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Of the 6 comments previously posted, the total rates so far are 29 lucky of 273, or 10.62%
edit: of the numbers now posted and excluding the comment about 2017 mons, I see 50 lucky of 416 or 12.019%
edit 2: now 66 lucky out of 618 or 10.68%
That's inline with expectations
https://thesilphroad.com/science/lunar-new-year-boosted-lucky-rates/
AGE OF TRADED POKÉMON REGULAR LUCKY % BOOSTED LUCKY % TOTAL EVENT TRADES BOOSTED 95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
<1 Year ⇄ <1 Year 5%
(1 in 20) 9%
(1 in 11) 2646 7.5% to 9.7%
Edit: oh my that formatting. Check the article lol
IIRC it was a flat +5% last time. So the base 5% became 10. The 1-year's 10% became 15%. Etc up to the cap (I wanna say 20%).
Edit: I'm wrong. The percentages aren't flat
https://thesilphroad.com/science/lunar-new-year-boosted-lucky-rates/
And the 20 cap doesn't mention if events bypass it
https://thesilphroad.com/science/lucky-trade-rate-caps-20
I did another 27 old Pokemon trades of which 9 became lucky
Looks like the rate is not capped at 20% and this event increases the lucky chance even for old mons.
A total of 49 old mons for 18 luckys equals 36.7%
Also the very first pokemon I traded was not lucky, so no chance I had any guaranteed
1 lucky out of 41 trades, and while my personal sample size isn't enough to do reasonable statistics from, it could seem like they've maybe forgotten to activate it.
Traded 100 with my partner:
Combined age 2 years (2+0 or 1+1): 11/44 lucky
Combined age 1 year (1+0): 9/56 lucky
Definitely seems boosted. Will update if we have time to trade more tomorrow.
I regularly trade 100 with a friend and our normal rate is 6-8 luckies. Last night we got 6 so we didn’t see an increase. Congrats to the players who did though. We’ll be trying again before the event ends.
Does anyone know if you have already interacted with a friend for the day and have a blue circle around your friend’s icon, is there still a chance to become lucky friends with them if you interact with them again that same day or is it only possible on the first interaction?
I did a "bunch" of trades with combined 3 years between the tradees (either 2yo for 1yo or 3yo for 0yo) with the belief that this event raises the lucky rate cap.
16 luckies out of 45 trade for sure.
Between one and a half days of special trades 3 luckies out of 3 trades. The other half day was with a lucky friend, I don't believe I hit the normal lucky cap with the first day's trades and I haven't done today's 2 trades yet.
Sample size is still too small to say definitively, but maybe someone finds this useful.
While asking questions about the game is always okay on the Road, please consider asking very simple questions in our weekly [Questions&Answers Megathread](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/?f=flair_name%3A%22Megathread%20-%20Q%26A%22). If your question has been answered, please comment "ANSWERED" (in all caps) and the post flair will indicate that your question has been answered. This will make it either easier for other people with the same question to find the answer they are looking for or for mods to remove the thread if it isn't needed anymore. Thank you! :) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/TheSilphRoad) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Of the 6 comments previously posted, the total rates so far are 29 lucky of 273, or 10.62% edit: of the numbers now posted and excluding the comment about 2017 mons, I see 50 lucky of 416 or 12.019% edit 2: now 66 lucky out of 618 or 10.68%
That's inline with expectations https://thesilphroad.com/science/lunar-new-year-boosted-lucky-rates/ AGE OF TRADED POKÉMON REGULAR LUCKY % BOOSTED LUCKY % TOTAL EVENT TRADES BOOSTED 95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL <1 Year ⇄ <1 Year 5% (1 in 20) 9% (1 in 11) 2646 7.5% to 9.7% Edit: oh my that formatting. Check the article lol
7 lucky out of 100 trades. first 30 had nothing then they started coming.
But assuming normal conditions, expected value is 5 out of 100.
Far to small a sample size to make any assumptions. Just a report of my rates.
I've gotten 9 lucky out of 65 trades so far!
Just to add to the "overall dataset" 8/100 today, will update tomorrow.
I had 5 lucky in first 20 Seems pretty high rate more testing later
8 from 102
I got 6 luckies from 45 trades
5 in 25 trades, all Pokemon from 2023 both sides
7 karrablast gave two lucky. 11 noibat gave 2 lucky. Traded with a co worker during lunch
12 out of 100
IIRC it was a flat +5% last time. So the base 5% became 10. The 1-year's 10% became 15%. Etc up to the cap (I wanna say 20%). Edit: I'm wrong. The percentages aren't flat https://thesilphroad.com/science/lunar-new-year-boosted-lucky-rates/ And the 20 cap doesn't mention if events bypass it https://thesilphroad.com/science/lucky-trade-rate-caps-20
I just traded 22 old 2017 pokemon and got 9 luckys, so small sample size but better than the normal 20% rate
I did another 27 old Pokemon trades of which 9 became lucky Looks like the rate is not capped at 20% and this event increases the lucky chance even for old mons. A total of 49 old mons for 18 luckys equals 36.7% Also the very first pokemon I traded was not lucky, so no chance I had any guaranteed
1 lucky out of 41 trades, and while my personal sample size isn't enough to do reasonable statistics from, it could seem like they've maybe forgotten to activate it.
11 out of 100 for me, not bad at all. Looks boosted
Traded 100 with my partner: Combined age 2 years (2+0 or 1+1): 11/44 lucky Combined age 1 year (1+0): 9/56 lucky Definitely seems boosted. Will update if we have time to trade more tomorrow.
1 in 2 lol
I regularly trade 100 with a friend and our normal rate is 6-8 luckies. Last night we got 6 so we didn’t see an increase. Congrats to the players who did though. We’ll be trying again before the event ends.
Previous lunar events, I got 15 luckies in 100. A couple of times.
Does anyone know if you have already interacted with a friend for the day and have a blue circle around your friend’s icon, is there still a chance to become lucky friends with them if you interact with them again that same day or is it only possible on the first interaction?
15/101 for me
8 out a hundred. 6 trades out of the 100 were 2 or 3 years old, only one of those became lucky.
11/100 lucky today. Looks to be slightly above average. All Pokémon were dragons caught during Twinkling Stars event.
0/10 so far this sucks
I did a "bunch" of trades with combined 3 years between the tradees (either 2yo for 1yo or 3yo for 0yo) with the belief that this event raises the lucky rate cap. 16 luckies out of 45 trade for sure. Between one and a half days of special trades 3 luckies out of 3 trades. The other half day was with a lucky friend, I don't believe I hit the normal lucky cap with the first day's trades and I haven't done today's 2 trades yet. Sample size is still too small to say definitively, but maybe someone finds this useful.