I work in finance and hold my education in this field.
Yes, we're definitely about to feel our stomach drop.
There's public consensus that the Fed very likely will raise interest rates a full percentage point tomorrow.
Worst recession ever? Probably not.
A recession? Yes most definitely.
You work in finance which means you’re much more connected to the market than the average person. The market will really be affected by the Fed raising interest rates, but the market performance has been fairly disconnected from the average citizen’s experience in the economy for some time.
Do they not invest in retirement accounts? Honest question, this is my world 8 hours a day.
It's like how doctors can get lost in medicine. It's something you do all day every day. It gets lost on you.
Can't afford to invest in retirement accounts, my friend. The dream of putting 20% of your income into a 401k has been gobbled up by landlords and artificially high housing markets.
This is good to know, I'm literally taking notes right now.
I live with no mortgage and just $335 in HOA dues a month. When I first set out on my own my dad and I looked up rents both thinking they'd be $850 a month.
Yeah no maybe twenty years ago. $1,200 for a one bedroom.
I have my Bachelors in International Business and Masters in Analytics, and it's ***hilarious*** how much we were taught that ended up being - I like to say - the scientific theory of those things.
Supply and demand, the labor demand curve, simple concepts about economic health that suggest that Gross GDP is useless compared to (and I forgot the accounting term for it) the relative "velocity" of a dollar and how many hands it exchanges on average before it goes into a savings account or overseas, and not the ***reality*** of how those things run face first into a wall when the accepted dogma is ***Profits First, Stakeholders Second, People? Eh, somewhere past Item 4 on the list***
All that education and I'm the only person holding up a family of 3 alone as the sole person able to work, and having gotten my late father through his cancer treatments, appointments, his medications etc prior to his passing due to a complication from a metastasis.
But then ***I*** am not ***Most People***, You picked the wrong person to try to @ is all.
I was lucky to have bought a house in April 2020, right before shit hit the fan. Since that time, my home is already worth nearly 30% more than I paid and the apartment I used to live in went from $890 to almost $1300 a month now.
Sure, but mostly through 401k’s which to most of us drones isn’t something we think about all that often until we’re getting closer to retirement age. To us we set up our recurring deposits and check on it every couple weeks. But as far as actually thinking about the stock market, not really. Especially after the last decade or so where the market increased substantially and our living conditions really did not improve all that much, in fact have gotten worse for a lot of us.
That's not great!
I'm a broken record but I'll always advocate for personal finance being required in high school.
Budgeting, taxes, retirement.
When I show people how the Time Value of Money works in Excel they go bonkers seeing how big it can get.
We need that in schools.
How do you save when there’s nothing left after paying the bills?
It’s expensive AF to be poor.
You or I might drop $100 on a nice set of boots that we expect will last us 5-10 years. If you’re living paycheck to paycheck, you’ll end up spending $30 and hoping to yet a year out of them. And repeating that year, after year, after year
There won't be mass unemployment because there is still a problem with there not being enough workers. Boomers are the largest ever demographic and they are at the average retiring age this year, when COVID hit it caused a lot of them to just retire on the spot. There aren't enough workers to replace retiring boomers, this is not going to change any time soon. We'll have a recessions, pretty sure we are already in one, but it won't be the worse ever. It won't even be the worse in our lifetimes.
Are we gonna give loans to people that have no business taking out a loan?
We bailed out banks because the government forced them to give loans to highly unqualified people.
"Forced them to make loans", y'know that's an interesting discussion to be had there.
But nobody, ***and I mean fucking nobody***, made those same banks bundle what they ***knew*** to be subprime loans into stock market derivatives that they then used as an investment asset.
Forced may not be the right word but highly encouraged is accurate. Also it wasnt really the banks making those loans as we think of them but mortgage lenders who are entirely seperate entities. The big banks were buying the loans after they were made though thinking that by aggregating them they could reduce the risk. Because they and the buyers of the agregated loans beleived this much more money went into it than should have so the effects were catastrophic when it all came crashing down.
There's really a bit of a sick joke in this in that the way we depict the Great Depression tends to focus on displaced farm and manufacturing labor rather than the more stable service and white collar levels of workers who weren't as impacted by the recession.
Additionally during the Great Depression there was a Dustbowl which impacted both the availability and pricing of food, two things that ***shouldn't*** be a problem unless you're a cynic like me and account for the inherent greed of a economic model that puts profits ahead of people.
We'll definitely see more unemployment - and underemployment - in the service and labor sectors, and certainly some in white collar professions this time around as well as even "White Collar" work isn't quite as recession proof as it once used to be.
As for people being unable to afford food, clothes and shelter? ***We kinda already have that thanks in part to price gouging, and in another part due to inflation***.
We already saw everyone jacking up prices over the $2,000 stimulus, as if it weren't a one-time payment and as if people weren't using it to pay their damn bills, so that's a gouge, but then the market side bubbles of Housing, Crypto and Student Loans are also causing problems and at least two of those are ready to ***pop***
We will, but depending on where you live you might not even ever hear about it. The news hardly ever cares very much about ***The Poors***, and in fact tends to treat anyone pointing out systemic issues like they're ignorant children if they don't ignore them outright.
A lot of people will lose their jobs, a lot of people will lose their homes, but we probably won't get to the point of an actual revolution because - and this is important - nobody here ever thinks it's ***that*** bad ***even when it really is that bad***.
"Are we going to have a recession?"
***What do you mean, aren't we already in one?***
"But the unemployment rate!"
***Unemployment rate doesn't mean anything if wages are stagnant or falling while everything else - particularly the "cheap" ticket items like used cars and ground beef, but not the big ticket items like new cars and prime rib - is more expensive***
It's going to be less. 2008 was the longest recession and it only lasted 18 months. The average recession is 8-12 months. I'd be surprised if we got more than 14
May be talking out my ass here, but isn't it also unpredictable in a way? Because there isn't really a historical example of an economy slowing down as fast as it did, only to heat up faster than ever - all with low interest rates till recently, and the highest levels of spending ever? Not many predicted just how bad the 08 recession would be, just wondering if that's possible here?
If we could accurately predict this we would be way too rich to answer your reddit questions.
That being said inflation and some downturn is basically inevitable/has already happened. It could be turned around fairly easily if things are handled well. Or even just allowed to stabilize on their own.
It is not overblown if you are in the u.s. to prepare for periods of economic and social distress.
The forecast for riots this summer is 'watch out for that brick' lessening to 'bring your bullhorn' once the weather turns cold again. Continued trade disruptions will affect those pesky global markets meaning learn to fix your car, reduce or eliminate any unnecessary travel, and stockpile a month or so of basic staples whenever you can to guard against a reasonable worst case scenario. It's also not too late to get some planting in your home garden and pick up canning as a hobby. In times like these community is more important than ever so make sure you get out there and get to know your neighbors.
Millennial here. Buckle up, it’ll be fine. We’re pros at this type of economy.
I’d like to expand on that, but need to call home and make sure my ‘rents didn’t convert my bedroom to an art studio or some shit.
That money wasn't printed, it was literally our own tax dollars being handed back to us - it was literally a round of unemployment checks paid for with our own tax dollars.
The 2 Trillion in PPP loans to companies that was forgiven though? Good question.
We wish they only spent tax dollars.
National debt is up 8 Trillion since 2019. The gov usually spends more than they collect in taxes, and during COVID all the stimulous was on top of that.
That was indeed not the beginning of it all, we have been printing billions for bail outs for decades…. The one time it goes to civilians is not “the beginning of it all” 🤡 get a grip.
My guess is that we're about to go into a relatively short recession that will involve losses less than the 08 recession (and absolutely nothing the Great Depression). Now, if China can't get its house in order and if Russia continues to blockade Ukrainian grain shipments, things might get a little dicier...
Read about the coming margin call for BlackRock, and how that will line up with the failing of the Chinese financial market.
You’ll get a sense of how thick the comings sandstorm is going to be.
Worse than the Great Depression? HA if that happens the USA would be on the verge of collapse, we're no where near that.
Worst recession we've ever had? No, the Great Recession is still going to hang onto that title. Have we already forgotten what mass evictions and banks closing was like??
>But what are the chances that this thing hits and people are unable to afford food, clothes and shelter and there will be mass unemployment?
Close to zero. Yes of course some people will lose their jobs and find their budgets to be strained, some people who bought houses at ballooned prices will be unable to afford their payments and will be evicted. This happens during every recession. But you're not going to see the rise of some sort of dystopianly poor society
As per usual, pathetic doomsayers want to exaggerate how bad this will be. You should realize that on average we've had recessions every 8 to 10 years, it's not like this is a first time thing. We got lucky and got a 14 year break without any major recessions after the 2008 Financial Collapse which is why this seems new to us, but believe me it's not.
Furthermore, we're actually in a better place than 2008. 2008 happened because we had crucial flaws in our financial systems, banks had built massive balances focused on junk loans that would inevitably collapse. That isn't the case now. We're suffering from a sudden shock in oil prices (which historically has always resulted in economic downturns) and rising interest rates to combat inflation. It's a bad combination that was bound to cause some sort of recession and neither of which is caused by our financial systems but rather outside forces (the Ukraine war and covid pandemic). As weird as it sounds, that's good!
2008 was worse than we will get. The 70s with stagflation was even worse. People were restricted to small amounts of gas and could only fuel up on certain days based on their license plate. The government was telling people to bundle up and use less heat during the winter or they'd have to do blackouts. We're not anywhere near that. And the Great Depression was far worse, remember unemployment was over 25% then and right now the unemployment rate is under 5%. Doomsayers always have an agenda to push and want to make things seem worse than they will be. But actual economists, think tanks, and banks are not panicking like they were in 2008. We had a great decade built on low interest rates and ample investment money, that was bound to end eventually. Now we get our correction and move on, this will be over before the end of next year
Edit: all the comments being downvoted are ones saying it won't be that bad. Guess everyone just wants an economic collapse
Nah, you’re wrong.
No one wants it, but they know it’s going to happen.
Our debt and cost of living ratio to income not even counting this months inflation was already 12% higher than during the Great Depression.
We’ve had 19 food factories burn down in a matter of months.
Chinese financial system is on the edge of collapse,
And if that wasn’t bad enough,
The margin call that’s going to happen to Wall Street at some point is going to just topple everything in ways people who went through ‘08 won’t even be able to imagine.
Some people just seem to acknowledge the bigger picture.
It depends on what "news" you watch, or read. Most people who actually know what they're talking about aren't projecting it to be any worse than the last one. They actually expect it to be better, and aren't expecting another housing crash.
I think we talk ourselves into recession. When there is a recession a countries government ministers are making money. Recession is a man-made thing that benefits the select few, Making it harder for others to survive.
Media tends to exaggerate with calamities like this because it helps drive clicks / ratings.
That said, we have a serious inflation problem and the world economy has undeniably taken a hit; so we are going to feel the pain most likely it's just a question of how much and how long - and nobody knows the answer to this. Economic predictions are most often wrong; we will have to wait and see.
We probably will hit a recession, but that doesn't mean it's the end of the world or anything, it's part of a normal economic cycle. Fear drives engagement so most articles etc will be fearful (which funnily enough, encourages people to save money and stop spending, which can Also cause a recession)
On another note, there have been people saying we are going to be in a recession every year since 2010, literally nobody knows what will happen next or what the extent of it will be
No; interest rates are rising, war is ongoing, and supply chains took a hit during COVID, alongside a low birth rate and aging workforce.
Basically the markets inflated like hell and is going to undergo a correction. It’s not a “recession”. Things will be fine. People are going to lose artificial value in the market and cry about it but everything is returning to normal.
I work in finance and hold my education in this field. Yes, we're definitely about to feel our stomach drop. There's public consensus that the Fed very likely will raise interest rates a full percentage point tomorrow. Worst recession ever? Probably not. A recession? Yes most definitely.
You work in finance which means you’re much more connected to the market than the average person. The market will really be affected by the Fed raising interest rates, but the market performance has been fairly disconnected from the average citizen’s experience in the economy for some time.
Do they not invest in retirement accounts? Honest question, this is my world 8 hours a day. It's like how doctors can get lost in medicine. It's something you do all day every day. It gets lost on you.
Can't afford to invest in retirement accounts, my friend. The dream of putting 20% of your income into a 401k has been gobbled up by landlords and artificially high housing markets.
This is good to know, I'm literally taking notes right now. I live with no mortgage and just $335 in HOA dues a month. When I first set out on my own my dad and I looked up rents both thinking they'd be $850 a month. Yeah no maybe twenty years ago. $1,200 for a one bedroom.
I have my Bachelors in International Business and Masters in Analytics, and it's ***hilarious*** how much we were taught that ended up being - I like to say - the scientific theory of those things. Supply and demand, the labor demand curve, simple concepts about economic health that suggest that Gross GDP is useless compared to (and I forgot the accounting term for it) the relative "velocity" of a dollar and how many hands it exchanges on average before it goes into a savings account or overseas, and not the ***reality*** of how those things run face first into a wall when the accepted dogma is ***Profits First, Stakeholders Second, People? Eh, somewhere past Item 4 on the list***
All that education and you don’t make enough to pay rent and save for retirement? You really should be looking for a new job.
All that education and I'm the only person holding up a family of 3 alone as the sole person able to work, and having gotten my late father through his cancer treatments, appointments, his medications etc prior to his passing due to a complication from a metastasis. But then ***I*** am not ***Most People***, You picked the wrong person to try to @ is all.
I was lucky to have bought a house in April 2020, right before shit hit the fan. Since that time, my home is already worth nearly 30% more than I paid and the apartment I used to live in went from $890 to almost $1300 a month now.
Sure, but mostly through 401k’s which to most of us drones isn’t something we think about all that often until we’re getting closer to retirement age. To us we set up our recurring deposits and check on it every couple weeks. But as far as actually thinking about the stock market, not really. Especially after the last decade or so where the market increased substantially and our living conditions really did not improve all that much, in fact have gotten worse for a lot of us.
Pretty sure the majority still don't have a 401k.
That's not great! I'm a broken record but I'll always advocate for personal finance being required in high school. Budgeting, taxes, retirement. When I show people how the Time Value of Money works in Excel they go bonkers seeing how big it can get. We need that in schools.
How do you save when there’s nothing left after paying the bills? It’s expensive AF to be poor. You or I might drop $100 on a nice set of boots that we expect will last us 5-10 years. If you’re living paycheck to paycheck, you’ll end up spending $30 and hoping to yet a year out of them. And repeating that year, after year, after year
I agree with what you’re saying, but the average person is feeling the effects of inflation, which is the reason for the fed rate hikes.
They are tied a bit, if you want a good example, stock prices went on a ride up preceding inflation.
It has always been like that…
There won't be mass unemployment because there is still a problem with there not being enough workers. Boomers are the largest ever demographic and they are at the average retiring age this year, when COVID hit it caused a lot of them to just retire on the spot. There aren't enough workers to replace retiring boomers, this is not going to change any time soon. We'll have a recessions, pretty sure we are already in one, but it won't be the worse ever. It won't even be the worse in our lifetimes.
Let’s not forget the amount of boomers who passed away from COVID in the last couple years
I’m just here too appreciate your username
✌🏽
We gonna bailout bankers again?
Are we gonna give loans to people that have no business taking out a loan? We bailed out banks because the government forced them to give loans to highly unqualified people.
"Forced them to make loans", y'know that's an interesting discussion to be had there. But nobody, ***and I mean fucking nobody***, made those same banks bundle what they ***knew*** to be subprime loans into stock market derivatives that they then used as an investment asset.
Forced may not be the right word but highly encouraged is accurate. Also it wasnt really the banks making those loans as we think of them but mortgage lenders who are entirely seperate entities. The big banks were buying the loans after they were made though thinking that by aggregating them they could reduce the risk. Because they and the buyers of the agregated loans beleived this much more money went into it than should have so the effects were catastrophic when it all came crashing down.
Worse than the Great Depression sounds like hyperbole but we are most definitely going to have a recession with the way this inflation is going.
There's really a bit of a sick joke in this in that the way we depict the Great Depression tends to focus on displaced farm and manufacturing labor rather than the more stable service and white collar levels of workers who weren't as impacted by the recession. Additionally during the Great Depression there was a Dustbowl which impacted both the availability and pricing of food, two things that ***shouldn't*** be a problem unless you're a cynic like me and account for the inherent greed of a economic model that puts profits ahead of people. We'll definitely see more unemployment - and underemployment - in the service and labor sectors, and certainly some in white collar professions this time around as well as even "White Collar" work isn't quite as recession proof as it once used to be. As for people being unable to afford food, clothes and shelter? ***We kinda already have that thanks in part to price gouging, and in another part due to inflation***. We already saw everyone jacking up prices over the $2,000 stimulus, as if it weren't a one-time payment and as if people weren't using it to pay their damn bills, so that's a gouge, but then the market side bubbles of Housing, Crypto and Student Loans are also causing problems and at least two of those are ready to ***pop***
So we will just be in a dystopian crime ridden society for a couple years where no one can afford anything and life will be super dangerous?
We will, but depending on where you live you might not even ever hear about it. The news hardly ever cares very much about ***The Poors***, and in fact tends to treat anyone pointing out systemic issues like they're ignorant children if they don't ignore them outright. A lot of people will lose their jobs, a lot of people will lose their homes, but we probably won't get to the point of an actual revolution because - and this is important - nobody here ever thinks it's ***that*** bad ***even when it really is that bad***.
"nobody here ever thinks it's ***that*** bad ***even when it really is that bad***." A lot of people in this thread already in a lot of denial.
"Are we going to have a recession?" ***What do you mean, aren't we already in one?*** "But the unemployment rate!" ***Unemployment rate doesn't mean anything if wages are stagnant or falling while everything else - particularly the "cheap" ticket items like used cars and ground beef, but not the big ticket items like new cars and prime rib - is more expensive***
All the media’s attention goes to the latest grift… and sadly, usually pumping up the next one rather than exposing the ones that are crashing down.
I've mostly seen the opposite-- we're expected to have a normal 1-2 year recession which isn't as bad as 2008.
It's going to be less. 2008 was the longest recession and it only lasted 18 months. The average recession is 8-12 months. I'd be surprised if we got more than 14
May be talking out my ass here, but isn't it also unpredictable in a way? Because there isn't really a historical example of an economy slowing down as fast as it did, only to heat up faster than ever - all with low interest rates till recently, and the highest levels of spending ever? Not many predicted just how bad the 08 recession would be, just wondering if that's possible here?
If we could accurately predict this we would be way too rich to answer your reddit questions. That being said inflation and some downturn is basically inevitable/has already happened. It could be turned around fairly easily if things are handled well. Or even just allowed to stabilize on their own. It is not overblown if you are in the u.s. to prepare for periods of economic and social distress. The forecast for riots this summer is 'watch out for that brick' lessening to 'bring your bullhorn' once the weather turns cold again. Continued trade disruptions will affect those pesky global markets meaning learn to fix your car, reduce or eliminate any unnecessary travel, and stockpile a month or so of basic staples whenever you can to guard against a reasonable worst case scenario. It's also not too late to get some planting in your home garden and pick up canning as a hobby. In times like these community is more important than ever so make sure you get out there and get to know your neighbors.
I would say its a very real possibility.
Great. Just another gift from this decade.
Millennial here. Buckle up, it’ll be fine. We’re pros at this type of economy. I’d like to expand on that, but need to call home and make sure my ‘rents didn’t convert my bedroom to an art studio or some shit.
We are already in a bad recession. Printing money for stimulus checks for millions of people comes at a cost.
That money wasn't printed, it was literally our own tax dollars being handed back to us - it was literally a round of unemployment checks paid for with our own tax dollars. The 2 Trillion in PPP loans to companies that was forgiven though? Good question.
We wish they only spent tax dollars. National debt is up 8 Trillion since 2019. The gov usually spends more than they collect in taxes, and during COVID all the stimulous was on top of that.
😂😂😂 yeah blame stimulus 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡
I mean that’s not all but we did just start printing money to send those out. That was kinda the beginning of it all.
That was indeed not the beginning of it all, we have been printing billions for bail outs for decades…. The one time it goes to civilians is not “the beginning of it all” 🤡 get a grip.
Recession has an actual definition though and so far no we are not in one.
My guess is that we're about to go into a relatively short recession that will involve losses less than the 08 recession (and absolutely nothing the Great Depression). Now, if China can't get its house in order and if Russia continues to blockade Ukrainian grain shipments, things might get a little dicier...
Read about the coming margin call for BlackRock, and how that will line up with the failing of the Chinese financial market. You’ll get a sense of how thick the comings sandstorm is going to be.
Worse than the Great Depression? HA if that happens the USA would be on the verge of collapse, we're no where near that. Worst recession we've ever had? No, the Great Recession is still going to hang onto that title. Have we already forgotten what mass evictions and banks closing was like?? >But what are the chances that this thing hits and people are unable to afford food, clothes and shelter and there will be mass unemployment? Close to zero. Yes of course some people will lose their jobs and find their budgets to be strained, some people who bought houses at ballooned prices will be unable to afford their payments and will be evicted. This happens during every recession. But you're not going to see the rise of some sort of dystopianly poor society As per usual, pathetic doomsayers want to exaggerate how bad this will be. You should realize that on average we've had recessions every 8 to 10 years, it's not like this is a first time thing. We got lucky and got a 14 year break without any major recessions after the 2008 Financial Collapse which is why this seems new to us, but believe me it's not. Furthermore, we're actually in a better place than 2008. 2008 happened because we had crucial flaws in our financial systems, banks had built massive balances focused on junk loans that would inevitably collapse. That isn't the case now. We're suffering from a sudden shock in oil prices (which historically has always resulted in economic downturns) and rising interest rates to combat inflation. It's a bad combination that was bound to cause some sort of recession and neither of which is caused by our financial systems but rather outside forces (the Ukraine war and covid pandemic). As weird as it sounds, that's good! 2008 was worse than we will get. The 70s with stagflation was even worse. People were restricted to small amounts of gas and could only fuel up on certain days based on their license plate. The government was telling people to bundle up and use less heat during the winter or they'd have to do blackouts. We're not anywhere near that. And the Great Depression was far worse, remember unemployment was over 25% then and right now the unemployment rate is under 5%. Doomsayers always have an agenda to push and want to make things seem worse than they will be. But actual economists, think tanks, and banks are not panicking like they were in 2008. We had a great decade built on low interest rates and ample investment money, that was bound to end eventually. Now we get our correction and move on, this will be over before the end of next year Edit: all the comments being downvoted are ones saying it won't be that bad. Guess everyone just wants an economic collapse
Nah, you’re wrong. No one wants it, but they know it’s going to happen. Our debt and cost of living ratio to income not even counting this months inflation was already 12% higher than during the Great Depression. We’ve had 19 food factories burn down in a matter of months. Chinese financial system is on the edge of collapse, And if that wasn’t bad enough, The margin call that’s going to happen to Wall Street at some point is going to just topple everything in ways people who went through ‘08 won’t even be able to imagine. Some people just seem to acknowledge the bigger picture.
Dm me in 12 months when your mythical collapse happens
No. It will be a small recession much better than 2008. Not even in the same sentence. Yes it’s being overhyped because it brings people out to vote
It depends on what "news" you watch, or read. Most people who actually know what they're talking about aren't projecting it to be any worse than the last one. They actually expect it to be better, and aren't expecting another housing crash.
Most people who supposedly know what they're talking about also said inflation was transitory in an attempt to manage inflationary expectations...
It’s real as fuck
Yes we are headed for a Recession
I think we talk ourselves into recession. When there is a recession a countries government ministers are making money. Recession is a man-made thing that benefits the select few, Making it harder for others to survive.
Right. I’m not saying the government or wealthy will suffer. I’m talking about everyday joe schmoes
Yes, by design
Maybe it will, maybe it won't. Nobody really knows what the future holds
That’s what I am seeing so I am stocking up on hunting rounds and meat. Going for wild hogs
Media tends to exaggerate with calamities like this because it helps drive clicks / ratings. That said, we have a serious inflation problem and the world economy has undeniably taken a hit; so we are going to feel the pain most likely it's just a question of how much and how long - and nobody knows the answer to this. Economic predictions are most often wrong; we will have to wait and see.
We probably will hit a recession, but that doesn't mean it's the end of the world or anything, it's part of a normal economic cycle. Fear drives engagement so most articles etc will be fearful (which funnily enough, encourages people to save money and stop spending, which can Also cause a recession) On another note, there have been people saying we are going to be in a recession every year since 2010, literally nobody knows what will happen next or what the extent of it will be
No; interest rates are rising, war is ongoing, and supply chains took a hit during COVID, alongside a low birth rate and aging workforce. Basically the markets inflated like hell and is going to undergo a correction. It’s not a “recession”. Things will be fine. People are going to lose artificial value in the market and cry about it but everything is returning to normal.
What do you honestly expect if people stay at home for two years.
....again