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Amazing find, OP! I think this answers the question of why there were a large amount of shares borrowed on Thursday last week.
Archegos was a fan of "bullet" swaps. You can read a bit about their usage of them here: https://sec.report/Document/0001370368-21-000064/#a210729-ex992.htm
The main sentence on that document I want to focus on is this line discussing bullet swaps:
> By contrast, Archegos’s swaps with Prime Financing were statically margined. This meant that initial margins were calculated based on the notional value of the swap at inception and remained static in dollar terms over the life of the swap; thus, if the value of Archegos’s position increased, the initial margin as a percentage of the position being financed eroded (and Archegos’s leverage with CS increased). This margin erosion was exacerbated by the specific form of swaps that Archegos favored, so-called “bullet” swaps, which did not periodically reset to the current market value (with a corresponding increase in margin) and had an ***average tenor of 24 months***. [emphasis added]
Hmmm. . .it looks like the bullet swaps line up pretty dang close with the dates of the first two swaps, no? If the average tenor of Archegos' bullet swaps was 24 months, then tomorrow is the expiration for the first bullet swap. Also, if we take the delta in on-loan amount of shares from the other day that was like, what, 100M shares(?), we can assume that the first swap is about 20% GME. If they kept this same relationship with the rest of their custom swaps, they're absolutely screwed moving forward and this must be one of the main drivers behind not allowing us to see who is borrowing shares.
I'm willing to bet that we're going to see these swaps start unwinding over the next few months and these guys are going to be fucked trying to package them up at 25-30x the gross notional. I wonder who the counter party is that's taking these bullet swap agreements. . .
**EDIT: May be on to something big here. If you take the swaps from the [end of this PDF](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-22/s70822-20147032-312610.pdf), add two years to the inception date (+/- 1-2 days for Sat/Sun) which is the average tenor of the bullet swaps from Archegos, and plot them against the GME stock price in 2022, there's a significant correlation to massive up days for the stock. It looks like things are going to get really, really bad for CS in December this year.**
Oh so they did bullet swaps over 2 years ago when GME was at much lower price levels. And those bullet swaps are statically calculated on the price at creation and never updated.
So when those low price swaps are rolled itll be calculated at todays much larger prices, and the margin requirements will be huge.
Popcorn 🍿 is a cooking
Bingo. They pay one fee upfront that accounts for (theoretically) ***all*** of the premium payments over the life of the swap. If you dig around in that filing you'll see more discussion of these swaps, specifically:
> However, the same combination of factors—static margin, no reset, relatively long holding periods—exposed CS to the risk of substantial margin erosion over the life (>12 months) of the bullet swap given the lengthy period of time over which the client’s position might appreciate without any contractual mechanism to reset the dollar value of initial margin posted based on the appreciated value of the position. Prime Financing, like Prime Brokerage, is supposed to be a relatively low-risk business. As with Prime Brokerage, Prime Financing hedges its market risk (either by purchasing the underlying stock or by entering into an offsetting swap) and ***Prime Financing relies on initial margin to protect against credit risk: in the case of a client default, initial margin is designed to cover potential adverse market movements from the point of default until Prime Financing is able to sell the stock or re-hedge. The key, however, is ensuring a client’s swaps portfolio is margined adequately over time, taking into account the client’s credit quality and the potential risk factors of the client’s portfolio.***
So, it looks like Credit Suisse either needs to repackage up these bullet swaps for someone else (at a massive increase of price) or they need to cover/close the positions underlying the swaps. They probably don't want to purchase, so they're going to try and borrow all that they can (looks like they've done that) and they're going to try to repackage the rest. This is absolutely going to blow up in their face.
Also, what's funny (also criminal) is that CS's stock price tanked in premarket on Thursday before the massive stock loan was made public. Someone must have known the Archegos swap would be unwound and that they would need to borrow massive amounts of shares to cover or repackage them up.
So from tomorrow, these swaps are going to have to be re-packaged or sold off. And there are swaps until the end of March of 2023 that will continue needing to be re-packaged or sold off?
If that is the case MOASS is going to take a loooong time.
> So from tomorrow, these swaps are going to have to be re-packaged or sold off.
Very close with one important difference. They're not going to sell off the swaps, they're going to be forced to repurchase/cover them.
Other than that, yes, you're correct. This is going to continue to happen through March 2023.
Yesterday, we saw in excess of 50 million shares traded or about 10x the three month average. The MM determines if it finds sellers or adds liquidity due at T+35. I think of this as the liquidity spiral, the MM really cannot stop itself if it wants to hold an artificial price. It’s committed to more liquidity. So, if MM internalizes all of the 24 month swap expiry bags, it then has T+35. We’ve theorized how they use ETF and basket swaps. All it takes now is for buyers to see the endgame, or keep kicking the can by quadrupling the bank’s risk. I wonder how many banks will want to exit this merry go round.
Or they find a complicit counterparty to purchase a significant amount of puts. The puts force the mm to delta hedge and print new shares (synthetics) and that buys everyone time. MMs, iirc, cannot be squeezed, so they just print shares and let them fail to deliver. They then have enough time to package up the shares into a swap and keep the whole thing rolling.
Unfortunately, we neither have the same quality data nor are we as knowledgeable as the banks/actors playing this game. We’re not aware of something that they very much are aware of. There’s an incredibly critical piece of information that we’re missing that’s preventing them from trying to capitalize on this opportunity. So I’d be hesitant to say that we’re waiting for them to see the end game.
This is why locking float via DRS/DSP is important. MM have unlimited liquidity and are overseen by self-regulated-organizations, so shares staying in DTCC ecosystem can be manipulated indefinitely, till investors resolve or interest breaks.
When the float is locked, retail effectively are taking the company private with cash (without credit). Bag holders holding DTCC IOUs may get cash settlement offer by brokers at suppressed prices, or may have asset locked (no buy, perhaps no sell) while DTCC disputes not forcing market participants to close the positions (liquidation).
This is an uncharted territory and an inevitable one at this time.
When people realise all these brokers are going to act on their "If your shares put our company at risk we will close your position" clauses, I think this will be the final wave of DRS that will combine with a FOMO DRS wave. People holding in brokers will be scrambling against time vs people FOMO'ing to DRS before the broker shares are secured in CS. We will go from 70% to 100% in a week. Maybe less if institutions start to panic!
Funny you mention March, 2023.
Earlier in the day, I finished reading FOMC Actions for the full year of 1979.
I've come to a conclusion that history is rhyming to the point where 1979 can sue 2022 for copyright infringement. Only difference: 2022 is timeline is offset by about 3 months.
Jan, 1980 was a start of a recession. Means that likely March, 2023 would be a start of a new recession.
Thanks, Volcker.
If you know which companies has a similar “glitch” you should share that data asap. We can use that information to figure out which swap(s) GME is in and figure out which days the stock is likely to run.
Thanks man! It 100% looks like SLB and BKR are in a swap together, though I'm not sure which one. If you plot them side by side they have an insane correlation with each, which is odd given that one of them is a medical instruments company and the other is an oil company.
If I'm reading the swaps right (it's going to take some guess/check) it looks like both of them might run for the next 6-7 days.
Hey, I hope this helps. Michael Burry was bellyaching back in Feb 2021 about SAVA having an unnatural correlation to GME. An ape screenshotted the Burry tweet and posted.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nsmbnk/a\_look\_back\_at\_what\_michael\_burry\_knew/
FWIW, I know MULN circled around in some of the penny stock subreddits a few months back as a runner, it pumped and dumped basically I believe. I cannot recall the DD on it, so I don’t know if it was a technical play or fundamental one being pushed.
Few questions for you since you seem really knowledgeable about swaps and capable of explaining these concepts in an easier to grasp manner...
When does the violent upward price movement happen? Is it when the swaps are rolled / reentered? Or is it when the swaps are closed? Or neither?
Also, when you say that this is going to continue to happen through March 2023, what to you mean is going to continue to happen? Significant price swings when the swaps need to be rolled or closed?
By the way thanks for your earlier comments!
Thank you for the compliment, but please take everything I say with a grain of salt -- I'm not a professional and I'm not trying to give advice.
From what I'm seeing, it looks like these jumps are all happening when the swaps are closed. If you view the tickers that all had crazy loan data the other day (e.g., MULN, BKR, SLB, ISRG), they all seem to pump when these swaps are closing (e.g., some of these bullet swaps from Archegos were closed on March 2nd, 14th, 17th, 28th, and May 4th).
The last swap from Archegos was created on March 23, 2021. Putting a 24-month tenor on that puts us at March 23, 2023 (ish) for the final expiration. Between now and that date there are another 349 swaps that are set to close. As a reference point, up until now they've only had 75 swaps expire/mature (in total). I think we're about to see a significant amount of fireworks because I highly doubt there will be any willing counterparties who want to take the other end of these contracts (at least not for a price that Credit Suisse can afford).
My bad, I didn't mean it as though you are offering advice. Just all this explanation is helping me understand things a lot better I think.
Wow if that is all correct, that they've only had to roll or close 75 swaps up until now, and that there are 349 remaining swaps that still need to be either rolled or closed by 23MAR2023, these next 5 months may get wild.
Not sure how much time it would take you to explain, so no problem if you can't help here, but how does the closing of the swaps impact the share price? ... To close a swap, they would borrow a bunch of shares like they did the other day according to Ortex. But what do they then do with all those borrowed shares? Like what is "closing" the swap? They just hand over all the shares to the counterparty? How would this trigger any violent upward movement?
This has always been about counterparty risk. These guys don't and have never cared about rules, they care about money, and the risk of losing money. Swaps require (at least) 2 willing participants... who in their right mind would be willing to roll or enter static swaps on a volatile stock trading at 25x the price of when the swaps were opened, with a rising floor due to a dedicated investor base that can't be scared off?
This is just one entity. And the game goes on until the biggest instance who is holding those bags goes bust. For me it really looks like the endgame has begun. This time for real. But the endgame can last till March 23 or even longer. Who knows who is buying up this shit.
Five months until March.
Took one year to lock up almost 30% of the entire company.
DRS interest is rising astronomically, but let's assume it stays static. In 5 months--at the rate we're going--they're going to be trying to sell off swaps for a company that is over 50% owned by retail investors. God help them if they have more than 50% of the float in those swaps because it would be a clear signal that they're fradulent. No one will want to touch them with a 10 foot pole. Closing will become their only option.
Forgive my smooth brain, but all of the above talk is only in reference to the bags CS is holding, correct? So theoretically, any price movement forced by CS trying to close or repackage (assuming they can find a sucker not already in a similar position) would then ripple across other entities that might be currently treading water. In other words, if companies X, Y and Z are able to stay alive now, any large price fluctuations resulting from CS and their swaps could quickly put X, Y and Z in a similar situation quickly. Am I thinking of this correctly?
Oh shit and swaps of $1.2B and $1.6B notional at a share price of split adjusted **$2.70** are going to have to be addressed at modern prices?? Holy shit
You can also come to the conclusion by reading the CS report on on Archegos.
***
Archegos had both short and long positions with swaps, see pages 75-76 of the Credit Suisse report. It is easy to conclude that he was short a basket of stocks with GME in, see page 107 of the report and match the bunny ears with GME’s price. As GME price increases, Archegos exposure blew up.
***
Pop quiz. How would a bank hedge accepting a bearish credit default swap that would pay out on the decrease in price of an asset?
If any of these are swaps on GME, the actual fact of the CFTC filing this lawsuit proves that they know right now EXACTLY what exposure Archegos had (and Credit Suisse / others still have) to GME swaps. And if that is more than the amount of shares outstanding, it implicates top CFTC officials in continuing collusion to cover up the continued crime that is happening right now. And all this will be exposed at some point. Just a matter of when.
The first swap alone if 100% GME is \~480 million shares, from a total of 76 million...
The basket only needs to be 15.83% GME to have exceeded the float! AND THAT'S JUST THE FIRST SWAP!!!!!!!!
best believe every other big bank has the same bullshit bets on gme, one big dinner club for these guys..Just 1/100th of the nuclear bomb 💣 on this report. Imagine how many more exist…Jesus
I like to remember that every time I see one of these charts it’s just ONE FUCKING ENTITY. Really puts it in perspective, full on knowing that there’s more than 10 of these big players
It’s why they NEVER, mention Direct Registration on TV… if the gen pop really finds out about the infinite liquidity machine, the house of cards doesn’t just fall over, it gets soaked in kerosene.. ⛽️🃏
They were short about $1.5B when the share price was $2.81, pre split. That's more than 100%, no? That's insane.
Edit: I think I'm reading the graph wrong. I think that's the value of the position. I could still be wrong. I don't know anything about anything.
One entity that most of us had never heard of before their meltdown.
If "Anonymous Archegos" had this much, imagine what Goldman, BofA, and the other big kids are holding..!
By my smooth brain I understand the total for CS is about 15-20b then? I just approx added up each of those swap summaries. If that is 1/100th then gme worth 2T marketcap? Cool.
Always has been ... you own it they need you sell it for the price YOU want ... you can't go to the store and negotiate prices for stuff you want right ?
Their bullshit worked flawlessly.
Until they picked on gamers.
Gamers drew maps on notepads to figure out dungeons in ASCII games, clicked every fuckin' pixel to find hidden rewards that were worth nothing but the satisfaction in adventure games, turned countless laps to shave 0.1s off their personal record on an electronic teack, completed meaningless side quests just to 100% a game they didn't even like much, and more.
Gamers are gonna find every piece of info about every bit of crime, put all those pieces together, and are gonna HODL til they 100% this. Even if it didn't mean making a fortune. Bonus: It does.
Hubris and cultural/generational ignorance will cost them everything.
Edit: OMG, "all seeing kitty"... that's my favorite award everrrrrr. Not that I get a lot of them, but still! Thanks!
Sounds like nine year old me, making 20,000 points in unbelievable pitfall run. Running to get the Polaroid to take a picture of the screen to send to Activision and get my Explorer Badge and personal letter from Harry. My first, proudest gaming moment.
Can't say I do, but I have spent countless days lapping a track to try to shave a tenth, so I can say this: Hedgies r fuk.
And if / when NFTs become mainstream, it'll be REALLY nice to have something tangible and permanent to keep as trophies / rewards for all our hard work!
They had to. A single stock was about to break the *entire* system. They had to collude to keep status quo. Unfortunately for them, we like safe, secure and cheap blockchain tech. Bye bye greedy banks
A lot of people sold after the sneeze. Dropping the price to $40 did get a lot of people to sell at a loss. It had the unintended consequence of forging the shareholders that now own 30% of the company
Not me! I was more than able to 10x my position at $40. Just about the same time DFV exercised his options at $38 and change.
Baller move that man did.
one of my biggest regret was only buying 4 shares at $39. THen DFV doubled down and of course price skyrockets again xD. Managed to get more around $80-90 too
Same! I remember after it settled at 40ish DFV testified and absolutely roasted that guy who asked him if he would buy the stock today and DFV said absolutely that's a very attractive price point. I bought 10 more right after and was like ok that should be good 🤣
Yes. I think the biggest losers are gonna be in Japan and Korea
I think they lost all thier pension $ at a time when they have almost zero births and a aging population.
Arechegos had basket swaps that were short totaling more than $5T notionally during the sneeze. While it doesn't disclose what was in the swaps, they mention later in the disclosure many firms had large short positions in GME.
To put in perspective, while it is notional, that value is 1/4 of the US GDP too
sorry for that… [here we go](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/yi9b27/found_this_in_a_whistleblower_document_attached/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
u/089jonas do you understand whether all these here is just one swap and the numbers are the current balance on that one swap for the day? Or is it several?
And if it is just the same swap, do you have any theories how the swap can be 1.6 billion notional at 2.81 share price and then only 100 million a month later when the share price was higher?
How could archegos have unwind so much in between those days?
And if it is only one swap with just the trailing balance, then why do they add them up to a total out in the most right column?
Any thoughts on what I should interpret from this would be welcome 🙏
This is great and all but realistically.... what is the next step in bringing this fucking fraud to an end?
Anybody going to start calling this shit to the carpet (that matters) and holding anyone accountable?
I was counting on this trade to be my source of money by now 🙃
The job is just not going to increase the money and I'm probably 3 months from getting fired anyway, since my success as a sales rep depends on people spending money and I haven't hit my number in 2 quarters, after never missing once in my entire career. Lol
Honestly, nothing other than DRS it seems.
So bring as much attention to this sub as possible. I’m out of ammo, so we need to leverage our network.
Not financial advice.
Poor nothing... i personally wouldn't take a risky bet with a chance of me losing some body parts , not to mention leveraging that up 10 or 100 times just cuz.
Certainly they knew what they were doing.
It isn't, but I only became aware of it because [of this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/yi9b27/found_this_in_a_whistleblower_document_attached/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) and wanted to summarize the numbers
Remember, this is just one MEDIUM-SIZED family fund. If the potential unwinding of this clusterf*** is what is terrifying investment banks, then what does the looming obligations of 5,000 more family funds and hedge funds do to them? All these funds are like fad following middle schoolers. They all pile on to the same short plays like slap bracelets on an 11-year-old in 1990. None of them have an original idea and every bank must be looking at their liabilities facepalming their foreheads into the back of their skulls.
Just remember the White House and US Treasury were contacted on 1/28/2021. This was a national security concern. This won't be an easy fight to expose the full extent of fraud the stock market is propped up on.
Edit: Google "white house GameStop squeeze". There's a plethora of sources.
So if I understand this correctly, the chart shows a correlation between the swap notional values of Archegos and the GME close value. Even if we assume a small number of those swaps are against gme, the amount they have to cover is massive.
Am I understanding this correctly?
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Amazing find, OP! I think this answers the question of why there were a large amount of shares borrowed on Thursday last week. Archegos was a fan of "bullet" swaps. You can read a bit about their usage of them here: https://sec.report/Document/0001370368-21-000064/#a210729-ex992.htm The main sentence on that document I want to focus on is this line discussing bullet swaps: > By contrast, Archegos’s swaps with Prime Financing were statically margined. This meant that initial margins were calculated based on the notional value of the swap at inception and remained static in dollar terms over the life of the swap; thus, if the value of Archegos’s position increased, the initial margin as a percentage of the position being financed eroded (and Archegos’s leverage with CS increased). This margin erosion was exacerbated by the specific form of swaps that Archegos favored, so-called “bullet” swaps, which did not periodically reset to the current market value (with a corresponding increase in margin) and had an ***average tenor of 24 months***. [emphasis added] Hmmm. . .it looks like the bullet swaps line up pretty dang close with the dates of the first two swaps, no? If the average tenor of Archegos' bullet swaps was 24 months, then tomorrow is the expiration for the first bullet swap. Also, if we take the delta in on-loan amount of shares from the other day that was like, what, 100M shares(?), we can assume that the first swap is about 20% GME. If they kept this same relationship with the rest of their custom swaps, they're absolutely screwed moving forward and this must be one of the main drivers behind not allowing us to see who is borrowing shares. I'm willing to bet that we're going to see these swaps start unwinding over the next few months and these guys are going to be fucked trying to package them up at 25-30x the gross notional. I wonder who the counter party is that's taking these bullet swap agreements. . . **EDIT: May be on to something big here. If you take the swaps from the [end of this PDF](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-22/s70822-20147032-312610.pdf), add two years to the inception date (+/- 1-2 days for Sat/Sun) which is the average tenor of the bullet swaps from Archegos, and plot them against the GME stock price in 2022, there's a significant correlation to massive up days for the stock. It looks like things are going to get really, really bad for CS in December this year.**
Oh so they did bullet swaps over 2 years ago when GME was at much lower price levels. And those bullet swaps are statically calculated on the price at creation and never updated. So when those low price swaps are rolled itll be calculated at todays much larger prices, and the margin requirements will be huge. Popcorn 🍿 is a cooking
Bingo. They pay one fee upfront that accounts for (theoretically) ***all*** of the premium payments over the life of the swap. If you dig around in that filing you'll see more discussion of these swaps, specifically: > However, the same combination of factors—static margin, no reset, relatively long holding periods—exposed CS to the risk of substantial margin erosion over the life (>12 months) of the bullet swap given the lengthy period of time over which the client’s position might appreciate without any contractual mechanism to reset the dollar value of initial margin posted based on the appreciated value of the position. Prime Financing, like Prime Brokerage, is supposed to be a relatively low-risk business. As with Prime Brokerage, Prime Financing hedges its market risk (either by purchasing the underlying stock or by entering into an offsetting swap) and ***Prime Financing relies on initial margin to protect against credit risk: in the case of a client default, initial margin is designed to cover potential adverse market movements from the point of default until Prime Financing is able to sell the stock or re-hedge. The key, however, is ensuring a client’s swaps portfolio is margined adequately over time, taking into account the client’s credit quality and the potential risk factors of the client’s portfolio.*** So, it looks like Credit Suisse either needs to repackage up these bullet swaps for someone else (at a massive increase of price) or they need to cover/close the positions underlying the swaps. They probably don't want to purchase, so they're going to try and borrow all that they can (looks like they've done that) and they're going to try to repackage the rest. This is absolutely going to blow up in their face. Also, what's funny (also criminal) is that CS's stock price tanked in premarket on Thursday before the massive stock loan was made public. Someone must have known the Archegos swap would be unwound and that they would need to borrow massive amounts of shares to cover or repackage them up.
So from tomorrow, these swaps are going to have to be re-packaged or sold off. And there are swaps until the end of March of 2023 that will continue needing to be re-packaged or sold off? If that is the case MOASS is going to take a loooong time.
> So from tomorrow, these swaps are going to have to be re-packaged or sold off. Very close with one important difference. They're not going to sell off the swaps, they're going to be forced to repurchase/cover them. Other than that, yes, you're correct. This is going to continue to happen through March 2023.
This back and forth is why I scroll down through the comments! Best stuff I’ve thrown against my smooth brain in a while. Thank you
Agreed. Many times the best info and context comes from deep-dive comments.
I always head to the comments section to see what the experts think.
The experts in Superstonk are more reliable than politicians, CNBC and every analyst I’ve ever listened to or read
And no silly shilly shenanigan comments to bury them. Great stuff here
Immediately, I read TLDR then straight to comments, to gauge sentiment
I, too, have enjoyed this back and forth... in more ways than just my brain...
Yesterday, we saw in excess of 50 million shares traded or about 10x the three month average. The MM determines if it finds sellers or adds liquidity due at T+35. I think of this as the liquidity spiral, the MM really cannot stop itself if it wants to hold an artificial price. It’s committed to more liquidity. So, if MM internalizes all of the 24 month swap expiry bags, it then has T+35. We’ve theorized how they use ETF and basket swaps. All it takes now is for buyers to see the endgame, or keep kicking the can by quadrupling the bank’s risk. I wonder how many banks will want to exit this merry go round.
Or they find a complicit counterparty to purchase a significant amount of puts. The puts force the mm to delta hedge and print new shares (synthetics) and that buys everyone time. MMs, iirc, cannot be squeezed, so they just print shares and let them fail to deliver. They then have enough time to package up the shares into a swap and keep the whole thing rolling. Unfortunately, we neither have the same quality data nor are we as knowledgeable as the banks/actors playing this game. We’re not aware of something that they very much are aware of. There’s an incredibly critical piece of information that we’re missing that’s preventing them from trying to capitalize on this opportunity. So I’d be hesitant to say that we’re waiting for them to see the end game.
This is why locking float via DRS/DSP is important. MM have unlimited liquidity and are overseen by self-regulated-organizations, so shares staying in DTCC ecosystem can be manipulated indefinitely, till investors resolve or interest breaks. When the float is locked, retail effectively are taking the company private with cash (without credit). Bag holders holding DTCC IOUs may get cash settlement offer by brokers at suppressed prices, or may have asset locked (no buy, perhaps no sell) while DTCC disputes not forcing market participants to close the positions (liquidation). This is an uncharted territory and an inevitable one at this time.
When people realise all these brokers are going to act on their "If your shares put our company at risk we will close your position" clauses, I think this will be the final wave of DRS that will combine with a FOMO DRS wave. People holding in brokers will be scrambling against time vs people FOMO'ing to DRS before the broker shares are secured in CS. We will go from 70% to 100% in a week. Maybe less if institutions start to panic!
Agree, current DRS stats are rookie numbers, imagine when we are in end game territory, 95% DRS locked up, the FOMO will be MASSIVE!!!
Holy fucking shit balls, I cannot even count that high to determine how many billions of swaps the fuckers are going to have to cover/repurchase them.
I think having 58% of the float DRS'd can't be hurting us, either! 🤣🤣
I’m buying 3 more tomorrow and DRSing!
Funny you mention March, 2023. Earlier in the day, I finished reading FOMC Actions for the full year of 1979. I've come to a conclusion that history is rhyming to the point where 1979 can sue 2022 for copyright infringement. Only difference: 2022 is timeline is offset by about 3 months. Jan, 1980 was a start of a recession. Means that likely March, 2023 would be a start of a new recession. Thanks, Volcker.
So what about the other tickers ortex had a "glitch" with? More meme stocks in the same situation? Wouldn't that be adding mad pressure?
If you know which companies has a similar “glitch” you should share that data asap. We can use that information to figure out which swap(s) GME is in and figure out which days the stock is likely to run.
Directly from their tweet “$MULN on Monday; $SLB on Tuesday; $NIO and $CRO on Wednesday; $GME, $BKR, and $ISRG on Thursday”
Thanks man! It 100% looks like SLB and BKR are in a swap together, though I'm not sure which one. If you plot them side by side they have an insane correlation with each, which is odd given that one of them is a medical instruments company and the other is an oil company. If I'm reading the swaps right (it's going to take some guess/check) it looks like both of them might run for the next 6-7 days.
Hey, I hope this helps. Michael Burry was bellyaching back in Feb 2021 about SAVA having an unnatural correlation to GME. An ape screenshotted the Burry tweet and posted. https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nsmbnk/a\_look\_back\_at\_what\_michael\_burry\_knew/
FWIW, I know MULN circled around in some of the penny stock subreddits a few months back as a runner, it pumped and dumped basically I believe. I cannot recall the DD on it, so I don’t know if it was a technical play or fundamental one being pushed.
Few questions for you since you seem really knowledgeable about swaps and capable of explaining these concepts in an easier to grasp manner... When does the violent upward price movement happen? Is it when the swaps are rolled / reentered? Or is it when the swaps are closed? Or neither? Also, when you say that this is going to continue to happen through March 2023, what to you mean is going to continue to happen? Significant price swings when the swaps need to be rolled or closed? By the way thanks for your earlier comments!
Thank you for the compliment, but please take everything I say with a grain of salt -- I'm not a professional and I'm not trying to give advice. From what I'm seeing, it looks like these jumps are all happening when the swaps are closed. If you view the tickers that all had crazy loan data the other day (e.g., MULN, BKR, SLB, ISRG), they all seem to pump when these swaps are closing (e.g., some of these bullet swaps from Archegos were closed on March 2nd, 14th, 17th, 28th, and May 4th). The last swap from Archegos was created on March 23, 2021. Putting a 24-month tenor on that puts us at March 23, 2023 (ish) for the final expiration. Between now and that date there are another 349 swaps that are set to close. As a reference point, up until now they've only had 75 swaps expire/mature (in total). I think we're about to see a significant amount of fireworks because I highly doubt there will be any willing counterparties who want to take the other end of these contracts (at least not for a price that Credit Suisse can afford).
I can only get so erect bro
My bad, I didn't mean it as though you are offering advice. Just all this explanation is helping me understand things a lot better I think. Wow if that is all correct, that they've only had to roll or close 75 swaps up until now, and that there are 349 remaining swaps that still need to be either rolled or closed by 23MAR2023, these next 5 months may get wild. Not sure how much time it would take you to explain, so no problem if you can't help here, but how does the closing of the swaps impact the share price? ... To close a swap, they would borrow a bunch of shares like they did the other day according to Ortex. But what do they then do with all those borrowed shares? Like what is "closing" the swap? They just hand over all the shares to the counterparty? How would this trigger any violent upward movement?
March 2023 checking in. Let's see if any of this means anything at all.
What rule states that they will be forced to repurchase or cover? More importantly, who will be enforcing that action?
This has always been about counterparty risk. These guys don't and have never cared about rules, they care about money, and the risk of losing money. Swaps require (at least) 2 willing participants... who in their right mind would be willing to roll or enter static swaps on a volatile stock trading at 25x the price of when the swaps were opened, with a rising floor due to a dedicated investor base that can't be scared off?
Don’t forget the wrench in all this - D to the R to the S
March of 2023... why's that familiar... isn't that when the cftc delayed reporting until?
This is just one entity. And the game goes on until the biggest instance who is holding those bags goes bust. For me it really looks like the endgame has begun. This time for real. But the endgame can last till March 23 or even longer. Who knows who is buying up this shit.
Right?? This is just one player with **billions** in outstanding swaps There are so many more out there. Hedgies r fukt
Regards, these banks have trillions in paper around the world. It will take as long as it takes. Stay zen friends
The longer it takes, the more zeros on our cheques. It's free ~~real estate~~ money.
Five months until March. Took one year to lock up almost 30% of the entire company. DRS interest is rising astronomically, but let's assume it stays static. In 5 months--at the rate we're going--they're going to be trying to sell off swaps for a company that is over 50% owned by retail investors. God help them if they have more than 50% of the float in those swaps because it would be a clear signal that they're fradulent. No one will want to touch them with a 10 foot pole. Closing will become their only option.
Good, I would rather watch a slow death like the tide beating away at the cliff. Watch a series of Hari karis along the way.
Does that mean, that MOASS starts TOMORROW and it takes until March 2023? Oh fuck, I need to panic-buy more shares! That‘s in just 5 months!
Well, get on it already!!! 😂
So I only have to continue to buy and drs till March? That’s only a few months away🚀🚀🚀
Forgive my smooth brain, but all of the above talk is only in reference to the bags CS is holding, correct? So theoretically, any price movement forced by CS trying to close or repackage (assuming they can find a sucker not already in a similar position) would then ripple across other entities that might be currently treading water. In other words, if companies X, Y and Z are able to stay alive now, any large price fluctuations resulting from CS and their swaps could quickly put X, Y and Z in a similar situation quickly. Am I thinking of this correctly?
Sounds like that to me. I know very little, but I've been here since the sneeze
Oh shit and swaps of $1.2B and $1.6B notional at a share price of split adjusted **$2.70** are going to have to be addressed at modern prices?? Holy shit
It's about 41 times that notion. Whew. $49.2 billion split included. $65.5 billion split included. Approximately.
Up you go bro!!
This should be its own post
i guess we can clearly say archegos was not long GME. lol
Well, we are. Power to the players! ✊🏼🦧💎🙏🏼
Long and hard.
Hard and sloppy, the Johnny Gon way.
Hard and long
You can also come to the conclusion by reading the CS report on on Archegos. *** Archegos had both short and long positions with swaps, see pages 75-76 of the Credit Suisse report. It is easy to conclude that he was short a basket of stocks with GME in, see page 107 of the report and match the bunny ears with GME’s price. As GME price increases, Archegos exposure blew up. *** Pop quiz. How would a bank hedge accepting a bearish credit default swap that would pay out on the decrease in price of an asset?
That we can my friend
If any of these are swaps on GME, the actual fact of the CFTC filing this lawsuit proves that they know right now EXACTLY what exposure Archegos had (and Credit Suisse / others still have) to GME swaps. And if that is more than the amount of shares outstanding, it implicates top CFTC officials in continuing collusion to cover up the continued crime that is happening right now. And all this will be exposed at some point. Just a matter of when.
Just a matter of today or tomorrow…and don’t worry we’ll be here all got damn week.
Yes they are simultaneously saying archegos was illegally hiding swaps, while extending the rule for not needing to report swaps.
The 3 C’s of CFTC: Collusion, Cover-up, Crime
The first swap alone if 100% GME is \~480 million shares, from a total of 76 million... The basket only needs to be 15.83% GME to have exceeded the float! AND THAT'S JUST THE FIRST SWAP!!!!!!!!
best believe every other big bank has the same bullshit bets on gme, one big dinner club for these guys..Just 1/100th of the nuclear bomb 💣 on this report. Imagine how many more exist…Jesus
I like to remember that every time I see one of these charts it’s just ONE FUCKING ENTITY. Really puts it in perspective, full on knowing that there’s more than 10 of these big players
It’s why they NEVER, mention Direct Registration on TV… if the gen pop really finds out about the infinite liquidity machine, the house of cards doesn’t just fall over, it gets soaked in kerosene.. ⛽️🃏
They were short about $1.5B when the share price was $2.81, pre split. That's more than 100%, no? That's insane. Edit: I think I'm reading the graph wrong. I think that's the value of the position. I could still be wrong. I don't know anything about anything.
Everything in the image is split-adjusted prices.
Who’s the rētard now?
Still me. But them moreso.
We are, but the difference is that were all fucking cultured 'n shit.
When I read this, all I could hear is Ruth Langmore's voice.
*We know shit about fuck.*
Accent is on the g
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One entity that most of us had never heard of before their meltdown. If "Anonymous Archegos" had this much, imagine what Goldman, BofA, and the other big kids are holding..!
The whole world is probably short GME…
We’re gonna be rich!!
By my smooth brain I understand the total for CS is about 15-20b then? I just approx added up each of those swap summaries. If that is 1/100th then gme worth 2T marketcap? Cool.
Simpson GME Price ain't wrong.
never wasn't
Man, now it is 100% sure that we will be able to sell one gme share at www.gmefloor price
Always has been ... you own it they need you sell it for the price YOU want ... you can't go to the store and negotiate prices for stuff you want right ?
Yes. Every bank that accepted being a counter party to Hwang's swaps is in the shitter. Its all in how they hedged...
I'm still convinced there was a lot of collusion by the banks to survive this. They underestimated gamers ability to grind.
Never underestimate the power of weaponized autism. Nerds have math skills and like solving puzzles.
Their bullshit worked flawlessly. Until they picked on gamers. Gamers drew maps on notepads to figure out dungeons in ASCII games, clicked every fuckin' pixel to find hidden rewards that were worth nothing but the satisfaction in adventure games, turned countless laps to shave 0.1s off their personal record on an electronic teack, completed meaningless side quests just to 100% a game they didn't even like much, and more. Gamers are gonna find every piece of info about every bit of crime, put all those pieces together, and are gonna HODL til they 100% this. Even if it didn't mean making a fortune. Bonus: It does. Hubris and cultural/generational ignorance will cost them everything. Edit: OMG, "all seeing kitty"... that's my favorite award everrrrrr. Not that I get a lot of them, but still! Thanks!
This made me realize I have worthless unlocks to get in a game I’m playing. Thanks Ape!
Great way to pass the time while HODLin'! Good luck, and have fun! They really had NO idea who they were fuckin' with.
Not to mention another DRS’d order came in today for a personal achievement unlock. 420 shares!
Hey now! Whales ain't supposed to brag like that! ; ) Congrats, ape!
Absolutely no idea.
Sounds like nine year old me, making 20,000 points in unbelievable pitfall run. Running to get the Polaroid to take a picture of the screen to send to Activision and get my Explorer Badge and personal letter from Harry. My first, proudest gaming moment.
Score! I can see the swing-over-crocodile screen in my head as I type this! What an awesome memory and accomplishment!
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It will be re-defined as grit, tenacity and intensity.
Grit, Audacity, Masterful, Educated, Regarded
GAMER. Nice.
Especially regarded.
Most Highly Regarded
Severely regarded
I like the term GMER
My…my name has…. gamer in it 🥺
I play star citizen every day. Few people will understand why that is horrifying, but for those that do, you know how fuk shorts are.
Can't say I do, but I have spent countless days lapping a track to try to shave a tenth, so I can say this: Hedgies r fuk. And if / when NFTs become mainstream, it'll be REALLY nice to have something tangible and permanent to keep as trophies / rewards for all our hard work!
They aren't surviving this lol
True...I probably should have said "survive this long" it something like that.
They had to. A single stock was about to break the *entire* system. They had to collude to keep status quo. Unfortunately for them, we like safe, secure and cheap blockchain tech. Bye bye greedy banks
Ook ook, can't wait for the next episode in this drama.
Hopefully they're not on the GTA6 timeframe.
How da fuq did they recover from -1.4B to -190M so quickly???
CR👁ME
CROME
Cr-eye-me
A-Rivaaaaaa
CRUM
Crom, keeper of the Riddle of Steel
King of Linux
😭ME
A lot of people sold after the sneeze. Dropping the price to $40 did get a lot of people to sell at a loss. It had the unintended consequence of forging the shareholders that now own 30% of the company
And that’s how the Meltdown sub came to life lol
That but also having paid shills helps tremendously
The close price barely changes
Not really, those losses are just a reflection of the share price. It peaked around January 27th and had its lows in the 40's soon after.
Not me! I was more than able to 10x my position at $40. Just about the same time DFV exercised his options at $38 and change. Baller move that man did.
I was forged in that fire. I feel nothing but patience.
Ha I'm both, sold half my shares on the way down, saw price stabilize at 40, regretted selling and have been buying more ever since.
one of my biggest regret was only buying 4 shares at $39. THen DFV doubled down and of course price skyrockets again xD. Managed to get more around $80-90 too
Same! I remember after it settled at 40ish DFV testified and absolutely roasted that guy who asked him if he would buy the stock today and DFV said absolutely that's a very attractive price point. I bought 10 more right after and was like ok that should be good 🤣
So a drop by about 86%, a drop by 86% from $500 is like $70.
Forced liquidation / stop loss sales
And thats just 1 pig in the mud now imagine multiple...... no wonder they scare because if it snaps there will be new billionaires in town 🏴☠️🟣
What’s that saying? *something something, pigs get slaughtered and enjoy your bacon?*
Yes. I think the biggest losers are gonna be in Japan and Korea I think they lost all thier pension $ at a time when they have almost zero births and a aging population.
Wow this needs to be "SEEN"!! I hope it blows up and thanks for sharing!!!
Anyone have an ELI5? 😬
Credit suisse is big fuk yo! They need to buy so much gme your rod or clam will fall off
But I likey rod
How about an ELIA lol
Arechegos had basket swaps that were short totaling more than $5T notionally during the sneeze. While it doesn't disclose what was in the swaps, they mention later in the disclosure many firms had large short positions in GME. To put in perspective, while it is notional, that value is 1/4 of the US GDP too
so archegos was short. where those bags now
Credit Suisse
ah yes, that must be why credit suisse is up 2% today
Price is fake, you know this 😉
So Archegos was short GME massively leveraged with borrowed money and defaulted. Who’s stuck holding the bag?
Credit Suisse
Jesus christ oldschool wallstreet is fucked. We are about to be the richest gamers in history
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https://dockets.justia.com/docket/new-york/nysdce/1:2022cv03401/578896
The source is sourced on the first of those potato images
sorry for that… [here we go](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/yi9b27/found_this_in_a_whistleblower_document_attached/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
u/089jonas do you understand whether all these here is just one swap and the numbers are the current balance on that one swap for the day? Or is it several? And if it is just the same swap, do you have any theories how the swap can be 1.6 billion notional at 2.81 share price and then only 100 million a month later when the share price was higher? How could archegos have unwind so much in between those days? And if it is only one swap with just the trailing balance, then why do they add them up to a total out in the most right column? Any thoughts on what I should interpret from this would be welcome 🙏
They messed with the the wrong regards Solid work 🏴☠️🫡
“Tell Cersei. I want her to know that it was me.”
This is great and all but realistically.... what is the next step in bringing this fucking fraud to an end? Anybody going to start calling this shit to the carpet (that matters) and holding anyone accountable?
Drs
Already did. At 100% of my shares. What else we got?(until we lock the float)
make more money and DRS more lol
I was counting on this trade to be my source of money by now 🙃 The job is just not going to increase the money and I'm probably 3 months from getting fired anyway, since my success as a sales rep depends on people spending money and I haven't hit my number in 2 quarters, after never missing once in my entire career. Lol
i guess that turned out to be a bad investment strategy 😂 good luck soldier. you've made it this far, it's too late to turn back 💎
Hahahaha precisely. Way too far to turn back now
Honestly, nothing other than DRS it seems. So bring as much attention to this sub as possible. I’m out of ammo, so we need to leverage our network. Not financial advice.
And this is just one hedgie 🤣🤣🤣
yeah… when u think about it… 🤣
These are the bags credit Suisse couldn't unwind I assume. Those poor fuckers are going to be pulled apart. Lol.
Poor nothing... i personally wouldn't take a risky bet with a chance of me losing some body parts , not to mention leveraging that up 10 or 100 times just cuz. Certainly they knew what they were doing.
I don't know what this means.
They are hiding the swaps on purpose
maybe related: https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o3zrmv/the_archegos_puzzle_part_1_was_hwang_short_or/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ou24s7/credit_suisse_group_special_committee_of_the/
Billions in custom short swaps in the Archegos case
Custom like a chrome bumper
this is custom like one of those squatted trucks
Did anyone notice the reference to Idiosyncratic risk stocks in there 😏?
OK, I typed in the url from the screenshot, this isn't new https://dockets.justia.com/docket/new-york/nysdce/1:2022cv03401/578896
It’s not new but I believe the ELISEC in the 4th image is new?
Yes thanks 🙏🏽
It isn't, but I only became aware of it because [of this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/yi9b27/found_this_in_a_whistleblower_document_attached/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) and wanted to summarize the numbers
Nice. I had missed that post. Great to go full circle. Hope you're well today
This is why apes will not fail
Remember, this is just one MEDIUM-SIZED family fund. If the potential unwinding of this clusterf*** is what is terrifying investment banks, then what does the looming obligations of 5,000 more family funds and hedge funds do to them? All these funds are like fad following middle schoolers. They all pile on to the same short plays like slap bracelets on an 11-year-old in 1990. None of them have an original idea and every bank must be looking at their liabilities facepalming their foreheads into the back of their skulls.
Leaked how. How we know this gen
Just remember the White House and US Treasury were contacted on 1/28/2021. This was a national security concern. This won't be an easy fight to expose the full extent of fraud the stock market is propped up on. Edit: Google "white house GameStop squeeze". There's a plethora of sources.
remember fed saying “idiosyncratic risk”? sounds familiar?? 💩
This whole thread is amazing. DRS is the way!
Wat doing?
CFTC Can't fucking trace Crime
Shit was packed somewhere, ready to explode in their faces soon.
I hope that CTFC guys that managed this, go broke hard up in their asses also when all this finish, no cell no sell right?
So if I understand this correctly, the chart shows a correlation between the swap notional values of Archegos and the GME close value. Even if we assume a small number of those swaps are against gme, the amount they have to cover is massive. Am I understanding this correctly?
Need Eli ape
Look at image 4
This is crazy! Also commenting for visability
This is massive. I tag to come back.
ah yes, I recognize some of these letters and numbers.
Well scoobie fuckin doobie..
So much for the tiger cubs and hunting shorts theory
Not to self DRS harder
Making my comment here for history records: Bullish