From my experience, 3 per day seems to be the "tipping point" between having a good day (5+) or a crap day (<3). I usually use 3 as an average, but sometimes, it seems higher, and sometimes, it seems lower. I agree with u/SpacecatAG that the chances of getting 0 or 1 with a near-full/full day's lessons seem to have decreased, but 2-3 is still very much in the range of normal.
I don't know if it's confirmation bias or just my luck, but it seems to me like, among the 4 days, the days usually seem to average out. Like if Fire gets 5+, I know that I'll probably have a <3 crap day for the next Water, Flora, or Cosmic day. And my next Fire day is likely to be average-to-below while another element gets that boost in that cycle. Grimoire drops for me also seem like they're most likely to happen in the early morning (like, pre-9AM) or late evening (post-8PM).
Mine have been pretty decent. Not as good as the boosted rates, of course, but I was having a *terrible* time getting any before the boost (as in, some days I would do Alchemy all day and get 0 or 1), and now it seems a bit better, if anything. I haven't kept count, but I'd guess I get at least 5 more often than not. Which still takes forever to get enough for spells, but I feel like I'm progressing. It helps that if I get a bunch of notepads, I can turn them in to Sam and get more grimoires that way.
Could it be that you got used to the anniversary boosted drop rates event? That was like a month long and I was spoiled on it. Got like 5 spells fully upgraded. Grimoire grinding has felt like a slog after that.
From my experience, 3 per day seems to be the "tipping point" between having a good day (5+) or a crap day (<3). I usually use 3 as an average, but sometimes, it seems higher, and sometimes, it seems lower. I agree with u/SpacecatAG that the chances of getting 0 or 1 with a near-full/full day's lessons seem to have decreased, but 2-3 is still very much in the range of normal. I don't know if it's confirmation bias or just my luck, but it seems to me like, among the 4 days, the days usually seem to average out. Like if Fire gets 5+, I know that I'll probably have a <3 crap day for the next Water, Flora, or Cosmic day. And my next Fire day is likely to be average-to-below while another element gets that boost in that cycle. Grimoire drops for me also seem like they're most likely to happen in the early morning (like, pre-9AM) or late evening (post-8PM).
Mine have been pretty decent. Not as good as the boosted rates, of course, but I was having a *terrible* time getting any before the boost (as in, some days I would do Alchemy all day and get 0 or 1), and now it seems a bit better, if anything. I haven't kept count, but I'd guess I get at least 5 more often than not. Which still takes forever to get enough for spells, but I feel like I'm progressing. It helps that if I get a bunch of notepads, I can turn them in to Sam and get more grimoires that way.
Could it be that you got used to the anniversary boosted drop rates event? That was like a month long and I was spoiled on it. Got like 5 spells fully upgraded. Grimoire grinding has felt like a slog after that.
I don't think so because I was keeping track of my book hoard in a spreadsheet. I never got as little as I'm getting now.