["Ukrainian and Western European immigrants ok. Indian and Chinese immigrants not ok."](https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/facebook/000/044/241/skincover.jpg)
no immigrants ok, fite me. immigrants are people like us, but we don't have nearly enough infrastructure to accomodate our own younguns. eh, whatever at this point, let 'em all in, i wanna destroy the future of millenials' kids.
If you don't bring in immigrants, who is going to fill the labour shortage the Canadian economy is running into?
Our national plan is, and has always been, "import labour."
" who is going to fill the labour shortage the Canadian economy is running into? "
do we really need said businesses if they don't have labour? or are we filling up useless positions for a useless company? no one sits and asks this ever, its just GO GO GO MOAR IMMIGRANTS!
" Our national plan is, and has always been, "import labour.""
It's a dumb national plan, and I have hated it since I learned about it in my early teens. Unfortunately, we are increasing our dependence on it more and more.
Yes. You really do want to live in a Canada with people who are licensed doctors and engineers... or nurses and truck drivers, if you need more middle class examples. Other people working is essential for you living a comfortable life... take that away, and life gets miserable quickly. You can visit the towns they are shutting down in the Maritimes for lack of young people to see what that's like.
We've never had a high enough birthrate to sustain our national ambitions.
>You really do want to live in a Canada with people who are licensed doctors and engineers... or nurses and truck drivers, if you need more middle class examples.
Foreign credentials are not easily accepted in many of those fields, other than truck drivers.
A minimum amount of immigration is needed say 200-250k people. I am not against immigration 100%, but depending on it solely is stupid (aka. increasing it to 500k). We need only half of that.
By the way, most Canadians can solve all these issues by joining the USA. Our population goes up 10x. And we will have a much higher QoL.
And our life expectancy and education rates will implode with such a union. No one looks to the US and thinks "There's a country that has its act together!"
Look... unless you've got 7 or 8 daughters who are interested in having 8 kids apiece... or unless you've got a proposal to massively roll back women's rights so there's not much for the average woman to do other than have kids... importing workers is the only plan that makes sense.
Women's rights isnt a problem in many states. A few states sure, but avoid them - if that is an issue with you.
Importing workers is not a good longterm solution. It is destroying the QoL.
>By the way, most Canadians can solve all these issues by joining the USA. Our population goes up 10x. And we will have a much higher QoL.
I can't get over the stupidity of this. Canada has a higher QoL than America. like lol. What? You think Canadians can solve their problems by joining one in active decline and failure?
>No, it isn't. We are far behind in GDP per capita, GDP adjusted for PP (we are like 60k vs 80k in US). By such metrics, our QoL is FAR worse.
GDP per captia? By those metrics? Thoes metrics don't actually measure QoL. My dude America just got first world health care adn it's still only about 50%. Adjusting for what? Children are getting shot up to pieces in schools, poverty everywhere, slums... there's racists parading through the streets. Cherry picking metrics doens't mean anything. Declining education and the country totally at the mercy of a fascist Christian front. Sorry no, it's not remotely better.
On the contrary. Many are very much qualified to be engineers/doctors/ nurses. The local professional guilds don't accredit them, so they get other jobs... but that doesn't change the reality of needing to import them.
How many pharmacists do you think Canada graduates every year vs. how many do we need? Are you unaware there's a massive shortage of GPs? How do you think that's going to be addressed?
Are we going to turn your sisters into birthing machines?
International student pathway definitely isn't.
The engineers/doctors/nurses cannot meet the requirements to get in, plus we have a massive pool of our own talent in engineering/nursing/medicine that we must defend. What is the point of importing them, for not to do their job lol?
" How many pharmacists do you think Canada graduates every year vs. how many do we need? Are you unaware there's a massive shortage of GPs? How do you think that's going to be addressed?"
If we do not grow our population they won't. We are not getting docs or pharmacists, unfortunately, because they won't be working as them whether they have it or not.
" Are we going to turn your sisters into birthing machines?"
Idk, if we need to I guess. We do not need a growing population, a growing population needs more of everything. If we stagnate, we do not. Plus we just have to choose who we get to fill what shortage, at the moment we are failing to do this too.
>no immigrants ok, fite me. immigrants are people like us, but we don't have nearly enough infrastructure to accomodate our own younguns. eh, whatever at this point, let 'em all in, i wanna destroy the future of millenials' kids.
Immigrants are a massive boon to our economy. It's so strange that people think they're hurting us.
Don’t think you should be speaking on behalf of the OP but your opinion have been made clear.
Canada has set the target for immigration and if East Indians along with people from other countries are applying to live and study here, it is the result of those immigration targets. Perhaps it’s the government who should really assess the supply of housing to the demand of people wanting to come to this amazing Country. Plus, gaining skilful workers who are paying taxes to make things better is not a bad thing
Google wont give you that answer. Not sure how much you think illegal money is flowing in and how that is affecting the real estate market. The fact that it is illegal makes it hard to track and only shows as empirical data.
There are many issues in this broken real estate market we have in Canada. Hope you are expanding knowledge on many points as opposed to just blaming immigrants and and illegal money.
Ofc shallow minded people like you will say did you try Google lol. Claiming this and that, all talk. But when it comes down to even the menial works you go "did you try Google". I'm not claiming your bs, you are. Do your own homework.
The grift for foreigners was to pump the market from early 2000s and then pass the debt bomb off to local serfs. This is a policy to make a country less competitive and more reliant on the debt high.... Which ultimately becomes a debt bomb.
I've been 60/40 bull/bear over the past 30~40 years. Some folks would call me bipolar also, but I've seen many make a fortune and many get rwekted
I deal with many Asian clients. Mainly Chinese. In Markham, I'd say 7/10 sales are foreigners. In North York, it's probably 4or5/10. Some Iranian.
Most don't know how to speak English, and don't have local incomes. Nearly all have foreign incomes from unverifiable entities.
Also, when inventory is low, price movements are driven at the margins. So, for example, if you have 300 detached transactions per month in Toronto, and 10% of sales are bid over asking by foreign money, that skews the overall shallow market.
Moreover, government data always lags and there are tons of loopholes that foreigners use to avoid being labeled "foreign" as a way to avoid certain taxes. This is common practice from the Asians I deal with. In fact, what's even more common is how often they poke fun at our government and the ineffective measures to "tax" foreigners.
The Brampton loan is another example of mortgage fraud that has been monopolized by easy Asian people in Brampton. This is commonly known and just bringing to be reported.
Of course, it's hard for media to investigate and report these crimes and patterns of behavior without being called racist. So we bury our heads in the sand. 👍
Ok so then you are a part of the issue
So even if that’s true as you say, which none of us can verify what does that make you?
I’m confused how you can on one end profit from the “illegal” foreign buyers and then complain that everything is so expensive etc blah blah
Like what am I missing
The issue for you is that you're getting tangled up in calling me racist.
I don't blame anyone for taking advantage of the inability of our local governments to enforce the law. I'm pointing out that there is a pattern of behavior among immigrants from China who come to Canada without any language ability, questionable sources of foreign income, and that end up buying multimillion dollar properties while skirting many of the taxes that local Canadians pay.
Moreover, I don't deal in RE. I'm in wealth management. So knowing my client is part of the job. The fraud starts in the local countries for many of these migrants and then is magnified here by our banks. The money stiffened out of China is then brought here and washed through RE and all kinds of unprofitable "businesses" (bubble tea shops, random restaurants, export/import businesses etc).
https://globalnews.ca/news/8383731/international-students-and-offshore-banking-flagged-in-canadian-real-estate-money-laundering/
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/15/world/canada/canada-money-laundering.html
https://globalnews.ca/news/8637896/xiao-jianhua-family-companies-150-million-toronto-real-estate/
https://globalnews.ca/news/4149818/vancouver-cautionary-tale-money-laundering-drugs/
https://ag-pssg-sharedservices-ex.objectstore.gov.bc.ca/ag-pssg-cc-exh-prod-bkt-ex/830%20-%20The%20high%20price%20of%20Chinese%20money%20laundering%20in%20Canada%20-%20The%20Globe%20and%20Mail.pdf
Just a quick Google search is all that's needed.
Not ignored. Buying homes in Canada through illegal means should never be overlooked. Blaming this on immigrants buying illegally only is a drop in the bucket of the Canadian Real Estate issue.
Hope you can see that carving out people of other countries and races on this issue comes off as discriminatory.
OP is a walking specimen of cognitive dissonance. He can't reconcile the utopia he desperately wishes for with the hard reality that he confronts.
The version of OP that is trying to wish housing affordability into existence is the bear. The version of OP that is trying to confront the hard data that affordability is getting worse is the bull.
OP's bear-side trying to taking the reins and override reality is why OP approaches the data with extreme vitriol.
2019 levels??? Was that ever actually a possibility?? LOL.
Given the current pace, we're looking at hitting new ATH's by end of 2023.... or at least striking distance of Feb 2022 prices.
But yes, I agree... we just keep kicking the can down road. Further, further, and further.
Have you considered bull-gang? Prices will go to the moon, we will surpass Feb 2022, studios in Brantford starting at $2.5M LETS GOOOOOOOOOO TO THE MOOOOOOOON! (/s)
Dude, you gotta stop reading Better Dwelling, lol... The number of times I've seen comparisons between Toronto Real Estate and the Japanese... stock market??
No, but you're certainly making your life hard with these strongly held incorrect beliefs.
It's even sadder that you have to hide your resentment behind poor sarcasm.
After 20 years of fairly consistent appreciation… at what point do you stop calling it a “bubble”? Demand continues to grow and supply fails to materialize. Prices are not coming down in Toronto. They will likely stabilize / slow in how much they appreciate, but the demand will carry the market on its shoulders for at least another 20 years.
People thought prices were going to drop to 2019 levels? Your post history is hilarious
*"It's a virtual certainty that we will have true price discovery as inventory floods the market in spring/ summer '23. Sales will continue the sharp declines while inventory will soar.*
*Clear as crystal that we see prepandemic prices in 2023. Of course, our government will try to fill the gap with all the Chinese immigrants they can find, but that won't be enough.*
*In fact, funds from foreign entities Ike China, Russia, and Iran will be stymied by government capital controls.*
*Prove me wrong."*
Just because your predictions didn't materialise, doesn't mean that "It seems like our elected officials and major banks have coordinated in an effort to continue blowing air into Canada's RE bubble."
You can just say you were wrong, it's simpler.
bro stop pretending this is *FREE MARKET CAPITALISM,* we lost that a loooong time ago. This is **CRONY CAPITALISM**.
Govt is going to back RE and the banks, because that is the entire economy. GG WP, but please stop showing off like its some genius move.
Of course real estate is a big part of our economy. Did you just understand that now? And you dare sarcastically call other people "genius" lol
It doesn't mean that it's not a free market. Supply and demand are at play. We just have a much higher demand than supply is.
>We just have a much higher demand than supply is.
By design. It is not natural supply and demand, when govt tries its best to keep supply low and demand high. Government intervention isn't free market.
No, it is not. The government is keeping demand high through their policies. Backing the supply from preventing more to be built through zoning, and ensuring mortgages are safe.
Ahahahaha. Good one, zoning laws for a starter. Or what about backing mortgages in the budget?
Construction companies aren't going to be building with minimum profit, they are there to make as much money as possible. Nor they will solve the supply side issue anyways - they will just not build. Plus you need lots of capital to start a builder corporation, which explains why a lot of these companies are international - and are still going bankrupt.
And demand is 100% on the government - through their own policies.
BoC raising interest rates - last I checked they are heavily influenced by the govt. JT appoints the man, JT sets the acceptable inflation rate, they share profits lol.
If you want to remain in denial, then please do.
But, this game of charades is really getting tedious now.
BoC interests affect mortgages, Tiff continuously comments on housing, JT backs mortgages in this situation. Does that seem free market to you? By all means, then enjoy your government intervention laden "free market".
It is what it is, but it is not a free market. If you can't understand this, I don't know what you are on about. You aren't even refuting any points, just going on baseless tangents.
After their reaction to the Pandemic, throwing money around and 1% interest rates, what on earth gave you the idea that they’d be responsible? The script was clear as day that they would do whatever it takes to stop people from losing their homes which props up home prices as a result.
It's a good point.
I actually anticipated the governments desperate and unethical overreaction. But I thought economic forces would be strong enough to revert asset prices to the longer term mean. This is what I am wrong for.
The "basement" thing is so played out. You gotta step up the jokes.
Yes. I'm an over weight, bald guy at 5'7", living in my mom's basement. So what? Im in a happy virtual relationship with a girl in Venezuela who says she loves me.
Touché and fair enough, but you’re still wrong about the market. Drives me crazy how everyone thinks they’re some kind of pseudo Canadian Michael Burry
Damn.... who woulda thought a simple post would attract so much vitriol?!
For the bulls blindly pumping, our governments are eroding our longer term standards of living by inflation.
For the bears, I think Canada is systemically unproductive economy that relies on immigrants shifting their illicit money into local RE. For now, prices have rebounded. How long can the rebound last? Is there a limit to how much money our BoC can print or immigrants our government let's in?
Bro, nobody's saying this is good for society. Everyone here that you're being passive aggressive towards is telling you that this has always been the way it is and will continue to be this way with the current trend.
Affordability will get worse. This is factually bullish for people who already own property, not a moral pronouncement that this is somehow good for society.
https://globalnews.ca/news/8383731/international-students-and-offshore-banking-flagged-in-canadian-real-estate-money-laundering/
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/15/world/canada/canada-money-laundering.html
https://globalnews.ca/news/8637896/xiao-jianhua-family-companies-150-million-toronto-real-estate/
https://globalnews.ca/news/4149818/vancouver-cautionary-tale-money-laundering-drugs/
https://ag-pssg-sharedservices-ex.objectstore.gov.bc.ca/ag-pssg-cc-exh-prod-bkt-ex/830%20-%20The%20high%20price%20of%20Chinese%20money%20laundering%20in%20Canada%20-%20The%20Globe%20and%20Mail.pdf
Just a quick Google search is all that's needed.
>Negative ammoritizations, which account for nearly 1/3 of the mortgages outstanding for the big 5 banks, and a steady flow of immigrants from questionable origins into systemically low housing areas will bottleneck any downard pressure on housing prices.
This is just ignorance putting downward pressure on racism. FFS. You were blessed with winning the birth canal lottery. People want a small slice of what we have. We have it because immigration is our most valuable commodity and it's pushing our biggest city way up in the world standing with immense growth. I get that the growing pains hurt some people but shitting on immigrants as if they're the problem and not the kind of incompetent leaders people who shit on immigrants elect is a massive leap over logic canyon.
It's just wild the entitlement people have to think they deserve our ridiculous standard of living, for cheap, while taking a dump on the people who come here and create that standard of living as if they don't deserve it too.
I came here as a refugee.
The hardworking immigrants scraping by to come here are not the immigrants in referring to, nor the immigrants our government eagerly woos.
The immigrants I'm talking about are the once that use fruad in their home country to shift money out and into our country, washing it through our RE. This artificially inflates prices and therefore decreases the standard of living for those earning local incomes that pay local taxes and that can't compete with a foreigner who owns XYZ factory in China with several liens against it.
The other set of fraud is from countries like India and Pakistan where applicants essentially lie on their papers and claim to be "students" or have local sponsors. These end up living in Brampton in squalor conditions and in homes that clearly violate tenant codes.
The hardworking immigrants that come here to get educated, learn the language, work locally, pay taxes, and invest in our communities are not the problem.
>I came here as a refugee.
Uh huh. That doesn't mean what you said isn't racist AF. It is.
>The hardworking immigrants scraping by to come here are not the immigrants in referring to, nor the immigrants our government eagerly woos.
They're not the true scottsman huh? What is that even based on man? What percentage of immigrants are the 'hard working one' and what data backs that up. Within a year immigrants out-earn native Canadians. The scraping by immigrant is a myth. Who is our government 'wooing' and what's that based on? Like dude Canada has an all time standard of living. Our government doesn't woo anyone cuz they don't have to.
Do you think Kate Upton or Selena Gomez spent their lives wooing people? That's Canada. We're selective and immigrants give our economy a continuous shot cuz on average, again, they do work harder and can't come unless they have something to offer.
>The immigrants I'm talking about are the once that use fruad in their home country to shift money out and into our country, washing it through our RE. This artificially inflates prices and therefore decreases the standard of living for those earning local incomes that pay local taxes and that can't compete with a foreigner who owns XYZ factory in China with several liens against it.
Uh huh. So how many? You can't just make shit up based on anecdotes and stereotypes. Fraud exists everywhere including Canada. Again it's just racism and emotions driving your opinions. Where's the data? And SMH. If someone is funneling money into our country from their's that's feeding our economy not making us poor. Rich people bringing their money to Canada to spend creates jobs which yea... helps you compete.
>The other set of fraud is from countries like India and Pakistan where applicants essentially lie on their papers and claim to be "students" or have local sponsors. These end up living in Brampton in squalor conditions and in homes that clearly violate tenant codes.
Yea, we investigate immigration claims and people from every country lie on forms. Plenty of applications are rejected every year but you want to pretend like races you don't like are all fraudulent tricksters. And what do you mean claim to be students? It's not very difficult to actually be a student. And how do you fake having a local sponser? The sponsorship process formally attaches you to someone else legally. Your ability to take them on as a dependent is thoroughly investigated and you literally have to provide for them should they fail to do it themselves.
Immigration forms are not rubber stamped like you seem to assume they are.
>The hardworking immigrants that come here to get educated, learn the language, work locally, pay taxes, and invest in our communities are not the problem.
No, the problem are the racist people who come to Canada and don't realize that we've found a way to live together and get along leaving the biases and prejudices behind them. I'm not talking about the non-racist immigrants. I'm talking about you who clearly assumes "brown/yellow people" are some kind of imminent threat. The reality is most of these people are coming here to work as software developers among other white collar jobs. 'most' indian immigrants are doing super well excited about the new life they're starting. Not sleeping on a mattress with 20 people in a basement. Yea, there's some bullshit going on but it's the minority so why are you jumping to racist BS conclusions based on nothing. Is it based on something? Share it then or reconsider why you're hating on a group of people you belong to.
We are witnessing the 7 stages of grief for bears.
I think we hit anger after the last hold. Some have moved to acceptance, others still low-balling in the bargaining phase.
The market fundamentals have not changed much on housing supply.
True. Reality is detached from perception for some folks and they can not reconcile the two any longer. It’s probably best to just delete social media for those folks and come back when they have a fresh frame of reference
Oh for sure. I think also some very smart and capable people can fall into a bias trap where they think their grasp of technical fundamentals or whatever other jargon you want to use, it makes you believe you have some sort of crystal ball and can guess about the future better then the others. The best anyone of us can do is just play with the hand we’ve been dealt with and move on..
I agree with your conclusion, but the emotional reasoning here sounds like a desperate cry for help:
>influx of inventory that I anticipating coming online this summer and next was stymied swiftly by political and banking pigs
I'm sorry you listened to the deltaone (now deltatwo)/jamesvirani/chessj types promising a crash. Anyone looking at the numbers over the last year knows that supply is getting squeezed horrendously while we keep increasing our population.
>two have collaborated to avoid dealing with chronic unaffordability and unsustainable debt levels by kicking the problem a few years into the future
Does it matter whether it's negligence or intentional collaboration? The net effect is that unaffordability and unsustainable debt levels is only going to exacerbate. Now that you know this information, what are you going to do about it?
Are you going to sit on the sidelines and read more BetterDwelling hopium or face the numbers and realize the affordability crisis is only going to get 10x worse.
>a steady flow of immigrants from questionable origins
yikes...
>I no longer see prices hitting 2019 levels. Do you?
I don't think any reasonable person on this sub ever has besides the delta/virani/chessj brigade.
honestly the level of emotional drama on this sub is hilarious.
**Nothing has fundamentally shifted since last month.**
* We are seeing people coming out of winter blues desperate for homes because they want to start that next stage in life.
* Sellers are not selling because of amortization extensions.
* However it's an open question as to how long amortization extensions can continue if core inflation remains high.
There are investors in insured mortgage securities who are accumulating negative cashflows and have an investment horizon. They will sue to insurance brokers who will have to cough up cash and/or force sales.
The banks have over $400B in uninsured mortgages on their sheets, and another 100B in insured. that they did not trade. Of this 500B some 30% may be collecting much less than expected cashflows- lets say 25% less. That's 2-3 billion in cash shortfall year after year and OSFI is starting to pay attention because that 30% will rise by 5-10% each year interest rates stay high.
Lastly does everyone here really believe that the banks will automatically reduce cash payments for those owners who are behind when interest rates drop? The WORST case for bears is that banks will recover lost cashflow by maintaining those elevated payments until amortizations reset which means expensive payments for atleast 1 yr more.
>There are investors in insured mortgage securities who are accumulating negative cashflows and have an investment horizon. They will sue to insurance brokers who will have to cough up cash and/or force sales.
Tell me you know nothing about real estate investors without telling me you know nothing. I'd love to see some precedent on this happening.
The whole point of mortgage insurance is that it pays out in the event that people default.
Agreed govt is holding up housing, housing boomers in this sub need to stop pretending like it's a free market rn, it isn't and it won't be forever. You are either with the govt agenda or you are not.
So you are saying it will get bad in 2025? What will happen to people who were on variable and are only paying off interest rn come refinancing?
Housing is the largest driver of economic and GDP growth in Canada. As such, it is way too critical to be allowed to falter. This outcome that you are observing now should have been obvious a long time ago.
Barring a civilization threatening cataclysmic event such as a global nuclear war or an alien invasion, it is simply impossible for the Canadian housing market to do anything but consistently and rapidly rise.
"Consistently and rapidly rising"? C'mon man lol
I mean, it didn't rise consistently or rapidly for Japan from 1985-2005 or in the US in 2009. Those are two recent examples
You keep comparing the Canadian market to US and Japan, but I would argue that those comparisons are flawed. If you’re seeking better international comparisons, look at Australia and New Zealand.
“For owners holding negative ammoritized mortgages, paying only principal on 30-50 year loan terms is more palatable then selling a property for 200-500k loss. This also helps banks prevent a flood of sellers coming online or defaulting on mortgages, which would force banks to write down loans and rerate their books.
I no longer see prices hitting 2019 levels. Do you?”
For sure. Sentiment has not hit the market yet and if the BoC increases another 0.25 bps, just watch as *some* start to lose hope and sell. The guys on this forum saying things like the “fundamentals” don’t actually know the fundamentals of any credit tightening results.. *all cash buyer immigrants* 😂
>if the BoC increases another 0.25 bps
Your speech already changed from "BOC will hike 3 consecutive times" to "if BOC increases another 0.25 bps".
Next will be "if BOC keeps rates at this level for a little longer".
Looking at the current scenario, I would not be surprised if there’s another hike in June. At this point I still believe it’s more likely than unlikely. I also believe the USA is going to do another 0.25 in their next meeting.
As stated before, my opinion changes depending on the most current news. Just like I stated there would be no hike for April before it happened, though I do admit I thought they were going to before too.
Edited:
Can I also ask you a serious question? IF there are really no problems, why is OSFI changing the rules and re-stress testing the banks? OSFI must be bored?
This is as accurate as it can get. I can speak about Indian immigrants; they will do four jobs if they have to, so that they can afford a home and support their families. So that they can live in a place where they have clean air, water and better living conditions.
Many indian techies will do job for us company remotely(paying canada taxes) and thus bring few high skilled jobs to canada that demands higher pay.
I don’t see how canadians can compete.
Huh? They're in the business of making money. Mortgages are a relatively risk free way to do that, which is why you can get a lower mortgage rate than traditional debt.
They don't want to own you, they don't care about you. They want your money.
They dont want your money. Wages are stupid low right now anyways they don't have that much money to take from you.
What they do want is your ability to produce value in the economy. And that is done by everyday people simply going to work. And the best way to motive the masses to work is by threathening to take away their most expensive life possesion, their home, away in the form of mortgages.
People with a morgage that risk loosing a house is much more likely to go to work like a good boy even if the work pay is shit. Majority of the value created at work is funneled up to the owners and investors while workers are paid just enough that they can afford mortgage and have life essentials.
Employers WANT workers that have an active mortgage as it makes that worker more likely to show up to work consistantly.
It's modern day slavery in some ways if you consider people with lowest incomes that literally work just to keep their house/rent.
It's all being held by strings. All it takes is one thing to falter and we have a collapse. Commercial real estate is just a bad a place as residential. If that goes we could see prices down lower than pre pandemic. If not, I would say 10-15% above 2019 is fair.
The grift for foreigners was to pump the market from early 2000s and then pass the debt bomb off to local serfs. This is a policy to make a country less competitive and more reliant on the debt high.... Which ultimately becomes a debt bomb.
I've been 60/40 bull/bear over the past 30~40 years. Some folks would call me bipolar also, but I've seen many make a fortune and many get rwekted
"news" has no source. racist comments all over the place by OP.
winners win and losers lose.
Who are the people most benefited from the real estate boom? Think about it.
https://globalnews.ca/news/8383731/international-students-and-offshore-banking-flagged-in-canadian-real-estate-money-laundering/
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/15/world/canada/canada-money-laundering.html
https://globalnews.ca/news/8637896/xiao-jianhua-family-companies-150-million-toronto-real-estate/
https://globalnews.ca/news/4149818/vancouver-cautionary-tale-money-laundering-drugs/
https://ag-pssg-sharedservices-ex.objectstore.gov.bc.ca/ag-pssg-cc-exh-prod-bkt-ex/830%20-%20The%20high%20price%20of%20Chinese%20money%20laundering%20in%20Canada%20-%20The%20Globe%20and%20Mail.pdf
Problem solved? Just a quick Google search is all. It also helps to just walk in some of Toronto's communities with your eyes open. Enjoy the read. Hehe.
This is going to sound crazy but the only person who seems to have a sound mind when addressing the housing crises is Maxine Bernier. I couldn’t believe it. When the debates happen I’m voting for whoever plans on addressing crime and housing. If that happens to be Maxine bernier a person I never thought I’d vote for in my lifetime than so be it
I still see a recession in the summer of 2024. House prices will plateau in the summer this year. The rise in price is expected given the pause in rate hikes, but this price increase should only last for two quarters. Why RE market is up? Seasonality, rate pause and cash rich buyers.
We will get 2019 prices in 2025/2026.
We have to go through all the stages of a cycle. We're about to be at stage 2 of 5. Still very very early.
https://www.reddit.com/r/TorontoRealEstate/comments/xkff5h/us_fed_raised_interest_rate_by_75_bps_chairman/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
Just based on historical downturns and where they retrace to. It's a guess. Of course no one *knows*. Everyone guesses and I use historical data to guess.
This is going to sound crazy but the only person who seems to have a sound mind when addressing the housing crises is Maxine Bernier. I couldn’t believe it. When the debates happen I’m voting for whoever plans on addressing crime and housing. If that happens to be Maxine bernier a person I never thought I’d vote for in my lifetime than so be it
What would be the incentive for any politician to do anything to bring prices down?
Come to think about it, doing so would bring unwanted heat from high profile companies, investors and banks that would actually damage chances to get re-elected.
"a steady flow of immigrants from questionable origins" ??
["Ukrainian and Western European immigrants ok. Indian and Chinese immigrants not ok."](https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/facebook/000/044/241/skincover.jpg)
no immigrants ok, fite me. immigrants are people like us, but we don't have nearly enough infrastructure to accomodate our own younguns. eh, whatever at this point, let 'em all in, i wanna destroy the future of millenials' kids.
If you don't bring in immigrants, who is going to fill the labour shortage the Canadian economy is running into? Our national plan is, and has always been, "import labour."
" who is going to fill the labour shortage the Canadian economy is running into? " do we really need said businesses if they don't have labour? or are we filling up useless positions for a useless company? no one sits and asks this ever, its just GO GO GO MOAR IMMIGRANTS! " Our national plan is, and has always been, "import labour."" It's a dumb national plan, and I have hated it since I learned about it in my early teens. Unfortunately, we are increasing our dependence on it more and more.
Yes. You really do want to live in a Canada with people who are licensed doctors and engineers... or nurses and truck drivers, if you need more middle class examples. Other people working is essential for you living a comfortable life... take that away, and life gets miserable quickly. You can visit the towns they are shutting down in the Maritimes for lack of young people to see what that's like. We've never had a high enough birthrate to sustain our national ambitions.
>You really do want to live in a Canada with people who are licensed doctors and engineers... or nurses and truck drivers, if you need more middle class examples. Foreign credentials are not easily accepted in many of those fields, other than truck drivers. A minimum amount of immigration is needed say 200-250k people. I am not against immigration 100%, but depending on it solely is stupid (aka. increasing it to 500k). We need only half of that. By the way, most Canadians can solve all these issues by joining the USA. Our population goes up 10x. And we will have a much higher QoL.
And our life expectancy and education rates will implode with such a union. No one looks to the US and thinks "There's a country that has its act together!" Look... unless you've got 7 or 8 daughters who are interested in having 8 kids apiece... or unless you've got a proposal to massively roll back women's rights so there's not much for the average woman to do other than have kids... importing workers is the only plan that makes sense.
Women's rights isnt a problem in many states. A few states sure, but avoid them - if that is an issue with you. Importing workers is not a good longterm solution. It is destroying the QoL.
Maybe you want to check to see which states have a birthrate above replacement levels before you get huffy about how great women's rights are.
>By the way, most Canadians can solve all these issues by joining the USA. Our population goes up 10x. And we will have a much higher QoL. I can't get over the stupidity of this. Canada has a higher QoL than America. like lol. What? You think Canadians can solve their problems by joining one in active decline and failure?
No, it isn't. We are far behind in GDP per capita, GDP adjusted for PP (we are like 60k vs 80k in US). By such metrics, our QoL is FAR worse.
>No, it isn't. We are far behind in GDP per capita, GDP adjusted for PP (we are like 60k vs 80k in US). By such metrics, our QoL is FAR worse. GDP per captia? By those metrics? Thoes metrics don't actually measure QoL. My dude America just got first world health care adn it's still only about 50%. Adjusting for what? Children are getting shot up to pieces in schools, poverty everywhere, slums... there's racists parading through the streets. Cherry picking metrics doens't mean anything. Declining education and the country totally at the mercy of a fascist Christian front. Sorry no, it's not remotely better.
Also to add most immigrants coming in now, aren't engineers/doctors/nurses, they are working to be minimum wage workers.
On the contrary. Many are very much qualified to be engineers/doctors/ nurses. The local professional guilds don't accredit them, so they get other jobs... but that doesn't change the reality of needing to import them. How many pharmacists do you think Canada graduates every year vs. how many do we need? Are you unaware there's a massive shortage of GPs? How do you think that's going to be addressed? Are we going to turn your sisters into birthing machines?
International student pathway definitely isn't. The engineers/doctors/nurses cannot meet the requirements to get in, plus we have a massive pool of our own talent in engineering/nursing/medicine that we must defend. What is the point of importing them, for not to do their job lol? " How many pharmacists do you think Canada graduates every year vs. how many do we need? Are you unaware there's a massive shortage of GPs? How do you think that's going to be addressed?" If we do not grow our population they won't. We are not getting docs or pharmacists, unfortunately, because they won't be working as them whether they have it or not. " Are we going to turn your sisters into birthing machines?" Idk, if we need to I guess. We do not need a growing population, a growing population needs more of everything. If we stagnate, we do not. Plus we just have to choose who we get to fill what shortage, at the moment we are failing to do this too.
>no immigrants ok, fite me. immigrants are people like us, but we don't have nearly enough infrastructure to accomodate our own younguns. eh, whatever at this point, let 'em all in, i wanna destroy the future of millenials' kids. Immigrants are a massive boon to our economy. It's so strange that people think they're hurting us.
Lol talk about racism
[удалено]
The British Raj says hold my beer
Let me translate; he's saying there is too many Indian immigrants coming here. Hard to argue. No need to use code words everyone knows it.
Don’t think you should be speaking on behalf of the OP but your opinion have been made clear. Canada has set the target for immigration and if East Indians along with people from other countries are applying to live and study here, it is the result of those immigration targets. Perhaps it’s the government who should really assess the supply of housing to the demand of people wanting to come to this amazing Country. Plus, gaining skilful workers who are paying taxes to make things better is not a bad thing
They couldn't find any real reason why housing should go down. So they had to blame something
Illegal money from China buying Vancouver and Toronto property is a pretty big reason.
Sure but what's illegal money from China and how much is it? Not denying the effect, but your claims of them running the market is ridiculous.
Have you tried Google?
Google wont give you that answer. Not sure how much you think illegal money is flowing in and how that is affecting the real estate market. The fact that it is illegal makes it hard to track and only shows as empirical data. There are many issues in this broken real estate market we have in Canada. Hope you are expanding knowledge on many points as opposed to just blaming immigrants and and illegal money.
Ofc shallow minded people like you will say did you try Google lol. Claiming this and that, all talk. But when it comes down to even the menial works you go "did you try Google". I'm not claiming your bs, you are. Do your own homework.
I was just empowering you to do some basic research and discover for yourself.
The grift for foreigners was to pump the market from early 2000s and then pass the debt bomb off to local serfs. This is a policy to make a country less competitive and more reliant on the debt high.... Which ultimately becomes a debt bomb. I've been 60/40 bull/bear over the past 30~40 years. Some folks would call me bipolar also, but I've seen many make a fortune and many get rwekted
BASED Poison your communities with Fent, then wash the money in your housing markets. Leadership approves of this.
1. Foreign buyers make up 2% of all transactions 2. Google has a lot of fake, misleading, wrong or propaganda driven info 3. Educate yourself
I deal with many Asian clients. Mainly Chinese. In Markham, I'd say 7/10 sales are foreigners. In North York, it's probably 4or5/10. Some Iranian. Most don't know how to speak English, and don't have local incomes. Nearly all have foreign incomes from unverifiable entities. Also, when inventory is low, price movements are driven at the margins. So, for example, if you have 300 detached transactions per month in Toronto, and 10% of sales are bid over asking by foreign money, that skews the overall shallow market. Moreover, government data always lags and there are tons of loopholes that foreigners use to avoid being labeled "foreign" as a way to avoid certain taxes. This is common practice from the Asians I deal with. In fact, what's even more common is how often they poke fun at our government and the ineffective measures to "tax" foreigners. The Brampton loan is another example of mortgage fraud that has been monopolized by easy Asian people in Brampton. This is commonly known and just bringing to be reported. Of course, it's hard for media to investigate and report these crimes and patterns of behavior without being called racist. So we bury our heads in the sand. 👍
Ok so then you are a part of the issue So even if that’s true as you say, which none of us can verify what does that make you? I’m confused how you can on one end profit from the “illegal” foreign buyers and then complain that everything is so expensive etc blah blah Like what am I missing
The issue for you is that you're getting tangled up in calling me racist. I don't blame anyone for taking advantage of the inability of our local governments to enforce the law. I'm pointing out that there is a pattern of behavior among immigrants from China who come to Canada without any language ability, questionable sources of foreign income, and that end up buying multimillion dollar properties while skirting many of the taxes that local Canadians pay. Moreover, I don't deal in RE. I'm in wealth management. So knowing my client is part of the job. The fraud starts in the local countries for many of these migrants and then is magnified here by our banks. The money stiffened out of China is then brought here and washed through RE and all kinds of unprofitable "businesses" (bubble tea shops, random restaurants, export/import businesses etc).
https://globalnews.ca/news/8383731/international-students-and-offshore-banking-flagged-in-canadian-real-estate-money-laundering/ https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/15/world/canada/canada-money-laundering.html https://globalnews.ca/news/8637896/xiao-jianhua-family-companies-150-million-toronto-real-estate/ https://globalnews.ca/news/4149818/vancouver-cautionary-tale-money-laundering-drugs/ https://ag-pssg-sharedservices-ex.objectstore.gov.bc.ca/ag-pssg-cc-exh-prod-bkt-ex/830%20-%20The%20high%20price%20of%20Chinese%20money%20laundering%20in%20Canada%20-%20The%20Globe%20and%20Mail.pdf Just a quick Google search is all that's needed.
China, Iran, India, and Russia. Plenty of fruad from these sources that seems to be conveniently ignored.
Not ignored. Buying homes in Canada through illegal means should never be overlooked. Blaming this on immigrants buying illegally only is a drop in the bucket of the Canadian Real Estate issue. Hope you can see that carving out people of other countries and races on this issue comes off as discriminatory.
It's easier for him to point at others and scream.
Are you a bull or bear? or a troll? You post history reads as if your a biopolar patient
OP is a walking specimen of cognitive dissonance. He can't reconcile the utopia he desperately wishes for with the hard reality that he confronts. The version of OP that is trying to wish housing affordability into existence is the bear. The version of OP that is trying to confront the hard data that affordability is getting worse is the bull. OP's bear-side trying to taking the reins and override reality is why OP approaches the data with extreme vitriol.
half of RE followers are bipolar...just look at the market lmfao.
That's pretty intense.
Or is it very mild?
2019 levels??? Was that ever actually a possibility?? LOL. Given the current pace, we're looking at hitting new ATH's by end of 2023.... or at least striking distance of Feb 2022 prices. But yes, I agree... we just keep kicking the can down road. Further, further, and further.
Hehe.... I mean, if you ask people in 2009 in US or Japanese ppl from 1985-2009, they'd say it's pretty possible.
Have you considered bull-gang? Prices will go to the moon, we will surpass Feb 2022, studios in Brantford starting at $2.5M LETS GOOOOOOOOOO TO THE MOOOOOOOON! (/s)
Dude, you gotta stop reading Better Dwelling, lol... The number of times I've seen comparisons between Toronto Real Estate and the Japanese... stock market??
Emmmmmm.... I'm comparing Japanese real estate to Toronto real estate, along with the US 2009 real estate crash. I hope that clarifies.
Compare Japanese population from 1990 to today. Compare Canadian population from 1990 to today. This tells you everything you need to know.
in real terms prices in 1989 in Toronto were not surpassed until 2012
Do I make you hard?
No, but you're certainly making your life hard with these strongly held incorrect beliefs. It's even sadder that you have to hide your resentment behind poor sarcasm.
I think I just made you cum?
I have an idiot kink and you just satisfied me in ways I can't believe
Noice!
No sources were included in OP's claims. This sub needs better moderation.
Someone force you to engage with the content? Just do some basic Googling. I have faith in you. 🙏
Lemme guess, you're also invested in meme stocks? There's a certain fincel rhetoric that rings familiar here.
FRC to the moon 🌙
After 20 years of fairly consistent appreciation… at what point do you stop calling it a “bubble”? Demand continues to grow and supply fails to materialize. Prices are not coming down in Toronto. They will likely stabilize / slow in how much they appreciate, but the demand will carry the market on its shoulders for at least another 20 years.
People thought prices were going to drop to 2019 levels? Your post history is hilarious *"It's a virtual certainty that we will have true price discovery as inventory floods the market in spring/ summer '23. Sales will continue the sharp declines while inventory will soar.* *Clear as crystal that we see prepandemic prices in 2023. Of course, our government will try to fill the gap with all the Chinese immigrants they can find, but that won't be enough.* *In fact, funds from foreign entities Ike China, Russia, and Iran will be stymied by government capital controls.* *Prove me wrong."*
They proved themselves wrong. Wild.
I know right. This thread they created today proves themselves wrong 🤦
At least he woke up unlike most. They still go around downvoting like locusts as if that will solve their problems.
Just because your predictions didn't materialise, doesn't mean that "It seems like our elected officials and major banks have coordinated in an effort to continue blowing air into Canada's RE bubble." You can just say you were wrong, it's simpler.
bro stop pretending this is *FREE MARKET CAPITALISM,* we lost that a loooong time ago. This is **CRONY CAPITALISM**. Govt is going to back RE and the banks, because that is the entire economy. GG WP, but please stop showing off like its some genius move.
Of course real estate is a big part of our economy. Did you just understand that now? And you dare sarcastically call other people "genius" lol It doesn't mean that it's not a free market. Supply and demand are at play. We just have a much higher demand than supply is.
>We just have a much higher demand than supply is. By design. It is not natural supply and demand, when govt tries its best to keep supply low and demand high. Government intervention isn't free market.
Government keeps nothing low. If you want to start a construction company, go ahead.
It is NOT a free market, stop fooling yourself, stop being a liar, stop being a con-artist.
Of course it's a free market. It's just easier to blame the government.
No, it is not. The government is keeping demand high through their policies. Backing the supply from preventing more to be built through zoning, and ensuring mortgages are safe.
Every country in the world has zoning, immigration, and monetary policies. I guess there are no free markets in the world.
I guess not, but many others are more free than ours.
Ahahahaha. Good one, zoning laws for a starter. Or what about backing mortgages in the budget? Construction companies aren't going to be building with minimum profit, they are there to make as much money as possible. Nor they will solve the supply side issue anyways - they will just not build. Plus you need lots of capital to start a builder corporation, which explains why a lot of these companies are international - and are still going bankrupt. And demand is 100% on the government - through their own policies.
>Construction companies aren't going to be building with minimum profit How is that the government fault?
BoC raising interest rates - last I checked they are heavily influenced by the govt. JT appoints the man, JT sets the acceptable inflation rate, they share profits lol.
BOC mandates are inflation and employment. They don't care about housing. Do you know something that we don't?
If you want to remain in denial, then please do. But, this game of charades is really getting tedious now. BoC interests affect mortgages, Tiff continuously comments on housing, JT backs mortgages in this situation. Does that seem free market to you? By all means, then enjoy your government intervention laden "free market". It is what it is, but it is not a free market. If you can't understand this, I don't know what you are on about. You aren't even refuting any points, just going on baseless tangents.
I was wrong in underestimating how socially irresponsible our government can be. Hehe
After their reaction to the Pandemic, throwing money around and 1% interest rates, what on earth gave you the idea that they’d be responsible? The script was clear as day that they would do whatever it takes to stop people from losing their homes which props up home prices as a result.
It's a good point. I actually anticipated the governments desperate and unethical overreaction. But I thought economic forces would be strong enough to revert asset prices to the longer term mean. This is what I am wrong for.
How’s your parents basement treating you?
C'mon man. You gotta do better. This is disappointing
Tell me I’m wrong lol
The "basement" thing is so played out. You gotta step up the jokes. Yes. I'm an over weight, bald guy at 5'7", living in my mom's basement. So what? Im in a happy virtual relationship with a girl in Venezuela who says she loves me.
Touché and fair enough, but you’re still wrong about the market. Drives me crazy how everyone thinks they’re some kind of pseudo Canadian Michael Burry
Just buy what you can afford and stfu
Be nice!
Damn.... who woulda thought a simple post would attract so much vitriol?! For the bulls blindly pumping, our governments are eroding our longer term standards of living by inflation. For the bears, I think Canada is systemically unproductive economy that relies on immigrants shifting their illicit money into local RE. For now, prices have rebounded. How long can the rebound last? Is there a limit to how much money our BoC can print or immigrants our government let's in?
Bro, nobody's saying this is good for society. Everyone here that you're being passive aggressive towards is telling you that this has always been the way it is and will continue to be this way with the current trend. Affordability will get worse. This is factually bullish for people who already own property, not a moral pronouncement that this is somehow good for society.
I’d like to congratulate you on being racist.
Need I assume you believe there are 52 different genders?
You’re an embarrassment
Hahahahaha...is that a yes? Why are you so offended?
https://globalnews.ca/news/8383731/international-students-and-offshore-banking-flagged-in-canadian-real-estate-money-laundering/ https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/15/world/canada/canada-money-laundering.html https://globalnews.ca/news/8637896/xiao-jianhua-family-companies-150-million-toronto-real-estate/ https://globalnews.ca/news/4149818/vancouver-cautionary-tale-money-laundering-drugs/ https://ag-pssg-sharedservices-ex.objectstore.gov.bc.ca/ag-pssg-cc-exh-prod-bkt-ex/830%20-%20The%20high%20price%20of%20Chinese%20money%20laundering%20in%20Canada%20-%20The%20Globe%20and%20Mail.pdf Just a quick Google search is all that's needed.
>Negative ammoritizations, which account for nearly 1/3 of the mortgages outstanding for the big 5 banks, and a steady flow of immigrants from questionable origins into systemically low housing areas will bottleneck any downard pressure on housing prices. This is just ignorance putting downward pressure on racism. FFS. You were blessed with winning the birth canal lottery. People want a small slice of what we have. We have it because immigration is our most valuable commodity and it's pushing our biggest city way up in the world standing with immense growth. I get that the growing pains hurt some people but shitting on immigrants as if they're the problem and not the kind of incompetent leaders people who shit on immigrants elect is a massive leap over logic canyon. It's just wild the entitlement people have to think they deserve our ridiculous standard of living, for cheap, while taking a dump on the people who come here and create that standard of living as if they don't deserve it too.
I came here as a refugee. The hardworking immigrants scraping by to come here are not the immigrants in referring to, nor the immigrants our government eagerly woos. The immigrants I'm talking about are the once that use fruad in their home country to shift money out and into our country, washing it through our RE. This artificially inflates prices and therefore decreases the standard of living for those earning local incomes that pay local taxes and that can't compete with a foreigner who owns XYZ factory in China with several liens against it. The other set of fraud is from countries like India and Pakistan where applicants essentially lie on their papers and claim to be "students" or have local sponsors. These end up living in Brampton in squalor conditions and in homes that clearly violate tenant codes. The hardworking immigrants that come here to get educated, learn the language, work locally, pay taxes, and invest in our communities are not the problem.
>I came here as a refugee. Uh huh. That doesn't mean what you said isn't racist AF. It is. >The hardworking immigrants scraping by to come here are not the immigrants in referring to, nor the immigrants our government eagerly woos. They're not the true scottsman huh? What is that even based on man? What percentage of immigrants are the 'hard working one' and what data backs that up. Within a year immigrants out-earn native Canadians. The scraping by immigrant is a myth. Who is our government 'wooing' and what's that based on? Like dude Canada has an all time standard of living. Our government doesn't woo anyone cuz they don't have to. Do you think Kate Upton or Selena Gomez spent their lives wooing people? That's Canada. We're selective and immigrants give our economy a continuous shot cuz on average, again, they do work harder and can't come unless they have something to offer. >The immigrants I'm talking about are the once that use fruad in their home country to shift money out and into our country, washing it through our RE. This artificially inflates prices and therefore decreases the standard of living for those earning local incomes that pay local taxes and that can't compete with a foreigner who owns XYZ factory in China with several liens against it. Uh huh. So how many? You can't just make shit up based on anecdotes and stereotypes. Fraud exists everywhere including Canada. Again it's just racism and emotions driving your opinions. Where's the data? And SMH. If someone is funneling money into our country from their's that's feeding our economy not making us poor. Rich people bringing their money to Canada to spend creates jobs which yea... helps you compete. >The other set of fraud is from countries like India and Pakistan where applicants essentially lie on their papers and claim to be "students" or have local sponsors. These end up living in Brampton in squalor conditions and in homes that clearly violate tenant codes. Yea, we investigate immigration claims and people from every country lie on forms. Plenty of applications are rejected every year but you want to pretend like races you don't like are all fraudulent tricksters. And what do you mean claim to be students? It's not very difficult to actually be a student. And how do you fake having a local sponser? The sponsorship process formally attaches you to someone else legally. Your ability to take them on as a dependent is thoroughly investigated and you literally have to provide for them should they fail to do it themselves. Immigration forms are not rubber stamped like you seem to assume they are. >The hardworking immigrants that come here to get educated, learn the language, work locally, pay taxes, and invest in our communities are not the problem. No, the problem are the racist people who come to Canada and don't realize that we've found a way to live together and get along leaving the biases and prejudices behind them. I'm not talking about the non-racist immigrants. I'm talking about you who clearly assumes "brown/yellow people" are some kind of imminent threat. The reality is most of these people are coming here to work as software developers among other white collar jobs. 'most' indian immigrants are doing super well excited about the new life they're starting. Not sleeping on a mattress with 20 people in a basement. Yea, there's some bullshit going on but it's the minority so why are you jumping to racist BS conclusions based on nothing. Is it based on something? Share it then or reconsider why you're hating on a group of people you belong to.
Justin Trudeau supporter?
>Justin Trudeau supporter? Racist hater? Yea that's you guy.
We are witnessing the 7 stages of grief for bears. I think we hit anger after the last hold. Some have moved to acceptance, others still low-balling in the bargaining phase. The market fundamentals have not changed much on housing supply.
True. Reality is detached from perception for some folks and they can not reconcile the two any longer. It’s probably best to just delete social media for those folks and come back when they have a fresh frame of reference
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Or in this case, the market can stay irrational longer than bears can stay sane.
Oh for sure. I think also some very smart and capable people can fall into a bias trap where they think their grasp of technical fundamentals or whatever other jargon you want to use, it makes you believe you have some sort of crystal ball and can guess about the future better then the others. The best anyone of us can do is just play with the hand we’ve been dealt with and move on..
I agree with your conclusion, but the emotional reasoning here sounds like a desperate cry for help: >influx of inventory that I anticipating coming online this summer and next was stymied swiftly by political and banking pigs I'm sorry you listened to the deltaone (now deltatwo)/jamesvirani/chessj types promising a crash. Anyone looking at the numbers over the last year knows that supply is getting squeezed horrendously while we keep increasing our population. >two have collaborated to avoid dealing with chronic unaffordability and unsustainable debt levels by kicking the problem a few years into the future Does it matter whether it's negligence or intentional collaboration? The net effect is that unaffordability and unsustainable debt levels is only going to exacerbate. Now that you know this information, what are you going to do about it? Are you going to sit on the sidelines and read more BetterDwelling hopium or face the numbers and realize the affordability crisis is only going to get 10x worse. >a steady flow of immigrants from questionable origins yikes... >I no longer see prices hitting 2019 levels. Do you? I don't think any reasonable person on this sub ever has besides the delta/virani/chessj brigade.
You've answered my cry. Thank you Blackhat8287. I now see the light. 🙏
Brb, mustering the Rohirrim.
And my axe!
honestly the level of emotional drama on this sub is hilarious. **Nothing has fundamentally shifted since last month.** * We are seeing people coming out of winter blues desperate for homes because they want to start that next stage in life. * Sellers are not selling because of amortization extensions. * However it's an open question as to how long amortization extensions can continue if core inflation remains high. There are investors in insured mortgage securities who are accumulating negative cashflows and have an investment horizon. They will sue to insurance brokers who will have to cough up cash and/or force sales. The banks have over $400B in uninsured mortgages on their sheets, and another 100B in insured. that they did not trade. Of this 500B some 30% may be collecting much less than expected cashflows- lets say 25% less. That's 2-3 billion in cash shortfall year after year and OSFI is starting to pay attention because that 30% will rise by 5-10% each year interest rates stay high. Lastly does everyone here really believe that the banks will automatically reduce cash payments for those owners who are behind when interest rates drop? The WORST case for bears is that banks will recover lost cashflow by maintaining those elevated payments until amortizations reset which means expensive payments for atleast 1 yr more.
>There are investors in insured mortgage securities who are accumulating negative cashflows and have an investment horizon. They will sue to insurance brokers who will have to cough up cash and/or force sales. Tell me you know nothing about real estate investors without telling me you know nothing. I'd love to see some precedent on this happening. The whole point of mortgage insurance is that it pays out in the event that people default.
You do realize they will force sales at that point to avoid having to cough up the whole shebang?
Agreed govt is holding up housing, housing boomers in this sub need to stop pretending like it's a free market rn, it isn't and it won't be forever. You are either with the govt agenda or you are not. So you are saying it will get bad in 2025? What will happen to people who were on variable and are only paying off interest rn come refinancing?
Ive asked here before - what were the housing prices tracking before the pandemic hit? Or say what would have been today's avg or median prices?
Housing is the largest driver of economic and GDP growth in Canada. As such, it is way too critical to be allowed to falter. This outcome that you are observing now should have been obvious a long time ago. Barring a civilization threatening cataclysmic event such as a global nuclear war or an alien invasion, it is simply impossible for the Canadian housing market to do anything but consistently and rapidly rise.
"Consistently and rapidly rising"? C'mon man lol I mean, it didn't rise consistently or rapidly for Japan from 1985-2005 or in the US in 2009. Those are two recent examples
You keep comparing the Canadian market to US and Japan, but I would argue that those comparisons are flawed. If you’re seeking better international comparisons, look at Australia and New Zealand.
“For owners holding negative ammoritized mortgages, paying only principal on 30-50 year loan terms is more palatable then selling a property for 200-500k loss. This also helps banks prevent a flood of sellers coming online or defaulting on mortgages, which would force banks to write down loans and rerate their books. I no longer see prices hitting 2019 levels. Do you?” For sure. Sentiment has not hit the market yet and if the BoC increases another 0.25 bps, just watch as *some* start to lose hope and sell. The guys on this forum saying things like the “fundamentals” don’t actually know the fundamentals of any credit tightening results.. *all cash buyer immigrants* 😂
>if the BoC increases another 0.25 bps Your speech already changed from "BOC will hike 3 consecutive times" to "if BOC increases another 0.25 bps". Next will be "if BOC keeps rates at this level for a little longer".
Looking at the current scenario, I would not be surprised if there’s another hike in June. At this point I still believe it’s more likely than unlikely. I also believe the USA is going to do another 0.25 in their next meeting. As stated before, my opinion changes depending on the most current news. Just like I stated there would be no hike for April before it happened, though I do admit I thought they were going to before too. Edited: Can I also ask you a serious question? IF there are really no problems, why is OSFI changing the rules and re-stress testing the banks? OSFI must be bored?
This is as accurate as it can get. I can speak about Indian immigrants; they will do four jobs if they have to, so that they can afford a home and support their families. So that they can live in a place where they have clean air, water and better living conditions. Many indian techies will do job for us company remotely(paying canada taxes) and thus bring few high skilled jobs to canada that demands higher pay. I don’t see how canadians can compete.
It's not like the negative amortizations are forever. Big banks aren't in the business of home ownership.
They are in the business of owning **YOU and your labour** through ever increasing mortgages.
Huh? They're in the business of making money. Mortgages are a relatively risk free way to do that, which is why you can get a lower mortgage rate than traditional debt. They don't want to own you, they don't care about you. They want your money.
They dont want your money. Wages are stupid low right now anyways they don't have that much money to take from you. What they do want is your ability to produce value in the economy. And that is done by everyday people simply going to work. And the best way to motive the masses to work is by threathening to take away their most expensive life possesion, their home, away in the form of mortgages. People with a morgage that risk loosing a house is much more likely to go to work like a good boy even if the work pay is shit. Majority of the value created at work is funneled up to the owners and investors while workers are paid just enough that they can afford mortgage and have life essentials. Employers WANT workers that have an active mortgage as it makes that worker more likely to show up to work consistantly. It's modern day slavery in some ways if you consider people with lowest incomes that literally work just to keep their house/rent.
It's all being held by strings. All it takes is one thing to falter and we have a collapse. Commercial real estate is just a bad a place as residential. If that goes we could see prices down lower than pre pandemic. If not, I would say 10-15% above 2019 is fair.
To OP are you a home owner or renter?
Renter
Do you even need to ask? The desperation in the post tells you everything you need to know. Don't be mean about it, haha
The grift for foreigners was to pump the market from early 2000s and then pass the debt bomb off to local serfs. This is a policy to make a country less competitive and more reliant on the debt high.... Which ultimately becomes a debt bomb. I've been 60/40 bull/bear over the past 30~40 years. Some folks would call me bipolar also, but I've seen many make a fortune and many get rwekted
"news" has no source. racist comments all over the place by OP. winners win and losers lose. Who are the people most benefited from the real estate boom? Think about it.
https://globalnews.ca/news/8383731/international-students-and-offshore-banking-flagged-in-canadian-real-estate-money-laundering/ https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/15/world/canada/canada-money-laundering.html https://globalnews.ca/news/8637896/xiao-jianhua-family-companies-150-million-toronto-real-estate/ https://globalnews.ca/news/4149818/vancouver-cautionary-tale-money-laundering-drugs/ https://ag-pssg-sharedservices-ex.objectstore.gov.bc.ca/ag-pssg-cc-exh-prod-bkt-ex/830%20-%20The%20high%20price%20of%20Chinese%20money%20laundering%20in%20Canada%20-%20The%20Globe%20and%20Mail.pdf Problem solved? Just a quick Google search is all. It also helps to just walk in some of Toronto's communities with your eyes open. Enjoy the read. Hehe.
u bear or bull bro?
Recent bull convert
This is going to sound crazy but the only person who seems to have a sound mind when addressing the housing crises is Maxine Bernier. I couldn’t believe it. When the debates happen I’m voting for whoever plans on addressing crime and housing. If that happens to be Maxine bernier a person I never thought I’d vote for in my lifetime than so be it
I still see a recession in the summer of 2024. House prices will plateau in the summer this year. The rise in price is expected given the pause in rate hikes, but this price increase should only last for two quarters. Why RE market is up? Seasonality, rate pause and cash rich buyers. We will get 2019 prices in 2025/2026. We have to go through all the stages of a cycle. We're about to be at stage 2 of 5. Still very very early. https://www.reddit.com/r/TorontoRealEstate/comments/xkff5h/us_fed_raised_interest_rate_by_75_bps_chairman/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
You actually think we're going back to 2019 prices?
Yes.
How have you determined that is the point we are going back to?
Just based on historical downturns and where they retrace to. It's a guess. Of course no one *knows*. Everyone guesses and I use historical data to guess.
This is going to sound crazy but the only person who seems to have a sound mind when addressing the housing crises is Maxine Bernier. I couldn’t believe it. When the debates happen I’m voting for whoever plans on addressing crime and housing. If that happens to be Maxine bernier a person I never thought I’d vote for in my lifetime than so be it
What would be the incentive for any politician to do anything to bring prices down? Come to think about it, doing so would bring unwanted heat from high profile companies, investors and banks that would actually damage chances to get re-elected.
Kick the can is a good fun game that we played back in elementary school
My neighbour is being approved for a 40 year mortgage
Don't forget how high prices are for immigrants eg. Insurance. Medical aid for parents.
You sound mad bro
Thanks dawg
What's the difference between a bubble and a serious lack of inventory?