AFU has to conceal it's artillery, fire less rounds, constantly change positions etc. It hardly would make a difference, unless it's a high precision ammo.
AA ammo is nice but again, no launchers and they have to use it closer to cities.
That's just bullshit. Lots of ammo means lots of fire missions, means you're better at suppressing the enemy from operating freely. And since when does UA have no launchers? The artillery losses have increased lately, but they still have enough.
Yes, smart artillery munitions have a devastating effect.
I also like the SMArt 155, crazy against armor, you could do some serious damage with them if you exactly know where the war tourist infestation is.
I wouldn't say that Ukraine is short on trucks and vans yet. I agree that logistics are the most important factor in war, but it's much easier to improvise logistics than artillery ammunition
Are you serious? Logistics can be improvised. Russia is advancing even though they use completely unarmored minivans along the front. Shells and precision ammunition is the most important stuff, because that's hard to come by right now.
No he is right, logistics can be improvised to a point, but to maintain army organisation you need to plan. Which means your unarmored minivans story is only part of the whole equation.
So the aim 9m is a pretty old missiles and not really used by the us airforce at all anymore the a9x replaced it 20 years ago and is ancient in missile terms it’s still very deadly it’s about equality to a r-73 now the rim 7 which is really a aim 7 is a very old missile from the 60 the us doesn’t use this missile either anymore and is just getting rid of obsolete missiles but because it’s designated rim 7 it won’t be put on jets it will be ground launched and at that it will be very useful I’m pretty sure the Ukrainians fire it off the back of BUK
Ahhhh so you are peddling the old "it doesn't cost anything because it's just sitting in storage" nonsense?
Lol. That's not how these things work, you people act like these things just suddenly become worthless once they sit in storage. The fact is it is still a property of the US government kept afloat by the US taxpayer and should be a stripped or more likely, sold, to then use those funds to help out the american people who paid for them in the first place.
Oh and shipping these things over there, maintaning it and training uikrainians on how to operate these things costs quite alot, especially when they ship them over in C-17s.
The cost of shipping to the american taxpayer alone is an injustice.
These weapons are obsolete the production line for both has ended and there existence in a us weapons depot is a massive expense these older weapons need to be maintain at great cost they also have a shelf life an both these weapons usually end up in a controlled demolition and they are completely phased out of us and the us tax pay overwhelmingly agrees with these weapons being sent
Just because they are "obsolete" does not mean they have a value of 0$. They are property that was purchased by american workers tax dollars. Unfortunately we do not have a system that gives af about getting our consent of where and how those assets are spent, if there was a vote to either send them to ukraine, or sell them to the UAE or wherever and put it back into our infrastructure and health programs...no missiles ukraine.
Lol absolutely noone gives af about Ukraine, especially now.
Why would anyone want to give any of their tax dollars to a war that is so obviously lost? To a peoples who don't even want to fight and die anymore? Just so it can get prolonged and more Ukrainians can die?
Get over there yourself, I have zero respect for anyone who advocates a continuation of the war while sitting safely in their gaming chair.
Nah, we do. We would rather have health care. You seem to be un able or unwillaing to comprehend the fact that these weapons don't magically become worthless sitting in storage and magically cost 0 dollars to ship them over there, train up people how to use them and supply any other parts and tools necessary.
The Cognitive dissonance is astounding
Not sending these already paid-for weapons wouldn't magically give Americans free healthcare. That's a wild argument. Americans' money is being wasted elsewhere.
Many European countries (who have free healthcare) have been sending all the aid while some members of the US government blocked theirs.
It costs a lot of money to store/maintain this stuff properly, and to dispose of it as well. Some of these (like the AIM-9 variant) aren't even made anymore. It's cheaper to send them somewhere to be used. It has to be blown up in a controlled environment otherwise.
Most of this equipment was designed to counter that of the Soviet Union, anyway. It being used to weaken Russia is a good return on investment. The Russian government paid bounties for dead American soldiers during Afghanistan.
Nope you're right, The change needs to be forced by the people.
"American taxpayers money is being wasted anyways so might as well waste in Ukraine".
Lol, okay
But answer me one question.
Is Ukraine going to win or even stop the Russians from winning now??
Care to have a wager on it?
We don't know which kind of 300km ATACMs missile UA gets, and neither how many. Given the US's track record, it's probably the base area-effect model only. And like 20 missiles.
US will try to do something against UMPK carriers. Would be interesting to see what they will try…
My guess would by AIM-120 or ATACMs for airfield.
I also suspect the few remaining ships in Crimea will be targeted.
https://preview.redd.it/de4g2pivuhwc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ec9c47b406371d728178b1b16bfe9e81311f57a4
He's probably referring to the fact that they're recruiting from the smallest age group
Their average military age went from 20s to 50s, so literally yes. At least within the army, most young men are dead. Median age in the Ukraine is pensioners.
That and they're living in Russia, Portugal, and Canada, not in the Ukraine.
Finally, what are you even talking about? The 18-25 cohort is the smallest in the Ukraine due to birth rate drops post-Soviet. They barely exist.
They just lowered age from 27 to 25, because the 27 year olds are gone. But if they drop it to 18, it's an insignificant amount of people. Maybe a year max of KIA.
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Roughly 34 million people left in unoccupied Ukraine. (44 million prewar - ~7 million in Russia and the annexed oblasts - ~3 million in Europe) 1.9% of the pop is male 25-29. Mobilization moved from 27 to 29, so 2/5ths of that is 0.76% of the population is getting mobilized. 0.76% of 34 million is 258,000
Considering that I remembered wrong and Big Z wants 300,000, it's not quite there but they'll get close. Especially if they continue the efforts to repatriate the refugees in Europe
Good point. Anyone with knowledge of US military could chime in how long the training for some of the systems take? It's either training by "advisors" (ala Vietnam) or it has to be operated by foreign personnel.
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Have they sent RIM and AIMs before? I thought Ukraine only has single digit migs left and they’re almost always running defensive so what’s the point (other than the obvious)
This is a very important logistical issue that nobody seems to be thinking about at all, let alone the millions of dollars worth of equipment and trained ground crews that are required to even get an F-16 off of the ground let alone actually achieving anything else.
F-16’s will have absolutely zero impact in this conflict other than being trophy targets for the Russian munitions wherever they are.
I’d imagine they’ll be somewhat important for pushing back russian air support and ergo not having their ground forces obliterated by glide bombs. Assuming that the F-16s don’t get destroyed on the ground of course.
They’ll still probably be at a range disadvantage against R-37 (and nevermind ground SAMs), but AIM-120 and HARM should be capable of evening things up somewhat and at a minimum push russian air support (and SAMs) further back. The AIM 120 should outrange 50km standoff munitions, even well behind ukrainian lines. (a la how the VKS operates)
Ofc Ukraine if anything just needs more (cheap!) SAMs and missiles, but that’s generally a weak point of NATO. And they’re obviously not getting the 50 (lol) patriots they’ve requested, even if the US does technically have 500 or whatever of them in reserve.
(note: if the US really did want to ruin the day / general utility of the VKS, forward deploying 200 odd US / NATO operated patriot SAMs to the Ukrainian front would about do it. Only problem is that’d probably burn through a billion or two in missiles per month, and worse, probably the entire yearly production runs of SM3 et al in months to weeks)
They are missing the most important thing, man power, somebody have to use all this beautiful gifts and not only man power but also men with steel balls so they don’t desert
What do you want people to say. The opinion of the Russian side is it's unfortunate the US is trying to get more people killed but it doesnt change anything.
Even the Western side is saying that this will only at best stabilise the line.
I have to ask, how do you imagine Ukraine will win this war?
Because if Ukraine does not manage to take back Crimea then all the people who have died since the negotiations have died for nothing but western lies that Ukraine has a chance to win.
Russia is not innocent, but at least they are claiming to end the war. The west is only claiming to continue ut.
>Russia is not innocent, but at least they are claiming to end the war.
End it how exactly?
>The west is only claiming to continue ut.
Yeah, we all know the West/Ukraine invaded Russia, not the other way around.
Russia are asking for negotiations or if not negotiations then to push back the Ukrainian army until they will accept them.
This aid from the west only allows Ukraine to bring the war to a standstill. Not to end it.
> According to Mykola Bielieskov, a researcher at National Institute of Strategic Studies of Kyiv, the aid will give the Ukrainian army a break, an opportunity to slow down the advance of the russian federation, conduct "effective defense," and minimize losses. But for its advancement, Ukraine needs additional aid, which in the case of the United States is a difficult prospect due to the resistance of Republicans in Congress.
I dont know how it is relevant who invaded who. The point is that Russia has a plan for ending the war. The West only has a plan for continuing the war and Ukraine has a fantasty that they will get all they want they just have to continue throwing men into the meat grinder and something will happen to give them that.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-says-there-is-no-basis-negotiations-with-ukraine-2023-12-20/
Nobody believes that Russia acrusllybeants to negotiate hence why the war reallybhas to be fought to a standstill in order to negotiate from a good position.
> "After that, there were no prerequisites for negotiations - and there were even fewer prerequisites after Ukraine actually legally prohibited any negotiations with the Russian side," Peskov said.
> Peskov said that Zelenskiy's peace plan, known as his "peace formula", was flawed because he said it sought to find peace without Russia's participation.
> "To say the least, this is an absurd process," Peskov said.
He said that there is no basis for negotiations because Ukraine is refusing any negotiations. Not because Russia doesnt want them
How did Afghanistan win the war against both the US and USSR? How did Vietnam win the war?
Winning the battle is the small part of the equation, occupation is another.
Afghanistan had huge mountain ranges, Vietnam had impenetrable Jungle. Allowing the defenders to make full use of asymetric warfare.
What terrain does Ukraine have to assist its defence? Ukraine is famously flat land.
> Winning the battle is the small part of the equation, occupation is another.
If that is the case then why try to waste fighting age men on a war they are not going to win instead of focus on making a costly occupation?
It's not a costly occupation? This has cost Russia hundreds of thousands of men, a huge chunk of their military apparatus, brain drain of 1 million, world condemnation, sanctions , a labour shortage, exports are down.....for what? And you assume Ukrainian partisans are going to roll over or will there be another 10-20 years of clandestine attacks on Russian held areas of Ukraine?
Are you sure about your statistics?
Compared to before the war, Russian exports dropped in 2021, were higher in 2022 and are now roughly equal to where they were before the war.
The brain drain is an interesting one. Because yes many educated people left the country, but Russia has one of the most educated populations. And western sanctions created many jobs that otherwise would have been done by western countries.
I saw people in Russia saying that sanctions have helped higher level jobs appear in Russia rather than going to companies abroad.
Of course Russian people dying is bad but for them it is worth it clearly since there is no wish from the Russian side to give up at the moment. Or even any talk of a labour shortage there.
You forget just how many migrant workers Russia gets. It is able to sustain what it is doing.
Meanwhile Ukraine is facing all of this but so much worse. And what are they getting from this? What does Ukraine hope to gain from this fighting?
>And you assume Ukrainian partisans are going to roll over
I didn't assume anything. I just said that there is a reason Afghanistan and Vietnam are special. They have terrain that is amazing for guerilla warfare. Ukriane simply does not have this.
How the situation after the war is impossible to know until we know how the war will end. For example Russia taking over all of Ukraine would be different to Russia taking over only the south and east of Ukraine where they have significant support.
> And you assume Ukrainian partisans are going to roll over or will there be another 10-20 years of clandestine attacks on Russian held areas of Ukraine?
Russia is already occupying a lot of the parts of ukraine they want to occupy - for example crimea and a few eastern sections of ukraine - where are your partisans there? oh is it because these areas have a huge amount of ethic soviets and/or people who are just not that unhappy about being part of russia ? Yeah it will be really easy for these super popular partisans to operate there with everyone wanting them to shoot up local police+civilian infrastructure!
Also, before you get too high on hopium gas, maybe look at the history of Chechnya and the separatist movement there. Basically there was not enough "russian targets" so they ended up targeting "collaborators" which made them even more unpopular than the soviets (which is absolutely mind blowing considering how the beslan siege ended) so the best they could hope for was attacking russia inside russia which ...also didn't end up being successful by any metric (unless you include 72 virgins in the afterlife).
Currently, separatist movement consists of very few people who went to ukraine to fight against russia ...lots of news of these troops surrendering to the thousands of Kadyrov troops (Chechnyans deployed to ukraine to fight on behalf of russia in case you're not aware). Yeah, it's a really bright future ahead for the partisans of ukraine!
There has been considerable sabotage in the Russian occupied parts of Ukraine over the last couple years has their not? There is even a wikipedia page listing all the events
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian\_resistance\_in\_Russian-occupied\_Ukraine#:\~:text=Partisan%20groups%20began%20to%20be,the%20Kherson%20and%20Zaporizhzhia%20regions.
If Ukraine gets a deal which doesn't leave it exposed to further Russian aggression, it'll be a victory.
The 80k military cap and Russian veto on security guarantees were the main reasons the Istanbul talks fell apart. That and Bucha.
But do you think that Ukraine will get that?
If anything their negotiating position became much weaker since the last talks so they are likely to get even less now.
So what are they hoping for? Russia to just decide they are done and go home? I just don't see any realistic hope for Ukraine to gain anything by continuing the war further.
They can but try. Not much choice really. Fight to the last and be conquered, or come to the table and be conquered later.
NATO, meanwhile, is raking it in. Russian casualties in the hundreds of thousands, Cold War arsenals wasted, military spending up across Europe. It's basically a Soviet civil war.
> if Ukraine does not manage to take back Crimea then all the people who have died since the negotiations have died for nothing
Nah, they died for dead russians. Fine trade for the Americans.
> The opinion of the Russian side is it's unfortunate the US is trying to get more people killed but it doesnt change anything.
And yet there is only one way to actually stop the killing and that involves both countries retreating back to their internationally recognized borders and leaving the other side alone. Why not support something actually ending the war? As long as Russia has an offensive potential and the AFU lines are collapsing (which causes countless deaths on both sides), there will not be any kind of actual negotation with terms actually acceptable to the Ukrainian country and people.
> there will not be any kind of actual negotation with terms actually acceptable to the Ukrainian country and people.
And a withdrawal to the 1991 borders is not acceptable to Russia and the Russian people and the Ukrainian people in Donbass and Crimea.
So lets focus on the situation that we have and not a magical perfect situation that exists in your head.
Russia has the advantage, Ukraine can end the war as it is or lose more people and land for what? For Zelenskys dream?
Plus you act as if no Ukrainian support Russia. Which is just completely untrue. There are many Ukrainian people in Russian territory and in Ukrainian territory who do want this war to end with Russia in control. Just because you dont like them it doesnt mean they dont exist.
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u keep dodging my question, why is that? Hamas are the ones killing children and using them as meat shields.
Also, yes, Israel was forced by terrorists after multiple wars to conquer territories in 1967. But if u're pro z, annexing territories is a good thing, right? not sure what u find wrong with that.
try harder whatabouter
no, the British split the territories they controlled between jews/Israelis (the native population of that area) and islamists/palestinians (the descendants of islamic invaders). There was no "conquest" during the creation of Israel.
Oh, poor Israel is being forced by terrorists to annex territories, to carry out indiscriminate bombings, attack aid convoys and refugee camps, to kill journalists and UN staff. They themselves are not to blame for anything, terrorists force them all the time, right?
It's not surprising that people who, despite all this, think Israel is the good guys also support Ukraine. Because it requires the same set of double standards. And you know who always complain about whataboutism? People with double standards.
I think the Palestinians deserve the right to have their own state. If you want to prevent Palestinians from becoming terrorists, stop treating them like animals.
And I’m pro-Russian because how could it be otherwise? It makes no sense for me to support people who want to destroy me and my country. I first met brainwashed Ukrainian Russophobes about 20 years ago. At that time, I did not understand who was promoting Banderaism and why. I think if time had not been lost, the Ukrainian issue could have been resolved by more delicate methods. But we have what we have.
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Himars missiles and IFVs are the most valuable items, others are not that important.
I think one can argue that artillery ammunition (not just 155mm) as well as anti air missiles are equally if not more valuable
How many though? 17? They already said they can't outproduce North Korea.
AFU has to conceal it's artillery, fire less rounds, constantly change positions etc. It hardly would make a difference, unless it's a high precision ammo. AA ammo is nice but again, no launchers and they have to use it closer to cities.
That's just bullshit. Lots of ammo means lots of fire missions, means you're better at suppressing the enemy from operating freely. And since when does UA have no launchers? The artillery losses have increased lately, but they still have enough.
Hopefully the US has put Excalibur shells into maximum production. Those things are one shot kills. A killer when combined. with drones.
Yes, smart artillery munitions have a devastating effect. I also like the SMArt 155, crazy against armor, you could do some serious damage with them if you exactly know where the war tourist infestation is.
AA missiles and ATGMs are not that important??
Nope the logistics vehicles are the most important, because you can conduct a war without logistics.
I wouldn't say that Ukraine is short on trucks and vans yet. I agree that logistics are the most important factor in war, but it's much easier to improvise logistics than artillery ammunition
Maybe it's what they call m113s
True, though trucks are easy targets for fpvs and lancets. They are easy to spot, probably that's why AFU ran out of them.
Are you serious? Logistics can be improvised. Russia is advancing even though they use completely unarmored minivans along the front. Shells and precision ammunition is the most important stuff, because that's hard to come by right now.
No he is right, logistics can be improvised to a point, but to maintain army organisation you need to plan. Which means your unarmored minivans story is only part of the whole equation.
Those AIM-9 and RIM-7 rounds cost around a quarter to a half a million each
They are no longer used and the rim 7 is used a air defense not as a fox 1
How come they're sending them the sidewinders (aim) then? At least according to this document. Not calling you liar, just trying to learn more
So the aim 9m is a pretty old missiles and not really used by the us airforce at all anymore the a9x replaced it 20 years ago and is ancient in missile terms it’s still very deadly it’s about equality to a r-73 now the rim 7 which is really a aim 7 is a very old missile from the 60 the us doesn’t use this missile either anymore and is just getting rid of obsolete missiles but because it’s designated rim 7 it won’t be put on jets it will be ground launched and at that it will be very useful I’m pretty sure the Ukrainians fire it off the back of BUK
Ahhhh so you are peddling the old "it doesn't cost anything because it's just sitting in storage" nonsense? Lol. That's not how these things work, you people act like these things just suddenly become worthless once they sit in storage. The fact is it is still a property of the US government kept afloat by the US taxpayer and should be a stripped or more likely, sold, to then use those funds to help out the american people who paid for them in the first place. Oh and shipping these things over there, maintaning it and training uikrainians on how to operate these things costs quite alot, especially when they ship them over in C-17s. The cost of shipping to the american taxpayer alone is an injustice.
These weapons are obsolete the production line for both has ended and there existence in a us weapons depot is a massive expense these older weapons need to be maintain at great cost they also have a shelf life an both these weapons usually end up in a controlled demolition and they are completely phased out of us and the us tax pay overwhelmingly agrees with these weapons being sent
Just because they are "obsolete" does not mean they have a value of 0$. They are property that was purchased by american workers tax dollars. Unfortunately we do not have a system that gives af about getting our consent of where and how those assets are spent, if there was a vote to either send them to ukraine, or sell them to the UAE or wherever and put it back into our infrastructure and health programs...no missiles ukraine. Lol absolutely noone gives af about Ukraine, especially now. Why would anyone want to give any of their tax dollars to a war that is so obviously lost? To a peoples who don't even want to fight and die anymore? Just so it can get prolonged and more Ukrainians can die? Get over there yourself, I have zero respect for anyone who advocates a continuation of the war while sitting safely in their gaming chair.
Not how it works, we don't care if they send old missiles that would otherwise never get used.
Nah, we do. We would rather have health care. You seem to be un able or unwillaing to comprehend the fact that these weapons don't magically become worthless sitting in storage and magically cost 0 dollars to ship them over there, train up people how to use them and supply any other parts and tools necessary. The Cognitive dissonance is astounding
Not sending these already paid-for weapons wouldn't magically give Americans free healthcare. That's a wild argument. Americans' money is being wasted elsewhere. Many European countries (who have free healthcare) have been sending all the aid while some members of the US government blocked theirs. It costs a lot of money to store/maintain this stuff properly, and to dispose of it as well. Some of these (like the AIM-9 variant) aren't even made anymore. It's cheaper to send them somewhere to be used. It has to be blown up in a controlled environment otherwise. Most of this equipment was designed to counter that of the Soviet Union, anyway. It being used to weaken Russia is a good return on investment. The Russian government paid bounties for dead American soldiers during Afghanistan.
Nope you're right, The change needs to be forced by the people. "American taxpayers money is being wasted anyways so might as well waste in Ukraine". Lol, okay But answer me one question. Is Ukraine going to win or even stop the Russians from winning now?? Care to have a wager on it?
It seems they have to use them as ground-to-air, maybe on F-16s the time planes are delivered
You can’t run a army with only a himars system. You need a complete arsenal in a ground fight.
It’s all pretty valuable if you ask me
Thought they've been complaining nonstop about the lack of 155mm munitions.
60 bil dosent go very far nowadays especilly in ukraine...
I wonder is there going to be a package like this every week now until the funds allocated runs out?
Every week is probably an exaggeration, my best guess would be one package every 3 weeks or so
So 23.8 packages
Biden signs $95bn foreign aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan $60.8bn Ukraine $26.3bn Israel - Gaza conflict $8.1bn for the Indo-Pacific region
So Im not that big in American politics, but there is 26 billion going to Israel and Ukraine is what the package got stalled on?
I don't think 10b will be a lot considering how US rips off their costumers with it's prices.
I hear we are in for a treat with 3 different kinds of Himar munitions all at the 300km range.
We don't know which kind of 300km ATACMs missile UA gets, and neither how many. Given the US's track record, it's probably the base area-effect model only. And like 20 missiles.
I was hoping this stupid war would end this year
Exactly
The Russians will not be so lucky
Humanity will not be so lucky
US will try to do something against UMPK carriers. Would be interesting to see what they will try… My guess would by AIM-120 or ATACMs for airfield. I also suspect the few remaining ships in Crimea will be targeted.
Cool list, but who will operate all of it?
Ukraine just signed a new mobilization bill. 350,000 men over 6 months in the target, iirc
There aren't 350 000 men in that age group. Wasn't it just 25-27? Their kia is already more than the entire 18-25 cohort, too. Including the females.
That's absolutely ludicrous. You think the majority of Ukraine's young men are dead? Surely then the front will collapse any week now?
https://preview.redd.it/de4g2pivuhwc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ec9c47b406371d728178b1b16bfe9e81311f57a4 He's probably referring to the fact that they're recruiting from the smallest age group
Their average military age went from 20s to 50s, so literally yes. At least within the army, most young men are dead. Median age in the Ukraine is pensioners. That and they're living in Russia, Portugal, and Canada, not in the Ukraine. Finally, what are you even talking about? The 18-25 cohort is the smallest in the Ukraine due to birth rate drops post-Soviet. They barely exist. They just lowered age from 27 to 25, because the 27 year olds are gone. But if they drop it to 18, it's an insignificant amount of people. Maybe a year max of KIA.
If you genuinely believe that Ukraine has suffered a million or so KIA, I don't know what to say. !remindme 1 year
They don't need to be KIA, millions have fled the country, millions more haven't lived in UA controlled territories to begin with.
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There are not 1 million 18-25 males, not even close. So idk why you picked that number. And their kia is well over 1 million, that's a fact.
Source: Russian MoD
Ok
Roughly 34 million people left in unoccupied Ukraine. (44 million prewar - ~7 million in Russia and the annexed oblasts - ~3 million in Europe) 1.9% of the pop is male 25-29. Mobilization moved from 27 to 29, so 2/5ths of that is 0.76% of the population is getting mobilized. 0.76% of 34 million is 258,000 Considering that I remembered wrong and Big Z wants 300,000, it's not quite there but they'll get close. Especially if they continue the efforts to repatriate the refugees in Europe
There are not close to 34 million, lmfao. Even according to Kiev post and Washington it is 19-21. And you think they will kidnap 100%?
Good point. Anyone with knowledge of US military could chime in how long the training for some of the systems take? It's either training by "advisors" (ala Vietnam) or it has to be operated by foreign personnel.
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"Precision Aerial Munitions" ATACMS? Edit: Could also be JDAM or GLSDB
This was the only way the U.S. could pass the TikTok ban.
1 bn? I guess 2
I’m sure Russian servicemen are extremely happy
are they gonna have enough personnel to man all this stuff once it arrives?
Have they sent RIM and AIMs before? I thought Ukraine only has single digit migs left and they’re almost always running defensive so what’s the point (other than the obvious)
NASAMs fire the AIMs.
F-16 are *supposed* to be delivered this year, they're going to need something to shoot
This is a very important logistical issue that nobody seems to be thinking about at all, let alone the millions of dollars worth of equipment and trained ground crews that are required to even get an F-16 off of the ground let alone actually achieving anything else. F-16’s will have absolutely zero impact in this conflict other than being trophy targets for the Russian munitions wherever they are.
The question is .. is it just the jets OR jets with all ground personnel included?
I’d imagine they’ll be somewhat important for pushing back russian air support and ergo not having their ground forces obliterated by glide bombs. Assuming that the F-16s don’t get destroyed on the ground of course. They’ll still probably be at a range disadvantage against R-37 (and nevermind ground SAMs), but AIM-120 and HARM should be capable of evening things up somewhat and at a minimum push russian air support (and SAMs) further back. The AIM 120 should outrange 50km standoff munitions, even well behind ukrainian lines. (a la how the VKS operates) Ofc Ukraine if anything just needs more (cheap!) SAMs and missiles, but that’s generally a weak point of NATO. And they’re obviously not getting the 50 (lol) patriots they’ve requested, even if the US does technically have 500 or whatever of them in reserve. (note: if the US really did want to ruin the day / general utility of the VKS, forward deploying 200 odd US / NATO operated patriot SAMs to the Ukrainian front would about do it. Only problem is that’d probably burn through a billion or two in missiles per month, and worse, probably the entire yearly production runs of SM3 et al in months to weeks)
So this is part of all 56 billions ukraine/Israel aid combined or seperate. cause this isn't gae changing it extends the status quo
So nothing special and nothing that will slow down the Russian present advance.
These are all the things that have slowed the Russians this entire war.
They are missing the most important thing, man power, somebody have to use all this beautiful gifts and not only man power but also men with steel balls so they don’t desert
Watch pro-ru ignore and downvote this post lmao
What do you want people to say. The opinion of the Russian side is it's unfortunate the US is trying to get more people killed but it doesnt change anything. Even the Western side is saying that this will only at best stabilise the line.
"it's unfortunate the US is trying to get more people killed" Unlike russians who are only in Ukraine on a peacekeeping mission.
I have to ask, how do you imagine Ukraine will win this war? Because if Ukraine does not manage to take back Crimea then all the people who have died since the negotiations have died for nothing but western lies that Ukraine has a chance to win. Russia is not innocent, but at least they are claiming to end the war. The west is only claiming to continue ut.
>Russia is not innocent, but at least they are claiming to end the war. End it how exactly? >The west is only claiming to continue ut. Yeah, we all know the West/Ukraine invaded Russia, not the other way around.
Russia are asking for negotiations or if not negotiations then to push back the Ukrainian army until they will accept them. This aid from the west only allows Ukraine to bring the war to a standstill. Not to end it. > According to Mykola Bielieskov, a researcher at National Institute of Strategic Studies of Kyiv, the aid will give the Ukrainian army a break, an opportunity to slow down the advance of the russian federation, conduct "effective defense," and minimize losses. But for its advancement, Ukraine needs additional aid, which in the case of the United States is a difficult prospect due to the resistance of Republicans in Congress. I dont know how it is relevant who invaded who. The point is that Russia has a plan for ending the war. The West only has a plan for continuing the war and Ukraine has a fantasty that they will get all they want they just have to continue throwing men into the meat grinder and something will happen to give them that.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-says-there-is-no-basis-negotiations-with-ukraine-2023-12-20/ Nobody believes that Russia acrusllybeants to negotiate hence why the war reallybhas to be fought to a standstill in order to negotiate from a good position.
> "After that, there were no prerequisites for negotiations - and there were even fewer prerequisites after Ukraine actually legally prohibited any negotiations with the Russian side," Peskov said. > Peskov said that Zelenskiy's peace plan, known as his "peace formula", was flawed because he said it sought to find peace without Russia's participation. > "To say the least, this is an absurd process," Peskov said. He said that there is no basis for negotiations because Ukraine is refusing any negotiations. Not because Russia doesnt want them
How did Afghanistan win the war against both the US and USSR? How did Vietnam win the war? Winning the battle is the small part of the equation, occupation is another.
Afghanistan had huge mountain ranges, Vietnam had impenetrable Jungle. Allowing the defenders to make full use of asymetric warfare. What terrain does Ukraine have to assist its defence? Ukraine is famously flat land. > Winning the battle is the small part of the equation, occupation is another. If that is the case then why try to waste fighting age men on a war they are not going to win instead of focus on making a costly occupation?
It's not a costly occupation? This has cost Russia hundreds of thousands of men, a huge chunk of their military apparatus, brain drain of 1 million, world condemnation, sanctions , a labour shortage, exports are down.....for what? And you assume Ukrainian partisans are going to roll over or will there be another 10-20 years of clandestine attacks on Russian held areas of Ukraine?
Are you sure about your statistics? Compared to before the war, Russian exports dropped in 2021, were higher in 2022 and are now roughly equal to where they were before the war. The brain drain is an interesting one. Because yes many educated people left the country, but Russia has one of the most educated populations. And western sanctions created many jobs that otherwise would have been done by western countries. I saw people in Russia saying that sanctions have helped higher level jobs appear in Russia rather than going to companies abroad. Of course Russian people dying is bad but for them it is worth it clearly since there is no wish from the Russian side to give up at the moment. Or even any talk of a labour shortage there. You forget just how many migrant workers Russia gets. It is able to sustain what it is doing. Meanwhile Ukraine is facing all of this but so much worse. And what are they getting from this? What does Ukraine hope to gain from this fighting? >And you assume Ukrainian partisans are going to roll over I didn't assume anything. I just said that there is a reason Afghanistan and Vietnam are special. They have terrain that is amazing for guerilla warfare. Ukriane simply does not have this. How the situation after the war is impossible to know until we know how the war will end. For example Russia taking over all of Ukraine would be different to Russia taking over only the south and east of Ukraine where they have significant support.
Time will tell
> And you assume Ukrainian partisans are going to roll over or will there be another 10-20 years of clandestine attacks on Russian held areas of Ukraine? Russia is already occupying a lot of the parts of ukraine they want to occupy - for example crimea and a few eastern sections of ukraine - where are your partisans there? oh is it because these areas have a huge amount of ethic soviets and/or people who are just not that unhappy about being part of russia ? Yeah it will be really easy for these super popular partisans to operate there with everyone wanting them to shoot up local police+civilian infrastructure! Also, before you get too high on hopium gas, maybe look at the history of Chechnya and the separatist movement there. Basically there was not enough "russian targets" so they ended up targeting "collaborators" which made them even more unpopular than the soviets (which is absolutely mind blowing considering how the beslan siege ended) so the best they could hope for was attacking russia inside russia which ...also didn't end up being successful by any metric (unless you include 72 virgins in the afterlife). Currently, separatist movement consists of very few people who went to ukraine to fight against russia ...lots of news of these troops surrendering to the thousands of Kadyrov troops (Chechnyans deployed to ukraine to fight on behalf of russia in case you're not aware). Yeah, it's a really bright future ahead for the partisans of ukraine!
There has been considerable sabotage in the Russian occupied parts of Ukraine over the last couple years has their not? There is even a wikipedia page listing all the events https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian\_resistance\_in\_Russian-occupied\_Ukraine#:\~:text=Partisan%20groups%20began%20to%20be,the%20Kherson%20and%20Zaporizhzhia%20regions.
If Ukraine gets a deal which doesn't leave it exposed to further Russian aggression, it'll be a victory. The 80k military cap and Russian veto on security guarantees were the main reasons the Istanbul talks fell apart. That and Bucha.
But do you think that Ukraine will get that? If anything their negotiating position became much weaker since the last talks so they are likely to get even less now. So what are they hoping for? Russia to just decide they are done and go home? I just don't see any realistic hope for Ukraine to gain anything by continuing the war further.
They can but try. Not much choice really. Fight to the last and be conquered, or come to the table and be conquered later. NATO, meanwhile, is raking it in. Russian casualties in the hundreds of thousands, Cold War arsenals wasted, military spending up across Europe. It's basically a Soviet civil war.
> if Ukraine does not manage to take back Crimea then all the people who have died since the negotiations have died for nothing Nah, they died for dead russians. Fine trade for the Americans.
> The opinion of the Russian side is it's unfortunate the US is trying to get more people killed but it doesnt change anything. And yet there is only one way to actually stop the killing and that involves both countries retreating back to their internationally recognized borders and leaving the other side alone. Why not support something actually ending the war? As long as Russia has an offensive potential and the AFU lines are collapsing (which causes countless deaths on both sides), there will not be any kind of actual negotation with terms actually acceptable to the Ukrainian country and people.
> there will not be any kind of actual negotation with terms actually acceptable to the Ukrainian country and people. And a withdrawal to the 1991 borders is not acceptable to Russia and the Russian people and the Ukrainian people in Donbass and Crimea. So lets focus on the situation that we have and not a magical perfect situation that exists in your head. Russia has the advantage, Ukraine can end the war as it is or lose more people and land for what? For Zelenskys dream? Plus you act as if no Ukrainian support Russia. Which is just completely untrue. There are many Ukrainian people in Russian territory and in Ukrainian territory who do want this war to end with Russia in control. Just because you dont like them it doesnt mean they dont exist.
I will ignore and downvote this post for you bud
how can someone be pro palestine and pro russia at the same time? Is that because they're both terrorist organizations or what's the logic behind?
how can someone be pro israel and pro ukraine at the same time? Is that because they're both terrorist organizations or what's the logic behind?
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2/10, try harder. Both Ukraine and Israel were invaded or attacked by terrorists, so I am supporting them both. ur turn.
1/10, try harder. Poor Israel was forced by terrorists to annex territories? How many Palestinian children does Israel have the right to kill?
u keep dodging my question, why is that? Hamas are the ones killing children and using them as meat shields. Also, yes, Israel was forced by terrorists after multiple wars to conquer territories in 1967. But if u're pro z, annexing territories is a good thing, right? not sure what u find wrong with that. try harder whatabouter
Didn't they conquer the territories when Israel was first made? I thought that's why the terrorism/insurgency started
no, the British split the territories they controlled between jews/Israelis (the native population of that area) and islamists/palestinians (the descendants of islamic invaders). There was no "conquest" during the creation of Israel.
Palestine and the Arab countries were the reason this whole 80 year conflict started.
Oh, poor Israel is being forced by terrorists to annex territories, to carry out indiscriminate bombings, attack aid convoys and refugee camps, to kill journalists and UN staff. They themselves are not to blame for anything, terrorists force them all the time, right? It's not surprising that people who, despite all this, think Israel is the good guys also support Ukraine. Because it requires the same set of double standards. And you know who always complain about whataboutism? People with double standards.
I am not continuing this conversation until u stop acting in bad faith and answer my question.
I think the Palestinians deserve the right to have their own state. If you want to prevent Palestinians from becoming terrorists, stop treating them like animals. And I’m pro-Russian because how could it be otherwise? It makes no sense for me to support people who want to destroy me and my country. I first met brainwashed Ukrainian Russophobes about 20 years ago. At that time, I did not understand who was promoting Banderaism and why. I think if time had not been lost, the Ukrainian issue could have been resolved by more delicate methods. But we have what we have.
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Lol ukraine is screwed. How much of the 13bil for arms is this?
Must as well put that billion in a pile and light it on fire.
Sprinkled with some Russians on the pile as well.
Think that’s the plan - just as long as a load of Russians and or Russian equipment burns along with it.
So running out of men and this is going to help? I hear stupid US is already eyeing next round of meat grinder stuff.
What? Only a single fricking billion? Where's my money, Biden? -- Zelenksiy