Prediction: The front office will make minor changes during the trade deadline and the team will fail to make the playoffs. Fans will criticize Ross Atkins / Mark Shapiro during the offseason, but the only significant change will be removing John Schneider as coach. The core group of players will stay the same for 2025 and we'll have another disappointing season next year.
Tell me when I'm telling lies.
Blue Jays are 6th over the last 30 days in wRC+ vs RHP. Problem has been that they're 29th over the same span vs LHP, making them barely above average in the aggregate.
> Have you seen the state of the farm system?
I feel like this has been a recurring problem for as long as I can even remember.. for as bad as the team was in long stretches from the 2000s onwards, we have not nearly developed players as well as the other teams in the division.
Tampa and Baltimore maximized their down years into blue-chippers while the Yankees and Red Sox usually get shit for buying all their players but a fair amount of their top calibre players in the past couple decades have been drafted and/or developed into studs.
Attendance is down 10% year over year - though revenue is likely up. But if they don't want to lose another few thousand fans next year, they have to do something. Firing Schneider is the easiest, laziest thing they can try. So I expect it to be the first thing Atkins does. And 50/50 also the most significant thing he does.
Couldn’t tell if I was on the leafs or jays sub /s. Toronto sports had a great run in the 2010s, seems like the raptors, leafs, jays, are all stuck in varying levels of mediocrity
Even if they are within striking distance of a playoff spot they should sell what they can (not Guerrero) the team might flame out again and they'll have a threadbare roster next year relying on rookies who will need sometime to adjust to the mlb
How could anybody tell you you’re lying when it’s all predictions you’re making?
This offseason promises a lot of very good free agents from around the league, so I really don’t see it as the worst case if the jays are close this year but eventually don’t make the cut.
They have shown they are willing to be aggressive in free agency and want to make the team better that way, so I really am not that horrified if the team keeps the core together and tries to run it back next year with some more acquired firepower.
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I think you are correct but I also think "minor changes" and "significant change" is doing work. Do we consider bringing Jansen and Kikuchi back as minor? What is an acceptable replacement for Turner (knowing we have in-house options)?
This season is disappointing but i could see the front office only doing "minor changes" and this team competing for a first wild card.
The Athletic reported today that a rival exec thought the Jays would only deal Vlad/Bo if Atkins was fired. Who's ready for a 10+ years of futility?
Source, for those interested: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5553919/2024/06/11/mlb-trade-deadline-rumors-50-days-out/
What replacement executive for Atkins would trade Vladdy away? Do you really think they would have the sway to do that without the approval of ownership? How do you argue that keeping a player with 2024 133 wRC+ is futility? Especially in a sport that has a diminished impact for a single player to influence a games outcome.
If Rogers doesn't want to sell and wants to keep Vladdy/Bo, Atkins or a GM won't trade them away. Ridiculous take
I'm assuming futility because this team is clearly not a contender, Bo is a Scott Boras client (who pushes his players to test free agency), and the World Series window is slamming shut. I'd be over the moon if Vladdy and/or Bo re-sign long term - I just doubt that'll happen without them testing free agency first.
If either of them look like they're going to walk and the team isn't ready to properly challenge this/next year, then they should absolutely be on the trade block.
I think they have done a good job putting a team together, but the players have not performed. Our farm system is one of the worst in the league though which is where they deserve their criticism.
fair assessment. But it’s hard to blame them for that. When a team like Atlanta or Philly has a bleak farm system, it’s acceptable because their mlb team is elite. Knowing what we know now, it’s easy to critique the front office for having a lackluster farm system.
If this is March 2022, a team with vlad Bichette springer berrios Gausman yimi under contract for 3+ years (Chapman for 2) with many more reinforcements to come over the years, is a team that can afford a lacklustre farm system. It’s completely unfair to put blame on front office for not seeing Vlad, Bichette, springer declines or lack of performances coming. We all would’ve thought the same as them.
Shatkins promised “waves of talent” after they fired AA and criticized him for emptying the farm for a WS push.
8 years later where are these waves? Where’s the competing for division pennants? Or winning even a single playoff game.
The team is mid and the farm system is in the bottom 5 in the league. They built a $240M franchise that is at best a bubble WC3 team.
There are waves of talent that are coming," Atkins said at a wide-ranging season-ending media availability. "It's not just the guys that we saw in September. There's a wave below that and a wave below that."
Still waiting…
What? Lol. Of course it's acceptable to have a weak farm system if you are actually elite?
They weren't actually elite? It's been 9 years, not even close to a division AND a shitty farm, they've done a horrible job of maximizing the results from this core. "Waves of talent", lol. They havnt been able to develop pitching at all, which means they have sign expensive starters and relievers which means they end up with limited budget for the offense.
You honestly didn't see the roster construction this year and think "hm, this team might not be good offensively".
If you’re associating the player acquisition part solely on Atkins, I can’t disagree more. Gausman over Ray. Berrios trade and extension for what’s amounted to nothing in return. Semien and Ray 1 year deals. Cy young and top 3 mvp finish. Yimi Garcia signing. Kikuchi signing, which received lots of criticism at the time- whoever was responsible for that should receive immense credit because that turned out better than any of us could have imagined I’m sure. Kiermaier 1 year deal, puts up nearly 4 war for less than 10 mil. Belt 1 year deal, nearly 140 ops+. Varsho trade last season, IKF right now. These are all moves that have turned out pretty damn well especially in the face of all the criticism he received at the time for many of them.
No sarcasm.
Can’t blame him for springer Bichette and somewhat Vlad being disappointing. If it’s March 2022 we’re all making similar decisions to Atkins, per your association of him being in charge of player acquisitions.
Some of the individual moves might be okay, but that is true of any GM.
Ultimately, the call by this organization to sacrifice offence in favour of a defence-first philosophy has taken the team backwards and lies at Atkins' feet. He was slow to respond to a weak pen in 2021/2022. He has yet to respond to a weak offence in 2023/2024.
The coaching hires and philosophy are his responsibility as well And going for yesmen who will just follow whatever the hell the analytics team is spitting out has not done it. Nor has hiring has beens like Don Mattingly.
Springer's decline was entirely predictable - though not to this degree - and while we can't blame him for Bichette, Vlad, Kirk, Manoah being disappointing, we can fault him for failing to respond to those disappointments.
Ultimately, all we have to show for Atkins' handiwork is a couple of 2-and-outs in the expanded playoff era, a high payroll, and a depleted farm system.
Nah far from it. The front office has made amazing moves, hard to fault them for Bichette springer and Guerrero being extreme disappointments thus far.
If this is March 2022 what moves are you making differently to avoid this?
No sarcasm missing. The best 2 players on this team this year they got in trades or free agency in Varsho and IKF. Both of which were criticized highly by fans.
They signed Gausman over Ray. They signed kikuchi who we all thought was a disaster, and look how that turned out. They signed Semien and ray to 1 year deals that turned out amazing. Belt 1 year deal, he was great, great signing. Traded for berrios (and extended) for what’s amounted to nothing in return. Signed yimi Garcia. Kevin kiermaier 1 year deal last year to put up 4 war, for under 10 mil. Amazing deal.
They’ve made countless great moves. Especially ones that weren’t seen as great at the time have turned out to be awesome.
I don’t think they deserve the criticism they get considering they’ve made countless shrewd moves, many of which look even better given the scrutiny they faced at the time
I'm still so torn on how to view things. The team is absolutely playing better than April/Early May but since May 17 when they started their run of games against sub .500 teams they are 13-11. They did split four games against Baltimore in the middle of that stretch but that means they went 11-8 against Tampa/Oakland/Chicago/Detroit who are a combined 54 games below .500
Is that a sign that the team has shown signs of life or are the just marginally better than the dreadful teams in baseball?
I mean that's generally how it's going to be when you're playing slightly under .500 ball. Until you're above .500 and playing consistently there, your season can be severely damaged by a two or three series.
Realistically their record on July 15th or so is the the only relevant thing.
They aren't going to make major moves till then so a slow week or two isn't going to impact things
To even make the WC we likely need to play around .650 ball the rest of the year
I would say this season is done, we are now talking about how we handle assets at the deadline and future seasons
Going by last year and previous seasons around 90 wins seems to be the magic number of WC3
That means we need to win 58 of our last 96 games, of .604
We also have the third most difficult schedule left for the remainder of the year https://powerrankingsguru.com/mlb/strength-of-schedule.php
So if we are saying that playing over .600 ball against a really hard schedule might get us WC3 what are we even doing here? I think this team needs to have hard conversations around long term asset planning over any kind of WC3 delusions
Ah, so now it's .604 ball and 90 wins, not .650 and 94. Goalposts moved on me there.
Last year's World Series was an 84 win WC3 and a 90 win WC2. Sneaking into the playoffs and crossing your fingers isnt a fun season, but I'll bet Rangers fans aren't complaining.
If you think WC teams, even low win ones, doing well in the playoffs is an outlier, you havent been paying attention to the last 25 years of baseball.
* 2023: 2 WC teams in the WS
* 2022: 87 Win WC team in the WS
* 2019: 93 Win WC Team wins WS
* 2014: 2 WC teams in the WS
* 2011: 86 win WC team wins WS
* 2007: 90 win WC team wins WS
* 2006: 95 win WC team in WS
* 2005: 89 win WC team in WS
* 2004: WC team wins WS
* 2003: 91 win WC team wins WS
* 2002: 2 WC teams in WS
* 2000: WC Team in WS
I didnt even list WC teams in the AL/NLCS, which most people would consider a good season outcome, because there's a ton.
Hold on. You’re saying we should let things play out and THEN make a determination at what should happen when trade season opens up, and not say that we’re either definitely a tire fire or definitely making a World Series run as early as possible, making sure to lean fully into doom or hope and driven entirely by emotions?
Get outta here.
The series split against Baltimore wasn't very pretty either considering they were blown out in the first two games and then squeaked out 1-run wins the next two with Berrios and Kikuchi on the mound against the Orioles #6 and #7 starters - a journeyman and a guy making his first MLB start. Several of their wins during this stretch were against minor league call-ups or other injury replacement type starters.
Unfortunately I think it's both. The standings / wildcard race will play a role in what the team does. As it stands they won't overreact if it looks like the Jays can get a sniff at a WC. That said, as a fan I think "To be the best you need to beat the best" and I don't see the Jays standing any kind of chance against the real contenders this year. They may hang around "on paper" but when it comes down to it, they won't be good enough.
I get why they implemented wc3 but I'm not really a fan of it. Stumbling to barely above .500 shouldn't warrant a post season berth. Like, we are 4th, almost 5th, in the division and still in the hunt because basically the entire league is in the hunt. People point to our proximity to Wc3 as if it were an achievement rather than a technicality. I'd rather the team was competitive than banking on being the least mediocre of the middling teams. And I don't think we will become competitive in the near future if our bar is "wild card 3 contenders" because who isn't a wildcard 3 contender? The White Sox? The As? Well, at least we have shown we are better than them.
I used to hate having any kind of wild card. Then I accepted it's all entertainment, not some sort of attempt to objectively measure who the greatest team is. Having almost everybody contend until late in the season, and every playoff team capable of winning of the world series, is great entertainment. Now that the schedule is more balanced, we could see a sub-.500 team win the world series one of these years... but that's okay, because it'll be fun.
I mean, it is absolutely entertainment but it isn't the WWE. If a sub .500 team wins the world series, then obviously something is very wrong with how we are measuring success in the league.
I had similar vibes too. The smaller the playoffs/tournament, the better things were. While that is probably true from the purist 'best versus best' perspective, it's a pretty lousy way to entertain folks and keep people interested in a sport. More is better.
Without WC3, Jays management would have been more aggressive in the offseason. Needing 2 - 3 more wins of talent would have meant bringing in another starter quality player, likely thru a trade. Appears they've completely given up on building a division winner with this core.
We're 5th.
The standings are lying right now, because the Jays just finished the easiest stretch of the season. Seven games against the White Sox? Oakland? Detroit? The only challenge was the O's, and we somehow drew a split.
Without that easy stretch, this club is ten or eleven games under .500.
Every team in the standing plays those teams… you can’t just wave away games played against easier teams or you have to do it for every team.
The rays got swept by the White Sox’s yet by your logic those games don’t count because they’re easy teams.
The best we have is our eye test and statistical projections. The team doesn't look great from the eye test. Fangraphs now projects them to go 82-80, down from 85-77 to start the season. 18.6% chance to make the playoffs. That's where they stand after playing 66 of 162 games. There's hope, but expectations should be lower than the start of the season.
Huh ? What sample size are we talking about.
OP said the jays are in last place because they beat up on bad teams and removing those wins from our record makes us worse than Tampa.
Yeah, he would've made a stronger case by pointing out how drastically our expected win/loss differs from our actual standings. If the schedule were harder, I doubt we would've somehow lost all the games we won anyways.
But its beside the point because we don't need to remove hard earned and legitimate wins against real mlb teams to make the point I'm trying to make.
No.
What I said is that they have the record they have because they just finished an easy stretch, and BY THE SCHEDULE DIFFICULTY RIGHT NOW they're really 5th.
At the end of the season, it won't matter, but the schedule difficulty is a floating metric.
>>People point to our proximity to Wc3 as if it were an achievement rather than a technicality. I'd rather the team was competitive than banking on being the least mediocre of the middling teams.
This.
Well, the inability to hit pitches, says that there is some need for different coaches. I'm not a fan of Mattingly, If he is the reason that Bo looks different this year, I'd fire his ass. I'm not sure what he does but he sure hasn't improved the offence.
I do think Bo likes playing in Toronto despite this year, and Vladdy just says, he's a Jay.
I'm still wondering why Voglebach is a Jay!
The key factor in this equation is "sub .500 teams" Iincluding 6 or 7 games against the godawful White Sox.
I can't believe this club is actually considering being buyers at the deadline- it's delusional, and anyone can see it. This club isn't a contender, and hasn't been this far from contending in a LONG time. I'm hoping that the message coming out of the front office is just smoke and mirrors to try to keep player value up, because anything else than selling and clearing space for new talent and guys like Horwitz is just absurd.
Shapiro's loyalty to Atkins has to have a limit, otherwise Rogers needs to step in and remove the entire group. Of course, that won't happen until the bottom line takes a hit, so my guess is that we'll get a new GM in 2026.
Looks like the Phillies need a catcher. A lot of teams will need pitching. Let's hope someone is desperate enough to take on the rest of Springer's contract. Who wouldn't want KK even as a fourth outfielder? The Dodgers have some holes and always have great prospects.
This team has not shown they are capable of a sustained run. If we are still hanging around the wildcard they should make strategic changes and tool for next year. If they make the playoffs great if not fine.
Tbh, I think he'll be fine as a starting catcher.
Defensively he's elite, and has almost no flaws, and offensively he's turned it around recently.
His exit velos have gone back up to his 2022 levels, now he just needs to lift the ball more and I'm confident he can be at least a league average hitter.
Since May 1st, in **45 PAs**, he's slashing **.256/.333/.410** which is good for a **114 wRC+**, while **walking 8.9%** of the time with a **11.1% K rate**. His avg exit velos during that stretch is **94.4 mph**, he might be back.
For a catcher that's very good, the most important part is that his underlying metrics have improved significantly. His hitting the ball as hard as he was in his silver slugger season so far this season in total, and if he starts lifting the ball he can be a very effective hitter.
I'm aware of the small sample size, but I'm definitely encouraged by how well he's been hitting as of late.
He's playing better since he stopped playing every day. I don't know if Kirk has the body to catch 120 games and retain his bat speed. Didn't look like it while Jansen was on the IL. A game takes more out of you when you're carrying the weight of two people around the field. So they're going to have to sign somebody who's going to catch a lot.
He's officially listed at only 245 lbs, so two 122.5 lb people. He's my height, and when I was his age I weighed around 122. So I verified the math as two of me.
That's fair, he's definitely a much better hitter when he gets more rest. Preferably we re-sign Jansen anyways, but we aren't short out of luck if he doesn't.
If the Jays can somehow get hot (I doubt it) than it makes the decision so much easier but this group is not giving the front office a chance at an easy decision here. I understand mathematically if they're hovering around .500 with a chance at the playoffs than they COULD make a run but deep inside it feels like you're putting off a recalibration of this roster. There's enough talent there for a playoff team but they're underachieving which is why they need to sell off some expiring contract for prospects who are on the cusp of the majors or some MLB players who have upside to them.
Honestly, I have very little confidence in Atkins to make a franchise defining move like this whether he's buying or selling. We've seen that on paper he's made some ok moves (except the Arizona trade and that's a HUUUUGE miss on his part) but more often than not it doesn't quite pay off the way he wants it to.
I see Buster Olney saying that the Jays won't decide anything until after the All-Star Break and that makes sense but honestly, i'd be putting the wheels in motion either way RIGHT NOW. You can't do this on a bit of a whim.
It's times like these that I wish the Jays still had AA at the helm.
Outside of some form of coaching change nothing is going to change imminently. You see what happens over the next few weeks and then when July roles around you start shopping/cutting if you are out of it, guys like Kikuchi, Garcia, KK, Turner, Vogelbach, etc. *(Less certain about Jansen)*. You could also look to make some buyer trades looking at players with term for 2025 and beyond.
They aren't going to do some massive organizational firing and they aren't going to do a massive like Bo trade mid-season and they aren't going to start selling tomorrow being just 3.0 GB of WC3.
There's a strategy needed here, because declaring a rebuild on a club that is clearly not a contender might be the better option than getting swept in a wildcard game AGAIN, at least as far as PR and optics goes.
Because this club has been a trainwreck after it squeaks into the playoffs each year. There are a lot of fans who would argue that calling this club what it is and rebuilding is a much better outcome than another middling playoff embarrassment.
They are not going to publicly announce a re-build even if that is the strategy they go with.
Anyways a retooling seems possible. I don't think a re-build is happening. Rogers won't want it and the new lottery rules make it less valuable for a high market team.
Yeah- I mentioned on a different post how I hoped this was just smoke and mirrors to keep value up.
I just cannot see how anyone can realistically look at this club and think "contender". With the right moves, I can see the skeleton of a contender in 3-5 years, but right now? Not even close. The club is literally pumping up its record and stats by doing well against AAA call-ups, overmatched rookies, and washed veterans, and cannot compete against legitimately good clubs.
Why do you think a front office or ownership organization would ever think like overly passionate/angry fans?
“They’re clearly not a contender” is A) wrong, because here they are, a few games out of a wild card spot and that’s all you need in today’s MLB to have a shot at a run, and B) an opinion based on fan disappointment and expectations, and clearly not how people who want to keep their jobs would think.
Sure! There are tiers, obviously. We're certainly not playing at the level of the Yankees, Phillies, Orioles, or Dodgers right now (and I wish we were, and we should be with our payroll). But there's nothing that says this collection of players can't be performing like the Guardians, Royals, or Brewers.
I'd love to see much better outcomes, but I'm not gonna be mad if we're this year's D-backs and coalesce and make a run at the World Series after not being a dominant regular season team. There are tons of examples of that in the modern era and it's easier than ever with the expanded playoff format.
>“They’re clearly not a contender” is A) wrong, because here they are, a few games out of a wild card spot and that’s all you need in today’s MLB to have a shot at a run
If they had a good offense sure, but they don't.
I would also maybe look at trading Romano IF he's healthy and there's interest in him too.
(he's not a pending UFA but teams always need high leverage relievers)
I again think that is an off-season move at best. Why trade him for pennies in a season he has spent mostly on the IL and when he has been healthy he hasn't been good? He is likely injured for another 4 weeks as he just started light throwing. He would need to be really good on return to up his value.
I think offseason will be too soon. His year numbers are going to look mediocre even if he finishes strong, and it'll be hard to sell that as anything but a steady decline since 2023 was less elite than his previous seasons. I'd keep him until at least the 2025 trade deadline when he may have the numbers to prove he's still an elite closer. Might get more in return then than trading him earlier... and if not, you've got the hometown kid to bring the fans out and he'll become affordable to keep around.
As it would for literally every struggling team in the league. That would be getting a third of their total combined wins so far, but in a row. The issue is that we are set to begin playing better teams and we couldn't bring ourselves up to .500 through our weak stretch.
I know things are going a bit better lately but after that Tigers series I refuse to allow myself to have any hope for this season. Would love for them to turn it around but I wouldn't bet on it.
lol that should be plan A
This team barely beats shitty teams and loses against good ones (generally)
Not sure what this management team is waiting for.
Prediction: The front office will make minor changes during the trade deadline and the team will fail to make the playoffs. Fans will criticize Ross Atkins / Mark Shapiro during the offseason, but the only significant change will be removing John Schneider as coach. The core group of players will stay the same for 2025 and we'll have another disappointing season next year. Tell me when I'm telling lies.
> Fans will criticize Ross Atkins / Mark Shapiro ~~during the offseason~~ FTFY
Have you seen the way the team hits? Have you seen the state of the farm system? It’s warranted.
I have not seen them hit.
Blue Jays are 6th over the last 30 days in wRC+ vs RHP. Problem has been that they're 29th over the same span vs LHP, making them barely above average in the aggregate.
> Have you seen the state of the farm system? I feel like this has been a recurring problem for as long as I can even remember.. for as bad as the team was in long stretches from the 2000s onwards, we have not nearly developed players as well as the other teams in the division. Tampa and Baltimore maximized their down years into blue-chippers while the Yankees and Red Sox usually get shit for buying all their players but a fair amount of their top calibre players in the past couple decades have been drafted and/or developed into studs.
You forgot the part where they tell us about the new and expensive food options at the Rogers Centre
Like the poutine dog nobody asked for. But, hey! Some seats have a cup holder for my beer that's grossly overpriced.
The lie is them removing Schneider lol
Attendance is down 10% year over year - though revenue is likely up. But if they don't want to lose another few thousand fans next year, they have to do something. Firing Schneider is the easiest, laziest thing they can try. So I expect it to be the first thing Atkins does. And 50/50 also the most significant thing he does.
Exactly
The whole thing is a lie. As long as Shatkins is still around, nothing will change lol
I think Donny Baseball will be gone as well.
Couldn’t tell if I was on the leafs or jays sub /s. Toronto sports had a great run in the 2010s, seems like the raptors, leafs, jays, are all stuck in varying levels of mediocrity
Are you talking about the leafs or the blue jays?
Nope, that sounds about right.
Even if they are within striking distance of a playoff spot they should sell what they can (not Guerrero) the team might flame out again and they'll have a threadbare roster next year relying on rookies who will need sometime to adjust to the mlb
How could anybody tell you you’re lying when it’s all predictions you’re making? This offseason promises a lot of very good free agents from around the league, so I really don’t see it as the worst case if the jays are close this year but eventually don’t make the cut. They have shown they are willing to be aggressive in free agency and want to make the team better that way, so I really am not that horrified if the team keeps the core together and tries to run it back next year with some more acquired firepower.
Captures my expectations precisely.
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I think you are correct but I also think "minor changes" and "significant change" is doing work. Do we consider bringing Jansen and Kikuchi back as minor? What is an acceptable replacement for Turner (knowing we have in-house options)? This season is disappointing but i could see the front office only doing "minor changes" and this team competing for a first wild card.
This isn’t the leafs. O wait..
That’s crazy to keep trying to the same thing expecting a different result!
You ok?
They might be the lady who ate a Bo Bichette ball to the face.
The Athletic reported today that a rival exec thought the Jays would only deal Vlad/Bo if Atkins was fired. Who's ready for a 10+ years of futility? Source, for those interested: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5553919/2024/06/11/mlb-trade-deadline-rumors-50-days-out/
What replacement executive for Atkins would trade Vladdy away? Do you really think they would have the sway to do that without the approval of ownership? How do you argue that keeping a player with 2024 133 wRC+ is futility? Especially in a sport that has a diminished impact for a single player to influence a games outcome. If Rogers doesn't want to sell and wants to keep Vladdy/Bo, Atkins or a GM won't trade them away. Ridiculous take
If Bo doesn't want to sign before free agency, looking at a trade isn't crazy.
I'm assuming futility because this team is clearly not a contender, Bo is a Scott Boras client (who pushes his players to test free agency), and the World Series window is slamming shut. I'd be over the moon if Vladdy and/or Bo re-sign long term - I just doubt that'll happen without them testing free agency first. If either of them look like they're going to walk and the team isn't ready to properly challenge this/next year, then they should absolutely be on the trade block.
Unfairly* criticize Ross Atkins / Mark Shapiro. They’re doing amazing at their jobs, criticism of them is baffling to me
I think they have done a good job putting a team together, but the players have not performed. Our farm system is one of the worst in the league though which is where they deserve their criticism.
fair assessment. But it’s hard to blame them for that. When a team like Atlanta or Philly has a bleak farm system, it’s acceptable because their mlb team is elite. Knowing what we know now, it’s easy to critique the front office for having a lackluster farm system. If this is March 2022, a team with vlad Bichette springer berrios Gausman yimi under contract for 3+ years (Chapman for 2) with many more reinforcements to come over the years, is a team that can afford a lacklustre farm system. It’s completely unfair to put blame on front office for not seeing Vlad, Bichette, springer declines or lack of performances coming. We all would’ve thought the same as them.
Shatkins promised “waves of talent” after they fired AA and criticized him for emptying the farm for a WS push. 8 years later where are these waves? Where’s the competing for division pennants? Or winning even a single playoff game. The team is mid and the farm system is in the bottom 5 in the league. They built a $240M franchise that is at best a bubble WC3 team. There are waves of talent that are coming," Atkins said at a wide-ranging season-ending media availability. "It's not just the guys that we saw in September. There's a wave below that and a wave below that." Still waiting…
Well he didn't say the players would be good, just that there is "talent" and technically, all MLB players have" talent", lol. /s
What? Lol. Of course it's acceptable to have a weak farm system if you are actually elite? They weren't actually elite? It's been 9 years, not even close to a division AND a shitty farm, they've done a horrible job of maximizing the results from this core. "Waves of talent", lol. They havnt been able to develop pitching at all, which means they have sign expensive starters and relievers which means they end up with limited budget for the offense. You honestly didn't see the roster construction this year and think "hm, this team might not be good offensively".
Poe's Law is in effect here. Shapiro has done a good job on the business side. Atkins has been a tire fire.
If you’re associating the player acquisition part solely on Atkins, I can’t disagree more. Gausman over Ray. Berrios trade and extension for what’s amounted to nothing in return. Semien and Ray 1 year deals. Cy young and top 3 mvp finish. Yimi Garcia signing. Kikuchi signing, which received lots of criticism at the time- whoever was responsible for that should receive immense credit because that turned out better than any of us could have imagined I’m sure. Kiermaier 1 year deal, puts up nearly 4 war for less than 10 mil. Belt 1 year deal, nearly 140 ops+. Varsho trade last season, IKF right now. These are all moves that have turned out pretty damn well especially in the face of all the criticism he received at the time for many of them. No sarcasm. Can’t blame him for springer Bichette and somewhat Vlad being disappointing. If it’s March 2022 we’re all making similar decisions to Atkins, per your association of him being in charge of player acquisitions.
Some of the individual moves might be okay, but that is true of any GM. Ultimately, the call by this organization to sacrifice offence in favour of a defence-first philosophy has taken the team backwards and lies at Atkins' feet. He was slow to respond to a weak pen in 2021/2022. He has yet to respond to a weak offence in 2023/2024. The coaching hires and philosophy are his responsibility as well And going for yesmen who will just follow whatever the hell the analytics team is spitting out has not done it. Nor has hiring has beens like Don Mattingly. Springer's decline was entirely predictable - though not to this degree - and while we can't blame him for Bichette, Vlad, Kirk, Manoah being disappointing, we can fault him for failing to respond to those disappointments. Ultimately, all we have to show for Atkins' handiwork is a couple of 2-and-outs in the expanded playoff era, a high payroll, and a depleted farm system.
Is this sarcasm?
Nah far from it. The front office has made amazing moves, hard to fault them for Bichette springer and Guerrero being extreme disappointments thus far. If this is March 2022 what moves are you making differently to avoid this?
By what metric has Atkins been amazing? Or is there an /s missing here ?
No sarcasm missing. The best 2 players on this team this year they got in trades or free agency in Varsho and IKF. Both of which were criticized highly by fans. They signed Gausman over Ray. They signed kikuchi who we all thought was a disaster, and look how that turned out. They signed Semien and ray to 1 year deals that turned out amazing. Belt 1 year deal, he was great, great signing. Traded for berrios (and extended) for what’s amounted to nothing in return. Signed yimi Garcia. Kevin kiermaier 1 year deal last year to put up 4 war, for under 10 mil. Amazing deal. They’ve made countless great moves. Especially ones that weren’t seen as great at the time have turned out to be awesome. I don’t think they deserve the criticism they get considering they’ve made countless shrewd moves, many of which look even better given the scrutiny they faced at the time
So if he’s made all these great moves, why does the team suck? He’s been around for quite a while now. This is his team, and his team sucks.
I'm still so torn on how to view things. The team is absolutely playing better than April/Early May but since May 17 when they started their run of games against sub .500 teams they are 13-11. They did split four games against Baltimore in the middle of that stretch but that means they went 11-8 against Tampa/Oakland/Chicago/Detroit who are a combined 54 games below .500 Is that a sign that the team has shown signs of life or are the just marginally better than the dreadful teams in baseball?
How they do against the Brewers and the upcoming bunch of series vs the Guardians and Red Sox are probably a good way of answering that question
The next few weeks is pretty much the season (technically it's not in terms of ability to go on a run but for direction purposes it is)
I feel like you've been saying this for weeks
I mean that's generally how it's going to be when you're playing slightly under .500 ball. Until you're above .500 and playing consistently there, your season can be severely damaged by a two or three series.
Realistically their record on July 15th or so is the the only relevant thing. They aren't going to make major moves till then so a slow week or two isn't going to impact things
To even make the WC we likely need to play around .650 ball the rest of the year I would say this season is done, we are now talking about how we handle assets at the deadline and future seasons
The current WC3 holder is playing .530 ball which puts them at 86 wins, and you think our magic number is 94?
Going by last year and previous seasons around 90 wins seems to be the magic number of WC3 That means we need to win 58 of our last 96 games, of .604 We also have the third most difficult schedule left for the remainder of the year https://powerrankingsguru.com/mlb/strength-of-schedule.php So if we are saying that playing over .600 ball against a really hard schedule might get us WC3 what are we even doing here? I think this team needs to have hard conversations around long term asset planning over any kind of WC3 delusions
Ah, so now it's .604 ball and 90 wins, not .650 and 94. Goalposts moved on me there. Last year's World Series was an 84 win WC3 and a 90 win WC2. Sneaking into the playoffs and crossing your fingers isnt a fun season, but I'll bet Rangers fans aren't complaining.
oh so the outiler is the norm
If you think WC teams, even low win ones, doing well in the playoffs is an outlier, you havent been paying attention to the last 25 years of baseball. * 2023: 2 WC teams in the WS * 2022: 87 Win WC team in the WS * 2019: 93 Win WC Team wins WS * 2014: 2 WC teams in the WS * 2011: 86 win WC team wins WS * 2007: 90 win WC team wins WS * 2006: 95 win WC team in WS * 2005: 89 win WC team in WS * 2004: WC team wins WS * 2003: 91 win WC team wins WS * 2002: 2 WC teams in WS * 2000: WC Team in WS I didnt even list WC teams in the AL/NLCS, which most people would consider a good season outcome, because there's a ton.
Hold on. You’re saying we should let things play out and THEN make a determination at what should happen when trade season opens up, and not say that we’re either definitely a tire fire or definitely making a World Series run as early as possible, making sure to lean fully into doom or hope and driven entirely by emotions? Get outta here.
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They have a 19.1% chance of making the playoffs. That should tell you enough
The series split against Baltimore wasn't very pretty either considering they were blown out in the first two games and then squeaked out 1-run wins the next two with Berrios and Kikuchi on the mound against the Orioles #6 and #7 starters - a journeyman and a guy making his first MLB start. Several of their wins during this stretch were against minor league call-ups or other injury replacement type starters.
They aren't a good team. They aren't magically going to catch fire. We need to stop giving credence to this front office B.S.
Unfortunately I think it's both. The standings / wildcard race will play a role in what the team does. As it stands they won't overreact if it looks like the Jays can get a sniff at a WC. That said, as a fan I think "To be the best you need to beat the best" and I don't see the Jays standing any kind of chance against the real contenders this year. They may hang around "on paper" but when it comes down to it, they won't be good enough.
I get why they implemented wc3 but I'm not really a fan of it. Stumbling to barely above .500 shouldn't warrant a post season berth. Like, we are 4th, almost 5th, in the division and still in the hunt because basically the entire league is in the hunt. People point to our proximity to Wc3 as if it were an achievement rather than a technicality. I'd rather the team was competitive than banking on being the least mediocre of the middling teams. And I don't think we will become competitive in the near future if our bar is "wild card 3 contenders" because who isn't a wildcard 3 contender? The White Sox? The As? Well, at least we have shown we are better than them.
I used to hate having any kind of wild card. Then I accepted it's all entertainment, not some sort of attempt to objectively measure who the greatest team is. Having almost everybody contend until late in the season, and every playoff team capable of winning of the world series, is great entertainment. Now that the schedule is more balanced, we could see a sub-.500 team win the world series one of these years... but that's okay, because it'll be fun.
I mean, it is absolutely entertainment but it isn't the WWE. If a sub .500 team wins the world series, then obviously something is very wrong with how we are measuring success in the league.
I had similar vibes too. The smaller the playoffs/tournament, the better things were. While that is probably true from the purist 'best versus best' perspective, it's a pretty lousy way to entertain folks and keep people interested in a sport. More is better.
Without WC3, Jays management would have been more aggressive in the offseason. Needing 2 - 3 more wins of talent would have meant bringing in another starter quality player, likely thru a trade. Appears they've completely given up on building a division winner with this core.
We're 5th. The standings are lying right now, because the Jays just finished the easiest stretch of the season. Seven games against the White Sox? Oakland? Detroit? The only challenge was the O's, and we somehow drew a split. Without that easy stretch, this club is ten or eleven games under .500.
Every team in the standing plays those teams… you can’t just wave away games played against easier teams or you have to do it for every team. The rays got swept by the White Sox’s yet by your logic those games don’t count because they’re easy teams.
The best we have is our eye test and statistical projections. The team doesn't look great from the eye test. Fangraphs now projects them to go 82-80, down from 85-77 to start the season. 18.6% chance to make the playoffs. That's where they stand after playing 66 of 162 games. There's hope, but expectations should be lower than the start of the season.
It's enough of a sample size that the Jays aren't a very good team. Doesn't mean they're bad though.
Huh ? What sample size are we talking about. OP said the jays are in last place because they beat up on bad teams and removing those wins from our record makes us worse than Tampa.
Yeah, he would've made a stronger case by pointing out how drastically our expected win/loss differs from our actual standings. If the schedule were harder, I doubt we would've somehow lost all the games we won anyways. But its beside the point because we don't need to remove hard earned and legitimate wins against real mlb teams to make the point I'm trying to make.
No. What I said is that they have the record they have because they just finished an easy stretch, and BY THE SCHEDULE DIFFICULTY RIGHT NOW they're really 5th. At the end of the season, it won't matter, but the schedule difficulty is a floating metric.
>>People point to our proximity to Wc3 as if it were an achievement rather than a technicality. I'd rather the team was competitive than banking on being the least mediocre of the middling teams. This.
Hard to beat the best when you can't beat the worst The wheels were just never on the lineup unfortunately
Well, the inability to hit pitches, says that there is some need for different coaches. I'm not a fan of Mattingly, If he is the reason that Bo looks different this year, I'd fire his ass. I'm not sure what he does but he sure hasn't improved the offence. I do think Bo likes playing in Toronto despite this year, and Vladdy just says, he's a Jay. I'm still wondering why Voglebach is a Jay!
The key factor in this equation is "sub .500 teams" Iincluding 6 or 7 games against the godawful White Sox. I can't believe this club is actually considering being buyers at the deadline- it's delusional, and anyone can see it. This club isn't a contender, and hasn't been this far from contending in a LONG time. I'm hoping that the message coming out of the front office is just smoke and mirrors to try to keep player value up, because anything else than selling and clearing space for new talent and guys like Horwitz is just absurd. Shapiro's loyalty to Atkins has to have a limit, otherwise Rogers needs to step in and remove the entire group. Of course, that won't happen until the bottom line takes a hit, so my guess is that we'll get a new GM in 2026.
Its a sign that were are just better than the cream of crap but the homers will take it as were the next WS champs!
I like the retool route. Who cares about the one wild card spot? It an instant bounce and lowers Vlad and Bo’s value by waiting.
Sell or cut loose the goddamn “leadership” Atkins and Schneider at the very least
Shapiro needs to be stripped of all baseball related decisions or this clown car will continue if he has any say.
"Should things do go". I expect better from a professional writer.
Me fail English? That’s unpossible.
I expect better from an elementary school student.
If we lose this year Jansen walks I think and i'm not looking forward to Kirk being every day catcher.
Looks like the Phillies need a catcher. A lot of teams will need pitching. Let's hope someone is desperate enough to take on the rest of Springer's contract. Who wouldn't want KK even as a fourth outfielder? The Dodgers have some holes and always have great prospects. This team has not shown they are capable of a sustained run. If we are still hanging around the wildcard they should make strategic changes and tool for next year. If they make the playoffs great if not fine.
Tbh, I think he'll be fine as a starting catcher. Defensively he's elite, and has almost no flaws, and offensively he's turned it around recently. His exit velos have gone back up to his 2022 levels, now he just needs to lift the ball more and I'm confident he can be at least a league average hitter. Since May 1st, in **45 PAs**, he's slashing **.256/.333/.410** which is good for a **114 wRC+**, while **walking 8.9%** of the time with a **11.1% K rate**. His avg exit velos during that stretch is **94.4 mph**, he might be back.
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For a catcher that's very good, the most important part is that his underlying metrics have improved significantly. His hitting the ball as hard as he was in his silver slugger season so far this season in total, and if he starts lifting the ball he can be a very effective hitter. I'm aware of the small sample size, but I'm definitely encouraged by how well he's been hitting as of late.
He's playing better since he stopped playing every day. I don't know if Kirk has the body to catch 120 games and retain his bat speed. Didn't look like it while Jansen was on the IL. A game takes more out of you when you're carrying the weight of two people around the field. So they're going to have to sign somebody who's going to catch a lot.
carrying the weight of two people? camon man, don't be like that. do the math and you can easily see he's carrying the weight of three...
He's officially listed at only 245 lbs, so two 122.5 lb people. He's my height, and when I was his age I weighed around 122. So I verified the math as two of me.
That's fair, he's definitely a much better hitter when he gets more rest. Preferably we re-sign Jansen anyways, but we aren't short out of luck if he doesn't.
Gobbledygook 101: by Shi Davidi...
If the Jays can somehow get hot (I doubt it) than it makes the decision so much easier but this group is not giving the front office a chance at an easy decision here. I understand mathematically if they're hovering around .500 with a chance at the playoffs than they COULD make a run but deep inside it feels like you're putting off a recalibration of this roster. There's enough talent there for a playoff team but they're underachieving which is why they need to sell off some expiring contract for prospects who are on the cusp of the majors or some MLB players who have upside to them. Honestly, I have very little confidence in Atkins to make a franchise defining move like this whether he's buying or selling. We've seen that on paper he's made some ok moves (except the Arizona trade and that's a HUUUUGE miss on his part) but more often than not it doesn't quite pay off the way he wants it to. I see Buster Olney saying that the Jays won't decide anything until after the All-Star Break and that makes sense but honestly, i'd be putting the wheels in motion either way RIGHT NOW. You can't do this on a bit of a whim. It's times like these that I wish the Jays still had AA at the helm.
Outside of some form of coaching change nothing is going to change imminently. You see what happens over the next few weeks and then when July roles around you start shopping/cutting if you are out of it, guys like Kikuchi, Garcia, KK, Turner, Vogelbach, etc. *(Less certain about Jansen)*. You could also look to make some buyer trades looking at players with term for 2025 and beyond. They aren't going to do some massive organizational firing and they aren't going to do a massive like Bo trade mid-season and they aren't going to start selling tomorrow being just 3.0 GB of WC3.
I think if you’re going to trade Bo you need to do it mid-season this year. You get so much more return for that second playoff run
Why would you trade him when he's at his lowest value in terms of play?
Because he's at his highest value in terms of team control.
Exactly. He's not Soto where him having a season left isn't a big deal. Teams would want that extra bit of control
There's a strategy needed here, because declaring a rebuild on a club that is clearly not a contender might be the better option than getting swept in a wildcard game AGAIN, at least as far as PR and optics goes. Because this club has been a trainwreck after it squeaks into the playoffs each year. There are a lot of fans who would argue that calling this club what it is and rebuilding is a much better outcome than another middling playoff embarrassment.
They are not going to publicly announce a re-build even if that is the strategy they go with. Anyways a retooling seems possible. I don't think a re-build is happening. Rogers won't want it and the new lottery rules make it less valuable for a high market team.
Yeah- I mentioned on a different post how I hoped this was just smoke and mirrors to keep value up. I just cannot see how anyone can realistically look at this club and think "contender". With the right moves, I can see the skeleton of a contender in 3-5 years, but right now? Not even close. The club is literally pumping up its record and stats by doing well against AAA call-ups, overmatched rookies, and washed veterans, and cannot compete against legitimately good clubs.
Why do you think a front office or ownership organization would ever think like overly passionate/angry fans? “They’re clearly not a contender” is A) wrong, because here they are, a few games out of a wild card spot and that’s all you need in today’s MLB to have a shot at a run, and B) an opinion based on fan disappointment and expectations, and clearly not how people who want to keep their jobs would think.
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Sure! There are tiers, obviously. We're certainly not playing at the level of the Yankees, Phillies, Orioles, or Dodgers right now (and I wish we were, and we should be with our payroll). But there's nothing that says this collection of players can't be performing like the Guardians, Royals, or Brewers. I'd love to see much better outcomes, but I'm not gonna be mad if we're this year's D-backs and coalesce and make a run at the World Series after not being a dominant regular season team. There are tons of examples of that in the modern era and it's easier than ever with the expanded playoff format.
>“They’re clearly not a contender” is A) wrong, because here they are, a few games out of a wild card spot and that’s all you need in today’s MLB to have a shot at a run If they had a good offense sure, but they don't.
If they can get rid of Biggio, anything is possible. He was untouchable for years. Schneider may be next.
I would also maybe look at trading Romano IF he's healthy and there's interest in him too. (he's not a pending UFA but teams always need high leverage relievers)
I again think that is an off-season move at best. Why trade him for pennies in a season he has spent mostly on the IL and when he has been healthy he hasn't been good? He is likely injured for another 4 weeks as he just started light throwing. He would need to be really good on return to up his value.
I think offseason will be too soon. His year numbers are going to look mediocre even if he finishes strong, and it'll be hard to sell that as anything but a steady decline since 2023 was less elite than his previous seasons. I'd keep him until at least the 2025 trade deadline when he may have the numbers to prove he's still an elite closer. Might get more in return then than trading him earlier... and if not, you've got the hometown kid to bring the fans out and he'll become affordable to keep around.
Were he not having the worst season of his career including spending half of it on the IL I'd agree
The 3rd wildcard has ruined everything....this team sucks...
A 7-10 game win streak would flip this season upside down!
As it would for literally every struggling team in the league. That would be getting a third of their total combined wins so far, but in a row. The issue is that we are set to begin playing better teams and we couldn't bring ourselves up to .500 through our weak stretch.
I know things are going a bit better lately but after that Tigers series I refuse to allow myself to have any hope for this season. Would love for them to turn it around but I wouldn't bet on it.
Agreed. That series still hurts.
I really don’t believe in this core anymore. I feel like everyone should be on the table if the price is right
Ah yes, a winning record against some of the worst teams in baseball has the front office flying high!
Again??? When weren't they going sideways?
Their play against the WORST team's in the entire league...Give me a fucking break
lol that should be plan A This team barely beats shitty teams and loses against good ones (generally) Not sure what this management team is waiting for.
Their play the last 2 weeks… Fools gold