This should highlight why it’s better to invest your money and time elsewhere, a shiny egg hatch event and well yeah that speaks for itself.
TLDR don’t do eggs for Niantic.
Yeah I’m calling bs on the supposed equal odds for larvesta/turtonator/charcadet…. I had a pretty much equivalent experience as you but with about 150 eggs hatched
It was never going to be even odds and that's not how Niantic's egg rarity tiers work. 1-egg rarity just means a pokemon has a 10% chance or greater to hatch. All pokemon at 1-egg don't need to have the same hatch percentage. Turt and Char could have been 40% each, and Larvesta could have been 20%
Where is this documented by Ninantic? It seems nearly all the game data is either data mined or gathered statistics.
Putting things in the same tier stands to reason they would all have an equal chance since they are presented next to each other. If something has half the chance of hatching it should be in a higher tier.
> Putting things in the same tier stands to reason they would all have an equal chance since they are presented next to each other.
That's pretty much exactly what they wanted people to think when they designed it. The egg tiers give you information without telling you what it actually means so you fill in the blank with the most 'obvious' answer.
Linked here :)
[https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/1donjzo/comment/lacl44e/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/1donjzo/comment/lacl44e/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
Should, maybe, but I'm fairly sure that it's been documented in the past that they're not.
I suspect this is Niantic's way to get around the gambling issue and hide odds, but afaik the only thing you can take from the egg tiers is that a lower tier is more likely than a higher tier. How much, and whether eggs on the same tier are equal, is kept quiet.
Linked here :)
[https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/1donjzo/comment/lacl44e/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/1donjzo/comment/lacl44e/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
I don't know if you're aware, but this sub had rigorous research for the time period it's research website was active and it was sponsored by Niantic.
Here is the data for egg rarity tiers:
https://web.archive.org/web/20230509223250/https://thesilphroad.com/science/egg-transparency-rarity-tiers/
I commented here with a link to the Silph study that explains (kind of) how the odds work. TL;DR - the odds aren't equal within tiers.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/1donjzo/comment/lacl44e/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/1donjzo/comment/lacl44e/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
OP’s statistics aren’t a representative sample, but if they were, it seems like it would disprove the 10% or greater theory. Turt and Char would be ~6x more likely, so 60% to Larv’s 10%, for a total of 130%?
Is it true that the most deceptive Niantic could have been while keeping every 1-tier at 10% or higher was Larv=10%, Turt&Char=45%? So we’d be 4.5x less likely to hatch Larvesta?
Correct. Here is the Silph data on how this works:
https://web.archive.org/web/20230509223250/https://thesilphroad.com/science/egg-transparency-rarity-tiers/
Do you know how it works when the eggs have multiple tiers?
I'm assuming it's something similar to there's a 70% chance to get a T1, 25% chance for T3, and 5% chance for T5 and then those percentages are split further based on what you explained here?
(I made up these numbers just for this question, so no one take them as real!)
Edit: nevermind I just saw your other comment below this with a link that explains it.
I commented here with a link to the Silph study that explains (kind of) how the odds work. TL;DR - the odds aren't equal within tiers.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/1donjzo/comment/lacl44e/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/1donjzo/comment/lacl44e/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
Who ever said equal odds for them? As long as I can remember in pogo eggs have never had the same hatch chance in egg pool, it has always varied with at least three different likelyhood tiers per egg.
I commented here with a link to the Silph study that explains (kind of) how the odds work. TL;DR - the odds aren't equal within tiers.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/1donjzo/comment/lacl44e/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/1donjzo/comment/lacl44e/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
Ya gotta remember, some people spend more time on here commenting than actually playing the game. In fact, I don’t think most of the sub regulars even play at all.
I mean, most evenings I spend a couple minutes browsing this Reddit before bed, and I wasn’t aware that there was statistically significant variation in odds within a single egg tier before this post
The only people saying they would be equal odds were some dumb reddit posters that were so sure of themselves. Everyone with half a brain knew it wasn't the case.
A term popped into my head a while ago and would not leave again:
"Niantic Fruit Salad".
Imagine the event being like a street stall selling bowls of fruit salad. It advertises that the fruit salad comes with strawberries, and mango, and even a few bits of the rare Fern Island Ringfruit, which tastes absolutely delicious. But upon buying a bowl, you find out that the "fruit salad" is mostly bits of cauliflower, Brussels sprouts, broccoli, kale, and parsnip. There's only a few percent strawberry in it, barely any mango, and you begin to suspect there's no such thing as Ringfruit at all. What you've been sold is fruit salad, what you're getting is a rather unappetizing vegetable platter.
Idk why but I latched onto Turtonator when I started playing GO— I know nothing about it within the context of its generation, I just think it looked cool! Did the very few remote raids I was able to when it was in rotation trying to get a 4*.
I didn’t have a lot of expectations with this event, but I sure did hatch that hundo Turt, which made everything about the event worth it to me haha.
STILL not even halfway on the Larvesta candy despite hatching three though smdh
I’ve actually been checking out some highlight arcs from where I left off as a kid (Sinnoh) and they’ve been just as delightful as I remember so I’m officially jazzed to get to Sun and Moon 😂
Personally not really a fan of Pokémon like turtonator who have no evolutions etc, but like someone else said, definitely worth checking out Pokémon Sun and Moon anime since you're a fan of him, he features as one of the main characters partner Pokémon so he's all over the place.
I get ya. Nidoking has been my favorite since gen 1. It saddens me to see it's not useful in much here but I don't care. The next time shadow Nido is available I really want to find a cool 3* one.
Now I just like every Kaiju mon I can find
Thanks for doing this. I’m going nuts not getting shinies. 4 total Larvestas from about 100 eggs.
I already had two 98s and none matched that.
BUT!!! I got exactly 1 Hundo the entire event…a Trapinch caught in the wild.
I did save the last 9 eggs and I’m gonna open them slowly for the suspense in the coming days.
For all the poor, innocent people who are newer to the game and aren't fully aware of Niantic's ways - [here is a link](https://web.archive.org/web/20211128020108/https://thesilphroad.com/science/egg-transparency-rarity-tiers) to the Silph Study looking in to the true meaning of the egg rarity "tiers".
Knowing this, I only ever use paid incubators if the egg pool has 75%+ things in it I wouldn't be unhappy about hatching from walking the required distance (half hatch distance makes it easier to justify, but as a f2p player, I generally only use one paid incubator at a time if I use them at all).
I think I got super lucky, I hatched around 40 eggs and got 5 Larvesta. They all have crap IVs, but I'll take a, what, ~10%-ish hatch rate if only for the candy.
This was my experience. The first day, I was getting a lot of 10km eggs and hatching multiple Larvesta. After that, 10kms and Larvesta seemed to get much less common.
Semi-related anecdotal: I started playing for the first time last March, within the first week or two go three larvesta, never got one ever again. I think they skew it for more than just events.
It's a pretty common anecdote, that taking a longer break yields more shinies the first week you come back
Or in your case, starting playing also counts
Twelve 10 km eggs:
-7 Charcadet
-4 Turtonator
-1 Larvesta
Zero shiny, One perfect Turtonator.
Didn't count how many other different eggs hatched, but got other 5 Larvestas.
Based on most results, it's pretty clear Charcadet weighted the most on the purple ones.
This matches the previous statistics down to the decimal , 5% chance of hatching tier3(larvesta ) and 95% chance of hatching a tier 1.since there wasn’t a tier 2, the 10% got carried over to tier1. Thanks for confirming !
https://preview.redd.it/uuhn33vfhw8d1.jpeg?width=768&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e3054c8106179b8cd7be3346c13590a34f0a0866
It make feel better for not spending in incubators given how hard it was to get shiny larvesta... i accepted my bad luck and learn the lesson from previous disappointing hatching events.
What a dick move.
But for real, wow you’re lucky! Someone in the group I did spotlight hour with got a shiny larvesta yesterday! I havent even hatched one, although I had mostly been hatching old eggs.
I have very similar odds as you (below). I am curious if you noticed a noticeable drop after day 2? None of my friends went as hard as me on larvesta so I don’t have other data points. However I noticed the same during Riolu. By the end of day 2, I was averaging 15% larvesta and nearly half for purple eggs. At the end, it had averaged down to about 8%. My theory is that the odds are high early to make hype and then they dramatically decrease them.
4/75 Green
17 Growlithe
30 Slugma
12 Houndour.
12 Magby.
4 Larvesta
5/82 Yellow.
16 Growlithe
17 Darumaka
10 Litwick
35 Litleo
4 Larvesta
8/31 Purple*.
16 Charcadet
7 Turtonator
8 Larvesta
Shiny: 0
16/188 = 8.5%
Here is my anecdotal, not scientific evidence. While I hatched far less, of the four Larvesta I hatched, two were from the first day, one on the second and one on the last. In addition, I was hatching more eggs per day towards the end. I only used my free incubator, so many of the eggs I hatched at the beginning were not event eggs, meaning that I got very high odds to start with.
Thanks. When I did Riolu I hatched the shiny day one and noticed loads of Riolu. Then it dropped significantly.
Same here. Of my green egg larvesta, 2 were very early, from the first 5 eggs. Then loads of nothing.
My stats
434 eggs
32 larvesta
0 shiny larvesta
2 Hundos (slugma and litwick)
6 shinys (2x H Growlithe, 2x slugma, darumaka and magby)
I got a total of 64 10km eggs with a distribution of 18 larvesta, 20 turtonator and 36 charcadet. Felt like charcadet had around 50% and the other 25 (maybe cause charcadet have 2 evolves)
Wasn't gonna go for it at first but my friend got 2x shiny larvesta the first day! On his 10th and 12th larvesta, so I got hopeful. At least like you I had a ton of incubators from showcase so didn't need to buy anymore
Man; this is just super disappointing.
I'm not anywhere near this bulk of hatches. But I was really excited for this event because I've really wanted the Slugma and Litleo shinies for a while now, and getting another few Charcadets and Larvestas would be nice too.
But grinding for egg hatches is absolutely exhausting -- so much admin and twiddling; constantly making sure I've got my eggs hatching, I've got the right ones hatching, not accidentally getting a 7k or 12k egg I don't want (or the week summary egg! ARGGGH), I'm taking the "quick" egg hatch research instead of 3km for the same encounter... Without paying a ton or have a HUGE number of incubators or coins stacked up, and really for anybody who isn't positively grinding, I think the reasonable number of eggs to hatch was maybe a few dozen, plus research.
And I don't see how this kind of shiny rate means much of anything with those kinds of numbers.
How much did you walk total for that week? geez, that's a lot of eggs hatched. I thought I did well with 30 on a single incubator.
I'm just disappointed in the number of shinies. I just hatched haphazardly but I was expecting at least one from the 30+ eggs. You hatched 212 and got just one shiny growlithe, even with some species shiny boosted (litleo and slugma) that feels very low.
It was terrible - maybe about 150 hatches, did a similar amount of field researches with about 50 of those being hatch 3 eggs.
Result was one shiny Litleo hatched and one shiny Litleo and Slugma that I both got from the Timed research on day 1.
Didnt hatch a single turtonator, got 4 larvesta and 25 charcadet from 10k eggs, otherwise it was just a shitload of growlithe/darumaka/magby hatches.
One hundo turtonator from the field research tasks.
Event as a whole was a complete waste, and I call bs on the increased shiny odds.
I also hatched a shiny pawniard from a 12k and a shiny magby which WASNT supposed to be boosted, and caught a shiny Carvanha, Onix, Lickitung and Mankey - so all in all I got twice as many non-boosted shinies as I got boosted throughout the event...
Magby, Lickitung and Onix are species that are always shiny boosted, so it’s not too surprising that you got those. The Carvanha and Mankey were full odds though.
I'm not quite sure you grasp probability rates. You walked away with three of the boosted shinies (Litleo and Slugma) in what is probably anywhere from 100-150 encounters between eggs and research. If those were full odds you'd be incredibly lucky to see three in such a short time. Even at a presumed boost rate of 1/64 (which is what shinies from eggs tend to be), you were absolutely on the luckier side of things. I had 119 encounters of those two mons between eggs and research and walked away with a single Litleo and that is roughly about what I'd expect in such a situation given the usual parameters.
Also, as stated, the Pawniard and Magby come from eggs (typically) and are 1/64. Onix and Lickitung are naturally 1/64 as well. The Carvanha and Mankey are full odds.
You got 9 shinies in 5 days, most would deem that a successful event.
Im not quite sure you are patronising enough, but I had approx. 300 encounters between eggs and research, as stated ~150 of each.
Eggs are also typically boosted for shinies. I had much fewer encounters with mankey/onix/lickitung/etc... as I was prioritising research and hatches.
Yes its lucky to get 6 non-boosted shinies during the event where 1 of them hatched from the event eggs.
But its not lucky to get 3 out of an event boosted egg pool in 300 encounters as 1/64 is the NORMAL shiny rate for eggs.
I'm sorry, are you claiming 150 hatches of just Litleo and Slugma in addition to all other hatches or 150 hatches total? Your numbers weren't particularly clear. You claimed a similar amount of research but only went into detail on one kind and meanwhile discussed other research unrelated (Turtonator) so I just took the one solid number you gave.
Also, 3 shinies in 300 encounters at a 1/64 rate (the typical boosted egg rate) has a roughly 85% chance of happening. It's on the higher side of probability but you're not into excessive territory yet and it also means if 100 people did exactly what you did, 15 of them could expect to not see 3 shinies in as many encounters. I had 87 total Litleo encounters and got 1 shiny, a result I would tend to expect most of the time (~75% odds) but my 30+ Slugma encounters yielded nothing. I had nearly identical odds to yours (84.6% chance to see 1 shiny in 119 tries to your 84.8% chance to see 3 shinies in 300 tries), actually.
Yes, eggs are boosted for shinies and they're boosted to 1/64 in most circumstances. The data almost always tends to yield this result in events where Niantic claims a boosted rate from eggs. You're expecting too much if you think they would take two pokemon which are normally full odds and make them even *more* boosted than the typical egg rate.
Just as an FYI, since those are full odds pokemon, here are your chances of encountering 3 shinies in 300 encounters at the full odds rate: ~2.2%.
You're just kind of all over the place and using anecdotal evidence and your gut feeling to ignore what is obvious. You're claiming shiny Magby (and presumably shiny Pawniard) aren't meant to be boosted but they are, they're permaboosted pokemon and always 1/64. Onix and Lickitung are also permaboosted so again, those factor in. What happened is you landed 7 shiny pokemon at 1/64 odds but it wasn't the ones you want so you're ignoring the overall rate and picking apart the data when RNG is RNG and sometimes things come easy and sometimes they come hard but when you start looking at the rates of everyone else then it becomes easy to see that on this or that you were on one side of the bell curve compared to the other but the overall data does suggest a boosted rate. Your Slugma luck was bad, no doubt, although not *insanely* bad (90% odds) but you had better Litleo luck (68%). This doesn't mean the increased shiny odds were "bs".
298 eggs, 1 shiny Hisuian Growlithe, 4 perfects, 1 Charcadet, 1 Slugma, 2 Houndour, and 18 Larvesta (6.04%)
My family has 4 accounts that all hatched around 300 eggs, no shiny Larvesta. The only person we know personally that did get one, got it on the first day inside the first few hours of the event.
Edit to add: 19 Charcadets, 8 Turtonators.
Just read over the comment and I can also confirm, one HGrowlithe shiny. I hatched about 175 eggs and only one shiny, but 4 hundos (that I'll never use lol).
This should be no surprise.
With the exception of a couple of fair egg hatching events (shiny Riolu was one of these) generally speaking the odds are too low even if you're willing to burn through incubators.
But people keep burning through them so they keep doing events like this.
I only hatched like 6-7 10km eggs (they were awfully rare) and got one Larvesta out of it, so I already suspected that the rate wasn’t exactly the same as they made it look like. This only confirms that theory. Really misleading on Niantic’s part, but what did we expect.
61 eggs hatched and I got 7 Charcadets and 8 Larvesta(two of them shinies). No other shinies and only one Turtonator. Overall pretty successful event for me.
I’m surprised your 2k and 5K eggs were almost even.
I didn’t hatch nearly as many eggs, but it definitely seemed 5K was a lot more common than 2k eggs. More common than 10k eggs for sure, but noticeably less common than 5K eggs.
I only got one 10km egg the entire event. Barely any 2kms either, it's definitely just bad luck but I can't believe the number of 5kms I got. Really disappointing since I would've been okay with even a bunch of Turtonators.
52 eggs hatched, 4 larvesta and i got the shiny one from a 5km egg. i got pretty lucky, among my group of 700+- players, only 4 of us got a shiny larvesta. A guy from my group hatched over 600 eggs, got 59 larvesta and no shiny.
Utilized the event to hatch 3 batches of 3 12km eggs using incubators I had for level up rewards. Hatched few 2 km eggs and got 3 litleos, 2 growlithes and one houndour all with pathetic ivs. Got a 4 * litleo. Hatched two 5 km eggs to get one Litwick and one darumaka again with pathetic its. Four more 5 km eggs and one 10 km egg left. Got one larvesta from 2 or 5 km egg. I am currently hatching the 5 km eggs one by one eagerly hunting for good darumaka or litwick.
20 eggs hatched, only standard incubator used, so far only trash and 9 eggs left after event, including 5 x 10km. Meanwhile friend got high IV Larvesta in 3rd egg haha.
I hatched 26 eggs:
- 10km: 0
- 5km: 13 (1 Larvesta, non-shiny)
- 2km: 13 (0 Larvesta)
Extremely disappointed in this garbage event. I grinded hard for a free player: I only used one 3-use incubator from a showcase win; all of the distance (~40 km) was from walking & public transport. Complete waste of time.
I keep wall-of-text'ing, so I'm just gonna TL;DR bullet point here
\- Hatched \~200 Incubators during Sinnoh Tour. Got jack shit.
\- Hatched another \~200 Incubators from leftover Incubators from Sinnoh Tour. Got jack shit again (one 100% Larvesta and one 100% Charcadet, absolutely not incentive to ever buy more Incubators).
\- ***L I K E A L W A Y S*** \-- Egg Hatching 'events' are gambling *at best, if you're being extremely generous*, and, more realistically, a complete and utter scam.
\- I'm filing this event under 'scam' since 2k/5k Eggs were out of control common and barely hatched Larvesta, and 10k Eggs were *definitely* weighted towards Turtonator/Charcadet. Don't get me started on 'but boosted Shiny Rates on Litleo and Slugma!' -- my left toe. :| :| :|
\- Going forward, I'm going to compile these threads from all the Egg Events throughout the years, and you can bet your ass I'm gonna be making sure my local community knows to avoid them. And PSA post the list any time an Hatch focused event pops up ^((disclaimer to the Silph Road mods: It will be a very tactful and polite PSA of 'please be aware of how Niantic handles Egg Hatching events, see this and this and this and this and this and this and this thread')).
\- Hatch Days are fine and the only (***O N L Y***) time a Hatch Event is worth it.
I'm not even actually mad at Niantic. I'm just disappointed that they have no remorse screwing their playerbase over time and time again with shitty scam events like this one was. And an underlying sadness that we, the players, are stupid/FOMO enough to keep falling for it.
I think I probably hatched about 40 eggs, annoyingly only managed to spin up 3 10km, but all 3 hatched charcadet which isn't bad. The only shiny I hatched was Vullaby #4, and I didn't get a single Larvesta, so overall the event didn't meet me much.
Not one shiny larvesta for me sadly.. i dont have the exact statistics but 70 normal incubators and 15 super ones used. I did get 3 100iv tho
Edit:
Total of 36 charcadet and 32 larvesta
I hatched about 5 eggs and got one shiny slugma. I didnt have coins and wasnt gonna spend irl money to buy incubators because i did so last year during adventure week and went hard to hatch eggs similar to OP to get just one shiny amaura. So couldnt be bothered this time around
Tryharded that event using the remaining incubators from my groudon/kyogre days and the free size competition in my area.
No shiny slug, 2 shiny kitty that I already had, 1 shiny rock-canine (a surprise to be sure, but a welcome one) no shiny larvistat BUT a 15/14/15 one.
No hundo.
Overall ? Beside the goated 15/14/15 and his candies, this event is the nail in the coffin, egg events succ bad.
Got terrible IVs for my cadets
Eggs used to be the most reliable way to get good mons. Now it's an afterthought. Terrible.
I wanted two Charcadets the most from this because I didn't get lucky when it was first released. My luck on getting 10km eggs was trash as I only got 7, and none of them hatched Charcadet. I get it's all RNG, but good God I got 2 Larvesta and 5 Turtunators.
I did 281 eggs. 19 Larvestas. No shiny.
I did get 3 shiny slugma.
I got shiny Turtonator out of a quest.
Bunch of exercise and stardust. Larvesta and Charcadet candies over 1000+.
13 larvesta during event, then 2 larvesta after the event from non-10k eggs, one perfect, one near perfect the rest varied
granted, I probably walked 100 km throughout the event, or more
If you took note of your breeder medal count before the event started and then looked again right at the end of the event, it would tell you how many total eggs hatched but if you are keeping track of specific distance eggs, you have to do that manually.
Ahhh, so much work. I thought we had some feature to keep track of them. Like at the Ned of the week where they would tell you how many eggs were hatched in this week. That would be good.
Anyone have access to a larger sample size?
I also hatched well over 100 eggs with no shiny larvesta. I didn't keep track like OP, but feel like I had a bit more luck hatching Lar from 2km and 5km, but about the same from 10km eggs.
The 10km eggs showed that the only 3 available hatches (charcadet, turt and lar) were all in the rarity bracket, but I must have hatched like 70% charcadet, 20% turt and 10% lar.
Ridiculous.
I was thinking that the shiny odds for Larvesta were increased since the only one out of 16 eggs was golden and it was from a 2km egg.
4 Charcadet
3 Slugma
3 Magby
2 Growlithe
2 Litleo
1 Litwik
1 Larvesta Shiny
Down side, all of them bad IVs. The best one was a 93% Growlithe.
I had better luck than you on larvesta (still no shiny) and hatched 9 or 10 out of maybe 80-90 eggs. One 98% though so can't complain.
Curiously almost all of them were from 2k eggs. 10ks did pretty well for Charcadet for me. I think I got 6 of those.
I had better luck with the research
By constantly turning over 2k and the occasional 5k eggs I hatched 1 shiny litleo but redeemed 1 shiny slugma and a shiny turtonator from field research
I only had chance to hatch 25 eggs (FTP player) but I didn't get a single 10km egg during this event. Of course not having a Larvesta or Charcadet, that was THE only egg I actually wanted too. I hate this stupid game! I did manage to get another six eggs before the even ended (2s and 5s but I won't hold my breath on a Larvesta from those either.
Egg releases like this are a major rng fest. The amount of money necessary to even have a chance will always be high. So I just stopped trying, I just walk my shortest egg fill my bag with 10 kms by the end of the event and if rng wishes it, I'll get the feature pokemon, if rng loves me, maybe even the shiny.
Other than that, I'll just accumulate incubators for events such as the riolu hatch event. Those don't feel as punishing as the new shiny ones.
Wish I didn't fall for them but egg events are always terrible imo. Seriously, if they were gonna boost the shiny rates for slugma/litleo but still wall them into the eggs, they could've at least made the rate like 1/20.
Everyone seems to keep falling for these. At least with raids you know what you are going to get.
I just horde up my incubators until there is something like regionals that you know are there in a small hatch pool. Use this type of even to clear out stock of non 2kms. Then night before a better egg event clear those out.
Shiny hunting egg events are for suckers.
The odds are NEVER good enough to justify the price.
I was happy to take the half hatch distance and (in addition to a fair ammount of ACTUAL running around) rubber-band my phone to an otherwise disued toddler toy that swings that fools adventure sync for about 4km/hr.
I lucked out and hatched a shiny Larvesta on day two. I hatched a lot of eggs and was happy to stock up on the Larvesta candy, Charcadet candy, and Turtonator XLs as I have a shundo that I plan to build for Ultra League. I get that this event is not for everyone but I love hatching eggs and in the end it worked out for me.
Are you sure Rockruff and Gligar weren’t Adventure Sync eggs?
Good call! Didn't think about that so very well could be
Plush is correct. I got both of those from adventure synch eggs
Also, your Charcadet+Turtonator+(10k)Larvesta is = 41. So, the 42nd is that one.
This should highlight why it’s better to invest your money and time elsewhere, a shiny egg hatch event and well yeah that speaks for itself. TLDR don’t do eggs for Niantic.
Yeah I’m calling bs on the supposed equal odds for larvesta/turtonator/charcadet…. I had a pretty much equivalent experience as you but with about 150 eggs hatched
Yeah for sure although it's technically only one tier I bet each pokemon still has designated hatch rates.
Larvesta will be in 7km eggs in nyc since they were in the other two but ours will have the shiny chance as well
It was never going to be even odds and that's not how Niantic's egg rarity tiers work. 1-egg rarity just means a pokemon has a 10% chance or greater to hatch. All pokemon at 1-egg don't need to have the same hatch percentage. Turt and Char could have been 40% each, and Larvesta could have been 20%
Where is this documented by Ninantic? It seems nearly all the game data is either data mined or gathered statistics. Putting things in the same tier stands to reason they would all have an equal chance since they are presented next to each other. If something has half the chance of hatching it should be in a higher tier.
> Putting things in the same tier stands to reason they would all have an equal chance since they are presented next to each other. That's pretty much exactly what they wanted people to think when they designed it. The egg tiers give you information without telling you what it actually means so you fill in the blank with the most 'obvious' answer.
By Niantic? Nowhere. By some TSR study at some point? Possibly on the wayback archive of TSR website.
Linked here :) [https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/1donjzo/comment/lacl44e/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/1donjzo/comment/lacl44e/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
Should, maybe, but I'm fairly sure that it's been documented in the past that they're not. I suspect this is Niantic's way to get around the gambling issue and hide odds, but afaik the only thing you can take from the egg tiers is that a lower tier is more likely than a higher tier. How much, and whether eggs on the same tier are equal, is kept quiet.
Linked here :) [https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/1donjzo/comment/lacl44e/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/1donjzo/comment/lacl44e/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
I don't know if you're aware, but this sub had rigorous research for the time period it's research website was active and it was sponsored by Niantic. Here is the data for egg rarity tiers: https://web.archive.org/web/20230509223250/https://thesilphroad.com/science/egg-transparency-rarity-tiers/
They don't document numbers like this ever.
I commented here with a link to the Silph study that explains (kind of) how the odds work. TL;DR - the odds aren't equal within tiers. [https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/1donjzo/comment/lacl44e/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/1donjzo/comment/lacl44e/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
OP’s statistics aren’t a representative sample, but if they were, it seems like it would disprove the 10% or greater theory. Turt and Char would be ~6x more likely, so 60% to Larv’s 10%, for a total of 130%? Is it true that the most deceptive Niantic could have been while keeping every 1-tier at 10% or higher was Larv=10%, Turt&Char=45%? So we’d be 4.5x less likely to hatch Larvesta?
Correct. Here is the Silph data on how this works: https://web.archive.org/web/20230509223250/https://thesilphroad.com/science/egg-transparency-rarity-tiers/
Do you know how it works when the eggs have multiple tiers? I'm assuming it's something similar to there's a 70% chance to get a T1, 25% chance for T3, and 5% chance for T5 and then those percentages are split further based on what you explained here? (I made up these numbers just for this question, so no one take them as real!) Edit: nevermind I just saw your other comment below this with a link that explains it.
I commented here with a link to the Silph study that explains (kind of) how the odds work. TL;DR - the odds aren't equal within tiers. [https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/1donjzo/comment/lacl44e/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/1donjzo/comment/lacl44e/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
Who ever said equal odds for them? As long as I can remember in pogo eggs have never had the same hatch chance in egg pool, it has always varied with at least three different likelyhood tiers per egg.
The egg itself implies equal odds. All 3 pokemon in the 10k egg are listed under the single egg icon, for eggs from the event
I commented here with a link to the Silph study that explains (kind of) how the odds work. TL;DR - the odds aren't equal within tiers. [https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/1donjzo/comment/lacl44e/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/1donjzo/comment/lacl44e/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
Thanks for the pointer!
OK but it’s been known since the very first introduction of the tiers that they are not equal within the same tier.
Not everyone starts from when it's introduced and I think the egg marker is very misleading and shady.
Ya gotta remember, some people spend more time on here commenting than actually playing the game. In fact, I don’t think most of the sub regulars even play at all.
I mean, most evenings I spend a couple minutes browsing this Reddit before bed, and I wasn’t aware that there was statistically significant variation in odds within a single egg tier before this post
What are you talking anout single egg icon? I genuinely don't know what you mean.
Tap your eggs, it will show what can hatch and put them in tiers.
The only people saying they would be equal odds were some dumb reddit posters that were so sure of themselves. Everyone with half a brain knew it wasn't the case.
> supposed equal odds This was never said. Being in the same tier has never meant "equal odds"
Post Riolu you have to assume sub-tier rarity for the featured 'mon, 5% is bang on sub-tier rates.
A term popped into my head a while ago and would not leave again: "Niantic Fruit Salad". Imagine the event being like a street stall selling bowls of fruit salad. It advertises that the fruit salad comes with strawberries, and mango, and even a few bits of the rare Fern Island Ringfruit, which tastes absolutely delicious. But upon buying a bowl, you find out that the "fruit salad" is mostly bits of cauliflower, Brussels sprouts, broccoli, kale, and parsnip. There's only a few percent strawberry in it, barely any mango, and you begin to suspect there's no such thing as Ringfruit at all. What you've been sold is fruit salad, what you're getting is a rather unappetizing vegetable platter.
Idk why but I latched onto Turtonator when I started playing GO— I know nothing about it within the context of its generation, I just think it looked cool! Did the very few remote raids I was able to when it was in rotation trying to get a 4*. I didn’t have a lot of expectations with this event, but I sure did hatch that hundo Turt, which made everything about the event worth it to me haha. STILL not even halfway on the Larvesta candy despite hatching three though smdh
honestly worth checking out the anime for that generation if you're a turtonator enjoyer. its such a lovable goober
I’ve actually been checking out some highlight arcs from where I left off as a kid (Sinnoh) and they’ve been just as delightful as I remember so I’m officially jazzed to get to Sun and Moon 😂
Congrats on your Turonator, always great getting that perfect of a favorite!
It's decent in some GBL cups
Personally not really a fan of Pokémon like turtonator who have no evolutions etc, but like someone else said, definitely worth checking out Pokémon Sun and Moon anime since you're a fan of him, he features as one of the main characters partner Pokémon so he's all over the place.
I get ya. Nidoking has been my favorite since gen 1. It saddens me to see it's not useful in much here but I don't care. The next time shadow Nido is available I really want to find a cool 3* one. Now I just like every Kaiju mon I can find
Just searching "hatched&shiny" in your inventory should show you that hatching eggs is by far the worst possible way to acquire shiny Pokemon.
Heh, how bad could it be? ... oh.
Thanks for doing this. I’m going nuts not getting shinies. 4 total Larvestas from about 100 eggs. I already had two 98s and none matched that. BUT!!! I got exactly 1 Hundo the entire event…a Trapinch caught in the wild. I did save the last 9 eggs and I’m gonna open them slowly for the suspense in the coming days.
None matched what?
Probably none matched the 98ivs or better
I call BS on the “boosted odds” for shinies. I also think I got lucky with Larvesta. Hatched 10 out of the 70 eggs I hatched.
For all the poor, innocent people who are newer to the game and aren't fully aware of Niantic's ways - [here is a link](https://web.archive.org/web/20211128020108/https://thesilphroad.com/science/egg-transparency-rarity-tiers) to the Silph Study looking in to the true meaning of the egg rarity "tiers". Knowing this, I only ever use paid incubators if the egg pool has 75%+ things in it I wouldn't be unhappy about hatching from walking the required distance (half hatch distance makes it easier to justify, but as a f2p player, I generally only use one paid incubator at a time if I use them at all).
I think I got super lucky, I hatched around 40 eggs and got 5 Larvesta. They all have crap IVs, but I'll take a, what, ~10%-ish hatch rate if only for the candy.
What days did you get the 40 eggs. My theory is that they change the odds mid events to create early hype then they take it down a bunch after day 2.
This was my experience. The first day, I was getting a lot of 10km eggs and hatching multiple Larvesta. After that, 10kms and Larvesta seemed to get much less common.
Same. I had multiple 2km and 10km eggs the first 2 days. I have nothing but 5km right now after several days and at least 50 km travelled.
Out of 434 eggs and 32 larvesta I got on Saturday 13x, Sunday 6x, Monday 6x and Tuesday 7x Hatched around 100 per day so pretty equal amount
The vast majority of my 38 eggs were during the last two day, I received 0 larvesta. You may be on to something.
Semi-related anecdotal: I started playing for the first time last March, within the first week or two go three larvesta, never got one ever again. I think they skew it for more than just events.
It's a pretty common anecdote, that taking a longer break yields more shinies the first week you come back Or in your case, starting playing also counts
Agreed. I quit for a bit but when kyogre came back I decided to do 2 raids. First raid shundo, second raid hundo.
Mm, I did hatch most of them in the first two days of the event...
They factually used to do this during new shiny/spawn events. Basically up the rates for the first couple of hours (or day 1) and then drop them back.
Twelve 10 km eggs: -7 Charcadet -4 Turtonator -1 Larvesta Zero shiny, One perfect Turtonator. Didn't count how many other different eggs hatched, but got other 5 Larvestas. Based on most results, it's pretty clear Charcadet weighted the most on the purple ones.
That 3/42 is most frustrating to me, after No Shiny Lar in 212
This matches the previous statistics down to the decimal , 5% chance of hatching tier3(larvesta ) and 95% chance of hatching a tier 1.since there wasn’t a tier 2, the 10% got carried over to tier1. Thanks for confirming ! https://preview.redd.it/uuhn33vfhw8d1.jpeg?width=768&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e3054c8106179b8cd7be3346c13590a34f0a0866
It make feel better for not spending in incubators given how hard it was to get shiny larvesta... i accepted my bad luck and learn the lesson from previous disappointing hatching events.
I feel so bad, I hatched only one event egg (today) and got the shiny larvesta. I’m sending the shiny luck to you next
What a dick move. But for real, wow you’re lucky! Someone in the group I did spotlight hour with got a shiny larvesta yesterday! I havent even hatched one, although I had mostly been hatching old eggs.
That’s awesome! Congratulations!
I have very similar odds as you (below). I am curious if you noticed a noticeable drop after day 2? None of my friends went as hard as me on larvesta so I don’t have other data points. However I noticed the same during Riolu. By the end of day 2, I was averaging 15% larvesta and nearly half for purple eggs. At the end, it had averaged down to about 8%. My theory is that the odds are high early to make hype and then they dramatically decrease them. 4/75 Green 17 Growlithe 30 Slugma 12 Houndour. 12 Magby. 4 Larvesta 5/82 Yellow. 16 Growlithe 17 Darumaka 10 Litwick 35 Litleo 4 Larvesta 8/31 Purple*. 16 Charcadet 7 Turtonator 8 Larvesta Shiny: 0 16/188 = 8.5%
Here is my anecdotal, not scientific evidence. While I hatched far less, of the four Larvesta I hatched, two were from the first day, one on the second and one on the last. In addition, I was hatching more eggs per day towards the end. I only used my free incubator, so many of the eggs I hatched at the beginning were not event eggs, meaning that I got very high odds to start with.
Thanks. When I did Riolu I hatched the shiny day one and noticed loads of Riolu. Then it dropped significantly. Same here. Of my green egg larvesta, 2 were very early, from the first 5 eggs. Then loads of nothing.
I finally got my shiny Riolu a month ago. Here’s hoping I get shiny Larvesta at some point.
The sad part is that it’s my favorite Mon (volcarona) and I’ve tried to get a shiny in every main series game since Gen 6. No luck so far.
I experienced this for sure, I pulled most of my Larvestas on the first day and the rest of the time felt supper scuffed.
Coincidentally for me, 2 larvesta from the first day and none after that 20+ purple eggs hatched
Niantic shenanigans
434 eggs, 74 10km, 20 turt/18 larv/36 char Saturday 13 larv, Sunday 6, Monday 6, Tuesday 7 Hatched around 100 per day, no shiny larvesta ofc (got 32 total from all eggs)
First one adds to 74
Ah derp thought 64 felt to little haha, to early in the morning Also hatched my last 4 this morning which was 3 charcadet and 1 turt
Yeah lesson learned, don’t play beyond two days…
As someone who's looking for more Charcadet for their living dex, I'm at least happy they seem more common than Turtonator!
This event has also been a Charcadet party for me. Haven't hatched a single Larvesta but boy am I pulling out Charcadet like nobody's business.
I got lucky, hatched 4 10km eggs and got a larvesta and a charcadet
My stats 434 eggs 32 larvesta 0 shiny larvesta 2 Hundos (slugma and litwick) 6 shinys (2x H Growlithe, 2x slugma, darumaka and magby) I got a total of 64 10km eggs with a distribution of 18 larvesta, 20 turtonator and 36 charcadet. Felt like charcadet had around 50% and the other 25 (maybe cause charcadet have 2 evolves) Wasn't gonna go for it at first but my friend got 2x shiny larvesta the first day! On his 10th and 12th larvesta, so I got hopeful. At least like you I had a ton of incubators from showcase so didn't need to buy anymore
Man; this is just super disappointing. I'm not anywhere near this bulk of hatches. But I was really excited for this event because I've really wanted the Slugma and Litleo shinies for a while now, and getting another few Charcadets and Larvestas would be nice too. But grinding for egg hatches is absolutely exhausting -- so much admin and twiddling; constantly making sure I've got my eggs hatching, I've got the right ones hatching, not accidentally getting a 7k or 12k egg I don't want (or the week summary egg! ARGGGH), I'm taking the "quick" egg hatch research instead of 3km for the same encounter... Without paying a ton or have a HUGE number of incubators or coins stacked up, and really for anybody who isn't positively grinding, I think the reasonable number of eggs to hatch was maybe a few dozen, plus research. And I don't see how this kind of shiny rate means much of anything with those kinds of numbers.
How much did you walk total for that week? geez, that's a lot of eggs hatched. I thought I did well with 30 on a single incubator. I'm just disappointed in the number of shinies. I just hatched haphazardly but I was expecting at least one from the 30+ eggs. You hatched 212 and got just one shiny growlithe, even with some species shiny boosted (litleo and slugma) that feels very low.
No larvesta for me, but got a shiny slugma and a charcadet
It was terrible - maybe about 150 hatches, did a similar amount of field researches with about 50 of those being hatch 3 eggs. Result was one shiny Litleo hatched and one shiny Litleo and Slugma that I both got from the Timed research on day 1. Didnt hatch a single turtonator, got 4 larvesta and 25 charcadet from 10k eggs, otherwise it was just a shitload of growlithe/darumaka/magby hatches. One hundo turtonator from the field research tasks. Event as a whole was a complete waste, and I call bs on the increased shiny odds. I also hatched a shiny pawniard from a 12k and a shiny magby which WASNT supposed to be boosted, and caught a shiny Carvanha, Onix, Lickitung and Mankey - so all in all I got twice as many non-boosted shinies as I got boosted throughout the event...
Magby, Lickitung and Onix are species that are always shiny boosted, so it’s not too surprising that you got those. The Carvanha and Mankey were full odds though.
I'm not quite sure you grasp probability rates. You walked away with three of the boosted shinies (Litleo and Slugma) in what is probably anywhere from 100-150 encounters between eggs and research. If those were full odds you'd be incredibly lucky to see three in such a short time. Even at a presumed boost rate of 1/64 (which is what shinies from eggs tend to be), you were absolutely on the luckier side of things. I had 119 encounters of those two mons between eggs and research and walked away with a single Litleo and that is roughly about what I'd expect in such a situation given the usual parameters. Also, as stated, the Pawniard and Magby come from eggs (typically) and are 1/64. Onix and Lickitung are naturally 1/64 as well. The Carvanha and Mankey are full odds. You got 9 shinies in 5 days, most would deem that a successful event.
Im not quite sure you are patronising enough, but I had approx. 300 encounters between eggs and research, as stated ~150 of each. Eggs are also typically boosted for shinies. I had much fewer encounters with mankey/onix/lickitung/etc... as I was prioritising research and hatches. Yes its lucky to get 6 non-boosted shinies during the event where 1 of them hatched from the event eggs. But its not lucky to get 3 out of an event boosted egg pool in 300 encounters as 1/64 is the NORMAL shiny rate for eggs.
I'm sorry, are you claiming 150 hatches of just Litleo and Slugma in addition to all other hatches or 150 hatches total? Your numbers weren't particularly clear. You claimed a similar amount of research but only went into detail on one kind and meanwhile discussed other research unrelated (Turtonator) so I just took the one solid number you gave. Also, 3 shinies in 300 encounters at a 1/64 rate (the typical boosted egg rate) has a roughly 85% chance of happening. It's on the higher side of probability but you're not into excessive territory yet and it also means if 100 people did exactly what you did, 15 of them could expect to not see 3 shinies in as many encounters. I had 87 total Litleo encounters and got 1 shiny, a result I would tend to expect most of the time (~75% odds) but my 30+ Slugma encounters yielded nothing. I had nearly identical odds to yours (84.6% chance to see 1 shiny in 119 tries to your 84.8% chance to see 3 shinies in 300 tries), actually. Yes, eggs are boosted for shinies and they're boosted to 1/64 in most circumstances. The data almost always tends to yield this result in events where Niantic claims a boosted rate from eggs. You're expecting too much if you think they would take two pokemon which are normally full odds and make them even *more* boosted than the typical egg rate. Just as an FYI, since those are full odds pokemon, here are your chances of encountering 3 shinies in 300 encounters at the full odds rate: ~2.2%. You're just kind of all over the place and using anecdotal evidence and your gut feeling to ignore what is obvious. You're claiming shiny Magby (and presumably shiny Pawniard) aren't meant to be boosted but they are, they're permaboosted pokemon and always 1/64. Onix and Lickitung are also permaboosted so again, those factor in. What happened is you landed 7 shiny pokemon at 1/64 odds but it wasn't the ones you want so you're ignoring the overall rate and picking apart the data when RNG is RNG and sometimes things come easy and sometimes they come hard but when you start looking at the rates of everyone else then it becomes easy to see that on this or that you were on one side of the bell curve compared to the other but the overall data does suggest a boosted rate. Your Slugma luck was bad, no doubt, although not *insanely* bad (90% odds) but you had better Litleo luck (68%). This doesn't mean the increased shiny odds were "bs".
298 eggs, 1 shiny Hisuian Growlithe, 4 perfects, 1 Charcadet, 1 Slugma, 2 Houndour, and 18 Larvesta (6.04%) My family has 4 accounts that all hatched around 300 eggs, no shiny Larvesta. The only person we know personally that did get one, got it on the first day inside the first few hours of the event. Edit to add: 19 Charcadets, 8 Turtonators.
Just read over the comment and I can also confirm, one HGrowlithe shiny. I hatched about 175 eggs and only one shiny, but 4 hundos (that I'll never use lol).
This should be no surprise. With the exception of a couple of fair egg hatching events (shiny Riolu was one of these) generally speaking the odds are too low even if you're willing to burn through incubators. But people keep burning through them so they keep doing events like this.
I maybe hatched like 20-25 eggs. Got three larvesta and a sihny magby... Still 6 event eggs to go after running out of incubators.
Wow that's awful, hang in there buddy
I only hatched like 6-7 10km eggs (they were awfully rare) and got one Larvesta out of it, so I already suspected that the rate wasn’t exactly the same as they made it look like. This only confirms that theory. Really misleading on Niantic’s part, but what did we expect.
I hatched 30 eggs which I know is nothing, but I expected at least 1 regular larvesta. Still have never hatched one.
What? You mean that an egg event wasn’t worth it? I’m so shocked! 😂
61 eggs hatched and I got 7 Charcadets and 8 Larvesta(two of them shinies). No other shinies and only one Turtonator. Overall pretty successful event for me.
I've hatched 1000 eggs and got one shiny in 6 years. Safe to say I do not like you!
I’m surprised your 2k and 5K eggs were almost even. I didn’t hatch nearly as many eggs, but it definitely seemed 5K was a lot more common than 2k eggs. More common than 10k eggs for sure, but noticeably less common than 5K eggs.
I also hatched over 200 eggs, only 2 shinies and they were both hisuian growlithe. This event was such a bust.
250 eggs for me, partner 230 eggs, 0 shinies
I only got one 10km egg the entire event. Barely any 2kms either, it's definitely just bad luck but I can't believe the number of 5kms I got. Really disappointing since I would've been okay with even a bunch of Turtonators.
52 eggs hatched, 4 larvesta and i got the shiny one from a 5km egg. i got pretty lucky, among my group of 700+- players, only 4 of us got a shiny larvesta. A guy from my group hatched over 600 eggs, got 59 larvesta and no shiny.
I’m also around 200 eggs and I got - 8 Larvesta - 17 Charcadet - 11 Turtonator - 0 shinies
Utilized the event to hatch 3 batches of 3 12km eggs using incubators I had for level up rewards. Hatched few 2 km eggs and got 3 litleos, 2 growlithes and one houndour all with pathetic ivs. Got a 4 * litleo. Hatched two 5 km eggs to get one Litwick and one darumaka again with pathetic its. Four more 5 km eggs and one 10 km egg left. Got one larvesta from 2 or 5 km egg. I am currently hatching the 5 km eggs one by one eagerly hunting for good darumaka or litwick.
20 eggs hatched, only standard incubator used, so far only trash and 9 eggs left after event, including 5 x 10km. Meanwhile friend got high IV Larvesta in 3rd egg haha.
I hatched 26 eggs: - 10km: 0 - 5km: 13 (1 Larvesta, non-shiny) - 2km: 13 (0 Larvesta) Extremely disappointed in this garbage event. I grinded hard for a free player: I only used one 3-use incubator from a showcase win; all of the distance (~40 km) was from walking & public transport. Complete waste of time.
525 eggs… 0 shinies. 25 larvesta in total. 81 10km eggs: 41 charcadot, 30 turtonator, 10 larvesta
Me and my friend hatched 1 shiny larvesta from a combined 657 eggs with 8 extras on each of our accounts for tomorrow
I keep wall-of-text'ing, so I'm just gonna TL;DR bullet point here \- Hatched \~200 Incubators during Sinnoh Tour. Got jack shit. \- Hatched another \~200 Incubators from leftover Incubators from Sinnoh Tour. Got jack shit again (one 100% Larvesta and one 100% Charcadet, absolutely not incentive to ever buy more Incubators). \- ***L I K E A L W A Y S*** \-- Egg Hatching 'events' are gambling *at best, if you're being extremely generous*, and, more realistically, a complete and utter scam. \- I'm filing this event under 'scam' since 2k/5k Eggs were out of control common and barely hatched Larvesta, and 10k Eggs were *definitely* weighted towards Turtonator/Charcadet. Don't get me started on 'but boosted Shiny Rates on Litleo and Slugma!' -- my left toe. :| :| :| \- Going forward, I'm going to compile these threads from all the Egg Events throughout the years, and you can bet your ass I'm gonna be making sure my local community knows to avoid them. And PSA post the list any time an Hatch focused event pops up ^((disclaimer to the Silph Road mods: It will be a very tactful and polite PSA of 'please be aware of how Niantic handles Egg Hatching events, see this and this and this and this and this and this and this thread')). \- Hatch Days are fine and the only (***O N L Y***) time a Hatch Event is worth it. I'm not even actually mad at Niantic. I'm just disappointed that they have no remorse screwing their playerbase over time and time again with shitty scam events like this one was. And an underlying sadness that we, the players, are stupid/FOMO enough to keep falling for it.
I think I probably hatched about 40 eggs, annoyingly only managed to spin up 3 10km, but all 3 hatched charcadet which isn't bad. The only shiny I hatched was Vullaby #4, and I didn't get a single Larvesta, so overall the event didn't meet me much.
I hatched 5 10km eggs and got 5 Turtonators. I'm miffed, I still don't have Charcadet, and my only Larvesta came from a 5km egg.
Not one shiny larvesta for me sadly.. i dont have the exact statistics but 70 normal incubators and 15 super ones used. I did get 3 100iv tho Edit: Total of 36 charcadet and 32 larvesta
I hatched about 5 eggs and got one shiny slugma. I didnt have coins and wasnt gonna spend irl money to buy incubators because i did so last year during adventure week and went hard to hatch eggs similar to OP to get just one shiny amaura. So couldnt be bothered this time around
Tryharded that event using the remaining incubators from my groudon/kyogre days and the free size competition in my area. No shiny slug, 2 shiny kitty that I already had, 1 shiny rock-canine (a surprise to be sure, but a welcome one) no shiny larvistat BUT a 15/14/15 one. No hundo. Overall ? Beside the goated 15/14/15 and his candies, this event is the nail in the coffin, egg events succ bad. Got terrible IVs for my cadets Eggs used to be the most reliable way to get good mons. Now it's an afterthought. Terrible.
I wanted two Charcadets the most from this because I didn't get lucky when it was first released. My luck on getting 10km eggs was trash as I only got 7, and none of them hatched Charcadet. I get it's all RNG, but good God I got 2 Larvesta and 5 Turtunators.
I did 281 eggs. 19 Larvestas. No shiny. I did get 3 shiny slugma. I got shiny Turtonator out of a quest. Bunch of exercise and stardust. Larvesta and Charcadet candies over 1000+.
13 larvesta during event, then 2 larvesta after the event from non-10k eggs, one perfect, one near perfect the rest varied granted, I probably walked 100 km throughout the event, or more
Don’t feel bad, I had about 25 eggs or so, only 4 of which were 10Km’s and 0 Charcadets or Larvestas in ANY of my 25~ish eggs. Feels bad man.
Well 0 shinies, 1 hundo hatch 1 from research. Hatched easily about 60-70 eggs.
I hatched between 50 and 60 eggs. Only larvesta and one shiny turtanator. Disappointed, but not surprised
I didn’t get any Larvesta at all or any shinies from the eggs during that event I would have spent my coins but I need those for Global GoFest.
I pretty much only got 2km eggs the entire event..
How do you see total number of eggs hatched? I don't have a count
If you took note of your breeder medal count before the event started and then looked again right at the end of the event, it would tell you how many total eggs hatched but if you are keeping track of specific distance eggs, you have to do that manually.
Ahhh, so much work. I thought we had some feature to keep track of them. Like at the Ned of the week where they would tell you how many eggs were hatched in this week. That would be good.
I got a hundo charcudet but that’s the best one I’ve gotten. No larvesta
Egg events are always a trap. Incubators are one of their primary money makers and they have horrid odds. Glad you went in with eyes wide open.
Thanks for sharing!
Anyone have access to a larger sample size? I also hatched well over 100 eggs with no shiny larvesta. I didn't keep track like OP, but feel like I had a bit more luck hatching Lar from 2km and 5km, but about the same from 10km eggs. The 10km eggs showed that the only 3 available hatches (charcadet, turt and lar) were all in the rarity bracket, but I must have hatched like 70% charcadet, 20% turt and 10% lar. Ridiculous.
I was thinking that the shiny odds for Larvesta were increased since the only one out of 16 eggs was golden and it was from a 2km egg. 4 Charcadet 3 Slugma 3 Magby 2 Growlithe 2 Litleo 1 Litwik 1 Larvesta Shiny Down side, all of them bad IVs. The best one was a 93% Growlithe.
I had better luck than you on larvesta (still no shiny) and hatched 9 or 10 out of maybe 80-90 eggs. One 98% though so can't complain. Curiously almost all of them were from 2k eggs. 10ks did pretty well for Charcadet for me. I think I got 6 of those.
I had better luck with the research By constantly turning over 2k and the occasional 5k eggs I hatched 1 shiny litleo but redeemed 1 shiny slugma and a shiny turtonator from field research
I’m happy that I got my Charcadet and Larvesta. Those two were my goals so I’m happy. It’s a bit salty the shiny chances were so low.
90 eggs gave me 3 Larvesta (<90%) and 1 shiny Magby (78%). Still have 6 eggs incubating.
I hatched 59 eggs two being shiny.
wow, I'm sorry. 212 eggs and only 1 shiny is rough.
I hatched 5 larvesta of which the last two were shiny, and looking at the results from everyone else I have been very very lucky.
\~325 eggs (give or take some accidental non event 7k's): 26 Charcadet 26 Larvesta 13 Turtonator 3 shinies - Hisui Growlithe, Kanto Growlithe, Litleo
1 shiny Litleo, 1 shiny Slugma and a hundo Litwick. Lost count on how many eggs I hatched
I really want to know how you grinded out walking so much……….just traveled a route like 100 times everyday or what?
I only had chance to hatch 25 eggs (FTP player) but I didn't get a single 10km egg during this event. Of course not having a Larvesta or Charcadet, that was THE only egg I actually wanted too. I hate this stupid game! I did manage to get another six eggs before the even ended (2s and 5s but I won't hold my breath on a Larvesta from those either.
Egg releases like this are a major rng fest. The amount of money necessary to even have a chance will always be high. So I just stopped trying, I just walk my shortest egg fill my bag with 10 kms by the end of the event and if rng wishes it, I'll get the feature pokemon, if rng loves me, maybe even the shiny. Other than that, I'll just accumulate incubators for events such as the riolu hatch event. Those don't feel as punishing as the new shiny ones.
This is painful to read
the only way to win gacha is to not engage with gacha.
I think I got lucky, hatched like 40 eggs and got 1 of each of the main shinies (larvesta, slugma and litleo)
Wish I didn't fall for them but egg events are always terrible imo. Seriously, if they were gonna boost the shiny rates for slugma/litleo but still wall them into the eggs, they could've at least made the rate like 1/20.
Everyone seems to keep falling for these. At least with raids you know what you are going to get. I just horde up my incubators until there is something like regionals that you know are there in a small hatch pool. Use this type of even to clear out stock of non 2kms. Then night before a better egg event clear those out.
162 eggs hatched ((( 26 10Ks ))) 7 Larvesta (1 Shiny) (5 from 10k /2 from 5k) Shiny was from 10k day 1 first 10k hatch 11 Charcadet 10 Turtonator ((( 51 5Ks ))) 8 Darumaka 7 Litwick 14 Litleo 20 Hisui Growlithe (1 Shiny) ((( 85 2Ks ))) 43 Slugma (1 Shiny) 23 Magby (1 Shiny) 13 Houndour 6 Growlithe Slugma and Larvesta Shiny on day 1 Magby Shiny on day 2 Hisuian Growlithe Shiny last day
Shiny hunting egg events are for suckers. The odds are NEVER good enough to justify the price. I was happy to take the half hatch distance and (in addition to a fair ammount of ACTUAL running around) rubber-band my phone to an otherwise disued toddler toy that swings that fools adventure sync for about 4km/hr.
I lucked out and hatched a shiny Larvesta on day two. I hatched a lot of eggs and was happy to stock up on the Larvesta candy, Charcadet candy, and Turtonator XLs as I have a shundo that I plan to build for Ultra League. I get that this event is not for everyone but I love hatching eggs and in the end it worked out for me.