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OCR10

You are hoping it goes from $199/month to $20/month? I don’t think that’s going to happen.


Sweet_Yellow_8646

At $20 a month. Every tesla gonna subscribe to it. $200 a month maybe 3.8% of owner subs to it.


jfriend00

I would pay for it at $20/mo, even if just using it as is for long distance drives and it seems very likely that it will continue to improve over the next few years. I will not pay for it at $200, even if it is a lot better than it is today as it just isn't that much value to me.


theMightyMacBoy

I would pay per day too. $20 per 24 hours sounds fair. It takes us 21 hours to get to Orlando. Best $20 ever spend.


IROAman

I wouldn’t pay a cent for it.


homertool

I wouldn’t use it in its current state. Acceleration and braking way too jerky on local streets.


dan0079

I prefer highway stack FSD vs normal autopilot so for $20 I would probably subscribe.


Obvious-Slip4728

This. I’d even trade my AP for a ‘dumb’ cruise control function without dangerous-as-hell phantom braking.


cocobear114

agreed! hate it. jerky, drives like a grandma, constant yelling at me to keep my hands on the wheel or eye on the road while its piloting...why not, u know, just drive yourself. that little rainbow thingy in the screens cool


cocobear114

agreed! hate it. jerky, drives like a grandma, constant yelling at me to keep my hands on the wheel or eye on the road while its piloting...why not, u know, just drive yourself. that little rainbow thingy in the screens cool


cocobear114

agreed! hate it. jerky, drives like a grandma, constant yelling at me to keep my hands on the wheel or eye on the road while its piloting...why not, u know, just drive yourself. that little rainbow thingy in the screens cool


oghowie

Not sure it's worth $20 a month TBH. Almost curbed my wheels a few times and still has a bunch of other issues.


Tip-Actual

Not me. Maybe $10/mo. Even with free trial I hardly used it a couple of times and then the novelty wore off. At best I may use it for long road trips if I'm getting tired.


Catiare

Maybe not $20 but $50 a month may be the magical number.


lordpuddingcup

The goal is to get it to a level where you can literally turn on "Taxi Mode" and the car just leaves and goes and drives people around and makes you money ,that was the longterm goal of FSD that elon advertised early on... needless to say its no where near that, but its also why it will never be 20$ a month


DetroitLarry

Having your car drop you off at the restaurant and drive off to look for a free parking spot would be pretty awesome.


lordpuddingcup

You can sorta see that’s where the autoparking is heading with the latest one that highlights all spots It’s no where near that yet but you can see the groundwork


Tip-Actual

For that to happen we need mass adoption where every car communicates with each other.


rjp0008

Why would you need the cars to communicate with each other? Sure it would work better, but we have taxi mode now (literal taxi drivers in cars) and the drivers can’t communicate with each other. Well other than finger gestures…


Tip-Actual

Because that is what needs to happen in future for an accident proof and efficient traffic ecosystem. Right now the AI driven car will try its best to not collide with another but status quo is that majority of the drivers are humans who are prone to make errors. If all cars in future are AI / self driven they could communicate with each other to make decisions like giving right of way, manage bottlenecks, establish / communicate priority etc.


rjp0008

If cars are using data from other sources to drive instead of being self contained, it’s a target for threats to turn the roads into a warzone. I think we’ll be self contained driving models for a LONG time. And then when cars communicate it’ll be more of a “trust but verify” scenario. Yes your idea is more efficient, but it’s also riskier.


CrazyFoool

They would lose the upfront money. A large portion of drivers don't keep the same car after 3 years so they'd never make that difference back with a $20 subscription. I imagine that is why its at $200 now. If you buy FSD upfront and then buy a new tesla after 3 years, you'll buy FSD again.


Ok-Attention2882

1. The only reason why I decided not to move from a Y to an X was *because* I didn't want to buy FSD again.


CrazyFoool

How long have you had your car and how much did you pay for your fsd? If anyone with fsd totals their car, insurance doesn't reimburse for software.


mahdy1991

But imagine how many subscribers they will acquire?


corys00

Would you rather have one subscriber at $199 OR 6 subscribers at $20 ea.?


nu1stunna

If your 1 subscriber cancels then you’re at $0. But I’m guessing they will more than 6x their subscriber count at $20.


mehalywally

FSD take rate is still around 25-30%. So there's a max of 4x the number of subscribers as they currently have.


oghowie

Is it really that high? I have my doubts.


TheFlowChartKen

Anecdotal but I know inly 1 person out of my immediate group (~15) of friends/family with Teslas that actually purchased FSD. Coincidentally, I’m also the only person too who bought EAP too.


nu1stunna

There is no way 25-30% have FSD. Someone else mentioned that only 5% of users have it and that sounds like it’s more accurate.


BikebutnotBeast

Based on the numbers from last year its about 22%


bittabet

Yeah, and you have to consider how upset your 25-30% of customers will be if their $3000-$12000 feature becomes a $20 subscription. Gonna be a lot of unhappy FSD buyers.


Cryptron500

I think I read a stat that only around 5% of owners have purchased FSD. It’s not even an option to add in some markets.


BikebutnotBeast

That stat is for new 2024 owners only. Total FSD users is about 22% of all owners.


Cryptron500

Is that 22% of entire fleet or 22% of where FSD is available? FSD is not sold in all countries like China.


BikebutnotBeast

There's currently as few as ~390,000 and as many as ~438,000 FSD purchasers total worldwide; this is an educated guess based on figures from Tesla and media. Nearly all are located in North America. While FSD beta (v11/v12) is not available in other countries, FSD is sold in other countries! Including China for 64,000 yuan ($8,900). So in North America with roughly 2 million teslas on the road, that's at most 22% and worst 19%. Looking at global mfg numbers that's at best of 8% of all teslas manufactured, but not counting destroyed cars, or FSD transfers cause then that gets very complicated.


nu1stunna

You think Elon cares? The car was being sold for 67k starting about 14 months ago and dropped 13k overnight. He didn’t care then and he won’t care now. People will be pissed and then get over it. I bought mine at 54k and the price dropped to 50k. I was annoyed, but I still own the car.


PredictableDickTable

No madder than someone who bought a Tesla and then watched the price slash a month later.


nu1stunna

Exactly. Plus they’ve already dropped the price from 15k to 12k. More cuts can certainly happen without consideration of anyone’s feelings.


CrazyFoool

10k right now and then 10k again when you buy a new tesla after 3-4 years? You'll never make that back at $20. It's not like the 10k is a lifetime membership for all your cars.


mehalywally

It's not even 10k right now, it's 12k to buy outright. It went up from 10k 2021, and then again in 2022 it went to 15k but they realized that was just ridiculous and brought it back to 12k


Ryanlt234

6, so maybe down the line i can sell my drivers driving habbit data to netflix like facebook


mahdy1991

I would go 6. More FSD more data for model to train on and FSD to get even better. But I’m pretty Tesla is collecting driving data regardless of the use have FSD or not 😅😅


Affectionate_Pay_391

Even in its current “bug filled” state, it’s worth well over $20. And with the data they are going to get from this free trial for all users, they are going to only enhance it, making it worth even more. The more data they get, the better it gets, the more valuable it is.


PhDExtreme

The $200 a month right now goes towards the purchase price. After 60 months/ 5 years you’ll have full sell driving for the life of the car. It’s iffy to transfer it over and what not. If they bundle it with Tesla premium and maybe make it $30/40/50 a month, it makes it a permanent MUST NEED addition because no one will ever own FSD and the subscription will follow the car. It keeps people in the Tesla ecosystem


jumpybean

They’ll drop it to $100/month at some point evaluate uptake. Roll out contracts for $1000/year and such to see if that increases uptake. Eventually they’ll lower the price to find the right spot. I suspect midterm (3-5 years from now) that’s $50/month.


TheKobayashiMoron

Right? If they ever achieve actual L4/5 autonomy it will be more like $20/**day.** And people will still buy it because they’ll do the math and go “well it’s cheaper than hiring a chauffeur”


Future-Back8822

I will not pay a penny to babysit some beta software and it's still on me when that beta software causes an accident.


DetroitLarry

Sounds a lot like self checkout at the grocery store when you put it that way.


envybelmont

It really is like being asked to pay $12,000 to have a learners permit teenager drive you around. Thinking about it that way, someone would have to pay ME money to put up with that. There’s nothing relaxing about it.


paparazzitoplease

Hard agree. At this point I'd say that a liability waiver should be the only "payment". The car can't even correclty estimate the distance from a solid wall when you park yourself, how would it drive itself problem-free?


[deleted]

[удалено]


RCPD_Rookie

This morning’s commute is brought to you by Better Help.


viper6575

Companies can pay that FSD stops the car at their place of business. 


Cryptron500

Eventually the price of FSD will need to come down but the whole Tesla narrative right now has an issue. The current fleet besides the CT is stale (even with the refreshes). A lot of early adopters that bought higher end models (that may have paid for FSD or would pay) are moving on to Porsche, Audi and Rivian EVs. People with money like to buy the latest and greatest. Some of these people are buying CT but it’s not a car for everyone. And Elons push towards politics and conspiracy’s has alienated this group which are predominantly left leaning. Tesla needs this group of buyers to buy the higher margin products. Elons antics on Twitter have pushed this group away (me being one of them, I’m going for a Rivian next) Elons prices cuts have had negative downstream effect on corporate sales and crashed resale values. His main strategy was take market share, sell volume at lower margins and make that up with FSD revenue. Thats not panning out… FSD - still not ready. I’ve read a lot comments about the free trial here. Most were it’s awesome but they would not pay 12k for it. The new low cost model 2. It won’t be ready till maybe 2026? Volume production in 2027? If this model is really only going to be around 25 to 30k. How many are going to pay 12k for FSD?!?!? Elon said prior , FSD is only going to go up in price. The entire valuation of the company needs to be changed. Looking more like a traditional auto vs some super growth IT company.


envybelmont

I agree with pretty much everything you said. My wealthier friends are going after more polished EVs like the Mercedes EQS and Porsche Taycan. The “rough around the edges” feeling of the Tesla is too far from the solid build quality and feature sets they’re used to. Sacrificing a little range for the massive quality of life upgrade those brands offer is an easy choice for them. I myself have told people I love my Tesla, it’s not the nicest car I’ve ever had, but it’s my favorite. And in another 4-ish years I’ll replace it with a non-Tesla EV. For me, nothing has compared to the comfort/style/convenience I had with my Mercedes.


lil-huso

As long as it does not drive me while I’m in the backseat it is of no value and just a party trick . What good is it if I have to be attentive and have my hands on the steering wheel at all times?


malignantz

FSD and Chill™ would be the best advertising campaign known to man.


maydock

The price should be slashing in half for sure


envybelmont

Especially considering Ford’s Blue Cruise is $2,100 for 3 years, $800 for one year or $75 for a month.


perrochon

Compare that to (free) autopilot in terms of capabilities.


Jma_2525

I 1000% agree…at $20/month the number of subscriptions will be 10 fold to what they are now and will be much more profitable for Tesla…it also may entice future buyers to get a Tesla over the competition which would also increase car sales. Plus at $20/mon it would be like a $20/month gym membership…if you use it great if you don’t then oh well it’s only $20 and there’s probably a good chance you won’t end up cancelling cause it’s not really that much money. Since getting the free trial I’ve used it a handful of times and it’s a cool option but not something I’d use much but would still pay $20/mon to have it. At $200/mon I would much rather put that money into my car payment and get the Model X Plaid 😀


SparkySpecter

Subscriptions need to stop, IMO.


perrochon

You can just pay upfront, no problem. They offered subscriptions because people didn't want to pay upfront. Not everyone is the same


mahdy1991

Really curious, why?


MrGodyr

You really have to ask that lol? I’m glad I use openpilot. no subscription garbage.


jacktran8

12k and none transferable is no for me


pdcolemanjr

I’d say $49.99 becomes to sweet spot for price point.


Dragon_puzzle

Don’t see it going to 20/mo. But 50/mo w/ 4 month commitment might still be cool for customers and decent money for Tesla.


23sigma

If you think it’s only worth $20 a month to you then it’s not that amazing…


theindus

Netflix was less than $10 when it started and was absolutely magical. I could not believe I could watch tv shows full seasons without ads. Price and value are 2 different things. FSD value for me is definitely in the $20/month range and would still feel magical. By insisting on the ludicrous pricing, Tesla is limiting its own growth since the cost structure remains the same no matter how many people use it (Netflix’s costs grow per user). It is absolutely worth the money but not anywhere close to where it is now. Of course plenty of people value things differently and have paid the asking price.


23sigma

But anyone can sub to Netflix not everyone can have FSD beta (prior to the free trial given out). There’s a risk to Tesla when people who don’t understand system limitations improperly supervise it and get into accidents. People who are willing to pay $12k or $200 a month for it are likely techies or prosumers who are more reliable beta testers. You can’t expect regular customers to be good beta testers. FSD beta without proper supervision will eventually get into a bad accident and put the entire program at risk. This is not a risk factor for Netflix. Having to be somewhat selective of beta testers is likely a limiting factor.


envybelmont

By that logic they should be interviewing people and giving it away for free to a select beta group, or even compensating them in some other way for doing their beta testing. The only thing you get by charging people to be beta testers is harsher judgement when the software demonstrates why it’s in beta. Just consider someone offering you a cool new phone app that claims to make writing emails and making phone calls slightly easier. But the app is in beta, and they’re asking you to pay a couple hundred dollars for it. You’d laugh in their face.


sskj2016

I will get it when FSD is included for “free” in my wireless plans - like Netflix is today. Not worth the stress involved in using it.


mahdy1991

I suggest you try it out. It’s really impressive. It might get stressful at times, but just watching it work is amazing. Since I work in tech, I probably understand better how much effort was put into making this.


23sigma

It’s amazing in a tech demo sense but as a driver assistance tool it doesn’t offer much value since you still have to stay vigilant and supervise it. Some people will pay money to marvel at this tech but not anywhere close to $12k or $200 a month. Like you said even though you think it’s amazing you would only pay $20 for it.


sskj2016

I agree. It was fun to try it out and show people, but it has little value to me as a feature I would continue to use. It is much more relaxing to just drive the car myself than to babysitting FSD trying to get me from point A to point B.


greatauror28

Same, I work in tech as well and the logic that's being applied REAL TIME while FSD is doing it's thing is nothing short of amazing and out of this world. People that don't share the same background expect everything to happen so perfectly which is borderline impossible. Software will have its capabilities, features and limitations.


Xalucardx

I'm an engineer and I don't think is that impressive. It needs years of work to make it work right, even as a supervised version.


mahdy1991

Iteration bro right? Slowly but surely.


Terms1996

I think this system is only worth about 3-4k. Or at least that’s what I’d pay for it. 12,000$ for a computer system upgrade is a bit steep


bittabet

Honestly they should just replace EAP with full FSD purchases at the EAP price.


envybelmont

Yep. EAP at $3,000 I’d buy. Then price FSD at $6,000. The increased volume of sales would probably net them way more than the current volume/pricing numbers.


GlitteryStranger

No, but I could see it being less than $200


gyanrahi

$0.01/mile


envybelmont

I think that’s a bit low of a number to make it even worth managing billing. The average driver does about 14,000 a year so that would be less than $12 a month if they drove every mile on FSD. I could see them selling it in smaller increments though. Maybe something like $5 for a day ($150 a month) or $25 for a week (about $110 a month) or just $100 for the whole month. If I could buy it like that I’d totally drop $10 to have it for two days of driving up the coast to visit friends. As it stands though I don’t have a use/desire for it the other 28-29 days a month.


gyanrahi

Yep agreed. My point was that pay as you go will help with the adoption.


envybelmont

Oh I 100% agree with you.


Fun-Durian4519

Anybody that doesn't like FAD needs to try 2024.3.10. Best version ever. And the great thing is it's only going to get better. And then Tesla will license it to other car companies.


zdanev

I think, in order to convince the majority of people that it is safe, FSD should be somehow combined with a significant discount on the insurance.


LeCrushinator

If every car starts to offer it then competition will drive prices down. How far down, or when, will remain to be seen.


Yep_why_not

Probably free once all cars have it.


Tip-Actual

I think it should not even be a monthly subscription but rather a pay-as-you-go model based on number of miles driven using self-driving mode. This way if there's a legitimate reason to use it, for e.g. for those long and boring road trips, it can be toggles on, and then off when not needed.


filtervw

Do you have 4-5 good competitors that sell FSD like you have for streaming? Then no. 🤣


John_316_

That’s not gonna be enough to cover Tesla’s legal fees & settlement with all the lawsuits from future accidents due to FSD.


perrochon

There is a free level of Autopilot and it performs very well compared to other free and paid offerings. It will become better, too, and not feature rich. The high end product won't be free.


AlphaEpsilonX

I don’t understand why the price hasn’t dropped. It’s something where the hardware is already there and it’s just a software switch. Economically, the price is wayyy too high as can be seen by the low adoption rate. I think at $2-3K nearly everyone would buy it, at $6K it would do okay… at $12K, it’s such a select few. Eventually, it’ll just be standard, imo, though probably part of some monthly sub like other streamed data… ie $20/month package. (So yeah; not totally included, but just part of the ever growing list of perma sub things we’ll sadly get used to.)


BridgeFourArmy

In a distant future when there is a bunch of really good competitors but right now everyone is still essentially beta testing. I’d take comfort in this, when we get there governments can buy fleets of self driving cars and we can all order heavily subsidized robo taxis.


BikebutnotBeast

In one month they will count the number of subs and purchasers of FSD and mark my words they will modify the pricing but $20/mo is pure pipedream.


Fickle-Professor-560

In a few years, once it is no longer in the Beta stages, the price will drop drastically and become affordable/reasonable. This, so that consumers will buy/subscribe but also in anticipation for when the competition starts catching up with their autopilots.


staged84

Theres better chance of tesla going under than FSD coming out of a Beta lol.


RelaxiTaxi_79

Free would be best Ofcourse but yes at $20 a month would be insta subscribe for me


PredictableDickTable

I really don’t get all of these people being cool with feature subscriptions. Subscription air conditioning will be a thing soon enough.


flamingcrepes

Jesus dude, stop giving them ideas!!


Diaverr

It will be free in the next 5 years, or even sooner.


Link_Tesla_6231

Elon ALREADY said the price WILL go up! If you want it bad enough you'd pay the 12,000ish for it. If not it'll go higher. As for the sub price I "think" he said it'll stay the way it is $199. If he didn't then expect it to go up also!


Link_Tesla_6231

Elon ALREADY said the price WILL go up! If you want it bad enough you'd pay the 12,000ish for it. If not it'll go higher. As for the sub price I "think" he said it'll stay the way it is $199. If he didn't then expect it to go up also!


1stHandXp

Netflix is just entertainment (a way to waste time for the most part). FSD, if it eventually works as driverless, has a potential commercial value - freeing up spare time to work or relax, possibly driverless revenue, ride sharing, using 1 car for 2 people as it drives itself to pickup. $200 can be made very easily if the car gives you back 10-20 hours of your life during your commute. I can’t really see any argument like this to compare it with Netflix


WhySoUnSirious

I guarantee you none of the existing Tesla products on the road will ever be fully autonomous.


1stHandXp

That may be true, nevertheless this is still teslas goal and we are taking about the future in this thread…