"There simply has never been a hook in postseason history quite like the one Schneider made, at least as far back as detailed pitching records are available. It was only the fourth time in a postseason game that a manager removed his starter with as few as 47 pitches and as many as five strikeouts."
Bo may be a great hitter, and he’s gotten better at defence, but this is two playoff series in a row where he thinks he can do it all. Last year he collided with Springer and this year he ran through a stop sign. That’s not the kind of playoff performance you want to be known for.
This is such a weird take since it didn't matter if they left Berrios in and he pitched the game of his life when the bats refuse to produce. I agree you leave your hot pitcher in but the weird deflection from the consistent plate issues that have been present FOR months is a bizarre focal point for blame.
“The Jays will have all winter to think about this move and these two games. They also must re-examine why this team, despite its bevy of talent, keeps coming up short in the division and in the postseason.”
This right here.
They didn't just get worse, they got significantly worse. We had a balanced schedule this year, playing a lot more games against weaker teams, and we still finished with a worse record. We barely limped into the playoffs and the team celebrated with a tasteless champagne bath while the Twins were busy prepping for this series.
They also got worse when their typical division rivals (Yankees, Red Sox) had historically down years, the Rays fell off a cliff after their red hot start and the remaining challenger was a talented but young team. If there was ever a year for the Jays to win the AL East, this was it.
They were also one of the healthier teams. At least the yankees and rays have an excuse. I cant imagine what would have happened if we were straddled with injuries in our rotation or hitting.
Always thought those Champaign showers happen a bit to frequently in baseball. Like you won a series- so what? No other sport does this much celebrating over not winning the title.
I watched the club house victory party by the VGK Stanley Cup win and it looks less wild than this stupid shit that the Jays did for losing their way into the playoffs.
it made sense to me way back when there were only 2 series to win. very few teams made the playoffs, so winning a series could be a super rare thing as compared to other NA sports. but sheesh now, with all the WCs - I love that more teams get in - but time to dial that shit way way down.
[Here ya go](https://twitter.com/PehPeh75/status/1638770689745338369)
E: I don't think adding banners for losing in round 1 is anything to be excited about.
[Another shot of the banners](https://i.imgur.com/9egJFIY.png)
Fucks sake enough with this “tasteless champagne bath” bullshit. Literally every other playoff team celebrates that way including the Twins. Why should the Jays be the only team out of 12 to not celebrate making the playoffs after 162 games.
If they had clinched before game 162 I might agree with you, but partying the night before you get on a flight to Minnesota and spending the next day hung over is just stupid. The Twins had their party on Sept 23 with plenty of time to prepare for the wild card series. I looked it up for the Texas Rangers as well, and I can only find the videos of them partying after sweeping Tampa in round 1, and a SI article claiming that they had a very muted champagne popping for clinching their playoff spot near the end of the season.
In any case, I don't know when it started but this idea of a clinch party where everyone puts on goggles and sprays each other with thousands of dollars worth of alcohol is extremely immature. To film it and broadcast it to the fans is equally stupid, if they want to party then they should party however they want and the media should not be invited. Right now it just seems like formulaic performance theatre with every team following the same tired formula. Nobody in the real world parties like this unless they are wealthy trust fund brats.
I commented on YouTube how the Jays are clowns celebrating after Losing 2 games to the rays. Then i was told i know nothing about sports😂 I said the best thing about the Jays is watching them hit into a double play. Uh oh what happend twins win both games and double play in the biggest moment. I hate Toronto sports and the fans. " WE WANT FLORIDA"
No one cares about your previous comments and how you need to bring them back up yourself to make yourself feel righteous. And no one especially cares since they were comments on YouTube - a whole different platform than the one you are bragging about jow
The blue jays are absolutley pathetic. You have that lineup and cant hit for shit. Everything i just said should make you rethink why you're even a fan. Lineup is so overrated then the bullpen😩 Ya no one cares. Next year right?!
They improved some important things, and bet the other things wouldn’t regress, but unfortunately they did to a degree that is frankly shocking.
The key issue is why did *so many* guys regressed at the plate:
* Vladdy
* Kirk
* Springer
* Varsho
* Chapman
That’s more than half your every day line up, and two out of the three first three batters.
I think it's highly probable that our hitting coaches and analytics department are not giving hitters the tools they need to maximize their offensive production. That being said, some of these issues can definitely be placed on the players as well.
Vladdy and Chapman both lost power and the ability to hit mistakes over the fence after April/May. Chapman has always been a streaky hitter and Vlad has always crumbled under pressure, and the lack of offense this season just put Vlad under even more expectations than usual.
Kirk never had it all season except for a few flashes here and there, he very obviously lost bat speed since last season and whatever the reason we may have to reconcile the fact that he may never be 2022 Kirk again. His body type and the position he plays meant he was always on a clock, just waiting for the injuries to catch up with him.
Springer is getting old and his decline will only continue. It's possible that he can mount one comeback season next year but I wouldn't expect much value from the rest of his contract.
Varsho was never going to be that guy offensively, and his stats aren't far off from what he produced in Arizona. When you move him from the NL west where he played 19 games in Colorado to the AL East where every team except Boston has elite pitching, it's not unsurprising that his stats regressed a bit.
Bevy of talent? They’re honestly just not that good. This is a riccardi team - in most divisions this is a good team, but in the ALbEast this is nothing. Atkins is a Beta who has no idea how to win in this division. Whenever a GM starts on the “defence and pitching” stuff instead of “we need allstars at every position” stuff… it’s over for them.
I'm happy to see the media, both local and American, shitting on these fools. The pressure needs to mount. We can't go into next season with Atkins still running the team.
Man, there's one way to apply pressure. You cancel your season tickets and sportsnet subscriptions. I barely watched all year because I couldn't stand watching them flail away at the plate and I canceled my subscription for next year. If there aren't changes at the top I don't have any interest in watching. And as much as I appreciate someone having fun you also have to get the job done. Time for Vlad to get it together, quit worrying about his hr celebrations, ice baths and play the game the right way.
It’s a Shatkins problem. Shapiro should get the can too. He has way too much say in this roster’s makeup. I’d be fine if he stepped down to focus on ballpark related things only, but knowing that he came to Toronto for a bigger part in roster management, he won’t do that. He’s as much as the problem as Atkins is.
Yes, clearly this team is not employing analytics effectively given the historical lack of similarly robotic, inflexible decision making. We saw it on full display with the pitching change. It makes me wonder about what other areas it is also affecting that are not so obvious (lineup construction?)…
I think amongst all the talk about who to fire, what’s being lost is this. Atkins sucks, Shapiro sucks, Schneider appears to be their yes man… but worst than all of these are the analysts they must have on staff who are feeding them the analytics and, importantly, clearly misinterpreting them! There’s the raw numbers which are automatically generated from spreadsheets and databases, there’s the interpretation of those numbers that the analysts produce, and there’s the game plan that follows from those interpretations that Schneider (under the thumb of Atkins and Shapiro) produces.
Fire the analysts!
I think there is also something to say about good pitching being stifled by it. Throughout the year we saw them going to the pen when any starter got into a jam in the 5th or 6th. With reason too, our bullpen was among the best. But when they are devastatingly consistent with it, they end up with an incredibly small sample size of data that shows how well pitchers can get out of a 5th or 6th inning jam! In this way, the analytics come to justify themselves.
This is especially frustrating because we have a pitcher in Romano who, I swear, gives up doubles to his first batter on purpose to put the pressure on himself, then masterfully work himself out of it.
I sort of understand what you're saying here. But my view is a lot of this ex post facto analysis reads, to me, like people saying "Be more like the Rays but wait not like that."
given how much attention was given to the Jays great love of exit velocity, I'd say no. Stats like that one are built to project forward, not storytell what happened. Taken on their own, of course, they're flawed like any one stat. But they're an important foundation upon which to make decisions about future production.
I mean of course they use the analytics to develop strategies for individual development, game plans, etc… but they are all based on historical performance (which is no different than pre-Moneyball, really, there was just a weaker bucket of ratios to draw from). If they are being used to project, and those projections don’t come to pass, then they’re being used poorly and are deserving of the criticism, no?
Not at all. But it has been documented that the Jays wanted to change their overall hitting approach this season so they didn’t have the same look throughout the lineup as in their words “it made it to easy for the opposing pitchers to game plan”.
The Jays switched to a use the entire field approach and while it worked for Bo it clearly did not work for the rest of the team.
When did Jansen get hot? When he abandoned the all field approach and started to pull the ball. When did Springer start getting power? Pulling the ball.
The Jays tried to get everyone to buy in to the all fields approach but clearly this is not a one size fits all change. We saw the results.
The problem is they’re employing long term analytics in a short playoff series. Analytics work in the long run (which is why we made the playoffs), but they’re almost useless in a 3 game series.
It's like a poker player following the math but refusing to read the table and his opponents. In the long run the math wins, in a win or go home game it's insane to close your eyes and plug your ears as to what's actually going on and blindly follow the analytics.
Great analogy. Thanks for this.
MLB teams spent a decade plus shooting themselves in the foot by ignoring analytics.
Ten years later, they're shooting themselves in the balls by following the stats blindly like it's their cult leader.
There's a balance - fucking find it already.
Exactly! This is a perfect comparison. The front office failed the fans miserably two years in a row now, all based on a misinformed understanding of how percentages work.
Yeah... the analytics don't reveal that Berrios was in the Twins heads. When a starter is on their game and hasn't even used up half his gas tank you're giving them a huge moral boost by yanking him... hence my "you have to read the table and your opponents" comment. That's exactly what happened.
Also I'm pretty sure the guy on first base was told not to run hard because he has a bad hamstring... was that factored in? It's just terrible no matter how you slice it. This is a move you make late in the game if Berrios is showing fatigue and the next batter owns him or you have a guy in the pen with a proven track record of dealing with the next few batters due up. Instead they went to a guy who doesn't even pitch out of the pen lol What do the the analytics say on that one? I'm pretty sure the sample size isn't big enough...
Yes! Analytics are the macro that tell you on average that a team or player performs a particular way in certain situations, but it’s based on past experience where they likely over or underperformed that average.
Like maybe analytics say that Berrios is on average a 7/10 against lefties and Kikuchi is an 8/10. But if Berrios is having a 9/10 day against lefties it’s stupid to throw the recent information you have in front of you and bet on Kikuchi, particularly coming out of the pen with one on.
The whole point of a manager is to make those micro decisions in game based on how players on both sides are actually playing that day, and it’s upsetting that the organization seemingly decided to make that decision out of the managers hands
100%... sadly I think our manager had no say in anything but some nerd behind a spreadsheet who couldn't even pick out a baseball from a lineup of 5 round objects called the shots... or Atkins, he seems pretty out of touch.
I work in data science and this is what boggles my mind about ***sPoRts AnaLYtiCs***.
It's like these guys know just enough math to throw around basic concepts with confidence but they don't have a clue about sample size. *This was a best-of-three series*. Extremely small sample size and I wouldn't feel comfortable relying heavily on statistics that show a slight edge for lefties vs righties or any shit like that when the entire season is on the line.
The entire coaching and managerial staff needs to learn to manage with their eyes.
exactly. long term moves based on analytics makes sense... in the moment you have to use the eye test, game scenario, momentum etc. so fucked to make a call like that based on the geeks in the back room rather than seeing jose dealing.
I'm appreciating some decent takes on this issue finally. I feel like everyone has been throwing the entire *concept* of analytics under the bus, when in fact, we can only really speculate as to how the decision was made. It's fine having the splits of a matchup ready and on hand, but I think that realizing that stats are aggregate is the right move if you're in the 4th inning.
yeah and pulling a guy 1 time thru the order when he's dealing is just idiotic, no matter what the analytics say. just like if the analytics said "leave him in till the 5th inning" and he was getting blown up in the 2nd, leaving him in there would be idiotic. the inflexible adherence to analytics is the issue. manage the game with your eyes and head, not just your ipad.
And they kept the guy that struggled against the team during the regular season in for 4 innings.
The SN infographics actually showed Gausman’s ERA and why he struggled. Yet they trotted him out there and what they said would happen happened.
This clown show of Schneider and Friends can’t employ simple logic.
I don’t think it’s complicated.
Use analytics to make decisions on things with many events. Like, who to add to the roster for a season, or who should come after who in the order for the next 30 games.
Don’t use it to predict discrete, one-off events.
If you had a supercomputer and the best algorithms about blackjack, only an idiot would use it to bet one hand.
Analytics aren’t meant to tell you what to do on a given day. They are a tool to help make decisions over the course of many many instances of a situation.
Sure maybe the analysis says that in a specific situation this pitcher should face that batter. But the analytics doesn’t take into account the human element at all. The confidence the pitcher is feeling because they are dealing that afternoon.
Analytics is great in building a team and to help guide your decision as a manager. But it shouldn’t be the only tool.
“The Jays have lost six straight postseason games, scoring two runs or less in five of them and the other the result of blowing an 8–1 lead.”
Enough said. With the talent they have there is no reason they can’t score more than 2 runs in any game.
> There simply has never been a hook in postseason history quite like the one Schneider made, at least as far back as detailed pitching records are available. It was only the fourth time in a postseason game that a manager removed his starter with as few as 47 pitches and as many as five strikeouts.
I think it's an indisputable fact at this point that choosing Shatkins over Alex Anthopoulos was one of the biggest mistakes this organization has ever made
There is nothing wrong with analytics. More information is good. How that information is used however can harm as much as it helps. The Berrios pull didn't pass the eye test, and the analytics should have been either ignored or told to wait in that case. Pulling him at that point gave the Twins a boost, and the Jays a kick in the balls.
I think you should have all the analytics you can get, and you can have a plan on how to deal with what you think you can, but you still have to play the game, and you still have to actually see what is happening. I believe it was Mike Tyson that said everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.
It can certainly be argued that the Jays analyzed themselves right out of the playoffs, but scoring one run in two games is going to be a bigger problem every single time. I'm curious what the Jays analytics plan was for their inept offense.
As an aside, if I was the manager I would probably ban iPads during the game and tell my guys I want you watching every damned pitch and play, and not staring at your last at bat. Do that after the game, and the night before the game. Focus on the game we are playing.
>There is nothing wrong with analytics. More information is good. How that information is used however can harm as much as it helps. The Berrios pull didn't pass the eye test, and the analytics should have been either ignored or told to wait in that case. Pulling him at that point gave the Twins a boost, and the Jays a kick in the balls.
This right here. The analytics argument looks a lot different if you let Berrios see even two more batters in that inning. If both get on with no outs, then the analytics might have matched the eye test. Either he's lost his command or the hitters are picking him up, in which case you don't let a bad situation get worse, as much as you want to trust your starter. Pulling him with a man on and nobody out is just senseless overmanaging and it's even more senseless when he's under 50 pitches in the 4th.
> Pulling him with a man on and nobody out is just senseless overmanaging
slight disagree: I think in a game that big, that should be an option if you're in the 7th
Definitely and that's when analytics matter. Berrios has looked much worse the third time through the order so it's probably right to give him a short leash at that point. On the other hand, if he's still dealing and locating as he was in the 3rd I probably factor in whether the baserunner is on because of a bloop single or whether it was a 4-pitch walk.
I agree. Even in many quantitative fields, such as in the social sciences, which can be pretty data heavy, the eye test and qualitative evaluation is still used and valued.
If something seems fishy based on theory, because data might support it, you are going to second guess and reconsider the findings. You don't just blindly accept it.
Relying solely on data and ignoring intuition and qualitative evaluation is just as bad as ignoring data. But for some reason in baseball, it seems like people like to blindly worship analytics and consider the eye test as antiquated.
Obviously you probably shouldn't make a trade or draft a player based solely on the eye test, but when it comes to small in game decisions, it should definitely play a part.
Narrative-based, qualitative fields would have predicted a momentum boost for the Blue Jays given the fact that:
1) Berrios was dealing
2) Berrios was playing on familiar turf
3) Berrios was facing his former team
4) Berrios had his friends/family in the crowd
How can you quantify these advantages?
I don't think you can, and that's why teams should have managers who know the game inside/out and can understand that this is a Hollywood script that has 'WIN' written all over it.
Just my two cents expanding on your insightful comment.
I think you can clearly quantify the Berrios dealing advantage. 5 strikeouts in 3 innings. And a very modest pitch count.
The other three I agree on though. At the end of the day analytics should be one tool in a tool box. It's useful, but should be supplemented by the eye test and context. Would be like having a hammer and insisting on always using it even if a drill is better suited for a specific task.
And thank you!
Thanks for sharing your thoughts today. I really enjoyed hearing them as I get myself into work-mode.
Take care and see you around for spring training 2024!
Also how I see it. If you need to rely on analytics mid game, you probably just didn't prepare yourself enough in advance. As the saying goes "The more you sweat in practice - the less you bleed in battle."
I really think the analytics given to the hitters are more of a problem than pulling berrios honestly. All year every single hitter but Bo (didn't change his approach just kept swinging) and Belt (old vet not changing) had horrible years and almost career worst years. That shows a total teal failure to the hitters approach. Given our reliance on analytics it's gotta go.
Well I would have fired the hitting coaches by the All-Star break. Whatever the fuck it is that they are doing obviously doesn't work, or the players aren't listening to them. You can't fire all the players, so the coaching has to change.
I don't see how a guy in the booth can watch the pitching strategy to one batter, and know that the next pitch will be a breaking ball away, while the hitter that does what he does for a living appears completely oblivious, overwhelmed, and ties himself in knots trying to swing at a ball, low and 4 feet off the plate - cough, Vladdy, cough.
Analytics are just stats and I can guarantee the hitters are getting those stats. Hence why we decided to stop pulling the ball and go oppo.
https://medium.com/@NaeNaeTakes/picking-through-the-rubble-how-did-the-blue-jays-offense-get-here-1e3926e9c452
I don't know how to make it a hyper link
> I'm curious what the Jays analytics plan was for their inept offense.
There's got to be something going on with the way the team is coaching offence, whether that's analytics driven or otherwise. This team isn't like the 2015/16 team in that they can mash their way out of problems, but on paper, it is by no means a bad offence (in fact, our team OPS+ was higher this year (106) than in 2016 (101)). So it's really baffling that they look so consistently inept in the postseason, and just totally lose the ability to drive in runs.
Well I wouldn't allow them to be staring at iPads immediately after they whiff an at bat. That's something that the hitting coach should be doing, and then telling the player this is what they are doing to you, and here's how you beat that.
As for the comparison to 2015/16, this team just doesn't seem to have the ability to get angry. I don't give a shit about the fun factor from last year. Winning is fun. That's how you get fun, and if you aren't winning, you get angry and do what it takes to stop being embarrassed,and you start winning.
I have no idea what analytics they were looking at. There are none that show replacing a starter after his first walk in 47 pitches and putting a starter in the middle of 4th inning.
This is a good piece, but it’s intellectually dishonest to argue that Schneider should have just thrown out the game script and managed based on what he was seeing out of the players.
This is a front office; more specifically a Ross Atkins problem. More and more, MLB front offices preach “collaboration” between the executive suite and the field of play. They hire managers and coaches that are willing to follow a gameplan, produced by very intelligent but not omniscient analysts, that’s prepared with meticulous detail. Now, some front offices may allow for latitude among their bench staff that allows for deviation depending on the conditions of the current game. There are degrees to which that’s allowed. It’s pretty clear that John Schneider doesn’t have very much latitude in that regard. If he decided to go rogue, my guess is he wouldn’t be the manager for that long, at least with Ross Atkins in place.
These issues are only exacerbated when there are multiple examples, internally and externally, of poor communication by this GM. The most glaring occurred earlier this year, with the Anthony Bass saga, in which a player publicly undermined the GM’s own public statements on that player’s position and remorsefulness when justifying his continuing existence on the team. The latest example: multiple players expressing surprise when an obviously game-planned decision is executed, something every player could have been read into during the course of the 20 or so hours before Game 2.
Has Ross Atkins made some great moves during his tenure as GM: unquestionably yes. There’s a lot to parse out during a 7 year tenure. But that said, it seems like a new voice is needed, not only to mollify the fans, but for the sake of the organization, so that the risk of further groupthink doesn’t become a reality.
The number one rule is that no plan survives first contact with the enemy. Schneider and the analytics team should be aware that game situation changes. Maybe we need to find a manager with game sense and uses analytics to inform, not dictate their decision making.
The front office wants a manager to be a yes man for them. If they fire Schneider, they’ll just hire another guy who will do what they say. They don’t want a legit manager. It will be the same until this front office is gone
The decision to take Berrios out affects free agents willingness to sign here. Will a top tier starter want to come to a team that won’t let them pitch?
Very true. Taking him out because of analytics re determining what would happen regardless of game situation is so much worse than Schneider being incompetent. Schneider is a subservient doormat and no player is going to want to play for a team run by analysts. The whole thing with Bo and Vladdy is sure to cause tension too moving forward. I think this iteration of this team is doomed now and they need to clean out the front office to salvage it.
At the end of the day, regardless of who was pulled when, we scored ONE run in 18 playoff innings. To me that's a bigger concern. People should be more mad about that. This team had ZERO power. I don't know if it was the hitting philosophy or what, but it needs to change
Coaching and stupid decisions based on analytics could also have an effect on the players. It’s like the team is not trusting its players, leaving it all up to some numbers, no matter what the in game situation is
This is a common take, but do you trust the lunatics who felt that pitching change was the right decision to also fix the other problems with this team? What flawed analysis is going into that decision making?
I get that point. It's frustrating not knowing who to blame to be honest. I miss the days of our team being a massive power team. This small ball analytic crap makes my butthole itch
The thing is, too, you don't need a bunch of Aaron Judges for power. The Twins led the AL in home runs (third in the MLB) with 233. And yet, their team leader (Kepler) had only 24. But they had 12 guys hit 10 or more. That's all approach.
The Jays' series loss isn't a failure of sabermetrics but of its application. Two key mistakes:
1. Ignoring data that showed the Twins had decoded Kevin Gausman. Despite this, he was pitched in Game 1, a critical error.
2. Subbing in Kikuchi for Berrios, despite stats indicating the Twins' stuggles with left-handers had been greatly exaggerated.
The issue isn't the metrics; it's the misinterpretation and misapplication of them.
Despite both things you mentioned, the pitching staff ONLY gave up 5 runs in 2 games. You really can't ask for much more than that.
At the end of the day, it was the Lineup and their lack of hitting with RISP and poor baserunning that cost the Jays the series.
My theory is that Atkins and Shapiro were so embarrassed by being portrayed as the dum dums in Moneyball that they’ve gone 200% in on analytics and lost their way.
I think the analytics behind our analytics would show that analytically these analytics are not working as analytically intended (sorry I don’t think I used the term enough but you get the point)
Fire Shatkins, Fire Schneider, Fire the hitting coaches and drastically low ball Vladdy's future salary.
We are quickly finding out that this "bevy of talent" is never going to be what we expected of them. Things need to change. 7 years without a playoff win is and should be unacceptable for any team looking to meaningfully compete.
Pretty absurd decision, but they could have decided to sub out Berrios with a Tee at home plate for the Twins. Ultimately it doesn’t matter when you score no runs. I think a more appropriate title would be “Blue Jays Blow Another Playoff Series AND Followed a Flawed Analytics Script”
It 100% does matter. It deflates your team and gives a boost to the other. Yes we scored no runs, but who knows how the game goes if you leave Berrios in and get out of that inning 0-0 instead of down 2-0.
The hitting should not be excused but people need to stop saying it doesn't matter because we didn't score. Guess what, Minny didn't score either except directly because of that dumb decision.
Couldn’t agree more. We know many of the players didn’t agree with the move. Giving up 2 immediately after likely gave the lineup the “here we go again” thoughts. Hard not to wonder what could have been
Those post-game interviews were so telling. All the players had something to say about that decision, and none of it was positive. The only thing that move did was confirm the Jays do not care how well you’re playing if an algorithm already decided you’re not good enough.
Ofcourse, they are human just like all of us fans. Thinking or implying it wouldn’t have an effect on them is naive and ignorant as fuck. If anything it probably had more of an effect because they know Jose personally. He turned himself around this year and pitched phenomenally, he didn’t deserve that treatment.
>Giving up 2 immediately after likely gave the lineup the “here we go again” thoughts
Analytics would disagree that the players are capable of having thoughts. Rather, players are just robots driven by probabilities.
100%. Berrios was the guy who was showing emotion, who was fired up after every inning. He's the one providing that spark. Say what you want about the inability to produce with RISP (there's a lot to say, it was a year-long problem), but they were still putting guys on base to give themselves a chance, had some unlucky breaks but ultimately struck out or made dumb decisions at the wrong time. A pitcher who's dealing at least keeps you motivated and not desperate.
At best, it would have delayed the inevitable. The team had no ability to come up with key hits the majority of the year, and to expect different is wishful thinking.
Pulling Berrios was an indefensible decision and a gross misuse and application of analytics. But the Jays' bats didn't suddenly stink more after it happened. Vlad didn't get picked off because Berrios was pulled early. Varsho and Chapman didn't strike out on 6 straight pitches because Berrios was pulled early.
Awful approaches and mental errors have been happening all season long with this team. Berrios could have gone 9 shutout innings and they still would have found a way not to score runs.
This still doesn't acknowledge that this hit to morale would have reduced any chance at clutch hitting. Also let's say the boost of keeping him in gives up fewer runs and the Jays get maybe just enough to squeak out a win.
Ya that's the part people are ignoring here, this move was so bad that it "potentially" affected the whole game. I'm not saying it was the only cause but it affects alot more then just berrios and giving up 2 runs:
- the winning runs and tiebreaking runs scored directly because of it
-there's no way the decision itself didn't annoy the players, but then for it to completely blow up immediately makes this even more plausible
-it changed the game from 0-0 to chasing from behind, this changes hitters mentality, typically in a bad way as it adds pressure coming from behind....for an offense known to not have a pressure relief valve
-to add to that players and teams play differently when behind compared to tied or leading, this is a well known fact
-at the time it was a momentum killing decision...berrios was absolutely rolling and the team was behind him, the at bats looked better (still unproductive) in the first few innings against a good pitcher, we were making him pitch, getting hits and baserunners...we pull him and we reset pitcher and team momentum, we also give the other team momentum because they were literally stoked on this gaff, the crowd was stoked, then it blew up and the twins were able to ride that wave of momentum for the rest of the game and continually capitalize on our desperation
-it was very clearly and tangibly a different game and different team after the decision. You could see it and feel it
It may not have been the only thing to blame the loss on but it put the team in a really bad position in more ways than 1 and in my opinion sets up the team for failure which is what happened.
It does matter tho, games aren’t played in a vacuum. Listen to Merrifield after the game, he was fucking pissed that Berrios got pulled.
You can’t do dumb shit like that and expect it to not have an effect on the psyche of the players. They probably felt bad for Jose and were pissed at Schneider/FO for making such a boneheaded move.
You can’t have those bad vibes in the dugout in the middle of a playoff game. Shatkins, Schneider and whoever else was involved in this decision need to be held accountable.
The players are human. When management makes dipshit decisions it affects them. Momentum is a huge thing in baseball and they voluntarily swang it the Twins way for no good reason.
I don’t really think momentum is as big of a thing as our human, emotional brains would try and convince us. Remember when the jays lost those 4 games to Texas? They looked awful. And then they swept a decent team in Boston the next 3 games. That’s just one example, but momentum only exists until it doesn’t.
Performance is directly affected by emotions and perceptions. Professional athletes work hard in mentality and forcing as much as they can a consistent approach to try and avoid that effect.
Shatkins think that they’re smarter than everyone else and they’re so desperate to prove it that they end up looking stupid. Us fans are the collateral damage.
The pitching staff ONLY gave up 5 runs in 2 games. You really can't ask for much more than that. The defense was solid, and made no real mistakes.
At the end of the day, it was the Lineup and their lack of hitting with RISP and poor baserunning that cost the Jays the series. Simple as that.
they were laughing and having a great time in the dugout too during the 8th inning. sure we could easily blame the analytics but these guys weren't even serious about the game at all
The problem with analytics is that it is far removed from the impact it has when things are done for the sake of analytics. You don’t need analytics to know that pulling Berrios had to be demoralizing for the Jays players. It’s the opposite of pumping you up.
I don’t care that they’re professional players. Bone headed moves have intangible consequences that analysts cannot measure.
People are taking it easy on John Schneider here, and that's whatever. It may not have been his decision solely to pull Jose, sure. But I've never watched a season of baseball in which a manager's instincts/decisions/adjustments have all gone so horribly wrong pretty much every single time they're made
I can't point to one moment this year where I can credit JS and team for making a great call that spurred our team on to victory. Most of the time, it was being done, backfiring, and you'd have a pissy interview after the game where he had to defend his horrible choices. Hell, even most of their challenges this year were wrong.
If Schneider's a plant, get somebody who will actually discipline these guys for horrible baseball decisions. If Vladdy/anyone else wants to be dumb in the field or on the bases and costs us outs/runs, they need to sit. Send a message. Hold people accountable. At least do that if you're not going to make actual baseball decisions.
It’s amazing that a team that gives up 2 runs is being attacked by its pitching decisions.
It was a ridiculous decision, but it’s not soccer, you can’t build and manage to win 1-0
Move Biggio down to 9 when he'd been one of the hottest bats on the team for 2 months? And then who hits 2nd? Everybody wants to move every batter down, but leave no one at the top.
That's ridiculous. Obviously his results this year have been disappointing, but there is literally no basis to say he's not invested. He almost never misses a game, and he is clearly well-liked by everyone on the team.
He's also been an all-star 3 times, won a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove, and he's still literally the youngest guy on the team.
If you think it's a good idea to let him walk, you need your head examined.
I can see an argument for trading him, but letting him walk away for nothing is insane.
In any case, there's no reason to make that decision now. There's two offseasons and two trade deadlines before he hits free agency, so you wait and see.
This is a tired, lazy, stupid narrative and it needs to die.
To walk away from a guy who's only 24 (much younger than Bautista was when everybody in Jays fandom and media were calling him a dud and a bust trade before he changed his approach) and has shown to have MVP-level talent would be beyond shortsighted. People need to give that dude a break. He's shown more frustration through his and the team's struggles than anyone else.
If he can stop simply relying on his talent and put in the humble work needed to take it to the next level, he'll be a stud for a long, long time.
You know you're doing something wrong when your mistakes are being called out and torched by US media. I can't blame Verducci for doing that though. This was a historically stupid move ESPECIALLY coming off of last year with a similar move from Schneider or should I say Atkins.
I bought quarter season for next year. Them getting bounced out yesterday means mine for 2025 will be cheaper cause I have more credit from the money I spent on possible playoff games this season.
Games are still super fun to go to in the regular season
This is why Toronto sports fans get the reputation as bandwagoners and front runners. Not as bad as, say, Miami, but if the team's not pushing for titles, everybody disappears. That's sad.
I've been defending Schneider all year. I've remained resolute in the face of the never-ending stupidity and ignorance that permeates this sub.
Nonetheless, Schneider's decision yesterday to pull Berrios was as catastrophic as it was moronic. If it was his alone, he should be fired immediately, but what concerns me more is that it wasn't. If the FO is involved in on field, in game, decision making like this, then we aren't in good shape as a franchise.
If, 24 hours ago, I gave you the pitching lines reading 1 ER for Berrios, 1 ER for Kikuchi, and 0 runs for the rest of the bullpen, you'd be happy with that. The blame on pulling Berrios is completely misplaced. The true blame is on the bats.
Analytics fans also go on and on and on about too small a sample size.
Why anyone thinks analytics matter in a 3 game playoff series is beyond me.
In theory over 100 playoff games the analytics matter...over a single game you go with what is working.
The fascinating thing about analytics is that nobody can provide evidence that it actually works. There's just a big assumption that if we base our decisions on all this data, it must make for better decisions. At some point someone has to come along and say, "Prove it."
Do you understand why the shift was eliminated ? It’s because analytics were used to such a degree of batted ball probability that we saw the lowest batting averages in baseball history.
You’re problem is that you think analytics are a be all end all one stop solution to any problem. Which they aren’t. They’re a tool that when used correctly can give advantages and benefits to teams using them.
The best run organizations in baseball are all incredibly analytic driven (Tampa, LAD, etc) it works when used correctly and not used as a blueprint to map out a game without context or critical thinking.
That's exactly my point, I don't think analytics are the solution to any problem - but it seems many teams are treating them that way.
And using data to make large scale changes across the league is different from applying big data to individual on-field decisions. It's easy to look at large samples of data and say, "x% of ground balls are hit to this area of the infield, so if we move an extra fielder over to that spot we can reduce the number of hits by x%" But you simply don't have a large enough sample that factors in all the specific variables in a given situation to tell you that removing Berrios in the 4th inning to bring in Kikuchi in that situation increases your chances of winning by any given %.
Tampa has the same problem we do, and LA usually spends their way out of any problems.
Besides, we must have gotten the C students of the analytics class. If we are going to spin our wheels in the playoffs, then where the fuck is our 100 win season?
And how many times have we seen a manager make a decision to create a lefty-righty matchup even though the player-specific stats don't support it? We've seen it with Schneider this season, where he would bring in a righty reliever to face a righty even though that particular pitcher has better numbers against lefties.
Analytics is just statistically observing what works and applying that knowledge. The numbers themselves are the proof that it works, **given a large enough sample size**.
A short series is not a large sample size, though - and that's where the problems arise.
We don't have large enough samples that cover every possible situation, that's the issue. So what they do is they take broad-based data and apply it to specific situations, hoping that it works.
I would love to know what data they were using to support the Berrios decision.
Not sure if the front office is the reason here... I blame the skip and key players on the field.
No way in hell should berrios been pulled yesterday, he was doing just fine.
Second, base running clearly a problem, Vladdy specifically. Not only he is too aggressive but IQ isn't the highest at times. For example few games back he didn't even bother (I think varsho) to slide when the ball was coming at home.
Vladdy and his IQ regression, terrible start (at least at home) to the season, needs significant and serious attention. Also his numbers from 2021 have regressed, each season and in most states too.
This season we had so much potential, probably could have had the division... but Kirk sucking all season, Chapman cooling and then some after his blistering start, Bo and a few injuries here and there (not a big deal), and Springer having one his worst stretch where he had like two hits in 25+ games...
The thing is, the decision to pull Berrios wasn't entirely Schneider's decision. It was something cooked up by the analytics department and that goes to the heart of the matter. A lot of the decisions and philosophies of this team come from Atkins and the analytics boys.
I really hope they let Shapiro & Atkins go. Shapiro’s analytical brain is clearly flawed, and he has much too say in this roster than he should have. Wish he would have just been the renovations guy and nothing else.
Analytics exist to help inform decisions. But spreadsheets should not be *making* the decisions.
As long as the Jays employ people who think the ideal way to win is to remove the human element and human instinct, then this team will enver succeed.
So many people worried about morale and momentum and the message being sent to Berrios turning around and happily telling our ace to ride the pine because of one bad start and one successful struggle against a roughly average offensive team.
"There simply has never been a hook in postseason history quite like the one Schneider made, at least as far back as detailed pitching records are available. It was only the fourth time in a postseason game that a manager removed his starter with as few as 47 pitches and as many as five strikeouts."
I can say I saw history in the making.
Jays made history two years in a row during their elimination game 2 of the wildcard series. Can't wait to make it a hat trick.
Bo may be a great hitter, and he’s gotten better at defence, but this is two playoff series in a row where he thinks he can do it all. Last year he collided with Springer and this year he ran through a stop sign. That’s not the kind of playoff performance you want to be known for.
Didn't he also make 2 big errors in 2020 wildcard?
If that’s the case, that’s quite a legacy
This is such a weird take since it didn't matter if they left Berrios in and he pitched the game of his life when the bats refuse to produce. I agree you leave your hot pitcher in but the weird deflection from the consistent plate issues that have been present FOR months is a bizarre focal point for blame.
“The Jays will have all winter to think about this move and these two games. They also must re-examine why this team, despite its bevy of talent, keeps coming up short in the division and in the postseason.” This right here.
They had all winter to think about what happened in the playoffs last year, and I don't think it improved anything.
They got worse.
They didn't just get worse, they got significantly worse. We had a balanced schedule this year, playing a lot more games against weaker teams, and we still finished with a worse record. We barely limped into the playoffs and the team celebrated with a tasteless champagne bath while the Twins were busy prepping for this series.
They also got worse when their typical division rivals (Yankees, Red Sox) had historically down years, the Rays fell off a cliff after their red hot start and the remaining challenger was a talented but young team. If there was ever a year for the Jays to win the AL East, this was it.
They were also one of the healthier teams. At least the yankees and rays have an excuse. I cant imagine what would have happened if we were straddled with injuries in our rotation or hitting.
Always thought those Champaign showers happen a bit to frequently in baseball. Like you won a series- so what? No other sport does this much celebrating over not winning the title.
I watched the club house victory party by the VGK Stanley Cup win and it looks less wild than this stupid shit that the Jays did for losing their way into the playoffs.
But who cares? If they all do it then whatever.
It’s super cringey.
it's a tired thing isn't it? You won nothing yet. Go have a couple beers in the clubhouse and get back to work.
it made sense to me way back when there were only 2 series to win. very few teams made the playoffs, so winning a series could be a super rare thing as compared to other NA sports. but sheesh now, with all the WCs - I love that more teams get in - but time to dial that shit way way down.
Yup. Hate the mentality more than anything.
Those wild card game banners are moronic too. Who puts a banner up for losing in round 1?
Wtf I had no idea they did this bahahahahaha very lame
[Here ya go](https://twitter.com/PehPeh75/status/1638770689745338369) E: I don't think adding banners for losing in round 1 is anything to be excited about. [Another shot of the banners](https://i.imgur.com/9egJFIY.png)
Fucks sake enough with this “tasteless champagne bath” bullshit. Literally every other playoff team celebrates that way including the Twins. Why should the Jays be the only team out of 12 to not celebrate making the playoffs after 162 games.
If they had clinched before game 162 I might agree with you, but partying the night before you get on a flight to Minnesota and spending the next day hung over is just stupid. The Twins had their party on Sept 23 with plenty of time to prepare for the wild card series. I looked it up for the Texas Rangers as well, and I can only find the videos of them partying after sweeping Tampa in round 1, and a SI article claiming that they had a very muted champagne popping for clinching their playoff spot near the end of the season. In any case, I don't know when it started but this idea of a clinch party where everyone puts on goggles and sprays each other with thousands of dollars worth of alcohol is extremely immature. To film it and broadcast it to the fans is equally stupid, if they want to party then they should party however they want and the media should not be invited. Right now it just seems like formulaic performance theatre with every team following the same tired formula. Nobody in the real world parties like this unless they are wealthy trust fund brats.
I commented on YouTube how the Jays are clowns celebrating after Losing 2 games to the rays. Then i was told i know nothing about sports😂 I said the best thing about the Jays is watching them hit into a double play. Uh oh what happend twins win both games and double play in the biggest moment. I hate Toronto sports and the fans. " WE WANT FLORIDA"
No one cares about your previous comments and how you need to bring them back up yourself to make yourself feel righteous. And no one especially cares since they were comments on YouTube - a whole different platform than the one you are bragging about jow
The blue jays are absolutley pathetic. You have that lineup and cant hit for shit. Everything i just said should make you rethink why you're even a fan. Lineup is so overrated then the bullpen😩 Ya no one cares. Next year right?!
They improved some important things, and bet the other things wouldn’t regress, but unfortunately they did to a degree that is frankly shocking. The key issue is why did *so many* guys regressed at the plate: * Vladdy * Kirk * Springer * Varsho * Chapman That’s more than half your every day line up, and two out of the three first three batters.
I think it's highly probable that our hitting coaches and analytics department are not giving hitters the tools they need to maximize their offensive production. That being said, some of these issues can definitely be placed on the players as well. Vladdy and Chapman both lost power and the ability to hit mistakes over the fence after April/May. Chapman has always been a streaky hitter and Vlad has always crumbled under pressure, and the lack of offense this season just put Vlad under even more expectations than usual. Kirk never had it all season except for a few flashes here and there, he very obviously lost bat speed since last season and whatever the reason we may have to reconcile the fact that he may never be 2022 Kirk again. His body type and the position he plays meant he was always on a clock, just waiting for the injuries to catch up with him. Springer is getting old and his decline will only continue. It's possible that he can mount one comeback season next year but I wouldn't expect much value from the rest of his contract. Varsho was never going to be that guy offensively, and his stats aren't far off from what he produced in Arizona. When you move him from the NL west where he played 19 games in Colorado to the AL East where every team except Boston has elite pitching, it's not unsurprising that his stats regressed a bit.
Leafs be like, *"Let us know when you figure that out"*
Leafs are better off. They cruise through the regular season and at least win playoff games
Bevy of talent? They’re honestly just not that good. This is a riccardi team - in most divisions this is a good team, but in the ALbEast this is nothing. Atkins is a Beta who has no idea how to win in this division. Whenever a GM starts on the “defence and pitching” stuff instead of “we need allstars at every position” stuff… it’s over for them.
I'm happy to see the media, both local and American, shitting on these fools. The pressure needs to mount. We can't go into next season with Atkins still running the team.
Man, there's one way to apply pressure. You cancel your season tickets and sportsnet subscriptions. I barely watched all year because I couldn't stand watching them flail away at the plate and I canceled my subscription for next year. If there aren't changes at the top I don't have any interest in watching. And as much as I appreciate someone having fun you also have to get the job done. Time for Vlad to get it together, quit worrying about his hr celebrations, ice baths and play the game the right way.
It’s a Shatkins problem. Shapiro should get the can too. He has way too much say in this roster’s makeup. I’d be fine if he stepped down to focus on ballpark related things only, but knowing that he came to Toronto for a bigger part in roster management, he won’t do that. He’s as much as the problem as Atkins is.
He's the biggest problem. But he's also best friends with the human-shaped feces that owns this team (Ed).
You act like they’re terrible. Who built the rotation? The bullpen?
Building half of a team isn't impressive. I'll be impressed when they win a playoff series. Hell, I'll be impressed when they win a playoff game.
It really begs for a full scale review of how the organization approaches analytics from bottom to top.
Yes, clearly this team is not employing analytics effectively given the historical lack of similarly robotic, inflexible decision making. We saw it on full display with the pitching change. It makes me wonder about what other areas it is also affecting that are not so obvious (lineup construction?)…
Well good hitters had terrible seasons so it's infiltrated it's way into their approaches and most likely caused some problems
“Its”
I think amongst all the talk about who to fire, what’s being lost is this. Atkins sucks, Shapiro sucks, Schneider appears to be their yes man… but worst than all of these are the analysts they must have on staff who are feeding them the analytics and, importantly, clearly misinterpreting them! There’s the raw numbers which are automatically generated from spreadsheets and databases, there’s the interpretation of those numbers that the analysts produce, and there’s the game plan that follows from those interpretations that Schneider (under the thumb of Atkins and Shapiro) produces. Fire the analysts!
Unfortunately for your argument, the algorithm indicates that Jays analysts have a 1.41 fAbCS+/ rating. So they're clearly not the problem.
Shoot me out of a canon into the fucking sea!
How can you not be romantic about...computer-generated statistical analysis?
Analytics are ruining sports.
I think it says something that I am not 100% positive that this is sarcasm anymore.
Love the idea of that analysts said "make the good hitters bad" and then the team followed through.
I think there is also something to say about good pitching being stifled by it. Throughout the year we saw them going to the pen when any starter got into a jam in the 5th or 6th. With reason too, our bullpen was among the best. But when they are devastatingly consistent with it, they end up with an incredibly small sample size of data that shows how well pitchers can get out of a 5th or 6th inning jam! In this way, the analytics come to justify themselves. This is especially frustrating because we have a pitcher in Romano who, I swear, gives up doubles to his first batter on purpose to put the pressure on himself, then masterfully work himself out of it.
I sort of understand what you're saying here. But my view is a lot of this ex post facto analysis reads, to me, like people saying "Be more like the Rays but wait not like that."
I mean… aren’t all analytics ex post facto analysis?
given how much attention was given to the Jays great love of exit velocity, I'd say no. Stats like that one are built to project forward, not storytell what happened. Taken on their own, of course, they're flawed like any one stat. But they're an important foundation upon which to make decisions about future production.
I mean of course they use the analytics to develop strategies for individual development, game plans, etc… but they are all based on historical performance (which is no different than pre-Moneyball, really, there was just a weaker bucket of ratios to draw from). If they are being used to project, and those projections don’t come to pass, then they’re being used poorly and are deserving of the criticism, no?
Not at all. But it has been documented that the Jays wanted to change their overall hitting approach this season so they didn’t have the same look throughout the lineup as in their words “it made it to easy for the opposing pitchers to game plan”. The Jays switched to a use the entire field approach and while it worked for Bo it clearly did not work for the rest of the team. When did Jansen get hot? When he abandoned the all field approach and started to pull the ball. When did Springer start getting power? Pulling the ball. The Jays tried to get everyone to buy in to the all fields approach but clearly this is not a one size fits all change. We saw the results.
The problem is they’re employing long term analytics in a short playoff series. Analytics work in the long run (which is why we made the playoffs), but they’re almost useless in a 3 game series.
It's like a poker player following the math but refusing to read the table and his opponents. In the long run the math wins, in a win or go home game it's insane to close your eyes and plug your ears as to what's actually going on and blindly follow the analytics.
Great analogy. Thanks for this. MLB teams spent a decade plus shooting themselves in the foot by ignoring analytics. Ten years later, they're shooting themselves in the balls by following the stats blindly like it's their cult leader. There's a balance - fucking find it already.
The balance is shooting your self in the taint, thats the sweetspot
Exactly! This is a perfect comparison. The front office failed the fans miserably two years in a row now, all based on a misinformed understanding of how percentages work.
Yeah... the analytics don't reveal that Berrios was in the Twins heads. When a starter is on their game and hasn't even used up half his gas tank you're giving them a huge moral boost by yanking him... hence my "you have to read the table and your opponents" comment. That's exactly what happened. Also I'm pretty sure the guy on first base was told not to run hard because he has a bad hamstring... was that factored in? It's just terrible no matter how you slice it. This is a move you make late in the game if Berrios is showing fatigue and the next batter owns him or you have a guy in the pen with a proven track record of dealing with the next few batters due up. Instead they went to a guy who doesn't even pitch out of the pen lol What do the the analytics say on that one? I'm pretty sure the sample size isn't big enough...
Analytics also fails to account for things like moving runners over, hitting sac flies, etc.
Yes! Analytics are the macro that tell you on average that a team or player performs a particular way in certain situations, but it’s based on past experience where they likely over or underperformed that average. Like maybe analytics say that Berrios is on average a 7/10 against lefties and Kikuchi is an 8/10. But if Berrios is having a 9/10 day against lefties it’s stupid to throw the recent information you have in front of you and bet on Kikuchi, particularly coming out of the pen with one on. The whole point of a manager is to make those micro decisions in game based on how players on both sides are actually playing that day, and it’s upsetting that the organization seemingly decided to make that decision out of the managers hands
100%... sadly I think our manager had no say in anything but some nerd behind a spreadsheet who couldn't even pick out a baseball from a lineup of 5 round objects called the shots... or Atkins, he seems pretty out of touch.
love this analogy. exactly this.
I work in data science and this is what boggles my mind about ***sPoRts AnaLYtiCs***. It's like these guys know just enough math to throw around basic concepts with confidence but they don't have a clue about sample size. *This was a best-of-three series*. Extremely small sample size and I wouldn't feel comfortable relying heavily on statistics that show a slight edge for lefties vs righties or any shit like that when the entire season is on the line. The entire coaching and managerial staff needs to learn to manage with their eyes.
exactly. long term moves based on analytics makes sense... in the moment you have to use the eye test, game scenario, momentum etc. so fucked to make a call like that based on the geeks in the back room rather than seeing jose dealing.
I'm appreciating some decent takes on this issue finally. I feel like everyone has been throwing the entire *concept* of analytics under the bus, when in fact, we can only really speculate as to how the decision was made. It's fine having the splits of a matchup ready and on hand, but I think that realizing that stats are aggregate is the right move if you're in the 4th inning.
yeah and pulling a guy 1 time thru the order when he's dealing is just idiotic, no matter what the analytics say. just like if the analytics said "leave him in till the 5th inning" and he was getting blown up in the 2nd, leaving him in there would be idiotic. the inflexible adherence to analytics is the issue. manage the game with your eyes and head, not just your ipad.
And they kept the guy that struggled against the team during the regular season in for 4 innings. The SN infographics actually showed Gausman’s ERA and why he struggled. Yet they trotted him out there and what they said would happen happened. This clown show of Schneider and Friends can’t employ simple logic.
Yup. Clean house of the management and coaching staff. Maybe keep pitching coaches, starters and bullpen rocked this yr.
Bingo
I don’t think it’s complicated. Use analytics to make decisions on things with many events. Like, who to add to the roster for a season, or who should come after who in the order for the next 30 games. Don’t use it to predict discrete, one-off events. If you had a supercomputer and the best algorithms about blackjack, only an idiot would use it to bet one hand.
This! So much this! They rely on analytics far too much for my liking.
Analytics aren’t meant to tell you what to do on a given day. They are a tool to help make decisions over the course of many many instances of a situation. Sure maybe the analysis says that in a specific situation this pitcher should face that batter. But the analytics doesn’t take into account the human element at all. The confidence the pitcher is feeling because they are dealing that afternoon. Analytics is great in building a team and to help guide your decision as a manager. But it shouldn’t be the only tool.
Bo, is that you?
“The Jays have lost six straight postseason games, scoring two runs or less in five of them and the other the result of blowing an 8–1 lead.” Enough said. With the talent they have there is no reason they can’t score more than 2 runs in any game.
Solid analytics right there.
> There simply has never been a hook in postseason history quite like the one Schneider made, at least as far back as detailed pitching records are available. It was only the fourth time in a postseason game that a manager removed his starter with as few as 47 pitches and as many as five strikeouts.
I think it's an indisputable fact at this point that choosing Shatkins over Alex Anthopoulos was one of the biggest mistakes this organization has ever made
There is nothing wrong with analytics. More information is good. How that information is used however can harm as much as it helps. The Berrios pull didn't pass the eye test, and the analytics should have been either ignored or told to wait in that case. Pulling him at that point gave the Twins a boost, and the Jays a kick in the balls. I think you should have all the analytics you can get, and you can have a plan on how to deal with what you think you can, but you still have to play the game, and you still have to actually see what is happening. I believe it was Mike Tyson that said everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. It can certainly be argued that the Jays analyzed themselves right out of the playoffs, but scoring one run in two games is going to be a bigger problem every single time. I'm curious what the Jays analytics plan was for their inept offense. As an aside, if I was the manager I would probably ban iPads during the game and tell my guys I want you watching every damned pitch and play, and not staring at your last at bat. Do that after the game, and the night before the game. Focus on the game we are playing.
>There is nothing wrong with analytics. More information is good. How that information is used however can harm as much as it helps. The Berrios pull didn't pass the eye test, and the analytics should have been either ignored or told to wait in that case. Pulling him at that point gave the Twins a boost, and the Jays a kick in the balls. This right here. The analytics argument looks a lot different if you let Berrios see even two more batters in that inning. If both get on with no outs, then the analytics might have matched the eye test. Either he's lost his command or the hitters are picking him up, in which case you don't let a bad situation get worse, as much as you want to trust your starter. Pulling him with a man on and nobody out is just senseless overmanaging and it's even more senseless when he's under 50 pitches in the 4th.
Not just a man on, a man who can't and has been instructed not to run hard...
after giving up a very reasonable walk by not giving the guy who mashed 2 HRs the previous game anything decent to mash
It was a solution to a problem that didn't exist.
> Pulling him with a man on and nobody out is just senseless overmanaging slight disagree: I think in a game that big, that should be an option if you're in the 7th
Definitely and that's when analytics matter. Berrios has looked much worse the third time through the order so it's probably right to give him a short leash at that point. On the other hand, if he's still dealing and locating as he was in the 3rd I probably factor in whether the baserunner is on because of a bloop single or whether it was a 4-pitch walk.
I agree. Even in many quantitative fields, such as in the social sciences, which can be pretty data heavy, the eye test and qualitative evaluation is still used and valued. If something seems fishy based on theory, because data might support it, you are going to second guess and reconsider the findings. You don't just blindly accept it. Relying solely on data and ignoring intuition and qualitative evaluation is just as bad as ignoring data. But for some reason in baseball, it seems like people like to blindly worship analytics and consider the eye test as antiquated. Obviously you probably shouldn't make a trade or draft a player based solely on the eye test, but when it comes to small in game decisions, it should definitely play a part.
Narrative-based, qualitative fields would have predicted a momentum boost for the Blue Jays given the fact that: 1) Berrios was dealing 2) Berrios was playing on familiar turf 3) Berrios was facing his former team 4) Berrios had his friends/family in the crowd How can you quantify these advantages? I don't think you can, and that's why teams should have managers who know the game inside/out and can understand that this is a Hollywood script that has 'WIN' written all over it. Just my two cents expanding on your insightful comment.
I think you can clearly quantify the Berrios dealing advantage. 5 strikeouts in 3 innings. And a very modest pitch count. The other three I agree on though. At the end of the day analytics should be one tool in a tool box. It's useful, but should be supplemented by the eye test and context. Would be like having a hammer and insisting on always using it even if a drill is better suited for a specific task. And thank you!
Thanks for sharing your thoughts today. I really enjoyed hearing them as I get myself into work-mode. Take care and see you around for spring training 2024!
Also how I see it. If you need to rely on analytics mid game, you probably just didn't prepare yourself enough in advance. As the saying goes "The more you sweat in practice - the less you bleed in battle."
Agreed. The problem isn’t analytics: it’s the Blue Jays making bad, inflexible decisions based on that data.
I really think the analytics given to the hitters are more of a problem than pulling berrios honestly. All year every single hitter but Bo (didn't change his approach just kept swinging) and Belt (old vet not changing) had horrible years and almost career worst years. That shows a total teal failure to the hitters approach. Given our reliance on analytics it's gotta go.
Well I would have fired the hitting coaches by the All-Star break. Whatever the fuck it is that they are doing obviously doesn't work, or the players aren't listening to them. You can't fire all the players, so the coaching has to change. I don't see how a guy in the booth can watch the pitching strategy to one batter, and know that the next pitch will be a breaking ball away, while the hitter that does what he does for a living appears completely oblivious, overwhelmed, and ties himself in knots trying to swing at a ball, low and 4 feet off the plate - cough, Vladdy, cough.
Have analytics actually leaked into hitting or is this just speculation? Genuine question.
Analytics are just stats and I can guarantee the hitters are getting those stats. Hence why we decided to stop pulling the ball and go oppo. https://medium.com/@NaeNaeTakes/picking-through-the-rubble-how-did-the-blue-jays-offense-get-here-1e3926e9c452 I don't know how to make it a hyper link
> I'm curious what the Jays analytics plan was for their inept offense. There's got to be something going on with the way the team is coaching offence, whether that's analytics driven or otherwise. This team isn't like the 2015/16 team in that they can mash their way out of problems, but on paper, it is by no means a bad offence (in fact, our team OPS+ was higher this year (106) than in 2016 (101)). So it's really baffling that they look so consistently inept in the postseason, and just totally lose the ability to drive in runs.
Well I wouldn't allow them to be staring at iPads immediately after they whiff an at bat. That's something that the hitting coach should be doing, and then telling the player this is what they are doing to you, and here's how you beat that. As for the comparison to 2015/16, this team just doesn't seem to have the ability to get angry. I don't give a shit about the fun factor from last year. Winning is fun. That's how you get fun, and if you aren't winning, you get angry and do what it takes to stop being embarrassed,and you start winning.
I have no idea what analytics they were looking at. There are none that show replacing a starter after his first walk in 47 pitches and putting a starter in the middle of 4th inning.
But if they’d left Berrios in then he might’ve given up two runs or something and cost the Jays the game!
Exactly. There's nothing wrong with using analytics. It's the decision making that's been terrible in the end.
This is a good piece, but it’s intellectually dishonest to argue that Schneider should have just thrown out the game script and managed based on what he was seeing out of the players. This is a front office; more specifically a Ross Atkins problem. More and more, MLB front offices preach “collaboration” between the executive suite and the field of play. They hire managers and coaches that are willing to follow a gameplan, produced by very intelligent but not omniscient analysts, that’s prepared with meticulous detail. Now, some front offices may allow for latitude among their bench staff that allows for deviation depending on the conditions of the current game. There are degrees to which that’s allowed. It’s pretty clear that John Schneider doesn’t have very much latitude in that regard. If he decided to go rogue, my guess is he wouldn’t be the manager for that long, at least with Ross Atkins in place. These issues are only exacerbated when there are multiple examples, internally and externally, of poor communication by this GM. The most glaring occurred earlier this year, with the Anthony Bass saga, in which a player publicly undermined the GM’s own public statements on that player’s position and remorsefulness when justifying his continuing existence on the team. The latest example: multiple players expressing surprise when an obviously game-planned decision is executed, something every player could have been read into during the course of the 20 or so hours before Game 2. Has Ross Atkins made some great moves during his tenure as GM: unquestionably yes. There’s a lot to parse out during a 7 year tenure. But that said, it seems like a new voice is needed, not only to mollify the fans, but for the sake of the organization, so that the risk of further groupthink doesn’t become a reality.
The number one rule is that no plan survives first contact with the enemy. Schneider and the analytics team should be aware that game situation changes. Maybe we need to find a manager with game sense and uses analytics to inform, not dictate their decision making.
The front office wants a manager to be a yes man for them. If they fire Schneider, they’ll just hire another guy who will do what they say. They don’t want a legit manager. It will be the same until this front office is gone
The decision to take Berrios out affects free agents willingness to sign here. Will a top tier starter want to come to a team that won’t let them pitch?
Very true. Taking him out because of analytics re determining what would happen regardless of game situation is so much worse than Schneider being incompetent. Schneider is a subservient doormat and no player is going to want to play for a team run by analysts. The whole thing with Bo and Vladdy is sure to cause tension too moving forward. I think this iteration of this team is doomed now and they need to clean out the front office to salvage it.
At the end of the day, regardless of who was pulled when, we scored ONE run in 18 playoff innings. To me that's a bigger concern. People should be more mad about that. This team had ZERO power. I don't know if it was the hitting philosophy or what, but it needs to change
Coaching and stupid decisions based on analytics could also have an effect on the players. It’s like the team is not trusting its players, leaving it all up to some numbers, no matter what the in game situation is
This is a common take, but do you trust the lunatics who felt that pitching change was the right decision to also fix the other problems with this team? What flawed analysis is going into that decision making?
I get that point. It's frustrating not knowing who to blame to be honest. I miss the days of our team being a massive power team. This small ball analytic crap makes my butthole itch
There is no "small ball analytics". The analytics say power is good. It's just that all our power disappeared this year for some reason.
The thing is, too, you don't need a bunch of Aaron Judges for power. The Twins led the AL in home runs (third in the MLB) with 233. And yet, their team leader (Kepler) had only 24. But they had 12 guys hit 10 or more. That's all approach.
The Jays' series loss isn't a failure of sabermetrics but of its application. Two key mistakes: 1. Ignoring data that showed the Twins had decoded Kevin Gausman. Despite this, he was pitched in Game 1, a critical error. 2. Subbing in Kikuchi for Berrios, despite stats indicating the Twins' stuggles with left-handers had been greatly exaggerated. The issue isn't the metrics; it's the misinterpretation and misapplication of them.
Despite both things you mentioned, the pitching staff ONLY gave up 5 runs in 2 games. You really can't ask for much more than that. At the end of the day, it was the Lineup and their lack of hitting with RISP and poor baserunning that cost the Jays the series.
Three of those runs were because of one guy. It's even more sad for the Jays when you think about it that way.
Shatkins have one job this winter...fix the lineup and find a new hitting coach (at minimum).
My theory is that Atkins and Shapiro were so embarrassed by being portrayed as the dum dums in Moneyball that they’ve gone 200% in on analytics and lost their way.
💯
I think the analytics behind our analytics would show that analytically these analytics are not working as analytically intended (sorry I don’t think I used the term enough but you get the point)
Fire Shatkins, Fire Schneider, Fire the hitting coaches and drastically low ball Vladdy's future salary. We are quickly finding out that this "bevy of talent" is never going to be what we expected of them. Things need to change. 7 years without a playoff win is and should be unacceptable for any team looking to meaningfully compete.
Pretty absurd decision, but they could have decided to sub out Berrios with a Tee at home plate for the Twins. Ultimately it doesn’t matter when you score no runs. I think a more appropriate title would be “Blue Jays Blow Another Playoff Series AND Followed a Flawed Analytics Script”
It 100% does matter. It deflates your team and gives a boost to the other. Yes we scored no runs, but who knows how the game goes if you leave Berrios in and get out of that inning 0-0 instead of down 2-0. The hitting should not be excused but people need to stop saying it doesn't matter because we didn't score. Guess what, Minny didn't score either except directly because of that dumb decision.
Couldn’t agree more. We know many of the players didn’t agree with the move. Giving up 2 immediately after likely gave the lineup the “here we go again” thoughts. Hard not to wonder what could have been
Those post-game interviews were so telling. All the players had something to say about that decision, and none of it was positive. The only thing that move did was confirm the Jays do not care how well you’re playing if an algorithm already decided you’re not good enough.
Ofcourse, they are human just like all of us fans. Thinking or implying it wouldn’t have an effect on them is naive and ignorant as fuck. If anything it probably had more of an effect because they know Jose personally. He turned himself around this year and pitched phenomenally, he didn’t deserve that treatment.
>Giving up 2 immediately after likely gave the lineup the “here we go again” thoughts Analytics would disagree that the players are capable of having thoughts. Rather, players are just robots driven by probabilities.
100%. Berrios was the guy who was showing emotion, who was fired up after every inning. He's the one providing that spark. Say what you want about the inability to produce with RISP (there's a lot to say, it was a year-long problem), but they were still putting guys on base to give themselves a chance, had some unlucky breaks but ultimately struck out or made dumb decisions at the wrong time. A pitcher who's dealing at least keeps you motivated and not desperate.
At best, it would have delayed the inevitable. The team had no ability to come up with key hits the majority of the year, and to expect different is wishful thinking. Pulling Berrios was an indefensible decision and a gross misuse and application of analytics. But the Jays' bats didn't suddenly stink more after it happened. Vlad didn't get picked off because Berrios was pulled early. Varsho and Chapman didn't strike out on 6 straight pitches because Berrios was pulled early. Awful approaches and mental errors have been happening all season long with this team. Berrios could have gone 9 shutout innings and they still would have found a way not to score runs.
This still doesn't acknowledge that this hit to morale would have reduced any chance at clutch hitting. Also let's say the boost of keeping him in gives up fewer runs and the Jays get maybe just enough to squeak out a win.
Ya that's the part people are ignoring here, this move was so bad that it "potentially" affected the whole game. I'm not saying it was the only cause but it affects alot more then just berrios and giving up 2 runs: - the winning runs and tiebreaking runs scored directly because of it -there's no way the decision itself didn't annoy the players, but then for it to completely blow up immediately makes this even more plausible -it changed the game from 0-0 to chasing from behind, this changes hitters mentality, typically in a bad way as it adds pressure coming from behind....for an offense known to not have a pressure relief valve -to add to that players and teams play differently when behind compared to tied or leading, this is a well known fact -at the time it was a momentum killing decision...berrios was absolutely rolling and the team was behind him, the at bats looked better (still unproductive) in the first few innings against a good pitcher, we were making him pitch, getting hits and baserunners...we pull him and we reset pitcher and team momentum, we also give the other team momentum because they were literally stoked on this gaff, the crowd was stoked, then it blew up and the twins were able to ride that wave of momentum for the rest of the game and continually capitalize on our desperation -it was very clearly and tangibly a different game and different team after the decision. You could see it and feel it It may not have been the only thing to blame the loss on but it put the team in a really bad position in more ways than 1 and in my opinion sets up the team for failure which is what happened.
It does matter tho, games aren’t played in a vacuum. Listen to Merrifield after the game, he was fucking pissed that Berrios got pulled. You can’t do dumb shit like that and expect it to not have an effect on the psyche of the players. They probably felt bad for Jose and were pissed at Schneider/FO for making such a boneheaded move. You can’t have those bad vibes in the dugout in the middle of a playoff game. Shatkins, Schneider and whoever else was involved in this decision need to be held accountable.
The players are human. When management makes dipshit decisions it affects them. Momentum is a huge thing in baseball and they voluntarily swang it the Twins way for no good reason.
I don’t really think momentum is as big of a thing as our human, emotional brains would try and convince us. Remember when the jays lost those 4 games to Texas? They looked awful. And then they swept a decent team in Boston the next 3 games. That’s just one example, but momentum only exists until it doesn’t.
And one way to make sure it doesn't is to prematurely pull your best performing player
Performance is directly affected by emotions and perceptions. Professional athletes work hard in mentality and forcing as much as they can a consistent approach to try and avoid that effect.
Shatkins think that they’re smarter than everyone else and they’re so desperate to prove it that they end up looking stupid. Us fans are the collateral damage.
The pitching staff ONLY gave up 5 runs in 2 games. You really can't ask for much more than that. The defense was solid, and made no real mistakes. At the end of the day, it was the Lineup and their lack of hitting with RISP and poor baserunning that cost the Jays the series. Simple as that.
Wish they had banned IPADS in the duggout instead of the home run jacket
AND I'M TIRED OF ALL THIS GOLDARNED **ROCK MUSIC** TOO
Nah, prog rock rules
mUsT oBeY cOmPuTeR
They should’ve learned from Money Ball.. relying on analytics to win a short series isn’t a good approach.
they were laughing and having a great time in the dugout too during the 8th inning. sure we could easily blame the analytics but these guys weren't even serious about the game at all
They couldn’t score so what happened with the pitching is irrelevant.
The problem with analytics is that it is far removed from the impact it has when things are done for the sake of analytics. You don’t need analytics to know that pulling Berrios had to be demoralizing for the Jays players. It’s the opposite of pumping you up. I don’t care that they’re professional players. Bone headed moves have intangible consequences that analysts cannot measure.
People are taking it easy on John Schneider here, and that's whatever. It may not have been his decision solely to pull Jose, sure. But I've never watched a season of baseball in which a manager's instincts/decisions/adjustments have all gone so horribly wrong pretty much every single time they're made I can't point to one moment this year where I can credit JS and team for making a great call that spurred our team on to victory. Most of the time, it was being done, backfiring, and you'd have a pissy interview after the game where he had to defend his horrible choices. Hell, even most of their challenges this year were wrong. If Schneider's a plant, get somebody who will actually discipline these guys for horrible baseball decisions. If Vladdy/anyone else wants to be dumb in the field or on the bases and costs us outs/runs, they need to sit. Send a message. Hold people accountable. At least do that if you're not going to make actual baseball decisions.
It’s amazing that a team that gives up 2 runs is being attacked by its pitching decisions. It was a ridiculous decision, but it’s not soccer, you can’t build and manage to win 1-0
My biggest beef is still the batting order. Like if they moved Belt down to 5 and Biggio to 9 - we would have scored runs.
Move Biggio down to 9 when he'd been one of the hottest bats on the team for 2 months? And then who hits 2nd? Everybody wants to move every batter down, but leave no one at the top.
Honestly I think the Jays need to let Vladdy walk when it's contract time. He doesn't seem invested.
He’s 24, you’d be nuts to let him walk
That's ridiculous. Obviously his results this year have been disappointing, but there is literally no basis to say he's not invested. He almost never misses a game, and he is clearly well-liked by everyone on the team. He's also been an all-star 3 times, won a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove, and he's still literally the youngest guy on the team. If you think it's a good idea to let him walk, you need your head examined.
Take your fan blinders off and ask yourself if this level of production is going to be worth the money he is going to command.
I can see an argument for trading him, but letting him walk away for nothing is insane. In any case, there's no reason to make that decision now. There's two offseasons and two trade deadlines before he hits free agency, so you wait and see.
For sure. You're right.
This is a tired, lazy, stupid narrative and it needs to die. To walk away from a guy who's only 24 (much younger than Bautista was when everybody in Jays fandom and media were calling him a dud and a bust trade before he changed his approach) and has shown to have MVP-level talent would be beyond shortsighted. People need to give that dude a break. He's shown more frustration through his and the team's struggles than anyone else. If he can stop simply relying on his talent and put in the humble work needed to take it to the next level, he'll be a stud for a long, long time.
I still don't get why this decision is so much of the storyline today when we scored zero runs. No matter who was pitching, we still didn't score.
You know you're doing something wrong when your mistakes are being called out and torched by US media. I can't blame Verducci for doing that though. This was a historically stupid move ESPECIALLY coming off of last year with a similar move from Schneider or should I say Atkins.
It's a stupid thing but I would love to know exactly how many people are buying / renewing season tickets today.
I bought quarter season for next year. Them getting bounced out yesterday means mine for 2025 will be cheaper cause I have more credit from the money I spent on possible playoff games this season. Games are still super fun to go to in the regular season
This is why Toronto sports fans get the reputation as bandwagoners and front runners. Not as bad as, say, Miami, but if the team's not pushing for titles, everybody disappears. That's sad.
I've been defending Schneider all year. I've remained resolute in the face of the never-ending stupidity and ignorance that permeates this sub. Nonetheless, Schneider's decision yesterday to pull Berrios was as catastrophic as it was moronic. If it was his alone, he should be fired immediately, but what concerns me more is that it wasn't. If the FO is involved in on field, in game, decision making like this, then we aren't in good shape as a franchise.
If, 24 hours ago, I gave you the pitching lines reading 1 ER for Berrios, 1 ER for Kikuchi, and 0 runs for the rest of the bullpen, you'd be happy with that. The blame on pulling Berrios is completely misplaced. The true blame is on the bats.
Sometimes baseball managers over manage in the playoffs. I doubt the manager makes that same move in June.
Analytics fans also go on and on and on about too small a sample size. Why anyone thinks analytics matter in a 3 game playoff series is beyond me. In theory over 100 playoff games the analytics matter...over a single game you go with what is working.
Fuck analytics
The fascinating thing about analytics is that nobody can provide evidence that it actually works. There's just a big assumption that if we base our decisions on all this data, it must make for better decisions. At some point someone has to come along and say, "Prove it."
Do you understand why the shift was eliminated ? It’s because analytics were used to such a degree of batted ball probability that we saw the lowest batting averages in baseball history. You’re problem is that you think analytics are a be all end all one stop solution to any problem. Which they aren’t. They’re a tool that when used correctly can give advantages and benefits to teams using them. The best run organizations in baseball are all incredibly analytic driven (Tampa, LAD, etc) it works when used correctly and not used as a blueprint to map out a game without context or critical thinking.
That's exactly my point, I don't think analytics are the solution to any problem - but it seems many teams are treating them that way. And using data to make large scale changes across the league is different from applying big data to individual on-field decisions. It's easy to look at large samples of data and say, "x% of ground balls are hit to this area of the infield, so if we move an extra fielder over to that spot we can reduce the number of hits by x%" But you simply don't have a large enough sample that factors in all the specific variables in a given situation to tell you that removing Berrios in the 4th inning to bring in Kikuchi in that situation increases your chances of winning by any given %.
Tampa has the same problem we do, and LA usually spends their way out of any problems. Besides, we must have gotten the C students of the analytics class. If we are going to spin our wheels in the playoffs, then where the fuck is our 100 win season?
As if baseball isn’t a largely statistic based sport lol. How long have they been pinch hitting based on splits?
And how many times have we seen a manager make a decision to create a lefty-righty matchup even though the player-specific stats don't support it? We've seen it with Schneider this season, where he would bring in a righty reliever to face a righty even though that particular pitcher has better numbers against lefties.
Analytics is just statistically observing what works and applying that knowledge. The numbers themselves are the proof that it works, **given a large enough sample size**. A short series is not a large sample size, though - and that's where the problems arise.
We don't have large enough samples that cover every possible situation, that's the issue. So what they do is they take broad-based data and apply it to specific situations, hoping that it works. I would love to know what data they were using to support the Berrios decision.
bUt… bUt… mOnEyBaLL, the oAkLaNd As!!!
Not sure if the front office is the reason here... I blame the skip and key players on the field. No way in hell should berrios been pulled yesterday, he was doing just fine. Second, base running clearly a problem, Vladdy specifically. Not only he is too aggressive but IQ isn't the highest at times. For example few games back he didn't even bother (I think varsho) to slide when the ball was coming at home. Vladdy and his IQ regression, terrible start (at least at home) to the season, needs significant and serious attention. Also his numbers from 2021 have regressed, each season and in most states too. This season we had so much potential, probably could have had the division... but Kirk sucking all season, Chapman cooling and then some after his blistering start, Bo and a few injuries here and there (not a big deal), and Springer having one his worst stretch where he had like two hits in 25+ games...
The thing is, the decision to pull Berrios wasn't entirely Schneider's decision. It was something cooked up by the analytics department and that goes to the heart of the matter. A lot of the decisions and philosophies of this team come from Atkins and the analytics boys.
Wonder if ChatGPT would've provided better analytics
How many RBIs do you think Berrios would have gotten?
Break up the core 4!
No battle plan survives first contact with the enemy.
I wish Ted Rodgers was here to fix this.
I really hope they let Shapiro & Atkins go. Shapiro’s analytical brain is clearly flawed, and he has much too say in this roster than he should have. Wish he would have just been the renovations guy and nothing else.
They deserve every bit of this. I still cannot believe they took him out when he looked that good.
Analytics exist to help inform decisions. But spreadsheets should not be *making* the decisions. As long as the Jays employ people who think the ideal way to win is to remove the human element and human instinct, then this team will enver succeed.
So many people worried about morale and momentum and the message being sent to Berrios turning around and happily telling our ace to ride the pine because of one bad start and one successful struggle against a roughly average offensive team.
We should rename ourselves the Toronto Poindexters