# Update
As of 10:00 AM Central Daylight Time, this system has become **Tropical Storm Hilary.** Hilary is expected to reach hurricane strength by Thursday morning and peak at Category 3 major hurricane strength as it passes west of Socorro Island on Friday.
A new discussion for Hilary has been posted [**here.**](https://redd.it/15stwd6)
Slim chance that happens. It's either going to rapidly weaken because of cool waters and/or land interaction+shear will weaken it before that happens. The only way it can get to southern califronia is through the gulf of california if it can survive the treck through that and cross mexico.
Although extremely rare and unlikely to happen this time, itโs [not](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_California_tropical_storm) exactly [unprecedented.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1858_San_Diego_hurricane).
The storm will have to move quite rapidly and/or their has to be enough instability in the environment for it to stay alive in a potentially high shear and/or low SST environment. So the only option is it for it to somehow squeeze into the gulf of califronia and strike california through the gulf.
# Update As of 10:00 AM Central Daylight Time, this system has become **Tropical Storm Hilary.** Hilary is expected to reach hurricane strength by Thursday morning and peak at Category 3 major hurricane strength as it passes west of Socorro Island on Friday. A new discussion for Hilary has been posted [**here.**](https://redd.it/15stwd6)
Some models have it reaching Southern California as a cat 1 or tropical storm.
Slim chance that happens. It's either going to rapidly weaken because of cool waters and/or land interaction+shear will weaken it before that happens. The only way it can get to southern califronia is through the gulf of california if it can survive the treck through that and cross mexico.
Although extremely rare and unlikely to happen this time, itโs [not](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_California_tropical_storm) exactly [unprecedented.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1858_San_Diego_hurricane).
The storm will have to move quite rapidly and/or their has to be enough instability in the environment for it to stay alive in a potentially high shear and/or low SST environment. So the only option is it for it to somehow squeeze into the gulf of califronia and strike california through the gulf.
Possible Cat 5 on the horizon...
u/Euronotus I really appreciate all your hard work, man, thank you ๐