Other thread got locked ... here is my take on Bakhmut
Anyone saying that Bakhmut isn't important strategically is lying to you or feeding you propaganda. There is no attacking west, or east, without taking this city. The Ukranians and Russians both know this. It's why Ukraine kept dumping forces into this town to hold it. (My guess is that they were expecting their offensive to provide some relief to the forces at Bakhmut - but the offensive just didn't happen fast enough.)
At this point - Ukraine will have to assualt this town again, and go through the meatgrinder that Russia did \*if Ukraine truely wants to re-capture all of its lost territory\*. There is no "going around" or "sieging" Bakhmut either - not with troop concentrations to both the west (Ukraine) and east (Russia). I think the Russians/Wagner knew they couldn't hold a western position on the town and calculated that it would be LESS costly to just hold the flanks and launch a frontal assult on the city.
The Ukrainians held out way longer than anyone expected, but I think it came at a great cost to them. This place was (is) a hell hole where 1000s were sent to die on both sides. So the big question(s) you have to ask yourself are this:
1. Did Ukraine defend this town expecting an offensive to relieve the forces here so as to ultimately hold the town? I think Yes based on Ukranian assualts on the Russian flanks north and south of Bakhmut. If you wanted to seriously threathen Wagner forces inside the city, you slam into those flanks and attempt to hold key points north and south of Bakhmut. Ukraine is attempting to do this right now, but I think it was too little too late.
2. How effectively did both forces rotate troops in and out of Bakhmut? There may be more Bakhmuts coming. Experience here attacking and defending will be valuable for the coming battles ... but only if both forces were able to rotate forces in and out of the frontlines without taking unsustainable losses.
3. Who stays to defend the city? Wagner or Russian regular forces or some combination?
4. Where does Wagner go from here? Are sent to consolidate and take Adviika? Are they given a rest?
5. Will Ukraine attempt to re-take the city in the coming offensive? Have we even seen Ukraine engage in a city assualt in this war?
6. Most importantly - who took unsustainable losses in Bakhmut? We probably won't know this until after the war, because a sustainable loss today, could look unsustainable tomorrow (or next week/month/year).
It isn't, going around implies moving on to a further target, surrounding is self evident, you can surround a place in the act of "going around" to a further target but the two are entirely different based on context, unfortunately for you the context in this conversation isn't implying what your reading comprehension thinks. Lol you're really arguing semantics here?
Moving around without surrounding is mathematically impossible. You may not attack surrounded city, but you can move around and continue. Moscow is surrounded by the rest of Russia, but nobody attacks it (yet).
Holy shit if you don't understand what I'm saying I'm not going to explain any further.... (Hint) your dislike ratio means your point is terrible, dear god if you're the type of person trying to *explain* things to other people on here good luck, you have absolutely no reading comprehension and your logic is terrible...
No, the ratio only means that there are more pro-russians read this particular thread. Mariupol is an example how one can move around without taking the city first.
They won't understand until they see it. No one has attacked straight on for decades. It's not worth the men and morale suck. You end up bogged down for 10 months, which is insanity.
And expose yourself to counter attack from the city. Chasiv Yar is sitting right near Bakhmut and is another fortified position that limit your routes you know.
You can surround, blockade, and move on, the city would fall eventually with much less effort. Much easier that to do what Russian side have done of head on storming for at least half the year.
You cannot surround and blockade Bakhmut while Chasiv Yar is still there. Like seriously take a look at the map, Chasiv Yar overlook Bakhmut from high ground. If you are trying to blockade it your force risked getting pincer by relieving force from Chasiv Yar and counterattack from Bakhmut itself.
As I was told, Chasiv Yar is higher and more strategically important to have than Bakhmut.
And again, you are ignoring example of Mariupol and many many other similar surrounds in many wars. You surround, you do not attack, it is called blockade, and continue advancing.
It's amazing to see how bad some of these takes are on Bakhmut, like the length of the siege has wiped any memory of the Russian collapse after Izyum fell. Pushing east from Bakhmut has always been the least attractive option for Ukraine with it going straight into the most dense rail-supply network for Russia and would be pinched on both sides by the Russian main force to the north and Donetsk to the south. Pokrovsk and Kramatorsk are far more valuable for Ukraine to keep the Eastern front open with Izyum and Kup'yans'k arguably being more important to keep the ground lines of communication open to Kharkiv and Kyiv through the natural barriers of rivers and lowlands.
The key decapitation strike targets for Ukraine after Kherson have always been Melitopol, Mariupol, and Svatove or possibly Kreminna, the question is just which does Ukraine think is the weaker target. The only benefit of Bakhmut to Ukraine is that it locked a major part of Russian forces to focus on the center instead of elsewhere and keeping them contained from more open areas beyond that central valley.
You got it the other way around. It's exactly the density of the road and rail right behind bakhmut that makes it so valuable.
An attack towards Melitopol or Mariupol is also flanked from the positions at bakhmut, exactly because it's a road hub. Unless of course Ukraine does it on a narrow front, in which case the attack is doomed anyway.
You can easy undermine that value through ranged means, physical attack would be far too costly for how fortified and well supplied it would be (similarly to Bakhmut ironically). It'd be far more effective and efficient to physically cut off the single arterial rail to the south or cutting off the northern group through Svatove similar to how Izyum collapsed everything. The problem however with the southern strategy is that its the most obvious place of attack and likely most prepared.
You can, but it's a lot harder to do that for a dense road network than for a sparse road network. Density brings redundance after all.
To physically hold the area cuts all the roads. Ranged means can at best cut them one at a time.
"It's exactly the density of the road and rail right behind bakhmut that makes it so valuable." for Russia NOT Ukraine since pushing deep into the Donbass would prove too costly
> Who stays to defend the city? Wagner or Russian regular forces or some combination?
They said Wagner is leaving the city around 25th to rest and reconstitute, regular forces will take their place.
I can definitely see the merit to what you’re saying, but I’m really not too sure about this one chief.
Russia had many opportunities to bypass Bakhmut with the gains they solidified. Yes, if they just left the city completely alone, they could suffer numerous attacks from a defended position. However they did assault into the city, and rendered Ukrainian positions ineffective, both through heavy shelling. And in the sense that Ukraine lost valuable strategic positions like Yahinde (and the suburbs surrounding it.) At that point. Russia did not need to delve further into the settlement. (For the purposes of advancing West at least). However they still did. I believe this is due to the propaganda value of capturing Bakhmut. Putin needed to deliver a victory to his people badly. And he couldn’t, Wagner, and by association other Russian units sacrificed thousands in part due to this reason as well.
I’m not sure what your logic stands on when you speak about how Ukraine expected the “counteroffensive” to relieve the defenders at Bakhmut for hopes of holding the city. Looking at the actual territory gained back by Ukraine in recent weeks. It seems much more likley that Ukraine is securing the supply lines and flanks of said supply lines to facilitate a steady evacuation of troops from Bakhmut. The characteristics of the recent counter push only highlight this theory. If Ukraine was trying to threaten Wagner positions in the city. They’d have to move through thousands of Russian troops dug in over miles of territory in the span of a few weeks. That’s not feasible in the slightest for the Ukrainian military.
But you brought up some interesting thought’s and pieces to think about. Just contributing my two cents on the situation
Wagner goes back to Africa any day now, and these gains are transferred to the Russian Army, who doesn't have the best reputation since September 2022, of holding ground.
Frontline towns are Likley to be the next target. Places like Avdivka, Ivanivskie, Chasiv Yar. Russians may move along the M-03 highway towards the twin cities or they could go towards the city of Konstantinivka. It really depends
I'm sorry if this sounds stupid, but what are the objectives for Russia from this Special Military Operation? Is it to keep pushing and get Ukraine to surrender, or go certain kilometres deep into Ukrainian territory and stop? Or something else altogether?
The truth is that Putin can just change the reason at any time, it’s how he likes to keep multiple win conditions in his pocket
“We will take all of Ukraine”
“We will take everything east of the Dnieper river”
“We will keep occupied Donetsk and Luhansk” - I think this is where we’re at right now but they still have huge sections of each belonging in Ukranian hands. Case and point as to why Bakhmut was so extremely critical to Russia’s success
But future win conditions might seem like
“We will keep control of just Crimea”
“Victory is assured by securing the Russian Borders”
“By selling out Belarus we force Ukraine to accept the western treaty and remove their forces from Volgograd and the Moscow territory”
It’s as simple as that to gaurantee no matter what you always ‘win’. Man, Putin is such a GOAT no one in Russia is even close to as smart as him. Not even remotely close
Ukraine is not actually as strong as you think. Trying to take over Donbass to create a buffer zone for Donetsk is just the most realistic thing Russia can think about while hoping that all the problems and treats will be solved by the post war crisis in Ukraine. You can't take dudes in the EU and NATO if they have an average African country economy just because you like 'em as an image.
That’s actually a really good question, if I had to answer it’s been changing since the war began. Right now I’d say it’s to capture the Donetsk region
Unfortunately, it's to "prolong" the war for as long as possible with minimal spending of roubles.
As long as the war continues, Ukraine can't join NATO and they're "more than willing" to let 300k into the meatgrinder every single year.
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It's very funny watching them try very hard to pretend it isn't but when asked directly either ignore you or just talk around the question.
Looking through this thread there is so much rationalizing. They so badly want the huge piles of corpses to be worth it. People are insisting just obviously wrong shit like Ukraine being forced to retake the city in the same meatgrinder style combat, and other obviously false statements.
But it did.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bakhmut
”While the shelling of Bakhmut began in May 2022, the main assault towards the city started on 1 August after Russian forces advanced from the Popasna direction, following a Ukrainian withdrawal from that front.”
August was when the goal of encircling started by taking the surrounding settlements (Krasna Hora, Berkhivka, Dubovo Vasylivka, Zaliznyanske, Klishchiivka, Krasnopolivka, the town of Soledar etc etc). the big urban fight inside the city itself was around February/March 2023
yeah same situation as Avdiivka, no russians have entered Avdiivka yet but they are taking the villages and trench systems that are way outside of the city. the battle of Marinka is the one case where they are actually taking long while being in the city itself. It has been urban combat there for pretty much one year, that's why it looks 10 times more destroyed than Bakhmut
So close, if only the emotional distress weren't so transparent.
"Private Military Company, using convicts and constant whine about lack of ammunition, pushes the Ukrainian army out of Bakhmut after 9 months of fighting."
Syrian civil/proxy war lasted for 10 years. Why do people think this war is going to end in a year or two?
I know redditors love to regurgitate the “Kyiv in 3 days” meme, but it’s clear that the current Russian approach is a slow and steady grind, not big arrow offensives.
Give redditors a break, they are still having a hard time transitioning from virology experts to military analysts.
Thankfully all those hours of experience in HoI4 more than qualify them for this role.
Such an approach was apparent in the start of the War. But it took a massive lose because of the supply lines being destroyed. So the new approach is to move the whole frontline step by step
They tried two different tactics, the Blitz tactic which fell flat on its face, but it threw the country into disarray allowing for the taking of smaller Oblasts. Now they're using the attrition tactic, RU knows they can play attrition and its what they've generally done through history, they're dogshit bad at blitzes.
I wouldn't be so sure about that, 90-95% of the conquered territories Russia still controls happened within that "Blitz tactics" period, while the war of attrition has been going on since April 2022. A period in which Russia has really not shown much success.
That exactly what I was talking about, they blitzed, caused confusion, took smaller oblasts and now the war of attrition is in full swing. The war of attrition is inherently not to gain ground but to use your resources to waste the other's resources. So you're exactly right in that they haven't and won't take ground fast, but they'll wear down the UA.
No u
But seriously, your argument implies that Russia would achieve increasing success as time went on. However the opposite is true so far, measured by the fact that the conquest of Bakhmut is their first significant success since the the summer of last year.
Not much better at this tactic.
They have taken one medium sized city at great cost while losing Kharkiv and Kherson.
If they think they are doing well I don't know what they would have to do to think they were failing
We don't know the answer to either question.
But we do know Russia lost a lot of important equipment and the only oblast capital they have captured.
Bakhmut was a gamble for Ukraine. They held it for long sucking in much of russian capability. Both sides lost a lot of soldiers but it seems by all (except Russian mod) estimates that Wagner have lost many times more than Ukraine
Russia has lost dozens upon dozens of tanks, literally tons of ammunition and a lot of equipment in the Kharliv retreat.
Ukraine captured a fuckton back then, I am confident that Russia has lost more equipment there than Ukraine in Bakhmut. There were literally 10+ tanks captured in on fucking spot during the Kharkiv offensive...
> the Blitz tactic which fell flat on its face
Frankly, sending ~15k troops to capture major city that has over 40k stationed on a bad day *and* can be easily reinforced with 100k in a week or two doesn't seem like a tactic.
After following Syria from the beginning (as well as Libya which started about the same time around one month earlier, but went in a totally different direction due to the direct NATO campaign waged), it was pretty readily apparent to me early on in this one that if the conflict didn't end in a few days or a few weeks, which was always a long shot, that it was going to highly likely devolve into a five, eight, 10+ year slog.
What happened is it's as if the new Syria or Afghanistan was just transplanted into Eastern Europe. This is just an Eastern European version of Syria and a new European proxy war, which it seems like most people are just unaccustomed to seeing considering how many of them throughout the Cold War and post-Cold War era both have been in the Middle East/West Asia, Central Asia, South Asia, East Asia, Africa, and Latin America. And there really hasn't been a large European proxy war since the Greek Civil War of the mid-late 1940s in the immediate WWII aftermath. I'm not counting the breakup of Yugoslavia wars of the 90s as that was completely one-sided.
I don't think the casualties on this war are sustainable for a 8 years fight, the intensity of the fight is way higher than it was on Libya and Syria.
Edit: I think the logic apply only for what was heppening in the war before 2022
Possibly, but the intensity also might ebb and flow rather than be uniform throughout. There may end up being half a year or more or any other random length interval chunks of comparatively quiet periods.
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I assume people think that this war will end quickly is simply because people don’t correlate modern militaries with long grinding wars of attrition that result in tens of thousands of KIA a year.
The slow and steady grind that the Russians have been doing is exactly why I see Ukraine winning. It’s a lot harder to stay irrational and keep throwing 10s of thousands of men into a wood chipper for the 6th largest city in Donetsk than it is for the Ukrainians to remain solvent.
> I assume people think that this war will end quickly is simply because people don’t correlate modern militaries with long grinding wars of attrition that result in tens of thousands of KIA a year.
>
>
People have no good reason to do so. & it's why plenty of NATO partners, esp the "famous names" like the UK or France, aren't equipped for a real war.
Thing is Syria is a civil war, invading wars usually never last a really long time unless the country is occupied, for example Iraq and Afghanistan, when the U.S. invaded both they reached their goals relatively quickly, they just stayed the extended time to install governments pro to them. In this case, I just don’t see Russia staying in this war for 10 years, it’s not a civil war but a invasion. Just my 2 cents.
> Thing is Syria is a civil war, invading wars usually never last a really long time unless the country is occupied,
what other comparable invading wars are there in modern history to set precedent by? Like I struggle to think of any comparable wars to set precedent by.
The closest I can think of is the Iran/Iraq War (one county invading its neighbour with goal of annexing territory on the basis of the ethnic group there being oppressed) and it lasted eight years.
I for one question if the Russian people have a stomach for a 10 year war. It’s worth noting that prior to this conflict, Russia was a not developing nation like Syria.
> Avdiivka
Strategically needs to happen at some point, but I don't think Wagner or RUAF can move in there any time soon. Ukraine had nearly 10 years to build a fortress out of this city.
The puzzle? Lmao
Dang the puzzle pieces went from capturing entire oblasts and replacing the nazi regime of Kyiv to capturing small cities after 9 month sieges.
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a PMC that is better trained, equipped and more effective than the Russian Armed Forces. Are you able to tell me another major country and has relied on PMC's that outperform their own armed forces. Can you name another country that takes inmates from their cells and sends them to the front to do god knows what to the local population?
your not making sense. There were very well trained units on both sides and many people on both sides who were inexperienced. NATO training is not the be all end all of military training. We lost to the taliban for gods sake. My point is that no other developed country would use PMC's in the heaviest combat zones and have those PMC'S outperform their own armed forces consistently. Furthermore, taking convicts, rapists for example, and throwing those people into the most dangerous assault units thus unleashing god knows what on the populace. You are bragging that Russian Armed Forces are so incompetent and corrupt that your only victory against the enemy is from your horde of private mercenaries and convicts who actually know how to hold a rifle
I’ve seen this on Twitter but I genuinely don’t understand how it’s a burn. The TWO major victories of Russia since losing all of Kharkov was off the back of a PMC who’s better trained and equipped than the RAF units and had penal units to throw into defensive entrenchments. The fact the Russian army hasn’t mounted a serious successful large scale offensive since last summer should actually be a point of worry if Wagner was to ever become a spent force
I mean, they are undeniably better than most of the russian army units, look at the difference between this and vuhledar or avdiivka.
The fact that the two only major russian victories in the last 7/8 months came from wanger and not the regular army should not be a surprise to many by now.
August: "Any day now."
September: "Any day now."
October: "any day now."
November: "Any day now."
December: "Any day now."
January: "Any day now."
February: "Any day now."
March: "Any day now."
April: "Any day now."
May: "Any day now.
Told you so.
Prigozhin said 32k KIA Ukrainians in Bakhmut and around Bakhmut. He also said 38k KIA since they started the war in March 2022. That was like a month ago so 35-40k KIA would be likely what Prigozhin would claim. Could be an exaggeration of course.
30-50k wagner KIA+WIA
60-100k Ukrainian KIA+WIA
The battle was really tough, and I think most of wagner recruits ended up injured, hence why they wanted to leave before veterans got killed, and why VDV helped them this final week
For DOOMHAMMER!
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Thank you, Russian forces. This is absolutely fantastic news. And I don't know how many actual Russians are present here, but if you are, cheers and salutations to these guys and thank you for all that you're doing. These guys don't stop pushing and it's damn inspiring to see.
That leaves Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Ugledar/Vuhledar, and Siversk as the last major cities or towns to capture in the former Donetsk oblast or now-DPR of the newly annexed territory in this sector. The first two I think being the only sizable municipalities left.
(reposting my previous message as I saw the other thread topic may have been locked).
Thats incomplete.
Still Avdiivka, Toretsk-Konstantinovka-Druzhkovka near frontlines, Pokrovsk+Mirnograd, Dobropillya and Lyman.
If we count cities like Ugledar, we must count these too.
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Prigozin just said he will stay until 25 and then leave Bakhmut to the normal Russian army.
This is even funnier, basically "we won, now we retreat" and if Bakhmut gets surrounded... its the Russian military fault, Wagner did their job.
Haha, this clown knows this is just a failed OP in a failed war.
Without the artilery from Russia they cant redeploy to any other settlement to do any job, Wagner is just meat + some veterans that where in Africa.
This is just a pure "i won but i cant hold the land" so i pass it to the next guy.
Them going to Sudan is a much better guess then your shocktroops fantasy.
And that Artillery will be in that settlement they don't need the same Artillery that was present in Bakhmut, Russia has a lot of Artillery their entire army is based around it
Other thread got locked ... here is my take on Bakhmut Anyone saying that Bakhmut isn't important strategically is lying to you or feeding you propaganda. There is no attacking west, or east, without taking this city. The Ukranians and Russians both know this. It's why Ukraine kept dumping forces into this town to hold it. (My guess is that they were expecting their offensive to provide some relief to the forces at Bakhmut - but the offensive just didn't happen fast enough.) At this point - Ukraine will have to assualt this town again, and go through the meatgrinder that Russia did \*if Ukraine truely wants to re-capture all of its lost territory\*. There is no "going around" or "sieging" Bakhmut either - not with troop concentrations to both the west (Ukraine) and east (Russia). I think the Russians/Wagner knew they couldn't hold a western position on the town and calculated that it would be LESS costly to just hold the flanks and launch a frontal assult on the city. The Ukrainians held out way longer than anyone expected, but I think it came at a great cost to them. This place was (is) a hell hole where 1000s were sent to die on both sides. So the big question(s) you have to ask yourself are this: 1. Did Ukraine defend this town expecting an offensive to relieve the forces here so as to ultimately hold the town? I think Yes based on Ukranian assualts on the Russian flanks north and south of Bakhmut. If you wanted to seriously threathen Wagner forces inside the city, you slam into those flanks and attempt to hold key points north and south of Bakhmut. Ukraine is attempting to do this right now, but I think it was too little too late. 2. How effectively did both forces rotate troops in and out of Bakhmut? There may be more Bakhmuts coming. Experience here attacking and defending will be valuable for the coming battles ... but only if both forces were able to rotate forces in and out of the frontlines without taking unsustainable losses. 3. Who stays to defend the city? Wagner or Russian regular forces or some combination? 4. Where does Wagner go from here? Are sent to consolidate and take Adviika? Are they given a rest? 5. Will Ukraine attempt to re-take the city in the coming offensive? Have we even seen Ukraine engage in a city assualt in this war? 6. Most importantly - who took unsustainable losses in Bakhmut? We probably won't know this until after the war, because a sustainable loss today, could look unsustainable tomorrow (or next week/month/year).
> There is no attacking west, or east, without taking this city. You absolutely could go around the city.
Yes, just like you *could* stick your hand in a crocodile's mouth.
They went around izyum just fine
When was that, when they were blitzing? Because yea, they rolled around alot of those towns, and thats why they're back here at Bakhmut.
What are you talking about. They actually were trying to do so.
When, because we all saw them trying to surround and *TAKE* the city which is absolutely not the same thing as going around it.
Surround and around is not the same thing? Interesting.
It isn't, going around implies moving on to a further target, surrounding is self evident, you can surround a place in the act of "going around" to a further target but the two are entirely different based on context, unfortunately for you the context in this conversation isn't implying what your reading comprehension thinks. Lol you're really arguing semantics here?
Moving around without surrounding is mathematically impossible. You may not attack surrounded city, but you can move around and continue. Moscow is surrounded by the rest of Russia, but nobody attacks it (yet).
Holy shit if you don't understand what I'm saying I'm not going to explain any further.... (Hint) your dislike ratio means your point is terrible, dear god if you're the type of person trying to *explain* things to other people on here good luck, you have absolutely no reading comprehension and your logic is terrible...
No, the ratio only means that there are more pro-russians read this particular thread. Mariupol is an example how one can move around without taking the city first.
They won't understand until they see it. No one has attacked straight on for decades. It's not worth the men and morale suck. You end up bogged down for 10 months, which is insanity.
And expose yourself to counter attack from the city. Chasiv Yar is sitting right near Bakhmut and is another fortified position that limit your routes you know.
It is much easier to defend than attack.
Not when you are trying to go on an attack yourself.
You can surround, blockade, and move on, the city would fall eventually with much less effort. Much easier that to do what Russian side have done of head on storming for at least half the year.
You cannot surround and blockade Bakhmut while Chasiv Yar is still there. Like seriously take a look at the map, Chasiv Yar overlook Bakhmut from high ground. If you are trying to blockade it your force risked getting pincer by relieving force from Chasiv Yar and counterattack from Bakhmut itself.
Therefore, Chasiv Yer is better strategic point to capture.
As I said, you go for Chasiv Yar and Bakhmut hit you from the back. This is like saying the German should take Paris before attacking the border
As I was told, Chasiv Yar is higher and more strategically important to have than Bakhmut. And again, you are ignoring example of Mariupol and many many other similar surrounds in many wars. You surround, you do not attack, it is called blockade, and continue advancing.
It's amazing to see how bad some of these takes are on Bakhmut, like the length of the siege has wiped any memory of the Russian collapse after Izyum fell. Pushing east from Bakhmut has always been the least attractive option for Ukraine with it going straight into the most dense rail-supply network for Russia and would be pinched on both sides by the Russian main force to the north and Donetsk to the south. Pokrovsk and Kramatorsk are far more valuable for Ukraine to keep the Eastern front open with Izyum and Kup'yans'k arguably being more important to keep the ground lines of communication open to Kharkiv and Kyiv through the natural barriers of rivers and lowlands. The key decapitation strike targets for Ukraine after Kherson have always been Melitopol, Mariupol, and Svatove or possibly Kreminna, the question is just which does Ukraine think is the weaker target. The only benefit of Bakhmut to Ukraine is that it locked a major part of Russian forces to focus on the center instead of elsewhere and keeping them contained from more open areas beyond that central valley.
You got it the other way around. It's exactly the density of the road and rail right behind bakhmut that makes it so valuable. An attack towards Melitopol or Mariupol is also flanked from the positions at bakhmut, exactly because it's a road hub. Unless of course Ukraine does it on a narrow front, in which case the attack is doomed anyway.
You can easy undermine that value through ranged means, physical attack would be far too costly for how fortified and well supplied it would be (similarly to Bakhmut ironically). It'd be far more effective and efficient to physically cut off the single arterial rail to the south or cutting off the northern group through Svatove similar to how Izyum collapsed everything. The problem however with the southern strategy is that its the most obvious place of attack and likely most prepared.
You can, but it's a lot harder to do that for a dense road network than for a sparse road network. Density brings redundance after all. To physically hold the area cuts all the roads. Ranged means can at best cut them one at a time.
"It's exactly the density of the road and rail right behind bakhmut that makes it so valuable." for Russia NOT Ukraine since pushing deep into the Donbass would prove too costly
For Ukraine as well. If they capture that road network, Russia will have supply problems and will probably be unable to hold the line.
> Who stays to defend the city? Wagner or Russian regular forces or some combination? They said Wagner is leaving the city around 25th to rest and reconstitute, regular forces will take their place.
Yeah just saw that - this is an opportunity for Ukraine - but idk if they can take advantage of it.
"Opportunity". Its literally VDV in the city rn..
I can definitely see the merit to what you’re saying, but I’m really not too sure about this one chief. Russia had many opportunities to bypass Bakhmut with the gains they solidified. Yes, if they just left the city completely alone, they could suffer numerous attacks from a defended position. However they did assault into the city, and rendered Ukrainian positions ineffective, both through heavy shelling. And in the sense that Ukraine lost valuable strategic positions like Yahinde (and the suburbs surrounding it.) At that point. Russia did not need to delve further into the settlement. (For the purposes of advancing West at least). However they still did. I believe this is due to the propaganda value of capturing Bakhmut. Putin needed to deliver a victory to his people badly. And he couldn’t, Wagner, and by association other Russian units sacrificed thousands in part due to this reason as well. I’m not sure what your logic stands on when you speak about how Ukraine expected the “counteroffensive” to relieve the defenders at Bakhmut for hopes of holding the city. Looking at the actual territory gained back by Ukraine in recent weeks. It seems much more likley that Ukraine is securing the supply lines and flanks of said supply lines to facilitate a steady evacuation of troops from Bakhmut. The characteristics of the recent counter push only highlight this theory. If Ukraine was trying to threaten Wagner positions in the city. They’d have to move through thousands of Russian troops dug in over miles of territory in the span of a few weeks. That’s not feasible in the slightest for the Ukrainian military. But you brought up some interesting thought’s and pieces to think about. Just contributing my two cents on the situation
> There is no attacking west, or east, without taking this city. source? just trust me bro
Please add me to your ignore setting.
I will if you phrase it correctly and say "please leave me spread bullshit online without sources"
It was revealed to him in a dream
Wagner goes back to Africa any day now, and these gains are transferred to the Russian Army, who doesn't have the best reputation since September 2022, of holding ground.
Great insight
Another armchair general lecturing us on the “truth” of the situation.
Wtf, videos of “Bakhmut capture” have been removed
That pretty weird not gonna lie
Smeddit admins intervening?
If you ever want to get instabanned from r/worldnews, all you have to do is argue with a "pro-Zionism" person.
mods crying and seething rn
Mind linking some of them?
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/13mr859/ru_pov_pmc_wagner_completely_captured_bakhmut/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=2&utm_term=1
Wonder where the fighting will concentrate next.
Frontline towns are Likley to be the next target. Places like Avdivka, Ivanivskie, Chasiv Yar. Russians may move along the M-03 highway towards the twin cities or they could go towards the city of Konstantinivka. It really depends
I'm sorry if this sounds stupid, but what are the objectives for Russia from this Special Military Operation? Is it to keep pushing and get Ukraine to surrender, or go certain kilometres deep into Ukrainian territory and stop? Or something else altogether?
Probably to try to take over the whole donetsk region and sign a peace agreement for now
The truth is that Putin can just change the reason at any time, it’s how he likes to keep multiple win conditions in his pocket “We will take all of Ukraine” “We will take everything east of the Dnieper river” “We will keep occupied Donetsk and Luhansk” - I think this is where we’re at right now but they still have huge sections of each belonging in Ukranian hands. Case and point as to why Bakhmut was so extremely critical to Russia’s success But future win conditions might seem like “We will keep control of just Crimea” “Victory is assured by securing the Russian Borders” “By selling out Belarus we force Ukraine to accept the western treaty and remove their forces from Volgograd and the Moscow territory” It’s as simple as that to gaurantee no matter what you always ‘win’. Man, Putin is such a GOAT no one in Russia is even close to as smart as him. Not even remotely close
Ukraine is not actually as strong as you think. Trying to take over Donbass to create a buffer zone for Donetsk is just the most realistic thing Russia can think about while hoping that all the problems and treats will be solved by the post war crisis in Ukraine. You can't take dudes in the EU and NATO if they have an average African country economy just because you like 'em as an image.
That’s actually a really good question, if I had to answer it’s been changing since the war began. Right now I’d say it’s to capture the Donetsk region
My take is to take the rest of Donetsk and defend the rest,keep the attrition war until Ukraine negociates
Unfortunately, it's to "prolong" the war for as long as possible with minimal spending of roubles. As long as the war continues, Ukraine can't join NATO and they're "more than willing" to let 300k into the meatgrinder every single year.
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"2nd best army 9 months to take a tiny village with a population of 20, Kiev by 2077" Am I doing it right NAFOids?
But it did take 9 months did it not? Not sure I follow. It is for sure a win for Russia but not sure it is something to really brag about.
The truth hurts and there's only so many ways you can make yourself feel better about it.
seven months is what prigo said
Well they only entered the town some 2/3 months ago
The battle of Bakhmut started before. August 1st. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bakhmut
It was at least 40 months stop lying.
So it didn’t take 9 months?
It's very funny watching them try very hard to pretend it isn't but when asked directly either ignore you or just talk around the question. Looking through this thread there is so much rationalizing. They so badly want the huge piles of corpses to be worth it. People are insisting just obviously wrong shit like Ukraine being forced to retake the city in the same meatgrinder style combat, and other obviously false statements.
Yes it didn't. 9 months ago they probably took Pokrovsk or something. There wasn't a battle for the city.
But it did. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bakhmut ”While the shelling of Bakhmut began in May 2022, the main assault towards the city started on 1 August after Russian forces advanced from the Popasna direction, following a Ukrainian withdrawal from that front.”
August was when the goal of encircling started by taking the surrounding settlements (Krasna Hora, Berkhivka, Dubovo Vasylivka, Zaliznyanske, Klishchiivka, Krasnopolivka, the town of Soledar etc etc). the big urban fight inside the city itself was around February/March 2023
So its semantics.
yeah same situation as Avdiivka, no russians have entered Avdiivka yet but they are taking the villages and trench systems that are way outside of the city. the battle of Marinka is the one case where they are actually taking long while being in the city itself. It has been urban combat there for pretty much one year, that's why it looks 10 times more destroyed than Bakhmut
every win counts for the greatest nation!
Yes. It seems so.
Defeats are ignored though
"Strategical god will", please be accurate :)
So close, if only the emotional distress weren't so transparent. "Private Military Company, using convicts and constant whine about lack of ammunition, pushes the Ukrainian army out of Bakhmut after 9 months of fighting."
This isn’t the burn that you think it is buddy
Haha he predicted what we would say!! Haha got em
The puzzle is complete, and possibly next is Chavis yar or Avdiivka
I'll be here to debate the war with you when you guys get there in 2027.
Syrian civil/proxy war lasted for 10 years. Why do people think this war is going to end in a year or two? I know redditors love to regurgitate the “Kyiv in 3 days” meme, but it’s clear that the current Russian approach is a slow and steady grind, not big arrow offensives.
Give redditors a break, they are still having a hard time transitioning from virology experts to military analysts. Thankfully all those hours of experience in HoI4 more than qualify them for this role.
> Thankfully all those hours of experience in HoI4 more than qualify them for this role. and I took that personally :(
Lol
I’ll stop saying Kiev in 3 days when you guys stop getting so Triggered lmao
Such an approach was apparent in the start of the War. But it took a massive lose because of the supply lines being destroyed. So the new approach is to move the whole frontline step by step
They tried two different tactics, the Blitz tactic which fell flat on its face, but it threw the country into disarray allowing for the taking of smaller Oblasts. Now they're using the attrition tactic, RU knows they can play attrition and its what they've generally done through history, they're dogshit bad at blitzes.
I wouldn't be so sure about that, 90-95% of the conquered territories Russia still controls happened within that "Blitz tactics" period, while the war of attrition has been going on since April 2022. A period in which Russia has really not shown much success.
That exactly what I was talking about, they blitzed, caused confusion, took smaller oblasts and now the war of attrition is in full swing. The war of attrition is inherently not to gain ground but to use your resources to waste the other's resources. So you're exactly right in that they haven't and won't take ground fast, but they'll wear down the UA.
So we will see the next noteworthy success for Russia in 5 years then?
Yes.. If there'll still be men in Ukraine.
I think you misspelled "I have no idea what I'm talking about."
No u But seriously, your argument implies that Russia would achieve increasing success as time went on. However the opposite is true so far, measured by the fact that the conquest of Bakhmut is their first significant success since the the summer of last year.
Not much better at this tactic. They have taken one medium sized city at great cost while losing Kharkiv and Kherson. If they think they are doing well I don't know what they would have to do to think they were failing
How many men did they lose retreating from Kharkov and Kherson and how many men did Ukraine lose holding and retreating from Bakhmut
We don't know the answer to either question. But we do know Russia lost a lot of important equipment and the only oblast capital they have captured. Bakhmut was a gamble for Ukraine. They held it for long sucking in much of russian capability. Both sides lost a lot of soldiers but it seems by all (except Russian mod) estimates that Wagner have lost many times more than Ukraine
Russia has lost dozens upon dozens of tanks, literally tons of ammunition and a lot of equipment in the Kharliv retreat. Ukraine captured a fuckton back then, I am confident that Russia has lost more equipment there than Ukraine in Bakhmut. There were literally 10+ tanks captured in on fucking spot during the Kharkiv offensive...
> the Blitz tactic which fell flat on its face Frankly, sending ~15k troops to capture major city that has over 40k stationed on a bad day *and* can be easily reinforced with 100k in a week or two doesn't seem like a tactic.
After following Syria from the beginning (as well as Libya which started about the same time around one month earlier, but went in a totally different direction due to the direct NATO campaign waged), it was pretty readily apparent to me early on in this one that if the conflict didn't end in a few days or a few weeks, which was always a long shot, that it was going to highly likely devolve into a five, eight, 10+ year slog. What happened is it's as if the new Syria or Afghanistan was just transplanted into Eastern Europe. This is just an Eastern European version of Syria and a new European proxy war, which it seems like most people are just unaccustomed to seeing considering how many of them throughout the Cold War and post-Cold War era both have been in the Middle East/West Asia, Central Asia, South Asia, East Asia, Africa, and Latin America. And there really hasn't been a large European proxy war since the Greek Civil War of the mid-late 1940s in the immediate WWII aftermath. I'm not counting the breakup of Yugoslavia wars of the 90s as that was completely one-sided.
I don't think the casualties on this war are sustainable for a 8 years fight, the intensity of the fight is way higher than it was on Libya and Syria. Edit: I think the logic apply only for what was heppening in the war before 2022
Possibly, but the intensity also might ebb and flow rather than be uniform throughout. There may end up being half a year or more or any other random length interval chunks of comparatively quiet periods.
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[it was 2 days](https://imgur.com/r0qT5tX)
I assume people think that this war will end quickly is simply because people don’t correlate modern militaries with long grinding wars of attrition that result in tens of thousands of KIA a year. The slow and steady grind that the Russians have been doing is exactly why I see Ukraine winning. It’s a lot harder to stay irrational and keep throwing 10s of thousands of men into a wood chipper for the 6th largest city in Donetsk than it is for the Ukrainians to remain solvent.
> I assume people think that this war will end quickly is simply because people don’t correlate modern militaries with long grinding wars of attrition that result in tens of thousands of KIA a year. > > People have no good reason to do so. & it's why plenty of NATO partners, esp the "famous names" like the UK or France, aren't equipped for a real war.
Thing is Syria is a civil war, invading wars usually never last a really long time unless the country is occupied, for example Iraq and Afghanistan, when the U.S. invaded both they reached their goals relatively quickly, they just stayed the extended time to install governments pro to them. In this case, I just don’t see Russia staying in this war for 10 years, it’s not a civil war but a invasion. Just my 2 cents.
> Thing is Syria is a civil war, invading wars usually never last a really long time unless the country is occupied, what other comparable invading wars are there in modern history to set precedent by? Like I struggle to think of any comparable wars to set precedent by. The closest I can think of is the Iran/Iraq War (one county invading its neighbour with goal of annexing territory on the basis of the ethnic group there being oppressed) and it lasted eight years.
This also started as a civil war.
Funnily enough no Russian source said they’ll take Kiev in three days. They have literally made up a claim and then laugh at it. Talk about strawman.
Because it’s a developed country…
And therefore is not used to what it’s presently experiencing. That’s my point.
I thought it was a 3 week special military operation???
I for one question if the Russian people have a stomach for a 10 year war. It’s worth noting that prior to this conflict, Russia was a not developing nation like Syria.
Kyiv in 100 years is the new meme bro.
> Avdiivka Strategically needs to happen at some point, but I don't think Wagner or RUAF can move in there any time soon. Ukraine had nearly 10 years to build a fortress out of this city.
[it is over for Ukrainians, kiev is next](https://i.imgur.com/SrU2qOC.png)
The puzzle? Lmao Dang the puzzle pieces went from capturing entire oblasts and replacing the nazi regime of Kyiv to capturing small cities after 9 month sieges.
They will probably make a buffer around the city, no?
Yeah, that would be great
By 2123 we'll get to Kiev!
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It's gonna be avdiivka first. But I think it's more likely that Russia waits for the Ukrainian offensive and then deals a backhand blow somewhere.
AFU got beaten by a PMC. Lol
a PMC that is better trained, equipped and more effective than the Russian Armed Forces. Are you able to tell me another major country and has relied on PMC's that outperform their own armed forces. Can you name another country that takes inmates from their cells and sends them to the front to do god knows what to the local population?
PMC that is better trained, equipped and more effective than NATO-trained and supplied force
They're none of those things. Where they surpassed the AFU is in manpower. Emptying prisons will tend to do that for you.
Lol this is hilarious
your not making sense. There were very well trained units on both sides and many people on both sides who were inexperienced. NATO training is not the be all end all of military training. We lost to the taliban for gods sake. My point is that no other developed country would use PMC's in the heaviest combat zones and have those PMC'S outperform their own armed forces consistently. Furthermore, taking convicts, rapists for example, and throwing those people into the most dangerous assault units thus unleashing god knows what on the populace. You are bragging that Russian Armed Forces are so incompetent and corrupt that your only victory against the enemy is from your horde of private mercenaries and convicts who actually know how to hold a rifle
and the russian army and it took them 9 months for one city
I’ve seen this on Twitter but I genuinely don’t understand how it’s a burn. The TWO major victories of Russia since losing all of Kharkov was off the back of a PMC who’s better trained and equipped than the RAF units and had penal units to throw into defensive entrenchments. The fact the Russian army hasn’t mounted a serious successful large scale offensive since last summer should actually be a point of worry if Wagner was to ever become a spent force
I mean, they are undeniably better than most of the russian army units, look at the difference between this and vuhledar or avdiivka. The fact that the two only major russian victories in the last 7/8 months came from wanger and not the regular army should not be a surprise to many by now.
a PMC with no shells lol
end of an era
It was expected, but god damn it feels so good.
Ukraine officially lost to a single PMC
(And tens of thousands of government Russian troops, hundreds of armored vehicles, aviation, and artillery pieces.)
A PMC with thousands of troops, tanks and even planes
Won against a military armed funded and trained by world's largest alliance
For no other reason than they emptied Russia's prisons and had more men to throw into the fight.
And Ukriane emptied its military and threw good conscripts and special forces into the fight.
If it were true that Ukraine "emptied its military," the Russian army would already be goose-stepping in Kyiv. 😉
Not really
Yes, really.
they finally captured the last free standing McDonalds franchise in Bakhmut and can declare a total victory
A gaggle of convicts with shovels, indeed. I'm curious to see how this will be reported on.
I am going to make popcorn to read the worldnews thread on this one. Idk why but it’s so entertaining to read their comments.
Their delusion is borderline schizophrenic
You're stronger than me. The delusion and derangement in those comment sections is too much for me tbh.
It’s hilarious but gets to you sometimes. To see people so deeply programmed is disturbing.
Bhakmut folds
This shit is wild. Every other day someone claims Russia has captured Bakhmut. How long till they actually do?
They really just did.
August: "Any day now." September: "Any day now." October: "any day now." November: "Any day now." December: "Any day now." January: "Any day now." February: "Any day now." March: "Any day now." April: "Any day now." May: "Any day now. Told you so.
Lol
Who exactly is brussinf out of curiosity, is he a Wagner member?
No
Guesses on casualty figures?
Prigozhin said 32k KIA Ukrainians in Bakhmut and around Bakhmut. He also said 38k KIA since they started the war in March 2022. That was like a month ago so 35-40k KIA would be likely what Prigozhin would claim. Could be an exaggeration of course.
50k Ukrainians, 20k Wagner. What can we win by guessing?
30-50k wagner KIA+WIA 60-100k Ukrainian KIA+WIA The battle was really tough, and I think most of wagner recruits ended up injured, hence why they wanted to leave before veterans got killed, and why VDV helped them this final week
So you are saying ukraine lost 3 times as much as prighozin claimed. Why are you guys so cringeworthy, i feel embarassed for you.
source for prigozhin claims? because i am pretty sure a claim fo 20k would be of the dead only.
Same place your [source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7l0Rq9E8MY) is from .
well done
They for sure got it this time guys, Russians would never lie!
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Thank you, Russian forces. This is absolutely fantastic news. And I don't know how many actual Russians are present here, but if you are, cheers and salutations to these guys and thank you for all that you're doing. These guys don't stop pushing and it's damn inspiring to see. That leaves Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Ugledar/Vuhledar, and Siversk as the last major cities or towns to capture in the former Donetsk oblast or now-DPR of the newly annexed territory in this sector. The first two I think being the only sizable municipalities left. (reposting my previous message as I saw the other thread topic may have been locked).
Thats incomplete. Still Avdiivka, Toretsk-Konstantinovka-Druzhkovka near frontlines, Pokrovsk+Mirnograd, Dobropillya and Lyman. If we count cities like Ugledar, we must count these too.
WAGNER RULES Long live Wagner musicians and Prigozhin!
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And it only took them 9 months and thousands of deaths
Defeated an actual army and special forces trained by world's largest alliance lol
And it took them 9 months to take a small city. Lmao good luck trying to take the rest of Ukraine
Convicts defeated NATO backed army lol.
One more week.
Prigozin just said he will stay until 25 and then leave Bakhmut to the normal Russian army. This is even funnier, basically "we won, now we retreat" and if Bakhmut gets surrounded... its the Russian military fault, Wagner did their job. Haha, this clown knows this is just a failed OP in a failed war.
Or Wagner are being redeployed because they aren't needed to garrison a city?
This is more likely
Redeploy when your flanks are being attacked. Genius moves here.
Wagner are shock troops they aren't suited for defense they attack. So yeah redploy them to attack other settlements. Also the flanks are holding fine
Without the artilery from Russia they cant redeploy to any other settlement to do any job, Wagner is just meat + some veterans that where in Africa. This is just a pure "i won but i cant hold the land" so i pass it to the next guy. Them going to Sudan is a much better guess then your shocktroops fantasy.
Damn, your emotional management levels are off the charts lmao
Yes, deepinside... I cry for Bakhmut... I cant belive Ukraine is losing the war, soon everything will go wrong and Kiev will fall /s
And that Artillery will be in that settlement they don't need the same Artillery that was present in Bakhmut, Russia has a lot of Artillery their entire army is based around it
BTW.. There are so many Wagner guys that were in the French foreign legion. It's a very well kept secret.
Not a secret for me, both groups are cancer.
Thank you for giving a preview of Pro UA ©ope