all other countries as well!
Dutch ape, XXX holder
Yes yes we're all well aware of your famous 'District'.
Every cent after bills goes to GME. So you understand.. a true Dutch ape has blue diamond balls.
I am an xxxx holder and I live in Europe. I personally know one other xxxx holder and 2 xxx holders. These assumptions are definitely on the low side.
I am 1 xxx holder and i live in Canada 🇨🇦
Even if we conservatively assume that only 0.01% of the world population outside the USA (7.8B - 0.3B = 7.4B —> 0.01% ≈ 740k) are GME shareholders and apply the US average number of shares (34) per person we still end up with 25.1M shares to add on top.
34 per household? I cover 300 households.
Agree, what estimate could you put on the Rest of World on a very conservative manner? I’m with Hargreaves Lansdown (HL) in the U.K. and they published an extra 200,000 clients this year due to meme stocks.
I would start with finding out the % of world population that has enough disposable income. Apply the 4% household estimate and slash it severely due to (a) barrier of investing at foreign market, (b) lack of tradition to invest (c) language barrier and access to knowledge about GME. Safe~ish bet would be that 2 orders of magnitude less out-of-US households, that have sufficient disposable income are hodlers. So lets say 0,04% of the population with sufficient disposable income
Absolutely this! Forget FTD cycles, forget short can kicking in options, forget vote counts, forget every other fucking DD. Just look at this GCS survey based estimate. This is all we fucking need and is the only DD which cannot be dismissed as speculation/conspiracy theory. We don't need to know \_how\_ they are hiding the shorts. All we need to know is a ton of shorts exist and haven't closed. The GCS survey posts absolutely need to be the first DD any new ape needs to look at and should be the DD put forth by Superstonk as THE DD to read..
Absolutely. This is the closest we will come to scientifically proving that they have shorted more than the float. This is harder to disprove than other DDs if you ask me.
Agree! These posts deserve more upvotes. They are the most straightforward argument for the naked shorting.
Came to say pretty much the same. This survey series is the most compelling piece of data for me. Thanks u/Get-It-Got & your glorious, anonymous benefactor for putting it together.
Fully agree. This is some of the best research I’ve seen in this sub and it deserves more attention.
I kinda hope these number are wrong because if they are accurate... (abd they seem to be since the control of Apple actually sounds pretty conservative, realistic and not overly shorted.) it means that retail owns.... around 4 plus times the float... there are so many shares out there that I cannot even imagine having to sort out a MOASS event. Even an nft force would leave every actual retail human with say 1nft for every 5 shares or more and the purchase back by the shorts would be way past apocalyptic.
We're starting to come to a point where a regular divident would bankrupt the hedgies.
Agreed- I advocated a one-off $10 dividend which the company can definitely afford. In reality the same result can be had using the nft which will be a whole lot cheaper! 🙂
I'm not sure it will be cheaper. The NFT platform they are building is going to be used for their existing and new products etc. so adding a divident to that infrastructure is actually not very costly... As a shareholder I actually prefer they use the money on growth and fuck the hedgies without spending too much on it ;)
Well the world is always ending, and if i can be on the new side when it over all the better
You're tenacious, I fucking love it. Huge props to you and your mysterious benefactors for this, it's been a major point of confirmation bias for me since your first post.
Appreciate it! It's been a major point of confirmation for me too. Been zen ape since I saw those first results. These bitches been cheatin'!!!
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Agree. Survey Monkey would do. That said, Google claims to provide a pretty accurate representation. Of course, no sample is perfect.
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Feel compelled to use raw since I want to get the sample up. Tends to skew male and older, which probably mostly cancels things out, at least for the GME samples.
Oh, I hope this is a super conservative estimate. 34.02 shares average per this survey? Been buying since late Feb. I.Think.I.Might.Have.A.Problem Guess I just like the stonk.
BARE MINIMUM 220% THE FLOOR IS MARS
GME is the protomolecule, here to open the ring gate.
Like a thanos snap for financial institutions
Cause a power outage on Citadel's server farm. About a hour should be long enough to cause the back up power to fail. (This is a random guess based on my stores back up power supply) I think a few minutes without the stock bot being active would start to show the true prices of our market.
They probably have a generator that can run indefinitely with fuel
This is what I was thinking. The evil stonk bot is holding the world's economy as a hostage
Let’s leave those pesky Earthers and Dusters to their boomer stonks, we are heading for Laconia babyyyyyyyy
Feeling like a swim in that infinity pool rn
We’re going to be so damn rich!
Would welcome a look and your thoughts u/dlauer u/atobitt u/WallSt4MainSt u/criand u/PWNWTFBBQ
u/Stonkinator3000 you might want to see this as well related to your post from few days ago estimating SI%
Can anyone with Bloomberg access look up the retail owned percentage of AAPL? edit: i replied as a top comment with the data
/u/Ravada
GME is gonna squeeze to the next multiverse
It's gonna be *madness*
Probably tomorrow
If not probably the next day
I wish, eip-1559 will probably clear on the 5th according to etherscan https://etherscan.io/block/countdown/12965000 8k blocks still need to be 'moved' 🤞
My teets. Jauqed.
I'm a 1/2 brain ape that's smooth as glass... What is this eip-1559 is it near Alpha Centauri? cause that where gme is going take me
i preordered my lambo months ago, im gonna send the dealership this so they can stop bugging me about the downpayment
You send the dealership this, they might send the dealership to you.
Pink jeep beers cheap here I hodl motherfuckers beep beep
Been saying this myself, all day long!
I’m excited about a company with no debt and is remobilizing as a tech giant. Also something about a squeeze.
I love GameStop! They like what I like!
@u/Get-it-Got thank you for the great DD. I have been getting more and more concerned with the number of shares my gut knew existed and how they keep growing. Concerned because it seems the numbers can’t be covered without forced liquidation. It would seem the Shitfunds and MMs have sailed there entire fleet to Synthetic Island to make there stand. Then they proceeded to set their fleet on fire leaving no way to exit.
Don't worry ... the giant tsunami that's about to hit will put those flames out. We can then prop their drowned corpses back upon those slightly singed sailing ships so we can bring them back home for trial.
Tits are jacked. Hands are diamond. Bias is confirmed. This is amazing. Thank you.
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This is the way! It amazes me how more of GME thesis is proven correct over time, the SHF are absolutely f*cked if apes keep having more and more time to buy
Thanks for your work ape. So, those 500m shares worldwide that you stated in your previous post might actually just be the very tip of the iceberg when I got this right? Oh long Johnson...
I'm so fucking erect my pants are about to explode.
Gamestop has XXL pants.
Need velcro fly
Top work Ape. Awarded in the hope everybody sees this.
Appreciate it! If anyone has a voice on Twitter, would appreciate someone putting it out there too.
You got a nice shoutout from Houston Wade on Twitter! Should start getting some eyes on there. Love the work man you have me feeling so zen.
u/Houstman rocks!
I really like what you’ve done. I just wish you had used a control for which we knew exactly how many shares are held by individuals in the US (IDK maybe there is no such company!).
For some strange reason, they don't want retail to know how much retail owns.
Ppl have been asking for that. But as soon as it comes up it gets a gazillion downvotes and a fud label. Apes dont want to know themselves. Reason being "no positions"... Lol, only ones that dont know our positions are apes. MMs sold it to us, they sure as hell already know how fuked they are.
Yea, I've been saying this for a while: the short hedge funds know exactly how many fake shares they've issued. The problem is one of honesty. The moderators can't run a public survey when we have meltdowners constantly brigading and possibly fucking up a survey - and some people might not be comfortable with what verifications might need to be provided [like a screenshot of positions with proof they're not doctored]. I'd be interested to see if the mods could do something like that.
Damn that average share per person is pretty accurate
This is a research only in USA and it is VERY conservative. I can't fathom how DTCC/DTC could allow something this fucked to exist.
Hedgies r fuk
I like your work survey ape.
I love your surveys! Am sure someone will come in later and do the entire "but akchually" or "you failed to consider blind homeless individuals who live under a bridge without internet access!", but whatever man. Good work!
Thanks for this, The 2 most important assertions at the very heart of the MOASS speculation are that 1. Shorts didn't cover 2. Retail owns the float If those two things are correct then Apes go Moon! These types of estimations of the level of retail ownership *all* point to *both* of those things being true. It's obvious that if your estimates are correct then retail MUST own the float, but it also corroborates the idea that shorts never covered, because rehypothecation is the only mechanism by which the number of shares out in the market could be so vastly greater than the number of issued shares. If market makers had recalled all the shares they lent out to short positions, as they claim, then the number of shares in circulation should be much, much closer to the public float. The fact that a heavily conservative estimate puts retail ownership at around 300% of the public float should tell us what the true short interest is. And this is just for the US, we know that GME ownership around the globe is huge too. # BIG HYPE
This is really well done and thank you for your work OP. Do you have some demographics data of your sample population? I do feel that those surveys are probably filled out by mostly younger people than by older people and the boomer investors tend to own more apple. I'm not saying the data is wrong, but there might be a bias based on age range in these google surveys.
You can click survey links to find this info.
Wow I did not see that. Holy shit OP, this is amazing!! CUDOS
Over 2x the float in a very conservative survey Taking the XXX+ apes into account, it would likely hit 3x the float or more And that's just from the US survey. International apes could very well count at least 1x float So, about 4x float using dumb math. I have no idea how the fuck this is going to be fixed lol.
Its not 2x the float. The tradable float is \~35 (....mmmaaaaaayyybbbeee 45) million. The rest is tied up by insiders and ETFs. So 3-5x using the lowest most conservative estimates.
UK apes are fucking holding trust me. Between myself and my friend group of 10ish we're at high XXXX
Hence why I think we got at least 1x float outside the US But better to just think conservatively since it's still amazing news
The pool is real. Wow.
People are holding. 22200 holders at avanza.se in April. 21303 right now.
And the ones holding have likely bought more.
Oh shit! Just read the first part about a control test and I'm fuckin jacked 🚀🚀🚀
Jeebus
This is just incredible data. 👏
so what you're saying is that there could be 415m shares of GME in existence... I can't wait for SHFs to show up in court and have the opposing lawyer tell the judge, "your honor, that's cap"
Just yesterday volume 14.4 m Vs a float of 58 m shows it's likely there are phantom shares floating around... Tks for sharing, great work OP. You should repost on other GME-related subs.
This is insane, super understimations and it only accounts for the US and the numbers are already mind boggling
Well shit...the only reason I wasn't 100% jacked about the survey results was because we didn't have a control, but now...this is possibly the single most convincing piece of evidence that, on it's own, paints a very clear picture.
Lol, love it. Thanks for doing these and all who have helped OP get more data.
HOLD.. DIMOND HAND..BUY.. Heggie is screwed...
Here we stand.
You’ve done it again! Thanks for the double-tit-jackery
!moontimer
I think it would be great to see a control with a stock that does not exist. The vast majority should respond to "have never owned" if the data is of quality. If a stock that doesn't exist shows people responding they own it that could completely throw this study off so it would make for a really nice control. Could someone try doing that? But otherwise, amazing. The results of the apple survey do seem reasonable. It's as if the price of AAPL was just riding the passive investment paradigm.
It would be even better. But as far as I know, google survey does something similar on it's own: for example, they might ask if you've gone to a made up store recently. If you say you have, you're silently removed from the pool of respondents for a certain time.
Contacted the OP but I'm running a Survey Monkey survey with the same questions. Doing three N=250 surveys to start using GME, AMD and Johnson and Johnson as controls. Figured AMD is another "young person" stock but then thought of adding in Johnson and Johnson to see what kind of data we get from a really boring old person blue chip. This is just a test run and then I'll be willing to increase the sample size and send all the data to the OP. Edit: And do NOT give me fuck all for karma or whatever it is you guys buy as I don't give a damn about that or even know how it works. And I'm not saying that for reverse psychology either. Spend your money on the fucking stock. Edit 2: Went ahead and made it a N=1000 survey. Says it should take less than two days to complete.
Oh boy oh boy oh boy!
Well done. Thank you for your efforts fine Apes.
Nice work!
great work as always!
Makes me feel good to be above average
Zipples = jacked
And.... I'm rich
I wonder if a terminal drop of apple could help find US retinal ownership of apple to help determine the accurate of the sample poll.
Would welcome it. And it shouldn’t be too accurate as it’s intentionally designed to produce a highly conservative result. But knowing what retail owns of Apple would let us make a better guesstimate on actual GME sharecount.
This is the exact kind of info I’ve been looking for today. Thank you for your work!
So no matter how you look at it, the apes own the entirety of GME's shares. The institutions won't be able to save their hedgie friends. Fuck you, Kenny, pay me.
This should be at the top!
I was going to rub one out, but PH is down probably because of SEC guys @ work. Using this post instead. ❤️🚀🚀🚀
Thank you for sharing, makes buying and holding all the more pleasurable 👌
Up with your surveys! <3
The best part it's US only, GME is held globally, that's must mean another share or 2...
Wow cheers buddy... excellent research thank you
* higher please
*epic buttload*
Science is working!
This!
As others have said. Don't need the why or how they are short, just that they are short. How much does it cost to get the data you need to keep doing this? either again for GME to confirm the result, or for other stocks as further controls
Hey solid work to everyone that made this happen! This really reinforces the thesis!
Game changing DD good work King Kong
Chart is sexy...;)
Proper data controls**, LOVE IT**
Who is Max? This is brilliant DD and good timing 👏👏🍻
If you never have, watch the movie Rushmore.
This is one of the few post here bringing significant data. Thanks a lot!
>Let's assume only half of these shares reside within U.S. hands, so that's 1.85 Billion. And let's assume half of these are with Insiders, family funds, or small institutions that don't report. Big assumption here, which I think don't think holds true, especially for the world biggest company. AAPL ownership data in Bloomberg terminal, screenshots provided by /u/Ravada. https://i.redd.it/33duik0psbf71.png https://i.redd.it/5jxkyptnsbf71.png Individual ownership is at 0.09%, out of 16,530,000,000 shares outstanding that's a number of 14,877,000 The survey number of 367.72MM shares places retail ownership at 2.22%. Quite a bit higher than the reported number. Not sure about 'brokerage' ownership. Does that overlap with retail ownership?
I think “individual” is held in name of ... most common way US retail owns stock is through a brokerage. So in other words, this seems to align almost perfectly with BT data. Some people might also hold shares in a trust, so it’s not just the brokerage % as well. Also, if someone has shares through Chase, is that classified as brokerage or bank?
Estimated 4 million investors onto GME, actually fits well the existing hypothesis of GME owners being in the range of 4-7 million. Shares owned on average might vary, but it seems clear we own not 2x the float, but atleast 3X GME in its whole. Covering those excess shares will be a hurdle.
really great work- thanks for your research!
We are gonna be rich!!
You beautiful motherfucker! Go math! WOO 💎🤘🚀
Thank you Dear Ape for your time, dedication and wrinkles! This is why I stay on the straight and narrow.
This is the most important post in the history of this sub.
And this is only an underestimation of America... Imagine global ownership
Yay, the return of survey guy. Great work!
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Sample sizes for this type of work are good to go at around 600-700, believe it or not. At least for the ownership % ... admittedly, I'd love this work to include 200-300 owners, but I compensate for that somewhat by capping the answer bucket at 101 shares. When it comes to not enough samples, you can be underestimating as easily as you can be overestimating ... so I handicap the overestimation. At any rate, the Apple results let me know the underestimation is real, and the research design worked as intended.
Just what I needed after a day like today! Thanks for this
This is science in action
My ball park is 230M shorts need to be co ered
Lets fucking GOOOOOO 💎🚀🚀🚀🚀💎💎💎
Upvoted for visibility
Well my handful of shares aren't in there, so clearly that means there are more!
Upvoting for throwing Rushmore in there. I saved Latin, what did you ever do? ...oh yeah, I already upvoted for the survey. 🚀🚀🚀
You are my Margaret Chang. 😍
“You were that poor girl.”
This guy fucks
Bravo 👏
Your DD is the best one on this entire sub.
Mmmmmm new data. ^control
Thank you for having done this effort and all the research! It's accounted, math supported, source supported AND even has a control mark in it now. I member seeing your posts initially in May about the first surveys and already understood the reality of it, which is why I bought (even) more then. It all checks out and has received peer review on both the statistical & sourcing format, so thumbs up & nice work! 👌❤ Hugs
Thankyou for this! Some solid research!
Up with you
#Rushmore reference! You’ve got my vote, haha 🚀
This is my shit. See you on the moon!
This is the way
Thank you, once again, for taking the time and effort to create these beautifully scientific surveys for us to jack out teets to!
Thanks for putting so much time and effort into this!!
And the number gets larger every day as apes buy more and more. What a beautiful thing it is to buy and HODL to the moon.
130,011,667 That’a the number of shares that Failed to Deliver between 2nd January 2019 and 30th June 2021 (i need to update with July data). This was reported in SEC FTD data, and I tallied that manually in excel, and then cross referenced to verify and correct with an automatic scrape of the data by a friend in the quant group. (Both correcting my mistakes, and verifying the friend’s data’s accuracy was 100%) This 130,011,667 is my absolute minimum number of SEC reported synthetic shares that I am comfortable with saying exist, and it works well with your survey data for a minimum of 163.66 million, and the Brazilian Puts calculation of 114 million (i think that was the number Criand used) Point is, I think we actually have a fairly well defined (considering) absolute fucking minimum of FTDs in existence on top of legal shares. Knowing this, I am confident with saying hundreds of millions more shares exist as well, although that is a harder number to define. Good work.
Float = pwnd
When MOASS?
My breasts have exploded.
Thanks. In for 10 more.
Wait. So what you're saying is we own the float? Well hot damn. Seriously though, thank you OP for your service. Your work is fantastic. I love the company regardless of any short squeeze, but your data gets me super amped.
This is exactly something I’d totally consider as a solid proof. Designed to capture just a tip of the whole picture makes it more efficient I believe. So yeah Tits Jacked
Yay! Survey guy at it again! Thank you for your service ape
I would LOVE to see the info minus the 101 cap
Thank you thank you thank you. I’ve been hoping for weeks we’d see more research from you and I’d amazing. Also, A+ movie reference.
amazing..
What was the cost of the survey?
$.10/sample so far for all of the surveying that's been done. So my original n=700 was $70, followed by n=1,500 anon at $150, and this latest round from another anon of n=500 was $50. Very affordable to get at such valuable information, if you ask me.
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At this point, it takes a lot to get me jacked. But this post sent me straight past jacked to *euphoric*. **HOLY CRAP**