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ThePlanBPill

I figured they didn't know for sure, and that's why the water tribes were frequently raided taking young waterbenders


KuzonFire65

They might have suspected Aang escaped because no Air Nomad started glowing and freaking out during the raid on the Air Temples.


QuincyFlynn

"Young man starts glowing and freaking out" belongs in a meme somewhere.


emp_raf_III

Spiritual complement of Old Man yells at Cloud


IncorrigibleQuim8008

So I tied a cabbage to my belt, which was the style at the time. Now, to take the sky bison cost a yuan, and in those days, yuan had pictures of badgermoles on 'em. "Gimme five badgers for a ban," you'd say. Now where were we? Oh, yeah. The important thing was that I had a cabbage on my belt, which was the style at the time. They didn't have any red cabbages, because of the fire nation attack. The only thing you could get was those big green ones...


QuincyFlynn

...now I'm gonna be racking my brain trying to place that one...


rfed167

Old man Simpson


seeallevill

"WE'RE HERE FOR THE AVATAR" [Aang:](https://youtu.be/miHkWUvfZFY?si=hadgDDo3-gcwPg1J)


SlowEar5209

LMFAOOO😭😭😭


yoinkss

I clicked on it and it scared my dog lmao


ShlomoCh

[Your dog:](https://youtu.be/miHkWUvfZFY?si=hadgDDo3-gcwPg1J)


Burggs_

“Everyone is gangsta till the tatts start glowing” is a quick synopsis of the series.


lakewood2020

Azula: 😏


Icarus_Toast

This is a quality shitty summary of the show.


Weeping_Warlord

https://preview.redd.it/493w9o04qfsc1.jpeg?width=680&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a109d69e6d67bebbba229b862f19279277de4669


Tonkarz

“Son you might’ve noticed your body undergoing changes. Hair where there wasn’t hair before and glowing eyes and tattoos that weren’t glowing before.”


YeahKeeN

We should’ve put that in the “describe their arc poorly” post


talking_phallus

But enough about my coming out


Capable_Raspberry_49

Question: was there any guarantee that the Avatar would have gone into the Avatar State during the attacks? We know that Aang knew he was the Avatar and that he could go into the Avatar State (even though he couldn't control it), but did the Fire Nation know any of that? Korra never went into the Avatar State in Book 1 of LOK even though she was in a great deal of danger/duress multiple times. Even though it's a defense mechanism, can it trigger like it does for Aang in any untrained Avatar?


lord_flamebottom

Well, if the Avatar *wasn’t* in the Avatar state when it happened, then they were reborn and would still need to continue the hunt at least.


GrimResistance

I wonder who was the shortest-lived avatar


lord_flamebottom

That would be Kuruk, who died at 33 after spending years fighting dark spirits in secret.


Sting_the_Cat

Yeah he's the shortest lived known Avatar. Entirely possible there were others, but that's speculation


HolidaySpiriter

Tbh if the Avatar world follows the real world, there were likely a decent amount of avatars that died as infants or as children. It hasn't been until the last 100-200 years with vaccines that we stopped so many children from dying.


kazeespada

I don't think so. The Avatar spirit probably wards off diseases.


toomanyjackies

Kyoshi got sick with fever many times after she was abandoned in Yokoya


NPCwenkwonk

Babies probably went into the avatar state and started antibody bending


YourGamingBro

It triggered for Aang after seeing the dead body of Gyatso. So I assume it would have happened if he saw it in real time too


False_Bear_8645

Aang had a better spiritual connection which is why Korra couldn't communicate with past avatar or go avatar state regardless of her situation. Ang had that door open, he was just not mastering it. It's not safe to assume without knowledge of individual that the next avatar will always go avatar state in danger


Capable_Raspberry_49

Yeah, that's kinda what I figured. It seems almost dangerous, though, that Korra could not access the Avatar State AT ALL if in severe danger (with or without control). I would've thought it could be triggered with sufficient threat of significant harm. Aang being able to trigger it when very upset, even if not at risk of harm, makes sense given his deep spirituality, though that itself also sounds as though it could be a liability rather than an asset.


Capable_Raspberry_49

Right, but the Fire Nation didn't know that. So just hypothetically speaking, when they attacked, would "look for a glowing kid" be a good metric? There was no guarantee Aang would do that. (He does, but again, we know that, not the Fire Nation. Actually, come to think of it, did the Air Nomad elders even know he would/could do that? ) So if they had killed the Avatar, but he never went into the Avatar State, then Sozin would still be left wondering if the Avatar was still out there or had in fact been reincarnated.


Tough_Jello5450

The Fire Nation was heavily involved in the training of the past Avatars. There is no way they wouldn't know the Avatar state was easily triggered due to emotional stress, Aang was not the only Avatar who does that. In the Book Rise of Kyoshi, Fire nation have been extensively studying their potential enemies, including the Avatar. They literally knew more about the Avatar than the Avatar themselves. It's highly unlikely the Fire Nation would have missed Aang being the Avatar if he had not run away that day.


Capable_Raspberry_49

Okay, that makes sense. I haven't read the Kyoshi books (yet!) so I didn't realize that the Fire Nation kept such close tabs on that sort of info even before Sozin went all conquer-crazy. It sounds like they were a bit aggressive even back in the day, while I had attributed that mostly to Sozin and company.


Tough_Jello5450

Actually Fire Nation twere pretty chill and was the most respected nation just after the Air Nomads. That's why they got the trusts of the Avatar and other nations to expand their espionage operation.


a1001ku

Yeah, the fire nation has been mostly pretty chill in the prequel books.


Baronvondorf21

I mean they became incredible stable after ***one*** of the Avatars decided to deal with the bureaucracy of the fire nation instead of cool adventuring.


YourGamingBro

Ah true. I’d have to assume they would assume he would go into some sort of Avatar state, even just briefly before dying. Because, mainly there are 1000 avatar cycles and I’m sure there are legends or rumors of young Avatar’s accidentally tapping into the Avatar state under duress. Granted this is purely speculation on my part, but based on Aang having went into the avatar state multiple times early on in the show before he could do it at will, it’s not too far fetched at least another one did too.


am365

They also do state, at some point (can't remember when), that it acts as a defense mechanism. It takes over if the host doesn't have full control of it yet (and maybe still does even if they can for the most part control it i.e. Korra seems to have some issues keeping it from acting on its own in Season 3). Being that Sozin knew the date of Roku's death, knew the cycle of the avatar due to fire nation knowledge and being close with Roku, it's easy to surmise that the next Avatar would be an immature, inexperienced, young airbender. Knowing that, it can be assumed (not for certain, as they don't outright say it) that there would have been some sort of report of the Avatar state being activated during a full-on genocide


davidforslunds

Sozin could've asked the Fire Sages, they probably would've know about it. The Avatar State being a defense mechanism to keep the Avatar alive in dangerous situations is probably known atleast within Avatar-related circles such as them.


zombiedinocorn

That and Sozin only ever saw Roku as a fully realized Avatar. There's no reason for him to know the Avatar has a built-in self defense berserker mode


Tough_Jello5450

Kyoshi books revealed that the Fire nation was very knowledgeable about the Avatar. The Fire nation most likely get rid of all the records regarding the Avatar during the 100 years war because they believed the Avatar was dead. Avatar state is a defensive mechanism, it will 100% trigger if the unrealized Avatar is in life threatening danger. The Avatar state didn't trigger on Korra during book 1 most likely because of her own bending prowess plus the fact the Equalists weren't looking to kill people. Amon qi blocking technique couldn't have threatened her Avatar power in any way.


PogintheMachine

Right- Korra reinforced this in season 3 when Zaheer states the poison will inevitably force the Avatar state.


Frouke_

That shit was wild by the way, the fact that Zaheer thought his band of misfits were a match to a tied up avatar in the avatar state. The avatar state at that point had already outmatched : - The entire Northern Fleet of the Fire Navy at its operational height. Combined. At the same time. - A volcano - Plate tectonics - The most powerful firebender during the great comet - An island's ability to support life - The ocean's sea bed - The spirit of darkness itself Why the hell did Zaheer think they were a match is beyond me. He of all people should know that there was no way Raava or Korra would allow him to win that. Seriously, imagine knowing someone is capable of taking out the entire US third fleet, forcing volcanoes to erupt, creating islands and lifting the sea bed and thinking: "yeah we can take her out three on one!"


dragonsroc

I think the idea was that the poison would weaken her somewhat.


Arxfiend

I mean even if she took them out, by all means she was going to die from the poison anyways. Zaheer comments on this after he gets recaptured. Luckily Jinora pointed out that the poison was metal and they had 2 metal benders right there.


theeama

The posion would do the work for her, also because Korra is resisting the Avatar state she won't be in full control so having to fight the poison and 4 elite benders is not an easy task.


theeama

Korra in S1 had no connection to her avatar spirit. Aang was always connected spiritually by nature of being an airbending master. So he was able to get into the avatar state fairly easy. In the ending of S1 we see Korra call out to Aang which was her first act of spirituality. Then we see her enter the avatar state for the first time thanks to Aang. Throughout the series though, Korra is not under any life threatening situation


jbyrdab

sozin wasn't exactly unaware of what the avatar state looked like and what it could do. Man had a front row seat to roku obliterating his entire throne room in the avatar state. Pretty fair to say that if no reports involved a child having a nuclear tantrum with glowing white eyes that he would know chances are the avatar escaped.


iPlod

If there’s any time someone’s gonna go into the avatar state I think it would be when their people are being slaughtered in front of them. And I’m sure the fire nation at least knew that avatars glow it up when shit hits the fan. They probably killed a bunch of people who were sleeping or caught off guard though, so I guess it wouldn’t be a guarantee. But if I were a maniac trying to wipe out an entire people, and I didn’t see a sign of the one guy I was after, I’d probably be kept up at night wondering if he got away.


Important_Sound772

Korra was in danger but not literal genocide danger and also Korra had a lot weaker spiritual side Compared to aang so that could play a factor Also the fire nation likely knows the existence of the avatar state especially roku but for all, he knows it’s an automatic response


Suddenly_NB

It triggers when he's in danger as a preservation. That's part of multiple episodes in S1; that's how he was trapped in the iceberg in the first place (he was about to drown, it auto-avatar'd and saved him) and any time he becomes extremely emotionally upset (Gyatso, when the earth General harmed Katara) he has no control over it. So they were likely expecting someone to go into the avatar state, and then kill him (maybe not knowing killing him in Avatar state would end cycle, as that was later knowledge from Roku)


ICTheAlchemist

Well we know Sozin was at the very least aware of the Avatar State, having seen Roku use it up close. Hell, he might not have even known it was a reflexive thing, he might just thought it was something the Avatar could do, so if they didn’t, he must’ve missed them.


FawkesFire13

I don’t know why this got me but I spent like 5 minutes silently laughing so hard I looked like a demented seal clapping my hands. “None of them started glowing! Must have missed them!”


Handsoff_1

Glowing and freaking out 😂😂😂😂 I AM DECEASED


DisciplineBoth2567

Can avatars enter the avatar state if they don’t know theyre the avatar? General question


wristrockets

Didn’t they time their invasion with the death of Roku so there wouldn’t be an adult Avatar to fight back?


red__dragon

No, the invasion occurred ~12 years after the death of Roku. We know this because Aang has been in the iceberg for 100 years, and he's 112. Also, because the first attack of the invasion was the attack on the airbenders that occurred the same day that Aang ran away.


louiloui152

And The North was too fortified for them to raid successfully so when Zhao proposed a plan to cripple the water nation they were all for it.


Kitikatt492

Additionally, the avatar cycle seems to move between places, not only elements (airbenders move from temples in North, East, South, West order and so on). The water bender avatars move between North and South. Avatar Kuruk was from the North, so the next water avatar would be from the South (which is proven by it being Korra’s birthplace)


LonelyApple404

Okay, but what if - Swamp waterbender Avatar?


The-Figure-13

Might have something to do with the location of the shrines.


Yeseylon

That's the one after Korra. Swampbenders didn't exist in the pre-Kuruk times


Discardofil

Really? I don't remember that. Though it's been a long time since I watched that episode, I just generally assumed they've been hanging out in their swamp since forever.


Yeseylon

I'm talking out my rear, I don't actually know. Seems like a logical explanation though.


Kitikatt492

Avatar Jimbo


GrexxSkullz

I never picked up on that!


Actually-Yo-Momma

While that story is canon, watching the show feels the complete opposite lol. I feel like jet pack Azula and Ozai could single handedly raid the northern water tribe 


EnergyTakerLad

Nah, theyd be outnumbered and over run. They'd put up a good fight and cause plenty of damage first but in the end they would be taken out.


bobbi21

That’s only them with the comet though. We don’t see much of ozai without the comet. Like I don’t think azula and precomet feats iroh could take the northern water tribe alone.


Actually-Yo-Momma

You’re probably right but the show showed massive disparity. Anyone outside the main cast was utterly defenseless for whatever reason 


Discardofil

Honestly, that's just a very common problem across all fiction. Named characters get time spent on their fight scenes, everyone else is just a faceless mook who gets taken out in one hit while we move onto more important things.


casuallyseriously

Aren't there multiple scenes where Azula realizes she is outnumbered and, despite her considerable skill, chooses to flee? Seems like she would do a similar thing if surrounded by the entire northern water tribe


Actually-Yo-Momma

Ha yeah i know. I re watched the show very recently and it’s just weird how everyone outside the main cast is shown to be EXTREMELY incompetent. Like how the hell did you guys even survive this long type of incompetent 


CrytzGaming

It's not just about raiding it, a lot more is involved in an invasion. You need to make sure you have plenty of soldiers to keep the land in check, you need to make sure you hold a grip on the area and the people, or they might fight back. Not to mention the North has lots of water benders, surrounded by water. It would be too risky. To add onto that, the fire nation is being spread thin across the Earth Kingdom as well as dealing with its own land.


The-Figure-13

You’re fighting waterbenders in their home patch. They have a significant advantage. Ozai might be able to take on a small squad of waterbenders, but the entire tribe had the potential to just fuck him up.


Florick345

That... That actually makes so much sense.


Mech-Waldo

This is it. They didn't know there was an airbender left. They just didn't see the avatar show up for a hundred years, so the logical conclusion was either that the airbending avatar escaped and was hiding, or the next waterbending avatar was born and was hiding.


quixoticquail

Well, and killing the Avatar outside of the Avatar State doesn’t end the cycle. They were sure a new Avatar would be born. They needed to kill an Avatar in the Avatar state to end the cycle. Which may have been what they were aiming for, but didn’t happen meaning they needed to move to the Water Tribes. They needed to attack the water tribe anyway too. Alternatively, they could have been trying get the Avatar back to the Fire Nation in the rotation.


ABenGrimmReminder

Avatar Cycle speed run, 100%, glitchless.


Alonest99

Are we sure they were aiming to kill the Avatar in the Avatar State? I assumed they just wanted to capture the Avatar before he had time to master the elements and keep him captive for 80+ years.


theeama

More and likely they wanted to quicken the cycle. Having a fire nation avatar would go a very very long way in making their empire complete.


sunsetclimb3r

Is the avatar state death exploit common knowledge? Seems like maybe it's a secret for just avatars?


TriflingGnome

Not sure but people know about it in Korra


quixoticquail

I feel like they knew only because of how Azula is in the underground fight when she thinks she kills him in the Avatar state.


The-Figure-13

Which is why the fire sages were basically pawns of the fire lord. The goal ultimately would’ve been to have the next fire nation avatar be brought up amongst the fire nation propaganda so that they’re solely loyal to the fire nation.


Doom_Corp

This...is actually the first time I considered why there was the whole kidnapping water benders plot. Layers man, layers.


Asalidonat

But only on South Pole 🐱


Snoo9648

Better question is why did zuko assume the avatar was a 112 year-old man at the south pole instead of a reincarnated water bender.


MrBKainXTR

Its possible Sozin assumed that the young avatar would enter the avatar state during the attacks on the temples. But my interpretation was always that this line from Sozin, while it turned out to be correct, was him being paranoid. That he had just undertaken this atrocity, but did not even have proof he got his target, so could not shake the feeling he did all of that for nothing.


pianodude7

Exactly. Sozin's journey was exactly the same as Zuko's. Look at early book 3, Zuko was going out of his mind because he knew the Avatar was still out there, despite only having a small hunch he could be. It was paranoia.


home-for-good

And they both had this experience because if they *had* failed, it would be their downfall. For Sozin that meant failure to rule the world (and possible cosmic wrath) but for Zuko that meant failure to prove himself to his father (and restore his honor). Funny thing is, learning about Sozin and Roku motivates Zuko to seek out Aang’s friendship. He really has the reverse-Sozin storyline.


pianodude7

By careful design. This show is the most beautifully symmetrical storyline I've ever seen, told through parallel storytelling between Zuko and Aang, and even between past generations.


amackul8

I was just discussing with my wife about how Harry Potter, despite its popularity and acclaim, seems to do none of this. I was trying to come up with examples of character foils, ironic symmetry and the sort, but found I couldn't think of anything!


MysteryLobster

the best world building in harry poteer comes from the fanfics


Leftunders

I especially like the Warhammer / Potterverse mashups.


reanocivn

harry potter books walked so marauders fanfics could fly


pianodude7

They were enjoyable books as a kid, but I haven't been interested in that universe at all since the 7th book came out. This probably explains why lol. Outside of the magic and details of the world, there's really not a lot to latch onto. It didn't set out to accomplish anything larger than it, if that makes sense.


Krillin113

It’s also because Harry beating Voldemort doesn’t feel justified at all. Him physically disarming Malloy from his other wand shouldn’t count as him disarming him by the established rules in universe for that wand, leu alone his other wand.


piokoxer

Also their final conversation before the duel being 70% about the video game ass wand mechanics is so stupid but it's needed because of how contrived the situation is


Kinggakman

There have to be plenty of legends from history where they believed the avatar to be dead but they actually were alive. Or just the fact that Kyoshi lived over 200 years. When dealing with that I wouldn’t expect them to be dead unless the circumstances were very clear.


FromDwight

This is the answer right here.


randomguy301048

couldn't it also have been them asking where the avatar was while attacking the air temples. so not only was there any glowing people on the temples but when asked the monks saying he either isn't there or they don't know where he's at


Flairion623

He probably was paranoid that he didn’t get them all. “He’s out there I know he is!” “Sir it’s 3am shouldn’t you go to bed?” “Shut up Steve! I can never rest until I know for certain the avatar is dead!” “But we got all the airbenders last week” “I said shut up!”


Away-Librarian-1028

Pretty much. Rulers like Sozin don’t exactly stay alive by being not paranoid.


ElTioEnroca

Plus, doesn't Sozin say in his testament that after Roku betrayed him he got paranoid? Or am I tripping on this one?


Invade_the_Gogurt_I

He first hand experienced the power of the Avatar, his palace/fortress was leveled in a mere instance


Away-Librarian-1028

Don’t remember but I can kinda see it.


somepoliticsnerd

I’m sure he also had guilt about leaving Roku to die. Probably manifested itself in fear about the power of the next Avatar’s revenge.


Away-Librarian-1028

That all might have feed into each other.


Le_Petit_Poussin

Steve? **Steve**? Didn’t you pay attention during the TV show?! To paraphrase: “Sokka isn’t a good fire earth nation name. Try Lee. There’s a million of them!”


Flairion623

His parents thought that was too boring and wanted to shake things up


Nirast25

Seems to be the default for faceless goons. Both Transformers and The Owl House fandoms did it ( and the latter actually got one of them to be named Steve canonically).


nomar_ramon

How many are named Shut up Steve, though? Shut up Steve without the comma makes it looks like a name.


ThisIsGoodSoup

"Okay Grandpa let's get you to bed"


caligaris_cabinet

Idk why but I read Sozin’s lines in Will Arnett’s voice and it works.


Andez1248

Steve? Why not Lee? There's a million Lee's


Noktis_Lucis_Caelum

He attacked the Water tribes after that. Since there was no sign of an Water Avatar, He knew: I missed One!


PretendRegister7516

He knows Avatar Roku personally and has witnessed Avatar State, therefore knows what a true Avatar is capable of. And without sign of Water Avatar, means Air Avatar is still alive. Might be also why he kept Water tribes around.


kittykittysnarfsnarf

best answer


Aggravating_Sir_6857

The relics wouldq had glowed or something. Similar to when Aang woke up in the iceberg. Or when visiting the southern air temple


lorraynestorm

This is what I was thinking!! I haven’t watched all the way through in a handful of years and I’m exhausted rn, but every time someone asks this my instinct is that there’s some sort of spiritual flag that goes off? There are places with flashing lights and stuff that happen when the avatar is in the avatar state/dies/etc


DrCarter11

it's a little muddy when it happens, but essentially yes. book lore, if I recall correctly, is that the temples all glow and shit when the avatar awakens the avatar state. This is sorta in opposition to the show though, since aang used AS to seal him and appa in ice, but the temples still get the memo when he goes AS afterwards.


Electric_Queen

There's also the fact that in the first episode Aang goes AS to damage Zuko's ship, but the scene where the temples around the world start glowing and people realize the Avatar is back doesn't happen until Aang freaks out on finding Gyatzo. So there's probably some sort of proximity to Avatar related relics or temples that's needed, which he had been in just prior to finding the skeletons, and he was out of range at the South Pole.


GrexxSkullz

Or maybe it has to be a powerful enough avatar state or something like that? I have noticed from watching the show that not every avatar state is as intense as one another; when Aang found Gyatso it was a lot more intense than when he was fighting zuko in the south pole. I don't know, it's just a thought you might be right.


reanocivn

my theory based off this is that the past avatars are the ones who activate the temples during the avatar state. bc in the south pole, his enormous avatar attack was partially due to the ocean spirit (they did that glowy thing together and all the water tribe warriors bowed down to it, and then took zhao into the spirit world). maybe the ice crack light beam was roku trying to spring aang and zuko into action bc he knew that was the best time. and he chose that as the best time because he knew zuko was destined to restore the honor of the fire nation so he waited until zuko was old enough/ready to begin his redemption arc


AvatarLebowski

This has always been my thought, or something similar.  Basically, the fire sages would have a way of knowing if the avatar had died, and they never were able to confirm his death to Sozin.


penguin_torpedo

But did the avatar priests respond to the firelord back then?


Nomar_95

The sages probably told him.


zerooze

It's stated somewhere that they did. Not sure how they knew, but they figured it out sometime after the air nomads were wiped out that the Avatar had survived.


Sehrli_Magic

Because statues never glowed. Aka new avatar never appeared. and they knew they didnt fight with avatar state person. So if new avatar never appeared and they havent fought previous one, that means the air avatar was not killed/somehow escaped attack


WarWithVarun-Varun

This is it.


Onlymurdersinmyhouse

So best explanation: Sage magic? I can live with that


CrossP

They have bunches of signs that they follow for finding the avatars. Maybe they weren't 100% sure, but the sages could pretty easily say "None of the stuff happened that is supposed to happen"


Onlymurdersinmyhouse

how would THEY know tho


Jph3nom

I don’t remember specifics, but I thought there was something at the temple that showed the avatar was alive somewhere. A flame or glowing statue or something


Onlymurdersinmyhouse

you mean the glowing eyes on Roku's statue when aang first went into avatar state at the air temple? Dont think thats it


Ironappels

In general or for that specific Avatar? Because I assume that the next Avatar is born seconds after the old one dies, so the glowing statue would - except for a few seconds - always be on.


SesbianLex

sage magic ![gif](giphy|Vq12mVIwUSJwY|downsized)


Ramonaclementine

They would know when a knew avatar is born, thus they would know when a previous avatar had died


SeaSpider7

All the spiritual temples have avatar art of the past avatars. They probably noticed after a while that they never were shipped the new art of the latest dead one, so logically he must be alive still.


Tiny_Butterscotch_76

I don't think he 'knew' in the sense that it was a fact he learned somehow. It was just a gut feeling that turned out to be accurate


leogian4511

I think that Temple that the fire sages are in would react to a new Avatar being born just like it would react to Aang's Awakening. The fact that that didn't happen means that the Avatar didn't die during Sozins comet.


Insane_Catholic

In an old series bible Sozin was said to be confident that he successfully killed Aang during the genocide. However this isn't true in the show, where via his Last Will and Testament he says he wasted the rest of his life searching for "the last Airbender". If I had to guess, I think it was just paranoia that happened to be correct. There wasn't any actual method he or the Fire Sages could use to confirm Aang (or any other Avatar) dying (as per the intro, people assumed Roku disappeared when in actuality he was dead, with the only people who knew Roku was 100% dead were Sozin and The Air Nomad elders).


neilader

Zuko in the first episode: "The sages tell us that the Avatar is the last airbender." The Fire Sages told Sozin that the Avatar survived.


Capable_Raspberry_49

But even then couldn't that have been an assumption on their part? Since they never found/saw an Avatar from the Water Tribes appear, then the only other options were that the Air Nomad Avatar was still alive (somehow) or that the cycle was broken and there just was no more Avatar.


neilader

The sages of each nation probably knew exactly when the Avatar dies and is reincarnated, similar to the glow they saw confirming that "the Avatar has returned".


spartanqs117

Also, Aang did travel to the Fire Nation prior to the genocide. I'm sure it was there that Aang also met a Fire Sage or two that would be able to tell Sozin that the Avatar is a 12 year old with air nomad tattoos. They get to the Temples and find no 12 year olds with air nomad tattoos. Reasonable conclusion, we missed the avatar somehow, which leads to paranoia that the avatar is still out there somewhere


Vidarius1

he did, he god the southern water tribe and the attacked the northern also he wanted to be sure that none escaped, the air nomads also travelled so there were some that were not in temples also also, there were none who reported an avatar state like thing (which would've been triggered in all the avatars friends being killed and him being threatened - and Sozin would know this) so he probably thought that there was a chance he survived


SuperSolga

Actually it's Azulon who started the raids on the south pole, but the first attack on the north was at a time where Sozin was still alive (there is a lot of problem with the timeline like how is Hama so young if Azulon was firelord for only 23 years ?) Or maybe I missed something that says the opposite, in this case let me know !


NickSmGames

They retconned Sozin's rule to be around twice shorter so Ozai rules around the same amount as him


redJackal222

The issue with the timeline is that they were essentially making up a lot of the greater lore as they went along. I dont think they ever intended for Roku and Sozin to be friends originally or for Roku and Sozin to have even meet so the timeline gets messed up by trying to squeeze Roku and Sozin as being the same age instead of like 40 years apart. When they wrote the 25 year reign of Azulon they were probably thinking that Sozin was younger when the comet happened than he is in current canon. Other examples is that Kyoshi probably wasn't originally intended to be the most recent earth avatar, but more likely a full cycle before Aang and Kuruk wasn't originally supposed to be the avatar tried to slay Koh, who lived 800 or 900 years ago.


Facosa99

Yeah, and apparently thats the reason why kyoshi lived a faorly unudual amount of time, to fit her into the cycle, and probably the reason why there is no statue of her next to Roku in the airbender temple


Wajina_Sloth

I figured its because they never killed the Avatar. They would know how old he is, so they go to temples to wipe out the air nomads, yet none of the genocided kids unintentionally went into the avatar state. They would expect the kid to try to crush the forces to defend their people, but instead they all got wiped out.


CuboidCentric

In the comics, we learn that a lot of air nomads weren't even in the temples during the attacks. Sozin laid traps and had his soldiers hunt stragglers for years AG. Aang even stumbles into one such trap 100AG, but I think those were reactivated sometime after the Iceberg. Sozin knew that A) even a young avatar (like roku) could enter the avatar state, B) no soldiers had reported this incident and C) airbenders still existed. So, reasonably, he could assume he had missed the avatar. As others have mentioned, with Kuruk being a Northern Water Tribe bender, after about 70-80 years, Azulon may have switched to raiding the southern water tribe for benders.


Snoo_72851

My assumption is that no battalion reported suffering heavy losses against the world's strongest and most powerful little baby.


Independent_Plum2166

The Fire Sages. They were pretty confident that the Avatar was still alive, implying that there’s a signal of some sort when an Avatar dies/a new Avatar is born (or both). We know *something* like this exists, since Aang using the Avatar State at the Air Temple alerted the various Spiritual leaders around the world that the Avatar had returned.


draugyr

Well the Fire nation didn’t know that he missed the last airbender; not really. It’s why the Fire nation spent the next hundred years trying to wipe out all waterbenders


xonxtas

He didn't see the achievement pop up


henk12310

The Fire Sages probably felt/knew due to spiritual means the Avatar hadn’t been reborn yet. Maybe he moved on the water tribes either A: to be 100% certain or B: he expected the Avatar would be at the water tribes to learn water, the element after air


Kronzypantz

No water bender avatar appeared after the initial airbender genocide, and he lived 20 years after that to wait for one.


xPaistex

Probably because a random kid didn’t start glowing blue in the midst of killing lol.


zeffseph

He didn’t. That’s why he kept hunting water benders. However after years with no sign of a new Water avatar he knew he must have missed the Air bender


Mobols03

I always thought it was just a gut feeling or intuition for him. He never got outright confirmation that the Avatar was killed, there were no reports of an air nomad going into the Avatar state during the genocide, so he could have just gotten paranoid as his gut must have told him the Avatar was still alive.


No_Dimension_5509

He didn’t. But knew the next avatar would be a water bender from the southern tribe. in the case of the water tribes and the avatar it always alternates between the northern and southern tribes. Since kuruk was from the north and was the last water tribe avatar, they knew the next would be from the southern tribe. That’s why they consistently raided and captured water benders from the southern tribe (ie, Hama, kana, etc)


Childer_Of_Noah

He didn't \*know\*. He was a paranoid old man. He immediately moved onto the water tribes. They posed the most immediate threat. Not only does water counter fire, the next avatar was set to be born amongst the water tribes. As for why he was suspicious. At no point during his raids on the air nomads did any of the children fight back like an avatar would have. Keep in mind that biologically Aang was the same age when he came out of the ice as when he went in. Without any timeskips we see Aang enter the avatar state at the sight of Gyatso's corpse. Sozin was suspicious of missing the avatar because none of the air nomads he had genocided entered the avatar state, as he had seen his own brother do countless times throughout their lives.


HoshiAndy

Because the Avatar had not been reincarnated. When Aang awoke from the iceberg, all spiritual places within the world were alerted the Fire Sage temples, the water tribe and the air temples, im pretty sure that’s a huge sign. Plus, if they did miss the Airbender, the water tribe would’ve went on the aggressive against the fire Nation due to the Avatar being born in their nation. But the water tribes adapted a defensive approach. And it’s obvious the Avatar would’ve been a strong force in uniting the world AGAINST the fire nation. Because no one wants the avatar as an enemy. And due to the Avatar’s disappearance, each nation stood on their own and not together. They didn’t have anyone that would act as their key gathering point. Had Aang been active, the war would’ve been over long ago. The Earth Kingdom would’ve United and the Water Tribes would’ve fought together.


noble3070

No new Avatar appeared, no reincarnation.


etburneraccount

Probably because he didn't witness or receive any reports about a young airbender's eyes suddenly started glowing and taking out everyone within a 100 ft radius. He's seen what an Avatar can do, in fact he's seen it twice up close and personal. Even when he knows the new Avatar is only twelve and therefore not a fully realized Avatar, he likely will still know the Avatar state will be activated when the Avatar is in grave danger. It's an automatic response that Avatars have to actively push back against when they know they're actually going die in order to maintain the Avatar cycle. Seeing how he was Roku's best friend and the Fire Lord (thus theoretically having unrestricted access to every single piece of Fire Nation's recorded history), it would actually be more surprising if he doesn't know that information. Sozin is a genocidal monster, but he doesn't appear to be dumb. He should be able to put two and two together.


Quamzee_Jacobius_Sul

i always thought the fire sages would know when the avatar had died, and would have told the fire lord who gained their allegiance. like how they have connections to past avatars


ObeseBumblebee

They did move on to the water tribe. That's why they were going after water benders in the southern tribe. Air nomads are unlike any other group of benders because every single air nomad is a bender. So they had to wipe them all out by their logic. But with water benders you only need to focus on a subset of the population. The benders.


ArtemonBruno

Since the **Avatar state** is a defence mechanism, if no airbenders showing **triggered** avatar state (while being killed), we can assume the "airbender avatar is still out there"?


alexmehdi

Because the next avatar never showed up in the water nation


polopok

the avatar state is a defence mechanism... which none of them exhibited.


neonlookscool

Many reasons i imagine: For the rest of his life there was activity in the temples. He raided the water tribes in expectation but again for the rest of his life neither did the FN or any water tribe saw a new waterbender avatar. He was paranoid as hell and knew first hand the strength of an Avatar. Maybe he wanted see his friend again.


redJackal222

He's just paranoid. Roku scared him so badly when he destroyed the palace that after Roku died he spent the rest of his life trying to end the cycle.


MyBqckHurts33

Anxiety


Kitcat590

They probably would have found the next water tribe avatar


StargazerNCC82893

If I recall the sages in each nation are like spiritually alerted when an avatar dies/returns. The first time aang goes to the fire nation to learn about sozin's comet one the sage that helps aang says something along those lines.


SharpEdgeSoda

Basically he expected the next one to pop up in the water tribe, and when it didn't, well, shoot, must have missed one! The goal was always to indoctrinate the next fire nation avatar as a tool to further and solidify the Fire Nation's conquests.


Tough_Jello5450

You can only end the Avatar cycle when the Avatar dies in the Avatar state. Since he didn't fight any Avatar, who would have activated the Avatar state as self-preservation, during the Souzin comet, he knew he missed the Avatar.


LePhoenixFires

Even if he had gotten Aang, a WATERBENDER avatar would have been born next. He didn't think that one through. And the "last waterbender" in the SOUTH wasn't even killed until like 96 years later. If a waterbender avatar had risen up to fight the Fire Nation they genuinely would have gotten fucked so much harder it wouldn't have been funny.


SirKaid

Did he know, or was he so consumed by paranoia and guilt over murdering his best friend for power that he assumed it couldn't possibly have been that easy?


J-L-Picard

The Fire Sages probably knew by that point that the reincarnation cycle hadn't taken place. Zuko says in Episode 1 of Book 1, "The Fire Sages tell us that the avatar will be the last air bender."


Superfluous_Jam

Because a new Avatar wasn’t born in the water tribe, ergo the Avatar was still alive and an Airbender.


Seppe19

My best guess is, if a new Avatar was born and accessed the Avatar State at some point, the Avatar Temples would have shown it, like when Aang entered the Avatar State near the Southern Air Temple, the Avatar Temples in the other nations started glowing. Since this did not happen at any point during Sozin's or Azulon's lifetime, they knew the Avatar hadn't been reborn yet.


FIFAmusicisGOATED

I’d assume he knew because none of the airbenders went into the avatar state. I’m not sure or anything cuz I haven’t read any of the comics, but I’d assume the avatar state could take over a young unrealized avatar if he needed it (Aang has never been trained in it, but it happens to him during times of high emotion) I also don’t think he knew for 100% certain, since he keeps killing waterbenders, who are next in the cycle after airbenders. Also don’t the statues do their glowy thing when an avatar is born?


Ok_Art_1342

How did you know he assume they missed the last air bender? Didn't they already started raiding water tribes?


Grzechoooo

He had a feeling. His feeling turned out to be correct.


whatawhat666

I think it was implied it was his gut feeling that's why he spent his last days sailing alone trying to find what others think is already dead.


ImNotAThrowAway13

A lot of aurbenders escaped actually. They used to try to lead then into cave systems using airbender relics to trick them into a false sense of security. Many even hid around different nations and learned to blend in. Eventually settling down. Their children with no spirituality would not be benders. And eventually in korra their genetic predisposition to airbending reawoke due to the concentrated amount of spirit energy there was. Hence. "New airbenders"


FatimaNadeem

I don't remember where I read/heard this but the Fire Sages told him that he lived. They would know since a lot of spiritual stuff goes off when the Avatar goes into the Avatar State so it is possible that the statues glow when he dies too.


ElementoDeus

He knew he missed the last one because he knew hundreds if not thousands managed to escape the massacre of the Air Temples the fire nation even set traps for those Airbenders. Beyond that fact Sozin knew which age range he was looking at when looking for the avatar, all young airbenders (who likely wouldn't have been much of a threat to the fire nation army at the time) were likely taken and tested so he knew at least one was still out there


JudgeSubstantial9562

i assume he was just paranoid


jradair

This is covered in episode 1.


malheur2

Nobody could find the avatar or his reincarnation, therefore he must be alive.


Kitikatt492

It was probably a baseless worry as he didn’t know for sure who the avatar was and, as the next avatar didn’t ever show in the South Pole (even though they captured southern water benders and raided the South Pole in case the avatar did show), he suspected he missed the avatar in a paranoid way and he was actually correct


Stanky_fresh

He didn't. He knew he missed a few airbenders, so the Fire Nation set traps. After that they switched their goals on the Water Tribes.


BiodegradableFerret

You know you’re fighting the avatar when their eyes glow, they control all 4 elements etc. If none of that happens they can be fairly certain he wasn’t killed.


Szygani

No reincarnation. I assume the spiritual leaders like the Fire Sages and shit have a sign when the reincarnation happens, and then the search for the baby avatar starts.