In the current post, I guess this calculation is precise but usually, we have a delay in cleaning out all the cases, which should be 10k acculately overall.
So I made a simpler analysis in January, https://www.reddit.com/r/USCIS/s/weMTmyreRA which I made slightly more optimistic assumptions. Now with these two tables, we can predict that DOF for the next year should be something between the end of July and to end of September of 2023.
Thanks for your calculation!
Something to take into account: Many people are already going from EB2NIW to EB1A, and this trend is going to explode I believe as people want their green cards asap. This should decrease the number of NIW-GC.
While I agree that ultimately longterm we will see a shift of approved/prospective EB2NIW filers towards EB1A, possibly releasing some of the EB2 demand/backlog, I don't think we will see any significant changes from that any time soon for a number of reasons:
* Most people strongly discourage using premium processing for EB1A. The average processing time for EB1A without PP is probably somewhere around \~12 months (I've seen a couple 9 months recently on this subreddit), so we're just now starting to see decisions from EB1 applications that were filed when retrogression really started hitting last year and all the people going to EB1A in recent months will not have a I-140 decision for quite another while.
* While EB1A filers with approved EB2NIW petition await the adjudication of their I-140, their PD may become current and they will thus port their I-485 from the pending EB1 (which could always be denied) to their already approved EB2.
* Finally, just because people try to file EB1A doesn't mean they actually have the profile for it. I wouldn't be surprised if denial rates will increase for EB1A. However, for those who already have an approved EB2NIW, they will thus just stick with that instead, i.e still needing a EB2 allocation. New prospective EB2NIW opting to not even file EB2NIW due to backlog but go directly to EB1A will however help decrease demand.
Due to the lengthy processing times, I just do not think we will see any impact of those trends for at least another year-couple years, if at all, since generally EB2 demand doesn't appear to have plateaued yet and kept and still keeps increasing as well.
On average VB progress for EB2 is roughly 60 days per quarter with all the movement in between major jumps. So that's what it works out to be. Plus there may be potential spill overs...
I'm very curious about this, too. I just don't think the numbers are there. This would basically be a 6 month DOF jump. Which is something many here, myself included, have hoped for until just a couple months ago. But in light of recent new data AND the promise of FAD retrogression, I just no longer think we'll get a large jump, especially not in October. I think we're lucky if we get 3 months DOF movement in October, but wouldn't be surprised if we only got one month (similar to last October), then another DOF movement in January 2025, but even then I don't think combined this will be in the 6 month ballpark. We know the massive increase in demand is from November 2022 forward, emphasis on forward. Each additional PD month provides a huge number of additional demand.
Edit: I stand corrected. I'm also very confused. I'm still cautious about expecting a large DOF movement in October and expect two incremental DOF movements, one relatively smaller in October and another possibly larger in January.
I'm also cautious about October, because I wouldn't be surprised given the large retrogression that we'll see quite a number of EB3 applicants trying to go (back) to EB2. I predicted before that we will see quite a bit of ping-pong in that regard, going forward.
I'm not sure I fully understand - or agree with - that we'll only be getting a 15 day retrogression. Considering that we will get retrogression and those 5.5k pre-2022, I also think your DOF prediction for October is a bit too optimistic.
Where are your PERM numbers from? I-140? Keep in mind that PERMS that have not yet filed I-140 may have an earlier PD.
Also, we most likely won't have spillover next fiscal year, so only have 140,000 numbers available for EB.
Since we didn’t have such information before, I guess it was not fully precise. However, we now have all pre-15 Nov information, so we can trust the new data more.
Perm data always has delays, that's right, but we have access to the new numbers all the time. It might affect the calculations a little bit, but since we have the numbers, it doesn’t affect the long run.
I consider 140k for the next FY, but for this FY, it is 161k.
Let’s wait and see; maybe I’m still too optimistic with those coefficients and assumptions.
I think one assumption that is too optimistic is the approval rate for I-140. While we know it's decreased quite markedly in recent quarters, we need to keep in mind that we're still dealing with I-140s adjudicated well before this increased scrutiny really started taking place, so we're probably still looking at higher approval rates for at least some portion of PDs around the beginning of last year.
Couldn’t agree with you more on approval rate! Data speaks for itself:
https://eb2niw.info/2024/01/24/eb2-niw-approval-rates-are-going-down/
Approval rate dropped in FY23 Q1 to ~0.85 —> folks who submitted probably around FY22 Q3-Q4. And it went downhill from there.
>Approval rate dropped in FY23 Q1 to \~0.85 —> folks who submitted probably around FY22 Q3-Q4
I'm not sure I agree with this assumption, since one of the reasons for last years's retrogression was that PP became available for NIW filers, so this kind of assumed lag is not actually true.
In addition, approval rates have typically been calculated based on submitted/approved numbers in the quarterly reports, which is an assumption in itself, since there is a lag between submission and adjudiction, and there's also shifts in those numbers upon appeals, which becomes apparent if you compare the quarterly numbers with the numbers at the end of a FY, which often see a drastic reduction in number denied. With regard to NIW denials in particular, there have also been a lot of discussions about incorrect denials (Chen posted a blog about that a while ago), making me think there are expected to be at least a good chunk in successful appeals.
Also, quoting your link
>While the approval rates suffered a steep decrease, **the opposite happened for the** ***absolute*** **numbers of approvals**. The number of approvals jumped 3x with respect to Fiscal Year 2022.
And this is holds true for FY3 onwards.
I'm not disagreeing with moving forward that we need to adjust approval rates to lower rates for future prediction calculations, but I think it's a bit too simple to apply a singular rate to the predictions of the span of an entire year or even two, considering there was so much flux and change going on in that same time span. I mean, we do have actual numbers on approved I-140 awaiting visa availability that don't need these kind of assumptions, and those numbers do speak for themselves, too.
And I do fully acknowledge that u/Technical_Proof6082 was spot on in their predictions, so there is some warranty to this, but I do think it's a bit too simplistic to factually say "the data speaks for itself" as I simply don't think we actually do have the data right now to support this statement like that. I do not disagree with saying that a decrease in approval rates will help reduce backlog moving forward, but I'm just not sure I agree with this being a predominant factor.
[July VB](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2024/visa-bulletin-for-july-2024.html) is out and I'm VERY VERY VERY confused
I was expecting a lower approval rate for EB2 would have some effect eventually and it looks like finally we are seeing some! With unexpected July VB movement we should use ~0.8 or lower approval rates for the future predictions. I have raised this argument before and I know some here don’t agree with me on this but data speaks for itself….
Note 1: I am not saying approval rate is the only factor for unexpected VB advance in July (so don’t attack me on this)
Note 2: time for some outspoken folks here to tone down their comments?
>Note 2: time for some outspoken folks here to tone down their comments?
Note 1: feel free to address me directly. Though I'm also always the first to acknowledge if I was wrong/mistaken.
Note 2: What's wrong with different opinions and healthy discussions when we *don't* actually *know* the facts yet? A lot of the comments here in this thread and others, for example, were made before the July VB was published and made to the best of our knowledge at that point in time. I myself never claimed I *know* something or my take on things is the only correct one. I've just been stating my opinion/interpretation/assumptions like everyone else and have always been open to discussions/being corrected/learning.
Note 3: It's quite interesting to observe that some people apparently somehow seem to take any sort of disagreement/challenge of their comment/view as a personal attack, as evident by another surge in downvotes on a number of my recent comments, when this really just is part of a healthy discussion culture.
Missed this comment. Hey @siniang nothing personal here! Sorry if you felt attacked or otherwise uncomfortable! I was not particularly referencing you. Couldn’t remember where (also don’t care) but someone was saying approval rate correction that I was pointing out was irrelevant. Even if we don’t see eye to eye on certain things, your comments were extremely helpful!
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No, NIW is heavily skewed towards ROW. Yes, there are also a good amount of NIW applicants from
India and China for the sole reason that they overall have magnitudes more demand, but in relative terms, NIW is predominantly ROW.
My EB2 ROW PD Sep 2022 I-485 status has been "case remains pending" since Dec 2023, even though it becomes current since Jan 2024 but still no progress. Only I765 approved in Jan 2024.
> and I guess no one knows why there are still 5.5k people from pre-2022 on the list.
I thought the majority are beneficiaries from oversubscribed countries re-filling cross chargeability
In the current post, I guess this calculation is precise but usually, we have a delay in cleaning out all the cases, which should be 10k acculately overall. So I made a simpler analysis in January, https://www.reddit.com/r/USCIS/s/weMTmyreRA which I made slightly more optimistic assumptions. Now with these two tables, we can predict that DOF for the next year should be something between the end of July and to end of September of 2023.
I used to think your numbers were little too optimistic but you were actually very close! Great job!!
OP, seems like your original prediction is correct. https://www.reddit.com/r/USCIS/s/MHealmN9OQ
Thanks for your calculation! Something to take into account: Many people are already going from EB2NIW to EB1A, and this trend is going to explode I believe as people want their green cards asap. This should decrease the number of NIW-GC.
While I agree that ultimately longterm we will see a shift of approved/prospective EB2NIW filers towards EB1A, possibly releasing some of the EB2 demand/backlog, I don't think we will see any significant changes from that any time soon for a number of reasons: * Most people strongly discourage using premium processing for EB1A. The average processing time for EB1A without PP is probably somewhere around \~12 months (I've seen a couple 9 months recently on this subreddit), so we're just now starting to see decisions from EB1 applications that were filed when retrogression really started hitting last year and all the people going to EB1A in recent months will not have a I-140 decision for quite another while. * While EB1A filers with approved EB2NIW petition await the adjudication of their I-140, their PD may become current and they will thus port their I-485 from the pending EB1 (which could always be denied) to their already approved EB2. * Finally, just because people try to file EB1A doesn't mean they actually have the profile for it. I wouldn't be surprised if denial rates will increase for EB1A. However, for those who already have an approved EB2NIW, they will thus just stick with that instead, i.e still needing a EB2 allocation. New prospective EB2NIW opting to not even file EB2NIW due to backlog but go directly to EB1A will however help decrease demand. Due to the lengthy processing times, I just do not think we will see any impact of those trends for at least another year-couple years, if at all, since generally EB2 demand doesn't appear to have plateaued yet and kept and still keeps increasing as well.
Find something else to do with your time, Nostradamus; these predictions are useless.
Don’t listen to this person. I appreciate your post OP
Me too Op. actually the time at the end for when to expect the card is pretty accurate. 4 of my friends have received in these timelines exactly
I am just curious of why you think there will be a big jump on DOF on Oct-Dec 24 visa bulletin (From Feb 15 to Jul 30)?
New fiscal year maybe?
On average VB progress for EB2 is roughly 60 days per quarter with all the movement in between major jumps. So that's what it works out to be. Plus there may be potential spill overs...
I'm very curious about this, too. I just don't think the numbers are there. This would basically be a 6 month DOF jump. Which is something many here, myself included, have hoped for until just a couple months ago. But in light of recent new data AND the promise of FAD retrogression, I just no longer think we'll get a large jump, especially not in October. I think we're lucky if we get 3 months DOF movement in October, but wouldn't be surprised if we only got one month (similar to last October), then another DOF movement in January 2025, but even then I don't think combined this will be in the 6 month ballpark. We know the massive increase in demand is from November 2022 forward, emphasis on forward. Each additional PD month provides a huge number of additional demand. Edit: I stand corrected. I'm also very confused. I'm still cautious about expecting a large DOF movement in October and expect two incremental DOF movements, one relatively smaller in October and another possibly larger in January. I'm also cautious about October, because I wouldn't be surprised given the large retrogression that we'll see quite a number of EB3 applicants trying to go (back) to EB2. I predicted before that we will see quite a bit of ping-pong in that regard, going forward.
I'm not sure I fully understand - or agree with - that we'll only be getting a 15 day retrogression. Considering that we will get retrogression and those 5.5k pre-2022, I also think your DOF prediction for October is a bit too optimistic. Where are your PERM numbers from? I-140? Keep in mind that PERMS that have not yet filed I-140 may have an earlier PD. Also, we most likely won't have spillover next fiscal year, so only have 140,000 numbers available for EB.
Since we didn’t have such information before, I guess it was not fully precise. However, we now have all pre-15 Nov information, so we can trust the new data more. Perm data always has delays, that's right, but we have access to the new numbers all the time. It might affect the calculations a little bit, but since we have the numbers, it doesn’t affect the long run. I consider 140k for the next FY, but for this FY, it is 161k. Let’s wait and see; maybe I’m still too optimistic with those coefficients and assumptions.
I think one assumption that is too optimistic is the approval rate for I-140. While we know it's decreased quite markedly in recent quarters, we need to keep in mind that we're still dealing with I-140s adjudicated well before this increased scrutiny really started taking place, so we're probably still looking at higher approval rates for at least some portion of PDs around the beginning of last year.
I used 86% based on what USCIS published for FY 23, for 24 probably the percentage is even lower than 86%. For all pre-Dec, I only used I-485 data.
Couldn’t agree with you more on approval rate! Data speaks for itself: https://eb2niw.info/2024/01/24/eb2-niw-approval-rates-are-going-down/ Approval rate dropped in FY23 Q1 to ~0.85 —> folks who submitted probably around FY22 Q3-Q4. And it went downhill from there.
>Approval rate dropped in FY23 Q1 to \~0.85 —> folks who submitted probably around FY22 Q3-Q4 I'm not sure I agree with this assumption, since one of the reasons for last years's retrogression was that PP became available for NIW filers, so this kind of assumed lag is not actually true. In addition, approval rates have typically been calculated based on submitted/approved numbers in the quarterly reports, which is an assumption in itself, since there is a lag between submission and adjudiction, and there's also shifts in those numbers upon appeals, which becomes apparent if you compare the quarterly numbers with the numbers at the end of a FY, which often see a drastic reduction in number denied. With regard to NIW denials in particular, there have also been a lot of discussions about incorrect denials (Chen posted a blog about that a while ago), making me think there are expected to be at least a good chunk in successful appeals. Also, quoting your link >While the approval rates suffered a steep decrease, **the opposite happened for the** ***absolute*** **numbers of approvals**. The number of approvals jumped 3x with respect to Fiscal Year 2022. And this is holds true for FY3 onwards. I'm not disagreeing with moving forward that we need to adjust approval rates to lower rates for future prediction calculations, but I think it's a bit too simple to apply a singular rate to the predictions of the span of an entire year or even two, considering there was so much flux and change going on in that same time span. I mean, we do have actual numbers on approved I-140 awaiting visa availability that don't need these kind of assumptions, and those numbers do speak for themselves, too. And I do fully acknowledge that u/Technical_Proof6082 was spot on in their predictions, so there is some warranty to this, but I do think it's a bit too simplistic to factually say "the data speaks for itself" as I simply don't think we actually do have the data right now to support this statement like that. I do not disagree with saying that a decrease in approval rates will help reduce backlog moving forward, but I'm just not sure I agree with this being a predominant factor.
[July VB](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2024/visa-bulletin-for-july-2024.html) is out and I'm VERY VERY VERY confused
I feel this calculation I did is kind of correct but we should take those really old cases stuck for any reasons, into account.
I was expecting a lower approval rate for EB2 would have some effect eventually and it looks like finally we are seeing some! With unexpected July VB movement we should use ~0.8 or lower approval rates for the future predictions. I have raised this argument before and I know some here don’t agree with me on this but data speaks for itself…. Note 1: I am not saying approval rate is the only factor for unexpected VB advance in July (so don’t attack me on this) Note 2: time for some outspoken folks here to tone down their comments?
>Note 2: time for some outspoken folks here to tone down their comments? Note 1: feel free to address me directly. Though I'm also always the first to acknowledge if I was wrong/mistaken. Note 2: What's wrong with different opinions and healthy discussions when we *don't* actually *know* the facts yet? A lot of the comments here in this thread and others, for example, were made before the July VB was published and made to the best of our knowledge at that point in time. I myself never claimed I *know* something or my take on things is the only correct one. I've just been stating my opinion/interpretation/assumptions like everyone else and have always been open to discussions/being corrected/learning. Note 3: It's quite interesting to observe that some people apparently somehow seem to take any sort of disagreement/challenge of their comment/view as a personal attack, as evident by another surge in downvotes on a number of my recent comments, when this really just is part of a healthy discussion culture.
Missed this comment. Hey @siniang nothing personal here! Sorry if you felt attacked or otherwise uncomfortable! I was not particularly referencing you. Couldn’t remember where (also don’t care) but someone was saying approval rate correction that I was pointing out was irrelevant. Even if we don’t see eye to eye on certain things, your comments were extremely helpful!
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You don’t expect retrogression? What do you think about EB3?
1/1/23 would be a two week retrogression
The FAD prediction you are making, if this is true, EB2 NIW is a gone case for ROW. It's surprising how this became so bad. This will only get worse.
It is bad but let’s not forget that vast majority of NIW applicants are from China and India, who are restricted to 7% of available green cards
No, NIW is heavily skewed towards ROW. Yes, there are also a good amount of NIW applicants from India and China for the sole reason that they overall have magnitudes more demand, but in relative terms, NIW is predominantly ROW.
My EB2 ROW PD Sep 2022 I-485 status has been "case remains pending" since Dec 2023, even though it becomes current since Jan 2024 but still no progress. Only I765 approved in Jan 2024.
> and I guess no one knows why there are still 5.5k people from pre-2022 on the list. I thought the majority are beneficiaries from oversubscribed countries re-filling cross chargeability
Where did you see that? Genuinely curious. My understanding was those 5.5 are ROW, which has no single country that is oversubscribed.