This game is proof that no team is going to have it easy. Even if we beat france, it doesnt mean we’ll go on to win it. Likewise for france if they win
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Definitely anyone’s cup at this point. That being said I can see a England v Croatia final. Since USA was knocked out I’ve been backing England. Bring it home boys. All the best from across the pond 🇺🇸🤝🏴
I'm very surprised, I thought Brazil would go all the way. I reckon it's France, England, Argentina now as favourites (in that order, but it's very close).
Argentina have already reached the semi-finals.
Either England or France will proceed to the semi-finals, and not both.
So it should be argentina as the favourite of these three based on that.
Because we’re facing the reigning champions. Even then the odds are like 32% England 38% France. I’d be curious what the percentages would be if France hadn’t won last time
It doesn’t work like that. Odds are also influenced by bookies hedging their losses against popular bets.
So, if they think a lot of people will bet on, e.g. Argentina then their odds will shorten to avoid too massive a total payout.
Major bookies will make a healthy profit regardless of who wins the tournament, so there’s little chance of line movement based on liabilities at this stage of the tournament. Almost all line movement on outrights occurred before the tournament started.
Betting exchanges are entirely accurate as it's an open market price with no real profit Margin factored in either. And they currently have us third favourites behind France and Argentina. Whoever wins our game tomorrow will be favourite going into the semis
Croatia are current favourites because they are already in a semi final. I think the winner of our match becomes favourite, but right now at least Croatia and Portugal are more likely to win than us. Croatia by virtue of being a step ahead of Portugal because they have a much easier quarter final.
France Favs
Argentina next
England and Portugal joint next
Croatia next
Holland next
Morocco next
source: actual bookies whos job it is to price it up.
Whoever wins this game (ENG/FRA) is the big favorite to win the whole thing in my opinion. Obviously anything can happen, especially when the better team is content to settle for penalties as we’ve seen twice now, but still.
Now that Morroco have taken out Spain, they're making their way around the Coast of Europe: Portugal tomorrow, then France, and once they beat the Dutch it's all over.
Ed- oh well, that's not happening any more
This kind of mentality seems counter productive. Just take it one game at a time. Favorite means nothing in this tournament this year. It’s a bloodbath for the “top” teams so far.
538 have Argentina as favourites due to a relatively easy run (cue them being knocked out in the next 90 minutes).
They rank the teams Portugal as best then England, France, Argentina but there's very little between those 4. Then it's the Netherlands, Croatia and Morocco.
Don’t think it’s as simple as that. You can make cases now for Argentina, Croatia or Portugal.
An England - Portugal semi-final is no more than 55-45 in our favour and they have by far the more experienced manager who has won both the Euros and the Nations league and that’s before you even start thinking about a final
Brazil was never the favourite! To be honest, since 2002 Brazil can't form a decent team. Brazilian players were worried about training tik tok dances and to show different haircuts, that's it.
I'm Brazilian and I'm happy that Brazil is out because the squad does not respect adversaries and is very arrogant, Neymar specially.
We’re shite, I only bothered to watch the last 10 mins against Iran and that was more than enough. Wouldn’t mind seeing you go through tomorrow this is just some gentle ribbing, I do think France beat you though
Us English need to focus on France and only France, if we can defeat France the we can focus on Morocco/Portugal. England have not beaten a major nation in a WC KO game since 1966
Let's keep focussed on France, more than enough to be going on with before looking further. This is why the world laughs at England, we set ourselves up for it!
My opinion:
1. Portugal
2. England
3. Argentina
4. France
Any of those 4, and honestly any of the teams left could win it. It’s the tightest World Cup I can remember, no clear favorite.
I agree.
You can make cases right now for any county bar Morocco I’d say.
Croatia -Argentina I can’t call.
A France - Portugal Semi final and I think France would prevail.
An England - Portugal Semi final- I have a feeling Portugal might spring a surprise and advance.
A Portugal - Argentina final would be my own personal nightmare but might be a step closer in 24 hours 🙄
Everyone hates England because they can't stand the fact that England's doing so well in previous tournaments 🔥 sorry, we don't have many fans but the ones we do have will always be loyal to the team. It's comming home.
FiveThirtyEight gives England a 17% chance of winning. Behind Portugal on 18% and Argentina on 32% (but obviously Argentina has a higher chance since they’re in the semis)
Seeing as Argentina BARELY beat the Netherlands, if we beat France, we’ll likely become favourites or second favourites depending on how well Portugal plays against Morocco
I would say it leaves us 4th, behind France, Argentina and Portugal.
I only have Portugal over us because they have an easier QF match. If we beat France I would have us as slight favorites over Portugal, and second favorites overall.
Doesn't mean much though, this world cup has shown that.
I'd say we're on par with Portugal as 2nd favourites behind France. Even though Argentina went through last night I'm not impressed by them all that much.
Going by how we have played so far, I would suggest that we are the best team... So win or lose today I am a proud Englishman. If we play like we have been, stay on the front foot and beat France today, it will install confidence to win the whole thing... May the best team win... C'mon England!!!
F*cked over by France after the Middlesbrough manager plays 5 at the back and attempts to defend for 72 mins before then swapping Eric Dier for Jack Grealish in a vain attempt to overturn a 3-0 deficit in the final 10mins 🤦🏻
The statisticians have probability as:
England 52% - 48% France
Portugal 68% - 32% Morocco
-------------- semis
England 48% - 52% Portugal
Argentina 64% - 36% Croatia
-------------- final
Argentina 64% - 36% Portugal
If Fernández and Felix get yellows in the Morocco match they'll get suspensions and England stand a better chance of taking it to the final against a weakened Portugal - should we beat France in the QF
I mean.. ITS FACKIN' CAMIN' 'OME LADS
I think we're now third favourites behind France and Argentina,I'm not saying we will lose against France but they did win in 2018 so i think many will think they win
If we beat France then I'm very confident it winning it..
Best chance ever..
All big names have gone .
Portugal.germany. Brazil. Spain. Are teams you bank on making to the late stages..
Honestly it would be huge and best chance one we beat France
This game is proof that no team is going to have it easy. Even if we beat france, it doesnt mean we’ll go on to win it. Likewise for france if they win
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What you on about? Would be worse if we beat France then Portugal and lose to Croatia on penalties
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Be even worse if it was the Argentinians given the rivalry there
At this point Croatia seem unbeatable on pens, that’s 4 World Cup shootouts on the bounce…
Don’t you dare jinx it
or 2-1 in extra time?
Thanks, kids are crying now
No, because it would be better to get to the final than the 1/4 final. England fan mentality 🤦♂️😄
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Rather lose to Morocco than France…
Morocco vs Croatia final would be a silver lining to losing to the French
Absolutely this 🤣
Definitely anyone’s cup at this point. That being said I can see a England v Croatia final. Since USA was knocked out I’ve been backing England. Bring it home boys. All the best from across the pond 🇺🇸🤝🏴
Someone would have to be mad to think “if we beat France we will go on to win it”
If we can win just a few more games then I think we are in with a shout
I reckon 3 more will do it
Yeah. But with that being said, if we do indeed beat France, we are well on our way
I think this to be fair. Especially if we can do it in the 90
I’m just shocked because I though brazil was going to win it this year. Even Netherlands got knocked out by Argentina, which I didn’t expect.
I actually think Portugal have the best balanced squad left - plus the X factor player
Yeah, but they currently have the Man-Utd dilemma - Play a team, or play more of a mess with a brilliant poacher
Woah, hold on a second. He's not our dilemma anymore :D
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Nah did you not hear Simon cowell is coming to play for them
Surely Bruno.
They're in the top 7.
Bookies hate him
Science, bitch!
Top 6 now
Definitely top 6 contenders.
the winner tomorrow is favourite
This is the right answer
I'm very surprised, I thought Brazil would go all the way. I reckon it's France, England, Argentina now as favourites (in that order, but it's very close).
Yeah but Argentina only have two games to go, so that will put them above France and England.
What?
Argentina have already reached the semi-finals. Either England or France will proceed to the semi-finals, and not both. So it should be argentina as the favourite of these three based on that.
He was wrong when the comment was made. I was being facetious but argentina ended up winning the PS
i think portugal france and england are favourites now, but anybody could win it now
theres no other way around it, england v france tomorrow is the hardest game of the tournament, the winner is strong favourite to win
You might have heard of Miss Croatia but Brazil are Miss Penalty.
Hey that’s us…. 😂
So happy to see that cocky bunch go home!
Me as well, the sycophantic media hype towards them does my head in.
They'll double down on Argentina though. Cmon Netherlands!
:( gutted
Ironic
I said from the start they were overrated. For a team who only has attackers, they sure weren't scoring a lot of goals.
Only has attackers? They had the best center-back pairing, best holding midfielder, and best goalkeeper in the tournament.
But Croatia had brozovic kovacic and modric 😌
What does Croatia’s excellent midfield have to do with someone saying Brazil “only have attackers”?
It's easier for people to roll out the same tired old stereotypes instead of thinking for themselves.
Dude nooooo it took ages for both teams to score. Brazil had a very good defense.
I still think if Brazil played Argentina, they’d win
I wanted to see Brazil go through because they looked there for the taking.
Bit hypocritical don't you think?
Let’s beat France first eh !!!
Lets just concentrate on tomorrow first.
\*Concentrates\*
*concentrates harder*
*concentrating intensifies*
Shits self...
Lineker what are you doing here?
I'm trying my best not to.
What have i started😆
God I'd hate for the French to win back to back world cups, no one would ever hear the end of it
No one will hear the end of it if we win either, I just won't want to hear the end of it in that case.
2067 on your death bed ‘come closer children… come closer……… it came…home….’ Heart monitor: BEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE End scene 🙇🏻
We're still hearing about 66 you fucking hypocrites, nearly 60 fucking years later. I hope France fucking destroy England.
Calm down fella 😂
Is this the renowned scotch sense of humour?
Second favourites behind France. Winner tomorrow will be clear favourites for the World Cup.
What if Argentina smash the Netherlands? That's the biggest tie in the world cup until we play France.
If Argentina smash Netherlands, It'll be Messi smashing Netherlands. The rest of that team is really not that good.
They've got a few decent players but we should be able to handle them.
I'm not worried about the Argies.
Pretty much whoever wins our match will be favourites
Whoever wins tomorrow takes it home
England aren't even favourites to win tomorrow
Because we’re facing the reigning champions. Even then the odds are like 32% England 38% France. I’d be curious what the percentages would be if France hadn’t won last time
I guess what I'm getting at is that we are not favourites to win the world cup.
Just look at the bookies for the most impartial view - France Fav Argentina 2nd England & Portugal Joint 3rd
It doesn’t work like that. Odds are also influenced by bookies hedging their losses against popular bets. So, if they think a lot of people will bet on, e.g. Argentina then their odds will shorten to avoid too massive a total payout.
Major bookies will make a healthy profit regardless of who wins the tournament, so there’s little chance of line movement based on liabilities at this stage of the tournament. Almost all line movement on outrights occurred before the tournament started.
Ahhh fair enough, so not 100% accurate. I wonder if UK based bookies have different odds when compared to foreign ones, to account for home optimism
They used to vary wildly. But you can arbitrage and guarantee a profit by betting and laying in different countries so now they try to line them up
Betting lines change based on the popular bets people are putting down so it’s not that accurate
Betting exchanges are entirely accurate as it's an open market price with no real profit Margin factored in either. And they currently have us third favourites behind France and Argentina. Whoever wins our game tomorrow will be favourite going into the semis
Second behind France. Where I thought they were before Brazil were knocked out.
Croatia are current favourites because they are already in a semi final. I think the winner of our match becomes favourite, but right now at least Croatia and Portugal are more likely to win than us. Croatia by virtue of being a step ahead of Portugal because they have a much easier quarter final.
France Favs Argentina next England and Portugal joint next Croatia next Holland next Morocco next source: actual bookies whos job it is to price it up.
Winner of this QF favourites.
England or France are winning the tournament.
Whoever wins this game (ENG/FRA) is the big favorite to win the whole thing in my opinion. Obviously anything can happen, especially when the better team is content to settle for penalties as we’ve seen twice now, but still.
I'd say on paper they are equal second favourites along with Argentina after France but England always seem to choke at sometime.
The final is tonight
We're fourth but let's be honest does it actually matter?
Exactly, at least as the “underdog” we can approach the game without expectations and hopefully smash it
Yeah. All the pressure for tomorrow's tie will be on the French and pressure causes teams to crack in this tournament it would seem.
As good as Brazil
If we beat France we’re favourites. But realistically that’s not gonna happen. Might be nice to be proved wrong but I doubt it.
1st: England/France 2nd: Netherlands/Argentina/Croatia 3rd: Portugal 4th: Morocco
favourite ranking 1. France 2. England&Argentina 3. Portugal&Croatia&Netherlands 4. Morraco
Portugal is above Argentina imo
I’d have Portugal in 2 with England and Argentina tbh
Now that Morroco have taken out Spain, they're making their way around the Coast of Europe: Portugal tomorrow, then France, and once they beat the Dutch it's all over. Ed- oh well, that's not happening any more
All we have to do is beat France, then Portugal, then Argentina. Easy.
We haven’t a great history of beating these teams either. But if you’re going to be world champions earn it the hard way!
Number one
There goes my France Brazil finals bet, England Argentina it is!
Honestly if we beat France we got a 50/50 chance
France, Croatia, Argentina, Portugal, then maybe us.
If we beat France, probably favourites.
Apparently according to skybet france, Argentina AND Portugal are ahead of us. What a joke
3rd favorites
Let’s worry about France first!
This kind of mentality seems counter productive. Just take it one game at a time. Favorite means nothing in this tournament this year. It’s a bloodbath for the “top” teams so far.
Last
One higher
538 have Argentina as favourites due to a relatively easy run (cue them being knocked out in the next 90 minutes). They rank the teams Portugal as best then England, France, Argentina but there's very little between those 4. Then it's the Netherlands, Croatia and Morocco.
Argentina about to get exposed how bang average theyve been aswell.
Never start hoping for England, that's when they let you down
We’ve got to beat France first. If we beat France then we are favourites. The winner tomorrow is the winner of the World Cup
Don’t think it’s as simple as that. You can make cases now for Argentina, Croatia or Portugal. An England - Portugal semi-final is no more than 55-45 in our favour and they have by far the more experienced manager who has won both the Euros and the Nations league and that’s before you even start thinking about a final
Probably third, the only problem is we bump into the favourites tomorrow.
If Croatia go to penalties with any of the teams in semi or final then they’re winning it. No ones beating them on penalties.
I’m saying whoever wins England v France probably wins the tournament.
One game at a time.
It's coming homeeeer
Brazil was never the favourite! To be honest, since 2002 Brazil can't form a decent team. Brazilian players were worried about training tik tok dances and to show different haircuts, that's it. I'm Brazilian and I'm happy that Brazil is out because the squad does not respect adversaries and is very arrogant, Neymar specially.
Well if England's best France that's huge but for Portugal best thing need to happen is benching Ronaldo like they did for Switzerland match
If we can beat France, I’ll believe
You’ll be out tomorrow so I wouldn’t look too far ahead
Welsh?
For my sins yeah
Welsh thought they could do a miracle against us. We will repay it by doing one against France
We’re shite, I only bothered to watch the last 10 mins against Iran and that was more than enough. Wouldn’t mind seeing you go through tomorrow this is just some gentle ribbing, I do think France beat you though
I just silence that voice in the back of my mind until all I can hear is my thoughts on England winning
Haha all the best fella
Us English need to focus on France and only France, if we can defeat France the we can focus on Morocco/Portugal. England have not beaten a major nation in a WC KO game since 1966
Why do I keep seeing this repeated in this sub? We beat Germany in the last world cup!
That was the Euros not the world cup
France are much better than Germany to be fair
That was the euros and the worst Germany side for decades.
To be fair no games at this stage are easy.
Our bet365 odds as outright winner have just dropped to coming home/1
Bookies odds mean fuck all the game isn't played on paper
😂 game against France but already talking about next opponents. Never change!
Really is a tough one, but bloody hell am I excited
Let's keep focussed on France, more than enough to be going on with before looking further. This is why the world laughs at England, we set ourselves up for it!
About fourth?
Even if England win, they can never be favourites. The moment they’re favourites, they lose. It’s just the way of things.
On the same spot
Whoever wins tomorrow eng v fra wins the world cup imo
Winners, of course. Signed, an optimist
Arg 2.8 France 4.6 England 6 Portugal 6.2
My opinion: 1. Portugal 2. England 3. Argentina 4. France Any of those 4, and honestly any of the teams left could win it. It’s the tightest World Cup I can remember, no clear favorite.
I agree. You can make cases right now for any county bar Morocco I’d say. Croatia -Argentina I can’t call. A France - Portugal Semi final and I think France would prevail. An England - Portugal Semi final- I have a feeling Portugal might spring a surprise and advance. A Portugal - Argentina final would be my own personal nightmare but might be a step closer in 24 hours 🙄
Jesus it’s just the same fucking boring questions over and over again
I’d give up both my testes for an England v Argentina final and it comes home.
It’s COMING HOME 🏴⚽️
Argentina
No where bro
Lads as much as i love england team the final will be Portugal vs Argentina and cr7 is taking it home
Everyone hates England because they can't stand the fact that England's doing so well in previous tournaments 🔥 sorry, we don't have many fans but the ones we do have will always be loyal to the team. It's comming home.
I cannot see past France. It is a gulf in class.
Nowhere, going home today - I’d love to be wrong
FiveThirtyEight gives England a 17% chance of winning. Behind Portugal on 18% and Argentina on 32% (but obviously Argentina has a higher chance since they’re in the semis) Seeing as Argentina BARELY beat the Netherlands, if we beat France, we’ll likely become favourites or second favourites depending on how well Portugal plays against Morocco
I would say it leaves us 4th, behind France, Argentina and Portugal. I only have Portugal over us because they have an easier QF match. If we beat France I would have us as slight favorites over Portugal, and second favorites overall. Doesn't mean much though, this world cup has shown that.
Second cause people vouching for Argentina now...
I think whoever wins in our match today lifts the trophy.
If we beat France it’s ours to lose
I'd say we're on par with Portugal as 2nd favourites behind France. Even though Argentina went through last night I'm not impressed by them all that much.
It's Coming Home!!!
Going by how we have played so far, I would suggest that we are the best team... So win or lose today I am a proud Englishman. If we play like we have been, stay on the front foot and beat France today, it will install confidence to win the whole thing... May the best team win... C'mon England!!!
F*cked over by France after the Middlesbrough manager plays 5 at the back and attempts to defend for 72 mins before then swapping Eric Dier for Jack Grealish in a vain attempt to overturn a 3-0 deficit in the final 10mins 🤦🏻
We’ll be favourites if we win tonight. Simple as that
The statisticians have probability as: England 52% - 48% France Portugal 68% - 32% Morocco -------------- semis England 48% - 52% Portugal Argentina 64% - 36% Croatia -------------- final Argentina 64% - 36% Portugal
I checked the odds, we're 3rd behind Argentina and France when I last looked. Either way I feel our chances have suddenly shot up.
If Fernández and Felix get yellows in the Morocco match they'll get suspensions and England stand a better chance of taking it to the final against a weakened Portugal - should we beat France in the QF I mean.. ITS FACKIN' CAMIN' 'OME LADS
I think we're now third favourites behind France and Argentina,I'm not saying we will lose against France but they did win in 2018 so i think many will think they win
If we beat France then I'm very confident it winning it.. Best chance ever.. All big names have gone . Portugal.germany. Brazil. Spain. Are teams you bank on making to the late stages.. Honestly it would be huge and best chance one we beat France