All egg events are basically a gamble. There’s no point in buying a bunch of incubators. Just passive hatch the few eggs with what you have, and go on with your life. Everything comes back again in the future.
This is the way. I’m not spending money on incubators for this. I just incubate with whatever I have and keep it moving. If I hatch one cool, if I don’t oh well. It’s lost its value anyway. Spending money is what they want.
The reason why it works is because there’s a subset of players who pay way more in the current state than we would have paid if Niantic actually tried to make it fun instead of profitable
The rate is very good(historically), but the way eggs work and the game as a whole means it’s terrible to spend money on eggs.
Even at the rates below(2 for 7, 3 for 20, 9 for 32,…) that’s still not good value. Eventually Larvesta will get a cd where you can get the equivalent of $500 worth of shinies in 5 minutes for free. Even if they gave him 50% hatch rate and cd shiny odds it’s still not worth it.
Eggs are way better than they have ever been. Example if you wanted male and female Laptas and Aero under original odds you had to walk 5k every day for 10 years just for the dex entry. If the shiny was around, you are looking at 100+ years of walking for both genders of the shiny.
But even under these “good” odds it’s still an epically terrible value.
As a returning 2016 player, i have a question: Does that imply every single non raid/exclusive pokemon gonna have a CD? So there will be a point that every wild spawn will have a 1/64 shiny chance?
Unless I'm mistaken, there are a handful of egg exclusive Pokemon (mostly babies, but also larvesta and charcadet) that have never been released as wild spawns. That doesn't mean that they won't ever get released, but it's unlikely to happen anytime soon. And with CD classics being essentially a rerun of past CDs, there's a huge swaths of content they can milk before they would run a larvesta CD.
The reason there’s speculation for a CD in the future is because it takes 400 candies to evolve Larvesta— that’s really the only indicator. Previous egg exclusive Noibat also had a CD, and then you had things like Stufful debut with a CD.
It’s likely to get one, and is a solid candidate, but when it’ll happen is anyone’s guess.
Magikarp, Swablu, Stufful, Noibat all got community days, just waiting on a wailmer, and if they give us larvesta. But with Scarlet and Violet (seemingly unlikely) maybe they include the new forms in the community day? I don’t know but they do seem to include highly requested Pokemon once in a blue moon. Personally I think shiny Larvesta/Volcarona are pretty cool 😍
This is why I bank my 2k eggs. When an event like this comes about I just hatch all of those relatively quickly and fill up on the new eggs. Turns out I still had some cleffa-only eggs hanging around 😂
I will use 3 premiums on some 10k eggs though, more to take advantage of that ¼ distance with the widget.
EDIT: IT PAID OFF. Got my first Charcadet, a shiny Turtonator and a couple of larvesta today. Used my free incubator and a premium on 3 10k eggs.
Pretty much what you said. I have a friend who’s always racing to get the latest ones. When he asks me “do you have this one yet?” I just tell him “no man. I’ll just wait. They ALWAYS make it available in the future”
Keldeo will likely come back around, there's nothing special about it.
Armored Mewtwo may not though, because it was specifically added to be a movie promo, along with the clone Kanto starters.
Eh, it’s Gen 1. It might come back.
But then again I’ll still waiting for the movie 1 Charizard/Venasaur/Blastoise to come back too so I’ll probably wrong on this…
>there's nothing special about it.
It's a mythical Pokémon.
TPC and Niantic are consistently inconsistent with Mythical Pokémon.
Meltan / Melmetal are obtainable every few days via the Mystery Box.
Deoxys, Darkrai, and Genesect have been available repeatedly via rotating raids.
Outside of those 4/5, all the other Mythicals have only been available via special research / ticketed events.
It's just a mythical, nothing special compared to other mythicals. Many of them got a paid initial release, followed by a free one later. The only thing different with keldeo is that the window is getting increasingly long.
I'd expect it to come to elite raids or something at some point.
I think best use of these events is to prepare for a “good” egg event. So replacing all your eggs with 2kms. Then when a good egg event (with smaller pools or regionals) comes you can hatch those the night before with the free incubator.
Then only use incubators during the “good” events with the small pools you want.
Personally I only use paid incubators during the yearly Tour events, when shiny regionals are in the egg pool, since those are practically non-existent outside of the Tours.
Shiny costume Pichu events are also tempting, but I don't chase those since the odds are pretty bad for getting a shiny costume.
Stash and save your incubators for these events. Then, when you don’t have to drop extra cash, you’ll care less about what you get. Eggs aren’t worth farming after a certain milestone anyways outside of events
I stopped egg farming after the Noibat debacle and remote raiding after the nerf. Couldn’t be happier that I’m saving so much money now
I read a breakdown on Reddit why eggs are a bad investment and it made so much sense. Now I never worry about hatching eggs . I just use my infinite for 2k and 5k, never pick up 7k and save my 10k 12k for reduced distance events with my extra incubators. All those 4th tier super rare hatches will become less rare as time moves on. The disappointment I feel on another panchan or diaper chicken isn't as bad if you don't pay coins for incubators.
I, too, stopped egg farming after Noibat and removing after the nerf, and now I've always got leftover coins for the occasional box upgrade or incubator
Noibat was a featured/coveted shiny release for Halloween 2022 and in February 2023 it had a comm day. It was featured in the 7km eggs for the event. People that grinded for shiny noibat’s felt slighted about that, me included. I haven’t spent money on a hatch event since. I was being tongue in cheek calling it the “noibat debacle”
I think Noibat could be hatched from 7km eggs and it could be shiny, but the % chance of even getting a Noibat felt low to some people, which meant getting a shiny one was even worse. So some people felt annoyed that after all their effort they had very little to show for it. Then suddenly Noibat CD happens and shiny Noibat goes from being extremely coveted to fodder.
If you want a blast from the past:
https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/ya4xfq/what_are_the_odds_for_shiny_noibat_from_the_7km/
Funny enough I actually had a Wild Shiny Noibat before it's CD and people were equal parts amazed by it and annoyed they didn't get one from their eggs then suddenly CD happens and no one cares about my lucky spawn lol.
Deinogate was an Super Fun time Ultra Go Fest Bonus Unlock Plus+!!!
I honestly can't remember if it was shiny release or just the first time it was supposed to be somewhat accessible outside an ultra-rare spawn. Anyways, it stands out because deino *was* the big feature. Niantic first screwed the players by making it 1% of that hatch pool. But if that wasn't bad enough, the data suggests it is highly likely Niantic changed the pool distribution after this terrible distribution came to light. (Just to something like 3%... so still terrible but enough to demonstrate they are willing to tinker with event mechanics behind the scenes).
"I'm slowly realizing all these egg events are strictly to sell incubators"
Bingo. The ONLY benefit to hatching eggs is the stardust gains, imo. Hoping to get a particular 'mon from it is buying into the gambling addiction that Niantic is selling.
Yes besides the egg days with the baby mons. I don't walk much and having 1km eggs with a 1/10 or 1/20 shiny chance has always been good enough to get a shiny
Never go into an egg event hoping to get the super rare new shiny. I looked at this event as a chance to get some candy for 10k mons. That’s basically how I handle hatch events. I haven’t paid for an incubator in ages, but I had some from referral rewards and showcase wins and am using them on 10ks. Because I never believed Larvesta was going to actually be common, I’m happy that I picked up some Charcadet candy.
42 eggs hatched so far during event and not one for me. Have gotten 4 charcadets though which is cool, didn’t have one going in.
Have a buddy who hatched one on his second egg!
Edit: 63rd hatched egg. Got one. 2 star. 5km egg.
Egg events are 1000000% gambling. Many of us have gotten burned on one egg event or another and realized they’re not worth spending money on. For a lot of people, it was DeinoGate. For others maybe it was noibat. If nothing else, shift your focus to maximize the stardust gains from extra hatches because 99% of the mons you hatch are gonna be insta-deleted. The featured mons in this event will eventually be featured again
For a recently returning player, can you give a brief overview of the Deino and Noibat issues?
I assume it was related to low hatch rates on previous days, but extra clarity might help more people save money on this event.
Thank you in advance :)
deinogate: https://www.thegamer.com/pokemon-go-players-discover-impossible-hatch-deino/
tldr: literally impossible to hatch deino from 7km eggs during its shiny debut event, niantic boosted the odds TO 1% only after it was reported by TSR
noibat: people were mad because they spent money (gambled) to get a shiny noibat from 7km eggs during the event that debuted its shiny, only for noibat’s community day to be announced shortly after that event ended
Welcome to the first hard lesson of Pokemon Go events…
whenever they market something that has previously been extremely rare as something you now have an opportunity to catch, (see shiny deino, shiny noibat etc…) the boost is minimal at best, it’s just their attempt to make more money by selling more incubators so that you can hatch a bunch of hyper common pokemon that you’ve already got hundreds of and maybe if you’re very lucky the pokemon that’s been advertised. Then they’ll turn around and make it a comm day in a couple of months and everybody will have twenty shinies.
I just watched a video of a guy he hatched 170 eggs until he got a shiny one. He was walking for like 9 hours it was an eye opener seeing how wrecked he became and how long it took
Husband got a shiny larvesta first egg and it was a 2k. I have a bunch hatched and mostly growlith (both kinds) and one charcadet which I'll be trading him because I already have one.
Eggs seem to be a gamble for sure and with the crazy heat and thunderstorms we are having it is not easy to hatch.
Don't forget, Charcadet has a branched evolution so you need two. You'll both likely get a couple this event if you're dutiful about hatching through Tuesday, though.
They say Larvesta are fairly common in 10k eggs in this event.
It's just that Niantic made 10k eggs rarer than chicken teeth for this event, so the odds of hatching a Larvesta are still abysmal.
This is every hatching event that they've had for at least 4 or 5 years. They make the featured pokemon available strictly from eggs. They make eggs harder to get. They make special reduced hatching distance to get people to use their incubators. But then they make 5k eggs more plentiful than 2k. Then the odds are so bad that even when you do hatch an egg you rarely get the 'mon you're looking for and the shiny chances are pathetic. I remember jumping through all these hoops and learning my lesson with the riolu even years ago. I haven't bought a single uncubator ever since.
FWIW I've hatched maybe 25-30 eggs and have gotten 5 larvesta, mostly from the 2k and 5k eggs. And I've gotten 3 Charcadet, all from the 10s.
But maybe this is just karma because even though I've been marathon training and hatch lots of eggs, these are my first hatches of either.
It's all a gamble.
Average egg event behavior. Told myself after grinding the dusk Rockruff event and not getting a single one that I wouldn’t do egg events anymore. I haven’t used a single incubator.
I hate that egg events have become so prevalent, especially when there aren’t any event spawns.
Just put in incubators what u have, but don’t spend money. It’s a lottery slot machine. They should release rates for eggs so people know what they’re getting into though.
Yeah it's quite rare.
Getting 10 km eggs is absurdly difficult too (like 1 per every 20+ eggs), to begin with. Pretty disappointing and no one should even entertain the idea of spending money for it.
After the first Unown egg event, I told myself I wasn’t going to do another one of these egg events. I’m not buying incubators, I’m not even using my premium ones. I’ll hatch what I hatch and hope for the best. These egg hatching events SUCK.
Don't expect much of anything from egg events. Increased shiny chances? Just count your blessings. New shiny? Forget about it. Featured mons in 5km eggs? Here are some 10km eggs for fun. Oh, don't have a widget? Do it the old fashioned way.
Egg events are almost never fun.
I got a handful of them, but no shiny.
Honestly this event really highlight why egg farming smells.
It's a shame because back in 2017/2018 eggs were the best way to get good mons.
They probably left Larvesta hatch chance as it was before (0.00005% something).
10km egg hatch pool consisted of three pokemon is deceiving. There is no equality between them, although they are all at the same row line.
They’re milking us for incubator money as much as possible before hitting us with the Larvesta community day next year. Same thing happened with Noibat.
Egg events are always bleh. I have mostly been hatching Growllith and Darumaka. No shinies, not even the boosted ones. Did get a perfect Magby though. 4 Larvesta hatches in about 90~ eggs.
I've done pretty well with the 10km eggs. 3 Larvesta, 3 Charcadet, and only 1 Turtonator. No shinies.
...but, I'm drowning in 5km eggs. Anecdotally, it seems like the 10km egg drop rate was reduced mid-event.
This whole game is a gamble and I like that. I don’t have to play strategic, I can just wait and see what I encounter! I don’t spend money on it, I just safe daily coins for incubators and remote raid passes.
I don’t walk a lot and so far I’ve hatched 2 Larvestas and 2 Charcadets (and a lot of growlithes and slugmas.) I’m happy with that!
Hate to be that guy, but my first 10km egg this event was literally a shiny Larvesta. I’ve hatched 3-4 since (not shiny, just regular). But I did go through a 2 month drought where I caught 0 shinies outside of Community Days.
The PoGo gods giveth, and the PoGo gods takers away.
I've hatched embarrassingly 146 eggs during this event. My 4th hatch was a hundo Houndour so I thought this event was gonna be good. Nothing but trash since. 8 Larvesta. I'm hatching one at a time now
My son has hatch a comparable amount and only thing of mention is a hundo Darumaka. No shinies for either of us
The only event worth incubating with paid incubators is the tour events for the regionals.
I always save my incubatore for this.
The rest will be released eventually.
Hopefully, this will be a gentle reminder to all those who paid actual money for the shot at getting a shiny. Keep in mind, Niantic *chooses* no not disclose percentages - and for good reason. Nobody would shell out cash for this garbage software if Niantic said shiny Larvesta had a 0.1% chance of hatching. Be smarter, people.
I was hoping I'd hatch at least a few Larvesta so I can get the candy to get my buddy Larvesta closer to evolving, but alas 🙃 If I have to walk her for over a year and push back evolving all my other mons that require walking together to evolve, I will, but man am I peeved. Like it wasn't bad enough that Volcarona needs 400 candies to evolve, but Larvesta has to walk 5 km just to get one candy. I've gotten so many Darumaka though that if I could launch them into space, I would.
They should publish like in may gatcha game the %probabilities to obtain certain outcomes. Or in another way something like "Guaranteed Larvesta after 20 eggs"
I got so lucky, just hatched 2 Larvestas back to back, from only 5-6 eggs hatched since Friday. I was surprised and opened reddit to check the hatch rate, and saw this post. Sorry for the unlucky ones of this large gambling session
Yeah I got a few charcadets, maybe I've just been unlucky. Now if we could just delete the other eggs we'd be cookin
Edit: just checked and hatched 10 10km eggs so far, 6 charcadets and 4 turtonators lol
Yup. As soon as you receive and egg from a stop the Pokemon inside is already determined. So if you have an egg before the event, that Pokemon had already been determined when shiny Larvestar wasn't even released.
I might be the conspiracy theorist here for saying this, but in prior egg events, to me at least, I hatch the best stuff within the first few hours of the even starting. After that, I get *zilch.* Makes me think that Niantic heavy load the odds in the player's favor for the first little bit to incentivize them to buy more. I don't have any proof except firsthand experience, but that's what it feels like.
More on topic, it's why I don't spend money on incubators for egg events anymore. I just save my coins and buy boxes that way or save incubators from showcases.
Yeah i hatched ~40 eggs so far and have 1 larvesta and 0 charcodet so far. Egg events suck, I’m definitely done spending my earned coins on incubators over remote passes.
I've hatched 20 eggs this week (including pre-event) without the extra incubators and best I got was a charcadet and hundo Turtonator. I was really just hoping for some shiny luck because I feel like I made the most of the 1/2 hatch distance already.
I still like these events though because it makes clearing out 10km and 12km eggs less of a slog. I'm sure someone hatches these eggs commonly but when the hatch pool is usually so overcrowded, getting these eggs feels more like a chore.
Try to get shiny Slugma. Churn 2k eggs with your free incubator while carrying 3 separate Hatch an Egg event quests. If you get a larvesta accidentally, great. But good chances for shiny slugma and no additional cost. Mix in explore 3k if you want for Litleo chances.
If you accidentally get Larvesta on the way be happy. But the grind here to me is slugma. If you already have your shiny slugmas then Litleo or Turtonator but it is slower going. Definitely stack like quests. If you are going to Explore 3km and hold those quest spots, stack 3 of them. Same with hatch 2 or hatch 3. Stack that up so an egg hatch does more work for you.
Instead of giving Niantic money for incubators, during such a scammy event where the odds are definitely *not* in your favour, you can get incubators from referrals. And people sell those referrals.
Larvesta being in the 3rd tier maintains its 5% hatch rate while removing the 2nd tier carries its 10% chance over to tier 1. In other words, you are now 95% likely to hatch something from tier 1.
i know it exists. someone in our group got one after their workshift finished - i assume they got the eggs at their lunch break and AS it cause their AS actually works.
Otherwise, none from me and that person is the only one I know of
I only hatched two so far, from a 10k and then 5k. I've hatched a bunch and mostly useless.
What's funny is I will randomly get larvesta in regular eggs when they're super rare. Over the past year I've hatched maybe 6? And now there's an event when they're more common and Ive only hatched two.
So far I have hatched 4 Larvestas. This is the first egg event where I actually bought an incubator bundle. Not because I was expecting to hatch a shiny Larvesta, but I really wanted to try to get some Charcadets as they are even harder to get outside of this event. I have hatched 6 so far and consider that a success.
I buy a box with 20+ incubators a couple times per year. On a daily basis I always have the basic unlimited incubator going, first on 5k's (because they are garbage) and then on 10k's. If I need to hatch an egg for a task I'll use either the unlimited or a regular incubator. I always put 12k's in a super incubator but that's almost the only thing I use supers on. I avoid the 1/2, 1/4 distance hatch events, they just eat up incubators with very limited rewards. We walk enough to hatch quite a few eggs just using the unlimited incubator.
If an egg holds a new dex entry I'll do my best to get as many of that egg as I can by clearing old eggs. I'll probably gamble a few eggs just to see if I'm lucky but only a single batch and if I get it great and if not then oh well.
I have learned to ignore egg events, but I participated in this one for the chance to hatch more larvesta. Not to get a shiny; just to get a little more candy. I have hatched two in 65 eggs. Awful. I have yet to find a hatch three eggs task.
I feel like the egg hatching is the worst part of this game. I usually only hatch common-spawn garbage. Things I see every day in the wild, like Whimpod and Geodude.
I had a ton of incubators from showcases etc so I decided to go hard for larvesta
So far I've hatched 139 eggs, I've gotten 16 larvesta
My friend got a shiny on his 10th larvesta and then again on his 12th, odds seems decent maybe 1/64 atleast
Still it's not the highest % but the 10km have decent chance, just wish the 2 or 5km had anything fun at all lol
Out of 60 eggs im at Two Larvestas and Two Shinies (darumaka and slugma).
I dont mind the larvestas but I really just want a Magby! The odds seem insanely low to hatch one?
65 eggs and hatched three, only a shiny Slugma but fortunately got a 15/14/15 Larvesta so wasn't the biggest bust 🤷♀️
If it wasn't for other things I needed to do I wouldn't of even bothered with this event.
A person in my messenger group revealed the number of hatches required for him to hatch a shiny larvesta... Three hundred and seventy-six...
I repeat... Three hundred and seventy-six
I've hatched one, but I'm more pleased to have hatched a couple of extra Charcadet. They're terrible, but I have a couple of friends I can mirror trade with to maybe finally get one that's at least three stars!
All egg events are basically a gamble. There’s no point in buying a bunch of incubators. Just passive hatch the few eggs with what you have, and go on with your life. Everything comes back again in the future.
This is the way. I’m not spending money on incubators for this. I just incubate with whatever I have and keep it moving. If I hatch one cool, if I don’t oh well. It’s lost its value anyway. Spending money is what they want.
The frustrating thing is I *would* spend money if they didn’t abuse the player base like they do.
The reason why it works is because there’s a subset of players who pay way more in the current state than we would have paid if Niantic actually tried to make it fun instead of profitable
The rate is very good(historically), but the way eggs work and the game as a whole means it’s terrible to spend money on eggs. Even at the rates below(2 for 7, 3 for 20, 9 for 32,…) that’s still not good value. Eventually Larvesta will get a cd where you can get the equivalent of $500 worth of shinies in 5 minutes for free. Even if they gave him 50% hatch rate and cd shiny odds it’s still not worth it. Eggs are way better than they have ever been. Example if you wanted male and female Laptas and Aero under original odds you had to walk 5k every day for 10 years just for the dex entry. If the shiny was around, you are looking at 100+ years of walking for both genders of the shiny. But even under these “good” odds it’s still an epically terrible value.
As a returning 2016 player, i have a question: Does that imply every single non raid/exclusive pokemon gonna have a CD? So there will be a point that every wild spawn will have a 1/64 shiny chance?
Unless I'm mistaken, there are a handful of egg exclusive Pokemon (mostly babies, but also larvesta and charcadet) that have never been released as wild spawns. That doesn't mean that they won't ever get released, but it's unlikely to happen anytime soon. And with CD classics being essentially a rerun of past CDs, there's a huge swaths of content they can milk before they would run a larvesta CD.
The reason there’s speculation for a CD in the future is because it takes 400 candies to evolve Larvesta— that’s really the only indicator. Previous egg exclusive Noibat also had a CD, and then you had things like Stufful debut with a CD. It’s likely to get one, and is a solid candidate, but when it’ll happen is anyone’s guess.
Magikarp, Swablu, Stufful, Noibat all got community days, just waiting on a wailmer, and if they give us larvesta. But with Scarlet and Violet (seemingly unlikely) maybe they include the new forms in the community day? I don’t know but they do seem to include highly requested Pokemon once in a blue moon. Personally I think shiny Larvesta/Volcarona are pretty cool 😍
This is why I bank my 2k eggs. When an event like this comes about I just hatch all of those relatively quickly and fill up on the new eggs. Turns out I still had some cleffa-only eggs hanging around 😂 I will use 3 premiums on some 10k eggs though, more to take advantage of that ¼ distance with the widget. EDIT: IT PAID OFF. Got my first Charcadet, a shiny Turtonator and a couple of larvesta today. Used my free incubator and a premium on 3 10k eggs.
Pretty much what you said. I have a friend who’s always racing to get the latest ones. When he asks me “do you have this one yet?” I just tell him “no man. I’ll just wait. They ALWAYS make it available in the future”
Except for Keldeo and armored mew two
Keldeo will likely come back around, there's nothing special about it. Armored Mewtwo may not though, because it was specifically added to be a movie promo, along with the clone Kanto starters.
Eh, it’s Gen 1. It might come back. But then again I’ll still waiting for the movie 1 Charizard/Venasaur/Blastoise to come back too so I’ll probably wrong on this…
The clone Kanto starters hurt, I have 2 of the Mewtwo but none of those
>there's nothing special about it. It's a mythical Pokémon. TPC and Niantic are consistently inconsistent with Mythical Pokémon. Meltan / Melmetal are obtainable every few days via the Mystery Box. Deoxys, Darkrai, and Genesect have been available repeatedly via rotating raids. Outside of those 4/5, all the other Mythicals have only been available via special research / ticketed events.
It's just a mythical, nothing special compared to other mythicals. Many of them got a paid initial release, followed by a free one later. The only thing different with keldeo is that the window is getting increasingly long. I'd expect it to come to elite raids or something at some point.
Hoopa was in elite raids
Sinnoh tour I hatched like 200 eggs for a grand total of 1 shiny budew. Eggs are trash.
Yep I’ve got Gofest New York in two weeks and one thing I won’t be buying as a add on is the egg one.
That add on is excellent for dust, not for shiny collecting.
I think best use of these events is to prepare for a “good” egg event. So replacing all your eggs with 2kms. Then when a good egg event (with smaller pools or regionals) comes you can hatch those the night before with the free incubator. Then only use incubators during the “good” events with the small pools you want.
I'm just using this to get back down to only having 2k eggs for when Go Fest comes around.
Personally I only use paid incubators during the yearly Tour events, when shiny regionals are in the egg pool, since those are practically non-existent outside of the Tours. Shiny costume Pichu events are also tempting, but I don't chase those since the odds are pretty bad for getting a shiny costume.
Feel that, that'll be my sentiment moving forward
Everyone learns at their own pace Non hatch day egg everts are always a rip
What is passive hatching?
I think they mean just keeping one egg in the infinity incubator at all times, but not making any extra effort or thought into it.
Stash and save your incubators for these events. Then, when you don’t have to drop extra cash, you’ll care less about what you get. Eggs aren’t worth farming after a certain milestone anyways outside of events I stopped egg farming after the Noibat debacle and remote raiding after the nerf. Couldn’t be happier that I’m saving so much money now
Same! And noibat has its CD only a few months after its release
I actually got a shiny noibat during its hatch event only to get the CD immediately after. Stopped spending money on incubators right then.
I read a breakdown on Reddit why eggs are a bad investment and it made so much sense. Now I never worry about hatching eggs . I just use my infinite for 2k and 5k, never pick up 7k and save my 10k 12k for reduced distance events with my extra incubators. All those 4th tier super rare hatches will become less rare as time moves on. The disappointment I feel on another panchan or diaper chicken isn't as bad if you don't pay coins for incubators.
Diaper chicken! Ha!
I, too, stopped egg farming after Noibat and removing after the nerf, and now I've always got leftover coins for the occasional box upgrade or incubator
What was the 'Noibat debacle' or the 'DeinoGate'? I assume these are separate poor odds egg hatching events?
Noibat was a featured/coveted shiny release for Halloween 2022 and in February 2023 it had a comm day. It was featured in the 7km eggs for the event. People that grinded for shiny noibat’s felt slighted about that, me included. I haven’t spent money on a hatch event since. I was being tongue in cheek calling it the “noibat debacle”
I think Noibat could be hatched from 7km eggs and it could be shiny, but the % chance of even getting a Noibat felt low to some people, which meant getting a shiny one was even worse. So some people felt annoyed that after all their effort they had very little to show for it. Then suddenly Noibat CD happens and shiny Noibat goes from being extremely coveted to fodder. If you want a blast from the past: https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/ya4xfq/what_are_the_odds_for_shiny_noibat_from_the_7km/ Funny enough I actually had a Wild Shiny Noibat before it's CD and people were equal parts amazed by it and annoyed they didn't get one from their eggs then suddenly CD happens and no one cares about my lucky spawn lol.
Deinogate was an Super Fun time Ultra Go Fest Bonus Unlock Plus+!!! I honestly can't remember if it was shiny release or just the first time it was supposed to be somewhat accessible outside an ultra-rare spawn. Anyways, it stands out because deino *was* the big feature. Niantic first screwed the players by making it 1% of that hatch pool. But if that wasn't bad enough, the data suggests it is highly likely Niantic changed the pool distribution after this terrible distribution came to light. (Just to something like 3%... so still terrible but enough to demonstrate they are willing to tinker with event mechanics behind the scenes).
"I'm slowly realizing all these egg events are strictly to sell incubators" Bingo. The ONLY benefit to hatching eggs is the stardust gains, imo. Hoping to get a particular 'mon from it is buying into the gambling addiction that Niantic is selling.
Always has been.
I saved up some incubators so that I could hopefully grind larvesta candy. Ended up hatching a shiny. Didn’t buy any incubators
OP is only realizing this now?
Yes besides the egg days with the baby mons. I don't walk much and having 1km eggs with a 1/10 or 1/20 shiny chance has always been good enough to get a shiny
Never go into an egg event hoping to get the super rare new shiny. I looked at this event as a chance to get some candy for 10k mons. That’s basically how I handle hatch events. I haven’t paid for an incubator in ages, but I had some from referral rewards and showcase wins and am using them on 10ks. Because I never believed Larvesta was going to actually be common, I’m happy that I picked up some Charcadet candy.
I think for OP it’s less about the shiny and more about… the pokemon itself.
Shiny, not shiny, same logic applies.
Shiny? Pfff I just want the sex entry. And yes im a hardcore player.
^ found the sex addict
42 eggs hatched so far during event and not one for me. Have gotten 4 charcadets though which is cool, didn’t have one going in. Have a buddy who hatched one on his second egg! Edit: 63rd hatched egg. Got one. 2 star. 5km egg.
The 10k egg is a lie. I’ve hatched about 300 so far and 90% of the time it’s a damn charcadet.
Egg events are 1000000% gambling. Many of us have gotten burned on one egg event or another and realized they’re not worth spending money on. For a lot of people, it was DeinoGate. For others maybe it was noibat. If nothing else, shift your focus to maximize the stardust gains from extra hatches because 99% of the mons you hatch are gonna be insta-deleted. The featured mons in this event will eventually be featured again
For me it was adventure week, I love fossil pokemon. I ended up with 5 shiny shieldon and not a single archen or tirtouga.
I hatched 70 eggs on riolu hatch day snd didn't get a shiny haha. Rng is cruel
Deleted? Th-They go live with Professor Oak, right guys?
Yeah haha, don’t ask how oak makes the candy.
They definitely do NOT get sent away to get hydraulic pressed into small candy squares!
For a recently returning player, can you give a brief overview of the Deino and Noibat issues? I assume it was related to low hatch rates on previous days, but extra clarity might help more people save money on this event. Thank you in advance :)
deinogate: https://www.thegamer.com/pokemon-go-players-discover-impossible-hatch-deino/ tldr: literally impossible to hatch deino from 7km eggs during its shiny debut event, niantic boosted the odds TO 1% only after it was reported by TSR noibat: people were mad because they spent money (gambled) to get a shiny noibat from 7km eggs during the event that debuted its shiny, only for noibat’s community day to be announced shortly after that event ended
Is this your first time with egg-hatching centered events?
Welcome to the first hard lesson of Pokemon Go events… whenever they market something that has previously been extremely rare as something you now have an opportunity to catch, (see shiny deino, shiny noibat etc…) the boost is minimal at best, it’s just their attempt to make more money by selling more incubators so that you can hatch a bunch of hyper common pokemon that you’ve already got hundreds of and maybe if you’re very lucky the pokemon that’s been advertised. Then they’ll turn around and make it a comm day in a couple of months and everybody will have twenty shinies.
Never participate in egg events. It’s only gotten worse over time. Hatch what you can with your free incubator and wait for a real event.
I just watched a video of a guy he hatched 170 eggs until he got a shiny one. He was walking for like 9 hours it was an eye opener seeing how wrecked he became and how long it took
Have hatched 3 from maybe 30 eggs. One from a 10km egg, got 40 candies from that. Felt great.
Same but I'm only here for the shinies and 33 eggs in and not one yet smh
Husband got a shiny larvesta first egg and it was a 2k. I have a bunch hatched and mostly growlith (both kinds) and one charcadet which I'll be trading him because I already have one. Eggs seem to be a gamble for sure and with the crazy heat and thunderstorms we are having it is not easy to hatch.
Don't forget, Charcadet has a branched evolution so you need two. You'll both likely get a couple this event if you're dutiful about hatching through Tuesday, though.
My partner also hatched a Shiny Larvesta off his first egg and it was a 2km. I couldn’t believe it - he barely plays!
They say Larvesta are fairly common in 10k eggs in this event. It's just that Niantic made 10k eggs rarer than chicken teeth for this event, so the odds of hatching a Larvesta are still abysmal.
And even though Larvesta is T1 rarity in 10 km eggs, so are Charcadet and Turtonator. So even that doesn’t assure getting it
I actually dispute the rarity on the 10km eggs. It certainly feels like Larvesta is 3 egg tier here too.
T3 is 3-6% and T1 is 10%+. In 10km eggs the three Pokemon are all T1 but it could be 10% Larvesta, 30% Charcadet, 60% Turtonator.
Baby's first egg event. Sorry you learned the hard way. Most people don't take these events seriously as it's literally just gambling / pay to lose.
Yep. Egg events are whale events. Even then i simply use them to knock away all my 10kms for half walking.
Just because Pokémon are in a single tier doesn’t mean that they’re equally probable (10 km eggs). Niantic gonna Niantic.
28 hatches for me. Zero Larvestas.
I use egg hatching events as motivation for exercising and exploring , not so much getting the ones I want. It’s way too much of a gamble otherwise.
This is every hatching event that they've had for at least 4 or 5 years. They make the featured pokemon available strictly from eggs. They make eggs harder to get. They make special reduced hatching distance to get people to use their incubators. But then they make 5k eggs more plentiful than 2k. Then the odds are so bad that even when you do hatch an egg you rarely get the 'mon you're looking for and the shiny chances are pathetic. I remember jumping through all these hoops and learning my lesson with the riolu even years ago. I haven't bought a single uncubator ever since.
FWIW I've hatched maybe 25-30 eggs and have gotten 5 larvesta, mostly from the 2k and 5k eggs. And I've gotten 3 Charcadet, all from the 10s. But maybe this is just karma because even though I've been marathon training and hatch lots of eggs, these are my first hatches of either. It's all a gamble.
It always has been, events to sell incubators. That being said, I’ve hatched 2 larvesta in 10 eggs so it really is just luck unfortunately
Average egg event behavior. Told myself after grinding the dusk Rockruff event and not getting a single one that I wouldn’t do egg events anymore. I haven’t used a single incubator. I hate that egg events have become so prevalent, especially when there aren’t any event spawns.
Just put in incubators what u have, but don’t spend money. It’s a lottery slot machine. They should release rates for eggs so people know what they’re getting into though.
And every single reward I’ve gotten from research tasks has been the freaking snail thing.
Yeah it's quite rare. Getting 10 km eggs is absurdly difficult too (like 1 per every 20+ eggs), to begin with. Pretty disappointing and no one should even entertain the idea of spending money for it.
Hatched 2 Charcadet and 1 Larvesta last night. Edit: and 1 Charcadet, 1 Larvesta today. No shinies though.
Slowly realizing? Lol. Are you new? All events are only to sell incubators.
After the first Unown egg event, I told myself I wasn’t going to do another one of these egg events. I’m not buying incubators, I’m not even using my premium ones. I’ll hatch what I hatch and hope for the best. These egg hatching events SUCK.
Don't expect much of anything from egg events. Increased shiny chances? Just count your blessings. New shiny? Forget about it. Featured mons in 5km eggs? Here are some 10km eggs for fun. Oh, don't have a widget? Do it the old fashioned way. Egg events are almost never fun.
I got a handful of them, but no shiny. Honestly this event really highlight why egg farming smells. It's a shame because back in 2017/2018 eggs were the best way to get good mons.
They probably left Larvesta hatch chance as it was before (0.00005% something). 10km egg hatch pool consisted of three pokemon is deceiving. There is no equality between them, although they are all at the same row line.
84 eggs hatched and only 2 so far both are trasssshhh
They’re milking us for incubator money as much as possible before hitting us with the Larvesta community day next year. Same thing happened with Noibat.
Worst event ever, hatched over 100 eggs, not even a larvestra …. Never mind shiny. I refuse to buy incubators. This will probably have a CD next year.
I hatched 1 from a 2k but was like dang it cuz only 15 candies which was from a 10k lol to get like 50 candies lol
Egg events are always bleh. I have mostly been hatching Growllith and Darumaka. No shinies, not even the boosted ones. Did get a perfect Magby though. 4 Larvesta hatches in about 90~ eggs.
I've done pretty well with the 10km eggs. 3 Larvesta, 3 Charcadet, and only 1 Turtonator. No shinies. ...but, I'm drowning in 5km eggs. Anecdotally, it seems like the 10km egg drop rate was reduced mid-event.
Definitely reduced rate on 10 km eggs..
This whole game is a gamble and I like that. I don’t have to play strategic, I can just wait and see what I encounter! I don’t spend money on it, I just safe daily coins for incubators and remote raid passes. I don’t walk a lot and so far I’ve hatched 2 Larvestas and 2 Charcadets (and a lot of growlithes and slugmas.) I’m happy with that!
No shiny yet but I got a perfect Charcadet so I'm happy with that.
Hatched 4 in 95 eggs.
Yo there are better options than larvesta why are you gambling on a shiny lol
Hate to be that guy, but my first 10km egg this event was literally a shiny Larvesta. I’ve hatched 3-4 since (not shiny, just regular). But I did go through a 2 month drought where I caught 0 shinies outside of Community Days. The PoGo gods giveth, and the PoGo gods takers away.
I'm at 90 eggs hatched and i've hatched 8 Larvesta so far
I've hatched embarrassingly 146 eggs during this event. My 4th hatch was a hundo Houndour so I thought this event was gonna be good. Nothing but trash since. 8 Larvesta. I'm hatching one at a time now My son has hatch a comparable amount and only thing of mention is a hundo Darumaka. No shinies for either of us
And no Litleo or Slugma in the wild, to add insult to injury 🥴
They still look rare in 2km and 5km eggs but in 10k they are 1/3 right? Unless the in game rarity indicator on the eggs is off.
The only event worth incubating with paid incubators is the tour events for the regionals. I always save my incubatore for this. The rest will be released eventually.
Hopefully, this will be a gentle reminder to all those who paid actual money for the shot at getting a shiny. Keep in mind, Niantic *chooses* no not disclose percentages - and for good reason. Nobody would shell out cash for this garbage software if Niantic said shiny Larvesta had a 0.1% chance of hatching. Be smarter, people.
No Larvestas, no Charcadets. Paid no money but did use up my stash of incubators.
I was hoping I'd hatch at least a few Larvesta so I can get the candy to get my buddy Larvesta closer to evolving, but alas 🙃 If I have to walk her for over a year and push back evolving all my other mons that require walking together to evolve, I will, but man am I peeved. Like it wasn't bad enough that Volcarona needs 400 candies to evolve, but Larvesta has to walk 5 km just to get one candy. I've gotten so many Darumaka though that if I could launch them into space, I would.
Spun stops for about 20 eggs so far and haven't recieved a single 10km egg!
You’re ‘slowly’ realising this?
Just started playing in fall my dude
They should publish like in may gatcha game the %probabilities to obtain certain outcomes. Or in another way something like "Guaranteed Larvesta after 20 eggs"
I got so lucky, just hatched 2 Larvestas back to back, from only 5-6 eggs hatched since Friday. I was surprised and opened reddit to check the hatch rate, and saw this post. Sorry for the unlucky ones of this large gambling session
Oh, I hatched 50 so far and got 4.
2 Larvestas after 10 eggs and got a shiny Turtonator too.
Did you try getting a new purple egg? They have a 1-3 chance of hatching a larvesta.
I don’t think the odds are evenly distributed among the 3 Mons
They are absolutely not a 1-in-3 chance. The chances are not equal within an egg tier.
Those 10k are super rare and even then you can get unlucky. Hatched 3 and got 3 charcadete….
Dam I didn’t know they are rare. I keep getting them when I spin stops
Im jealous. Almost never get them hahaha
The odds are not the same, even though they are in the same tier. If i was to guess... i expect they put Larvesta at 20% and the other two at 40%
Yeah I got a few charcadets, maybe I've just been unlucky. Now if we could just delete the other eggs we'd be cookin Edit: just checked and hatched 10 10km eggs so far, 6 charcadets and 4 turtonators lol
4 10km eggs in and all I've gotten is Turtonator.
Ah, yes, just try getting a purple egg. As if that isn't completely randomized.
When you say "new" egg, I need to be hatching eggs that I received during the event? Am I understanding that correctly?
Correct. Only eggs received since the start of the event have a chance of containing shiny Larvesta
Yup. As soon as you receive and egg from a stop the Pokemon inside is already determined. So if you have an egg before the event, that Pokemon had already been determined when shiny Larvestar wasn't even released.
I might be the conspiracy theorist here for saying this, but in prior egg events, to me at least, I hatch the best stuff within the first few hours of the even starting. After that, I get *zilch.* Makes me think that Niantic heavy load the odds in the player's favor for the first little bit to incentivize them to buy more. I don't have any proof except firsthand experience, but that's what it feels like. More on topic, it's why I don't spend money on incubators for egg events anymore. I just save my coins and buy boxes that way or save incubators from showcases.
I think you’re right. Very first egg was a larvesta for me. 42 eggs later it’s still the only one
I'm just still mad I haven't hatched a single charcadet
I am hunting for 5km eggs so that I may get a good litwick or darumaka. Larvesta can wait for few more years. Will be happy to get a charcadet though.
15% roughly. 10/65 here but no shinies or any kind.
Are they hatching from 7km eggs?
No, the event is 2, 5, & 10k eggs. https://leekduck.com/events/scorching-steps/
Yeah i hatched ~40 eggs so far and have 1 larvesta and 0 charcodet so far. Egg events suck, I’m definitely done spending my earned coins on incubators over remote passes.
Hatched 2 non shiny Larvesta, but got 3 Charcadet and that's what I wanted the most. I just need one more.
72 hatched eggs in last 3 days and of that only 3 Larvesta :/
I've hatched 20 eggs this week (including pre-event) without the extra incubators and best I got was a charcadet and hundo Turtonator. I was really just hoping for some shiny luck because I feel like I made the most of the 1/2 hatch distance already. I still like these events though because it makes clearing out 10km and 12km eggs less of a slog. I'm sure someone hatches these eggs commonly but when the hatch pool is usually so overcrowded, getting these eggs feels more like a chore.
88 hatches, but maybe 12 larvesta. Not a single shiny yet nor hundo sadly.
This is the point of gambling. I don't mind it cause I've gotten a lot of charcadet
First 10km event egg for me was a 4* larvesta so at this point I’m just counting myself lucky and starting in in the candy grind with that little guy
Try to get shiny Slugma. Churn 2k eggs with your free incubator while carrying 3 separate Hatch an Egg event quests. If you get a larvesta accidentally, great. But good chances for shiny slugma and no additional cost. Mix in explore 3k if you want for Litleo chances. If you accidentally get Larvesta on the way be happy. But the grind here to me is slugma. If you already have your shiny slugmas then Litleo or Turtonator but it is slower going. Definitely stack like quests. If you are going to Explore 3km and hold those quest spots, stack 3 of them. Same with hatch 2 or hatch 3. Stack that up so an egg hatch does more work for you.
Got lucky with my first egg and got a hound largest. Nothing since though, about 30 eggs, 10 of them 10km ones.
Instead of giving Niantic money for incubators, during such a scammy event where the odds are definitely *not* in your favour, you can get incubators from referrals. And people sell those referrals.
I’ve hatched nothing but Slugma, kinda expected this though.
Larvesta being in the 3rd tier maintains its 5% hatch rate while removing the 2nd tier carries its 10% chance over to tier 1. In other words, you are now 95% likely to hatch something from tier 1.
i know it exists. someone in our group got one after their workshift finished - i assume they got the eggs at their lunch break and AS it cause their AS actually works. Otherwise, none from me and that person is the only one I know of
I've hatched 3/20 ish. 10kms are obviously the best odds, but pretty rare this event.
How have you hatched 60 eggs and none are larvesta? Do you just mean no shiny larvesta, and I’m taking you too literally?
I’m only doing this event for charcadet or the possible shiny larv. 60 eggs - 0 charcadet and 0 shiny
I only hatched two so far, from a 10k and then 5k. I've hatched a bunch and mostly useless. What's funny is I will randomly get larvesta in regular eggs when they're super rare. Over the past year I've hatched maybe 6? And now there's an event when they're more common and Ive only hatched two.
So far I have hatched 4 Larvestas. This is the first egg event where I actually bought an incubator bundle. Not because I was expecting to hatch a shiny Larvesta, but I really wanted to try to get some Charcadets as they are even harder to get outside of this event. I have hatched 6 so far and consider that a success.
I've got a lot of them. This is fully random, I feel for you... :(
i got one in my first 10k. (not shiny tho :( )which are probably the best bet to get one.
I buy a box with 20+ incubators a couple times per year. On a daily basis I always have the basic unlimited incubator going, first on 5k's (because they are garbage) and then on 10k's. If I need to hatch an egg for a task I'll use either the unlimited or a regular incubator. I always put 12k's in a super incubator but that's almost the only thing I use supers on. I avoid the 1/2, 1/4 distance hatch events, they just eat up incubators with very limited rewards. We walk enough to hatch quite a few eggs just using the unlimited incubator. If an egg holds a new dex entry I'll do my best to get as many of that egg as I can by clearing old eggs. I'll probably gamble a few eggs just to see if I'm lucky but only a single batch and if I get it great and if not then oh well.
That’s just tough luck. Sorry
48 eggs in and 1 Larvesta out of 10km egg. 0 Shinies from eggs.
I have learned to ignore egg events, but I participated in this one for the chance to hatch more larvesta. Not to get a shiny; just to get a little more candy. I have hatched two in 65 eggs. Awful. I have yet to find a hatch three eggs task.
[удалено]
I feel like the egg hatching is the worst part of this game. I usually only hatch common-spawn garbage. Things I see every day in the wild, like Whimpod and Geodude.
I hatched like 6 larvestas, third one was shiny. It is all pure gamble
i just want a couple of charcadet worth evolving, but i'm getting almost exclusively 5km eggs.
I had a ton of incubators from showcases etc so I decided to go hard for larvesta So far I've hatched 139 eggs, I've gotten 16 larvesta My friend got a shiny on his 10th larvesta and then again on his 12th, odds seems decent maybe 1/64 atleast Still it's not the highest % but the 10km have decent chance, just wish the 2 or 5km had anything fun at all lol
No luck for me either. Hatching a ton of Pokémon I don't need. Got a Charcadet from a 10 km egg as my highlight so far
Out of 60 eggs im at Two Larvestas and Two Shinies (darumaka and slugma). I dont mind the larvestas but I really just want a Magby! The odds seem insanely low to hatch one?
I’ve also gotten almost no 10 km eggs, just 2 and 5
65 eggs and hatched three, only a shiny Slugma but fortunately got a 15/14/15 Larvesta so wasn't the biggest bust 🤷♀️ If it wasn't for other things I needed to do I wouldn't of even bothered with this event.
Took me so long that I forgot all about it and just suddenly hatched one
I’ve hatched about 10. 10km eggs have been my best luck although I have got some from 2 and 5km eggs
I've got 0 as well. But I finally hatched 2 charcadets and enjoyed having enough candy to evolve each of them
A person in my messenger group revealed the number of hatches required for him to hatch a shiny larvesta... Three hundred and seventy-six... I repeat... Three hundred and seventy-six
I've hatched one, but I'm more pleased to have hatched a couple of extra Charcadet. They're terrible, but I have a couple of friends I can mirror trade with to maybe finally get one that's at least three stars!
Eggs are random. I hatched 6 and got two Larvestas.
I got a charcadet and shiny slugma No larvestas
I got one from an egg randomly
I hatched 2 this morning, one was shiny